Why I'm Starting Mike Williams Over Randy Moss

I'm in four fantasy football leagues, which means I essentially have every football player in the universe on one of my teams and means I'll face every player under the sun. In one ten team league I'm in, my top two wide receivers are Randy Moss and Roddy White. And in this league (starting three wide outs), I am not playing Randy Moss and I am benching him for Seattle's Mike Williams.

It's not that I'm super in love with Mike Williams, it's that I'm not going to start any deep threat against the Jets and Revis Island.

In this league I only have four wide outs (Devin Aromashodu along with White, Moss, and Williams) and I'm absolutely not starting Moss.

The logic I hear for starting Moss facing Revis (mainly from the Fantasy Focus podcast) is that Moss is still an awesome talent, I think he'll be a top 3 wide out at the end of the year, and I drafted Moss to do awesome things for my team. But you know what, all I care at the end of the day is the fantasy points a guy puts up for me. I don't care about name brand or the numbers I think a player will put up in the future when I'm doing a start and sit for each individual week. All I care about is how I think a player will perform in that particular week.

In 2009, the Patriots faced the Jets in Week Two in the Meadowlands. In that game, Moss had four catches for 24 yards. In Week 11 at Gillete Stadium, Moss had five catches for 34 yards. These are not good numbers for a fantasy wide out. In fact, Andre Johnson put up similar numbers like this in Week One of 2010 and all AJ owners (including me) were super pissed about this. I still think Johnson will be the best wide receiver in 2010, but that doesn't mean he'll put up #1 wide out numbers every single week.

And speaking of the #1 overall wide out of 2009, when Johnson went up against Revis in Week One, Andre had four catches for 35 yards. Here are some other big name wide outs who had good fantasy years who went up against Darrelle Revis:

Week Four: Marques Colston (2 catches for 33 yards)
Week Six: Terrell Owens (3 catches for 13 yards)
Week Ten: Mike Sims-Walker (3 catches for 49 yards)
Week Twelve: Steve Smith (CAR): (1 catch for 5 yards)

Revis' awesomeness is extremely well documented. In fact, Nate Ravitz (Jets fan and a member of the aforementioned Fantasy Focus podcast) wrote a great article last year about Revis.

But Sexy Rexy, didn't you watch last week's MNF game and see Anquan Boldin go off for 7 receptions for 110 yards? Very valid point, and considering Joe Flacco just looked OK and the Ravens number one wide out had awesome fantasy numbers, why wouldn't you start Moss?

The difference between Boldin and the other receivers I mentioned is the type of receiver Boldin is compared to the receivers that Moss and Johnson are.

In last week's Ravens/Jets game, Boldin was mainly used in the slot whereas Derrick Mason played on the edge of Revis' side and T.J. Houshmandzadeh mainly played on Antonio Cromartie's side. And do you want to see Mason's numbers last week? 2 catches for 21 yards.

That is why I am predicting a very good game for Wes Welker, who I believe will be used very very similarly to how Boldin was used in Week One. Both Welker and Boldin are slot guys with high catch rates who love to run after the catch. I think Moss will be played on Revis whereas Welker will be played on a linebacker or safety- and NOT Darrelle Revis.

This week, I ranked Randy Moss as my 39th best wide receiver. So in a ten team league, I don't think Moss is a starter. Now on my list I also ranked Williams at the 40th best, but you know what, I'm willing to take that risk. If Mike Williams has a bad game, then I think he and Moss will put up similar numbers. But if Mike Williams goes off, then I look like a genius! Yes, because of the talent of Moss and the genius of Belichick, Moss could end up with a great day. But I really don't think he will. I'm also willing to take that "risk".

The point is, I think all Randy Moss owners should bench him this week. I know it's a bold and gutsy call and it hurts you in your heart, but I think it will pay off for you when you see how well the receiver you start does as opposed to Moss.

9 comments:

David "MVP" Eckstein said...

Where do you get all the time to write these days? And where were you this summer? lol.

Good article though

Sexy Rexy said...

I'm in Evidence right now

During the summer I wanted to just chill and relax and spend time with friends and family. Now I post because I don't want to read for law school. Plus, I love football and think im better and analyzing it

Cubsfan4evr said...

Great article and I agree. I heard them say that on Fantasy Focus too and I disagree. I wouldn't start any WR I have against Revis this season. If I have a backup I like the matchup that week, then there is no reason to play a WR who will be covered by Revis. Now, Moss and other top WR will probably get a few points against Revis, but it won't be much.

Sexy Rexy said...

Now, let me praface by saying that if you're back ups are REALLY really bad (ie someone in the GOI league has Patrick Crayton) then I'd start Moss, or if like you're in a 20 team league where there's probably nobody in free agency/ in your bench, then I'd start Moss. But in the vast VAST majority of leagues, Id start a high upside (like either Mike Williams) guy over Moss

The 'Bright' One said...

1) randy moss is really tall

2) mike williams going "off" is like 65 yards with a TD

3) you are in a win-win situation. if randy goes off you can just claim he is great. i actually predict moss goes 90 yards with a TD

Sexy Rexy said...

I'll be bold and say Moss gets 3 catches for 38 yards and a no TD. I'll say he has a bad game so if he does go off I will say I was wrong and take myself out of the "win-win situation"

I realize Mike Williams going off isn't THAT good, but I think that if Randy Moss does end up doing better than Williams, it'll only be like one point so I'll take the chance Williams gets a TD (which you can't predict).

Sexy Rexy said...

main point of the article though- I think Randy Moss will have a very bad game

Sexy Rexy said...

Well, that completely blew up in my face.

Moss got the yards and catches I thought he would get (2 for 38 on TEN targets; in fact I called the 38 yards EXACTLY but said he's do it on 3 catches) but he also got the TD

Mike Williams: 1 catch for 7 yards

D.A.: no receptions

The 'Bright' One said...

no, moss didnt just get a TD, he got one of the sickest catches of all time. Dude was so chill about the catch i though he would just pull down his pants(again) and take a crap while one-handing the ball - thats what she said