NBA Team Efficiency: Possessions

I feel like I need to write something or i'll get kicked off the blog. So here is my half-hearted rant on basketball.

I have spent a great deal of time trying to prove to the world the importance of free throw attempts for teams and individual players, as well as breaking down how to analyze scoring efficiency for individual players. However, basketball is a true team sport and no one individual will his team to victory, except MJ of course. The premise is quite simply. Disregarding the efficiency of a team's offense or defense, a crude way to predict their success is simply through the number of possessions a team generates relative to their competition. Basically a +/- system of possessions. It can be surmised that the team with more possessions will have more chance to score and all else being equal should win more games than they lose. Obviously, this is not the whole story, because being able to make shots, earn free throws, and excel defensively factor into the equation.

So how can a team go about getting more possessions than their opponents? The rules of the game ensure that after one team scores, the other team gets the ball, but it is still possible to gain possessions or better yet steal possessions from the opponents. The combination of a few stats from any box score can usually indicate which team won without even looking at the final score

1. Difference in field goal attempts - If one team takes 90 shots an the other takes 80, that is a good sign, but no the end of the story
2. Difference in free throw attempts - You can assume every 2 free throws is equal to 1 possession, so it has to be factored into difference in field goal attempts
3. Difference in turnovers - If one team forces 5 more turnovers than the opposition, that is basically a 10 possession difference
   
4. Offensive rebounds - Rebounding your own missed shot adds an extra possession, allowing for the opportunity to score more points.

Corey Maggette is having the best month ever

A little history on Corey Maggette. He grew up playing basketball on the Chicago playgrounds before taking his game to Duke University. He was one of the first Dukies to leave college before his senior, thanks to his incredible build(6'6") and physic(225LB). Spending most of his career playing for the Clippers in LA, he has been the model of consistency. Though never the best player on his team, nor the team leader, his career output of 17/5/2 with .457/.321/.821 makes you a lot of money in the NBA. He has always been an underrated player who's efficient style of play gets overlooked in the numbers driven league.

At age 30, he is enjoying the best season of his career. Despite taking a modest 12 shots per game, he is averaging 20.6 points per game. A shot efficiency difference of 8.6, would rank as the best differential of all time, and even more impressive given extremely low shot output. He has been able to accomplish this great season by shooting an unheard of 55% from the guard position to go along with 84% on the 8.6 free throw attempts he puts up each game. You may be asking yourself what the big deal is? A lot of players should be able to do that. Well, no. 55% from the field is probably equivalent to a baseball player hitting .360, while 8.6 FTA is like walking 100 times in a season. Both incredible achievements. Let alone both in the same season.

However, those season stats aren't even in the same statosphere when compared to what Maggette has accomplished in the month of January. He has increased his shot total to just under 15 per game in the 10 games he has player this month, while his point total has soared to 29.2 per game. That is an unimaginable scoring efficiency difference of14.4!!!! He has averaged nearly 2 points for every shot he takes from the field. Imagine if Kobe Bryant had that type of efficiency. Considering his 23 shots per game, that would equate to about a 45 point per game average. In reality, Kobe only averages 28. So Maggette is scoring 1 more point, while taking 8 less shots than the great Kobe Bryant in this month. Sure this is a tiny sample size of 10 games, with no chance of Maggette extending this production through the entire season, but this accomplishment cannot be overlooked. I would equate it to Sammy Sosa hitting 20 homers in June of 1998.

So how has Maggette been able to pull of this Wilt Chamberlinian performance you may ask? His triple slash lines are a good start, 29/7.5/4 and .588/.375/.906, but the biggest thing is his free throw proficiency. He has attempted at least 10 free throws in all 10 games this month. In comparison, Kobe has only done that twice this month, and Derrick Rose's career high is only 9. So he's averaged 12.7 FTA and hit 90 percent of those for a sweat 11.5 "free" points each game. So the combination of a crazy high field goal percentage and a dozen free points equals the single most efficiency scoring month I have ever seen.

Maybe Corey Maggette can start getting some love around the NBA

Basketball Scoring Efficiency

I have been fascinated with the efficiency of scoring in the NBA for quite a while. Through my studies of box score on a nightly basis, it is actually very easy to assess why each team wins on a daily basis. It's not as easy as simply scoring more points than the opponents, but it's also not that much more complex.

There are only 3 ways to score points in the NBA

1) Make more shots than your opponents. This can be accomplished in several ways. Take more shots. Shoot a higher percentage. Get more rebounds. Force more turnovers

2) Make more 3-pt shots. Since a 3 pointer is worth 50% more points than a 2, you can add to your point total without increasing number of shots

3) BY FAR THE MOST IMPORTANT IS FREE THROW ATTEMPTS!!!!! How many times will I have to emphasize this stat on this blog. If I could chose a single category for the Bulls to lead the league in, it would be FTA. FREE POINTS PEOPLE. Here a real example from todays Bobcats/Heat game. The Heat took 12 more shots, made 1 more, 2 more 3-pointers, 5 more rebounds, and 2 more points off turnovers. Who do you think won the game? Obviously the Heat, right? Nope. Charlotte took 15 more free thrown and made 14 more to win the game easily by 10 points. Thats how important free throws are. So not to Loul Deng when you have the option of a 20 footer, which he shot 36% last year, or drive to the basket. Always drive the ball! Even if you miss the inside shot, odds are you will get fouled which will lead to FREE POINTS. This drives me crazy

So that is how you score in the NBA. Team scoring is simply an integration of each individual player on the team. So my question inquiry is who are the most efficiency scorers in NBA history. My sample consisted of the top 30 scorers in NBA history, all averaging over 22 points per game over their entire careers. Obviously, many team circumstances are involved in determining a players efficiency, but my hypothesis is that scoring efficiency is mainly an inherent property much like batting average and yards/att.

The differences between the players in terms of shots attempted, made, 3-pointers, and free throws are nicely condensed within points per game. Instead of analyzing every players ability in each scoring category, we can simply look at the overall scoring efficiency. I did this simply by subtracting field goal attempts per game from points per game.

Big men are expected to have high efficiency scoring, due to their increased shots from within 10 feet. Yet it still takes skill to get position and have the ability for make easy shots, hence it cannot be overlooked. Shockingly, Adrian Dantley has the highest efficiency of any player in NBA history. Scoring over 24 points per game while taking less than 16 shots is simply amazing and unmatched in NBA history. Most of the less efficient scorers on the list are high volume shooters which "artificially" inflates point totals. Not to say that they are not great players, just less efficient. Rick Barry, Pistol Pete, Vince Carter, and Allen Iverson all fall into this category.