On a recent podcast, Cubsfan and myself discussed how we thought the playoff picture would shake out after seven weeks of football. This led Cubsfan and myself to a Board Bet. I believe the AFC Wild Cards will come from only the AFC North or AFC East. Cubsfan thinks the loser of the Houston/Tennessee division (in his mind Tennessee) can get a wild card. Either way, I think the wild card is completely up in the air. So who will earn a wild card birth? This post is dedicated to evaluating which team will get a birth and which will not. Below is the order of teams I believe have the greatest odds of getting that coveted 5th and 6th seed (i.e. the first team is the team I think has the greatest odds of getting a wild card spot and the last team is my team with the lowest "realisitc" chances of getting a wild card birth)
1) Buffalo Bills
Everyone I have talked to believes the Bills are getting at least one of the wild card spots
Pro
The Bills are currently second in the AFC East at 4-2. They only need to go 5-5 the rest of the way to get to nine wins which would put them in the wild card hunt. They play two games against Miami, one game versus the Denver Broncos and one game versus the Washington Redskins. That's essentially four wins right there.
They do play the New Jets twice, the Titans, the Cowboys, and at Chargers (in December). None of those are easy wins but only the Chargers really scare me. I think beating at least one of those teams is pretty realistic.
But even assuming the Bills lose all five of those games, that would put them at 4-5 going into Week 17- at the New England Patriots. I think the Pats will have far and away locked up the #1 seed in the AFC and thus take it easy on the Bills to allow Buffalo to squeak into the playoffs at minimum with a 9-7 record.
The Bills have one of the easiest schedule this year which I believe will propel them into the playoffs.
Con
The Bills have a pretty bad defense (ranked 23rd in points per game allowed and 31st in yards per game allowed) and they have been winning games with their offense solely. This could be a problem come November and December. Fred Jackson is a beast and will be awesome all season but there's a reason Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting his first full season at the age of 28. Fitzpatrick has a pretty weak arm and this caused him to falter down the stretch last year and he's starting to do the same this year. If Buffalo's offense starts to fail and its defense continues to play like it does, then it won't matter how easy their schedule is because they will not be winning games.
2) Cincinnati Bengals
I personally believe the Bills will get the last wild card spot
Pro
I like the Bengals set up this year and a blog post is soon to come (hopefully) about how I am a fan of them this year.
The Bengals have a damn good defense, can run the ball pretty well, and Andy Dalton hasn't been a complete disaster this year. To me, the Bengals are set up like the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens: Great defense, can run the ball, and have a QB who's not turning the ball over like Jay Cutler in his first season in Chicago.
This year the Bengals rank 4th in the NFL in points allowed per game. When you have a stingy defense like that, then you're setting yourself up for good things to come. Cedric Benson has been pretty effective this year as well. While not lighting up the league like Fred Jackson or Matt Forte has this year, he's been solid and consistent. Plus, his suspension is only for one game.
The Bengals, like the Bills, also have a pretty easy schedule.
They still have to play Seattle, Cleveland, St. Louis, and Arizona which I believe is a guaranteed four wins right there. Plus, they also play Houston at home; while, to me, that is not a guaranteed win, is a game they very easily could win.
Con
The biggest thing holding the Bengals back is that they play in the same division as the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers. All three of these teams only have two loses and all three of these teams a) face the NFC West and b) face each other. Cincy still has to play Baltimore twice and face the Steelers in Heinz Field. Not only can I see the Bengals losing all three games but because those teams are obviously division rivals could force Cincy into a deficit that they can't crawl out of.
Plus, while I kind of like the play of Andy Dalton and Cedric Benson this year, the Bengals still only rank 21st in rushing yards and 20th in passing yards.
Lastly, while the Bengals rank 3rd in the in points allowed, Baltimore and Pittsburgh rank 1st and 2nd respectively.
3) Pittsburgh Steelers
I personally believe the Steelers will not make the playoffs this year
Pro
The biggest pro is that they're winning their division at 5-2 (However the Steelers have not had their bye and Baltimore and Cincy have. All teams have 2 loses but the Steelers have an extra win). The Steelers still have an amazing defense though (as I mentioned earlier they are second in the AFC in terms of points allowed per game to opposing teams) and they still have this little guy called Ben Roethlisberger.
