So I have helped you (or like two people who may have actually read and liked my drafting tips) on some basic tips on how how to draft and maintain a good team. If you talked to me in past week or so, you know I have told you some ideas on my thoughts on players but I did not want to divulge too much information because there are some keys guys I wanted and did not want others to really know about them. So here we go,
1) I literally did research on every single projected starter. This allowed me to see which positions had the most depth. To me, 3B, 1B, SP, and OF had the most depth. I thought 2B and especially SS were awesome at the top and while I thought they had little depth but still some quality guys like Kelly Johnson, Rickie Weeks, Christain Guzman, and Ryan Theriot that were available in much later rounds. For me, if I didn't get J-Roll, HanRam, or Jose Reyes in the first round, there was no reason to draft a SS until like the 18th round, which allowed for great flexibility. Despite some quality 2B I could get around the 15th round or so, I still wanted a top tier 2B which I had to get in the top 3 rounds.
2) I took on the Sam Walker/Fantasyland approach of the trifecta pitching. This really isn't hard to do in non-auction leagues but I really wanted some stud pitching at the top of my "rotation". Yes, there is plenty of SP depth, but if I stocked my team with late round SP, my "rotation" would be nothing more than average. Because I was able to get a quality SS and quality OF later in the draft, I was able to get those positions I wanted later while getting above average to great SP in earlier rounds. A big problem I found is that a lot of top tier pitchers were young and abused/ in the WBC so seemingly more prone to injury, guys like: Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Jake Peavy, and Roy Oswalt immediately came off my list. This left the top tier pool mainly consisting of Arizona pitchers. I ended up taking CC Sabathia as my first pick and although he's abused and I didn't like it a whole lot, I feel his past and his age make him a better candidate than most other pitchers.
3) My ideal players are guys with high BA (above .280), can go at least 15/15, and a high OPS. (To me, because R and RBI are not stats based on individual performance- they're based on the team and position in lineup- if a guy has power and can get on base a lot, they're more inclined to get R and RBI). Surprisingly, there were plenty of these guys which were: Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips, David Wright, Hanley Rameriz, Jose Reyes, Ryan Braun, Alfonso Soriano, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran, Hunter Pence, Matt Holliday, Jayson Werth, Elijah Dukes, Nate McLouth, and Matt Kemp. Pretty elite group, no? The problem is that once the 3rd round starts, you'd be hard pressed to find any of these players. But two guys on this list stuck out to me: Jayson Werth and Elijah Dukes. These are two quality guys that go under the radar and thus I can get at lower rounds. So then, all I did was take a closer look between these players to determine which ones I wanted.
4) There still are certain positions that needed to be filled so I filled those positions with specialized players- mainly players with a lot of HR or SB, preferably with a BA and OPS if possible. I used these players to fill 1B, OF, 3B, and Util (mainly depending on my position in the draft, i.e. if I got Pujols or Wright I wouldn't need to fill 1B/3B respectively) The big name that jumped out to me was Jacoby Ellsbury- a guy who will probably by one the of the best OF in terms of SB with a high BA and a decently high OPS. For 1B, I needed pure power foremost then comes BA. Because I was just decent in HR everywhere else, I just targeted Carlos Pena. Although his BA pisses me off a bit, I think it's OK considering my high BA elsewhere and like I said, HR comes first. The 3B I targeted was Garrett Atkins. In my research, he came up as an Aramis Rameriz but with a .300+ B.A., which comes extremely useful to me. And because he was less values in the draft than other 3B like ARam, I could get a quality 3B a bit later in the draft.
5) So here was a list of specific players I WANTED: Kinsler, Ellsbury, Dukes, and Werth. I love Kinsler and I knew that I probably couldn't get him unless I had a late first round pick, and just my luck, I had the 9th overall pick. In the first three rounds I wanted a combination of 2B, SP, SS, and OF. (Now I clearly would have to change my strategy depending on on my draft position but...) I was able to get Kinsler in the first. Now I wanted Johan Santana in the 2nd and thus get the best available OF in the third, but Since Johan was taken I went with one of the best OF on the board that fit #2 (which was Soriano- admittedly though I took this pick in haste) and luckily CC came to me in the 3rd. Honestly, I thought CC would get taken so the next top tier SP would have been Brandon Webb (and maybe in some ways Webb would have been better) but I didn't want to reach and Sabathia was still available. Now base on previous drafting I knew Ellsbury generally went in the 4th and Atkins generally in the 5th so while they may have been slight stretches, I wanted those players. So in the first five rounds I got a 2B, Of, SP, OF, and 3B. I knew Werth generally went in the 12th so that's where I picked him up and Dukes and Guzman/Theriot (really the only SS I liked outside the first round) go really late so I was able to get some quality SP and RP, I think, between rounds 8-15.
7) I had back up plans just in case things went wrong. Joey Votto was a great 1B to pick up in case the 1B went higher than positions I wanted to take a 1B; Corey Hart was my substitute to Ellsbury; I could get a quality 2B like Brian Roberts, Dustin Pedroia, or Brandon Phillips in the 3rd round or Rickie Weeks and Kelly Johnson in much later rounds; I could have (and did) gotten a SS really late in the draft; 3B was deep so if someone overvalued Atkins I was willing to go after I guy like Edwin Encarnacion in much later rounds; Chris Young would have been an acceptable substitute for Werth; Jack Cust and Jim Thome are fine power/Util guys in later rounds... Anyway, despite my structured attempts in round 1-6, I had a back up just in case.
So now I have given up my secrets for this year's draft. The only draft that mattered was David "MVP" Eckstein's pay league and now that that's done, feel free to take my secrets. Plus, my strategy will change for the next drafts, I could care less really if I lose others leagues, and I still have some players up my sleeve. Enjoy picking at my brain!
Fantasy Draft Results
| Bright One | Sexy Rexy | Eckstein | CubsFan | |
| C | Mauer | Iannetta | Napoli | Hernendez |
| 1B | Delgado | Atkins | Votto | Gonzalez |
| 2B | Weeks | Kinsler | Uggla | Roberts |
| SS | Tulowitzki | Guzman | Ramirez | Peralta |
| 3B | Youkilis | Wiggington | Zimmerman | Cabrera |
| OF | Sizemore | Soriano | Lee | Beltran |
| OF | BJ Upton | Ellsbury | Ramirez | Bay |
| OF | Bruce | Werth | Burrell | Abreu |
| Util | Ortiz | Pena | Beltre | Taveras |
| SP | Shields | Sabathia | Haren | Lackey |
| SP | Oswalt | Liriano | Beckett | Santana |
| SP | Lowe | Kazmir | Vazquez | Kershaw |
| RP | Hanrahan | Rivera | Qualls | Marmol |
| RP | Ray | Cordero | Valverde | Fuentes |
| P | Johnson | Slowey | Bedard | Wilson |
| P | Cueto | Jurrjens | Gallardo | Gonzalez |
| P | Meche | Francisco | Sanchez | Lindstrom |
| P | Jimenez | Myers | Morrow | Volstad |
| BN | Milledge | Rodriguez | Span | Sandoval |
| BN | N Cruz | Smoltz | Sheffield | Perez |
| BN | Maine | Hill | Posada | Kawakami |
| BN | Guthrie | Bradley | Motte | Litsch |
| BN | Escobar | Dukes | Parra | Marshall |
Carlos Pena Hits HRs, Signs Tacos
This might be the weirdest thing I've ever seen. Especially because they eat the taco.
Fangraphs: How Many Pitches Does It Take?
Fangraphs has a very interesting article out titled "How Many Pitches Does It Take? (Part One)" in which they look analyze the number of pitches various pitchers over the past three years, minimum 150 IP, have and break down ERA, FIP, K/9, BB/9, etc. per each number of pitch grouping.
Among the data, Fangraphs determined that:
Things to note:
o Pitchers who have less pitches seem to strike out more batters than pitchers with more pitches.
o Taking Ryan Franklin's numbers (sample size) out of the equation, it seems that there is a somewhat negligible difference in both walk rates and BABIP (although BABIP, for pitchers, has been proven to largely be the result of luck/statistical noise, not skill) between pitchers based on how many pitches they throw.
o Both HR/9 rates and FIP seem to improve as the of pitches a pitcher throws declines
What these three observations seems to indicate is that despite a "clear advantage in game theory" among pitchers with more pitches, pitchers who refine and maximize what they are best at seem to succeed more than pitchers who simply have more options at their disposal.
Finally, with regard to the chart, Fangraphs poses the following question:
Among the data, Fangraphs determined that:
"Franklin was the only pitcher with six pitches and 28 pitchers had five pitches qualify. Tradition has most starters throwing 3-4 pitches and most relievers having one or two. Tradition holds true here. 119 pitchers had four pitches qualify, 134 had three, and 39 had two. Franklin failed to make a start over the last three years meanwhile pitchers with 5 pitches saw 64% of their games come as starters, 60.2% for four pitch qualifiers, 32.2% for three pitches, and 11.7% for two pitches."Very cool stuff. The article also presents the following chart, breaking pitchers into groupings based on how many pitches they have (a pitch qualifies if thrown >5% of the time):
Things to note:
o Pitchers who have less pitches seem to strike out more batters than pitchers with more pitches.
o Taking Ryan Franklin's numbers (sample size) out of the equation, it seems that there is a somewhat negligible difference in both walk rates and BABIP (although BABIP, for pitchers, has been proven to largely be the result of luck/statistical noise, not skill) between pitchers based on how many pitches they throw.
o Both HR/9 rates and FIP seem to improve as the of pitches a pitcher throws declines
What these three observations seems to indicate is that despite a "clear advantage in game theory" among pitchers with more pitches, pitchers who refine and maximize what they are best at seem to succeed more than pitchers who simply have more options at their disposal.
Finally, with regard to the chart, Fangraphs poses the following question:
"Are the relievers skewing the two and three pitch numbers?"They plan to answer it tomorrow.
