Showing posts with label Playoff Prediction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Playoff Prediction. Show all posts

Sexy Rexy's 2011 NFL Mega Playoff and End-Of-The-Year Award Post

PLAYOFF PICTURE

NFC

Wild Card Round

(6) Detroit Lions def. (3) New Orleans Saints
(4) New York Giants def. (5) Atlanta Falcons

Divisional Round

(1) Green Bay Packers def. (6) Detroit Lions
(2) San Fransisco 49ers def. (4) New York Giants

Championship Game

(1) Green Bay Packers def. (2) San Fransisco 49ers

AFC

Wild Card Round

(5) Pittsburgh Steelers def. (4) Denver Broncos
(3) Houston Texans def. (6) Cincinnati Bengals

Divisional Round

(5) Pittsburgh Steelers def. (1) New England Patriots
(2) Baltimore Ravens def. (3) Houston Texans

Championship Game

(2) Baltimore Ravens def. (5) Pittsburgh Steelers

SUPERBOWL

Green Bay Packers def. Baltimore Ravens

Best _____ In The Playoffs

DEFENSES

1) San Fransisco 49ers
2) Houston Texans
3) Pittsburgh Steelers
4) Baltimore Ravens
5) New York Giants
6) Green Bay Packers
7) Cincinnati Bengals
8) Denver Broncos
9) Detroit Lions
10) New Orleans Saints
11) Atlanta Falcons
12) New England Patriots

QUARTERBACKS

1) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2) Tom Brady (NE)
3) Drew Brees (NO)
4) Eli Manning (NYG)
5) Matthew Stafford (DET)
6) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) (only because of injury)
7) Matt Ryan (ATL)
8) Andy Dalton (CIN)
9) Alex Smith (SF)
10) Joe Flacco (BAL)
11) Tim Tebow (DEN)
12) T.J. Yates / Jake Delhomme (HOU)

COACHES

1) Bill Belichick (NE)
2) Mike McCarthy (GB)
3) Sean Peyton (NO)
4) Jim Harbaugh (SF)
5) Tom Coughlin (NYG)
6) Jim Schwartz (DET)
7) Mike Tomlin (PIT)
8) John Harbaugh (BAL)
9) John Fox (DEN)
10) Mike Smith (ATL)
11) Gary Kubiak (HOU)
12) Marvin Lewis (CIN)

RUNNING BACKS

1) Arian Foster (HOU)
2) Ray Rice (BAL)
3) Frank Gore (SF)
4) Ben Tate (HOU)
5) Darren Sproles (NO)
6) Tim Tebow (DEN)
(just kidding)
6) Cedric Benson (CIN)
7) Michael Turner (ATL)
8) Pierre Thomas (NO)
9) Willis McGahee (DEN)
10) Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG)
11) Ryan Grant (GB)
12) Kevin Smith (DET)


RECEIVERS

1) Calvin Johnson (DET)
2) Mike Wallace (PIT)
3) Jordy Nelson (GB)
4) A.J. Green (CIN)
5) Victor Cruz (NYG)
6) Rob Gronkowski (NE)
7) Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
8) Roddy White (ATL)
9) Wes Welker (NE)
10) Antonio Brown (PIT)
11) Marques Colston (NO)
12) Jimmy Graham (NO)
NOTE: If Greg Jennings is healthy I would rank him 6th between Green and Cruz

END OF THE YEAR AWARDS

MVP: Aaron Rodgers (GB)

Rookie Of The Year

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton (CAR)
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Von Miller (DEN)
Special Teams Rookie of the Year: Patrick Peterson (ARI)

Sophomore of the Year

Offensive Sophomore of the Year: Rob Gronkowski (NE)
Defensive Sophomore of the Year: Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG)

Defensive Player of the Year: Patrick Willis (SF)

Comeback Player of the Year: Steve Smith (CAR)

Offensive Player Of The Year (Besides Rodgers): Tom Brady (NE)

