Fantasy Football Doctor: Week 3 Pick Ups

1) Jason Snelling | RB | Atlanta | 30% Yahoo! ownership

I'm not 100% convinced Turner won't play in Week Three versus New Orleans, but at a minimum if you own Turner you need to own Snelling (in fact you should have already). Like Brandon Jackson, Snelling has some talent but it's bolstered a damn fine rushing offensive line. Last year, Atlanta has the 10th best rushing O-line and in two games this year has the 4th. Snelling also showed what he can do last week rushing for over 130 yards and three total touchdowns. I don't know that I would drop a whole lot to pick up Snelling, but a definite buy if you have the roster room.

2) DeAngelo Williams | RB | Carolina | 99% Yahoo! ownership

Obviously if you're in a league bigger and tougher than the ones the guys play in in The League, then DeAngelo Williams is already owned and you can't pick him up. But I do think he's a great buy low candidate (his teammate Jonathan Stewart also qualifies). Last year, when Cubsfan thought Williams 2008 MVP season was a fluke, after about four bad games, he sold DeAngelo Williams- for Willis McGahee no less. And soon after the trade, Cubsfan regretted every moment of it. I think you can find a panicky Williams owner this year as well.

In 2008, DeAngelo Williams had 198 rushing yards on 54 carries (good for a meager 3.67 YPC) and no touchdowns. He ended the years as the best fantasy RB and had 18 TDs in 12 games. In 2009, DeAngelo Williams had 220 yards on 59 carries (good for a 3.73 YPC) although he did have 2 TDs. He ended the year (in only 14 games) with a 5.2 YPC. In two games in 2010, he has a 3.5 YPC and no rushing TDs.

To me, Williams is the C.C. Sabathia of fantasy football- a notoriously slow starter that finishes very strong at the end. I still think he ends the year as a top 10 fantasy RB and if you can get him for cheap now or within the next few weeks, do it.

3) Kevin Walter | WR | Houston | 30% Yahoo! ownership

Jacoby Jones was probably the biggest wide receiver sleeper since Devin Aromashodu. Everybody in the pre-season seemed to love this guy. Except for me. I hope I wrote this down somewhere or said it publicly, but I truly believe the Houston receiver you want to own not named Andre Johnson is Kevin Walter.

If you look at Walter's numbers before last year, they looked pretty good. Not clear cut #1 numbers, but a number three wide out in a 12 team, 3 WR league good. In 2008, Walter was the 19th best fantasy wide out and he already has as many TDs (2) and he did all of last year. Yes, as a Walter owner in 2009 he wasn't good, but I like a bounce back year from him and to perform better than Jacoby Jones.

4) Mark Clayton | WR | St. Louis | 53% Yahoo! ownership

Just because I like to pat myself on the back. Last week I recommended Clayton (admittedly not wholeheartedly) and he comes back in Week Two with a 2 TD game. Sure he only got 24 receiving yards but I think he has the ability and can get at least 7-9 fantasy points every week- which is great for a guy you picked off the waiver wire.

5) Marshawn Lynch | RB | Buffalo | 20% Yahoo! ownership

In an unforeseeable turn of events, Lynch led all Bills backs in both yards and carries in Week Two's loss against the Packers. I think if he ends the year in Buffalo, he's their number three fantasy producing back behind Jackson and Spiller, respectively. But I'm also not convinced Lynch ends the year in Buffalo.

I am an avid listener of the Fantasy Focus Football podcast and I'm starting to buy in that 1) Lynch gets traded to another team (and let's be honest, the Bills don't need him. At all.) and 2) the reason Lynch got so many carries and looked "so good" was because the Bills are trying to shop Lynch to the team they were facing- the Packers- who just lost their starting RB for the year.

6) Tony Moeaki | TE | Kansas City | 3% Yahoo! ownership

Last week he got 10 targets and led all KC receivers in yards. In Week One has actually managed to pad Matt Cassel's stats by getting a TD reception. He was a high draft pick and has looked good in two straight weeks. A great high upside back up TE.

If you can afford the roster room and want to take on the risk, Lynch is a good add for you.

Guys I'm not yet sold on:

1) Aaron Hernandez | TE | New England | 9% Yahoo! ownership

He led all Pats receivers in Week Two with 146 receiving yards, he was Nate Ravitz' bold prediction (on the Pats) to do well this year and he has Tom Brady throwing to him. My concern is 1) Randy Moss 2) Wes Welker 3) Rob Gronkowski. Only so much love to go around.

2) Greg Olson | TE | Chicago | 60% Yahoo! ownership

He had a TD (that WAS all him) but otherwise didn't have a reception in Week Two. All I have seen out of him is drop passes, fumble the ball, have a mismatch on defenders and not do anything with it, and not be the Adrian Peterson equivalent of tight ends. My only hope for Olson is looking how well Vernon Davis is doing right now.

3) Joshua Cribbs | WR/ Wildcat QB | Cleveland | 28% Yahoo! ownership

In Week One Mohamed Massaquoi was on my "not to trust week". The next week the Cleveland receiver that has the best day and a good fantasy day is Cribbs. I don't trust ANYONE, in Cleveland right now to start on my fantasy team(s).

