Sexy Rexy's Fantasy Advice: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, and Sleepers In 2010

I have been patiently waiting and keeping all my players a secret. But now that the Game Of Inches' 14 team, 1/2 PPR, auction league draft has concluded, I can now give away my secrets. (BTW: you can access and look at the league here)

Here is my rankings in a standard scoring league for quarterbacks and running backs

RUNNING BACKS

1) Chris Johnson
2) Adrian Peterson
3) Ray Rice
4) Michael Turner
5) Maurice Jones-Drew
6) Frank Gore
7) Steven Jackson
8) DeAngelo Williams
9) Rashard Mendenhall
10) Ryan Grant
11) Cedric Benson
12) Joseph Addai
13) Jonathan Stewart
14) Ryan Matthews
15) Jamaal Charles
16) Matt Forte
17) Pierre Thomas
18) Knowshown Moreno
19) Justin Forsett
20) Arian Foster
21) Ahmad Bradshaw
22) Beanie Wells
23) Felix Jones
24) LeSean McCoy
25) Shonn Greene
26) Jerome Harrison
27) Clinton Portis
28) Fred Jackson
29) Reggie Bush
30) Ricky Williams
31) Jahvid Best
32) Ronnie Brown
33) Michael Bush
34) LaDanian Tomlinson
35) Marion Barber
36) Brandon Jacobs
37) Tim Hightower
38) CJ Spiller
39) Kevin Smith
40) Fred Taylor

Some quick notes about this because I'm sure if you're reading this you most assuredly disagree
- I love Ray Rice. I don't hide it. I think if I had the 3rd pick in a draft, I would take Rice over MJD. And then I put MJD next to Michael Turner and I choose Turner. Turner was awesome two years ago and was awesome when he played last year. No curse of the 370 for this season. It's not that I don't like MJD because I do, I would just choose others ahead of him. Lots o' studs this year.
- I don't like Shonn Greene this year. When he plays, he'll be awesome. That Jets O-line is amazing and they'll run the ball like crazy. But Greene is extremely injury prone and I don't think he stays healthy this year. So my ranking reflects his final overall numbers for the year.
- Same to be said for Reggie Bush, except I do like him.
- I'm a big believer that Justin Forsett and Felix Jones will break out of their clusterfuck situation and be their teams legit #1 back.
- I'm a believer that Pierre Thomas and LeSean McCoy will not.
- I think people are WAY overvaluing Ryan Matthews and I stayed clear away from him in the two drafts I had today.
- I am not aboard the CJ Spiller bandwagon.

QUARTERBACKS

1) Aaron Rodgers
2) Peyton Manning
3) Tom Brady
4) Drew Brees
5) Tony Romo
6) Joe Flacco
7) Matt Schaub
8) Phillip Rivers
9) Brett Favre
10) Kevin Kolb
11) Jay Cutler
12) Ben Roethlisberger
13) Eli Manning
14) Donovan McNabb
15) Chad Henne
If you have to go past Chad Henne then you're probably screwed

Some more quick notes:
- I love Joe Flacco this year. Read why here.
- I'm also extremely superstitious and believe in the Madden curse. This year I think it affects its cover boy Drew Brees.
- I also have a Board Bet with Cubsfan that Tom Brady finishes ahead of at least one of the following: Rodgers, Manning, Brees. I think Brady has fully recovered from his ACL surgery and returns closer to his 50 TD form than is usual 28 TD form.
- I love Matt Schaub. I drafted him last year in a league late and he was nothing but money in the bank. But I think he suffers from the "Shonn Greene Syndrome". Guy has never played in all 16 games before last year and I don't trust that he does it again last year.
- I love the talent of Phillip Rivers even more than Schaub but with the Vincent Jackson hold out, I don't trust that Legedu Naanee and Malcom Floyd (whom I love, see below) will cut it to give Rivers his numbers. Not even with Antonio Gates there.
- I like Chad Henne a lot and he's my back up in the 14 team league. Three out of his last five games he threw for 300+ yards. And now he has Brandon Marshall.
- Jay Cutler's interception rate was so statistically high and out of sync with his career that I refuse to believe he comes close to what he did in 2009 in 2010. You take away Cutler's interceptions and his numbers last year look really good.

WIDE RECEIVERS

While I do not have specific rankings for wide outs (because I do extremely extensive analysis when I project my wide outs), I have done many post prior about how I project certain receivers. Here are my predictions for some receivers (click on the name to see how I came up with my projections).

- Santonio Holmes
55 receptions/ 675 yards/ 4 TDs
-Brandon Marshall
99 receptions/ 1195 yards/ 7 TDs
-Anquan Boldin
92 receptions/ 1100 yards/ 9 TDs/
-Derrick Mason
52 receptions/ 730 yards/ 5 TDs
-Mark Clayton
25 receptions/ 352 yards/ 2 TDs

SLEEPERS

- Mike Wallace
With only 39 receptions last year he had a little over 750 yards and 6 TDs. With Santonio Holmes now gone Walalce gets more targets, receptions, and fantasy points.

