Warning! Danger, Will Robinson!

I wish I had a series of catchy sounds and graphics I could play whenever I discussed baseball players you should sell/buy in fantasy. I would be the Jim Cramer of the fantasy world and humanity would only appreciate me that much more.

Ok, enough with the ego trip and on to business. Today's topic is James Shields.

Entering this season, James Shields has been the mark of consistency. His stingy walk rate (1.91 BB/9 career) and above average strikeout rate (7.1 K/9 career) give him Greg Maddux-like control (3.72 K/BB), while a healthy mix of breaking balls and off speed pitches keep the ball on the ground (1.2 GB/FB) at a decent rate. After logging back-to-back years of 215+ IP, 3.8ish FIP baseball, I was ready to drink the James Shields Kool Aid this season.

That was until I looked at his peripherals today and came to the conclusion that the James Shields Kool Aid may be spiked.

33.2 innings into the year, a disturbing trend has continued for James Shields: declining control. Since the beginning of September of 2007, James Shields has seen his K/9 fall from 7.7 per nine to 6.7 per nine to a rate of what is now approximately 4.5 per nine. Over this same period, Shields' BB/9 rate has slowly risen from 1.51 to 1.67 to 2.54. Though all four projection systems on Fangraphs expected a slight regression in James Shields' BB/9 rate this year, they also expected a bounce back in his K/9 rate above the 7.0 mark (Bill James and ZiPS expected a full rebound in Shields' whiff rate to his '07 form) to offset any negative impact to his control. Alas, such is not the case -- at least not yet. Once a hallmark of his talent, Shields' control (K/BB) has slowly slipped from 5.11 to 4.00 to a below average 1.55 over the past 3 seasons.

This trend is identifiable in several areas of Shields' peripherals. His FIP, once a comfortable and consistent 3.8-something, has skyrocketed to 5.56. Meanwhile, Shields is giving up more Line Drives (a 4.5% increase over his 2007-2008 levels) and getting less batters to chase his pitches (6% decrease in O-Swing from last season). Furthermore, Shields has increased his seasonal HR/9 rate by 60% compared to last season.

So why aren't we noticing this collapse in control? Over this same period of time, Shields has increased his GB/FB ratio by 33% against last season. He's putting more balls on the ground for baseball's best defensive infield to convert into outs. Basically, he's been getting lucky. Those Line Drives have not really translated into hits...yet. Despite a deceptive 1.22 WHIP, James Shields' control -- the thing that makes him so very good -- is out of whack and his FIP demands a long-term ERA correction.

Perhaps this is just an issue of sample size -- we are just talking about five starts, 33.2 IP here -- but this is a trend that has been perpetuating over his past 280+ IP. I'm not saying, and far be it from me to claim, that James Shields won't have another great season of 1.2 WHIP, 3.7 ERA, 16 W baseball. I highly doubt that he will maintain his career low 1.55 K/BB rate (his previous K/BB low in any given month was 2.18 in August of last year), but the question remains regarding how much control one believes Shields will regain.

I recommend all Shields owners look out and monitor this situation closely. James Shields might not be as good as his current surface statistics (3.74 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) seem to indicate and you may consider shopping him now, while the value is still relatively high.