Baseball's Top Defenders, 2008
According to Fangraphs.com data the top 35 absolute fielders*, minimum 100 PA, of 2008 were:
Name---------------------Raw Fielding------Positional Adj.------NFR
Alex Rios------------------23.1--------------(3.5)------------------19.6
Franklin Gutierrez--------21.7--------------(5.8)------------------15.9
Jayson Werth-------------20.6--------------(4.5)------------------16.1
Chase Utley--------------19.5---------------2.3-------------------21.8
Carl Crawford------------16.1--------------(5.0)------------------11.1
Willie Harris--------------17.9--------------(3.3)------------------14.6
Randy Winn--------------17.3--------------(6.7)------------------10.6
Mark Ellis----------------17.0---------------1.7-------------------18.7
Orlando Cabrera----------16.4---------------7.5-------------------23.9
Carlos Gomez-------------15.4---------------2.4-------------------17.8
Evan Longoria------------15.0---------------1.8-------------------16.8
Gabe Gross---------------15.0--------------(5.5)------------------9.5
Jacoby Ellsbury-----------14.9--------------(3.2)------------------11.7
Endy Chavez--------------14.5--------------(5.5)------------------9.0
Mike Aviles---------------14.4---------------3.8-------------------18.2
Cody Ross-----------------14.0--------------(0.7)------------------13.3
Jay Payton----------------13.6--------------(3.2)------------------10.4
Jimmy Rollins-------------13.0---------------6.3-------------------19.3
Adrian Beltre--------------13.4--------------(1.6)------------------11.8
Mike Cameron-------------12.2--------------(1.9)------------------10.3
Marco Scutaro-------------12.1---------------3.2-------------------15.3
Brett Gardner-------------12.1--------------(0.5)------------------11.6
Brandon Phillips-----------11.4---------------2.2-------------------13.6
Adam Kennedy------------11.0---------------0.6-------------------11.6
Mark Teixeira-------------10.7--------------(12.2)----------------(1.5)
Austin Kearns-------------10.6--------------(4.0)------------------6.6
Adam Jones---------------10.3---------------2.0-------------------12.3
Dustin Pedroia-------------10.3---------------2.4-------------------12.7
Nick Markakis-------------10.1--------------(7.3)------------------2.8
Jack Hannahan-------------10.1---------------0.6-------------------10.7
Mike Lowell----------------9.9 ---------------1.5-------------------11.4
Marlon Byrd---------------9.6---------------(2.4)------------------7.2
Carlos Gonzalez------------9.5---------------(0.5)------------------9.0
Joey Votto-----------------9.3---------------(11.7)----------------(2.4)
Garret Anderson-----------9.3---------------(10.5)----------------(1.2)
*These fielding runs are calculated without positional adjustments, meaning that SS and 1B who have equal run prevention at their position, despite the disparity in difficulty between fielding at each position, will be ranked equally. I was too lazy to rank players by net defensive worth, so I just ranked them by total fielding run prevention. Positional adjustments weight player's time spent at each position and assigns a relative incremental/decremental runs adjustment to said player to account for the relative difficult/ease of fielding and playing time at any position. This means that SS are given a positive adjustment, while 1B are given a negative adjustment. Furthermore, a SS who plays 150 games will get a larger positional adjustment that a SS who plays only 100 games. A player who splits time between 1B and SS will have his two weighted adjustments combined and thus for him, the positional adjustment is a net positional adjustment. Basically, positional adjustments are utilized to account for the difficulty of play and scarcity of talent at each defensive position. If you divide Net Fielding Runs (NFR) by 10, you will get a rough estimate of how many defensive wins a player contributed to their team.
Technically, I should be looking at a player's composite value runs (offensive runs+fielding runs+positional adjustment+replacement level runs), but this is a simplified defensive model. What should be obvious is that 1B is such a relatively easy position to play that even Mark Teixeira's defensive prowess fails to cancel out the positional adjustment. I'm sure several shortstops also have higher net fielding runs than guys on this list like Joey Votto, but the ranking by fielding runs does give a nice look into which players have the best pure defensive ability at each of their positions. Clearly, Alex Rios was the best OF, Utley the best 2B, etc. What is really interesting to me is that this chart highlights the true value of Orlando Cabrera (23.9 NFR), whose offensive contributions (-5 runs per season (-1/2 win) average since 2002) are minimal.
I kind of wish there was an easy way to calculate each team's combined defensive fielding runs. Alas, it would be a pain in the ass to do (accurately). Perhaps I'll spend some time later this week adding the numbers of each team's starting positional players and report my findings/rank teams.
I also apologize for the lack of visual organization of my chart. I did it without the aid of Excel (never again!) and the blog won't maintain the organization I created using dashes.
Name---------------------Raw Fielding------Positional Adj.------NFR
Alex Rios------------------23.1--------------(3.5)------------------19.6
Franklin Gutierrez--------21.7--------------(5.8)------------------15.9
Jayson Werth-------------20.6--------------(4.5)------------------16.1
Chase Utley--------------19.5---------------2.3-------------------21.8
Carl Crawford------------16.1--------------(5.0)------------------11.1
Willie Harris--------------17.9--------------(3.3)------------------14.6
Randy Winn--------------17.3--------------(6.7)------------------10.6
Mark Ellis----------------17.0---------------1.7-------------------18.7
Orlando Cabrera----------16.4---------------7.5-------------------23.9
Carlos Gomez-------------15.4---------------2.4-------------------17.8
Evan Longoria------------15.0---------------1.8-------------------16.8
Gabe Gross---------------15.0--------------(5.5)------------------9.5
Jacoby Ellsbury-----------14.9--------------(3.2)------------------11.7
Endy Chavez--------------14.5--------------(5.5)------------------9.0
Mike Aviles---------------14.4---------------3.8-------------------18.2
Cody Ross-----------------14.0--------------(0.7)------------------13.3
Jay Payton----------------13.6--------------(3.2)------------------10.4
Jimmy Rollins-------------13.0---------------6.3-------------------19.3
Adrian Beltre--------------13.4--------------(1.6)------------------11.8
Mike Cameron-------------12.2--------------(1.9)------------------10.3
Marco Scutaro-------------12.1---------------3.2-------------------15.3
Brett Gardner-------------12.1--------------(0.5)------------------11.6
Brandon Phillips-----------11.4---------------2.2-------------------13.6
Adam Kennedy------------11.0---------------0.6-------------------11.6
Mark Teixeira-------------10.7--------------(12.2)----------------(1.5)
Austin Kearns-------------10.6--------------(4.0)------------------6.6
Adam Jones---------------10.3---------------2.0-------------------12.3
Dustin Pedroia-------------10.3---------------2.4-------------------12.7
Nick Markakis-------------10.1--------------(7.3)------------------2.8
Jack Hannahan-------------10.1---------------0.6-------------------10.7
Mike Lowell----------------9.9 ---------------1.5-------------------11.4
Marlon Byrd---------------9.6---------------(2.4)------------------7.2
Carlos Gonzalez------------9.5---------------(0.5)------------------9.0
Joey Votto-----------------9.3---------------(11.7)----------------(2.4)
Garret Anderson-----------9.3---------------(10.5)----------------(1.2)
*These fielding runs are calculated without positional adjustments, meaning that SS and 1B who have equal run prevention at their position, despite the disparity in difficulty between fielding at each position, will be ranked equally. I was too lazy to rank players by net defensive worth, so I just ranked them by total fielding run prevention. Positional adjustments weight player's time spent at each position and assigns a relative incremental/decremental runs adjustment to said player to account for the relative difficult/ease of fielding and playing time at any position. This means that SS are given a positive adjustment, while 1B are given a negative adjustment. Furthermore, a SS who plays 150 games will get a larger positional adjustment that a SS who plays only 100 games. A player who splits time between 1B and SS will have his two weighted adjustments combined and thus for him, the positional adjustment is a net positional adjustment. Basically, positional adjustments are utilized to account for the difficulty of play and scarcity of talent at each defensive position. If you divide Net Fielding Runs (NFR) by 10, you will get a rough estimate of how many defensive wins a player contributed to their team.
Technically, I should be looking at a player's composite value runs (offensive runs+fielding runs+positional adjustment+replacement level runs), but this is a simplified defensive model. What should be obvious is that 1B is such a relatively easy position to play that even Mark Teixeira's defensive prowess fails to cancel out the positional adjustment. I'm sure several shortstops also have higher net fielding runs than guys on this list like Joey Votto, but the ranking by fielding runs does give a nice look into which players have the best pure defensive ability at each of their positions. Clearly, Alex Rios was the best OF, Utley the best 2B, etc. What is really interesting to me is that this chart highlights the true value of Orlando Cabrera (23.9 NFR), whose offensive contributions (-5 runs per season (-1/2 win) average since 2002) are minimal.
I kind of wish there was an easy way to calculate each team's combined defensive fielding runs. Alas, it would be a pain in the ass to do (accurately). Perhaps I'll spend some time later this week adding the numbers of each team's starting positional players and report my findings/rank teams.
I also apologize for the lack of visual organization of my chart. I did it without the aid of Excel (never again!) and the blog won't maintain the organization I created using dashes.
Miller to Morgan to Phillips. Triple play!
I wonder if fire joe morgan would have shut down their site if they knew steve phillips would be added to the sunday night baseball broadcast. He increases the stupidity of that telecast exponentially, such that funzies will be had all year long. Tonight was just the beginning as the new triple play combo(yeah that's my knew name for them) teamed up to call the semifinal WBC game between Japan and the US. Japan won and will face S. Korea for the championship, but Darvish will not be pitching tomorrow night cause the manager decided he's rather have Darvish close a 5 run lead in the 9th as opposed to start in the championship game.
There was one hilarious quote from Joe Morgan in the 9th inning. Miller was telling a story where Jimmy Rollins joked to Derek Jeter that Jeter never steals any bases. Morgan came out to defende the all mighty Derek Jeter by saying that
"Jeter used to steal much more in his younger days, but only in clutch situation"
Once again proving that Jeter is captain clutch. Everything this guy does is clutch. Even his outs have a strategic clutchness to them that only Jeter can comprehend. The reason Jeter hasn't won a championship since 2000 is because he has been lulling the competition into a false sense of security until he can clutch up for a 5th title.
There was one hilarious quote from Joe Morgan in the 9th inning. Miller was telling a story where Jimmy Rollins joked to Derek Jeter that Jeter never steals any bases. Morgan came out to defende the all mighty Derek Jeter by saying that
"Jeter used to steal much more in his younger days, but only in clutch situation"
Once again proving that Jeter is captain clutch. Everything this guy does is clutch. Even his outs have a strategic clutchness to them that only Jeter can comprehend. The reason Jeter hasn't won a championship since 2000 is because he has been lulling the competition into a false sense of security until he can clutch up for a 5th title.
