Through my first analysis, I have told you that trading for Braylon Edwards was a waste. And all Jets fans who saw Edwards drop easy passes that fell in his lap get dropped came around to what I told them. But cheer up baby birds, I'm about to chew up some analysis and spit some knowledge in your mouth (too graphic?), you got Edwards part II.
Last year, Holmes collected 1248 yards on 79 receptions (138 targets) good for a 15.8 YPR (yards per reception). Holmes was 10th in DYAR (roughly measures total value) and 21st DVOA (roughly measures value per play). However, it's his 57% catch rate that worries me. Out of the top 15 players last year (according to FO DYAR), there are three receiver with a catch rate under 61% (besides Holmes, A. Johnson and C. Ochocinco) and Holmes (along with Ochocinco) rank last out of the top 15 players in catch rate. 32 of the top 45 players had a better catch rate than Holmes. In fact, Holmes has a career 55% catch rate.
Despite Holmes low catch rate however, he does do pretty darn good things when he gets the ball. He was tied for second in the league last year for plays 20+, had no fumbles, 5th in first downs and still was at minimum a top 15 wide out (despite his slight inefficiencies). And at only 27 years old and only four years in the league, he is very very good.
And he is absolutely no doubt better than Jerricho Cotchery and David Clowney.
Because Santonio Holomes is better than probably any current Jets receiver, he will make young Mark Sanchez better. So let's take a look at Big Ben and the Sanchize's numbers to see how Holmes will actually produce in the Meadowlands
Over the past three years, 24.4% of Big Ben's passes went towards Holmes and he has caught 12.7% of Big Ben's total passes while Holmes was in Pittsburgh. While those numbers seem low, that's not THAT bad considering how many passes any QB throws that don't get caught and how many players any QB has to distribute the ball to.
However, these low stats do become important because as little attempts as Big Ben has, the Sanchize will have even less. Big Ben has averaged 462 attempts over the past two years and Sanchez had 364 attempts in 15 games. Now while Sanchez will most likely get more attempts and get better- the number of passes he'll throw to Holmes will decrease thus decreasing the overall value of Holmes- at least for the 2010 season.
Last year, about 15.9% of Sanchez' passes went to his RBs, 21.4% went to Braylon Edwards, 26.6% went to Jerricho Cotchery, 22.3% went to Dustin Keller, and about 13.8% went to other receivers.
So based off of Sanchez' past numbers, percentages, improvement, and Holmes' catch rate, let's see what we can predict Holmes, at least for 2010.
If we generously say Sanchez gets more attempts and gets better accuracy (which he showed at the end of the 2009 season), let's generously say Sanchez gets 400 attempts (up from his 364 in 15 games in 2009). Let's say Edwards gets about 22% of Sanchez' passes and say Holmes (based upon Holmes' talent and what he did in Pittsburgh) gets 25% of Sanchez' throws. Thats means Holmes should get about 100 passes thrown his way.
So if we include Holmes' career catch rate, that means Holmes should get only about 55 catches- way below his 2009 mark, but right along his '06-'08 rate. Add his career 16.3 YPR rate, that means Holmes should get only around 900 yards- with maybe about 5 TDs (falls along with his career average and a crappier QB). But when you include the four game suspension- I'll say he gets about 675 yards with 4 TDs.
Now Holmes is still young and took a huge step forward so I can easily foresee my prediction that Holmes will regress will not come true. But I think a lot of Holmes' value came from Big Ben's career year and with a young and improving QB at the helm throwing to two drop heavy receivers does not bode well for the team. But hey, it was only a 5th round draft pick and the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets have still improved.
For an analysis on the Brandon Marshall trade, click here
5 comments:
I love Holmes as a player. I would say he is a notch above ochocinco and a notch below Marshall. What I hate is the QB throwing him the ball. If you thought Big Ben was overrated, just wait for the suckiness that is Mark Sanchez next year.
I was never down on Big Ben because of his accuracy, I was down on him because it's easy to have the accuracy that Ben has because he throws so little.
But, as much as it pains me to say it, Ben proved me wrong last year by throwing well with a weak(er) ground game and him having a butt-load of attempts
But that's my point- Holmes produces good number via the Braylon Edwards way- getting a lot of targets. I don't like Big Ben and I absolutely don't like Sanchez (for 2010 at least) which will affect Holmes' overall numbers
But I agree with you completely that he's a notch below Marshall and above Ochocinco.
While doing this research, I noticed something else- Andre Johnson, slightly overrated. Gets a SHIT TON of balls thrown his way and has average to above average efficiency- but that's for another post.
the best player on any team is going to have a ton of passes thrown his way whether he can catch them or not. it's DME's favorite law. the law of averages states that the greater the number of trials(passes to one WR) the more the catch percentage deviates to the average. Hence why Steve Breaston can lead the league in catch percentage. If he has as many balls thrown his way as Holmes, his catch rate would probably dip even lower than Holmes rate
I agree, but there are guys who get a lot of balls thrown their way AND catch them efficiently. Or there are players who catch them inefficiently but can do crazy awesome things when they get the ball (a la Andre Johnson)
But I'm not comparing guys like Steve Breaston to Holmes, I'm comparing Holmes to guys to the elite guys- guys who get a lot of passes thrown their way. And obviously possession receivers (Welker) are going to have a better catch rate than deep threat guys (Moss)- but Holmes is not a deep threat guy (at least not to the extent that the elite guys like Moss are).
But guys like Vincent Jackson (109), Randy Moss (137), Miles Austin (124), Reggie Wayne (149), and Sidney Rice (121) just to name a few all have catch rates in around 61-67%.
Santonio Holmes was t-8th last year in targets. That's gives you a bis enough sample size to truly judge how well he catches the ball. The sole job of a receiver to catch the ball when it comes to him and he's not that good at it.
Now if I was talking about Mario Manningham (71%)- then yes you're argument holds true. But throughout Holmes' career, he is does not have a good catch rate.
Holmes has some fantasy value and he'll out up some decent numbers, but with an average YPC, low catch rate, and fewer attempts- I think the Jets are not going to get the player they wanted.
P.S. Steve Breaston had a 67% catch rate- nowhere near the close to the top. The leader (shockingly) is Wes Welker (76%).
You got big time props from www.ffspin.com. I think they have a man crush. Great article. Seriously, I have never seen someone make projections based on facts rather than guestimates. How long until the Jets have too many bad actors spoiling their chemistry. Sanchez may just have to target the WR that is not taking the play off. His read progression is going to based on mood in the huddle.
Post a Comment