Con
The first Con is the Steelers schedule. They have already played Seattle and Arizona- two teams the Cincinnati Bengals have not played. The Steelers have a pretty tough schedule the rest of the way. They have to face the New England Patriots next week (1. even though the Steelers are at home, Tom Brady's Patriots own Rosethlisberger's Steelers in Pittsbugh and 2. the Bengals do not have to play the Pats) as well as the Bengals away, the Ravens at home, at San Francisco, and at Arrowhead. They do get the Cleveland Browns twice and get the St. Louis Rams at home but that schedule is tougher than the Bengals.
I also do not trust the Steelers defense. I know they have not allowed a lot of people to score and there are actually first in terms of passing yards allowed, but I just don't trust them. It may be an irrational thought, but this Steelers defense seems weak (well, at least weaker than it historically has been) and beatable.
Lastly, I think this offense will falter down the stretch- mainly because of their terrible offensive line. I know that team has Big Ben and Rahsard Mendenhall and my boy Mike Wallace, but there's a certain level of confidence that I just don't have of those guys because of that terrible O-line. Also, Mendenhall has been terrible this year. He ranks 44th in the NFL in terms of YPC with 3.7.
4) New York Jets
I never trusted the Jets to make it to the playoffs. In an earlier podcast, when Cubsfan and I were first going through the AFC and predicting who will get a wild card spot, I immediately said the Jets would not make it. I later predicted the Jets to get a wild card spot but I said it with disgust and only out of default (If Peyton Manning was healthy this year I would have predicted the Texans to get a wild card spot over the Jets originally).
Pro
The Jets have made it to the AFC Championship two years in a row. The core of those two teams is still in place and they still have Rex Ryan at the helm (despite what you may think if him because of press conferences or whatnot, he still is a great defensive coach and damn fine head coach).
The Jets also have to play the Buffalo Bills twice and despite how much I like the Bills, the Jets can realistically win both of those games. That will give the Jets a four game advantage over the Bills and put them in the driver's seat to make it into the playoffs.
Con
This defense is just not the same as it was the past two years. They are 14th in the NFL in terms of points allowed behind teams like the Chicago Bears, Seattle Seahawks, and Cleveland Browns. You can also run on the Jets, which means once you take any sort of lead (which is not hard to do considering the Jets offense) it's a lot easier than before to keep it. Before, the Jets could overcome their offense because of their stingy defense, but that's just not true this year.
And speaking of the Jets offense, they have a quarterback who can't throw effectively and a running back who can't run effectively. While Mark Sanchez is not right now a bottom five quarterback, I would rather have Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Blaine Gabbert, or Christian Ponder to start my franchise than Mark Sanchez. Sanchez is a QB with accuracy issues- which never bodes well for the QB position. Shonn Greene has also been pretty bad this year with his 3.8 YPC- good for 43rd in the NFL.
5) Oakland Raiders
I believe now that Jason Campbell has gone down and now that Antonio Gates is playing that the San Diego Chargers are going to win the AFC West.
Pro
Because the Bills and Jets are in the same division and that Bengals and Steelers are in the same division that they could beat up on each other so that the Raiders can sneak into a spot. They also have this little guy named Darren McFadden that can take over games.
Con
I don't think the Raiders are as good of a team as the first four I mentioned. They have an average to below average defense and I don't think their quarterback play against the Chiefs in Week 7 was THAT big of a fluke. Carson Palmer will be their quarterback for the rest of the season and he has had no time to become acclimated to their system or get a feel for their receivers. While McFadden can take over games, Carson Palmer can lose games.
6) Houston Texans/Tennessee Titans
I know the Texans just defeated the Titans in Week 7 and won big but with Gary Kubiak as their coach, with the way they've played the past two season, and with Mario Williams out for the year and Andre Johnson out for a significant amount of time, I don't think it's lock that the Texans will win this division.
I don't think the loser of this division will get a wild card spot. As of right now the Texans have the 4th seed in the AFC (the worst of all division winners) and the Tennessee Titans are 10th. I just can't wrap my head around the fact that second place in the AFC South can have a better record than any team I just mentioned.
7) Baltimore Ravens
The reason I have the Ravens as the lowest of all these teams is because I believe they will win the division and I believe they are the second best team in the AFC. I know they just lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars, but they also have the best defense in the league and I can not imagine a scenario where the Steelers and Bengals make it to the playoffs and the Ravens do not. Plus, they have a top three running back in the game in Ray Rice- who is a better running back than anyone any of these teams mentioned in this post have (except for maybe Arian Foster in Houston).
