Jair Jurrjens is apparently on the mend, with an MRI schedueled later today in order "to determine the cause of soreness in his right shoulder." Despite pitching a career high 215 innings in his age 23 season, Jurrjens only received a 27.1 innings bump compared to 2008, safely within the theoretical "Verducci Effect" threshold, while falling outside the top 30 abused arms label (he was #48 in total Pitcher Abuse Points last season, not bad considering he was top 20 in innings pitched last season). What this means is the Jurrjens injury, provided it is nothing serious, should not scare off prospective drafters/bidders. Though he's not as good of a pitcher as his ERA would indicate last season, he is a legit mid-to-upper 3's ERA guy with a serviceable 1.30ish WHIP and a slightly above average K/9 rate to boot. Worthy of a round 10-12 pick? I would say so. Just not much higher, given the general depth in pitching.
Regardless of the long term impact this temporary setback may have on Jurrjen's 2010 campaign, the short term consequences upon another young star may be significant. If Jurrjen misses a start or two at the beginning of the season, this would open a temporary spot in the rotation for Kris Medlen to spot start. Despite the rusty beginnings as a starter last season, Medlen showed a lot of potential out of the pen. Medlen has 3 quality offerings (changeup-fastball-curveball) with identical release points and vastly different levels of break. Medlen could be a real fantasy bargain in 2010 if he succeeds in a starting role and sticks with it.
I will be keeping an eye on this situation.
Showing posts with label Kris Medlen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kris Medlen. Show all posts
Free Kris Medlen
Last year, the Braves seemed content with a rotation consisting of Javier Vasquez (2.82 xFIP), Derek Lowe (4.19 xFIP), Tommy Hanson (4.15 xFIP), Jair Jurrjens (4.34 xFIP), and Kenshin Kawakami (4.61 xFIP). With the return of Tim Hudson (and his subsequent 3-year extension), one of those five became expendible. Despite Atlanta's best efforts to move Lowe this offseason, the odd man out was Javier Vasquez. Though Vasquez was moved for money (which was partially used to sign Troy Glaus), they also managed to receive a high quality pitching prospect (Aroyds Vizcaino) in return.
This sets up the 2010 Braves rotation as Hudson-Hanson-Lowe-Jurrjens-Kawakami. Not bad, but it could be better. Why? Lost in this mix is a hidden gem: Kris Medlen.
Kris Medlen, who dominated the minors in 2009 (1.66 FIP, 10.51 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 in AAA last season), was called up a few weeks prior to super prospect Tommy Hanson. In 4 MLB starts, Medlen posted an ugly 6.38 ERA, but the underlying numbers show something better. Despite his struggles with command when promoted (5.40 BB/9 in his 4 starts), Medlen still managed to fool his share of hitters (9.33 K/9, 77.8% contact rate (80.5% MLB average)) and keep the ball in the yard at a respectable rate (0.98 HR/9, 1.05 MLB average). Beneath the ugly ERA was a much less ugly 4.57 FIP/xFIP. After being moved to the bullpen, Medlen's contact rate fell to 75.3%, his strikeout rate rose to 9.67 per nine and the walk rate, which only once (AA, 2007) eclipsed 2.63 per nine in the minors, fell to an MLB-average 3.47 per nine.
The result? A stellar 2.89 FIP/3.38 xFIP in 49.1 IP from the pen. Medlen posted the 19th best FIP and 25th best xFIP of all MLB relievers who tossed 40+ innings last season (out of 176 RPs). By comparison, super closer Joe Nathan posted a 2.88 FIP last season. Yeah, Medlen is just that good. As the season progressed, Medlen just got better. Below are graphs for Medlen's K/9, BB/9, K/BB, and ERA as the season progressed (click the image for a clearer picture).
Though Medlen showed signs of fatigue as the season wound down, there is a clear trend of improvement in his numbers from May to mid-September. Despite these clear signs of improvement, the Braves kept Medlen banished to the bullpen (where he was effective, but underutilized). Since being promoted to a starter's gig in 2008, Medlen has posted a 2.87 FIP in AA and a 1.66 FIP in AAA, while sporting a K/BB of 4.44 and 4.40 at each respective level. Using his minor league numbers, Medlen's major league equivalent FIP as a starter in 2008, per Minor League Splits, was a solid 3.82. MLE data for 2009 is not available for Kris Medlen, but his luck/park neutralized FIP in AAA last year was 2.42.
