As anyone who follows this blog/does a player name search on this blog will tell you, I am a huge Josh Beckett fan. Despite his poor surface numbers (ERA, Wins), Josh Beckett was still good in 2008 -- just incredibly unlucky. Beckett's inflated BABIP (.327 in 2008, .303 career) and abnormally high LD% (25.2% in 2008, 19.7% career) collectively conspired against his peripherals (3.2 FIP) to produce a less than flashy 4.03 ERA.
The increased line drive rate (bad) comes against a control rate (K/BB) that has increased (good) for three straight season (2.14, 4.85, 5.06). Since 2007, Beckett has shaved his BB/9 rate to a stingy and consistent 1.78, while increasing his K rate from 8.70 to 8.88 to 9.73. Dig a little deeper into Beckett's numbers and you will find that since 2004, Beckett has posted a 1.2 GB/FB every year like clockwork.
Diagnosis? Fate hates Josh Beckett. Last season's numbers indicate that he should have been better and this year's peripherals say nothing different. Despite a 7.22 ERA, 1.81 WHIP and 36 hits in under 29 IP, Beckett's FIP, thanks to quality HR/9 and stellar K/9 rates, sits at a significantly less scary 4.04. Beckett's been uncharacteristically wild this season (5.02 BB/9), but even if you were to expect him to regress to his pre-Red Sox career average walk rate (3.2 per nine), his K/BB would still be +3. Is it so unreasonable to expect a guy who has posted a consistent sub-1.8 BB/9 rate each of the past two seasons to regain command of his pitches? Beckett's simply not as wild as he has been in his last three starts (6.31 BB/9) and the rest of his peripherals are all solid (9.73 K/9, 0.94 HR/9) and in line with his numbers over the past two seasons.
The case of Josh Beckett is one of pure bad lack that will correct itself over the course of a 30+ start season. Matthew Berry has as an irrational hatred of Beckett as he did with Bartolo Colon in his prime (on his Fantasy Focus podcast last week, Berry claimed he would rather have Dice-K over Beckett, which is absolutely absurd) and you should take advantage of any owner who faithfully subscribes to Berry's word or shares his impatient irrationalities. Beckett will get better and this is the perfect time to get him at a deep discount.
Even if you can't steal Josh Beckett from an owner in your league, you could probably get away with swapping him out for James Shields before their respective ERA's and WHIP 's flip flop. You might even be able to get a nice toss-in with the deal (David Aardsma? Jarrod Washburn?).
How is a high line drive rate bad luck?
ReplyDeleteThats like saying bob howry was really really unlucky last year
I didn't say the high LD rate was. I was saying the rest of his peripherals things should cool off and get better. High LD%=higher BABIP, but Beckett, year-to-year, doesn't usually give up more than the league average rate (18.5%) and his pitch selection and speeds have remained consistent since 2004.
ReplyDeleteWell, actually, he is using his change up less and less the last two years...
Does it make sense that Beckett's ld% would go up as he uses a curveball 5% more and change up 5% less? His GB/FB has remained really stable and his 2009 LD rate is being skewed by his last outing.
ReplyDelete