The Murky AFC Wild Card Picture

On a recent podcast, Cubsfan and myself discussed how we thought the playoff picture would shake out after seven weeks of football. This led Cubsfan and myself to a Board Bet. I believe the AFC Wild Cards will come from only the AFC North or AFC East. Cubsfan thinks the loser of the Houston/Tennessee division (in his mind Tennessee) can get a wild card. Either way, I think the wild card is completely up in the air. So who will earn a wild card birth? This post is dedicated to evaluating which team will get a birth and which will not. Below is the order of teams I believe have the greatest odds of getting that coveted 5th and 6th seed (i.e. the first team is the team I think has the greatest odds of getting a wild card spot and the last team is my team with the lowest "realisitc" chances of getting a wild card birth)

1) Buffalo Bills

Everyone I have talked to believes the Bills are getting at least one of the wild card spots

Pro

The Bills are currently second in the AFC East at 4-2. They only need to go 5-5 the rest of the way to get to nine wins which would put them in the wild card hunt. They play two games against Miami, one game versus the Denver Broncos and one game versus the Washington Redskins. That's essentially four wins right there.

They do play the New Jets twice, the Titans, the Cowboys, and at Chargers (in December). None of those are easy wins but only the Chargers really scare me. I think beating at least one of those teams is pretty realistic.

But even assuming the Bills lose all five of those games, that would put them at 4-5 going into Week 17- at the New England Patriots. I think the Pats will have far and away locked up the #1 seed in the AFC and thus take it easy on the Bills to allow Buffalo to squeak into the playoffs at minimum with a 9-7 record.

The Bills have one of the easiest schedule this year which I believe will propel them into the playoffs.

Con

The Bills have a pretty bad defense (ranked 23rd in points per game allowed and 31st in yards per game allowed) and they have been winning games with their offense solely. This could be a problem come November and December. Fred Jackson is a beast and will be awesome all season but there's a reason Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting his first full season at the age of 28. Fitzpatrick has a pretty weak arm and this caused him to falter down the stretch last year and he's starting to do the same this year. If Buffalo's offense starts to fail and its defense continues to play like it does, then it won't matter how easy their schedule is because they will not be winning games.

2) Cincinnati Bengals

I personally believe the Bills will get the last wild card spot

Pro

I like the Bengals set up this year and a blog post is soon to come (hopefully) about how I am a fan of them this year.

The Bengals have a damn good defense, can run the ball pretty well, and Andy Dalton hasn't been a complete disaster this year. To me, the Bengals are set up like the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens: Great defense, can run the ball, and have a QB who's not turning the ball over like Jay Cutler in his first season in Chicago.

This year the Bengals rank 4th in the NFL in points allowed per game. When you have a stingy defense like that, then you're setting yourself up for good things to come. Cedric Benson has been pretty effective this year as well. While not lighting up the league like Fred Jackson or Matt Forte has this year, he's been solid and consistent. Plus, his suspension is only for one game.

The Bengals, like the Bills, also have a pretty easy schedule.

They still have to play Seattle, Cleveland, St. Louis, and Arizona which I believe is a guaranteed four wins right there. Plus, they also play Houston at home; while, to me, that is not a guaranteed win, is a game they very easily could win.

Con

The biggest thing holding the Bengals back is that they play in the same division as the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers. All three of these teams only have two loses and all three of these teams a) face the NFC West and b) face each other. Cincy still has to play Baltimore twice and face the Steelers in Heinz Field. Not only can I see the Bengals losing all three games but because those teams are obviously division rivals could force Cincy into a deficit that they can't crawl out of.

Plus, while I kind of like the play of Andy Dalton and Cedric Benson this year, the Bengals still only rank 21st in rushing yards and 20th in passing yards.

Lastly, while the Bengals rank 3rd in the in points allowed, Baltimore and Pittsburgh rank 1st and 2nd respectively.

3) Pittsburgh Steelers

I personally believe the Steelers will not make the playoffs this year

Pro

The biggest pro is that they're winning their division at 5-2 (However the Steelers have not had their bye and Baltimore and Cincy have. All teams have 2 loses but the Steelers have an extra win). The Steelers still have an amazing defense though (as I mentioned earlier they are second in the AFC in terms of points allowed per game to opposing teams) and they still have this little guy called Ben Roethlisberger.