Sexy Rexy’s Drafting Tips
With Opening Day seemingly right around the corner, I'm sure you all are in the midst of drafting for your fantasy baseball team. Wait, what am I saying, I know all five people who read this blog and you all are in my fantasy league. So because I know you will be drafting soon, I'm here to help you out.
Although I would like to say, I've never played roto before this year and the three years prior I haven't done THAT well so maybe I don't have the best ethos (read more Aristotle dude), but I'm confident these tips will help. Also, I did win my fantasy football league a couple months ago so maybe I'm on the up and up? Haha
Pre-Draft:
1. You can never do enough research. For any fantasy sports, you are essentially predicting the future. MVP Eckstein has done a great job in his analysis of John Danks and Edison Volquez and how they might fare in 2009. Unfortunately, that analysis is long and tedious. I personally have signed up for baseball prospectus for offensive players and have my own system using certain past stats for all pitchers. MVP Eckstein also posted a bit back about some free websites to help you out. Me personally, I have analysis of every single projected starter (both offense and defense). The point is I recommend you find a way to get analysis on every single player and then some. This may seem excessive, but you can never do enough research
2. Know what stats your league has. I'm in four league and all have different stats they use to judge players. Not all leagues use the basic 5x5 format. In another random football league I was in last year, I didn't realize that essentially one great to above average QB could win head-to-head match ups for you by himself every week. This fucked me because in my normal Fantasy Football strategy is to draft a QB late so I got sort of a shitty QB. Clearly I did not win that league.
3. Ready, aim, TARGET! Make sure you have multiple players you are targeting, for both big guys AND sleepers.
4. Strategery. Have a specific strategy in mind. Take Fantasyland for example. Author Sam Walker had a pitching strategy mind; he was going to take two stud SP and one stud RP and hoped to build enough of a pitching lead to then trade away from P for offense. Have something like this in mind.
5. Don't worry about big names. Trust whatever research you do.
6. Practice, practice, practice! There are many great sites like MockDraftCentral or ESPN that you can go to hone your skills
During Draft:
7. Play the expectations game. The key to drafting is all relative to how other people view the players you want. Don't trust that counter thing on the side of yahoo or ESPN or whatever. For example, I drafted a player probably WAY too high, but I don't really care. I got most of the players I wanted later in the draft PLUS this one player. People may have laughed at me then but we'll see who's laughing when we actually play. If you've done all the above well, don't worry about what other people think of your picks
8. Adjust. For by now you've come up with a pretty solid draft strategy. That will change because there will always be people who don't know what they're doing or people who will take a player who want and you'll be like, "WTF! Why would you ever take THAT player so high!?" It'll happen and you need to prepare for it. So despite all your preparation, practice, and targeting, just be aware that things won't go as planned.
9. Learn from your mistakes. I myself have of course made a few and that hopefully will help me for this year
10. Don't be hatin! Don't draft a player just to spite someone else. I.E.- last year in the second to last round I took Pat Neshek to spite MVP Eckstein instead of this reliever I had on my team last year who I recently found out was going to be a closer, George Sherill. Sherill was picked up in free agency the next day. Sherill racked up SV and Ks and was a quality undrafted free agent closer. Neshek was out most of the year. The joke was on me.
11. Take risks in the very last rounds. Once you reach towards the end of the draft, the players that you can choose from are pretty slim. Unless there is a player you are targeting or think should have been drafted higher or something along those lines, draft risks. Chances are, no matter what, your last round picks won't be on your team anyway.
Post Draft:
12. Be on the lookout for breakout players. I'm sure not many people in your league last year drafted people like Edison Volquez, Carlos Quentin, or Nate McLouth. Do your best to get them early but look at peripherals to make sure you're not just getting a player who's having a good couple weeks and then will suck again (I don't know what peripherals actually are but there's a way to look at them)
13. Patience is a virtue. I myself am I huge hypocrite of this because I am an impatient motherfucker and I'm positive this will hurt me when I play roto this year but it's something I, and you, should do.
14. Don't be complacent. Be on the lookout to help your team but don't make any trades or pick up any guys just for the sake of it.
This is all the tips I'm going to give away right now. I'll tell you guys my strategy after our drafts. Happy drafting!
Although I would like to say, I've never played roto before this year and the three years prior I haven't done THAT well so maybe I don't have the best ethos (read more Aristotle dude), but I'm confident these tips will help. Also, I did win my fantasy football league a couple months ago so maybe I'm on the up and up? Haha
Pre-Draft:
1. You can never do enough research. For any fantasy sports, you are essentially predicting the future. MVP Eckstein has done a great job in his analysis of John Danks and Edison Volquez and how they might fare in 2009. Unfortunately, that analysis is long and tedious. I personally have signed up for baseball prospectus for offensive players and have my own system using certain past stats for all pitchers. MVP Eckstein also posted a bit back about some free websites to help you out. Me personally, I have analysis of every single projected starter (both offense and defense). The point is I recommend you find a way to get analysis on every single player and then some. This may seem excessive, but you can never do enough research
2. Know what stats your league has. I'm in four league and all have different stats they use to judge players. Not all leagues use the basic 5x5 format. In another random football league I was in last year, I didn't realize that essentially one great to above average QB could win head-to-head match ups for you by himself every week. This fucked me because in my normal Fantasy Football strategy is to draft a QB late so I got sort of a shitty QB. Clearly I did not win that league.
3. Ready, aim, TARGET! Make sure you have multiple players you are targeting, for both big guys AND sleepers.
4. Strategery. Have a specific strategy in mind. Take Fantasyland for example. Author Sam Walker had a pitching strategy mind; he was going to take two stud SP and one stud RP and hoped to build enough of a pitching lead to then trade away from P for offense. Have something like this in mind.
5. Don't worry about big names. Trust whatever research you do.
6. Practice, practice, practice! There are many great sites like MockDraftCentral or ESPN that you can go to hone your skills
During Draft:
7. Play the expectations game. The key to drafting is all relative to how other people view the players you want. Don't trust that counter thing on the side of yahoo or ESPN or whatever. For example, I drafted a player probably WAY too high, but I don't really care. I got most of the players I wanted later in the draft PLUS this one player. People may have laughed at me then but we'll see who's laughing when we actually play. If you've done all the above well, don't worry about what other people think of your picks
8. Adjust. For by now you've come up with a pretty solid draft strategy. That will change because there will always be people who don't know what they're doing or people who will take a player who want and you'll be like, "WTF! Why would you ever take THAT player so high!?" It'll happen and you need to prepare for it. So despite all your preparation, practice, and targeting, just be aware that things won't go as planned.
9. Learn from your mistakes. I myself have of course made a few and that hopefully will help me for this year
10. Don't be hatin! Don't draft a player just to spite someone else. I.E.- last year in the second to last round I took Pat Neshek to spite MVP Eckstein instead of this reliever I had on my team last year who I recently found out was going to be a closer, George Sherill. Sherill was picked up in free agency the next day. Sherill racked up SV and Ks and was a quality undrafted free agent closer. Neshek was out most of the year. The joke was on me.
11. Take risks in the very last rounds. Once you reach towards the end of the draft, the players that you can choose from are pretty slim. Unless there is a player you are targeting or think should have been drafted higher or something along those lines, draft risks. Chances are, no matter what, your last round picks won't be on your team anyway.
Post Draft:
12. Be on the lookout for breakout players. I'm sure not many people in your league last year drafted people like Edison Volquez, Carlos Quentin, or Nate McLouth. Do your best to get them early but look at peripherals to make sure you're not just getting a player who's having a good couple weeks and then will suck again (I don't know what peripherals actually are but there's a way to look at them)
13. Patience is a virtue. I myself am I huge hypocrite of this because I am an impatient motherfucker and I'm positive this will hurt me when I play roto this year but it's something I, and you, should do.
14. Don't be complacent. Be on the lookout to help your team but don't make any trades or pick up any guys just for the sake of it.
This is all the tips I'm going to give away right now. I'll tell you guys my strategy after our drafts. Happy drafting!
Alexei=Next Ozzie?
Doesn't anyone remember how bad Ozzie Guillen was at baseball? Have the colorful years of him playing "small ball" with scappy grinders, calling reporters fags and raping sex dolls with baseball bats tainted the black and white stats he (failed to) put up during fifteen year career? The Daily Herald is heralding Alexi Ramirez (.336 wOBA in 2008) as the next Ozzie Guillen (career wOBA of .275, .292 career high wOBA). Sigh.
The beginning of this article is uselessly boring, so let me skip to the "interesting" parts.
On an groundbreaking side note, I'm watching the WBC and Joe Morgan just criticized Adam Dunn because he is "happy to take walks" when runners are in scoring position instead of "being more aggressive at the plate." Steve Phillips agrees.
The beginning of this article is uselessly boring, so let me skip to the "interesting" parts.
"[Alexei Ramirez is] just a good athlete, and above all, he wants to be good. He's hungry to be a great player in this league and you can see that when he works and you can see that when he's on the field that he's hungry. It comes through and you can see it."
Synonyms for hunger: grindiness, small ball, fire in the belly, David Eckstein.
Watching Ramirez play shortstop this spring has been quite a sight.
Cabrera was a Gold Glove shortstop who had an off year in his brief stay with the White Sox.
Before that, Juan Uribe was about as good of a shortstop as there was in baseball.
With the exception of 2004 -- when Uribe posted a league average .346 wOBA and contributed +1 wins with his defense -- Uribe has neither been defensively outstanding (+.25 fielding wins above average) nor offensively relevant (.306 career wOBA) in Chicago.
And before that, current manager Ozzie Guillen played the position at a pretty high level.
A mythical and lofty .264/.287/.338 level.
With his own flair, Guillen has already conceded Ramirez is better.
Ozzie Guillen was one of the worst players in the history of baseball, producing a negative win value for his team in every season he played. Just not playing shortstop makes you a better shortstop than Ozzie Guillen. Players like Mark Prior who spend the entire season on the DL have a higher win contribution (zero) than Ozzie Guillen. He was literally that bad. He was literally that bad.
"He's always making jokes on me," Ramirez said. "He's always, 'I was better than you. I was better than you.' I just say, 'OK.' I will try to be as good as him, maybe not better. I don't like to be compared to anyone, but I'm trying to be close to the way Ozzie played."
Did I mention Ozzie hit .264/.287/.338 in his career?
Guillen was the last Sox shortstop to win a Gold Glove, in 1990. Is Ramirez destined to be the next?
