Pitchers I Wouldn't Buy

I've already (and extensively) detailed which pitchers I've got a mancrush on this season. Now I'm going to going into the guys I don't want.

C.C. Sabathia -- 513 IP over two seasons. Second-highest PAP last season (by a large margin). Back-to-back-to-back three 100+ pitch count games at the end of the season on three days rest. Pitches 1/2 of his games at New Yankee Stadium (which averages 4.3 home runs per game). Pick a reason, any reason.

Cole Hamels - I had him last year, but I wouldn't repeat my ownership based on several factors. He had a career year. He was already an injury risk before he increased his innings load by a sizeable amount last season. He had elbow issues through spring training.

Felix Hernandez -- He always gets off to a great start that masks just how bad his second half numbers always are. Felix has quality stuff and an ecletic pitch mix, but the lack of control and flyball nature are a recipe for concern. If he ever cuts down the free passes, however, he'll be unquestionably elite.

Gavin Floyd -- A flyball pitcher who plays at the Cell with one of the league's worst outfield defenses? No thank you.

Scott Kazmir -- He's got great stuff, but control continues to elude him. This, combined with health issues, makes him especially overvalued. He's a strikeout brand name, but better options are cheaper and available.

Roy Oswalt -- After being notoriously stingy with long balls, Roy Oswalt increased (almost doubled) his HR/9 rate last season and the trend has continued this year. Oswalt began the season with a miserable +4.5 ERA and a ridiculously good second half masked just how poor he was for 3 months. Oswalt is a big brand name riding on a few good starts, so you might want to trade him while his value remains relatively high. Otherwise, you may eventually regret wasting a top 10 pick on him. Perhaps you can get an underperforming Ricky Nolasco. It should be noted that Oswalt also pitched (poorly) in the WBC.

Brad Lidge -- He's got mental issues that often cloud his physical abilities. He's nowhere near perfect and it would be unwise to pay top dollar for someone who isn't top tier. You would have been better off drafting Soria, Broxton or Wood. He's already starting to show cracks in his game.

K-Rod -- The logic is similiar to that behind Lidge. K-Rod's peripherals have been on a three year slide and there's no reason to expect a significant reversal of that trend this late in his career. What you see is what you get. The upside is limited and you are paying high because of a 62 save season. He's not a bad player to own, he's just entirely overrated.

Jon Lester -- He's a great public relations story (battles cancern to come back and throw a no-no/have a great season), but his peripherals say he's not likely to take a big step forward this year and maintain his success from last season. Unless Lester can maintain his shaved walk rate and decrease home run propensity, his ERA is going to rise past the 4.00 threshhold. Does anyone (Sexy Rexy?) have Lester's breakout/collapse rates handy?

Dice-K -- I've already talked a lot about his disturbing walk rates and they've already come back to burn him.

Sell High Guys:
Armando Galarraga -- Those home runs and mediocre control rates are going to hurt your fantasy team big time.

Joe Saunders -- He strikes NOBODY out and gives up his share of walks and home runs. Get whatever you can for him and be happy with the profit.