As anyone who follows this blog/does a player name search on this blog will tell you, I am a huge Josh Beckett fan. Despite his poor surface numbers (ERA, Wins), Josh Beckett was still good in 2008 -- just incredibly unlucky. Beckett's inflated BABIP (.327 in 2008, .303 career) and abnormally high LD% (25.2% in 2008, 19.7% career) collectively conspired against his peripherals (3.2 FIP) to produce a less than flashy 4.03 ERA.
The increased line drive rate (bad) comes against a control rate (K/BB) that has increased (good) for three straight season (2.14, 4.85, 5.06). Since 2007, Beckett has shaved his BB/9 rate to a stingy and consistent 1.78, while increasing his K rate from 8.70 to 8.88 to 9.73. Dig a little deeper into Beckett's numbers and you will find that since 2004, Beckett has posted a 1.2 GB/FB every year like clockwork.
Diagnosis? Fate hates Josh Beckett. Last season's numbers indicate that he should have been better and this year's peripherals say nothing different. Despite a 7.22 ERA, 1.81 WHIP and 36 hits in under 29 IP, Beckett's FIP, thanks to quality HR/9 and stellar K/9 rates, sits at a significantly less scary 4.04. Beckett's been uncharacteristically wild this season (5.02 BB/9), but even if you were to expect him to regress to his pre-Red Sox career average walk rate (3.2 per nine), his K/BB would still be +3. Is it so unreasonable to expect a guy who has posted a consistent sub-1.8 BB/9 rate each of the past two seasons to regain command of his pitches? Beckett's simply not as wild as he has been in his last three starts (6.31 BB/9) and the rest of his peripherals are all solid (9.73 K/9, 0.94 HR/9) and in line with his numbers over the past two seasons.
The case of Josh Beckett is one of pure bad lack that will correct itself over the course of a 30+ start season. Matthew Berry has as an irrational hatred of Beckett as he did with Bartolo Colon in his prime (on his Fantasy Focus podcast last week, Berry claimed he would rather have Dice-K over Beckett, which is absolutely absurd) and you should take advantage of any owner who faithfully subscribes to Berry's word or shares his impatient irrationalities. Beckett will get better and this is the perfect time to get him at a deep discount.
Even if you can't steal Josh Beckett from an owner in your league, you could probably get away with swapping him out for James Shields before their respective ERA's and WHIP 's flip flop. You might even be able to get a nice toss-in with the deal (David Aardsma? Jarrod Washburn?).
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query Josh Beckett. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query Josh Beckett. Sort by date Show all posts
Five Up, Five Down
Today, I'm going to look at five pitchers who are primed to increase in value this season and five guys who you can expect some serious regression from.
FIVE UP
1. Javier Vazquez
A combination of his lack of success in the AL (minus 2007) in recent years matched against his great peripherals make him unfairly undervalued. Despite posting a FIP of 3.86 or lower each of the past 3 seasons, the absolutely TERRIBLE defense of the Chicago White Sox helped to inflate Javvy's ERA to 4.84, 3.73 and 4.67 over that time frame. Last year, Vazquez struck out 8.64 guys per nine, walked 2.64 per nine and gave up a little over a home run per game (1.08 HR/9), good for a very solid 3.74 FIP. Vazquez's 68.3 LOB% also contributed heavily to an inflated ERA last year. In short, Vazquez's move away from the HR friendly Cell, defensive challenged White Sox and stronger hitting AL to the defensively strong Braves and pitcher-who-bats NL should only make him a top 10 guy in 2009.
2. Jonathan Sanchez
Sanchez is a guy who gets a bad rep due to high ERA/FIP splits and bad luck. Jonathan Sanchez may have a below average defense behind him this year, but his 3.85/5.01 FIP/ERA split in 2008 calls for some extreme regression. In 250 big league innings, Sanchez has struck out 252 guys. Fangraph notes that "batters swung and missed at 10.9% of Sanchez’s pitches, the 9th highest total in baseball." This, combined with a 67.5 LOB% in 2008 tell me that Sanchez is bound to improve.
3. Josh Beckett
After two consecutive season of 200+ IP, the injury bug again bit Beckett, limiting him to a serviceable 27 starts, 175 IP. His ERA was 4.03, but the FIP was a sparkling 3.24. Beckett's K rate has been increasing since 2006, while his BB rate has declined over that same period. Boston had a top 5 defensive team last year and Beckett had an average 71.3 LOB%, so what was the problem? As his -0.92 clutch rating (a fangraphs metric that compares a player's performance in high leverage situations to performance in low leverage situations) highlights, Josh Beckett allowed a majority of his walks and extra-base hits in situations when runners were in scoring position. Despite Beckett's tendency to be slightly unclutchy on the Red Sox, there's absolutely no reason to think that this extreme unclutchiness will continue in 2009. Simply put, all signs point to a return to great success for Josh Beckett next year.
4. Derek Lowe
This extreme groundballer is second only to Brandon Webb when it came to burning worms last year. Despite his four years of success in Dodgers Stadium, there is arguably room for improvement (despite Lowe's increasing age). Groundballers tend to be more reliant on the defense of the infield behind them to keep their numbers good. One would assume, using FIP as the breakever point, that a pitcher on a team with a good defensive infield would outperform their FIP, while one a defensively challenged team would underperform their FIP. According to fangraphs data, the Dodgers infield last year combined to be -32.3 fielding runs below average, while the Braves infield was worth a positive 2.5 fielding runs above average (Kelly Johnson's limited range kind of took down the team's total defensive value by being -9.0 Fielding Runs below average last year, but was similtaneously slightly above average when it came to not making errors). So while Derek Lowe negligibly underperformed his FIP in each of his four years on the Dodgers except 2005 (his FIP/ERA splits between 2005 and 2008 were 4.16/3.61, 3.68/3.63, 3.97/3.88 and 3.26/3.24), you have to expect a favorably larger FIP/ERA split going forward for the 35 year old ex-closer whose lack of K's is subsidized by superior control (2.60+ K/BB as a starter) and a lack of home runs (.65 HR/9 as a starter). If nothing more, expect Derek Lowe to continue to post an ERA around/below 3.6 and a solid WHIP in the 1.2 range over 200ish innings.
5. Andrew Miller
Going back to the "quality pitchers who get a bad rap due to poor FIP/ERA splits" theme, Andrew Miller was the most unfortunate victim of bad luck amongst all major leaguers last season. Despite increasing his K rate and decreasing both his walk and home run rates in each of the past three seasons, Andrew Miller's ERA has risen each year. His FIP/ERA splits since 2006 are 5.47/6.10, 5.27/5.63 and 4.00/5.87. A lot of this is due to the fact that both the Marlins and Tigers rank amongst the league's worst defensive teams, but how much of Andrew Miller's league leading +1.87 F-E (FIP-ERA) ratio should persist next year? Miller has a great arm that is primed for a breakout season if he finds shelter on a friendlier team. Even on the Marlins, we should expect a sharp decline in ERA from Andrew Miller next season, hopefully to a fantasy relevant range.
FIVE DOWN
1. Johan Santana
Each of the past two seasons have seen a sharp decline in Santana's once unquestionably dominate peripherals. After averageing a FIP of 3.03 between 2002 and 2006, Santana has seen his FIP rise to 3.81 and 3.51 over the past two seasons, as his strike out rate has fallen and walk rate risen. Santana's career best 2.53 ERA was largely the by-product of ridiculously lucky 82.6 LOB% (over 10% above league average) and a defensively awesome defense (sixth best in the league at converting balls in play into outs). Santana, who struck out less than 9 guys per nine (7.91 per nine to be exact) for the first time since 2001, is bound to bounce back some in his strike out rate from last season (the projection systems on fangraphs see it landing somewhere in the upper 8's per nine range), but Santana's declining numbers indicate that he may be on the decline and is certainly no longer worth an automatic first round pick (and certainly not a pick above Tim Lincecum, who despite his injury potential, posted an ERA/FIP split of exactly zero). Johan Santana has achieved almost all that we can expect from him and thus presents little, if any, upside (and a lot of downside) at pick #16. Santana's just a brand name, at the point, and I strongly suggest you avoid paying that premium.
2. Gavin Floyd
One of the many reasons that the outlook for the 2009 White Sox is so grim is that much of the team's success derived from a great pitching core that outperformed its peripherals. Gavin Floyd posted a quality 3.87 ERA, despite a 4.77 FIP that resulted in a mediocre 6.32 K/9 rate and hellish 1.31 HR/9 rate. As a flyball pitcher in the home run friendly US Cellular Field, the projection systems on fangraphs sees Floyd's HR/9 rate increasing to the 1.4 or even 1.5 per nine range, while projecting a 10% decline in his control (from 2.07 K/BB to the 1.8 K/BB range). Even if Gavin Floyd didn't regress to the 5.00 FIP range next year, you'd have to expect a sharp rise in ERA for the sophomore hurler who was just handed a four-year contract.
3. Armando Galaragga
Like Gavin Floyd, Armando Galaragga is a flyball pitcher who got incredibly lucky last year. His ridiculously low .250 BABIP helped mask his poor 4.88 FIP with a quality 3.73 ERA. Tigers fans who expect a repeat performance from the man who gave up 1.4 HR/9 and struck out a mere 6.53 per nine are going to be in for some severe disappointment. Even if Galaragga maintains his 2.07 K/BB and decreased his HR/9 rate, you've still got to worry about the effects of the very below average defense of the Tigers on Galaragga's numbers. To say the least, the outlook for Armando Galaragga is bleak.
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K still struck out a lot of guys last year, but his numbers indicate some impending regression. In 2008, Dice-K upped his walk rate by 1.5 guys per nine and decreased his K rate by from 8.84 K/8 to 8.27 K/9. At the same time, Dice-K almost halved his HR/9, while neither increasing his GB rate nor decreasing his FB rate -- meaning the downturn was probably a fluke rather than an increase in skill. Furthermore, Dice-K's 18% line drive rate says that his .267 BABIP of 2008 is bound to regress somewhere towards the .290-.300 range. Dice-K's FIP/ERA split last season was 4.03/2.90, and while Boston had a great defense last season (fifth in defensive efficiency), it wasn't and isn't good enough to reasonably sustain a 1.03 F-E. In 2009, I fully expect Dice-K's ERA to be closer to his 2007 numbers than those of last season -- those free passes are going to come back to bite him big time.
5. Joe Saunders
Despite a 91 MPH fastball and above average control (2.41 BB/9), there is much to not like about Saunders (such as his anemic 4.68 K/9 rate and ridiculously low .267 BABIP). Last year, despite posting an average 4.36 FIP and barely 100 Ks to go with 200 innings of work, Joe Saunders put up ace-quality numbers with a 3.41 ERA and 17 Wins. Unfortunately for Halos fans and Saunders, his above average control and average home run rates can't overcome his 30% below average strikeout rate. Saunders is no Greg Maddux.
TWO GUYS WHO COULD GO EITHER WAY
1. Justin Duchscherer
I love me some "Doosher", but his 2009 season could go either way. On one hand, Duchscherer is an injury prone 31 year old with a 3.69/2.54 FIP/ERA split. On the other hand, a 3.69 FIP is nothing to scoff at and the Oakland A's were one of the game's top defensive teams last year (fourth in defensive efficiency). Despite a below average K rate, Doosher's stellar control (2.16 BB/9) and lack of longballs (.70 HR/9) make him a candidate for continued, although comparatively diminished, success. I would expect a mid 3 ERA from Duchscherer to go along with a limited innings load in 2009 (he's starting the first six weeks of the season on the DL).
2. Andy Pettite
Despite posting an ERA north of 4.00 in each of the past two seasons, Andy Pettite's FIP has been below 3.90 (3.71 FIP in 2008) in each of those seasons. Pettite's inflated ERA has largely been due to the extremely poor defensive abilities of guys like Derek Jeter Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu in the field. With Abreu, Giambi and even Matsui out of the field and the addition of Mark Teixeira (+10.7 fielding runs above average last year), you have to expect some improvement in the ability of the Yankee's defense. On the other hand, both Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter's defense are on a rapid decline, while A-Rod hip may hinder his range when he returns. In short, whether or not the Yankee's defense as a whole will significantly improve this year is questionable and Pettite's FIP/ERA splits seem dependant on where the defensive coin toss lands. There's no reason to expect a poor (above 4) FIP or significant downturn in IP from Pettite this year, however.
FIVE UP
1. Javier Vazquez
A combination of his lack of success in the AL (minus 2007) in recent years matched against his great peripherals make him unfairly undervalued. Despite posting a FIP of 3.86 or lower each of the past 3 seasons, the absolutely TERRIBLE defense of the Chicago White Sox helped to inflate Javvy's ERA to 4.84, 3.73 and 4.67 over that time frame. Last year, Vazquez struck out 8.64 guys per nine, walked 2.64 per nine and gave up a little over a home run per game (1.08 HR/9), good for a very solid 3.74 FIP. Vazquez's 68.3 LOB% also contributed heavily to an inflated ERA last year. In short, Vazquez's move away from the HR friendly Cell, defensive challenged White Sox and stronger hitting AL to the defensively strong Braves and pitcher-who-bats NL should only make him a top 10 guy in 2009.