Last year, Orlando Cabrera's defense was worth +1.6 wins (the most among all starting shortstops by a .3 win (19%) margin). AL Golden Glove winner Michael Young's defense was worth -.25 wins, making him the seventh worst starting shortstop in baseball. Gold Glove awards are almost as useless a criteria by which to evaluate a player's defensive ability as comparing a shortstop's potential to the worst shortstop in the history of baseball (Ozzie Guillen).
If your wife tells you to do something, it'd be wise to oblige."There are so many good shortstops in the American League, so that's not something I can come out and say," Ramirez said. "But my wife (Mildred) told me one time I should win the Gold Glove. I don't want to put pressure on myself, but I do have it in my mind."
If Ramirez wants to go for the gold, Konerko has a suggestion.
"He's got a big arm; it's plenty strong enough," Konerko said. "He's going to make a lot of highlight plays this year, there's no question about that. I know nothing about playing shortstop,
Great advice, Konerko. "I know nothing about playing shortstop, but if you do what I say, you will be great at playing shortstop." Konerko goes on to say:
"You're going to see some plays made this year; you're going to see him on (ESPN's) 'Web Gems' a lot."
A third useless criteria by which to evaluate a shortstop is by the number of web gems he racks up in a season.
On an groundbreaking side note, I'm watching the WBC and Joe Morgan just criticized Adam Dunn because he is "happy to take walks" when runners are in scoring position instead of "being more aggressive at the plate." Steve Phillips agrees.
Experts in College Basketball
Every year we here people telling us how to figure out our brackets. During this time of year, there's nothing really big happening in sports (But Sexy Rexy, what about the WBC? 1) That just recently started and it's not every year. 2) Like I said nothing really BIG happening) so ESPN is forced to talk about March Madness. Every single person and their mother is telling us who to pick. This year, the President weighed in on the issue. And every year people are wrong. NCAA places teams unnecessarily too high and unnecessarily too low, the average fan doesn't know too much about any real mid-major teams, and the single elimination format all are reasons that people fill out their bracket wrong and end up ripping it up after the first three days.
Now ESPN sounds like they can have some real nice analysis here. I heard guys like Digger Phelps explain why teams will win based on certain player match ups and certain defenses teams are prone too/ teams can execute. For example, Digger helped me to know that LSU is a good match up for UNC because of the defense LSU players can execute and the lack of defense by UNC (Sure, UNC beat LSU by 14, but who cares about outcomes, right?). However, no matter what, upsets are bound to happen.
But sometimes, as the analysts loves to do, ESPN makes some mistakes. Here's something my brother pointed out to me:
"Bob Knight thinks part of Memphis' problem is that it played mediocre teams to finish the season. Bob feels that this is the best thing that could have happened to the Tigers."
What? Is it a problem or not? I'm confused. Plus, my favorite thing about the quote is that when Bob Knight THINKS, Memphis is in trouble. But when Bob Knight FEELS, everything's okay for Memphis. The moral according to ESPN? Don't think, just feel. (The above sarcasm is also from my bro)
Now the Final Four is different. You have to win four games to get there and the best teams, the vast majority of the time, tend to make it to the Final Four. In fact, as this site always loves, you can create statistical analysis to determine the Final Four, The Championship Game, and the Winner of it all. A Georgia Tech professor actually created a formula to determine The Final Four and above
Thus formula over the past few years have proven to be extremely accurate. But again, this doesn't help for the four earlier round where many who can create a points edge on the people in your pool
I understand why ESPN has so much coverage dedicated to March Madness. They have to. They're a 24/7 sports news station. They also have to have analysis and predictions. But what I think is important here, is that you really don't listen to those predictions. There's so many conflicting viewpoints between analysts and the fact it you can;t use any logic or reason to say who's gonna win, at least in the first few rounds. So if you're bracket is still competitive and you enjoy college basketball, have fun for the next few weeks or so. But as for me, I'm going to tune out ESPN and focus all of new attention on fantasy baseball drafting. Only one more week baby!
Now ESPN sounds like they can have some real nice analysis here. I heard guys like Digger Phelps explain why teams will win based on certain player match ups and certain defenses teams are prone too/ teams can execute. For example, Digger helped me to know that LSU is a good match up for UNC because of the defense LSU players can execute and the lack of defense by UNC (Sure, UNC beat LSU by 14, but who cares about outcomes, right?). However, no matter what, upsets are bound to happen.
But sometimes, as the analysts loves to do, ESPN makes some mistakes. Here's something my brother pointed out to me:
"Bob Knight thinks part of Memphis' problem is that it played mediocre teams to finish the season. Bob feels that this is the best thing that could have happened to the Tigers."
What? Is it a problem or not? I'm confused. Plus, my favorite thing about the quote is that when Bob Knight THINKS, Memphis is in trouble. But when Bob Knight FEELS, everything's okay for Memphis. The moral according to ESPN? Don't think, just feel. (The above sarcasm is also from my bro)
Now the Final Four is different. You have to win four games to get there and the best teams, the vast majority of the time, tend to make it to the Final Four. In fact, as this site always loves, you can create statistical analysis to determine the Final Four, The Championship Game, and the Winner of it all. A Georgia Tech professor actually created a formula to determine The Final Four and above
Thus formula over the past few years have proven to be extremely accurate. But again, this doesn't help for the four earlier round where many who can create a points edge on the people in your pool
I understand why ESPN has so much coverage dedicated to March Madness. They have to. They're a 24/7 sports news station. They also have to have analysis and predictions. But what I think is important here, is that you really don't listen to those predictions. There's so many conflicting viewpoints between analysts and the fact it you can;t use any logic or reason to say who's gonna win, at least in the first few rounds. So if you're bracket is still competitive and you enjoy college basketball, have fun for the next few weeks or so. But as for me, I'm going to tune out ESPN and focus all of new attention on fantasy baseball drafting. Only one more week baby!
What DID Happen To Andruw Jones?
I was writing a post for the blog titled "Whatever Happened To Andruw Jones" in which I was attempting to discover what the hell happened to the once fiercesome force that trolled the outfield and trotted the based of Turner field. I looked at many different reference points -- his K rates, BB rates, LD rates, etc. -- and came up empty. I ultimately cannot explain what happened to Jones.
On one side, Jones has been swinging at more pitches outside the zone and making less contact with pitches in the zone, so you'd think "hey, his pitch recognition is off", right? But over this same time period, Jones has simulataneous increased his walk rate. I thought "maybe it's his declining batspeed", but noticed that Jones' contact rate (with the exception of last season) has remained relatively constant -- in fact, his contact rate with pitches outside the zone has offset his decreased in-the-zone contact rates. Jones' ISO plummeted in 2007, despite the fact that he increased his single season LD% against his three year average between 2004 and 2006. As Jones was hitting more LD and less GBs, his power somehow DECREASED.
I can't figure the guy out. What happened? Jones is still a defensive monster (well, except last year -- but some combination of diminished playing time and cake could be to blame for that), but his offensive skills just aren't translating anymore. Jones has always struck out a lot (and thus owns a mediocre career BA), but made up for it with power and a decent walk clip. Now that Jones is walking more and hitting less balls on the ground, why are his numbers plummeting? Andruw Jones is only 31; shouldn't there still be some gas left in the tank?
Please, someone help.
On one side, Jones has been swinging at more pitches outside the zone and making less contact with pitches in the zone, so you'd think "hey, his pitch recognition is off", right? But over this same time period, Jones has simulataneous increased his walk rate. I thought "maybe it's his declining batspeed", but noticed that Jones' contact rate (with the exception of last season) has remained relatively constant -- in fact, his contact rate with pitches outside the zone has offset his decreased in-the-zone contact rates. Jones' ISO plummeted in 2007, despite the fact that he increased his single season LD% against his three year average between 2004 and 2006. As Jones was hitting more LD and less GBs, his power somehow DECREASED.
I can't figure the guy out. What happened? Jones is still a defensive monster (well, except last year -- but some combination of diminished playing time and cake could be to blame for that), but his offensive skills just aren't translating anymore. Jones has always struck out a lot (and thus owns a mediocre career BA), but made up for it with power and a decent walk clip. Now that Jones is walking more and hitting less balls on the ground, why are his numbers plummeting? Andruw Jones is only 31; shouldn't there still be some gas left in the tank?
Please, someone help.
Jim Calhoun is Sick. Oh No! Stop the Presses!
Tonight, Jim Calhoun's #1 seeded UConn is going up against #16 seed Chattanooga. But, unfortunately for the Huskies, their fearless leader is sick and will not coach the team tonight.
Oh No! What ever will UConn do? Robert Flores asked a blogger reporting on Calhoun's status "Will UConn be able to win tonight UConn?" Really!? Did you really need to ask that!? Yes, of course UConn, will win tonight! No matter what! Even if I coached the team tonight UConn will win! No #1 seed have ever lost to #16 ever and it will NEVER happen.
Seriously, ESPN, shut the fuck up about Jim Calhoun. Stop telling us "This is a continuous story that you will be monitoring all day." He probably has the flu or some shit. It's not a big deal. So what UConn won't tell us what Calhoun had. Unless it's like cancer or AIDS or something, nobody cares.
I hate you so much ESPN
Oh No! What ever will UConn do? Robert Flores asked a blogger reporting on Calhoun's status "Will UConn be able to win tonight UConn?" Really!? Did you really need to ask that!? Yes, of course UConn, will win tonight! No matter what! Even if I coached the team tonight UConn will win! No #1 seed have ever lost to #16 ever and it will NEVER happen.
Seriously, ESPN, shut the fuck up about Jim Calhoun. Stop telling us "This is a continuous story that you will be monitoring all day." He probably has the flu or some shit. It's not a big deal. So what UConn won't tell us what Calhoun had. Unless it's like cancer or AIDS or something, nobody cares.