Showing posts with label Baltimore Ravens. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Baltimore Ravens. Show all posts
Joe Flacco Update
For some reason Joe Flacco is my boy. I don't really like him all that much. In my quarterback rankings (post soon to come) I ranked Flacco 13th. But for some reason I have been following his career and posting about it. So why not write one more.
In the offseason before the 2010 NFL season began, the Ravens traded for Anquan Boldin. Therefore, I wrote a post predicting how well Flacco and the other receivers would do. This is what I predicted for Flacco before the season:
I kind of think that the numbers Flacco put up this year are the numbers that he'll put up for his career. I think he'll have about a 63% completion percentage (63.1 in 2009, 62.6 in 2010) and he'll throw for about 485-500 times (499 in 2009, 489 in 2010).
Before I predicted Flacco's numbers I predicted his wide outs numbers. Anquan Boldin has had a great career so I predicted his numbers to fall in line partially with what he did in the past. By doing so that naturally raised Flacco's numbers (who I thought would improve and continue to develop as he got another year of experience under his belt).
Another major assumption that I made was that Anquan Boldin would be Flacco's number one target. Throughout Flacco's short career he's had a clear cut number one guy and a clear cut number two guy. It turns out that split was mainly because of the talent of Mason and Mark Clayton and not because of the system or how Flacco throws or what-have-you. While Boldin was technically Flacco's number one target with 108, Mason was not far behind with 100. Here's what I predicted for Anquan Boldin:
Another big problems with my prediction/actuality split was that Boldin had one of the worst catch rates of his career. In 2009 and 2008, Boldin caught 71% of his passes. He only caught 59% of them in 2010. The lack of targets and catching his targets drastically decreased Boldin's numbers which seems to me shows a sign of lack of talent. Or maybe he was just in a new system and had an outlier year because of it. Whatever the reason was, it was a huge difference to why my Flacco prediction was so off.
Here's what I predicted for Derrick Mason:
I did however hit Mason's catch rate (61%) right on the nose.
I did however guess incorrectly Mason's YPR. I should have averaged out in 2009 and 2008 campaign (which would have given me 13.5 YPR which was closer to the 13.1 Mason actually got as opposed to be 14.0 I gave him as opposed to adding that third year. But so is life.). However, for fantasy purposes, because of his increases in targets he far exceeded my expectations of him and he did well for anyone that drafted him.
Here's what I predicted for TE Todd Heap:
Last, but not least, we have Ray Rice. I pegged him as the third best running back in fantasy (behind CJ and AD) and I sincerely apologize for that. I paid 70 dollars for him in one league and he severely disappointed me. I really don't know why the decrease in his production from what I thought but here's what I predicted for Rice:
Here's how Flacco's targets broke down in 2010:
Boldin: 22%
Mason: 20%
Rice: 16.8%
Heap: 16.3%
Houshmandzadeh: 11.8%
McGahee/McClain: 9.0%
Other Receivers: 6.7%
Top 2 Receivers: 42.5%
RBs: 25.8%
Heap: 16.3%
Other Receivers:
RBs: 18.6%
As what the head of BP/DP kept saying throughout the Coon and Friends three parter of South Park last season, "Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry."
In the offseason before the 2010 NFL season began, the Ravens traded for Anquan Boldin. Therefore, I wrote a post predicting how well Flacco and the other receivers would do. This is what I predicted for Flacco before the season:
515 attempts, 345 completions, 4031 yards, 25 TDs, 11 INTs, 6 fumbles, 55 rushing attempts, 200 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs.These were pretty ballsy numbers, mainly considering Flacco had never thrown for over 4000 yards in a season or thrown over 500 attempts. Here's the numbers Flacco did end up with:
489 attempts, 306 completions, 3622 yards, 25 TDs, 10 INT, 9 fumbles, 43 rushing attempts, 84 rushing yards, 1 TD.I predicted a 25/11 TD/INT ratio for Flacco and he ended up with a 25/10 ratio so I think that's pretty damn impressive. But I also thought Flacco would throw it a bit more and thus get more yards. I thought the addition of Boldin would improve Flacco's numbers. But it did not.
I kind of think that the numbers Flacco put up this year are the numbers that he'll put up for his career. I think he'll have about a 63% completion percentage (63.1 in 2009, 62.6 in 2010) and he'll throw for about 485-500 times (499 in 2009, 489 in 2010).
