San Diego State RHP Steven Strasburg was just drafted #1 in the 2009 MLB draft by the Washington Nationals. He touted as the best pitching prospect ever. He is considered able to start` for the Nationals today. Even Mark Prior spent a handful of starts in minors before started for the Cubbies, but WV is said to be THAT good that he doesn't even have to go to the minor leagues. On Around The Horn today, Woody Paige already anointed Strasburg into the Hall Of Fame (yes, it was from the mouth and mind of Woody Paige so that comment means nothing) and many many many people across the globe feel very similar sentiments about Strasburg. He might have the biggest weight on his shoulders now because he is so hyped right now. And I'm calling it now, he will fail.
Very few pitchers picked #1 in recent years have ever panned out. Mark Prior came close, but ask Cubs fans now what they think of him. Even Kerry Wood managed to come back and have success in the MLB. Besides David Price, here's a list of pitchers drafted #1 over the past 20 years: Luke Hochevar, Matt Anderson, Kris Benson, Paul Wilson, Brien Taylor, Ben McDonald, and Andy Benes. The only players I'm sure you've ever heard of from this list was either because a) they were touted as being amazing and failed or b) they have a really hot and crazy wife. But none of those player are either highly touted now nor did they ever pan out.
I wrote a previous post explaining my dislike for the hype surrounding the NFL draft, and I share the same sentiments now about this draft. I hope WV succeeds so I can continue typing and saying "Whale's Vagina" and because I don't wanna be a hater, but when THIS much hype is surrounding a kid, it just sounds like the foundation for failure. And I know WV's stats shows just how amazing he is, but the level of competition, even in rookie ball, is much harder and better than in teh college game. And even if he does have the "stuff" to compete in the majors, I think people are putting way too much hype and pressure and too big of expectations for this kid to succeed. Maybe if he, for some reason, was drafted outside of the first round or no one talked about him, then I think he could do fine. But because of all the buzz around him, I think he's headed for a downturn. Hell, even though Rickie Weeks walks and hits for decent power, Brewers fans (even those INSIDE the organization) think he's a disappointment, just because he was touted as a better 2B (excluding announcing abilities) than Joe Morgan. I can just imagine something like this happening with Strasburg, or worse, he just will flat out suck.
SIDENOTE: If you don't understand why I call Strasburg the Whale's Vagina, you need to listen to more Bill Simmons podcasts. And yes I do understand the irony in that
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Buster Olney was just asked what major leaguer the #2 pick of the 2009 MLB draft North Carolina 1B/OF Dustin Ackley will be like. He picked Darrin Erstad?
Really!? Darrin Erstad!? Really!? If Darris Erstad is your ceiling, then you're fucked. You drafted a guy in which will probably become like Darrin Erstad, then your team is fucked. If a guy like Darrin Erstad in the 2nd best pick in the draft, then this will be the worst draft of all time.
Either that or Buster Olney's just retarded.
As much as I hate Erstad (did you know he was a punter in college?), he really did have a fantastic set of early seasons in baseball. From 1997-2000 (4 yrs), he posted wOBAs of .364, .362, .300 and .411. though he was never a power hitter (except in 1998), his speed in his early career was well above average (6.0 speed score average over his first 10 seasons) and great defense.
ReplyDeleteHe used to be much much better than he is today.
Lemme quote Fangraphs, actually:
ReplyDelete"Just to put this in comparison, Darin Erstad, who fell apart early in his career and was considered a less than elite #1 pick when he was drafted anyway, was worth 25.8 wins to the Angels from 1996 to 2002. A lot of people would consider Erstad’s career a disappointment, given how poorly he’s hit in his 30s, and his first six years were comparable in value to six years of pitching from a guy like Peavy or Josh Beckett. "
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-case-for-dustin-ackley
yeah, this cant be the worst draft because the draft erstad was picked first was worse. I recall when the cubs took luis montanez with the #3 pick early in the decade he was projected to be like alex gonzalez. the crappy SS on the cubs in 2003. Seriously, that was the 3rd best prospect that year?
ReplyDeletePrior was picked 2, mauer went 1 just because the twins could not sign prior. Other guys from memory who went one recently was bryan bullington and todd van poppel
really DME, that's what you're gonna argue? really!? whatever
ReplyDelete