I hate you so much ESPN
Just how bad is Dunn's defense
Just my luck, i came across UZR ratings analysis since 2002 done by the baseball analysts. Only two players have been worse in the outfield, however, both Griffey and Bernie used to be great so they get a reprieve. No such excuse for adam dunn. Also, how great was Andruw Jones! How quickly the mighty fall
Adam Dunn sucks at first base too
We all know by now that Adam Dunn is a butcher in left field. Considering this is the easiest position on the field, the prospects of Dunn being less of a defensive liability at a different position is minuscule. His fielding value the past 4 years according to fangraphs is -18.9, -13.9, -20, and -28 last years. This is monumentally bad. It may be all time bad for all i know. Anyway, Davey Johnson decided to put adam dunn at first base for the USA v Venezuela game tonight due to the injury of kevin youkili. No surprisingly, dunn committed a throwing error at first base that led to 4 unearned runs. Team USA lost 10-6. Thankfully, the US has secured a spot in the semifinals, so i suggest Dunn goes back to left field and hope no balls come his way
In Defense Of Steroids, Part II
You can read my initial, "Part I", post here
One argument you have probably heard over and over again about steroids and their users, is that while steroids might not have been illegal in baseball, they were illegal to use in the United States. Therefore, alleged or proven users were still breaking U.S. law. It is this argument that is used to put down and look even further down upon steroid users. But I want to use an example to disprove this point.
Player A: Alex Rodriguez
ARod admitted to using steroids (although I'm going to refuse to believe this the same way that a "smoking gun" found in a home without a warrant, although is indisputable evidence, it's still not allowed in court because it violates the 4th amendment, but I digress...). For the rest of his career, he will forever be associated as a steroids user. There will a clout of secrecy and guilt surrounding him forever about his stats and his playing career. ARod (according to his story but that's beside the point) did steroids in a place where it was legal but his being ostracized for it. Even if ARod takes a piss test after every game and is 100% clean from now on and goes on to break the HR record, his career will still be tainted.
Player B: Josh Hamilton (I hope you see where I'm going with this)
This young man has great natural talent and that's why the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays drafted him #1 a few years back. However, Hamilton became addicted to heroin and drugs with relegated him out of baseball during the beginning of his career. Hamilton broke US laws not not baseball laws (Yes, I'm sure there's a technical clause in the MLB contract that you can't do illegal drugs but what Hamilton didn't violate the sanctity of the game). Hamilton put on a great show at the 2008 Home Run Derby and went on to have a damn fine 2008 year and 2009 looks just as good. If Hamilton stays clean, he will probably go on to have a damn fine career. We applauded Hamilton for what he has been able to do. So while he broke US law, we are still proud he stopped and was able to overcome.
What hypocrisy is this!? Let's assume both players never do drugs again and both go on to have careers that force people to look back and say "Damn, those players were good!" People will look back on Hamilton in an extremely positive light. People will be even more impressed that he was able to do it as a former addict. But not ARod. No mater, ARod will always have the negative stigma attached to him. Both men broke the US law and took drugs they were not allowed to take. Except one was related to baseball and one was not. Clearly, the drugs related the baseball appear to be much more "punishable".
So please, stop with the whole "it violated US law" excuse. Also, please read my original post "In Defense of Steroids", so you can get a better understanding of steroids and baseball and why, no mater what, you shouldn't look down on steroid users.
One argument you have probably heard over and over again about steroids and their users, is that while steroids might not have been illegal in baseball, they were illegal to use in the United States. Therefore, alleged or proven users were still breaking U.S. law. It is this argument that is used to put down and look even further down upon steroid users. But I want to use an example to disprove this point.
Player A: Alex Rodriguez
ARod admitted to using steroids (although I'm going to refuse to believe this the same way that a "smoking gun" found in a home without a warrant, although is indisputable evidence, it's still not allowed in court because it violates the 4th amendment, but I digress...). For the rest of his career, he will forever be associated as a steroids user. There will a clout of secrecy and guilt surrounding him forever about his stats and his playing career. ARod (according to his story but that's beside the point) did steroids in a place where it was legal but his being ostracized for it. Even if ARod takes a piss test after every game and is 100% clean from now on and goes on to break the HR record, his career will still be tainted.
Player B: Josh Hamilton (I hope you see where I'm going with this)
This young man has great natural talent and that's why the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays drafted him #1 a few years back. However, Hamilton became addicted to heroin and drugs with relegated him out of baseball during the beginning of his career. Hamilton broke US laws not not baseball laws (Yes, I'm sure there's a technical clause in the MLB contract that you can't do illegal drugs but what Hamilton didn't violate the sanctity of the game). Hamilton put on a great show at the 2008 Home Run Derby and went on to have a damn fine 2008 year and 2009 looks just as good. If Hamilton stays clean, he will probably go on to have a damn fine career. We applauded Hamilton for what he has been able to do. So while he broke US law, we are still proud he stopped and was able to overcome.
What hypocrisy is this!? Let's assume both players never do drugs again and both go on to have careers that force people to look back and say "Damn, those players were good!" People will look back on Hamilton in an extremely positive light. People will be even more impressed that he was able to do it as a former addict. But not ARod. No mater, ARod will always have the negative stigma attached to him. Both men broke the US law and took drugs they were not allowed to take. Except one was related to baseball and one was not. Clearly, the drugs related the baseball appear to be much more "punishable".
So please, stop with the whole "it violated US law" excuse. Also, please read my original post "In Defense of Steroids", so you can get a better understanding of steroids and baseball and why, no mater what, you shouldn't look down on steroid users.
The Blackhawks are chocking, hard
Remember all those nice things i had to say about the 2009 Blackhawks? Well forget that shit. They are currently tanking. They're still going to make the playoffs, probably as the number 4 seed with home field advantage, but at this pace they will destroyed in the first round. It's a compilation of many things.
1) The defense, which has been the best and most important part of the team is in shambles right now. Duncan Keith, the best defenseman is a -5 in the past 5 games, while being a league leader at +30 for the season. He has been out of position too much and seems to be pressing to get out of the slump. Brian Campbell, the all-star we're paying 8 mil per has recently been booed by the home crowd for avoiding physical contact, which leads to opponents extending possessions and scoring goals. One recent game was lost solely due to Campbell, as he was responsible for giving up 3 goals. One where he tried a spin-a-rama where he fell and allowed a breakaway goal. Then he failed to clear the puck from the defensive zone. And then avoided a check in the defensive zone, giving the puck to the opponents leading to a third goal. Yeah, he deserved to get booed. They traded one of our best offensive defensemen in James Wisnieski for some forward who can score at all. Apparently he's very good defensively, and on the faceoff, but the guy hasnt played for us yet due to injury. Yeah, not exactly Ilya Kovalchuck.
2) Khabibulin being injured for 15 games didnt help. Huet was forced to play nearly everyday, and appeared to get very tired in the final few games. Some rook, anti niiemi, replaced the bulin wall and was awful himself.
3) The biggest problem right now is the head coach, Joe Quinvuille. After taking charge of this team when he took over for Savard after like 3 games, he is starting to lose control of this team. He seems to be trying new line combinations within games, which is wrong because the established lines have had success and he should stick with them. breaking up the line of Havlet, Bowland, and Ladd is just dumb, as they have been out best line all year long. Also, having Toews and Kane on the same line with the improving troy brauwer, was getting better and better every game. Now the lines are so messed up, and even the d-line is being juggled, that Quinville is only digging a deeper whole.
God i hope the blackhawks can turn this slump around, before we get sweaped out of the playoffs
1) The defense, which has been the best and most important part of the team is in shambles right now. Duncan Keith, the best defenseman is a -5 in the past 5 games, while being a league leader at +30 for the season. He has been out of position too much and seems to be pressing to get out of the slump. Brian Campbell, the all-star we're paying 8 mil per has recently been booed by the home crowd for avoiding physical contact, which leads to opponents extending possessions and scoring goals. One recent game was lost solely due to Campbell, as he was responsible for giving up 3 goals. One where he tried a spin-a-rama where he fell and allowed a breakaway goal. Then he failed to clear the puck from the defensive zone. And then avoided a check in the defensive zone, giving the puck to the opponents leading to a third goal. Yeah, he deserved to get booed. They traded one of our best offensive defensemen in James Wisnieski for some forward who can score at all. Apparently he's very good defensively, and on the faceoff, but the guy hasnt played for us yet due to injury. Yeah, not exactly Ilya Kovalchuck.
2) Khabibulin being injured for 15 games didnt help. Huet was forced to play nearly everyday, and appeared to get very tired in the final few games. Some rook, anti niiemi, replaced the bulin wall and was awful himself.
3) The biggest problem right now is the head coach, Joe Quinvuille. After taking charge of this team when he took over for Savard after like 3 games, he is starting to lose control of this team. He seems to be trying new line combinations within games, which is wrong because the established lines have had success and he should stick with them. breaking up the line of Havlet, Bowland, and Ladd is just dumb, as they have been out best line all year long. Also, having Toews and Kane on the same line with the improving troy brauwer, was getting better and better every game. Now the lines are so messed up, and even the d-line is being juggled, that Quinville is only digging a deeper whole.
God i hope the blackhawks can turn this slump around, before we get sweaped out of the playoffs
2 words to describe 2009 Bears: Illegal Formation
It has just come to my attention that the Bears currently only have 2 offensive lineman on their roster. I'm pretty sure that isnt enough to play with, so our offense will just consist of endless 5 yard illegal formation penalties until we have to punt. I guess this isnt too different from the bears normal offense. Apparently John Tait decided to retire, cant blame the guy cause playing left tackle will mess up your body. That should save the bears a bunch of cap room, but dont count on them signing anyone of value. John St. Claire signed with the Browns. I think this is actually a positive, as i've never seen a guard get beat any more than St. Clair has in his career.
I suppose this guarantees the bears draft some o-lineman early in the draft. With Chris Willaims and whoever they draft, the bears o-line will be extremely young, surrounding the extremely old Olen Krutz. Can't wait for football season! Yippee
ESPN Commercial
So there's this commercial running on ESPN. It's John C. McGineley (or some of you may know him as Dr. Cox) as the voice over. He says "ESPN.com slash" (then there's a visual after each pause of a person in a 'box' corresponding to the voice over) "fantasy baseball" (visual of Grady Sizemore) "Rumors" (visual of Buster Olney taking phone calls) "Mr. Roto's Mailbag" (visual of Matthew Berry with lots of bags full of mail) "Trades" ( a visual of Grady Sizemore and Matt Holliday)
Anyway, the whole point of me mentioning this commercial is the fact that in a fantasy baseball league someone actually traded Grady Sizemore for Matt Holliday. Who would do that? What a terrible trade! You know what, it actually makes sense because the person who gets Holliday turns out to be a chick and obviously chicks don't know baseball. Eckstein, get some more chicks in our fantasy league!
Anyway, the whole point of me mentioning this commercial is the fact that in a fantasy baseball league someone actually traded Grady Sizemore for Matt Holliday. Who would do that? What a terrible trade! You know what, it actually makes sense because the person who gets Holliday turns out to be a chick and obviously chicks don't know baseball. Eckstein, get some more chicks in our fantasy league!