Before I predicted Flacco's numbers I predicted his wide outs numbers. Anquan Boldin has had a great career so I predicted his numbers to fall in line partially with what he did in the past. By doing so that naturally raised Flacco's numbers (who I thought would improve and continue to develop as he got another year of experience under his belt).
Another major assumption that I made was that Anquan Boldin would be Flacco's number one target. Throughout Flacco's short career he's had a clear cut number one guy and a clear cut number two guy. It turns out that split was mainly because of the talent of Mason and Mark Clayton and not because of the system or how Flacco throws or what-have-you. While Boldin was technically Flacco's number one target with 108, Mason was not far behind with 100. Here's what I predicted for Anquan Boldin:
130 targets, 92 receptions, 1100 yards, 9 TDs, 3 fumbles, 4 carries, 40 yards, 0 TDsNow right off the bat you should be able to tell that my prediction was way off because I thought he would get 130 targets and he only got 108. Here's Boldin's numbers on the year:
108 targets, 64 receptions, 837 yards, 7 TDs, 1 fumble, 2 carries, 2 yards, 0 TDsWell at least I correctly predicted Boldin wouldn't get any rushing touchdowns.
Another big problems with my prediction/actuality split was that Boldin had one of the worst catch rates of his career. In 2009 and 2008, Boldin caught 71% of his passes. He only caught 59% of them in 2010. The lack of targets and catching his targets drastically decreased Boldin's numbers which seems to me shows a sign of lack of talent. Or maybe he was just in a new system and had an outlier year because of it. Whatever the reason was, it was a huge difference to why my Flacco prediction was so off.
Here's what I predicted for Derrick Mason:
85 targets, 52 receptions, 730 yards, 5 TDs, 1 fumble, 1 carry, 2 yards, 0 TDs.I have a pretty good system in how to calculate targets but a poorer way ho to calculate catch rate and an even poorer way still to calculate yards per reception. Mason has had a sporadic catch rate and YPR the past three years as I pointed out in my original post. Here's the numbers Mason actually did get:
100 targets, 61 receptions, 802 yards, 7 TDs, 0 fumbles, 0 carries.While Mason's targets did take a huge drop with the addition of Boldin (He averaged a shade under 140 the past few years compared to the 100 he got in 2010) my 85 prediction was WAY too low.
I did however hit Mason's catch rate (61%) right on the nose.
I did however guess incorrectly Mason's YPR. I should have averaged out in 2009 and 2008 campaign (which would have given me 13.5 YPR which was closer to the 13.1 Mason actually got as opposed to be 14.0 I gave him as opposed to adding that third year. But so is life.). However, for fantasy purposes, because of his increases in targets he far exceeded my expectations of him and he did well for anyone that drafted him.
Here's what I predicted for TE Todd Heap:
80 targets, 52 receptions, 588 yards, 4 TDs, 0 fumbles, 2 carries, 18 yards.Here's what Heap ended up with in 2010:
64 targets, 40 receptions, 599 yards, 5 TDs, 0 fumbles, 0 carries.Considering Heap had the best YPR of his entire career and by far did anything better than he's ever done, I think my fantasy prediction of him was pretty damn spot on.
Last, but not least, we have Ray Rice. I pegged him as the third best running back in fantasy (behind CJ and AD) and I sincerely apologize for that. I paid 70 dollars for him in one league and he severely disappointed me. I really don't know why the decrease in his production from what I thought but here's what I predicted for Rice:
290 carries, 1505 rushing yards, 8 TDs, 2 fumbles; 100 targets, 77 receptions, 658 yards, 2 TDs.Here's what Rice ended up with:
307 carries, 1220 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs, 0 fumbles, 82 targets, 63 receptions, 556 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD.In the past, Flacco's success has arisen because of his quick dump offs to his running backs so the decrease in the touches as I predicted for Rice and the decrease in the amount of passing yards I predicted to Rice was a huge factor in my poor prediction of Joe Flacco.
Here's how Flacco's targets broke down in 2010:
Boldin: 22%
Mason: 20%
Rice: 16.8%
Heap: 16.3%
Houshmandzadeh: 11.8%
McGahee/McClain: 9.0%
Other Receivers: 6.7%
Top 2 Receivers: 42.5%
RBs: 25.8%
Heap: 16.3%
Other Receivers:
RBs: 18.6%
As what the head of BP/DP kept saying throughout the Coon and Friends three parter of South Park last season, "Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry."