2. Jonathan Sanchez
Sanchez is a guy who gets a bad rep due to high ERA/FIP splits and bad luck. Jonathan Sanchez may have a below average defense behind him this year, but his 3.85/5.01 FIP/ERA split in 2008 calls for some extreme regression. In 250 big league innings, Sanchez has struck out 252 guys. Fangraph notes that "batters swung and missed at 10.9% of Sanchez’s pitches, the 9th highest total in baseball." This, combined with a 67.5 LOB% in 2008 tell me that Sanchez is bound to improve.
3. Josh Beckett
After two consecutive season of 200+ IP, the injury bug again bit Beckett, limiting him to a serviceable 27 starts, 175 IP. His ERA was 4.03, but the FIP was a sparkling 3.24. Beckett's K rate has been increasing since 2006, while his BB rate has declined over that same period. Boston had a top 5 defensive team last year and Beckett had an average 71.3 LOB%, so what was the problem? As his -0.92 clutch rating (a fangraphs metric that compares a player's performance in high leverage situations to performance in low leverage situations) highlights, Josh Beckett allowed a majority of his walks and extra-base hits in situations when runners were in scoring position. Despite Beckett's tendency to be slightly unclutchy on the Red Sox, there's absolutely no reason to think that this extreme unclutchiness will continue in 2009. Simply put, all signs point to a return to great success for Josh Beckett next year.
4. Derek Lowe
This extreme groundballer is second only to Brandon Webb when it came to burning worms last year. Despite his four years of success in Dodgers Stadium, there is arguably room for improvement (despite Lowe's increasing age). Groundballers tend to be more reliant on the defense of the infield behind them to keep their numbers good. One would assume, using FIP as the breakever point, that a pitcher on a team with a good defensive infield would outperform their FIP, while one a defensively challenged team would underperform their FIP. According to fangraphs data, the Dodgers infield last year combined to be -32.3 fielding runs below average, while the Braves infield was worth a positive 2.5 fielding runs above average (Kelly Johnson's limited range kind of took down the team's total defensive value by being -9.0 Fielding Runs below average last year, but was similtaneously slightly above average when it came to not making errors). So while Derek Lowe negligibly underperformed his FIP in each of his four years on the Dodgers except 2005 (his FIP/ERA splits between 2005 and 2008 were 4.16/3.61, 3.68/3.63, 3.97/3.88 and 3.26/3.24), you have to expect a favorably larger FIP/ERA split going forward for the 35 year old ex-closer whose lack of K's is subsidized by superior control (2.60+ K/BB as a starter) and a lack of home runs (.65 HR/9 as a starter). If nothing more, expect Derek Lowe to continue to post an ERA around/below 3.6 and a solid WHIP in the 1.2 range over 200ish innings.
5. Andrew Miller
Going back to the "quality pitchers who get a bad rap due to poor FIP/ERA splits" theme, Andrew Miller was the most unfortunate victim of bad luck amongst all major leaguers last season. Despite increasing his K rate and decreasing both his walk and home run rates in each of the past three seasons, Andrew Miller's ERA has risen each year. His FIP/ERA splits since 2006 are 5.47/6.10, 5.27/5.63 and 4.00/5.87. A lot of this is due to the fact that both the Marlins and Tigers rank amongst the league's worst defensive teams, but how much of Andrew Miller's league leading +1.87 F-E (FIP-ERA) ratio should persist next year? Miller has a great arm that is primed for a breakout season if he finds shelter on a friendlier team. Even on the Marlins, we should expect a sharp decline in ERA from Andrew Miller next season, hopefully to a fantasy relevant range.
FIVE DOWN
1. Johan Santana
Each of the past two seasons have seen a sharp decline in Santana's once unquestionably dominate peripherals. After averageing a FIP of 3.03 between 2002 and 2006, Santana has seen his FIP rise to 3.81 and 3.51 over the past two seasons, as his strike out rate has fallen and walk rate risen. Santana's career best 2.53 ERA was largely the by-product of ridiculously lucky 82.6 LOB% (over 10% above league average) and a defensively awesome defense (sixth best in the league at converting balls in play into outs). Santana, who struck out less than 9 guys per nine (7.91 per nine to be exact) for the first time since 2001, is bound to bounce back some in his strike out rate from last season (the projection systems on fangraphs see it landing somewhere in the upper 8's per nine range), but Santana's declining numbers indicate that he may be on the decline and is certainly no longer worth an automatic first round pick (and certainly not a pick above Tim Lincecum, who despite his injury potential, posted an ERA/FIP split of exactly zero). Johan Santana has achieved almost all that we can expect from him and thus presents little, if any, upside (and a lot of downside) at pick #16. Santana's just a brand name, at the point, and I strongly suggest you avoid paying that premium.
2. Gavin Floyd
One of the many reasons that the outlook for the 2009 White Sox is so grim is that much of the team's success derived from a great pitching core that outperformed its peripherals. Gavin Floyd posted a quality 3.87 ERA, despite a 4.77 FIP that resulted in a mediocre 6.32 K/9 rate and hellish 1.31 HR/9 rate. As a flyball pitcher in the home run friendly US Cellular Field, the projection systems on fangraphs sees Floyd's HR/9 rate increasing to the 1.4 or even 1.5 per nine range, while projecting a 10% decline in his control (from 2.07 K/BB to the 1.8 K/BB range). Even if Gavin Floyd didn't regress to the 5.00 FIP range next year, you'd have to expect a sharp rise in ERA for the sophomore hurler who was just handed a four-year contract.
3. Armando Galaragga
Like Gavin Floyd, Armando Galaragga is a flyball pitcher who got incredibly lucky last year. His ridiculously low .250 BABIP helped mask his poor 4.88 FIP with a quality 3.73 ERA. Tigers fans who expect a repeat performance from the man who gave up 1.4 HR/9 and struck out a mere 6.53 per nine are going to be in for some severe disappointment. Even if Galaragga maintains his 2.07 K/BB and decreased his HR/9 rate, you've still got to worry about the effects of the very below average defense of the Tigers on Galaragga's numbers. To say the least, the outlook for Armando Galaragga is bleak.
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K still struck out a lot of guys last year, but his numbers indicate some impending regression. In 2008, Dice-K upped his walk rate by 1.5 guys per nine and decreased his K rate by from 8.84 K/8 to 8.27 K/9. At the same time, Dice-K almost halved his HR/9, while neither increasing his GB rate nor decreasing his FB rate -- meaning the downturn was probably a fluke rather than an increase in skill. Furthermore, Dice-K's 18% line drive rate says that his .267 BABIP of 2008 is bound to regress somewhere towards the .290-.300 range. Dice-K's FIP/ERA split last season was 4.03/2.90, and while Boston had a great defense last season (fifth in defensive efficiency), it wasn't and isn't good enough to reasonably sustain a 1.03 F-E. In 2009, I fully expect Dice-K's ERA to be closer to his 2007 numbers than those of last season -- those free passes are going to come back to bite him big time.
5. Joe Saunders
Despite a 91 MPH fastball and above average control (2.41 BB/9), there is much to not like about Saunders (such as his anemic 4.68 K/9 rate and ridiculously low .267 BABIP). Last year, despite posting an average 4.36 FIP and barely 100 Ks to go with 200 innings of work, Joe Saunders put up ace-quality numbers with a 3.41 ERA and 17 Wins. Unfortunately for Halos fans and Saunders, his above average control and average home run rates can't overcome his 30% below average strikeout rate. Saunders is no Greg Maddux.
TWO GUYS WHO COULD GO EITHER WAY
1. Justin Duchscherer
I love me some "Doosher", but his 2009 season could go either way. On one hand, Duchscherer is an injury prone 31 year old with a 3.69/2.54 FIP/ERA split. On the other hand, a 3.69 FIP is nothing to scoff at and the Oakland A's were one of the game's top defensive teams last year (fourth in defensive efficiency). Despite a below average K rate, Doosher's stellar control (2.16 BB/9) and lack of longballs (.70 HR/9) make him a candidate for continued, although comparatively diminished, success. I would expect a mid 3 ERA from Duchscherer to go along with a limited innings load in 2009 (he's starting the first six weeks of the season on the DL).
2. Andy Pettite
Despite posting an ERA north of 4.00 in each of the past two seasons, Andy Pettite's FIP has been below 3.90 (3.71 FIP in 2008) in each of those seasons. Pettite's inflated ERA has largely been due to the extremely poor defensive abilities of guys like Derek Jeter Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu in the field. With Abreu, Giambi and even Matsui out of the field and the addition of Mark Teixeira (+10.7 fielding runs above average last year), you have to expect some improvement in the ability of the Yankee's defense. On the other hand, both Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter's defense are on a rapid decline, while A-Rod hip may hinder his range when he returns. In short, whether or not the Yankee's defense as a whole will significantly improve this year is questionable and Pettite's FIP/ERA splits seem dependant on where the defensive coin toss lands. There's no reason to expect a poor (above 4) FIP or significant downturn in IP from Pettite this year, however.
Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays
Originally I was going to start this post off by saying the Yankees would win the division and this post was dedicated to who would win the AL Wild Card but with no bullpen and no pitching depth and injury risks to Chien-Minh Wang, C.C. Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett, I'd actually say this division is up for grabs. While I still think the Yankees are going to to win the division, here's my "Wild Card" prediction by match ups. A Yankees/Red Sox match up has already been done so I'm going to do Rays/Red Sox
Catcher
Dioneer Navarro v Jason Varitek.
An old washed up player who has trouble getting his OBS over .300 in recent days versus an young up and coming stud. Maybe if this was Veritek a few years ago, I'd go with him, but this is not the Veritek of old, this is the Veritek who is 36/37 years old
Winner: Rays
First Base
Carlos Pena v Kevin Youkilis
Since Kevin "The Greek God of Walks" Youkilis' rookie season, he has never had an OBS under .381. However Pena is no stranger to walking either having an OBS the past two years of .411 and .377. Pena has also had more HRs than Youkilis of last dinging 46 two years ago and 31 last year versus Youk's 16 two years ago and 29 last year. But Youk has had more plate appearance than Pena, who is the past twp years has maxed out at 490 ABs. Youk is also getting better and better as the years roll on, was 4th in the AL in OBS last year, and is much younger than Pena who seems to be inconsistent and showing his age. It's because of this that Youk wins over Pena, but not by much.
Winner: Red Sox
Second Base
Akinori Iwamura v Dustin Pedroia
Iwamura, in his two seasons in MLB has had an OBS of .359 and .349. Pedroia, in his essentially two seasons have had a OBS of .380 and .376. Pedroia has a better career OPS+, SLG, HR, and SB%.
Winner: Red Sox
Shortstop:
Jason Bartlett v Jed Lowrie
In five season, Bartlett's career OPS+ is 85. I actually am not quite sure how to read defensive stats on baseballreference.com, but because he's a former Twins, and from what I've heard, he's a darn good defender. Lowrie only has a handful of starts under his belt, but his minor league numbers shows he has plate discipline but little to no power. I also don't know anything about his defense but I assume because he's a Red Sox it's pretty good. This match up is pretty bad but I'm going to give it to Lowrie because I think he can get on base in the pros
Winner: Red Sox
Third Base
Evan Longoria v Mike Lowell
I don't even need to look up the players stats to know just how awesome Longoria is and just how average Lowell is
Winner: Rays
Left Field
Carl Crawford v Jason Bay
Crawford has a career OBS+ of 101 but is a damn fine base stealer. Unfortunately his career OBS is .330 and he's injury prone. Bay has a career OPS+ of 131, can hit 30+ HRs a year. Bay walks and has power, what more do you want out of a player?
Winner: Red Sox
Center Field
B.J. Upton v Jacoby Ellsbury
More are young guys known for stealing bases. Upton has a better OBS than Ellsbury. But Ellsbury steals more bases and (although limited sample size) at a better rate. Upton has more power capabilities hitting 24 two years ago but last year only had 9. In his four season, Upton's OPS+ is above 100 versus Ellsbuy's which is not. Therefore, I give the edge to Upton. Plus, BJ stands for Bossman Junior
Winner: Rays
Right Field
Matt Joyce v J.D. Drew
Joyce is young and has some pop but doesn't have the best plate discipline. J.D. can walk and has power but is old and can be inconsistent. However, Drew has proven to be awesome and healthy and he was that last year. I think Joyce will be better than Drew soon, but not next year.
Winner: Red Sox
DH
Pat Burrell v Big Papi
Ortiz' career OPS+ is 138 versus Burrell's 119. Ortiz has has seasons of 40-50 HRs and Burrell has never gotten above 33 in the past 6 years. However Ortiz seems to be on the decline, doesn't have Manny hitting behind him, and now is facing steroid allegations. But Burrell isn't without his faults either having streaks of amazingness and streaks of shittiness giving him just above average total numbers. If Burrell could consistently hold his career numbers I'd give him this one but it's just so hard to.
Winner: Red Sox
Bullpen
Dan Wheeler v Jonathan Papelbon
Troy Pervical v Hideki Okajima
The best closer in the game and one of the leagues best set up man versus two old guys. No question
Winner: Red Sox
Rotation
James Shields v Josh Beckett
Beckett's career ERA+ is 116 versus Shields 114. Shields ERA+ is rising every year versus Beckett who can be amazing (2007- 145)or just his normal self (2008- 115). Josh Beckett can be amazing but Shields is younger and will probably be better than Beckett NEXT year.