Saves
In fantasy baseball, saves are overrated. With picks like Papelbon early, players pay high for 10% (in a 5x5 standard) of their impact points. When four category players like Curtis Granderson are still on the board, it is silly to waste a pick on a guy who will surely rack up saves and slightly help your ratios when you know that late in the draft there will be no 3/4 category players left, buts still plenty of guys who will get you saves and not hurt your ratios.
In the large scheme of things, the average RP tosses what, 70 innings? Most players employ 2-3 closers, depending on both the quality and availability of closers in the draft/free agency pool. Even with 3 guys, the average total impact of those relievers would be 210 IP, the innings equivalent of what a top 30 starter would toss. Assuming an 1800 IP limit that come standard in a Yahoo roto league, that cumulative 210 IP comprises less than 12% of your team's total innings allocation. A combined RP core with a 3.00 ERA, 180 K, 210 IP, 1.10 WHIP line (with some scattered Ws here and there) would slightly help a team whose starting pitching core were to average a 3.75 ERA, 165 K, 1.3 WHIP and 190 IP per SP (based on what it takes to win according to Roto Authority) by boosting some average ratios, but how much would adding an inferior RP core that racked up a comparable amount of saves across the same IP hurt a team?
Let's say instead of drafting Papelbon, Mariano Rivera and Bobby Jenks (a combined 120 SVs) last year, you drafted Brian Wilson, Kevin Gregg and George Sherrill (a combined 102 SVs)? You would not necessarily clear the saves category for 10 points, but you would still be in a prime position to rack up respectable saves numbers with late round draft picks. While last year Papelbon (49 ADP), Rivera (72 ADP) and Jenks (107 ADP) combined for a valuable 2.11 ERA (47 ER), 14 W, 120 SV, 192 K, .90 WHIP line across roughly 202 IP, Gregg (292 ADP), Sherrill (237 ADP) and Wilson (155 ADP) combined for a 4.41 (90 ER), 13 W, 102 SV, 183 K, 1.40 WHIP in about 184 IP. While the latter groups line isn't nearly as pretty as the elite RP's line, the variance between the two groups is much more overstated that you'd expect, based on 2009 ADP.
quick sidenote: obviously some changes to this grouping would need to be made on the basis of facts like Sherrill being replaced by Chris Ray midseason or Kevin Gregg not being the closer (even though he should, allowing the Cubs to continue to maximize Marmol's use in high leverage situations), but these guys could easily be substituted for late round 2009 closers like Chad Qualls (204 ADP) or Joel Hanrahan (198 ADP); the general point of this argument remains the same.
As you might observe, the difference in counting stats productions between these two groups of RPs in 2008 was somewhat negigible. 9 Ks and 1 W is more the byproduct of circumstance than opportunity. As noted earlier, being 18 SVs short of 3 of the top 5 closers going into 2008 with late round picks would put you in prime position to stay competitive in the SVs category.
The combined line of the elite RP core would surely improve your teams ratios to better approach "what it takes to win", but at the cost of 3/4 category offensive guys. On the other hand, the 4.40 ERA over 184 IP accumulated by the inferior RP core would constitute a 10.2% impact on all 1800 IP, causing a 3.75 ERA line to rise to 3.81. By contrast, the elite RP core's impact would constitute 11.2% of all IP and lower ERA from 3.75 to a 3.56 line. A similar impact is observable on WHIP (the elite RP core lowers whip to 1.25, the inferior RP core increases WHIP to 1.31).
What we can observe here is that while the elite RP core does positively impact pitching statistics, the inferior RP core simultaneously NEGLIGIBLY impacts the pitching line -- while the superior RP core lowers ERA well below the projected "what it takes to win" threshold (while also lowering WHIP a sizeable chunk), the inferior RP core only increases ERA by .06 and whip by .01. With smart drafting of SPs (who have much more impact on cumulative pitching statistics than RPs, mind you), this tiny impact of the inferior RP core could easily be offset, while gaining the benefit of a 3/4 category hitter or two early in the draft (by forgoing the elite RP in favor of an "inferior one").
What is very roughly observable here is the overrated impact of RPs based on draft position. Inferior RPs can easily put up comparable counting stats without hurting your ratios if you draft smart. Comparatively, late game hitters (minus sleepers, which can be harder to effectively forecast) generally cannot produce comparable offensive numbers to early round hitters. Come picks 180+, the hitters left in the pool are generally one category guys and offensive gambles. If you go with an early RP, late hitter strategy, you are maximizing risk (by forgoing more reliable/valuable hitters) and minimizing overall return, which is somewhat irrational in the investment game known as drafting. Smarter investment would call for the strategy of simply ignoring RPs until the later rounds (or just ignoring saves all together and focusing on the other 9 categories; why not try maximizing 90% of your potential against balancing 100%? It is equally as viable if done properly).
A lot of this knowledge is "conventional wisdom" for baseball drafters; I'm just putting some rough numbers behind the assertion. Now that that is established, let's move on to the point of my post: rules of thumb for drafting Closers (btw, I should go back in my post to modify all references to RPs as CLs, but you can infer what I mean and as I mentioned earlier, I'm lazy).
If it isn't obvious by now, I think closers are overrated. I rarely draft them (because so many guys lose their jobs midseason), but when I do, I like to look for bargains. I look for guys who meet the following criteria (in this order):
1) Job security
2) Save opportunity potential
First and foremost, if you are going to draft a closer, you want to draft a guy who is going to close. Why waste a pick on a guess (ie, who is closing in Seattle for 2009) when you can probably pick up the person who the closer out of spring training loses the job to off of waivers within a week or two? Why also waste a pick on a closer who has a better RP who may unseat him from the closing role behind him? To me, it seems like a waste of a pick that you could spend gambling on a guy like Denard Span or Shin-Soo Choo.
Secondly, I like a guy who is going to get the chance to save games. This doesn't mean a closer for an offensive friendly team like the Red Sox or Yankees, but closers for teams like The Pirates and Royals, where every one of their 70 wins per season is a save opportunity. Last year, I got Matt Capps, Joakim Soria and Brian Wilson at incredibly discounted prices and they paid off big time.
If you want my recommendation of who to draft, I'd recommend Brandon Lyon (because no one in Detroit is really healthier than him who can throw strikes), Brian Wilson (who has great stuff and no one to unseat him), Heath Bell (the Padres are notoriously committed to keeping their closer the closer during the season, no matter how hard he struggles) and Grant Balfour (the healthier, younger, better option for Tampa; Balfour for Closer is as inevitable as was Obama for President).
That's all for now; it's late and I'm tired. Apologies for spelling/grammar errors; I just wrote this from beginning to end in one sitting and am (yes, you guessed it) too lazy to re-read/edit tonight.
What we can observe here is that while the elite RP core does positively impact pitching statistics, the inferior RP core simultaneously NEGLIGIBLY impacts the pitching line -- while the superior RP core lowers ERA well below the projected "what it takes to win" threshold (while also lowering WHIP a sizeable chunk), the inferior RP core only increases ERA by .06 and whip by .01. With smart drafting of SPs (who have much more impact on cumulative pitching statistics than RPs, mind you), this tiny impact of the inferior RP core could easily be offset, while gaining the benefit of a 3/4 category hitter or two early in the draft (by forgoing the elite RP in favor of an "inferior one").
What is very roughly observable here is the overrated impact of RPs based on draft position. Inferior RPs can easily put up comparable counting stats without hurting your ratios if you draft smart. Comparatively, late game hitters (minus sleepers, which can be harder to effectively forecast) generally cannot produce comparable offensive numbers to early round hitters. Come picks 180+, the hitters left in the pool are generally one category guys and offensive gambles. If you go with an early RP, late hitter strategy, you are maximizing risk (by forgoing more reliable/valuable hitters) and minimizing overall return, which is somewhat irrational in the investment game known as drafting. Smarter investment would call for the strategy of simply ignoring RPs until the later rounds (or just ignoring saves all together and focusing on the other 9 categories; why not try maximizing 90% of your potential against balancing 100%? It is equally as viable if done properly).
A lot of this knowledge is "conventional wisdom" for baseball drafters; I'm just putting some rough numbers behind the assertion. Now that that is established, let's move on to the point of my post: rules of thumb for drafting Closers (btw, I should go back in my post to modify all references to RPs as CLs, but you can infer what I mean and as I mentioned earlier, I'm lazy).
If it isn't obvious by now, I think closers are overrated. I rarely draft them (because so many guys lose their jobs midseason), but when I do, I like to look for bargains. I look for guys who meet the following criteria (in this order):
1) Job security
2) Save opportunity potential
First and foremost, if you are going to draft a closer, you want to draft a guy who is going to close. Why waste a pick on a guess (ie, who is closing in Seattle for 2009) when you can probably pick up the person who the closer out of spring training loses the job to off of waivers within a week or two? Why also waste a pick on a closer who has a better RP who may unseat him from the closing role behind him? To me, it seems like a waste of a pick that you could spend gambling on a guy like Denard Span or Shin-Soo Choo.
Secondly, I like a guy who is going to get the chance to save games. This doesn't mean a closer for an offensive friendly team like the Red Sox or Yankees, but closers for teams like The Pirates and Royals, where every one of their 70 wins per season is a save opportunity. Last year, I got Matt Capps, Joakim Soria and Brian Wilson at incredibly discounted prices and they paid off big time.
If you want my recommendation of who to draft, I'd recommend Brandon Lyon (because no one in Detroit is really healthier than him who can throw strikes), Brian Wilson (who has great stuff and no one to unseat him), Heath Bell (the Padres are notoriously committed to keeping their closer the closer during the season, no matter how hard he struggles) and Grant Balfour (the healthier, younger, better option for Tampa; Balfour for Closer is as inevitable as was Obama for President).
That's all for now; it's late and I'm tired. Apologies for spelling/grammar errors; I just wrote this from beginning to end in one sitting and am (yes, you guessed it) too lazy to re-read/edit tonight.
WBC Injury+David Letterman
So I'm watching the Cuba v Mexico game on ESPN 2 and Cuban pitcher Jorge Vera seemingly injured himself on the mound. The manager came out, talked to Vera and I guess told him to work through it or something, because Vera stayed on the mound. Two pitches later, he collapsed in pain and had to be carried off the field
Classic pitcher abuse. I wonder if Dusty Baker is watching...