Projecting The Baltimore Offense
It's June, so you know what that means! Football posts!
I live in Chicago. I'm a huge football fan and I love the Chicago Bears. But I also have been criticized for being a huge Chicago homer. This is extremely valid and true. But I'd also like to think I know a lot about the league as a whole. A fellow co-worker of mine is from Maryland so we were having a rousing discussion about the Baltimore Ravens. We were talking about my boy Ray Rice and that crushing Baltimore D. And I like Baltimore. I LOVE that running game and trying to figure out Joe Flacco. And ever since my groundbreaking Santonio Holmes post, I wanted to see how Anquan Boldin would fit into this young, up and coming offense. So, to try and dispel my Windy City bias, get everybody to know the name Ray Rice, and to see how good Joe Flacco really is, here's how I project the Baltimore offense to perform next year.
The best and basic analysis to project any established wide out is this simple equation: (Targets * Catch Rate(CR) = Receptions) * Yards Per Reception (YPR) = Yards. As mentioned in the landmark book The Hidden Game of Football, touchdowns can not be predicted. You can predict how a team moves down the field to get a TD. But the actual play and player that gets the TD can not be predicted. They are like R and RBI's in baseball, you just have to see how good the player is, look at the team around him, and look at what the player has done in the past.
In fantasy football, you can look to see how good a player is, but that skill set can only translate into fantasy success if that player actually gets attempts, whether that's carries for a running back, attempts for a quarterback, or targets for a wide receiver. The best example of this was Pierre Thomas. Last year, the dude did really good things when he had the rock. But that didn't translate into fantasy success because Sean Peyton was dumb and "needed to distribute" carries (as well as prescription drugs) between Thomas, Reggie Bush, and Mike Bell. So I can tell you how good a player actually is, but that won't mean diddly unless they get the attempts to go along with their skill. However, for wide receivers, targets can be better projected based upon how the quarterback has thrown the ball in the past and how many targets the receiver has gotten in the past.
Here's a break down of Joe Flacco's targets the past two years ('08, then '09):
#1 Receiver: 121, 132
#2 Receiver: 82, 74
#3 Receiver: 23, 49
Todd Heap: 64, 75
Ray Rice: 43, 103
Other RBs: 52, 49
Other Receivers: 42, 17
Over the past two years, Flacco's #1 target has been the underrated Derrick Mason and his #2 has been Mark Clayton. But with the addition of Boldin, this makes Boldin #1, Mason #2, and Clayton #3. And Flacco's targets to his #1 wide out have been decently consistent with Boldin's targets the past two years (126 and 127 respectively). Therefore, I predict Boldin to get 130 targets next year. It's just a tick more than he's gotten in his career, but he's now a team's #1 (not #2) wide out and this is consistent with how Flacco throws the ball. Unfortunately, Mason probably will not get as many targets as he did in the past because he'll now be the #2 and not 1 receiver. Based upon how Flacco has thrown the ball, I predict mason will get 85 targets. You can argue that the reason so little targets is thrown to the #2 receiver because Clayton sucks and doesn't deserve as many looks, but with Mason in the two hole, he should be able to get open more (with teams having to cover both him and Boldin). My counter is that 1) I did account for Mason getting open more by giving him 85 targets 2) The fact is Boldin is better and will get more passes thrown his way which automatically takes away from Mason's targets 3) As we will see later, giving Mason more targets does not really fall in line with Joe Flacco's progression and 4) Why are you arguing with my during my own post! Let me speak woman! And yes, it is impressive that a woman knows football. Oh, sexism. But I digress. So here's my full projection for the rest of the team
Anquan Boldin
For the past two years, Boldin has had a catch rate of exactly 71%. I predict him to get 130 targets and if he catches 71% of those targets, he'll catch 92 passes. Over the past three seasons Boldin has had a pretty consistent YPR of 12.0. So if Boldin has 92 receptions and averages 12 yards per reception, he'll get 1,100 yards.
Now his touchdowns become tricky to predict. He had 12 two years ago and 4 last year. Just because he's Flacco's #1 target does not mean he'll be Flacco's #1 target for touchdowns. As I did my rough analysis per player and was very conservative of my analysis, I gave Boldin 8 TDs. But as I added up the amount of TDs I gave per player, it only added up to 19 TDs. Last year Flacco threw 21 and I think he gets better. So I was nice and added a TD to everybody, including Boldin of course.
