EDITOR'S NOTE: Do you not understand FIP, xFIP, or a lot about sabermetrics? I recommend you read this first before proceeding to get a better understanding of the arguments being made.You can always find some nice value late in your draft. Sure, those players probably won't have the same numbers as your top ranked players, but still great value. Except for one guy- The Dirty Scherz aka Max Scherzer.
Yahoo! ranks Scherzer as the 263rd best player available. This is ridiculous. ESPN ranks Scherzer as the 152nd best player and MockDraftCentral ranks Scherzer as the 146th. So why the disparity?
I frankly can't answer that at all. All I can say is that Scherzer will be a top 25 pitcher next year so if you can get him around 260, then you've just gotten the best value in your draft. Based on DME's rankings, he ranks Scherzer as the 13th best pitcher available. While I don't have a complete list and rankings of pitchers, I did compile a list of how players rank based upon their past three years (if they had less than three years major league experience, I used my own judgment to compile their data). While my list is nowhere near scientific, I had Scherzer as the 5th best guy in K/9 and the 18th best guy for xFIP. Essentially, Scherz is going to strike out a ton of guys with a decently low ERA.
Scherzer has always been a top prospect so it should be no surprise that Scherzer excels. In his first full year as a starter he posted a 9.19 K/9 rate (good for 11th overall), a 3.87 FIP (33rd overall), and a 3.88 xFIP (27th overall). Sure that ERA isn't going to be top 10 good, but it's certainly should dip to way under 4.00 for next year. And moving to Detroit should only enhance his stats even more. Last year, the Tigers had the 4th best defense last year. Sure, the Diamondbacks were pretty good, but not better than the Tigers.
One last argument that could be made is that The Dirty Scherz is moving from the weaker league to the tougher one. OK, so his stats will drop a little bit. But also keep in mind, that Scherzer is young and should only get better with age.
Will Scherzer be a top 15 guy next year? Probably not. But would I take him ahead of Gavin Floyd? Jake Peavy? Jair Jurrgins? Roy Oswalt? Carlos Zambrano? You bet I would. And yet Scherzer is being ranked in Yahoo! as below all those guys. What's the deal Yahoo!?