Don't Believe The Hype

This year, and every year, there is always massive hype about the number one overall pick for the NFL. This year the buzz is about former Georgia QB Matthew Stafford. If anyone has even seen five minutes of ESPN within the past few weeks, they know that Stafford is essentially a lock to go to the Detroit Lions #1 this Saturday. Now I'm no expert, I can't say that I've seen Stafford to play in college, and I'm not even saying Stafford will be bad, but I am skeptical about the hype that's been created about the kids entering the draft.

Football is not like baseball in the fact that you can solely look at stats and use that as a good projection to how that player will manifest in the professional level. Football does require "the eye test" so teams have to watch the player work out and see game film in order to accurately judge a draft prospect. This leads to a lot of hype surrounding many kids, and then will ultimately lead to many busts as well.

I would like to take a look at some past drafts to point out to you just how much hype can end up hurting teams. In 2006, the consensus #1 pick was Reggie Bush. Bush actually was one of the greatest college RB so it seemed logical that he would be a great pro. In fact, many "experts" already put the Jim Brown tag on him before he made it to the professional level. Instead, the Houston Texans, who had the #1 pick that year, went with DE Mario Williams. This SHOCKED the sports community! In fact, as I said in my post Where Would You Draft A RB? it's explicitly clear if you do have a Jim Brown or Walter Peyton type player available to you, you take it! How could the Texans be so stupid?

Well 3 years later, it turned out it was a great idea to get Williams. In fact, Williams has done more for this team than Bush, Matt Leinart, or Vince Young (all "great" players the Texans passed up on in that draft) have done. Williams is a great pass rusher who gets double digit sacks per year and is already one of the games elite DE's. And as for Bush, last year he lost time to undrafted former Illinois RB Pierre Thomas. In fact, Thomas has already been more productive than Bush (see comments). And Bush can't use the O-line as an excuse because Thomas plays in front of the same Line and is more productive. It seems Bush can't even run between the tackles! His RB back up/ tandum back fatboy LenDale White, has also shown to be a better player than Bush.

Now you may think to yourself, Well Sexy Rexy, that's a valid point but one year shouldn't warrant this post and these claims? So let me give you more examples. In 2005, the 49ers took QB Alex Smith. Four years later Smith sucks and is injury prone while Aaron Rodgers dropped all the way the 24. Which QB would you have rather had? In 2004 Eli Manning went #1 overall, meanwhile Phillip Rivers went #4. Although the San Diego Chargers did pick Eli first and the Giants picked Rivers fourth and ended up swapping each the QB, the Chargers should have just drafted Rivers to begin with. In 2002, the Houston Texans picked David Carr. Carr is now a a back up QB at best. While Carr is still probably better than Joey Harrington (picked 3rd and the other QB drafted in the first round), guys like Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, Jeremy Shockey, and Albert Haynesworth (all drafted top 15 that year), still would have been better options than Carr (or Harrington).

My point is, is that I can list a whole bunch of players that were drafted in the first round, and even first overall, that ended up being a waste of a pick. As a Bears fan, I'm used to having my team get let down with first round picks. (My namesake comes from a Bears first round disaster). Of course, there are players in the first round that were well worth the picks and deserved to go as high as they did. But my point is, there is so much hype around every single first rounder. All "experts" and of course GMs agree that talent taken in the first round are all great players. All these people in the business think these first round prospects will be great players.

Of course this is the same for any sport. Luke Hochevar was the first overall pick by the Kansas City Royals in 2006 and he isn't projected to be anything special. Greg Oden was drafted first by the Portland Trailblazers and right now he looks like nothing more than a back up. In fact, Portland would have been heavily criticized for taking Kevin Durant (who ranked 6th this year in PPG) over Oden.

I think it's silly to put so much emphasis on watching your team draft. The Philadelphia Eagles fans booed the team for drafting Donovan McNabb over Ricky Williams. They believed Williams would be awesome and now he's barely in the league. So this weekend when you watch the draft, let's not be TOO critical when we judge them Sunday morning.

SIDENOTE: Fuck you MVP Eckstein's for splicing in that line!