The GOI Football Draft Wrap-Up Special, Part III

Cubsfan's thoughts on the draft:

We have recently just completed the Game Of Inches Fantasy Football Auction draft 2010. This was the second time I have ever done an auction draft. The first time being the Game Of Inches fantasy baseball draft 2009. For those of you who haven’t followed this draft, it was less than pretty for me. I went in with no game plan for my first auction draft and it showed. I wasn’t aggressive and let all the players I wanted go off the board because I was worried about spending all of my money up front and not having enough left for later in the draft. As I learned the hard way, you don’t need much later when all the good players are gone. Us it is good to have some for the mid value guys you think will outperform their value, but you don’t need to have $20 left over like I did in the Game Of Inches fantasy baseball draft 2009. I had a rough baseball season because of not being prepared for the auction draft. So I started my research early for fantasy football 2010.

I am in a few competitive fantasy football leagues this year. Of course all of them are different types ranging from auction drafts, snake drafts, 10 team leagues to 12 and 14 teams. I did my research and did my best to have strategies for each of them. It makes it hard to put together a plan when all the leagues you are in are so different. So I had a few strategies for the GOI auction draft. I figured I would see how the draft played out and try a combo of them. That turned out to not be a good idea.

My first pick was Maurice Jones-Drew for $66 after I missed out on Chris Johnson for $69 and Adrian Peterson for $65. TBO got AD as a steal and everyone thought he paid a lot, but it obviously was a bargain. As you see MJD for $66 was stupid. I would have been much better paying that for Peterson or Chris Johnson. Going into the draft I was targeting MJD because he is steady, gets a lot of TD, catches a bit for this PPR league, and one of the most consistent safest players to take in my opinion. Another big reason I was targeting him was I thought I could get him for a discount thinking people would get in bidding wars and over pay for Peterson, Johnson, Ray Rice who is a PPR stud, and Frank Gore who I think has a lot of upside even though he is a top 5 guy. For some reason this didn’t happen and I didn’t want to lose out on MJD because then my team would of had a big hole and missing a stud anchor.

My second pick was Greg Jennings for $25 who I feel has a lot of upside. My goal was to get Jennings at $20, but like all of my players except Jeremy Maclin I overpaid for him. I love Jennings this year and think he will rebound from last year’s disappointing season. Last year he only had 4 TD with 9 and 12 the previous years respectively, so I think that number will go up. With that said, he isn’t an ideal PPR player because last year he only had 68 receptions last. In 2008-09 he had 80, with 53 in 2007-08. I feel like his receptions this season should be similar as they were last year, with 2008-09 just being an outlier year. Thus, I like Jennings as my second receiver, not my first receiver which he turned out to be!

With this being a partial points per reception league for my number one receiver I was obviously targeting guys who caught a lot of passes last year. Andre Johnson led the league last year with 115 catches, but Sexy Rexy beat me out for at $49. Wes Welker looks like he is making a very quick comeback, but I didn’t want to take that risk for $24, but in retrospect that might have been a good investment. With Brandon Marshall switching teams and playing with a unproven QB I was concerned. Fourth in receptions last year was Larry Fitzgerald, but with no QB I didn’t want to pay $29. T.J. Houshmandzadeh was 5th in receptions last season and has always been a good possessions receiver. He was a steal for $9 and I don’t know why I didn’t on him because he would have been a receiver for me even at 12 or 13 dollars. Roddy White was a guy I was targeting but stopped bidding at $30. I thought Michael Crabtree would be a good value, but I was surprised he went for $25. Dwayne Bowe had 80 receptions last year and Anquan Boldin had 89 so both were on my list of players to target. So I lost out on all of these receivers that I wanted so I settled on Jeremy Maclin for $9. I wish I would have bided a few more dollars for T.J. Houshmandzadeh though; who I think went underrated in this draft being a PPR league. TBO drafted DeSean Jackson for $16 and Marques Colston for $19 which were both great steals at those prices, even in an auction draft. I like Maclin, but wish I had a better receiver than him to go along with Jennings.

With my two receivers set I needed a QB and that was an ugly story folks. I really like Kevin Kolb and thought I could get him for a steal under $10. Obviously other people liked him because I got in a bidding war for him where I won at………………………………$16 which was way over priced. The problem was I liked him better than Cutler, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, and all of the guys I would have liked better, Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Brees, and more realistically Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, and Tom Brady were off the board. Funny story about Tom Brady, the guy who drafted him accidentally bided on him for $60 and he already had Rodgers! So I felt I needed Kolb and way overpaid for him. You should be noticing a trend with my Team now, I missed out on all of the players I wanted or overpaid for the ones I wanted!