Winner: Rays
Scott Kazmir v Jon Lester
Both are about the same age but Kazmir has two more years on Lester. Both essentially have the same ERA+. Kazmir edges Lester is K/BB ratio because he can strike out guys but Lester seems to be getting better and better every year and able to (unlike Kazmir) able to be a big game pitcher. It's for this that I barely give the edge to Lester
Winner: Red Sox
Matt Garza v Dice-K
Both essentially have been in the league the same amount of time and essentially have the same K/BB ratio. Dice-K strikes out a lot of guys but also walks a lot of guys. Garza steadily have had an ERA+ of 118 the past two year versus the streaky Dice-K- because in his first year he had an ERA+ of 108 but 159 last year! Dice-K is in his prime but Garza is younger. Because Dice-K can strike guys out and because he IS in his prime and has shown to be great (4th in Cy Young voting last year) and can be GREAT, I'm going to give this one to Dice-K, but another really close one
Winner: Red Sox
Andy Sonnanstine v Brad Penny
Penny has actually sucked in his overall stint in LA and Sonnanstine is young and should only get better. But last year is ERA was mid 4.00 with a 102 ERA+. But because he is younger and Penny last year SUUUUUCCKKKKEEDDD, the young guy beats the old dude.
Winner: Rays
David Price v John Smoltz
I question if both can finish the season next year. Last year in the playoffs Price was sick and his stuff looked amazing. On the other hand, when Smoltz was healthy, he was one of the best pitchers in the game. Smoltz actually doesn't have to pitch everyday and will be on a need by/ if-he-can-pitch basis. When he can't pitch, Tim Wakefield will pitch for him in that case Price will have the edge. But Price is too much of a wild card for me to pick him right now.
Winner: Red Sox
Totals:
Red Sox: 10
Rays: 5
I think the Red Sox have better players overall, are more experienced, have one of the best bullpen's in baseball, a deep rotation, a strong organization, a deep farm system, and a great GM that I have a hard time believing that the Red Sox won't make the playoffs
Catcher
Dioneer Navarro v Jason Varitek.
An old washed up player who has trouble getting his OBS over .300 in recent days versus an young up and coming stud. Maybe if this was Veritek a few years ago, I'd go with him, but this is not the Veritek of old, this is the Veritek who is 36/37 years old
Winner: Rays
First Base
Carlos Pena v Kevin Youkilis
Since Kevin "The Greek God of Walks" Youkilis' rookie season, he has never had an OBS under .381. However Pena is no stranger to walking either having an OBS the past two years of .411 and .377. Pena has also had more HRs than Youkilis of last dinging 46 two years ago and 31 last year versus Youk's 16 two years ago and 29 last year. But Youk has had more plate appearance than Pena, who is the past twp years has maxed out at 490 ABs. Youk is also getting better and better as the years roll on, was 4th in the AL in OBS last year, and is much younger than Pena who seems to be inconsistent and showing his age. It's because of this that Youk wins over Pena, but not by much.
Winner: Red Sox
Second Base
Akinori Iwamura v Dustin Pedroia
Iwamura, in his two seasons in MLB has had an OBS of .359 and .349. Pedroia, in his essentially two seasons have had a OBS of .380 and .376. Pedroia has a better career OPS+, SLG, HR, and SB%.
Winner: Red Sox
Shortstop:
Jason Bartlett v Jed Lowrie
In five season, Bartlett's career OPS+ is 85. I actually am not quite sure how to read defensive stats on baseballreference.com, but because he's a former Twins, and from what I've heard, he's a darn good defender. Lowrie only has a handful of starts under his belt, but his minor league numbers shows he has plate discipline but little to no power. I also don't know anything about his defense but I assume because he's a Red Sox it's pretty good. This match up is pretty bad but I'm going to give it to Lowrie because I think he can get on base in the pros
Winner: Red Sox
Third Base
Evan Longoria v Mike Lowell
I don't even need to look up the players stats to know just how awesome Longoria is and just how average Lowell is
Winner: Rays
Left Field
Carl Crawford v Jason Bay
Crawford has a career OBS+ of 101 but is a damn fine base stealer. Unfortunately his career OBS is .330 and he's injury prone. Bay has a career OPS+ of 131, can hit 30+ HRs a year. Bay walks and has power, what more do you want out of a player?
Winner: Red Sox
Center Field
B.J. Upton v Jacoby Ellsbury
More are young guys known for stealing bases. Upton has a better OBS than Ellsbury. But Ellsbury steals more bases and (although limited sample size) at a better rate. Upton has more power capabilities hitting 24 two years ago but last year only had 9. In his four season, Upton's OPS+ is above 100 versus Ellsbuy's which is not. Therefore, I give the edge to Upton. Plus, BJ stands for Bossman Junior
Winner: Rays
Right Field
Matt Joyce v J.D. Drew
Joyce is young and has some pop but doesn't have the best plate discipline. J.D. can walk and has power but is old and can be inconsistent. However, Drew has proven to be awesome and healthy and he was that last year. I think Joyce will be better than Drew soon, but not next year.
Winner: Red Sox
DH
Pat Burrell v Big Papi
Ortiz' career OPS+ is 138 versus Burrell's 119. Ortiz has has seasons of 40-50 HRs and Burrell has never gotten above 33 in the past 6 years. However Ortiz seems to be on the decline, doesn't have Manny hitting behind him, and now is facing steroid allegations. But Burrell isn't without his faults either having streaks of amazingness and streaks of shittiness giving him just above average total numbers. If Burrell could consistently hold his career numbers I'd give him this one but it's just so hard to.
Winner: Red Sox
Bullpen
Dan Wheeler v Jonathan Papelbon
Troy Pervical v Hideki Okajima
The best closer in the game and one of the leagues best set up man versus two old guys. No question
Winner: Red Sox
Rotation
James Shields v Josh Beckett
Beckett's career ERA+ is 116 versus Shields 114. Shields ERA+ is rising every year versus Beckett who can be amazing (2007- 145)or just his normal self (2008- 115). Josh Beckett can be amazing but Shields is younger and will probably be better than Beckett NEXT year.
Winner: Rays
Scott Kazmir v Jon Lester
Both are about the same age but Kazmir has two more years on Lester. Both essentially have the same ERA+. Kazmir edges Lester is K/BB ratio because he can strike out guys but Lester seems to be getting better and better every year and able to (unlike Kazmir) able to be a big game pitcher. It's for this that I barely give the edge to Lester
Winner: Red Sox
Matt Garza v Dice-K
Both essentially have been in the league the same amount of time and essentially have the same K/BB ratio. Dice-K strikes out a lot of guys but also walks a lot of guys. Garza steadily have had an ERA+ of 118 the past two year versus the streaky Dice-K- because in his first year he had an ERA+ of 108 but 159 last year! Dice-K is in his prime but Garza is younger. Because Dice-K can strike guys out and because he IS in his prime and has shown to be great (4th in Cy Young voting last year) and can be GREAT, I'm going to give this one to Dice-K, but another really close one
Winner: Red Sox
Andy Sonnanstine v Brad Penny
Penny has actually sucked in his overall stint in LA and Sonnanstine is young and should only get better. But last year is ERA was mid 4.00 with a 102 ERA+. But because he is younger and Penny last year SUUUUUCCKKKKEEDDD, the young guy beats the old dude.
Winner: Rays
David Price v John Smoltz
I question if both can finish the season next year. Last year in the playoffs Price was sick and his stuff looked amazing. On the other hand, when Smoltz was healthy, he was one of the best pitchers in the game. Smoltz actually doesn't have to pitch everyday and will be on a need by/ if-he-can-pitch basis. When he can't pitch, Tim Wakefield will pitch for him in that case Price will have the edge. But Price is too much of a wild card for me to pick him right now.
Winner: Red Sox
Totals:
Red Sox: 10
Rays: 5
I think the Red Sox have better players overall, are more experienced, have one of the best bullpen's in baseball, a deep rotation, a strong organization, a deep farm system, and a great GM that I have a hard time believing that the Red Sox won't make the playoffs
I am the ultimate slumpbuster?
This season, I have done in-depth analysis on three slumping pitchers -- Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander and Randy Johnson. Following each post that I wrote praising patience and better waters ahead, each respective pitcher immediately turned their luck around. Take a look at their pre/post DME blogging splits:
Verlander (5/1):
Pre: 28.0 IP, 1 W, 6.75 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 34 K, 1.54 WHIP
Post: 70.0 IP, 7 W, 1.93 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 84 K, 1.00 WHIP
Beckett (5/4):
Pre: 28.2 IP, 2 W, 7.22 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 31 K, 1.81 WHIP
Post: 62.2 IP, 6 W, 2.15 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 57 K, 1.00 WHIP
Johnson (6/1):
Pre: 52.0 IP, 4 W, 5.71 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 54 K, 1.62 WHIP
Post: 30.2 IP, 3 W, 2.93 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 21 K, 1.08 WHIP
Also, since I did my early season analysis of Dan Uggla, he's hit .035 points higher in batting average (from .198 to .233) and 11 of his 15 home runs. Uggla's BABIP is still way low (.236) given his 16.5 lD% and career .298 BABIP, so expectations for a .250-.260 BA rebound in the second half are not unreasonable.
Perhaps major leagues team should hire me to blog more.
Verlander (5/1):
Pre: 28.0 IP, 1 W, 6.75 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 34 K, 1.54 WHIP
Post: 70.0 IP, 7 W, 1.93 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 84 K, 1.00 WHIP
Beckett (5/4):
Pre: 28.2 IP, 2 W, 7.22 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 31 K, 1.81 WHIP
Post: 62.2 IP, 6 W, 2.15 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 57 K, 1.00 WHIP
Johnson (6/1):
Pre: 52.0 IP, 4 W, 5.71 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 54 K, 1.62 WHIP
Post: 30.2 IP, 3 W, 2.93 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 21 K, 1.08 WHIP
Also, since I did my early season analysis of Dan Uggla, he's hit .035 points higher in batting average (from .198 to .233) and 11 of his 15 home runs. Uggla's BABIP is still way low (.236) given his 16.5 lD% and career .298 BABIP, so expectations for a .250-.260 BA rebound in the second half are not unreasonable.
Perhaps major leagues team should hire me to blog more.
DME's Top 50 Second Half Starters For Fantasy
During the All-Star game last night, I compiled a list of my top 50 fantasy starters for the rest of the season. I considered the total value contributed across Ws, Ks, ERA and WHIP in creating this list. Hence, a guy with low Ws/Ks upside (ie, Brett Anderson) sinks low on this list, even if they are a very good pitcher in real life. This list does not per se reflect the best real-life pitchers in baseball.