Con

The first Con is the Steelers schedule. They have already played Seattle and Arizona- two teams the Cincinnati Bengals have not played. The Steelers have a pretty tough schedule the rest of the way. They have to face the New England Patriots next week (1. even though the Steelers are at home, Tom Brady's Patriots own Rosethlisberger's Steelers in Pittsbugh and 2. the Bengals do not have to play the Pats) as well as the Bengals away, the Ravens at home, at San Francisco, and at Arrowhead. They do get the Cleveland Browns twice and get the St. Louis Rams at home but that schedule is tougher than the Bengals.

I also do not trust the Steelers defense. I know they have not allowed a lot of people to score and there are actually first in terms of passing yards allowed, but I just don't trust them. It may be an irrational thought, but this Steelers defense seems weak (well, at least weaker than it historically has been) and beatable.

Lastly, I think this offense will falter down the stretch- mainly because of their terrible offensive line. I know that team has Big Ben and Rahsard Mendenhall and my boy Mike Wallace, but there's a certain level of confidence that I just don't have of those guys because of that terrible O-line. Also, Mendenhall has been terrible this year. He ranks 44th in the NFL in terms of YPC with 3.7.

4) New York Jets

I never trusted the Jets to make it to the playoffs. In an earlier podcast, when Cubsfan and I were first going through the AFC and predicting who will get a wild card spot, I immediately said the Jets would not make it. I later predicted the Jets to get a wild card spot but I said it with disgust and only out of default (If Peyton Manning was healthy this year I would have predicted the Texans to get a wild card spot over the Jets originally).

Pro

The Jets have made it to the AFC Championship two years in a row. The core of those two teams is still in place and they still have Rex Ryan at the helm (despite what you may think if him because of press conferences or whatnot, he still is a great defensive coach and damn fine head coach).

The Jets also have to play the Buffalo Bills twice and despite how much I like the Bills, the Jets can realistically win both of those games. That will give the Jets a four game advantage over the Bills and put them in the driver's seat to make it into the playoffs.

Con

This defense is just not the same as it was the past two years. They are 14th in the NFL in terms of points allowed behind teams like the Chicago Bears, Seattle Seahawks, and Cleveland Browns. You can also run on the Jets, which means once you take any sort of lead (which is not hard to do considering the Jets offense) it's a lot easier than before to keep it. Before, the Jets could overcome their offense because of their stingy defense, but that's just not true this year.

And speaking of the Jets offense, they have a quarterback who can't throw effectively and a running back who can't run effectively. While Mark Sanchez is not right now a bottom five quarterback, I would rather have Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Blaine Gabbert, or Christian Ponder to start my franchise than Mark Sanchez. Sanchez is a QB with accuracy issues- which never bodes well for the QB position. Shonn Greene has also been pretty bad this year with his 3.8 YPC- good for 43rd in the NFL.

5) Oakland Raiders

I believe now that Jason Campbell has gone down and now that Antonio Gates is playing that the San Diego Chargers are going to win the AFC West.

Pro

Because the Bills and Jets are in the same division and that Bengals and Steelers are in the same division that they could beat up on each other so that the Raiders can sneak into a spot. They also have this little guy named Darren McFadden that can take over games.

Con

I don't think the Raiders are as good of a team as the first four I mentioned. They have an average to below average defense and I don't think their quarterback play against the Chiefs in Week 7 was THAT big of a fluke. Carson Palmer will be their quarterback for the rest of the season and he has had no time to become acclimated to their system or get a feel for their receivers. While McFadden can take over games, Carson Palmer can lose games.

6) Houston Texans/Tennessee Titans

I know the Texans just defeated the Titans in Week 7 and won big but with Gary Kubiak as their coach, with the way they've played the past two season, and with Mario Williams out for the year and Andre Johnson out for a significant amount of time, I don't think it's lock that the Texans will win this division.

I don't think the loser of this division will get a wild card spot. As of right now the Texans have the 4th seed in the AFC (the worst of all division winners) and the Tennessee Titans are 10th. I just can't wrap my head around the fact that second place in the AFC South can have a better record than any team I just mentioned.

