Showing posts with label Adrian Gonzalez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Adrian Gonzalez. Show all posts

TBO's Top 5 Prettiest Swings in Baseball

For those of you who actually watch baseball games, as opposed to simply checking daily box scores and transaction wire for your fantasy team, can appreciate that every baseball player has a unique style to his game. This is most apparent in his(or her) baseball swing. Scouts often drool over a high school kid with a sweat stroke. Maybe the most famous of those kids was Ken Griffey Jr. who had the smoothest, most effortless power swing in baseball history. The Cubs recently spent the 3rd overall draft pick on high school prospect Josh Vitters for having a "pretty right-handed swing". One player on my list of top 5 pretty swings was a former number 1 selection out of high school. Although it has been shown over and over that a players swing or physique cannot determine major league success, it is undeniable that some baseball players have an advantage over others based on the force, flexibility, or torque they can produce. It is generally accepted that the best batting average hitters in baseball history have been left handed swings. Lefty bats appear to be more fluid and pleasing to the eye, so it should be no surprise that my top 5 list consists of all lefties.

5) Carlos Gonzalez (CarGo)


When I think of Carlos Gonzalez, I imagine the incredible extension and torque that he is able to generate with his body. As a result the ball generates incredible back spin allowing it to carry further and further over the fence. For a player that isn't incredibly tall or strong, he can hit it with the big boys as his 413 foot homer average this year shows.

4) Bryce Harper


Yeah, I know he's not even in the major leagues right now and may not be for another 3 years. But we have a thing called youtube and Bryce Harper may have the fastest hip rotation of anyone in baseball today. He was the unanimous number pick in last Mondays MLB draft. He is praised for having one of the fastest bat swings in recorded history. From Sports Illustrated, "Still only 16, Harper stands 6'3", weighs 205 pounds, has faster bat speed than Mark McGwire in his prime and runs so fast that he scored on wild pitches six times this season from second base."

3) Adrian Gonzalez


Adrian Gonzalez was a first overall selection of the Marlins out of high school in 2000 and was described as having a perfect swing. I remember the first home run I saw him hit for the Texas Rangers. His effortless swing reminded me of Rafael Palmeiro, except it was smoother and more variable. The Rangers, who already had an All-Star first baseman in Mark Teixeira decided to give Gonzalez to the Padres for Adam Eaton. Since getting the starting position in San Diego, Gonzalez has become one of the most desirable young players in the game. DME showed us the true greatness of Agon if had played in Fenway instead of Petco Park last year.

2) Chase Utley

Utley's swing can be described as the opposite of Carlos Gonzalez. Instead of using a large wind up and extending every limb of his body to generate torque, Utley instead uses a very short, abbreviated swing to generate his force. With almost no follow through, Utley must have incredibly strong hands to produce the force to hit 8 home runs in a single playoffs.

1) Robinson Cano

I made a bold prediction that Cano was going to win the MVP award this season based solely on the beauty of his swing. When I watch Cano hit, I feel like i'm in the 1950's watching the great players of yesteryear. He is able to generate even more back spin on the ball than CarGo, except there is much less movement and uncertainty in his swing. He is able to turn on the inside pitch, while smacking line drives to the opposite field.

Such that we don't discriminate against right handed swings, my list would include: Miguel Cabrera, Evan Longoria, Manny Ramirez, Albert Pujols, and Ryan Zimmerman

Lets not forget the sweetest swing of all


Padres Trade Gonzalez To ChiSox For Bechkam, Prospects

According to ESPN and MLBTradeRumors, Adrian Gonzalez has been traded to the Chicago White Sox for Gordan Beckham, Paul Konerko, and some pitching prospects.

This is great value for Adrian Gonzales owners in fantasy. AGon averages about 38-40 home runs in the most pitcher-friendly park and not moves to a park that has been top ten in home runs leaving yard. He could easily rival now Pujols and Howard as the top home run hitter in 2010.

However, from a reality perspective this isn't the greatest deal. The White Sox have a lot of money tied up in Rios and Peavy and I can't imagine they have a lot of money left over to re-sign Gonzalez to a long term deal. And giving away Bacon- who is dirt cheap for the team right now and a player the team could potentially have for another 7,8 years is not really worth the two they'll get from AGon.

Padres on the other hand got a steal. Sure, Konerko and Bacon's home run numbers will deflate- but the same flaws the White Sox had in this trade is an enormous benefit to the Padres. The padres couldn't afford AGon and they now get a top prospect for cheap for many years.

The prospects have not yet been announced in this deal.

If Adrian Gonzalez Played For The Red Sox Last Year...

Using a few of the park/league adjustment resources I mentioned earlier today, I decided to look at how Adrian Gonzalez's plus-quality 2009 campaign in Petco Park would have looked like if he played for the Red Sox last season.

Playing for the Padres in 2009, Gonzalez put up a .277/.407/.551 line with 84 1B, 27 2B, 2 3B, 40 HR and 119 BB. That was good for a .402 wOBA. Let's look what happens when we change parks and leagues, keeping the low .280 BABIP stable (.310 career BABIP).

Petco Park adjustment (divide)


Fenway Park adjustments (multiply)


Combine these adjustments with the change of league adjustments and you quickly notice why Boston covets Adrian Gonzalez, who put up a .274 ISO playing 1/2 his games at Petco last season (click to enlarge):


I'm not exactly sure how the slugging percentage would change, but if Adrian Gonzalez was playing at the exact same level for Boston rather than San Diego last season, his .277 BA and .407 OBP would have translated into a .324 BA and .435 OBP at Fenway. Where as Petco depressed run production by 25.9% last season, Fenway bolstered it by 7.2%. A change of scenery between Boston and San Diego last year would have a 33% change in runs production in favor of hitters. Looking at the numbers, I have to conclude that the Red Sox's interest in Agon makes a lot of sense. In Petco, Adrian Gonzalez produced 48.9 Batting Runs Above Average (BRAA). If converted into Fenway numbers, Gonzalez would have, in theory, put up 70.7 BRAA. That would have made him a 8.3 WAR player, equally as valuable as 2009 NL MVP Albert Pujols (8.4 WAR, 72.1 BRAA). Gonzalez is one of the absolute best power hitters in the game and its a shame that he is forced to play in the worst power park in baseball (see Brian Giles). Even a move to a neutral park like Tropicana would do wonders for Gonzalez's career and impending free agency pay day in 2011.

I wouldn't project another .274 ISO season for Gonzalez (at least not in Petco), but a .285/.400/.530 line with 35+ HR to boot is more than reasonable. Remember that Gonzalez's numbers were held down by a poor BABIP and though Gonzalez should regress some towards his career norms (although at age 27, its possible that he could retain a lot of these power gains), the luck improvement in the other direction may cancel out some of those negative corrections. In other words, Gonzalez may be able to repeat his fantasy value in 2010.

Still, he's no Albert Pujols...right?