Anyone notice that Lindstrom, Braun, Chipper and Pedroia have all been injured on Team USA? Further proof that this stupid competition is useless.
On a related note, here is the funny clip from David Letterman detailing the top ten reasons to watch the WBC:
Classic pitcher abuse. I wonder if Dusty Baker is watching...
Anyone notice that Lindstrom, Braun, Chipper and Pedroia have all been injured on Team USA? Further proof that this stupid competition is useless.
On a related note, here is the funny clip from David Letterman detailing the top ten reasons to watch the WBC:
I Hate Jerry Angelo SO MUCH!
So I'm watching ESPN's First Take right now and Chicago Tribune sports reporter Dan Pompei is talking about the Bears. He says that 1) The Bears will be holding a mini-camp in two weeks before the draft so Angelo can "evaluate his players" and 2) The Bears didn't pick up anyone in free agency because according to Angelo this was one of the worst free agency class he's seen in a while
1) How do you know know the status of your players Angelo!? Did you miss that whole 16 games you recently played!? Was the regular season not good enough for you realize your players suck that you need to hold a mini-camp before the draft!? Seriously, what better evaluation will be done before the draft that wasn't already done before? The team didn't really add any players that Angelo should feel the need to do a whole huge process.
2) Speaking of adding players, WTF Angelo! Your team went 9-7. You lost the last game of the season to miss the playoffs and your team looked terrible against quality teams. The Vikings are good, have good lines, and are always looking to get better and the Packers were injury riddled and should be MUCH better for next year. I'll agree with Angelo that the draft class this year was pretty weak, but these "weak" players are still better than the shit the Bears have on their team. You still need to improve every year!
Pompei said also that Angelo didn't want to "waste money". What, like the contracts to Brian Urlacher and Tommy Harris weren't bad enough! But seriously, Angelo isn't running a fucking baseball team in Oakland, he has plenty of money and plenty of cap room to work with. Money shouldn't be THAT much of an issue for the fucking football team in Chicago.
Jesus I hate Chicago GMs (except maybe the Blackhawks GM, he seems to be doing a good job)
1) How do you know know the status of your players Angelo!? Did you miss that whole 16 games you recently played!? Was the regular season not good enough for you realize your players suck that you need to hold a mini-camp before the draft!? Seriously, what better evaluation will be done before the draft that wasn't already done before? The team didn't really add any players that Angelo should feel the need to do a whole huge process.
2) Speaking of adding players, WTF Angelo! Your team went 9-7. You lost the last game of the season to miss the playoffs and your team looked terrible against quality teams. The Vikings are good, have good lines, and are always looking to get better and the Packers were injury riddled and should be MUCH better for next year. I'll agree with Angelo that the draft class this year was pretty weak, but these "weak" players are still better than the shit the Bears have on their team. You still need to improve every year!
Pompei said also that Angelo didn't want to "waste money". What, like the contracts to Brian Urlacher and Tommy Harris weren't bad enough! But seriously, Angelo isn't running a fucking baseball team in Oakland, he has plenty of money and plenty of cap room to work with. Money shouldn't be THAT much of an issue for the fucking football team in Chicago.
Jesus I hate Chicago GMs (except maybe the Blackhawks GM, he seems to be doing a good job)
Mark Prior's $1 Million Scam
The Padres apparently loved paying Mark Prior $1 million dollars to not pitch last year so much that they gave him another million to not pitch again in 2009. Here's a chart of his injuries to date (courtesy of Wikipedia).
Sigh
Does anyone remember a week or so ago when I said that Rick Sutcliffe made a boo-boo on air and said Jeff Francoeur injured himself by sneezing? Well he's doing it again. Someone should probably tell him that he's thinking of Sammy Sosa. Sutcliffe is (starting to sound) stupid. God forbid an ESPN analyst say something (stupid and) incorrect on air.
David Eckstein's Projected Stat Line
No not our "beloved" David "MVP" Eckstein, the real one. According to BP here is what he is expected to do next year: .267/.330/.339; 3 SB, 1 CS; 1 HR, 1 3B, 12 2B; 28 R; 20 BB; 10 VORP and only out of baseball after three more years of playing. He's my fantasy sleeper pick, STAY AWAY FROM HIM!!!
Hubert Davis Hates the Big Ten, No Surprise There
Hubert Davis is a part of ESPN's "Bracketology" team. He's the token black guy on the squad (No offense, but seriously look at everyone else on the team). I don't really like college basketball too much and I don't really watch too much ESPN analysis too much either, but after just watching all of about five minutes of Davis' analysis the past few days, I feel like I have to revert back to GOI's roots and complain.
Yesterday, Hubert Davis was talking about "the eye test" to determine the quality of the teams on the bubble. Everyone else was talking about RPI and Strength of Schedule, you know statistics that help determine how good a team is. But not good ol' Hubert. Nope, he's not going to be persuaded by this "Moneyball" generation of sports. Instead, out of the 32 Division-I divisions that probably have an average of 11 teams, Hubert Davis is going to watch about 352 teams and he's going to rank in his head all of them, especially the top 65!
Then today, the Bracketology crew was discussing the quality of the Big Ten, how many teams the Big Ten should have, whether Penn State, a bubble team, deserves to go and what have you. Of course, being it ESPN, the big Midwest conference, the Big Ten, HAS to get shit on. And the shitter- Hubert Davis. First, he mentions how much the Big Ten sucks. Then he mentions how painful it is to watch Big Ten play. And it is because of these two facts that the Big Ten should get as little teams as possible!
First of all! well ok, Big Ten play is absolutely horrible to watch. He mentioned how team can have the score of 20-20 at the half, and this part is true. I'm a big fan of the Big Ten, but even I can't watch it, even when my team, Illinois, is playing. But that is still no excuse to exclude Big Ten teams because of this! Just because teams play knock out-drag out defense, doesn't mean they should not be in the playoffs! Should we take away the Ravens Superbowl win because there offense couldn't score for shit? Absolutely not. Team should be rewarded and praised that they play defense. In fact, you just can not go far in the tourny WITHOUT playing defense.
Second, THE BIG TEN IS THE SECOND BEST CONFERENCE IN THE FUCKING LEAGUE! I don't know where Davis gets this, but the Big Ten is the #2 conference under the #1 ACC according to RPI. Davis was talking about how the Big Ten sucks, how much better the Big East is and therefore the Big Ten shouldn't send 8 teams. What are you basing this off of? Sure, the very top of the Big East is probably more loaded with UConn, Pitt, and Louisville versus really just Michigan State. But this is not about the top of the conference, it's about the conference as a whole! And just a sidenote: the Big East is not #3 in conference RPI, that's the Big 12. Big East is actually fourth.
Big Ten teams in the top 65 according to RPI:
4) Michigan State
18) Illinois
30) Purdue
35) Ohio St
40) Minnesota
42) Michigan
44) Wisconsin
The Big Ten deserves to send 7 teams. Penn State is #68 according to the RPI and despite wins over the top of the Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, and twice over Illinois, they do not deserve to go. It's not because the Big Ten sucks or because Penn State plays quality defense and horrible-looking offense (HUBERT DAVIS!), but because Penn State has a low RPI and because of automatic bids due to conference tournaments. Teams who didn't win in the regular season but won their conference tournament (i.e. USC, Cleveland St) took bids away from teams like Penn State. Seriously, I don't understand how analysts like Hubert David are allowed to spew such nonsense and lies, all the fuck time! Fuck ESPN.
Yesterday, Hubert Davis was talking about "the eye test" to determine the quality of the teams on the bubble. Everyone else was talking about RPI and Strength of Schedule, you know statistics that help determine how good a team is. But not good ol' Hubert. Nope, he's not going to be persuaded by this "Moneyball" generation of sports. Instead, out of the 32 Division-I divisions that probably have an average of 11 teams, Hubert Davis is going to watch about 352 teams and he's going to rank in his head all of them, especially the top 65!
Then today, the Bracketology crew was discussing the quality of the Big Ten, how many teams the Big Ten should have, whether Penn State, a bubble team, deserves to go and what have you. Of course, being it ESPN, the big Midwest conference, the Big Ten, HAS to get shit on. And the shitter- Hubert Davis. First, he mentions how much the Big Ten sucks. Then he mentions how painful it is to watch Big Ten play. And it is because of these two facts that the Big Ten should get as little teams as possible!
First of all! well ok, Big Ten play is absolutely horrible to watch. He mentioned how team can have the score of 20-20 at the half, and this part is true. I'm a big fan of the Big Ten, but even I can't watch it, even when my team, Illinois, is playing. But that is still no excuse to exclude Big Ten teams because of this! Just because teams play knock out-drag out defense, doesn't mean they should not be in the playoffs! Should we take away the Ravens Superbowl win because there offense couldn't score for shit? Absolutely not. Team should be rewarded and praised that they play defense. In fact, you just can not go far in the tourny WITHOUT playing defense.
Second, THE BIG TEN IS THE SECOND BEST CONFERENCE IN THE FUCKING LEAGUE! I don't know where Davis gets this, but the Big Ten is the #2 conference under the #1 ACC according to RPI. Davis was talking about how the Big Ten sucks, how much better the Big East is and therefore the Big Ten shouldn't send 8 teams. What are you basing this off of? Sure, the very top of the Big East is probably more loaded with UConn, Pitt, and Louisville versus really just Michigan State. But this is not about the top of the conference, it's about the conference as a whole! And just a sidenote: the Big East is not #3 in conference RPI, that's the Big 12. Big East is actually fourth.
Big Ten teams in the top 65 according to RPI:
4) Michigan State
18) Illinois
30) Purdue
35) Ohio St
40) Minnesota
42) Michigan
44) Wisconsin
The Big Ten deserves to send 7 teams. Penn State is #68 according to the RPI and despite wins over the top of the Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, and twice over Illinois, they do not deserve to go. It's not because the Big Ten sucks or because Penn State plays quality defense and horrible-looking offense (HUBERT DAVIS!), but because Penn State has a low RPI and because of automatic bids due to conference tournaments. Teams who didn't win in the regular season but won their conference tournament (i.e. USC, Cleveland St) took bids away from teams like Penn State. Seriously, I don't understand how analysts like Hubert David are allowed to spew such nonsense and lies, all the fuck time! Fuck ESPN.
