Pitchers I Wouldn't Buy

I've already (and extensively) detailed which pitchers I've got a mancrush on this season. Now I'm going to going into the guys I don't want.

C.C. Sabathia -- 513 IP over two seasons. Second-highest PAP last season (by a large margin). Back-to-back-to-back three 100+ pitch count games at the end of the season on three days rest. Pitches 1/2 of his games at New Yankee Stadium (which averages 4.3 home runs per game). Pick a reason, any reason.

Cole Hamels - I had him last year, but I wouldn't repeat my ownership based on several factors. He had a career year. He was already an injury risk before he increased his innings load by a sizeable amount last season. He had elbow issues through spring training.

Felix Hernandez -- He always gets off to a great start that masks just how bad his second half numbers always are. Felix has quality stuff and an ecletic pitch mix, but the lack of control and flyball nature are a recipe for concern. If he ever cuts down the free passes, however, he'll be unquestionably elite.

Gavin Floyd -- A flyball pitcher who plays at the Cell with one of the league's worst outfield defenses? No thank you.

Scott Kazmir -- He's got great stuff, but control continues to elude him. This, combined with health issues, makes him especially overvalued. He's a strikeout brand name, but better options are cheaper and available.

Roy Oswalt -- After being notoriously stingy with long balls, Roy Oswalt increased (almost doubled) his HR/9 rate last season and the trend has continued this year. Oswalt began the season with a miserable +4.5 ERA and a ridiculously good second half masked just how poor he was for 3 months. Oswalt is a big brand name riding on a few good starts, so you might want to trade him while his value remains relatively high. Otherwise, you may eventually regret wasting a top 10 pick on him. Perhaps you can get an underperforming Ricky Nolasco. It should be noted that Oswalt also pitched (poorly) in the WBC.

Brad Lidge -- He's got mental issues that often cloud his physical abilities. He's nowhere near perfect and it would be unwise to pay top dollar for someone who isn't top tier. You would have been better off drafting Soria, Broxton or Wood. He's already starting to show cracks in his game.

K-Rod -- The logic is similiar to that behind Lidge. K-Rod's peripherals have been on a three year slide and there's no reason to expect a significant reversal of that trend this late in his career. What you see is what you get. The upside is limited and you are paying high because of a 62 save season. He's not a bad player to own, he's just entirely overrated.

Jon Lester -- He's a great public relations story (battles cancern to come back and throw a no-no/have a great season), but his peripherals say he's not likely to take a big step forward this year and maintain his success from last season. Unless Lester can maintain his shaved walk rate and decrease home run propensity, his ERA is going to rise past the 4.00 threshhold. Does anyone (Sexy Rexy?) have Lester's breakout/collapse rates handy?

Dice-K -- I've already talked a lot about his disturbing walk rates and they've already come back to burn him.

Sell High Guys:
Armando Galarraga -- Those home runs and mediocre control rates are going to hurt your fantasy team big time.

Joe Saunders -- He strikes NOBODY out and gives up his share of walks and home runs. Get whatever you can for him and be happy with the profit.

8 comments:

Sexy Rexy said...

CC may be abused but he's shown he can handle it. If he was younger I'd be worried but he'll be awesome as the year continues.

Sexy Rexy said...

You also apparently can't count. Your title says you're gonna mention five pitchers yet you talk about ten- and then mention two more

Sexy Rexy said...

ALSO, CC has only given up one HR all year, and that was today. CC has had 3? starts at Yankee stadium and one more away.

Historically, CC has done poorly in April. I feel as if you are contradicting yourself and are "panicking early" and seeing what CC has done in four starts and automatically assume the worst. SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLE SIZE

Sexy Rexy said...

Also Lester:

4% breakout rate
21% Improvement rate
41% collapse rate
9% attrition rate

David ''MVP'' Eckstein said...

1) CLC has clearly impaired my math skills.
2) I've been down on CC since last season. I know he's a workhorse, but even workhorses breakdown eventually (Aaron Harang, Carlos Zambrano)
3) Baseball Prospectus seems to agree with me about Lester, as they say he's 2x as likely to regress and 10 times as likely to fall apart as he is to breakout
4) CC will probably post good numbers. I never said he wouldn't. I'm just saying that many mitigating factors such as potential injury scare (he was more abused last yr than he ever had been in his career), the potential windtunnel factor that is Yankees stadium and the round 2/3 price tag are all reasons I wouldn't want to draft him. I'd surely buy low on him now if you have the opportunity, but I wouldn't pay CC money for CC. I'd much rather have a guy like Haren or Billingsley because the value per cost is much greater.

My fearless forecast for CC is:
3.50 ERA, 200 IP (i'm banking the yankees will limit his workload or that CC will go on the DL once this season), 170 K, 16 W

Great numbers, to be sure, but are they top 3 SP overall numbers? I dont think so.

David ''MVP'' Eckstein said...

Also, Haren finally got a win today! Woohoo. The fact that Haren is only 1-3 with a 1.38 ERA highlights how truly awful the Diamondbacks offense is. God I hope they improve

Cubsfan4evr said...

So thats why you were trying so hard to trade me Oswalt.

Sexy Rexy said...

OK, I maybe drafted CC high but youre basing a lot of these pitchers you wouldn't buy based on the draft. But the draft has already happened so youre almost sending out mixed signals i think.

I dont know, I feel at this point in the baseball season, I would expect a post about pitchers you wouldn't buy based on guys who are having a first good weeks but you expect will peter out- like Floyd and King Felix and not necessary one based on draft predictions