And now, on to the show:
01. Tim Lincecum (increased SwStr%, but decreased K/9? I smell a turn around)
02. Roy Halladay
03. Felix Hernandez
04. Josh Johnson
05. Adam Wainwright
06. Francisco Liriano
07. Jon Lester
08. Dan Haren
09. Chris Carpenter (if healthy in the second half)
10. Cliff Lee
11. Ubaldo Jimenez
12. C.C. Sabathia (c'mon, he's a second half stud)
13. Justin Verlander
14. David Price
15. Jered Weaver
16. Max Scherzer
17. Roy Oswalt (especially if traded away from HOU)
18. Zack Greinke
19. Ryan Dempster
20. Yovani Gallardo (if healthy in the second half)
21. Ricky Nolasco
22. Matt Cain
23. Cole Hamels
24. Phil Hughes
25. Stephen Strasburg (he is only this low because he's on a strict innings limit. If you pair Strausburg and Zimmerman, they are collectively a top 15 SP over the 90-100 they'll combine for)
26. Clayton Kershaw
27. Mat Latos
28. Colby Lewis
29. Tommy Hanson
30. Gavin Floyd
31. Ricky Romero
32. Matt Garza
33. Shaun Marcum (if healthy in the second half)
34. Hiroki Kuroda (if healthy in the second half)
35. Javier Vazquez
36. Clay Buchholz (if healthy in the second half)
37. Kris Medlen
38. Scott Baker
39. Jonathan Sanchez
40. Chad Billingsley
41. Wandy Rodriguez (look at his last 6 outings)
42. Johan Santana (he's far from the Santana of old)
43. Johnny Cueto
44. Jorge De La Rosa
45. John Danks
46. Erik Bedard (if healthy during the second half)
47. Carl Pavano
48. Marc Rzepczynski
49. Edinson Volquez (if able to locate his pitches during the second half)
50. Josh Beckett (not assuming that he's 100% healthy for second half)
On the bubble: James Shields, Brett Anderson, Kevin Slowey, Tom Gorzelanny, Tim Hudson, Madison Bumgarner, Ian Kennedy, Jordan Zimmerman, Brett Myers, Clayton Richards
And now, on to the show:
01. Tim Lincecum (increased SwStr%, but decreased K/9? I smell a turn around)
02. Roy Halladay
03. Felix Hernandez
04. Josh Johnson
05. Adam Wainwright
06. Francisco Liriano
07. Jon Lester
08. Dan Haren
09. Chris Carpenter (if healthy in the second half)
10. Cliff Lee
11. Ubaldo Jimenez
12. C.C. Sabathia (c'mon, he's a second half stud)
13. Justin Verlander
14. David Price
15. Jered Weaver
16. Max Scherzer
17. Roy Oswalt (especially if traded away from HOU)
18. Zack Greinke
19. Ryan Dempster
20. Yovani Gallardo (if healthy in the second half)
21. Ricky Nolasco
22. Matt Cain
23. Cole Hamels
24. Phil Hughes
25. Stephen Strasburg (he is only this low because he's on a strict innings limit. If you pair Strausburg and Zimmerman, they are collectively a top 15 SP over the 90-100 they'll combine for)
26. Clayton Kershaw
27. Mat Latos
28. Colby Lewis
29. Tommy Hanson
30. Gavin Floyd
31. Ricky Romero
32. Matt Garza
33. Shaun Marcum (if healthy in the second half)
34. Hiroki Kuroda (if healthy in the second half)
35. Javier Vazquez
36. Clay Buchholz (if healthy in the second half)
37. Kris Medlen
38. Scott Baker
39. Jonathan Sanchez
40. Chad Billingsley
41. Wandy Rodriguez (look at his last 6 outings)
42. Johan Santana (he's far from the Santana of old)
43. Johnny Cueto
44. Jorge De La Rosa
45. John Danks
46. Erik Bedard (if healthy during the second half)
47. Carl Pavano
48. Marc Rzepczynski
49. Edinson Volquez (if able to locate his pitches during the second half)
50. Josh Beckett (not assuming that he's 100% healthy for second half)
On the bubble: James Shields, Brett Anderson, Kevin Slowey, Tom Gorzelanny, Tim Hudson, Madison Bumgarner, Ian Kennedy, Jordan Zimmerman, Brett Myers, Clayton Richards
David MVP Eckstein's Top 25 Rest Of Season Starters
01 - Tim Lincecum
02 - Roy Halladay
03 - Felix Hernandez
04 - Dan Haren
05 - Adam Wainwright
06 - Jon Lester
07 - Justin Verlander
08 - Josh Johnson
09 - Zack Greinke
10 - Ubaldo Jimenez
11 - Cliff Lee
12 - Chris Carpenter
13 - Stephen Strasburg
14 - CC Sabathia
15 - Tommy Hanson
16 - Roy Oswalt
17 - Matt Cain
18 - Cole Hamels
19 - Yovanni Gallardo
20 - Johan Santana
21 - Ricky Romero
22 - Ryan Dempster
23 - Hiroki Kuroda
24 - John Danks
25 - Jered Weaver
On the cusp (26-40): Ricky Nolasco, Jonathan Sanchez, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Phil Hughes, Francisco Liriano, Shaun Marcum, Clay Buchholz, Matt Garza, David Price, CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, Scott Baker, James Shields, Brett Anderson
Just missed: Josh Beckett
02 - Roy Halladay
03 - Felix Hernandez
04 - Dan Haren
05 - Adam Wainwright
06 - Jon Lester
07 - Justin Verlander
08 - Josh Johnson
09 - Zack Greinke
10 - Ubaldo Jimenez
11 - Cliff Lee
12 - Chris Carpenter
13 - Stephen Strasburg
14 - CC Sabathia
15 - Tommy Hanson
16 - Roy Oswalt
17 - Matt Cain
18 - Cole Hamels
19 - Yovanni Gallardo
20 - Johan Santana
21 - Ricky Romero
22 - Ryan Dempster
23 - Hiroki Kuroda
24 - John Danks
25 - Jered Weaver
On the cusp (26-40): Ricky Nolasco, Jonathan Sanchez, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Phil Hughes, Francisco Liriano, Shaun Marcum, Clay Buchholz, Matt Garza, David Price, CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, Scott Baker, James Shields, Brett Anderson
Just missed: Josh Beckett
DME's Fantasy Baseball Teams For 2010
This year, I've limited myself to five leagues. I really only plan on paying attention to three of them, my money leagues. These are my rosters as they stand before the season opener Sunday:
David MVP Eckstein -- Fantasyland 2 -- 12 man, 23 player, 5x5 std. roto auction:
C - Ryan Doumit ($1)
1B - Joey Votto ($28)
2B - Gordon Beckham ($15)
SS - Hanley Ramirez ($51)
3B - David Wright ($38)
OF - Grady Sizemore ($18)
OF - Alex Rios ($7)
OF - Franklin Gutierrez ($1)
DH - Chris Davis ($1)
SP - Josh Beckett ($18)
SP - Matt Cain ($19)
SP - Cole Hamels ($16)
RP - Heath Bell ($9)
RP - Jose Valverde ($7)
P - Colby Lewis ($1)
P - Phil Hughes ($1)
P - Bobby Jenks ($7)
P - Ricky Nolasco ($17)
BN - Nolan Reimold ($1)
BN - Martin Prado ($1)
BN - Franklin Morales ($1)
BN - Ryan Madson ($1)
BN - Justin Masterson ($1)
Comments: If you couldn't tell from the roster, I am attempting Stars & Scrubs this year. I definitely overspent too early on Hanley ($51), Wright ($38) and Votto ($28). I sent my entire budget in 13 players and watched depressingly as guys like Jay Bruce went for $3 in the final few picks. Next year, I'll save a few bucks for the end of the draft. My team is a little light on BA/SB's, but I think my team turned out quite well, all considered. If Nolan Reimold stays healthy, I think he is primed for a big season. I thought I was getting a great deal on elite closers for under $10 early on, but for some reason all of the closers went for around $5 in the league. Strange. I think this team's strong point is the pitching staff, though I will concede SexyRexy's is stronger thanks to his patient approach and aggressive bid war for King Felix.
David MVP Eckstein -- Mangolicious -- 12 man, 23 player, 5x5 std. draft league
C - Ryan Doumit
1B - Ryan Howard
2B - Chase Utley
SS - Derek Jeter
3B - David Wright
OF - Nelson Cruz
OF - Jay Bruce
OF - Carlos Gonzalez
DH - Carlos Quentin
SP - Felix Hernandez
SP - Cole Hamels
SP - Ricky Nolasco
RP - Billy Wagner
RP - Jose Valverde
P - John Lackey
P - Jason Frasor
P - Stephen Strausberg
P - Colby Lewis
BN - Chris Davis
BN - Brandon Lyon
BN - Brandon Webb
BN - Derek Lowe
BN - Drew Stubbs
Comments: You might notice a lot of overlap between this team and my auction team. I am expecting big things from my outfield this year, such as a .282/30/20 season from Nelson Cruz and a .278/35/10 season from Jay Bruce, but there is definitely some risk there. I by far have the best infield in the league, thanks to what used to be strong pitching depth. In a period of 24 hours, my entire roster changed. I traded away brand name studs like Jon Lester for "riskier" players like Nolasco, while upgrading other positions, while trading away seven closers to upgrade three. My team is a little light on strikeouts and steals at the moment, but I should be golden everywhere else. My big regret on the draft is taking Brandon Webb over Brett Anderson. At the time, my team had much more depth and I felt I could take a risk with Webb as the 120th overall pick. In hindsight, I could use another reliable starter, as Strausberg probably won't pitch in the majors till June. All in all, I love this team.
Jizz In My Pence -- Alcoholics '10 -- 10 man, 24 player, 5x5 std. draft league
C - Kurt Suzuki
1B - Adam Dunn
2B - Robinson Cano
SS - Hanley Ramirez
3B - Gordon Beckham
MI - Troy Tulowitzky
CI - Chris Davis
OF - Nick Markakis
OF - Jay Bruce
OF - Carlos Gonzalez
DH - Nyger Morgan
SP - Felix Hernandez
SP - Dan Haren
SP - Tommy Hanson
RP - Mike Gonzalez
RP - Billy Wagner
P - Josh Johnson
P - Ricky Nolasco
P - Max Scherzer
P - Bobby Jenks
BN - Franklin Moralez
BN - Alfonso Soriano
BN - Geovany Soto
BN - Martin Prado
Comments: I had the #2 pick overall in the league; there was no reason, even in a ten team league, that I should have been able to get both Hanley and Tulo. I have a gut feeling that the majority of the players in this league (I joined a random public league) are "amateurs" (not that I consider myself an expert). As strong as I think my offense is, it is my pitching staff that truly shines. I could use a little more batting average on my team, but if Soriano or Soto pans out with a strong comeback season, I'll have a valuable trade chip on my hands. I expect to dominate the league with this team, which is almost criminally amazing -- even for a 10-team league.
David MVP Eckstein -- Fantasyland 2 -- 12 man, 23 player, 5x5 std. roto auction:
C - Ryan Doumit ($1)
1B - Joey Votto ($28)
2B - Gordon Beckham ($15)
SS - Hanley Ramirez ($51)
3B - David Wright ($38)
OF - Grady Sizemore ($18)
OF - Alex Rios ($7)
OF - Franklin Gutierrez ($1)
DH - Chris Davis ($1)
SP - Josh Beckett ($18)
SP - Matt Cain ($19)
SP - Cole Hamels ($16)
RP - Heath Bell ($9)
RP - Jose Valverde ($7)
P - Colby Lewis ($1)
P - Phil Hughes ($1)
P - Bobby Jenks ($7)
P - Ricky Nolasco ($17)
BN - Nolan Reimold ($1)
BN - Martin Prado ($1)
BN - Franklin Morales ($1)
BN - Ryan Madson ($1)
BN - Justin Masterson ($1)
Comments: If you couldn't tell from the roster, I am attempting Stars & Scrubs this year. I definitely overspent too early on Hanley ($51), Wright ($38) and Votto ($28). I sent my entire budget in 13 players and watched depressingly as guys like Jay Bruce went for $3 in the final few picks. Next year, I'll save a few bucks for the end of the draft. My team is a little light on BA/SB's, but I think my team turned out quite well, all considered. If Nolan Reimold stays healthy, I think he is primed for a big season. I thought I was getting a great deal on elite closers for under $10 early on, but for some reason all of the closers went for around $5 in the league. Strange. I think this team's strong point is the pitching staff, though I will concede SexyRexy's is stronger thanks to his patient approach and aggressive bid war for King Felix.
David MVP Eckstein -- Mangolicious -- 12 man, 23 player, 5x5 std. draft league
C - Ryan Doumit
1B - Ryan Howard
2B - Chase Utley
SS - Derek Jeter
3B - David Wright
OF - Nelson Cruz
OF - Jay Bruce
OF - Carlos Gonzalez
DH - Carlos Quentin
SP - Felix Hernandez
SP - Cole Hamels
SP - Ricky Nolasco
RP - Billy Wagner
RP - Jose Valverde
P - John Lackey
P - Jason Frasor
P - Stephen Strausberg
P - Colby Lewis
BN - Chris Davis
BN - Brandon Lyon
BN - Brandon Webb
BN - Derek Lowe
BN - Drew Stubbs
Comments: You might notice a lot of overlap between this team and my auction team. I am expecting big things from my outfield this year, such as a .282/30/20 season from Nelson Cruz and a .278/35/10 season from Jay Bruce, but there is definitely some risk there. I by far have the best infield in the league, thanks to what used to be strong pitching depth. In a period of 24 hours, my entire roster changed. I traded away brand name studs like Jon Lester for "riskier" players like Nolasco, while upgrading other positions, while trading away seven closers to upgrade three. My team is a little light on strikeouts and steals at the moment, but I should be golden everywhere else. My big regret on the draft is taking Brandon Webb over Brett Anderson. At the time, my team had much more depth and I felt I could take a risk with Webb as the 120th overall pick. In hindsight, I could use another reliable starter, as Strausberg probably won't pitch in the majors till June. All in all, I love this team.
Jizz In My Pence -- Alcoholics '10 -- 10 man, 24 player, 5x5 std. draft league
C - Kurt Suzuki
1B - Adam Dunn
2B - Robinson Cano
SS - Hanley Ramirez
3B - Gordon Beckham
MI - Troy Tulowitzky
CI - Chris Davis
OF - Nick Markakis
OF - Jay Bruce
OF - Carlos Gonzalez
DH - Nyger Morgan
SP - Felix Hernandez
SP - Dan Haren
SP - Tommy Hanson
RP - Mike Gonzalez
RP - Billy Wagner
P - Josh Johnson
P - Ricky Nolasco
P - Max Scherzer
P - Bobby Jenks
BN - Franklin Moralez
BN - Alfonso Soriano
BN - Geovany Soto
BN - Martin Prado
Comments: I had the #2 pick overall in the league; there was no reason, even in a ten team league, that I should have been able to get both Hanley and Tulo. I have a gut feeling that the majority of the players in this league (I joined a random public league) are "amateurs" (not that I consider myself an expert). As strong as I think my offense is, it is my pitching staff that truly shines. I could use a little more batting average on my team, but if Soriano or Soto pans out with a strong comeback season, I'll have a valuable trade chip on my hands. I expect to dominate the league with this team, which is almost criminally amazing -- even for a 10-team league.