- Malcolm Floyd
He put up good numbers with Vincent Jackson last year and now that he's the legitimate number one (I don't think Jackson plays a whole lot, if at all, in San Diego) he'll get the "Mike Wallace" effect

- Steve Breaston
see above. Plus he has a 1000+ yard season under his belt already.

- Joe Flacco
Haven't you read my previous post yet?

- Johnny Knox
If Devin Aromashodu is the trendy sleeper and I think Knox will be better than D.A. (currently ranked lower) then by the transitive property Johnny Knox is a trendy sleeper.

- Felix Jones
My gut tells me that Jones' awesome talent (drafted in the first round bee tee dubs) wins him the starting job and emerges like what Ray Rice did last year. But if I'm basing any decision off of my guy as opposed actual statistics, then I'm probably wrong. We don't base decisions here at GOI with our eyes, only with the numbers we see on a page!

- Justin Forsett
See Jones, Felix above.

- Fred Taylor
He was my Elijah Dukes last year, so why not this year too.

- Anthony Gonzalez
A super super super deep sleeper. I know Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon emerged last year but A-Gon (another first round draft pick) is currently the Colts' #2 starter behind Reggie Wayne and he's showed to be awesome when he plays.

9 comments:

The 'Bright' One said...

There is no reason ryan matthews will under perform. Averaged 6 YPC for 3 years in college. Sure Fresno St. doesnt have the best competition, but neither did chris johnson at E Carolina, and he averaged far fewer yards in college. Matthews "only" ran a 4.45 40 but the kid is good

Also, only 2 problems with spiller.

1) plays for bills
2) no real position, a la Bush/hester

Dude is the sickest athlete in the draft. Top recruit ever out of the state of florida. "Underachieved" at Clemson mainly cause team didnt win a bowl game, not his fault as he averaged 6 YPC in the SEC and scored 10TDs per year

I want a Spiller board bet! Top 15 RB if no injury

The 'Bright' One said...

I do not believe Flacco is a good fantasy QB. Not sure if he's a good real life one either

Kevin Kolb sucks. I dont know what anyone sees in him

Chad Henne is horrible as well

I will make a board bet that all of them finish below where you rank them

Cubsfan4evr said...

I really like Kevin Kolb. All of our board bets got wiped out so we should make a new one about him. Kolb will be a stud this year TBO.

Sexy Rexy said...

Board Bets on all of them, done. let's bang out some specifics (and all of them with the caveat of std scoring and Yahoo! player rater)

1) Will Joe Flacco be a top 6 QB this year?
2) Will Kevin Kolb be a top 10 QB this year?
3) Will Chad Henne be a top 15 QB this year?
4)Is CJ Spiller a top 15 RB this year?

David "MVP" Eckstein said...

I actually had Kolb as a sleeper and told Dmitry to consider him

Sexy Rexy said...

Let me amend my Board Bets for you TBO

1) Put an "touches" minimum on CJ Spiller. I'm not going to say "barring injury" because every RB this year will be Questionable with some sort of injury at at least one point during the season. Spiller could play all 16 games with an "injury" and that shouldn't nullify the bet

2) This list is first are foremost my guide to how I drafted and ranked players. But if Matt Schaub plays all 16 games again and Vincent Jackson plays 12 games, then I immediately put them ahead of Joe Flacco. No matter what I think Flacco is a top 8 QB which I think is something you still disagree with me on and I'll put "top 8" as opposed to "top 6" on The Board

Even though I personally ranked Flacco ahead of Schaub, essentially every single week I will predict Schaub (when healthy) to do better than Flacco.

For Board Bets, I don't do things that are close. If I had the 3rd pick in the draft I would take Ray Rice over MJD (as reflected in my rankings). But when Cubsfan asked to put Ray v. MJD on The Board, I refused. Because MJD could very very easily post better numbers than Rice. It's so conceivable that everyone but me thinks that will happen.

Phillip Rivers is a top 5 QB talent-wise and if I had to choose a QB to lead my team I choose Rivers over Flacco 10 out of 10 times. Same with Matt Schaub.

But I do feel strongly that there are not SEVEN quarterbacks that will be better than Flacco. I thinks it's extremely realistic that Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Brees, Romo, Rivers, and Schaub will be better than Joe so I will not put Flacco as a Board Bet against any of them. But against everybody else. Absolutely.

The 'Bright' One said...

too many stipulations to read. Just make the board bets that seem logical to you. I will agree to your stipulations within reason

Cubsfan4evr said...

Shows what TBO thinks about board bets.

Sexy Rexy said...

UPDATE: I'm moving Pierre Thomas from #17 to #10 on my depth chart with my newly founded knowledge that the Saints only have 2 RBs as opposed to 3