4) Run DMC Darren McFadden | RB | Oakland | 84% Yahoo! ownership

I really hated Run DMC coming into the year. But so far he's done nothing but prove me wrong. After a really good game in Week One versus a good Tennessee defense he comes back in Week Two against St. Louis with a 145 yard game. He was the first back taken in one of the best RB draft classes in recent memory but in two years in the NFL hasn't done crap.

I'm still not completely sold on his talent/ health, he has competition with Michael Bush coming back, and one of the two games he's played so far was St. Louis. I'm convinced EVEN I could get 100 rushing yards on 30 carries against St. Louis.


Dmitry said...

wow i love all the guys you hate, and hate all the guys you love, except D Williams but he shouldnt be on that list anyhoo

Sexy Rexy said...

Besides your unnecessary man love for Run DMC, give me six players that are/were before the waiver deadline available in our 14 team league with very little Yahoo! ownership that you would recommend. Like 40% or less ownership

Dmitry said...

If i dont like any of them i wouldnt recommend any of them. The only guy who intrigues me is aaron hernandez. you probably hate the guy cause he reminds you of greg olsen

Sexy Rexy said...

What is your fascination with Greg Olson? What he had done to prove that he's even a top ten TE? He's barely a 15 in my mind. He gets mismatched all the time and gets targeted a shit ton and you know what he does? NOTHING. Maybe he'll do something one out of every four times, but Dez Clark pre-Olson looked better than Olson has done in his tenure here.

Among pass catching TE's last year, do you know where Football Outsiders ranked him? THIRTY-THREE! behind John Carlson, Donte Rosario, and Algea Crumpler. If Greg Olson's stats were converted into baseball numbers- he's be batting Emilio Bonofcacio numbers (a low batting BA and OBP under .300) with 8 home runs.

Greg Olson is bad until he can prove to the world he can be like Vernon Davis.

The 'Bright' One said...

Lets see, last year he had 150 less yards than the leading receiver on the team. He has 13 TD in past 2 years despite not being clear #1 TE until this year.

Oh, and guess how many times he has fumbled(recovered or not) in 4 years? Guess, you probably think like 8, 9 maybe 10. Nope, just 3. Wow he fumbles .75 times a year. But they're probably super unclutch fumbles

Look at Davis' first 3 years. I wouldnt be surprised to see olsen come close to davis' 2009 numbers. would 750 and 9TD be enough for you?

Sexy Rexy said...

Let me address each of your point individually
1) Getting 150 less yards than the Bears #1 receiver is like being the second tallest midget. Olson was 11th among all TE's last in year in yards and he only has 612.
2) Yes, Greg Olsen had 8 TDs which seems good, but he also led ALL NFL receivers last year in targets within an opponent's ten yard line (17) and targets within an opponent's five yard line (10). And not all of Olsen's 8 TD's have come while the Bears were within the red zone. He gets so many targets that the fact that Olsen only has 8 TDs is actually very considering the amount of red zone targets he gets
3) Olsen's fumbling problem is just a minor problem I have, the biggest problem I have is his lack of hands (which I will address later).
4) Just because a player like Vernon Davis did bad and then becomes good does not mean every TE (ie Olsen) will become good. If Olsen becomes like Vernon Davis, I wouldn't be shocked, but until he does so, I continue to hate him (con't)

Sexy Rexy said...

The biggest problem I have with Olsen is his lack of hands. When I see Olsen play, more often than not Cutler throws a great ball to him and Olsen will miss it. And you criticize me for claiming Olsen's fumbles are "unclutch"- well a lot of Olsen's problems and missed catches come on third downs and TD looks- because that's how the Bears (and most teams do and should use a good passing TE). So yes, Olsen does appear to me to be unclutch.

Last year, Olsen had 108 targets, but only had 615 yards. He also only had a 56% catch rate- which is pretty bad. This is analogous to looking at a guy's baseball counting stats while discounting his massive amount of at-bats. If you look at a guy that has 27 HRs and 100 RBI's you'd think on first glance that was pretty good. But if the guys at 800 ABs, well, that doesn't that good. You're arguments for Olsen is like saying "look at all these HRs and RBIs" and what I'm saying you need to dig deeper to get Olsen's true value.

The amount of targets and looks Olsen gets and his lack of ability to do a lot with those looks is represented by DVOA- in which like I said, he's only 33.

I don't care if Olsen gets 615 yards, 750 yards, or 1000 yards, hat I care about most is how well he does with the targets he gets. I will take a 39 yard, TD game when Olsen only gets one target than a 100 yards no TD game when Olsen gets 25 targets.

Sexy Rexy said...

Mistakes I made:
-He gets so many targets that the fact that Olsen only has 8 TDs is actually very *low* considering the amount of red zone targets he gets
-But if the guys at 800 ABs, well, that *'s not very* good.
-*W*hat I care about most is how well he does with the targets he gets.