Sexy Rexy's Fantasy Advice: 2011 Pitching Rankings
UPDATE: I have updated my list and rankings from my original post
_______________________________________
I personally think my best skill set for fantasy baseball purposes is ranking pitchers. It's why I was first in the GOI auction league last year in ERA and WHIP and my knowledge helped me stream pitchers in my head-to-head keeper league that allowed me not only to win the counting stats, but to do so without hurting my ratio stats.
So now that all of my leagues have completed their drafts, I feel safe to announce my rankings. I understand that with baseball four days away chances are these rankings are not going to help anyone out (because the vast majority of people have completed their drafts) but I like having my opinion on the record.
Before we begin, I'd just like to say that coming up with all these pitchers is hard freaking work. We all can rank top 30, but it was a struggle to come up with 100 names.
Now, let the hating begin!
Top 100 Mixed League Pitchers
1) Tim Lincecum
2) Roy Halladay
3) Jon Lester
4) Felix Hernandez
5) Josh Johnson
6) Cliff Lee
7) Clayton Kershaw
8) Javier Vazquez
9) C.C. Sabathia
10) Francisco Liriano
11) Dan Haren
12) Yovani Gallardo
13) Zach Grienke (I'm a little pissed that Grienke got injured because I believed that Gallardo would put up better fantasy numbers than Grienke before the injury. On the plus side, I got Grienke for cheap in the GOI auction league)
14) Justin Verlander
15) Max Scherzer
16) Cole Hamels
17) Ubaldo Jiminez
18) Tommy Hanson
19) Chris Carpenter
20) Mat Latos
21) Shaun Marcum
22) Gavin Floyd
23) Jered Weaver
24) Wandy Rodriguez
25) Hiroki Kuroda
26) Roy Oswalt
27) Colby Lewis
28) Ryan Dempster
29) Daniel Hudson
30) Josh Beckett
31) Wade Davis
32) Brett Anderson
33) Matt Cain
34) David Price
35) Jorge De La Rosa
36) Clay Buchholz
37) Madison Bumgarner
38) Jhoulys Chacin
39) Chad Billingsley
40) Aaron Harang
41) Jeremy Hellickson
42) Jason Hammel
43) Travis Wood
44) Tim Hudson
45) James Shields
46) Trevor Cahill
47) Jonathan Sanchez
48) Brandon Webb
49) Edison Volquez
50) Jake Peavy
51) Ted Lilly
52) Jaime Garcia
53) Phil Hughes
54) John Danks
55) Gio Gonzalez
56) Ricky Nolasco
57) Ricky Romero
58) C.J. Wilson
59) Edwin Jackson
60) Clayton Richard
61) Matt Garza
62) Ian Kennedy
63) Scott Baker
64) Phil Coke
65) A.J. Burnett
66) Joel Piniero
67) Jordan Zimmerman
68) Johnny Cueto
69) Kyle Drabek
70) Brian Matusz
71) Rich Harden
72) John Lackey
73) Anibal Sanchez
74) Carl Pavano
75) Brett Myers
76) Kyle McClellan
77) J.A. Happ
78) Brian Duensing
79) Bronson Arroyo
80) Tim Stauffer
81) Chris Young
82) Ervin Santana
83) Carlos Zambrano
84) Jair Jurrgens
85) Dallas Braden
86) Brandon Morrow
87) Brad Penny
88) Mike Leake
89) Derek Lowe
90) R.A. Dickey
91) Ivan Nova
92) Carlos Carasco
93) Marc Rzepczynski
94) Mike Pelfrey
95) Derek Holland
96) Dice-K
97) Jeremy Guthrie
98) Jon Garland
99) Jake Westbrook
100) Fausto Carmona
I'd be more than happy to put some board bet wagers based upon my list
_______________________________________
I personally think my best skill set for fantasy baseball purposes is ranking pitchers. It's why I was first in the GOI auction league last year in ERA and WHIP and my knowledge helped me stream pitchers in my head-to-head keeper league that allowed me not only to win the counting stats, but to do so without hurting my ratio stats.
So now that all of my leagues have completed their drafts, I feel safe to announce my rankings. I understand that with baseball four days away chances are these rankings are not going to help anyone out (because the vast majority of people have completed their drafts) but I like having my opinion on the record.
Before we begin, I'd just like to say that coming up with all these pitchers is hard freaking work. We all can rank top 30, but it was a struggle to come up with 100 names.
Now, let the hating begin!
Top 100 Mixed League Pitchers
1) Tim Lincecum
2) Roy Halladay
3) Jon Lester
4) Felix Hernandez
5) Josh Johnson
6) Cliff Lee
7) Clayton Kershaw
8) Javier Vazquez
9) C.C. Sabathia
10) Francisco Liriano
11) Dan Haren
12) Yovani Gallardo
13) Zach Grienke (I'm a little pissed that Grienke got injured because I believed that Gallardo would put up better fantasy numbers than Grienke before the injury. On the plus side, I got Grienke for cheap in the GOI auction league)
14) Justin Verlander
15) Max Scherzer
16) Cole Hamels
17) Ubaldo Jiminez
18) Tommy Hanson
19) Chris Carpenter
20) Mat Latos
21) Shaun Marcum
22) Gavin Floyd
23) Jered Weaver
24) Wandy Rodriguez
25) Hiroki Kuroda
26) Roy Oswalt
27) Colby Lewis
28) Ryan Dempster
29) Daniel Hudson
30) Josh Beckett
31) Wade Davis
32) Brett Anderson
33) Matt Cain
34) David Price
35) Jorge De La Rosa
36) Clay Buchholz
37) Madison Bumgarner
38) Jhoulys Chacin
39) Chad Billingsley
40) Aaron Harang
41) Jeremy Hellickson
42) Jason Hammel
43) Travis Wood
44) Tim Hudson
45) James Shields
46) Trevor Cahill
47) Jonathan Sanchez
48) Brandon Webb
49) Edison Volquez
50) Jake Peavy
51) Ted Lilly
52) Jaime Garcia
53) Phil Hughes
54) John Danks
55) Gio Gonzalez
56) Ricky Nolasco
57) Ricky Romero
58) C.J. Wilson
59) Edwin Jackson
60) Clayton Richard
61) Matt Garza
62) Ian Kennedy
63) Scott Baker
64) Phil Coke
65) A.J. Burnett
66) Joel Piniero
67) Jordan Zimmerman
68) Johnny Cueto
69) Kyle Drabek
70) Brian Matusz
71) Rich Harden
72) John Lackey
73) Anibal Sanchez
74) Carl Pavano
75) Brett Myers
76) Kyle McClellan
77) J.A. Happ
78) Brian Duensing
79) Bronson Arroyo
80) Tim Stauffer
81) Chris Young
82) Ervin Santana
83) Carlos Zambrano
84) Jair Jurrgens
85) Dallas Braden
86) Brandon Morrow
87) Brad Penny
88) Mike Leake
89) Derek Lowe
90) R.A. Dickey
91) Ivan Nova
92) Carlos Carasco
93) Marc Rzepczynski
94) Mike Pelfrey
95) Derek Holland
96) Dice-K
97) Jeremy Guthrie
98) Jon Garland
99) Jake Westbrook
100) Fausto Carmona
I'd be more than happy to put some board bet wagers based upon my list
If A Rational Person Choose the All-Star Ballots: AL Version
I don't care who starts because they're all pretty damn good. I will admit the best of the best of the best won't be playing because we can only take 33 guys and every team needs to have a representative, but this list will be much better than the actual list
C:
Victor Martinez (Indians)
Joe Mauer (Twins)
1B:
Carlos Pena (Rays)
Kevin Youkilis (Red Sox)
Mark Texeira (Yankees)
2B:
Aaron Hill (Blue Jays)
Ian Kinsler (Rangers)
3B:
Evan Longoria (Rays)
Scott Rolen (Blue Jays)
SS:
Derek Jeter (Yankees)
Jason Bartlett (Rays)
OF:
Carl Crawford (Rays)
Jermaine Dye (White Sox)
Torii Hunter (Angels)
Adam Jones (Orioles)
Jason Bay (Red Sox)
Shin-Soo Choo (Indians)
Adam Lind (Blue Jays)
Ben Zobrist (Rays)
SP:
Zach Grienks (Royals)
Justin Verlander (Tigers)
Edwin Jackson (Tigers)
Jon Lester (Red Sox)
Roy Halladay (Blue Jays)
Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
Josh Beckett (Red Sox)
Dallas Braden (A's)
RP:
Matt Thorton (White Sox)
Joe Nathan (Twins)
Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox)
David Aardsma (Mariners)
Last man: Russell Branyan (Mariners)
My apologies to: Justin Morneau, Miguel Cabrera, Johnny Damon, Nick Blackburn, Jarrod Washburn, A.J. Burnett, Jered Weaver, Mark Buerhle
Now I will admit for the most part the real All-Star ballot was correct but some few notables like Ichiro and especially Josh Hamilton I don't like on the real team
C:
Victor Martinez (Indians)
Joe Mauer (Twins)
1B:
Carlos Pena (Rays)
Kevin Youkilis (Red Sox)
Mark Texeira (Yankees)
2B:
Aaron Hill (Blue Jays)
Ian Kinsler (Rangers)
3B:
Evan Longoria (Rays)
Scott Rolen (Blue Jays)
SS:
Derek Jeter (Yankees)
Jason Bartlett (Rays)
OF:
Carl Crawford (Rays)
Jermaine Dye (White Sox)
Torii Hunter (Angels)
Adam Jones (Orioles)
Jason Bay (Red Sox)
Shin-Soo Choo (Indians)
Adam Lind (Blue Jays)
Ben Zobrist (Rays)
SP:
Zach Grienks (Royals)
Justin Verlander (Tigers)
Edwin Jackson (Tigers)
Jon Lester (Red Sox)
Roy Halladay (Blue Jays)
Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
Josh Beckett (Red Sox)
Dallas Braden (A's)
RP:
Matt Thorton (White Sox)
Joe Nathan (Twins)
Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox)
David Aardsma (Mariners)
Last man: Russell Branyan (Mariners)
My apologies to: Justin Morneau, Miguel Cabrera, Johnny Damon, Nick Blackburn, Jarrod Washburn, A.J. Burnett, Jered Weaver, Mark Buerhle
Now I will admit for the most part the real All-Star ballot was correct but some few notables like Ichiro and especially Josh Hamilton I don't like on the real team
A “30 Teams In 30 Days” Substitute
I was watching some Baseball Tonight recently and to fill time yet be informative, they had Buster Olney and company talk about the best and up and coming from each division. Since our 30 teams in 30 Days didn’t really pan out, I thought this might be a nice substitute. Now frankly, I absolutely know there is going to be some argument, especially considering most of the “30 Teams In 30 Days” argument came from information about specific players and not about the teams as a whole (*cough cough* MVP Eckstein). I am way too lazy to put exact reasoning behind each of these players but I trust you there is. I used information from PECOTA and Fangraphs.com to come up with the information so there is clearly expert rationale behind my picks. But by no means is this list to be the end all be all. There is clearly reasons for other players to be on this list and clearly fine stats to prove why other players to be swapped. With this, I in fact expect and encourage debate and this is meant to be a fun little baseball tidbit and not so much a forum for attacking and pissing each other off. So with out further ado, my list…
AL Central:
-Cy Young: Fransisco Liriano (SP, MIN)
-MVP: Grady Sizemore (CF, CLE)
-Rolaids Reliever: Joe Nathan (CL, MIN)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Denard Span (OF, MIN)
-Breakout Star (Pitcher): Kevin Slowey (SP, MIN)
-Gold Glover: Carlos Gomez (OF, MIN)/ Brian Anderson (CF, CWS)
-X Factor: Cleveland rotation. I think the Twins will take this division because they’re rotation in awesome, they have the defense to back it up, and while their offense isn’t prolific, no start will really end up like 2007 Matt Cain (awesome ERA, losing record. However, if the Indians rotation end up vastly exceeding expectations, then the can easily win this division because they have an awesome bullpen and offense.
AL East:
-Cy Young: Josh Beckett (SP, BOS)
-MVP: David Ortiz (DH, BOS)
-Rolaids Reliever: Jonathan Papelbon (CL, BOS)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Matt Wieters (C, BAL)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): David Price (P, TAM)
-Gold Glover: Carl Crawford (OF, TAM)
-X Factor: Health of Yankees rotation. That rotation truly is awesome but the Yankees have absolutely no depth. If one pitcher gets injured, especially for a significant amount of time, this team is screwed. But if they stay relatively healthy all season long, they can make the playoffs
AL West:
-Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (SP, SEA)
-MVP: Ian Kinsler (2B, TEX)
-Rolaids Reliever: Brad Ziegler (CL, OAK)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Nelson Cruz (OF, TEX)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Brandon Morrow (P/CL, SEA)
-Gold Glover: Orlando Cabrera (SS, OAK)
-X Factor: Effectiveness of A’s rotation. The division really looks like its all for the Angels taking just because everyone else looks so weak this year. However, if the A’s have another great year and the Angels falter (like they’re starting too with all the rotation injuries), then the A’s can win this division. (Even though Eckstein thinks the A’s already will win it).
NL Central:
-Cy Young: Rich Harden (SP, CHC). He needs to stay healthy though like he did last year.
