Are SB Overvalued?

As recently as a decade ago, steals were a "rare" commodity. With big, bulky and slow OBP/SLG guys en vogue, the prevalence of athletic speedster types dwindled. In 2000, only thirteen players with 300+ PA stole 30 or more bags and only six stole 40 or more. In 2003, the number of players who stole 30+ bases dwindled to eleven and the average player (300+ PA) stole 7.7 bases. The result? Guys like Scotty Pods, Alex Sanchez (who?) and Dave Roberts -- one category guys -- became quite valuable. Despite their minimal offerings, the shortage of stolen bases made a 40+ bags guy like Scotty Pods desirable; if you offered an additional category such as a .300+ average to boot, like Juan Pierre did, you were that much more valuable.

Speed was rare and you had to pay to get it; quality steals (more than one category guys) were even rarer.

But in our progressive age, in the year 2010, has anything changed? With the re-valuatuation of defense and "athletic types" (albeit ones who get one base), are steals still rare? If we can put a man on the moon, why can't we put more stolen base guys on first?

Last season, seventeen players stole 30+ bases. For the first time in their careers, Ichiro and Hanley were not one among them (next year Ichiro probably will be, Hanley I am not so sure about). The average player with 300+ PA stole 8.8 bases. Guys like Michael Bourn, Nyjer Morgan, and Rajai Davis were aplenty and provided sufficient fantasy value to render early round picks upon guys like Jacoby Ellsbury and Ichiro as "wasteful."At least economically.

2008 was a similar story. Sixteen players stole 30+ bases and the average player stole 8.5 bases.

What does this mean? I think it means fantasy owners overvalue stolen bases. In the last several years, the prevalence of SB guys has increased, but the value tags upon them has not. With players like Brett Gardner, Denard Span, Julio Borbon, Eric Young Jr. and Juan Pierre wading around past pick #100, why spend a top 50 pick on Ichiro or Ellsbury? SB are aplenty on the waiver wire -- when players get called up, they want to show their teams they can contribute in any and all ways possible and this usually translates into a plethora of SBs by even the fattest of minor leaguers.

There is absolutely no reason to spend big on Ellsbury (projected to hit .302 with 48 SB, 8 HR, 52 RBI, 84 R next season) when a player like Julio Borbon (projected to hit .297 with 35 SB, 6 HR, 47 RBI, 77 R next season) is going a full 100 picks later. CHONE projects fifteen players to steal 29+ bases next year and another six to steal 29. Almost all of them offer good value in Runs and many in Batting Average. There is absolutely no reason to waste your early round picks on "quality steals."

How slow are the white sox?

After watching just 2 white sox game this year, i have come to the observation that the sox may have the slowest team in the history of baseball. I may be exaggerating with an extremely small sample size, but speed is one of those things that you cant teach, and a team isnt suddenly going to deviate from their root mean square steal rate.

Lets take a quick look at the career steals and steals rate for the starting position players.

AJ Pierzynski: 9 Steals, 4172 PA, .216steals/PA percentage

Paul Konerko: 7 Steals, 6275 PA, .112steals/PA percentage

Chris Getz: 56 Steals, 1629 PA, 3.438 steals/PA percentage(minors)

Alexei Ramirez: 13 Steals, 512 PA, 2.539 steals/PA percentage

Josh Fields: 1 Steals, 481 PA, .208 steals/PA percentage

Carlos Quentin: 10 Steals, 1027 PA, .974 steals/PA percentage

Dewayne Wise: 21 Steals, 508 PA, 4.133 steals/PA percentage

Jermaine Dye: 46 Steals, 6644 PA, .692 steals/PA percentage

Jim Thome: 19 Steals, 9033 PA, .210 steals/PA percentage

Total: 182 Steals, 30281 PA, .601 steals/PA percentage

Not taking into account the age of most of these players, such that their 'fast' days are behind then, and taking into account Chris Getz' minor league steals rate, which should decline in the majors, the numbers work out to about 1 stolen base every 166 plate appearances for this group. Assuming an average number of 6200 plate appearances the sox are likely to accumulate this year, it works out to about 37 stolen bases for the starters. That is pitiful to say the least. I know that steals are becoming less relevant in the new age of baseball, but it also shows up in simply running the bases. Like scoring more than one run on 4 consecutive singles. The Padres only managed 36 steals last year, so this may not be the slowest team of all time, but it will be close.

Good luck playing small ball Ozzie