Projecting The Baltimore Offense

It's June, so you know what that means! Football posts!

I live in Chicago. I'm a huge football fan and I love the Chicago Bears. But I also have been criticized for being a huge Chicago homer. This is extremely valid and true. But I'd also like to think I know a lot about the league as a whole. A fellow co-worker of mine is from Maryland so we were having a rousing discussion about the Baltimore Ravens. We were talking about my boy Ray Rice and that crushing Baltimore D. And I like Baltimore. I LOVE that running game and trying to figure out Joe Flacco. And ever since my groundbreaking Santonio Holmes post, I wanted to see how Anquan Boldin would fit into this young, up and coming offense. So, to try and dispel my Windy City bias, get everybody to know the name Ray Rice, and to see how good Joe Flacco really is, here's how I project the Baltimore offense to perform next year.

The best and basic analysis to project any established wide out is this simple equation: (Targets * Catch Rate(CR) = Receptions) * Yards Per Reception (YPR) = Yards. As mentioned in the landmark book The Hidden Game of Football, touchdowns can not be predicted. You can predict how a team moves down the field to get a TD. But the actual play and player that gets the TD can not be predicted. They are like R and RBI's in baseball, you just have to see how good the player is, look at the team around him, and look at what the player has done in the past.

In fantasy football, you can look to see how good a player is, but that skill set can only translate into fantasy success if that player actually gets attempts, whether that's carries for a running back, attempts for a quarterback, or targets for a wide receiver. The best example of this was Pierre Thomas. Last year, the dude did really good things when he had the rock. But that didn't translate into fantasy success because Sean Peyton was dumb and "needed to distribute" carries (as well as prescription drugs) between Thomas, Reggie Bush, and Mike Bell. So I can tell you how good a player actually is, but that won't mean diddly unless they get the attempts to go along with their skill. However, for wide receivers, targets can be better projected based upon how the quarterback has thrown the ball in the past and how many targets the receiver has gotten in the past.

Here's a break down of Joe Flacco's targets the past two years ('08, then '09):

#1 Receiver: 121, 132

#2 Receiver: 82, 74

#3 Receiver: 23, 49

Todd Heap: 64, 75

Ray Rice: 43, 103

Other RBs: 52, 49

Other Receivers: 42, 17

Over the past two years, Flacco's #1 target has been the underrated Derrick Mason and his #2 has been Mark Clayton. But with the addition of Boldin, this makes Boldin #1, Mason #2, and Clayton #3. And Flacco's targets to his #1 wide out have been decently consistent with Boldin's targets the past two years (126 and 127 respectively). Therefore, I predict Boldin to get 130 targets next year. It's just a tick more than he's gotten in his career, but he's now a team's #1 (not #2) wide out and this is consistent with how Flacco throws the ball. Unfortunately, Mason probably will not get as many targets as he did in the past because he'll now be the #2 and not 1 receiver. Based upon how Flacco has thrown the ball, I predict mason will get 85 targets. You can argue that the reason so little targets is thrown to the #2 receiver because Clayton sucks and doesn't deserve as many looks, but with Mason in the two hole, he should be able to get open more (with teams having to cover both him and Boldin). My counter is that 1) I did account for Mason getting open more by giving him 85 targets 2) The fact is Boldin is better and will get more passes thrown his way which automatically takes away from Mason's targets 3) As we will see later, giving Mason more targets does not really fall in line with Joe Flacco's progression and 4) Why are you arguing with my during my own post! Let me speak woman! And yes, it is impressive that a woman knows football. Oh, sexism. But I digress. So here's my full projection for the rest of the team

Anquan Boldin

For the past two years, Boldin has had a catch rate of exactly 71%. I predict him to get 130 targets and if he catches 71% of those targets, he'll catch 92 passes. Over the past three seasons Boldin has had a pretty consistent YPR of 12.0. So if Boldin has 92 receptions and averages 12 yards per reception, he'll get 1,100 yards.

Now his touchdowns become tricky to predict. He had 12 two years ago and 4 last year. Just because he's Flacco's #1 target does not mean he'll be Flacco's #1 target for touchdowns. As I did my rough analysis per player and was very conservative of my analysis, I gave Boldin 8 TDs. But as I added up the amount of TDs I gave per player, it only added up to 19 TDs. Last year Flacco threw 21 and I think he gets better. So I was nice and added a TD to everybody, including Boldin of course.

