Analyzing the Braylon Edwards Trade

Maybe I'm making a bold prediction similar to what DME did with Alex Rios, but I don't think Braylon Edwards is very good, and I don't think he really boosts the Jets offense.

Edwards had a fantastic season in 2007 when he caught 80 passes for over 1275 yards and 16 TDs. But what has he done since? We've all heard the ESPN stats how he leads the league in drops. His Y/R has gone down this '07 along with his receptions. In fact, in four full seasons, Edwards has only gone over 900 yards once- in '07. To me Edwards is having the Roy E. Williams effect. Williams had one amazing season in Detroit. Then he gets traded to Dallas and is expected to be a superstar, only to be a dud

So let's analyze Edwards and see what we can find.

I think an important stat to look at is catch rate. How often can a receiver catches the ball when it is thrown to him. I like this stat because that's a huge part of all a receiver has to do- catch a ball thrown to him.

In his awesome break out year in 2007, he only caught 52% of the passes that came to him. Sure he had 80 receptions, but 153 targets! The next year his targets dropped to a mere 138, only he only caught 40% of those passes. That means that 3 times out of five, when a pass came towards Edwards, he did not catch it. 40% is an awful catch rate, and I don't care who is throwing you the ball. This year, Edwards has improved his catch rate to 45%. I think we can safely conclude, that Edwards does not have the best hands, and I think it's safe to say Edwards can not do a fundamental skill of being a wide out well.

Even in Edwards amazing season, he has not been very efficient with the ball. In 2007, he ranked 24th in DYAR and 40th in DVOA. The next year he ranked 77th and 73rd respectively. This year, he ranks 47th and 48th respectively. This means, that in the past 2+ seasons, Braylon Edwards per play he has been awful compared to the average receiver in a similar situation (DVOA) and been awful compared to other players in similar situations where he did catch the ball (DYAR).

However, I am a firm believer that a good to great QB can make a wide out better (ala Jay Cutler and Hester, Bennett, and Knox). I was going to make a lofty comparison to how good Derek Anderson has been in '07 compared to how well they are now and Mark Sanchez as well, however I think this year's statistics help prove my point well. Sanchez ranks 2nd to last among all QBs this year according to football sabermetrics (aka efficiency). Two spots ahead of him in Derek Anderson and three spots ahead of him is Brady Quinn. Essentially, Quinn, Anderson, and Sanchez have been awful this year- and essentially are the same player.

So with all this data, I don't see the Braylon Edwards trade a success for the Jets. He has bad hands, he is inefficient trying to make plays and when he has the ball in his hands. Plus, he still has a shitty QB throwing to him. All this hype of the Jets getting a "playmaker" and Edwards helping the Jets seems like it will be a failure.

However, this year, Chansi Stuckey has been one of the few players worse than Edards this year.


Dan said...

In my opinion, Edwards just sounds like one of these athletes who is never going to be happy unless he's putting big numbers (like T.O). He'll help the Jets but will eventually complain his way out of town there too. I wrote about this on my website as well. I'd love to get your feedback

All the best,

rakeback said...

I think Braylon needed a change of scenery, so this should be beneficial for both parties.