A Second Look At Chris Davis

Before you say it, I realize that the sample sizes here are incredibly minute. I'm going to do analysis anyways.

After hitting .188/.264/.292 to start the season, Chris Davis was sent down to AAA to make room for Justin Smoak, who currently is hitting .215/.333/.382 on the season. Though Smoak has been a highly touted prospect the past few seasons, there's been very little fire through his first 171 PA (sample size!) in the majors. Is Smoak really a better option for the Rangers than Davis? Let's dig into the numbers.

Anyone who reads this blog, knows me, or listens to this podcast knows how much I (irrationally) love Chris Davis. Davis is an all-or-nothing hitter who makes great contact (career 22.6% line drive hitter) when he actually makes contact (below average career 65.5% contact rate). As I noted in the offseason, Chris Davis' 2010 prospects solely hinged upon his strikeout rate. If Davis could keep his strikeout rate in the mid-20% range as he did in the second half of 2009, he would be an invaluable asset. If not, well, he'd hit like he did in the first half of 2009.

Before his demotion this season, Chris Davis was striking out at an unacceptable, 2010 David Wright-like 35.4% clip. Though this K% is lower than last season's 38.4% rate, it seemed like Davis was taking steps back from the strides he made in the second half of last year and in the minors last season. However, a closer look at his numbers reveals otherwise.

Davis' problem at the plate has always been contact issues with pitches outside of the zone. His career O-Contact% of 47.9% is well below the 61+% MLB average (66.4% this season). Though this season has been no exception for Davis with respect to pitches outside the zone (36.7% O-Contact% this season), he was taking fewer hacks at those pitches this season (a career low 33% swing rate at O-Zone pitches versus a career 35.2% mark). The results have been a career high 9.4% walk rate and a career low Swinging Strike rate (SwStr%) of 15% (~20% lower than last year's 19.1% mark).

Given his second half strides with strikeouts last year and his improving approach at the plate this season, Davis's 35.4% seems unluckily and unnaturally high (Bad Umping, close call 3rd strikes -- with Davis only getting 53 PA in the majors this season, a single K% has a ~2% point impact on his K%). Something more in the 27-28% range seems more feasible.

Perhaps more concerning for Davis this season was the lack of home runs, though again, 53 PA is a terrible sample from which to draw conclusions about a player's power. His .104 ISO is half of what it was last season. These worries, however, might be put to rest by a look at Chris Davis' current minor league numbers. Minor League Splits does not have 2010 data for Davis to translate into major league production, but he is currently hitting .333/.392/.519 in AAA. Davis' 2010 AAA-ISO of .186 is well below his .268 minor league career mark, but its still light years ahead what we might dub "Darren Erstad power."

For his minor league career, Davis is a .309/.370/.577 hitter. Minor League Splits says this his minor league track record is worth a .246/.290/.437 major league line with ~28 HR per 650 AB. At the major league level, Davis owns a .253/.302/.475 line with ~33.5 HR per 650 AB.

Justin Smoak, meanwhile, has a career minor league line of .293/.404/.454, which Minor League Splits says is worth a .222/.309/.328 line with 14 HR per 650 AB. His career MLB performance to date (SAMPLE SIZE!!) is .215/.333/.382 with ~27 HR per 650 AB.

Though minor league numbers are hardly the end-all, be-all predictor of major league success, given both player's struggles in the majors, I'll take the guy with the better minor league track any day of the week. This post is not a knock on Smoak, who I think will mature into a Derrek Lee a la 2008-like hitter, so much as it is a reaffirmation of my belief in Chris Davis. Another player with great minor league numbers who bounced around a lot before given a bona fide chance is Nelson Cruz, and we all know how that story turned out. Davis does not even have 800 PA to his name and he's already shown that he has legitimate HR power. Given his contact issues with out-of-zone pitches and a below average walk rate, Davis may never succeed at the MLB level (or at least not hit consistently, think Jonny Gomes). However, Davis is a guy who deserves a chance. He flashed what he can do in 2008 and late 2009 and that kind of upside is worth a gamble.

Perhaps he needs a change of scenery. The Cubs would be more than glad to accommodate him, I'm sure.