Why I Hate College Basketball, Part II: Conference Tournaments
While sure I did not write Part I, I feel there's another aspect of college basketball that sucks that wasn't mentioned before, conference tournaments.
In every other sport, how a team does in the regular season determines the playoffs seeding. Not in college basketball. In the college game, it's not only the regular season but also "a pre playoffs" or the conference tourny that determines March Madness seeding (and speaking of March Madness, can we please change the title of that considering most of the tournament now takes place in April). See, after your regular season, all the teams in your conference play each other. The winner of this tournament gets an automatic bid to the Big Dance. So, if your team sucks and even has a losing record, you still have the opportunity to go Dancing (let's see how many "Cinderella" references I can make in this post, so far I'm at 2. Does anyone remember Illinois last year? They SUCKED with a capital "S" yet they still had the opportunity to be a low seed Cinderella (3) team because they made it to the Big Ten finals. Now luckily (well not for me being a fan but luckily from an objective position) Illinois lost to Wisconsin (who was #1 in the Big Ten), but Illinois never should have had the opportunity to go in the first place.
Now I understand the nature of playoffs is reduced to luck, and especially in college basketball where the Big Dance (4) is single elimination and where anything can happen, but teams for the most part earned the right to be given a chance. If you play hard and play well throughout an entire season, you should have the opportunity to make the playoffs. But if you get lucky and just so happens to win three or four games, what makes you so good to go Dancing (5)?
Look at teams like Cleveland St who beat 17th overall ranked Butler. Does winning one lucky game against a ranked opponent means who DESERVE to be a part of the 64(5) teams. No. Butler, who beat opponents all year long deserved to and should have been the winner of Horizon conference, but instead it's Cleveland St. Now Butler is going to be in the tourny, but now Horizon conference will have two teams going instead of one. This means that teams on "the bubble" is now eliminated. There are a handful of teams that played pretty well to deserve to go Dancing (6) but now can't because of sheer luck by teams like Cleveland St. The winner of these conference games weakens the overall quality of the bracket tournament because they force more deserving teams out.
Now, I'm not advocated against automatic bids, to the contrary. I like automatic bids, just not from conference tournament play. I think the automatic bid though should come from regular season play and not tournament play. That way, Butler would automatically go and teams like Cleveland St., who had the opportunity all season long to win the Horizon conference, don't get to go.
Now one argument I heard against this was that people love Cinderella (7) teams. Fans love teams like George Mason, a low seed that everyone counted out yet plays well, and these conference games not only allow fans to watch Cinderella's (8)to emerge like Cleveland St but also allows more of these types of team to play in the Big Dance (9). Here's the thing, 1) how many people truly watched all these minor conferences like the Horizon tournament? I can't imagine very many except for fans of the particular schools and 2) Do people honestly think upsets won't occur if there isn't conference tournaments? I would argue that upsets would occur more frequently because more quality teams (teams that have proven themselves over the course of an entire season) would play over teams that just got lucky within 3-4 games. I guarantee you major upsets will occur and teams like George Mason will happen without conference tournaments.
Now I understand why this happens. The same reason college football doesn't implement a playoff- money. Conferences make a lot of money of these tournaments. And if I was the commissioner of a conference like the Horizon league, I would be happy that two if my teams were guaranteed to Go Dancing (9) instead of just one. However, I, as a below average fan, would love to do away with the conference tournaments. Plus, now March Madness could actually be played in the month of March!
Also, total Cinderella references: 9. How many can you spot while watching ESPN? Make a drinking game out of it!
___________________________________________________________
Just an update. the Big Ten finals will be Purdue versus Ohio State. What if Ohio State wins? Are they the best team in the Big Ten? No. Do they automatically deserve to go to the Tournament? NO. Now Purdue, a team guaranteed to make the tourny, could end up winning and then this won't be a problem. But seriously, examples like this happen all time and this just helps strengthen my point.
In every other sport, how a team does in the regular season determines the playoffs seeding. Not in college basketball. In the college game, it's not only the regular season but also "a pre playoffs" or the conference tourny that determines March Madness seeding (and speaking of March Madness, can we please change the title of that considering most of the tournament now takes place in April). See, after your regular season, all the teams in your conference play each other. The winner of this tournament gets an automatic bid to the Big Dance. So, if your team sucks and even has a losing record, you still have the opportunity to go Dancing (let's see how many "Cinderella" references I can make in this post, so far I'm at 2. Does anyone remember Illinois last year? They SUCKED with a capital "S" yet they still had the opportunity to be a low seed Cinderella (3) team because they made it to the Big Ten finals. Now luckily (well not for me being a fan but luckily from an objective position) Illinois lost to Wisconsin (who was #1 in the Big Ten), but Illinois never should have had the opportunity to go in the first place.
Now I understand the nature of playoffs is reduced to luck, and especially in college basketball where the Big Dance (4) is single elimination and where anything can happen, but teams for the most part earned the right to be given a chance. If you play hard and play well throughout an entire season, you should have the opportunity to make the playoffs. But if you get lucky and just so happens to win three or four games, what makes you so good to go Dancing (5)?
Look at teams like Cleveland St who beat 17th overall ranked Butler. Does winning one lucky game against a ranked opponent means who DESERVE to be a part of the 64(5) teams. No. Butler, who beat opponents all year long deserved to and should have been the winner of Horizon conference, but instead it's Cleveland St. Now Butler is going to be in the tourny, but now Horizon conference will have two teams going instead of one. This means that teams on "the bubble" is now eliminated. There are a handful of teams that played pretty well to deserve to go Dancing (6) but now can't because of sheer luck by teams like Cleveland St. The winner of these conference games weakens the overall quality of the bracket tournament because they force more deserving teams out.
Now, I'm not advocated against automatic bids, to the contrary. I like automatic bids, just not from conference tournament play. I think the automatic bid though should come from regular season play and not tournament play. That way, Butler would automatically go and teams like Cleveland St., who had the opportunity all season long to win the Horizon conference, don't get to go.
Now one argument I heard against this was that people love Cinderella (7) teams. Fans love teams like George Mason, a low seed that everyone counted out yet plays well, and these conference games not only allow fans to watch Cinderella's (8)to emerge like Cleveland St but also allows more of these types of team to play in the Big Dance (9). Here's the thing, 1) how many people truly watched all these minor conferences like the Horizon tournament? I can't imagine very many except for fans of the particular schools and 2) Do people honestly think upsets won't occur if there isn't conference tournaments? I would argue that upsets would occur more frequently because more quality teams (teams that have proven themselves over the course of an entire season) would play over teams that just got lucky within 3-4 games. I guarantee you major upsets will occur and teams like George Mason will happen without conference tournaments.
Now I understand why this happens. The same reason college football doesn't implement a playoff- money. Conferences make a lot of money of these tournaments. And if I was the commissioner of a conference like the Horizon league, I would be happy that two if my teams were guaranteed to Go Dancing (9) instead of just one. However, I, as a below average fan, would love to do away with the conference tournaments. Plus, now March Madness could actually be played in the month of March!
Also, total Cinderella references: 9. How many can you spot while watching ESPN? Make a drinking game out of it!
___________________________________________________________
Just an update. the Big Ten finals will be Purdue versus Ohio State. What if Ohio State wins? Are they the best team in the Big Ten? No. Do they automatically deserve to go to the Tournament? NO. Now Purdue, a team guaranteed to make the tourny, could end up winning and then this won't be a problem. But seriously, examples like this happen all time and this just helps strengthen my point.
Horrible Trades, Wiped Out Farm Systems
Did you know that the anemic pitching system of the Texas Rangers once simulataneously included Chris Young (traded with Adrian Gonzalez for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka), Edinson Volquez (traded for Josh Hamilton) and John Danks (traded for Brandon McCarthy)? With Josh Hamilton being the notable exception, the Rangers have basically given away several of their top players (including Mark Teixeira) over the years for "top prospects" that never panned out (replacing traded talent with aged veterans like Vincent Padilla, Kevin Millwood and Eric Gange).
Scarier than this situation is that of the Detroit Tigers, who traded the entire farm in less than two years (primarily in one offseason). Since the end of the 2007 season, the Tigers have given away Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Jair Jurrjens, Matt Joyce, Gorky Hernandez and Burke Badenhop (in addition to a few other no name guys) and only received Miguel Cabrera (who is great), Dontrelle Willis (who has been the opposite of great since 2006) and Edgar Renteria (who is old and inconsistent) in return. Of those three, only Miguel Cabrera is expected to be on the major league roster in 2009. The Tigers' minor league system is pretty barren, with 2007 draft pick Rick Porcello being the lone retained talent. Doom and gloom looms for Detroit fans past 2010.
Just think, Detroit fans, this is what the core of your team COULD have looked like in 2009:
C - Greg Laird
1B - Magglio Ordonez (he can't hurt you as bad defensively if you shove him at first)
2B - Placido Polanco
SS - Adam Everett
3B - Carlos Guillen
OF - Curtis Granderson
OF - Matt Joyce
OF - Cameron Maybin
DH - Gary Sheffield
SP - Justin Verlander, Jair Jurrjens, Andrew Miller, Armando Galaragga, Rick Porcello
Instead, you have Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and D-Train. Congratulations, Dave Dombrowski.
Scarier than this situation is that of the Detroit Tigers, who traded the entire farm in less than two years (primarily in one offseason). Since the end of the 2007 season, the Tigers have given away Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Jair Jurrjens, Matt Joyce, Gorky Hernandez and Burke Badenhop (in addition to a few other no name guys) and only received Miguel Cabrera (who is great), Dontrelle Willis (who has been the opposite of great since 2006) and Edgar Renteria (who is old and inconsistent) in return. Of those three, only Miguel Cabrera is expected to be on the major league roster in 2009. The Tigers' minor league system is pretty barren, with 2007 draft pick Rick Porcello being the lone retained talent. Doom and gloom looms for Detroit fans past 2010.
Just think, Detroit fans, this is what the core of your team COULD have looked like in 2009:
C - Greg Laird
1B - Magglio Ordonez (he can't hurt you as bad defensively if you shove him at first)
2B - Placido Polanco
SS - Adam Everett
3B - Carlos Guillen
OF - Curtis Granderson
OF - Matt Joyce
OF - Cameron Maybin
DH - Gary Sheffield
SP - Justin Verlander, Jair Jurrjens, Andrew Miller, Armando Galaragga, Rick Porcello
Instead, you have Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and D-Train. Congratulations, Dave Dombrowski.
