Which Matt WIll Be ROY? Forte or Ryan?

This is obvious, but the answer is Ryan. As much as it pains me to say it. but Atlants'a QB Matt Ryan deserves to be and probably will be Rookie of the Year (ROY). This year actually has a damn good batch of rookies, especially running backs. The leading candidates this year are: Matt Ryan (QB- ATL), Chris Johnson (RB- TEN), Eddie Royal (WR- DEN), Matt Forte (RB- CHI), and Steve Slaton (RB- HOU) . Felix Jones (RB- DAL), when he played, most certainly deserves to be on this list. But unfortunately he was too oft injured to be considered. Defensive players like Jerod Mayo (LB- NWE), and Leodis McKelvin (CB- BUF) have most certainly played very well and were great picks by their respected teams, but were not nearly as dominant to be considered for Rookie of the Year (ROY). Some other notables that are pretty darn good rookies: Joe Flacco (QB- BAL), DeShaun Jackson (WR- PHI), Kevin Smith (RB- DET), Jonathan Stewart (RB- CAR), and Donnie Avery (WR- STL). So withour further ado, here's my ROY list:

5) Eddie Royal. The best WR rookie this year. But among active wide outs, he was only average. To be seriously considered for ROY, you need to be amoung the best at your position but unfortunely Royal is not. Eddie Royal is fiorst among rookies WRs in YPG, receptions, and TDs but only 16th, 10th, and t-25th respectively in the league. Also hard to get catches when playing beside Brandon Marshall but, so is life.

4) Matt Forte. I love Matt Forte. God I love Forte. You just watch him play, especially with Chicago's shitty O-Line, and it's just magical. Forte can run, catch, block, and even probably throw if he was asked to! I'm happy the Bears finally got a good, high pick, offensive player in the draft. But with respects to the league, he is only 31st (maybe a bit higher because of limited amount of carries people above his has) in YPC and t-16th is TDs with 6. He's also only 30th in DVOA (imagine this like the VORP of football) behind backs like Jonathan Stewart and Kevin Smith.

t-2) Chris Johnson. God this guy is just amazing. In fact, I put him as the best back in the AFC pro bowl. He has an amazing YPC 4.9 (t-3rd in the league). It's unfortunate that he loses carries to Fatboy White in the red zone but the fact remains Johnson only has 8 TDs. The things that hurts Johnson is Football Outsiders DVOA rating for Johnson: 12th in the league. And Johnson is 8th in DYAR (imagine this as VORP per individual play).

t-2) Steve Slaton. If you look at the numbers, Slaton had almost the exact same numbers as Chris Johnson. They both are t-3rd in YPC with 4.9 and both have 8 TDs. In fact, their carries are similiar, 235 for Johnson and 230 for Slaton. Both even have just one fumble lost. Even their Football Outsider numbers are similiar. Slaton is 14th in DVOA (compared to Johnson's 12th) and 5th in DYAR (compared to Johnson's 8th). Because these numbers are so similiar, they are essentially the same player and thus both are tied for second on my ROY list.

1) Matt Ryan. Honestly, I thought Ryan would suck. He proved me wrong (and unfortunately Todd McShay right). Ryan is only 11th in the NFL in QB rating, but 3rd in YPA. The kicker that moves him to #1 on my list is that he's 5th in DYAR and, drumroll please, FIRST in DVOA among ALL quarterbacks. This means, Ryan has the most total value among all QBs in 2008.
Damn you Todd McShay!!!