-MVP: Albert Pujols (1B, STL)
-Rolaids Reliever: Carlos Marmol (RP, CHC)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Joey Votto (1B, CIN)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Yovani Gallardo (SP, MIL)
-Gold Glover: Mike Cameron (OF, MIN)
-X Factor: Dusty Baker and the Reds rotation. If the Cubs DON’T win this division then I will laugh hysterically for like about a week. The only team that even would have a miniscule chance would be the Reds, and on paper, the Reds have a decent rotation. And if by some miracle Dusty Baker doesn’t destroy these pitchers, then the Reds will have a chance to compete.
NL West:
-Cy Young: Dan Haren (SP, ARI)
-MVP: Manny Rameriz (OF, LAD)
-Rolaids Reliever: Jonathan Broxton (CL, LAD)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Chris Iannetta (C, COL)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Jonathan Sanchez (SP, SFG)
-Gold Glover: Randy Winn (OF, SFG)
-X Factor: Giants Bullpen. I view this team like the Twins, except slightly shittier. They have a good, deep starting rotation, defense, and just enough offense. If the Giants end up having a bullpen this year, then this team can win the division.
NL East:
-Cy Young: Javier Vazquez (SP, ATL)
-MVP: Hanley Rameriz (SS, FLA)
-Rolaids Reliever: Brad Lidge (CL, PHI)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Elijah Dukes (OF, WAS)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Josh Johnson (SP, FLA)
-Gold Glover: Jimmy Rollins (SS, PHI)
-X Factor: Mets rotation. The Braves have a damn good rotation and great defense which will carry them far. The Phillies have an above average, deep rotation, a good bullpen (one of the few teams in recent history to have a consistent bullpen year to year) and a great offense. The Mets have a prolific offense and a much improved bullpen (were the relievers overpaid, absolutely, did the Mets NEED to do it, of course). So if the Mets want to stay in contention this year, that rotation needs to be just as strong.
Something I noticed, the NL East is the only division to have all five teams represented. The AL Central is the most lopsided. But then again, this is just my opinion.
Just a quick note: being avid and extremely thorough fantasy baseball fans and fantasy baseball fans, you might view my break out stars as like “what the fuck?” But essentially all of those players are people the average baseball fan has never heard of. They are people 1) in/were in the minor leagues expected to be great (i.e. Wieters, Cruz), 2) young guys who poised to have a breakout awesome year (i.e. Slowey, Sanchez), or 3) guys who have been in the leagues a few years and are essentially “developed” and will show the world why the should have been drafted higher in fantasy baseball drafts (i.e. Iannetta, Votto). Essentially, “breakout” means you haven’t really “produced” in the big leagues for any reason and will do so in 2009.
AL Central:
-Cy Young: Fransisco Liriano (SP, MIN)
-MVP: Grady Sizemore (CF, CLE)
-Rolaids Reliever: Joe Nathan (CL, MIN)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Denard Span (OF, MIN)
-Breakout Star (Pitcher): Kevin Slowey (SP, MIN)
-Gold Glover: Carlos Gomez (OF, MIN)/ Brian Anderson (CF, CWS)
-X Factor: Cleveland rotation. I think the Twins will take this division because they’re rotation in awesome, they have the defense to back it up, and while their offense isn’t prolific, no start will really end up like 2007 Matt Cain (awesome ERA, losing record. However, if the Indians rotation end up vastly exceeding expectations, then the can easily win this division because they have an awesome bullpen and offense.
AL East:
-Cy Young: Josh Beckett (SP, BOS)
-MVP: David Ortiz (DH, BOS)
-Rolaids Reliever: Jonathan Papelbon (CL, BOS)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Matt Wieters (C, BAL)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): David Price (P, TAM)
-Gold Glover: Carl Crawford (OF, TAM)
-X Factor: Health of Yankees rotation. That rotation truly is awesome but the Yankees have absolutely no depth. If one pitcher gets injured, especially for a significant amount of time, this team is screwed. But if they stay relatively healthy all season long, they can make the playoffs
AL West:
-Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (SP, SEA)
-MVP: Ian Kinsler (2B, TEX)
-Rolaids Reliever: Brad Ziegler (CL, OAK)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Nelson Cruz (OF, TEX)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Brandon Morrow (P/CL, SEA)
-Gold Glover: Orlando Cabrera (SS, OAK)
-X Factor: Effectiveness of A’s rotation. The division really looks like its all for the Angels taking just because everyone else looks so weak this year. However, if the A’s have another great year and the Angels falter (like they’re starting too with all the rotation injuries), then the A’s can win this division. (Even though Eckstein thinks the A’s already will win it).
NL Central:
-Cy Young: Rich Harden (SP, CHC). He needs to stay healthy though like he did last year.
-MVP: Albert Pujols (1B, STL)
-Rolaids Reliever: Carlos Marmol (RP, CHC)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Joey Votto (1B, CIN)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Yovani Gallardo (SP, MIL)
-Gold Glover: Mike Cameron (OF, MIN)
-X Factor: Dusty Baker and the Reds rotation. If the Cubs DON’T win this division then I will laugh hysterically for like about a week. The only team that even would have a miniscule chance would be the Reds, and on paper, the Reds have a decent rotation. And if by some miracle Dusty Baker doesn’t destroy these pitchers, then the Reds will have a chance to compete.
NL West:
-Cy Young: Dan Haren (SP, ARI)
-MVP: Manny Rameriz (OF, LAD)
-Rolaids Reliever: Jonathan Broxton (CL, LAD)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Chris Iannetta (C, COL)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Jonathan Sanchez (SP, SFG)
-Gold Glover: Randy Winn (OF, SFG)
-X Factor: Giants Bullpen. I view this team like the Twins, except slightly shittier. They have a good, deep starting rotation, defense, and just enough offense. If the Giants end up having a bullpen this year, then this team can win the division.
NL East:
-Cy Young: Javier Vazquez (SP, ATL)
-MVP: Hanley Rameriz (SS, FLA)
-Rolaids Reliever: Brad Lidge (CL, PHI)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Elijah Dukes (OF, WAS)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Josh Johnson (SP, FLA)
-Gold Glover: Jimmy Rollins (SS, PHI)
-X Factor: Mets rotation. The Braves have a damn good rotation and great defense which will carry them far. The Phillies have an above average, deep rotation, a good bullpen (one of the few teams in recent history to have a consistent bullpen year to year) and a great offense. The Mets have a prolific offense and a much improved bullpen (were the relievers overpaid, absolutely, did the Mets NEED to do it, of course). So if the Mets want to stay in contention this year, that rotation needs to be just as strong.
Something I noticed, the NL East is the only division to have all five teams represented. The AL Central is the most lopsided. But then again, this is just my opinion.
Just a quick note: being avid and extremely thorough fantasy baseball fans and fantasy baseball fans, you might view my break out stars as like “what the fuck?” But essentially all of those players are people the average baseball fan has never heard of. They are people 1) in/were in the minor leagues expected to be great (i.e. Wieters, Cruz), 2) young guys who poised to have a breakout awesome year (i.e. Slowey, Sanchez), or 3) guys who have been in the leagues a few years and are essentially “developed” and will show the world why the should have been drafted higher in fantasy baseball drafts (i.e. Iannetta, Votto). Essentially, “breakout” means you haven’t really “produced” in the big leagues for any reason and will do so in 2009.
Who Deserves To Be An All-Star: 2011 MLB, Part II
You can view Part I, Starting Lineup Edition here
Pitchers Edition
AL
Starter- Jered Weaver (LAA)
SP- Justin Verlander (DET)
SP- C.C. Sabathia (NYY)
RP- Jonathan Papelbon (BOS)
RP- Mariano Rivera (NYY)
RP- Sergio Santos (CWS)
SP- Felix Hernandez (SEA)
SP- C.J. Wilson (TEX)
SP- David Price (TAM)
SP- James Shields (TAM)
SP- Dan Haren (LAA)
SP- Josh Beckett (BOS)
NOTE: I would have no problem replacing Santos with David Robertson (NYY) who leads all AL RP in WAR and K/9 but, what can I say, I'm still old school and believe saves count for more than "regular ol'" middle relief.
NL
Starter- Roy Halladay (PHI)
SP- Cliff Lee (PHI)
SP- Cole Hamels (PHI)
RP- Craig Kimbrel (ATL)
RP- Johnny Venters (ATL)
RP- Carlos Marmol (CHI)
RP- John Axford (MIL)
SP- Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
SP- Tim Lincecum (SFG)
SP- Jordan Zimmerman (WAS)
SP- Anibal Sanchez (FLO)
SP- Tommy Hanson (ATL)
SP- Jair Jurrjens (ATL)
Pitchers Edition
AL
Starter- Jered Weaver (LAA)
SP- Justin Verlander (DET)
SP- C.C. Sabathia (NYY)
RP- Jonathan Papelbon (BOS)
RP- Mariano Rivera (NYY)
RP- Sergio Santos (CWS)
SP- Felix Hernandez (SEA)
SP- C.J. Wilson (TEX)
SP- David Price (TAM)
SP- James Shields (TAM)
SP- Dan Haren (LAA)
SP- Josh Beckett (BOS)
NOTE: I would have no problem replacing Santos with David Robertson (NYY) who leads all AL RP in WAR and K/9 but, what can I say, I'm still old school and believe saves count for more than "regular ol'" middle relief.
NL
Starter- Roy Halladay (PHI)
SP- Cliff Lee (PHI)
SP- Cole Hamels (PHI)
RP- Craig Kimbrel (ATL)
RP- Johnny Venters (ATL)
RP- Carlos Marmol (CHI)
RP- John Axford (MIL)
SP- Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
SP- Tim Lincecum (SFG)
SP- Jordan Zimmerman (WAS)
SP- Anibal Sanchez (FLO)
SP- Tommy Hanson (ATL)
SP- Jair Jurrjens (ATL)
Recap
We've done a lot of posts in the last week and several ones that I think are quite interesting (perhaps because I wrote them and am a pompous ass) ended up getting buried. Here's a quick look at the fantasy analysis (the majority of which focused on pitchers) I've done this week in case you're interested:
- I analyzed the recent success of both Jarrod Washburn and Kevin Millwood and their potential for sustained success
- I took a look at the recent struggles of Josh Beckett and found room for hope
- I also took a look at the recent struggles of Justin Verlander and found him to be the perfect buy low candidate for your fantasy team
- Lastings Milledge is struggling in AAA and will never amount to half of what Elijah Dukes can do
- I chronicled the recent life of Elijah Dukes
- I highlighted an article on ESPN that analyzed BABIP rates that could provide you with invaluable insight on how to scout baseball players
Who Deserves To Be An All-Star: 2011 MLB, Part III
You can view Part I, Starting Lineup Edition here
You can view Part II, Pitchers Edition here
Reserves Edition
The first part of this post is who I believe deserves to be an All-Star, independent of team. The second portion will be who I will have to replace because of the archaic notion that every team HAS to be represented in the All-Star game. No other sport has this silly rule and chances are if you are a team like the Baltimore Orioles who are so bad, chances are you do not have an All-Star on your team- that is why your team is doing so bad.
I also believe actually playing the game out is an antiquated notion because we have guys like Omar Infante in 2010 become an All-Star for the main reason that he can play multiple positions defensively and not because he actually deserved to be an All-Star.
AL
C- Carlos Santana (CLE)
1B- Mark Teixeira (NYY)
1B- Miguel Cabrera (DET)
1B- Paul Konerko (CWS)
2B- Ben Zobrist (TAM)
SS- Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE)
3B- Adrian Beltre (TEX)
OF- Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS)
OF- Carlos Quentin (CWS)
OF- Matt Joyce (TAM)
OF- Brett Gardner (NYY)
NL
C- Miguel Montero (ARI)
1B- Prince Fielder (MIL)
1B- Gaby Sanchez (FLO)
2B- Danny Espinosa (WAS)
2B- Brandon Phillips (CIN)
SS- Troy Tulowitzki (COL)
3B- Aramis Ramirez (CHC)
OF- Shane Victorino (PHI)
OF- Michael Bourne (HOU)
OF- Carlos Beltran (NYM)
OF- Jay Bruce (CIN)
DH/1B/OF- Lance Berkman (STL)
Unrepresented AL Teams:
- Minnesota Twins
- Baltimore Orioles
- Oakland Athletics
- Replace SP Scott Baker (MIN) with RP Sergio Santos (CWS)
- Replace C Matt Wieters (BAL) with C Carlos Santana (CLE)
- Replace SP Gio Gonzalez (OAK) with SP Josh Beckett (BOS)
Unrepresented NL Teams:
None.
You can view Part II, Pitchers Edition here
Reserves Edition
The first part of this post is who I believe deserves to be an All-Star, independent of team. The second portion will be who I will have to replace because of the archaic notion that every team HAS to be represented in the All-Star game. No other sport has this silly rule and chances are if you are a team like the Baltimore Orioles who are so bad, chances are you do not have an All-Star on your team- that is why your team is doing so bad.
I also believe actually playing the game out is an antiquated notion because we have guys like Omar Infante in 2010 become an All-Star for the main reason that he can play multiple positions defensively and not because he actually deserved to be an All-Star.