I base his fumbles and runs upon what Boldin have done in recent years. In fact, I'll do this for every player from now on.
Final Projection on Anquan Boldin: 92 receptions, 1100 yards, 9 TDs, 3 fumbles; 4 carries, 40 yards, 0 TDs.
Derrick Mason
I think Derrick Mason is the biggest loser in the Boldin trade. I think his targets go down and with that, so goes his fantasy value. If Mason only gets 85 targets, I predict he only gets 52 catches because of catch rate. Now, over the past three seasons Mason's CR is pretty sporadic from 54% last year to 67% the year before. But if you average out his three year CR (now I'm doing an average so I can see Mason catching a few more passes or he could catch a few less than I predict), it comes to 61.3%. Mason also has a sporadic YPR for the past three years. Yet despite his age, his YPR is a three year increase (10.6, 12.9, and 14.1 from 2007 to 2009 respectively). So I'll give Mason the benefit of the doubt and say he has a 14.0 YPR. Multiply that by his 52 catches and you get 730 yards.
Unfortunately, a decrease in targets probably means a decrease in touchdowns. Surprisingly not necessarily (Mason had 5 TDs in 103 receptions in 2007 and 7 TDs in 73 receptions last year), but if you think about it logically the more passes come your way, the more times you catch the ball which leads to a greater propensity to score a TD (although remember that one pass Mason had at the end of last year where he dropped an easy TD pass in his lap?). However, Mason seems to always seems to get five a year and when you factor Flacco getting better throwing more TDs (I'm sorry for the build up but Flacco analysis will come at the end) and how random TDs are, I'll give Mason five.
Final Projection on Derrick Mason: 52 receptions, 730 yards, 5 TDs, 1 fumble; 1 carry, 2 yards, 0 TDs
Ray Rice
I love Ray Rice. The dude can run VERY well and is a great pass catcher. What's not to love? He's also a big reason for Flacco's success. The dude caught more passes than Derrick Mason last year! Anyways, a lot of targets combined with Rice's high catch rate (I mean how hard is it to dump it off to your running back) and speed means a lot of good things for Flacco.
Rice got 103 targets last year and there's no reason to think that won't continue. I'll say Rice gets an even 100. Combine that with his 77% CR (he's caught 77% the past two seasons, again, it's a dump off to the H-back) and that's a cool 77 receptions for Rice. Combine that with his average 8.6 YPR (8.8 and 8.3 YPR for the past two years respectively; and I think 8.6 is a tad too low) and you get 658 receiving yards. He got one receiving TD and since I'm inflating everybody's TD total because I think Flacco will be better, I'm giving Rice two.
And since we're on the subject of Rice, now's as good of time as any to discuss how amazing of a runner he is. Last year the dude was 6th in yards, 7th in YPC, the 4th best fantasy RB, and he's young and improving. In fact, Willis McGahee, through the first 6 games, HURT Rice's fantasy value. McGahee got 5 rushing TDs and took carries away from Rice (who by the way, was averaging a tick over 12 and had two 100+ yard games). Before the Ravens bye (at Week 7), Rice was averaging 12.167 Carry Per Game (CPG). After the bye (and presumably after Ravens head coach John Harbaugh realized what a gift from G-d he had on his hands), Rice averaged 18.1 CPG. If you take the 18.1 CPG and expand that to all 16 games, that's about 290 carries. Add Rice's 5.2 YPC (He's only had one full season and last year he had 5.3 YPC so I'm giving him 5.2. Oh, BTW, he had a 6.5 YPC in his two post season appearances) and you get 1505 yards for Rice. He had 7 TDs last year and presumably McGahee doesn't take too many away (although realistically he'll take about 2 or 3 away) plus Rice's growth and I'll say Rice gets 8 TDs.