I base his fumbles and runs upon what Boldin have done in recent years. In fact, I'll do this for every player from now on.

Final Projection on Anquan Boldin: 92 receptions, 1100 yards, 9 TDs, 3 fumbles; 4 carries, 40 yards, 0 TDs.

Derrick Mason

I think Derrick Mason is the biggest loser in the Boldin trade. I think his targets go down and with that, so goes his fantasy value. If Mason only gets 85 targets, I predict he only gets 52 catches because of catch rate. Now, over the past three seasons Mason's CR is pretty sporadic from 54% last year to 67% the year before. But if you average out his three year CR (now I'm doing an average so I can see Mason catching a few more passes or he could catch a few less than I predict), it comes to 61.3%. Mason also has a sporadic YPR for the past three years. Yet despite his age, his YPR is a three year increase (10.6, 12.9, and 14.1 from 2007 to 2009 respectively). So I'll give Mason the benefit of the doubt and say he has a 14.0 YPR. Multiply that by his 52 catches and you get 730 yards.

Unfortunately, a decrease in targets probably means a decrease in touchdowns. Surprisingly not necessarily (Mason had 5 TDs in 103 receptions in 2007 and 7 TDs in 73 receptions last year), but if you think about it logically the more passes come your way, the more times you catch the ball which leads to a greater propensity to score a TD (although remember that one pass Mason had at the end of last year where he dropped an easy TD pass in his lap?). However, Mason seems to always seems to get five a year and when you factor Flacco getting better throwing more TDs (I'm sorry for the build up but Flacco analysis will come at the end) and how random TDs are, I'll give Mason five.

Final Projection on Derrick Mason: 52 receptions, 730 yards, 5 TDs, 1 fumble; 1 carry, 2 yards, 0 TDs

Ray Rice

I love Ray Rice. The dude can run VERY well and is a great pass catcher. What's not to love? He's also a big reason for Flacco's success. The dude caught more passes than Derrick Mason last year! Anyways, a lot of targets combined with Rice's high catch rate (I mean how hard is it to dump it off to your running back) and speed means a lot of good things for Flacco.

Rice got 103 targets last year and there's no reason to think that won't continue. I'll say Rice gets an even 100. Combine that with his 77% CR (he's caught 77% the past two seasons, again, it's a dump off to the H-back) and that's a cool 77 receptions for Rice. Combine that with his average 8.6 YPR (8.8 and 8.3 YPR for the past two years respectively; and I think 8.6 is a tad too low) and you get 658 receiving yards. He got one receiving TD and since I'm inflating everybody's TD total because I think Flacco will be better, I'm giving Rice two.

And since we're on the subject of Rice, now's as good of time as any to discuss how amazing of a runner he is. Last year the dude was 6^th in yards, 7^th in YPC, the 4^th best fantasy RB, and he's young and improving. In fact, Willis McGahee, through the first 6 games, HURT Rice's fantasy value. McGahee got 5 rushing TDs and took carries away from Rice (who by the way, was averaging a tick over 12 and had two 100+ yard games). Before the Ravens bye (at Week 7), Rice was averaging 12.167 Carry Per Game (CPG). After the bye (and presumably after Ravens head coach John Harbaugh realized what a gift from G-d he had on his hands), Rice averaged 18.1 CPG. If you take the 18.1 CPG and expand that to all 16 games, that's about 290 carries. Add Rice's 5.2 YPC (He's only had one full season and last year he had 5.3 YPC so I'm giving him 5.2. Oh, BTW, he had a 6.5 YPC in his two post season appearances) and you get 1505 yards for Rice. He had 7 TDs last year and presumably McGahee doesn't take too many away (although realistically he'll take about 2 or 3 away) plus Rice's growth and I'll say Rice gets 8 TDs.

