Quick Thoughts On Manny To The White Sox

While I agree with DME that the most cost effective decision for the White Sox was to sign Jim Thome at the beginning of the year. As a Sox fan, I like the White Sox acquiring Manny Ramirez from the Dodgers for just the remainder of Manny's contract. Even though the White Sox are not a big market team like their North Side Chicago counterparts or the Yankees or Red Sox, that hasn't stopped them from spending. And as a fan, I don't care how much the price tag costs for these players. Sure more money for the players could mean a higher ticket price for me, but I only go to 3-4 White Sox games a year and I pay for the cheap-o seats anyways (and those prices don't bother me as much. Maybe it's gone up from the past couple of years, But I don't really care). At the end of the day, all I care about is the product on the field. Case in point- Alex Rios. Would I like a player of his caliber to come cheaper, of course. Do I mind that he's getting paid a crap ton but is also awesome? Not at all. As long as my players perform.

And Manny can perform.

Quietly, Manny has a triple slash line of .312/.407/.508 which is good for a .392 wOBA and a .915 OPS. He's walking at exactly his career average (13.6%) and striking out a tick under his career average (21.9% career, 19.6% in 2010). Sure his home runs are way down this year (he only has 8 on the year) and he has an ISO and SLG below his career marks, his 2010 ISO and SLG are still nothing to sneeze at (.196 and .508 respectively). Plus, Manny's only played in 67 games amassing only 236 plate appearance. You know what's also a way to not get a lot of home runs and classic counting stats, not play a whole lot. PLUS, Manny is going from pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium to homer friendly Comiskey.

And of course, Manny will be infinitely better than Mark Kotsay (.303 wOBA, .696 OPS) and somewhat better than Andruw Jones (.353 wOBA, .803 OPS).

I do think this is too little too late, getting Manny for one month isn't the magic antidote to give the White Sox a playoff birth, and his contract is still vastly expensive.

But with that being said, I do like having Manny on the South Side and I like this move a lot.


David "MVP" Eckstein said...

Manny's Dodgers prediction over Kotsay for 30 days is about an 8 run difference. Dodgers stadium has -10% index for hitters and US Cellular field has a +8% index, so let's say the difference is closer to one win. That makes an important dent in the 3.5 run differential. Don't the White Sox and Twins have a 3 game set still coming up in mid Sept? Apparently, for some reason, there are still tix available to that game.

Also, to toss my two cents on Manny, I wrote this about him over at THT This week:

David "MVP" Eckstein said...

Or, as I wrote in my AL WW Piece this week:

Attention AL-only fantasy owners who have been (foolishly) sitting on their FAAB money all season: Manny Ramirez is coming to Chicago and will be, without question, the final FAAB-buster of the season. All passengers must depart the train. If you have the cash and miss out here, you might as well concede your chances at the fantasy baseball title (if you have not already). He did not play Monday or Tuesday, so he should should not clear waivers in Yahoo leagues using default waiver settings until Saturday morning.

The move from Mannywood to the Windy City should benefit Ramirez's rest of season production. Oliver pegs him as capable of a .290/.392/.503 line down the stretch, while ZiPS sees a more optimistic .303./405/.545 line of production. I am not sure if either system is considering the change of venue in those projections, but whereas Manny was capable of a .311/.405/.510 (149 wRC+, a "down year" by his lofty standards) in a park with 1.25 percent HR/FB inflation index, he should be capable of bigger and better things over at The Cell, where flyball pitchers go to die (21.29 percent HR/FB inflation index). Dodger Stadium has a three-year park factor of 95 for batters, meaning that L.A. is suppressing offensive production for hitters by about 5 percent (B-R uses a half-step index to account for the fact that over the course of a full season, only about half a hitter's games are at his home park). On the other hand, U.S. Cellular Field has a a three-year park factor of 104 for batters.

Given his ISO of .200 on the season (.276 career), +.310 AVG (.313 career), and +.400 OBP (.411 career), it goes without saying that you will want Manny's production for your fantasy team if you have the requisite waivers priority or residual FAAB budget. Few outfielders can rival his stats, even in a down year at age 38.

David "MVP" Eckstein said...

oh, and to clarify, a -10% index for a park means a 95 index applied to hitters, who only play 1/2 of their games at home. Likewise, a +8% index=104.

David "MVP" Eckstein said...

Manny has an expected triple-slash line of .286/.387/.497 (.884 OPS) for the White Sox.