Medlen sports three pitches: a devastating change up, a quality fastball and a league-average curveball. His arsenal is so effective not just because of the quality of his stuff, but also the effectively deceptive nature of his release point. Medlen's release point for his Fastball, Curveball and Change Up tend to look like this (taken from Medlen's 5/31/2009 start vs the Diamondbacks, click the image for a clearer picture):
What is noticeable here is a mix of pitches thrown from an almost identical release point, each with a sharply different level of velocity and movement. Such is how Medlen is able to so effectively fool hitters.
The moral of the story here? Kris Medlen is very good. He is much better than Kenshin Kawakami and Jair Jurrjens and probably even Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson, despite the ERA disparity. The Braves are wasting a golden arm. If given another chance to start, Medlen could be one of the best fantasy sleepers for 2010.
This sets up the 2010 Braves rotation as Hudson-Hanson-Lowe-Jurrjens-Kawakami. Not bad, but it could be better. Why? Lost in this mix is a hidden gem: Kris Medlen.
Kris Medlen, who dominated the minors in 2009 (1.66 FIP, 10.51 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 in AAA last season), was called up a few weeks prior to super prospect Tommy Hanson. In 4 MLB starts, Medlen posted an ugly 6.38 ERA, but the underlying numbers show something better. Despite his struggles with command when promoted (5.40 BB/9 in his 4 starts), Medlen still managed to fool his share of hitters (9.33 K/9, 77.8% contact rate (80.5% MLB average)) and keep the ball in the yard at a respectable rate (0.98 HR/9, 1.05 MLB average). Beneath the ugly ERA was a much less ugly 4.57 FIP/xFIP. After being moved to the bullpen, Medlen's contact rate fell to 75.3%, his strikeout rate rose to 9.67 per nine and the walk rate, which only once (AA, 2007) eclipsed 2.63 per nine in the minors, fell to an MLB-average 3.47 per nine.
The result? A stellar 2.89 FIP/3.38 xFIP in 49.1 IP from the pen. Medlen posted the 19th best FIP and 25th best xFIP of all MLB relievers who tossed 40+ innings last season (out of 176 RPs). By comparison, super closer Joe Nathan posted a 2.88 FIP last season. Yeah, Medlen is just that good. As the season progressed, Medlen just got better. Below are graphs for Medlen's K/9, BB/9, K/BB, and ERA as the season progressed (click the image for a clearer picture).
Though Medlen showed signs of fatigue as the season wound down, there is a clear trend of improvement in his numbers from May to mid-September. Despite these clear signs of improvement, the Braves kept Medlen banished to the bullpen (where he was effective, but underutilized). Since being promoted to a starter's gig in 2008, Medlen has posted a 2.87 FIP in AA and a 1.66 FIP in AAA, while sporting a K/BB of 4.44 and 4.40 at each respective level. Using his minor league numbers, Medlen's major league equivalent FIP as a starter in 2008, per Minor League Splits, was a solid 3.82. MLE data for 2009 is not available for Kris Medlen, but his luck/park neutralized FIP in AAA last year was 2.42.
Medlen sports three pitches: a devastating change up, a quality fastball and a league-average curveball. His arsenal is so effective not just because of the quality of his stuff, but also the effectively deceptive nature of his release point. Medlen's release point for his Fastball, Curveball and Change Up tend to look like this (taken from Medlen's 5/31/2009 start vs the Diamondbacks, click the image for a clearer picture):
What is noticeable here is a mix of pitches thrown from an almost identical release point, each with a sharply different level of velocity and movement. Such is how Medlen is able to so effectively fool hitters.
The moral of the story here? Kris Medlen is very good. He is much better than Kenshin Kawakami and Jair Jurrjens and probably even Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson, despite the ERA disparity. The Braves are wasting a golden arm. If given another chance to start, Medlen could be one of the best fantasy sleepers for 2010.