7) Baltimore Ravens

The reason I have the Ravens as the lowest of all these teams is because I believe they will win the division and I believe they are the second best team in the AFC. I know they just lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars, but they also have the best defense in the league and I can not imagine a scenario where the Steelers and Bengals make it to the playoffs and the Ravens do not. Plus, they have a top three running back in the game in Ray Rice- who is a better running back than anyone any of these teams mentioned in this post have (except for maybe Arian Foster in Houston).

Worthless Playoff Predictions: 2010 NFL

Here's an excerpt of what I wrote on Twitter last Thursday, two days before the NFL playoffs began:
Playoff prediction: Every road NFL team wins this weekend, with the EXCEPTION of the Seahawks
While I misspoke and meant to say every road team but the Saints will win (because Seattle was the home team), I correctly predicted all four playoffs games for the Wild Card weekend. Let's see if I can do the same for the rest of games.

Conference Round


(2) Chicago def. (4) Seattle
(6) Green Bay def. (1) Atlanta

(1) New England def. (6) New York
(5) Baltimore def. (2) Pittsburgh

Divisional Round


(2) Chicago def. (6) Green Bay

(1) New England def. (5) Baltimore

Super Bowl

New England Patriots def. Chicago Bears

Playoff Predictions

My 2010 NFL Playoff Predictions

Wild Card Round:
(5) New York Jets def. (4) Cincinnati Bengals
(6) Baltimore Ravens def. (3) New England Patriots

(6) Philadelphia Eagles def. (3) Dallas Cowboys
(5) Green Bay Packers def. (4) Arizona Cardinals

Divisional Round:
(1) Indianapolis Colts def. (6) Baltimore Ravens
(2) San Diego Chargers def. (5) New York Jets

(6) Philadelphia Eagles def. (1) New Orleans Saints
(2) Minnesota Vikings def. (5) Green Bay Packers

Championship Round:
(2) San Diego Chargers def. (1) Indianapolis Colts
(2) Minnesota Vikings def. (6) Philadelphia Eagles

Superbowl:
Minnesota Vikings def. San Diego Chargers

As much as I hate to see Brett Favre win another ring, I think he will this year

Also, keep in mind that predictions are still worthless. I can not predict the future and I will probably be wrong

Worthless Baseball Postseason Predictions

Now that the baseball has officially ended, it's time now for the post season. Here are my prediction for how I think the playoffs will shake out. Oh, and just like everyone on ESPN, I'm sure to be wrong about this

ALDS
Yankees def. Twins in 3
Red Sox def. Angeles in 4

NLDS
Cardinals def. Dodgers in 4
Phillies def. Rockies in 5

ALCS
Red Sox def. Yankees in 7

NLCS
Cardinals def. Phillies in 6

World Series
Cardinals def. Red Sox in 5

World Series MVP: Mark DeRosa

The Greatest NFC Playoff Run EVER!

How fortuitous that right after I do a brief NFC North post when I was bored, that I come across an SI article predicting every single division, how the playoffs will shake out, and the scores of those games. I wrote a post long long ago back in the day of GOI's origins about just how dumb magazines making predictions are, especially considering they are going to, for a fact, not even be close. Injuries will occur and teams we thought would finish in the cellar will rise to win their division and we'll all throw away all the predictions we had in the beginning of the year (except for the stupid "analysts" who will pick a team only because "they picked them at pre-season" instead of, you know, doing actual analysis and watch games and base teams off of that). And even though I have made meaningless NFL predictions, I fully admit I will be wrong.

But back to the SI article. They say the Bears will go 12-4, win their division, and get the #2 overall seed in the NFC. But the kicker, is that the Viking and Packers will get the 5th and 6th wild card spots, respectively.

This will make for the best NFC playoff run ever.

You see, for the Viking and Packers both win their first weeks while the Bears have a bye. Then the Bears will face the Vikings and beat them. THEN, in the NFC Championship game, the Bears will face the Packers, and of course punch their chesseheads in.