AL
C- Carlos Santana (CLE)
1B- Mark Teixeira (NYY)
1B- Miguel Cabrera (DET)
1B- Paul Konerko (CWS)
2B- Ben Zobrist (TAM)
SS- Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE)
3B- Adrian Beltre (TEX)
OF- Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS)
OF- Carlos Quentin (CWS)
OF- Matt Joyce (TAM)
OF- Brett Gardner (NYY)
NL
C- Miguel Montero (ARI)
1B- Prince Fielder (MIL)
1B- Gaby Sanchez (FLO)
2B- Danny Espinosa (WAS)
2B- Brandon Phillips (CIN)
SS- Troy Tulowitzki (COL)
3B- Aramis Ramirez (CHC)
OF- Shane Victorino (PHI)
OF- Michael Bourne (HOU)
OF- Carlos Beltran (NYM)
OF- Jay Bruce (CIN)
DH/1B/OF- Lance Berkman (STL)
Unrepresented AL Teams:
- Minnesota Twins
- Baltimore Orioles
- Oakland Athletics
- Replace SP Scott Baker (MIN) with RP Sergio Santos (CWS)
- Replace C Matt Wieters (BAL) with C Carlos Santana (CLE)
- Replace SP Gio Gonzalez (OAK) with SP Josh Beckett (BOS)
Unrepresented NL Teams:
None.
Shopping For Value: Starting Pitchers
I've taken the laboring pains of compiling a list of all current starting pitchers (minus a few like Jason Marquis) and mapping out their current ERAs, FIPs, xFIPs and ZiPS-projected rest of season FIPs (zFIP) to create a value chart of "who to buy" and "who to sell"
You can access the file via File Share by clicking here. Obviously, you need to use your best judgment when evaluating players. Do not blindly accept the numbers; make sure also to look at xFIP and career GB% before making any moves. That said...
10 Pitchers To Acquire:
10 Pitchers To Sell:
You can access the file via File Share by clicking here. Obviously, you need to use your best judgment when evaluating players. Do not blindly accept the numbers; make sure also to look at xFIP and career GB% before making any moves. That said...
10 Pitchers To Acquire:
- Javier Vazquez (9.00 ERA, 3.66 zFIP)
- Jake Peavy (7.66 ERA, 3.99 zFIP)
- Carlos Zambrano (7.40 ERA, 3.98 zFIP)
- Justin Verlander (6.95 ERA, 3.56 xFIP)
- Jon Lester (6.23 ERA, 3.72 zFIP)
- Dan Haren (5.19 ERA, 3.26 zFIP)
- Scott Kazmir (7.20 ERA, 4.27 zFIP)
- Jason Hammel (8.04 ERA, 4.06 zFIP)
- Josh Beckett (5.26 ERA, 3.47 zFIP)
- Chad Billingsley (3.48 ERA, 5.40 zFIP)
10 Pitchers To Sell:
- Carlos Silva (0.95 ERA, 4.34 zFIP. 4.05 xFIP)
- Barry Zito (1.32 ERA, 4.40 zFIP, 4.06 xFIP)
- Mike Pelfrey (0.69 ERA, 4.30 zFIP, 4.22 xFIP)
- John Danks (1.55 ERA, 4.24 zFIP, 3.50 xFIP)
- David Price (2.20 ERA, 4.57 zFIP, 3.82 xFIP)
- Justin Duchscherer (1.82 ERA, 3.91 xFIP, 4.53 xFIP)
- Fausto Carmona (2.96 ERA, 4.72 zFIP, 5.10 xFIP)
- Ben Sheets (2.74 ERA, 4.31 zFIP, 5.22 xFIP)
- Jeff Nieman (3.27 ERA, 4.66 xFIP, 4.87 zFIP)
- AJ Burnett (3.20 ERA, 4.27 zFIP, 4.47 xFIP)
Is Javier Vazquez Hall Of Fame Material?
It's an interesting question to ask. On the surface, Javier Vazquez seems like the most unclutch pitcher in the world. His ERA has been below 4.40 only once in the past five seasons and he is notorious for pitching poorly when the game matters most. If Win-Loss records meant anything (which they do not), his five year 63-61 mark would be nothing to talk about.
But that's where all my "criticism" of Javi ends. If you look beneath the situational numbers, you find one of baseball's premier pitchers. Over the past five seasons (1041.1 IP), Javier Vazquez has struck out 939 batters (8.12 K/9) and walked a mere 273 (2.39 BB/9). Even with his high 1.25 HR/9 rate over that five year period, Vasquez still managed to post a FIP just below 4 (3.99), despite playing 4 of those 5 seasons at baseball's most home run friendly parks. If you remove Vasquez's disastrous 2004 campaign from this analysis and we look at the four year period from 2005-2008, we find even more to love about Ozzie's whipping boy.
At HR friendly US Cellular and Chase Field between 2004 and 2008, Javier Vazquez struck out 789, walked 213 and only gave up 112 long balls in 843.1 IP. That's good for a 8.42 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, and remarkable (given the circumstance that Javi is a flyball pitcher at two home run inflating parks) 1.19 HR/9 -- significant improvements on his already great peripherals from the five year analysis. Javi's FIP over this period is a very respectable 3.81.
So if Javi is so great, why were his numbers so terrible over this period of time? The answers are simple.
Vazquez's stint on the Yankees in 2004 was just a down year. Vazquez gave a then career high amount of bombs (33) in a career low amount of innings (198). Vazquez, who had just moved from the NL to the AL that season had to make adjustments and in doing so, his K/9 fell from 9.40 per nine in 2003 to a career low 6.82 per nine in 2004. His walk rate, though not terrible, spiked to a career high 2.73 per nine. Following his down year on the Yankees, Vazquez adjusted and his peripherals returned to normal. His K/9 rose and BB/9 fell to match his career rates and would remain pretty consistent from 2005-2008. However, as Vazquez spent a lot of time in both Chase Field and US Cellular Field, he was still susceptible to the long ball. In 2005, Javier Vazquez topped his home run mark from 2004 with 35 bombs allowed, but did so in 18 extra innings of work. When Vazquez was traded from the Diamondbacks to the White Sox, he not only made the transition from the NL to the AL again (this time, Javi would make the necessary adjustments and his peripherals would remain constant), he moved to one of the worst defensive teams in all of baseball. With the notable exception of Joe Crede, who saw limited playing time due to back injury complications from 2006-2008, and Orlando Cabrera, who only played for the team for one season, the entire White Sox infield and outfield have not only been one of the most below average defensive teams in baseball, but also one of the least efficient at converting balls-in-play into outs. In 2007 and 2008, the White Sox respectively ranked 23rd and 20th in defensive efficiency. If not for Orlando Cabrera last season, the White Sox would have ranked even lower in 2008. Furthermore, in 2006 and 2008, Javier Vazquez's BABIPs were .321 and .328, both career high marks.
Some combination of bad luck, poor defense and home run inflating parks have resulted in a stigma being placed upon Javier Vazquez in both real life and fantasy baseball. His K/9 and BB/9 (and thus K/BB) rates have been top of the league since 2000. In fact, since 2000, the only players who have better control (K/BB) rates than Vazquez are Jake Peavy, Pedro Martinez, Josh Beckett, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens. Pretty exclusive company.
Currently, 33 year old Javi has 11 seasons and 200 strikeouts to his name. Since 2000, Javi has managed to pitch 200+ innings in every seasons except 2004 (where he tossed 198 innings). If -- and with pitchers, this is a big if -- Vazquez can pitch another five seasons in the big leagues and maintain the same ratios he did last season (at offense inflating US Cellular Field), Vazquez will be able to reach the exclusive 3000 strikeout mark by the age of 38. If -- again, a BIG if -- he can pitch at this rate for ten seasons, he will reasonably be able to reach the 4,000 K plateau, something that only four other pitchers have ever been able to do.
Javier Vazquez may not have a sexy win total or ERA, but his ratios suggest that he's hall of fame material thus far into his career. If he reaches the 3,000 strikeout mark (let alone the 4,000 K mark), Javi should be a lock to get in by the time his career ends. If Vazquez were to pitch until he was 41 and eclipse the 3,000 K mark at age 38, he could easily pass Greg Maddux for 10th place on the all-time strikeouts list. Fuck Wins, Fuck ERA. Sub-poor offensive teams like the 1999-2003 Expos and 2007 White Sox have prevented Vazquez from racking up elite win totals, while poor defensive teams like the 2005 Diamondbacks and 2007-2008 White Sox have inflated his ERA. Javi deserves a spot in Cooperstown so far.
Now that Vazquez has moved from a offense-friendly park in the AL to an offense-neutral park in the NL, his numbers should only improve going as his K/9 increases/maintains and HR/9 declines. Expect big things from Vazquez going forward.
But that's where all my "criticism" of Javi ends. If you look beneath the situational numbers, you find one of baseball's premier pitchers. Over the past five seasons (1041.1 IP), Javier Vazquez has struck out 939 batters (8.12 K/9) and walked a mere 273 (2.39 BB/9). Even with his high 1.25 HR/9 rate over that five year period, Vasquez still managed to post a FIP just below 4 (3.99), despite playing 4 of those 5 seasons at baseball's most home run friendly parks. If you remove Vasquez's disastrous 2004 campaign from this analysis and we look at the four year period from 2005-2008, we find even more to love about Ozzie's whipping boy.
At HR friendly US Cellular and Chase Field between 2004 and 2008, Javier Vazquez struck out 789, walked 213 and only gave up 112 long balls in 843.1 IP. That's good for a 8.42 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, and remarkable (given the circumstance that Javi is a flyball pitcher at two home run inflating parks) 1.19 HR/9 -- significant improvements on his already great peripherals from the five year analysis. Javi's FIP over this period is a very respectable 3.81.
So if Javi is so great, why were his numbers so terrible over this period of time? The answers are simple.
Vazquez's stint on the Yankees in 2004 was just a down year. Vazquez gave a then career high amount of bombs (33) in a career low amount of innings (198). Vazquez, who had just moved from the NL to the AL that season had to make adjustments and in doing so, his K/9 fell from 9.40 per nine in 2003 to a career low 6.82 per nine in 2004. His walk rate, though not terrible, spiked to a career high 2.73 per nine. Following his down year on the Yankees, Vazquez adjusted and his peripherals returned to normal. His K/9 rose and BB/9 fell to match his career rates and would remain pretty consistent from 2005-2008. However, as Vazquez spent a lot of time in both Chase Field and US Cellular Field, he was still susceptible to the long ball. In 2005, Javier Vazquez topped his home run mark from 2004 with 35 bombs allowed, but did so in 18 extra innings of work. When Vazquez was traded from the Diamondbacks to the White Sox, he not only made the transition from the NL to the AL again (this time, Javi would make the necessary adjustments and his peripherals would remain constant), he moved to one of the worst defensive teams in all of baseball. With the notable exception of Joe Crede, who saw limited playing time due to back injury complications from 2006-2008, and Orlando Cabrera, who only played for the team for one season, the entire White Sox infield and outfield have not only been one of the most below average defensive teams in baseball, but also one of the least efficient at converting balls-in-play into outs. In 2007 and 2008, the White Sox respectively ranked 23rd and 20th in defensive efficiency. If not for Orlando Cabrera last season, the White Sox would have ranked even lower in 2008. Furthermore, in 2006 and 2008, Javier Vazquez's BABIPs were .321 and .328, both career high marks.
Some combination of bad luck, poor defense and home run inflating parks have resulted in a stigma being placed upon Javier Vazquez in both real life and fantasy baseball. His K/9 and BB/9 (and thus K/BB) rates have been top of the league since 2000. In fact, since 2000, the only players who have better control (K/BB) rates than Vazquez are Jake Peavy, Pedro Martinez, Josh Beckett, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens. Pretty exclusive company.
Currently, 33 year old Javi has 11 seasons and 200 strikeouts to his name. Since 2000, Javi has managed to pitch 200+ innings in every seasons except 2004 (where he tossed 198 innings). If -- and with pitchers, this is a big if -- Vazquez can pitch another five seasons in the big leagues and maintain the same ratios he did last season (at offense inflating US Cellular Field), Vazquez will be able to reach the exclusive 3000 strikeout mark by the age of 38. If -- again, a BIG if -- he can pitch at this rate for ten seasons, he will reasonably be able to reach the 4,000 K plateau, something that only four other pitchers have ever been able to do.
Javier Vazquez may not have a sexy win total or ERA, but his ratios suggest that he's hall of fame material thus far into his career. If he reaches the 3,000 strikeout mark (let alone the 4,000 K mark), Javi should be a lock to get in by the time his career ends. If Vazquez were to pitch until he was 41 and eclipse the 3,000 K mark at age 38, he could easily pass Greg Maddux for 10th place on the all-time strikeouts list. Fuck Wins, Fuck ERA. Sub-poor offensive teams like the 1999-2003 Expos and 2007 White Sox have prevented Vazquez from racking up elite win totals, while poor defensive teams like the 2005 Diamondbacks and 2007-2008 White Sox have inflated his ERA. Javi deserves a spot in Cooperstown so far.
Now that Vazquez has moved from a offense-friendly park in the AL to an offense-neutral park in the NL, his numbers should only improve going as his K/9 increases/maintains and HR/9 declines. Expect big things from Vazquez going forward.
