During the offseason, Alexei Ramirez, when not compared to Alfonso Soriano, was repeatably praised, compared to and benchmarked against Ozzie Guillen (career .275 wOBA). In true Ozzie Guillen fashion, Ramirez has started the season hitting .125 (5/40), with a .311 OPS (.154 wOBA) and zero extra basehits. Should we be worried?
The first thing I'm sure everyone who reads this is going to say is "sample size, sample size, sample size!" followed by "Whatever, dude. Ramirez hit .244 with 2 HR and 7 RBI through May of last season and look how things turned out! Just wait for the weather to warm up." Let's look deeper into the numbers.
As I hinted at earlier, everyone from ESPN to fangraphs has compared Alexei Ramirez to Alfonso Soriano. They have done so for three reasons. A similar body build and swing, the power/speed combination and a Pedro Cerrano-like ability to hit breaking balls. While Ramirez may not strike out as much as Soriano (at least not last year), he has just as much of an inability to convert breaking pitches into getting on base. Ramirez's 42.7% O-Swing (third worst in MLB) and 59.9% swing rate (third worst in MLB) in 2008 resulted in a 3.6% walk rate and paltry .317 OBP (mostly bouyed by a .288 BA).
Simply put, Alexei Ramirez does not get on base and he swings a lot (very often at bad pitches), a formula for disaster perfected by Delmon Young and Jeff Francouer last year. Even at a 32% on base rate, Ramirez's contribution value was limited by his "clutchiness" -- an unsustainable and uncontrollable byproduct of luck and situation. Now that Ramirez's strikeout rate has practically doubled (20% in '09, 12.7% in '08) this season, his batting average has taken a huge hit, which kills his already low on base percentage. The lowered contact rates and on base percentage for Ramirez means less ability to move over runners and decreased chances to reach home and steal bases. In other words, Ramirez, who was already walking the fine line between luck and talent with a .317 OBP, has fallen below the mendoza line, no matter what upside his speed/power combination provide. Unless Ramirez learns better pitch recogniziton (something that is ridiculously impossible to teach at age 28), he is going to be a one-season wonder. Do not be surprised if Alexei Ramirez join the ranks of Corey Patterson and other "didn't they have a lot of talent?" nobodies that have played in Chicago over the years.
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5 comments:
corey patterson :(
well done
I wonder if Dayan Visciendo has pitch recognition
Everyone, including myself, has criticized him for not walking. He will probably never walk and its a shame.
But let's put something into perspective here 1) I'd still rather have him than Juan Uribe 2)Rameriz hits around 8th in the lineup. Sure the best lineups are stacked from top to bottom, but most teams have shit once you get past the 6th guy. The 7th, 8th (and in the AL) the 9th guys sucks balls. So to have a guy at the bottom of the order who has that much power is extremely useful. And the ability to hit .280, while granted is not better than drawing walks, is still a useful skill nonetheless.
So yes, it sucks that Rameriz has a god awful OBS because he can't draw walks, but because where he is in the lineup- he still provides many useful skills that could benefit any organization and any lineup
Alexei had a positive VORP last year. While it certainly was not really high, it was still high enough to warrant him to be on the team- and in any lineup.
Also, Soriano hits a shit ton of HRs, steals a lot (maybe not so much in recent years but historically) and really doesn't walk a lot. So, as a Cubs fan, if you're going to praise Soriano and criticize Alexei, you're a hypocrite
I'm not saying Alexei doesn't deserve criticism- he most certainly does. But don't be a Cubs fan douchebag and only criticize the White Sox.
I think you should stick to your "sample size" argument that you love so much and not judge ANY player based on two weeks of the season. You said it yourself- wait until the weather gets warmer. You're not going to anoint the Marlins the winner of the NL East are you? Then don't automatically say Alexei is not going to perform this season.
You can dislike Alexei all you want- there's valid reason to, but it's unnecessary to create multiple posts about it because then you come across as you do now- as a pompous douche.
Strange as it may seem, Soriano has actually increased his walk rate each of the past three years to sit comfortably in the 9% area -- a decent figure. Soriano's .520 career slugging percentage, which is pretty damn good, actually makes him quite valuable. It's given him a .365 career wOBA despite a 5.8% career walk rate. If Ramirez was slugging 500+ annually and walked more then 3.5% of the time, he'd also have a lot of value. Granted, a .475 slugging is nothing to sneeze at, but a ISO-D under 30 is. Soriano has a lot of problems, but his increasing pitch recognition since 2003 has allowed him to produce as his bat swing has slowed down a bit. You need to also note that at 28, the ceiling for Ramirez is closing in. His bat speed is only going to slow down and a lot of the bad pitches he can make contact with now will turn into more strikeouts over time...
That said, I didn't realize he was a #8 hitter. The way Ozzie/Hawk talk about him, I assumed he was a #2/#6 guy.
And do let it be noted that I often Criticize Soriano. He still swings at TERRIBLE pitches (he almost struck out on 6 straight balls against the brewers) and all it takes is a low/outside slider to shut his HR power down. Plus, he doesn't belong in the #1 hole. Soriano is counter intuitive. As Bright One has pointed out before, as long as soriano produces, he'll stay in the #1 hole and he'll only move to the #5/6 spot if he starts to struggle. That seems a little screwed up/.
The point is, however, that Alexei Ramirez is striking out a lot and wakling a little and that is a recipe for disaster and that he may be the nxt Corey Patterson if this continues.
Lillibridge/Getz, Fields, Quentin, Thome, Dye, Konerko, and AJ all usually hit above Alexei (and usually in that order)
I appreciate you noting Soriano's major flaws but they're normally in comments and not in posts. I realize Alexei kinda sucks but this doesn't need to be mentioned in the multiple posts you have.
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