ANDwhileUNFORTUNATELYtheBEARSwillLOSEinTHEsuperbowlTOtheDOMINANTnewenglandPATRIOTS, according to Sports Illustrated, the Bears will have a monster NFC playoff run.

I hope SI is right because that would be AMAZING, but now I just read this article and laugh.

Maxim Magazine and Sports- An Oxymoron

So at the beginning of the year I bought a Maxim magazine for a school project (I swear it's for this advertising class I'm in. I have a computer, I'd use that instead of waste my money if I wanted to look at hot girls) Anyway, they have this whole section dedicated to the NFL. They have their own NFL Prediction and they created an "All-Maxim Team" where they mentioned certain players and have little interviews with them (they also have interviews with some hot cheerleaders too 'Oh, I'm going to college right now to be a marine biologist" Sure you are sweetie, you're taking classes after football games and before you strip at nightclubs... Anyway, I'm digressing here.)

My point is this (actually I have two). What does it take to really be considered in the "All Maxim Team"? I guess they try and get the best player available at each position? But if that was the case, then why are players like Chris Cooley (TE), Ben Roethlisberger (QB), Haloti Ngata (D) (Wait, his position is "D", what they fuck is that short for? He just plays defense? What!?), Al Harris (CB), Leonard Davis (OG), and Matt Birk (C) considered for this list. I mean they're GOOD, but are they the very best at their position, probably not.
Here are some of the qualifications I think it takes to be on the "All Maxim Team"
1) You have to be available to actually sit down, take a picture, and kind of sort of talk with a Maxim "reporter" (and I use the term reporter loosely)
2) You have to like to look at hot women. Not necessary fuck them, just look at them. With something, just a little bit, covering, all their private parts
3) YOU HAVE TO BE A MAN!
4) You have to look good in a bathing suit randomly running down a sandy beech with a hot girl sunbathing in the distance...
5) You have to have a story that is kind of funny to you and your teammates but when you tell it to a Maxim "reporter" you just sound like a retard

Secondly, what does it take to be an football expert writing for Maxim? Here's the bracket of how they predicted the 2008/2009 season playoffs to shake out

AFC:
1) New England Patriots
2) Indianapolis Colts
3) San Diego Chargers
4) Pittsburgh Steelers
5) Jacksonville Jaguars
6) Cleveland Browns

(BTW, this is what the 2007/2008 AFC picture looked expect replace Cleveland with Tennessee Titans)

Round One: Pittsburgh beats Jacksonville and San Diego beats Cleveland.
Round Two: New England beats Pittsburgh and Indianapolis beats San Diego
Round Three: New England beats Indianapolis

(apparently Maxim is full of pussies and predict no upsets. Maxim, pussies, get it? It's irony)

NFC:
1) Dallas Cowboys
2) New Orleans Saints
3) Green Bay Packers
4) Seattle Seahawks
5) Philadelphia Eagles
6) Arizona Cardinals

Round One: Arizona beats Green Bay and Philadelphia beats Seattle
Round Two: New Orleans beats Philadelphia and Dallas beats Arizona
Round Three: Dallas beats New Orleans

(Ooooh, and upset in the first round! Two of them! Going bold Maxim, Go-ing bold!)

Superbowl: New England beats Dallas

(apparentely only two upsets will occus throughout the ENTIRE playoffs and both will happen in the first round of the NFC playoffs)

So here's what the playoffs are GOING to look like (pretty much)

AFC:
1) Tennessee Titans
2) Pittsburgh Steelers
3) New York Jets/ New England Patriots/Miami Dolphins
4) Denver Broncos
5) Indianapolis Colts
6) Baltimore Ravens

NFC:
1) New York Giants
2) Carolina Panthers
3) Minnesota Vikings
4) Arizona Cardinals
5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6) Atlanta Falcons/ Dallas Cowboys

(the order may not be exactly like this because the Carolina Panthers could miracously run the table and get the #1 NFC spot but don't be be too shocked to see the real playoff order turn out like this)

Good job Maxim. Way to really be on the ball on this one. Way to really tell the vast majority of your readers what they didn't already think would happen and gave great insight to predicting the future! Fucktards.