Because I feel it's worth mentioning, Rice had no fumbles through his first 11 games but 3 in his last five

Final Projection on Ray Rice: 290 carries, 1505 Yards, 8 TDs, 2 fumbles; 77 receptions, 658 yards, 2 TDs

Todd Heap

With Flacco seemingly looking for Heap a bit more, I predict 80 targets for Heap, five more than he got last year (Again, with the improvement of Flacco + Flacco looking a lot at his TE and RBs more, I think this is a fair prediction). Over the past three years, Heap's CR has been more over the place than Lindsay Lohan (is she still relevant?). He had 71% last year but a meager 55% the year before. Predicting Heap's CR is like predicting John Travolta's movie choices, sometimes it's awesome and sometimes is just awful (although not the best analogy because Travolta's had way more Old Dogs than Pulp Fictions recently. Whatever, moving on). Because of this randomness, I just took Heap's three year average and got: 64.6%. So if he catches 64.6% of Flacco's 80 targets, that's 52 catches for Mr. Travolta, er, Heap. Lindsay Lohan. Alrighty then.

52 catches combined with his rather consistent (hmmm, how about a Dark Knight director Christopher Nolan reference here? Memento, Batman Begins, The Prestige, and Inception looks awesome) YPC (which he's averaged 11.3 YPC over the past three years) and you get 588 yards for Heap. Lindsay Lohan.

Based upon his recent (non)fumbling problems, TD catches, and runs and I predict for Todd Heap…

Final Projection on Todd Heap: 52 receptions, 588 yards, 4 TDs, 0 fumbles; 2 carries, 18 yards

Lindsay Lohan

Mark Clayton

Mark Clayton should be not owned in any fantasy football leagues next year. Hell, as the Ravens #2 receiver last year he probably shouldn't have been owned. But because of past "success" and just because, here's what I think Clayton will do next year (I promise you it's based after the same analysis as the other players)

Final Projection on Mark Clayton: 25 receptions, 352 yards, 2 TDs

Lindsay Lohan. What? The joke was really bad and old the first time around? OK, got it!

Other Running Backs and Receivers

No one else (besides Flacco) is worth owning on the Ravens. Sure, Willis McGahee provided some fantasy value last year, but since the emergence of Ray Rice and Baltimore seemingly only going with a one back approach (which I love) since the bye, I don't see McGahee, or anyone else for that matter, getting consistent playing time that they should be on your team (assuming health of course). But for the sake of Flacco's numbers and just because everyone else was so statistically insignificant that for the sake of argument, I think Flacco will throw the same to these randoms this year as he did last year.

Final Projections on Everyone Else: 70 receptions, 379 yards, 3 TDs

Now, LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLE! After all the hype. After reading really bad Lindsay Lohan jokes. It's now time for the main event!

Joe Flacco

Two years ago, in his rookie year. Joe Flacco threw 428 attempts for 257 completions (60.0 comp %), 2971 yards, 14 TD, 12 INT, and 6 fumbles. While the INTs and fumbles stayed exactly the same a year later, everything else improved. Last year, Flacco threw 499 attempts for 315 completions (63.1 comp %), 3613 yards, and 21 TDs. His YPA and passer rating also increased. These numbers plus the addition of Anquan Boldin suggests Joe Flacco's in for a very good year and for an improvement.

If you add in all the receivers' targets and completions that means Flacco will throw 515 times for 345 completions. That's good for a 67.2% completion percentage. And when you add up everyone's yards, that means Flacco will throw for 4,031 yards-a career high for him. This is also part of the reason I do not think Mason will get more than 80 targets but if he gets 100+ targets like he normally does, then Flacco will be the best QB next year and while I think he will improve, I don't think to Peyton Manning's level. These current predictions (based upon how the receivers will do) seems to fall in line what an increase in Flacco's improvement from last year. Maybe a bit better than what I would have thought from my gut, but NUMBERS DON'T LIE!

Over the past two years (obviously based upon the numbers I gave you) Flacco has increased his TD% and lowered his INT%. Flacco jumped .09% (which is actually a lot) in his TD%. Now it's extremely hard to try and predict what Flacco's TD% will be next year based after only his first two years, but I think Flacco gets 25 TDs next year. That's good for a 4.85 TD% which is still a big increase from his totals last year and is consistent with the career TD% of Drew Brees (and better than Eli Manning's). With this as the basis for my analysis, Flacco has to throw the ball somewhere and that's where I got my TD totals above.

I'll say Flacco gets 11 INTs because that would mean an INT% decrease consistent with his improvement. And why not. If he gets better everywhere else, why not at throwing it to the other team as well.

Final Projection for Joe Flacco: 515 attempts, 345 completions, 4031 yards, 25 TDs, 11 INTs, 6 fumbles; 55 rushing attempts, 200 yards, 3 TDs