Because I feel it's worth mentioning, Rice had no fumbles through his first 11 games but 3 in his last five
Final Projection on Ray Rice: 290 carries, 1505 Yards, 8 TDs, 2 fumbles; 77 receptions, 658 yards, 2 TDs
Todd Heap
With Flacco seemingly looking for Heap a bit more, I predict 80 targets for Heap, five more than he got last year (Again, with the improvement of Flacco + Flacco looking a lot at his TE and RBs more, I think this is a fair prediction). Over the past three years, Heap's CR has been more over the place than Lindsay Lohan (is she still relevant?). He had 71% last year but a meager 55% the year before. Predicting Heap's CR is like predicting John Travolta's movie choices, sometimes it's awesome and sometimes is just awful (although not the best analogy because Travolta's had way more Old Dogs than Pulp Fictions recently. Whatever, moving on). Because of this randomness, I just took Heap's three year average and got: 64.6%. So if he catches 64.6% of Flacco's 80 targets, that's 52 catches for Mr. Travolta, er, Heap. Lindsay Lohan. Alrighty then.
52 catches combined with his rather consistent (hmmm, how about a Dark Knight director Christopher Nolan reference here? Memento, Batman Begins, The Prestige, and Inception looks awesome) YPC (which he's averaged 11.3 YPC over the past three years) and you get 588 yards for Heap. Lindsay Lohan.
Based upon his recent (non)fumbling problems, TD catches, and runs and I predict for Todd Heap…
Final Projection on Todd Heap: 52 receptions, 588 yards, 4 TDs, 0 fumbles; 2 carries, 18 yards
Lindsay Lohan
Mark Clayton
Mark Clayton should be not owned in any fantasy football leagues next year. Hell, as the Ravens #2 receiver last year he probably shouldn't have been owned. But because of past "success" and just because, here's what I think Clayton will do next year (I promise you it's based after the same analysis as the other players)
Final Projection on Mark Clayton: 25 receptions, 352 yards, 2 TDs
Lindsay Lohan. What? The joke was really bad and old the first time around? OK, got it!
Other Running Backs and Receivers
No one else (besides Flacco) is worth owning on the Ravens. Sure, Willis McGahee provided some fantasy value last year, but since the emergence of Ray Rice and Baltimore seemingly only going with a one back approach (which I love) since the bye, I don't see McGahee, or anyone else for that matter, getting consistent playing time that they should be on your team (assuming health of course). But for the sake of Flacco's numbers and just because everyone else was so statistically insignificant that for the sake of argument, I think Flacco will throw the same to these randoms this year as he did last year.
Final Projections on Everyone Else: 70 receptions, 379 yards, 3 TDs
Now, LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLE! After all the hype. After reading really bad Lindsay Lohan jokes. It's now time for the main event!
Joe Flacco
Two years ago, in his rookie year. Joe Flacco threw 428 attempts for 257 completions (60.0 comp %), 2971 yards, 14 TD, 12 INT, and 6 fumbles. While the INTs and fumbles stayed exactly the same a year later, everything else improved. Last year, Flacco threw 499 attempts for 315 completions (63.1 comp %), 3613 yards, and 21 TDs. His YPA and passer rating also increased. These numbers plus the addition of Anquan Boldin suggests Joe Flacco's in for a very good year and for an improvement.
If you add in all the receivers' targets and completions that means Flacco will throw 515 times for 345 completions. That's good for a 67.2% completion percentage. And when you add up everyone's yards, that means Flacco will throw for 4,031 yards-a career high for him. This is also part of the reason I do not think Mason will get more than 80 targets but if he gets 100+ targets like he normally does, then Flacco will be the best QB next year and while I think he will improve, I don't think to Peyton Manning's level. These current predictions (based upon how the receivers will do) seems to fall in line what an increase in Flacco's improvement from last year. Maybe a bit better than what I would have thought from my gut, but NUMBERS DON'T LIE!
Over the past two years (obviously based upon the numbers I gave you) Flacco has increased his TD% and lowered his INT%. Flacco jumped .09% (which is actually a lot) in his TD%. Now it's extremely hard to try and predict what Flacco's TD% will be next year based after only his first two years, but I think Flacco gets 25 TDs next year. That's good for a 4.85 TD% which is still a big increase from his totals last year and is consistent with the career TD% of Drew Brees (and better than Eli Manning's). With this as the basis for my analysis, Flacco has to throw the ball somewhere and that's where I got my TD totals above.
I'll say Flacco gets 11 INTs because that would mean an INT% decrease consistent with his improvement. And why not. If he gets better everywhere else, why not at throwing it to the other team as well.
Final Projection for Joe Flacco: 515 attempts, 345 completions, 4031 yards, 25 TDs, 11 INTs, 6 fumbles; 55 rushing attempts, 200 yards, 3 TDs