I needed to get two RB for my flex and second RB spot. I got my guy Ryan Grant for $38, about 9 dollars more than I wanted to spend on him. He is a good RB, but doesn’t catch much at all. I also had to over pay for Arian Foster who I was hoping to get around 10 at $16. People made fun of me for this move, but all the RB left at this time who I liked such as Michael Bush and Justin Forsett aren’t the starting RB and have a logjam of guys with them, while foster is the guy. So I liked this move.

My computer timed out during the draft and got me a kicker in Nate Kaeding at $12, which is 10 dollars more than I would have paid for a kicker. Over paying a lot for Kevin Kolb, Nate Kaeding, and to some degree Ryan Grant and Arian Foster I didn’t have any money left over for my bench. My bench is an embarrassment and barley serviceable with Mohamed Massaquoi, Fred Taylor (Patriots), Matt Hasselbeck, James Jones for when Driver shows his age, Chris Chambers, and Golden Tate.

As you should be able to tell by now, I don’t like my team, especially for a PPR league. We will see how the season plays out though

View the GOI fantasy team at http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/league/goi and vote on who you think the preseason favorites are.

View Sexy Rexy's take on the draft in Part II here
View Part I here

2 comments:

Sexy Rexy said...

1) I think you put TOO much stock in receptions. It increases some guys values, but you should not have been targeting Housh just because of the PPR format. Last year, in a .5 PPR format, TJ Who's-Your-Mama was the 31st best wide out.

DeSean Jackson, who didn't catch THAT many passes was still the 3rd best wide out in out format

2) I felt the same way about paying too much for top guys early, but I would much rather have solid top tiered guys that hoping my sleepers work out

3) You were not getting Andre Johnson

4) Being the professional fantasy player, you should know that you always have to adapt to how other people are paying for players
5) In my draft before the GOI one I paid 70 for Ray Rice while Chris Johnson went for 66 and AD went for like 67. I'm kicking myself for that one.

6) I like Arian Foster a lot and I was bidding against you for him. I was giving you flack because you said you liked Slaton more yet still spent a lot of Foster- because of that whole Board Bet thing we have

7) If you truly believe that Kevin Kolb will perform like how I believe Joe Flacco will perform, then you should feel happy with your team. You have a top 10 wide out in Jennings, a top 8 QB (to you) in Kolb, you have TWO top RB in MJD and Grant, a guy a lot of people like in your flex (including me) who will be a full time starter with little competition in Foster.

You do realize that the VAST majority of points derives from the RB and QB position- which you're very strong at. And you "only" got Jeremy Maclin as your #2 guy. Boo hoo hoo. I'll swap my #2 guy, Steve Breaston, with your #2 any day of the week. The fantasy focus guys think Maclin will perform better than DeSean Jackson this year. Yes TBO probably has the best 1,2 wide out combo but big deal. You have an awesome 1,2 RB combo

Cubsfan4evr said...

1) If you look at the players I did draft for my team you will see I didn't put that much stock into receptions. I was hoping for guys who do catch a lot of passes, but didn't make that much of a push where I got any. I don't like T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but that was in a down year and $9 is not bad for a guy who catches a lot of passes for a PPR league. I think for that price good value.

2) I learned the hard way from our baseball auction draft that it is better to spend your money early on the better players than to have more money left later when the better players are gone. Except Kolb most of my money was spent on the safe, proven players.

4) I know that you need to adapt to a draft and have back-up plans. If I didn't know that before the first auction draft I ever did, I know that now. I did adapt in this draft and that's why I went after other players I wanted when the bidding got too rich for my blood of the players I really wanted and was targeting.

The only exception I didn't adapt was with Kevin Kolb. This was because I made the decision to pass on the QB's I liked better because they went for more money so I figured I could save for other position's if I do think Kolb will be good enough and outweigh his draft value. Once I passed on the obvious better, established QB's, Kolb was the best one left to me at that point. I didn't want to get stuck with Cutler or Eli manning as my starter so then I spent more for Kolb than I thought I would have too.

6) I like Slaton better than Foster as a RB, but at this point it looks like Foster will be the guy unless he gives it up by being bad. I liked Foster better than any of the other guys left in my budget for my third RB (flex spot). Foster looks to be guaranteed the job, not like other's that I like in platoon's such as Michael Bush, Justin Forsett, and Jerome Harission. I think those guys may as be good or slightly better, but though Foster safer for the investment.

7) I do think Kolb could be a top 8 QB this season. I think best case is 6th and worse case 10th. I think he will be within a reasonable amount of points of the Qb in front of him except the top three. Thus, I think the margin between him Romo, Schaub, Brady, will be marginal that he won't hurt me if I can make that up with better value at other position's.

I would like my team better if it wasn't a PPR league. Still wouldn't love it, but better than I do now. WR who catches a lot of receptions have more value in this league so I will loose points from that position from not having those types of players.