Revisiting DME's Hatred Of Dustin Pedroia
I made a lot of predictions for the 2009 season. Some were correct (see Javier Vazquez, Josh Beckett (May-August), Justin Verlander, Dice-K, et. al). Some were incredibly wrong (see John Lester, Kevin Youkilis, Gavin Floyd, Felix Hernandez, et. al). But one thing that I have adamantly argued, perhaps more than my love for Dan Haren is how overrated I thought Dustin Pedroia was -- both in real life and fantasy -- heading into this season.
I had some harsh things to say about Dustin Pedroia going into 2009:
DeRosa 2009:
.250/.319/.433 (.327 wOBA),23 HR, 78 R, 78 RBI, 3 SB
Pedroia 2009:
.296/.371/.447 (.360 wOBA), 15 HR, 115 R, 72 RBI, 20 SB
Pedroia definitely regressed some this season, but retained most of his value from 2008. Yahoo ranked Pedroia as the 8th best 2B and 49th best fantasy player overall. Pedroia made some gains in his peripherals (increased walk rate, decreased strikeout rate) and regressed in others (Pedroia saw his ISO fall from .167 to .152, he clipped less LD's and his speed score dipped a full point (which can be noticed in the decrease in SB%). Pedroia' .360 wOBA, however, is hardly anything to sneeze at (let alone for a second basemen) and his 2009 level of production is more akin to what I have associated his skill set with. Take note that Pedroia's Yahoo ranking going into 2009 was 23. He was clearly overrated last season, but perhaps after a more "milding" 2009, Pedroia's 2010 fantasy value will be more break-even than loss.
DeRosa, on the other hand, took a nose dive in the batting average department due to a nose dive in line drives (from +22% from 2006-2008 to 16.6% in 2009) and therefore BABIP (.286 BABIP in 2009 [in line with his seasonal xBABIP], despite a career .315 mark). Perhaps much of it has to due with the wrist injury, but DeRosa's ISO fell from .196 to .183, the walk rate dipped from the double digit rates he posted on the Cubs to 8.4% and the strikeout rate also increased. The resulting .327 wOBA was league average and Fangraphs generously valued him at a temperate 1.6 WAR due to the fact that he played only slightly below average defense at 2B last year (see Positional Adjustment). DeRosa was ranked as the 144th player going into 2009 and ended up being #183 by the end of the season (21st best 2B, behind a handful of undrafted players). These are not good signs for a soon-to-be 35 year old 2B coming off of wrist surgery.
So yeah, I was wrong about DeRosa in 2009.
However, if DeRosa was healthy and not playing on the shitty offensive "team" that was the Indians for half of last season, who knows what his numbers would have looked like. Even with the regression in BB%, K%, and ISO, if you were to adjust DeRosa's 2009 batting line for a .315 BABIP (I have to make the assumption that DeRosa's wrist problems hindered his ability to drive the ball in 2009, given his Matt Kemp-like LD% from 2006-2008), DeRosa's 2009 BA would be .282, his OBP would be in the .350 range and, assuming the same ISO for the additional hits, his SLG would be around .533. A .282/.350/.533 batting line (.883 OPS) is nothing to sneeze at and would have provided much more offensive value than Pedroia's .813 OPS.
So what am I saying? Basically, DeRosa, in my opinion got screwed by his wrist injury and bad luck. If I am right and DeRosa can fully recover from his off-season wrist surgery (ask Derrek Lee, it's definitely not something that's easy to come back from), he has the potential to continue to provide much value, wherever his team may play him.
I refuse to apologize for my prediction because although I may have been wrong, I still believe in DeRosa. A 25 HR season with 100 R/RBI was not out of the question if he was on a better team and healthy. Let's hope he gets fixed up for next year and continue to be more than just the clubhouse presence he is well known for (and the Cubs so desperately missed).
On a separate note, A-Rod went 0-4 last night with 3 K's. Let the flurry of "A-Rod is unclutch" headlines begin...
I had some harsh things to say about Dustin Pedroia going into 2009:
"Something about an MVP who can't hit 20 HRs in unsatisfying. While undeniably useful as 5 category 2B last year, his increasing GB/FB ratio and declining BB% are worrisome. With a strong LD% and speed, his high AVG should persist, but don't expect anything above 15 HRs. Considering that all but a few second basemen are second tier, it's not worth wasting a third round pick on a 2B (unless you get Kinlser or Utley at a ridiculous discount) when you can have the negligibly worse Mark DeRosa 12 rounds later."Was I right to hate on Pedroia? Let's look at their comparative batting lines.
DeRosa 2009:
.250/.319/.433 (.327 wOBA),23 HR, 78 R, 78 RBI, 3 SB
Pedroia 2009:
.296/.371/.447 (.360 wOBA), 15 HR, 115 R, 72 RBI, 20 SB
Pedroia definitely regressed some this season, but retained most of his value from 2008. Yahoo ranked Pedroia as the 8th best 2B and 49th best fantasy player overall. Pedroia made some gains in his peripherals (increased walk rate, decreased strikeout rate) and regressed in others (Pedroia saw his ISO fall from .167 to .152, he clipped less LD's and his speed score dipped a full point (which can be noticed in the decrease in SB%). Pedroia' .360 wOBA, however, is hardly anything to sneeze at (let alone for a second basemen) and his 2009 level of production is more akin to what I have associated his skill set with. Take note that Pedroia's Yahoo ranking going into 2009 was 23. He was clearly overrated last season, but perhaps after a more "milding" 2009, Pedroia's 2010 fantasy value will be more break-even than loss.
DeRosa, on the other hand, took a nose dive in the batting average department due to a nose dive in line drives (from +22% from 2006-2008 to 16.6% in 2009) and therefore BABIP (.286 BABIP in 2009 [in line with his seasonal xBABIP], despite a career .315 mark). Perhaps much of it has to due with the wrist injury, but DeRosa's ISO fell from .196 to .183, the walk rate dipped from the double digit rates he posted on the Cubs to 8.4% and the strikeout rate also increased. The resulting .327 wOBA was league average and Fangraphs generously valued him at a temperate 1.6 WAR due to the fact that he played only slightly below average defense at 2B last year (see Positional Adjustment). DeRosa was ranked as the 144th player going into 2009 and ended up being #183 by the end of the season (21st best 2B, behind a handful of undrafted players). These are not good signs for a soon-to-be 35 year old 2B coming off of wrist surgery.
So yeah, I was wrong about DeRosa in 2009.
However, if DeRosa was healthy and not playing on the shitty offensive "team" that was the Indians for half of last season, who knows what his numbers would have looked like. Even with the regression in BB%, K%, and ISO, if you were to adjust DeRosa's 2009 batting line for a .315 BABIP (I have to make the assumption that DeRosa's wrist problems hindered his ability to drive the ball in 2009, given his Matt Kemp-like LD% from 2006-2008), DeRosa's 2009 BA would be .282, his OBP would be in the .350 range and, assuming the same ISO for the additional hits, his SLG would be around .533. A .282/.350/.533 batting line (.883 OPS) is nothing to sneeze at and would have provided much more offensive value than Pedroia's .813 OPS.
So what am I saying? Basically, DeRosa, in my opinion got screwed by his wrist injury and bad luck. If I am right and DeRosa can fully recover from his off-season wrist surgery (ask Derrek Lee, it's definitely not something that's easy to come back from), he has the potential to continue to provide much value, wherever his team may play him.
I refuse to apologize for my prediction because although I may have been wrong, I still believe in DeRosa. A 25 HR season with 100 R/RBI was not out of the question if he was on a better team and healthy. Let's hope he gets fixed up for next year and continue to be more than just the clubhouse presence he is well known for (and the Cubs so desperately missed).
On a separate note, A-Rod went 0-4 last night with 3 K's. Let the flurry of "A-Rod is unclutch" headlines begin...
Paging Dr. Saltalamaccia!
Fantasy Baseball Registration starts next month! I'm no RotoAuthority, but I do play a mean hand at Fantasy. I tend to build very competitive teams that lose in the last week because I am a moron who plays H2H. This year, however, it's roto all the way, baby.
Come closer and closer to the MLB regular season, I will be posting fantasy primers and my personal recommendations and advice. Unfortunately, since the people in my league either write for this site or read it, I cannot disclose my super secret player targets for 2009 prior to our leagues draft date. In 2008, I covetted Hanley Ramirez, Arod, David Wright, Matt Holliday and Miggy as the top 5 picks (in order).
Since I tend to not draft elite pitchers early (since SP is a very deep category with many players who emerge post-draft), I will indicate now that I perceive the top SP producers for 2009 will be:
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Dan Haren
3. Scott Kazmir
4. Javier Vasquez
5. Josh Beckett
Notice a 161-million dollar player who isn't listed? You may call this a "conservative list," but I'm calling for Lincey (whose arm was designed by NASA) or K-mir to rack up close to 300 Ks this or next year. Word of advice, however: I would only draft one of them if they fell past round 3.
Let the comments flow, baby.
Come closer and closer to the MLB regular season, I will be posting fantasy primers and my personal recommendations and advice. Unfortunately, since the people in my league either write for this site or read it, I cannot disclose my super secret player targets for 2009 prior to our leagues draft date. In 2008, I covetted Hanley Ramirez, Arod, David Wright, Matt Holliday and Miggy as the top 5 picks (in order).
Since I tend to not draft elite pitchers early (since SP is a very deep category with many players who emerge post-draft), I will indicate now that I perceive the top SP producers for 2009 will be:
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Dan Haren
3. Scott Kazmir
4. Javier Vasquez
5. Josh Beckett
Notice a 161-million dollar player who isn't listed? You may call this a "conservative list," but I'm calling for Lincey (whose arm was designed by NASA) or K-mir to rack up close to 300 Ks this or next year. Word of advice, however: I would only draft one of them if they fell past round 3.
Let the comments flow, baby.
xWHIP and eFIP
The following comes from my latest article on The Hardball Times. All statistics are current through May 27, 2011.
Sabermetricians have shown that once the ball is out of the hands of the pitcher, the pitcher has very little control over the outcome of the ball put into play.
DIPS theory tells us that a pitcher controls a few things about the outcome of an at-bat, each to a variable degree. The pitcher has the most control over the elements of the game that only involve himself, and omit others. A pitcher is in almost absolute control over the general location of his pitch. There are some marginal or unpredictable variants such as temperature, weather, wind speed and wind direction that factor into pitch location, but a pitcher who does not hit his spots can generally only blame himself. He either gripped the ball incorrectly, released it too late, did not properly adjust his throw for weather condition, "has the jitters," just can't pitch, etc. A pitcher likewise almost completely (though less completely than location) controls intentional walks, which essentially eliminate the batter from the equation of the outcome. Though players like Miguel Cabrera and Jeff Francouer come to mind as the rare player who interferes with the pitcher's attempt to intentionally walk them, it is generally true that if a pitcher wants to intentionally walk a batter, it will happen.
Once the batter comes into the equation, the pitcher loses his control over the outcome. Once the pitch is released from his hands, he has done all he can do. It is then in the batter's hand as to whether contact is made, where on the ball the contact is made, how hard the ball is hit, and whether or not it is pulled, amongst various other variables. In this regard, a pitcher has some, but not total, control over unintentional walks and strikeouts. The pitcher tries to fool the batter, but the batter may or may not buy the bait. The fielders are irrelevant before the ball is put into play, so the outcome is largely dominated by an exercise in game theory between the batter and pitcher.
A pitcher also controls the tendency of the ball to be on the ground or in the air. As noted above, once the ball is released from the pitcher's hand, what happens to it is ultimately a question of what the batter does. A pitcher can throw the ball with heavy sink to induce ground balls, or throw it high in the zone to induce a popup, but the hitter, not the pitcher, ultimately controls the angle of trajectory, the force of contact, and the direction of the ball off the bat. Once contact is made, the ball is either put in play, in which case the pitcher's fielders have the ultimate control over what happens next, or the ball is foul, in which case the batter-pitcher game repeats, or the ball is a home run, over which the pitcher has some, but not ultimate, control. (This is the theory behind xFIP and using a normalized home run rate in lieu of the pitcher's actual home run rate as traditionally used in FIP.)
BABIP research by ball in play type out indicates that league fielding per batted ball type tends to be relatively stable. It tends to fluctuate annually, but only slightly and negligibly. For example, the expected hits rate on ground balls in play between 2004 and 2008 was .239. From 2008 to 2010, it was .236. So far this year, it is .238. The same is true for infield fly balls, line drives and outfield fly balls (though the latter two tend to fluctuate more, which is probably the result of scorer bias*). It is also true that line drive rate seems to remain relatively stable and out of pitcher control as well in the long run. Only a handful of pitchers have cumulative line drive rates that are not between 18 and 20 percent over the past five years, and most of those pitchers tend to be extreme batted-ball players. Even in the outlier, however, no pitcher has a line drive rate below 16 percent or above 22 percent. Noting this, you can probably say that Mat Latos' 9.2 percent line drive rate and Travis Woods' 24.5 percent line drive rate on the season are either the result of bad luck or funky scoring and that we should expect such to persist in the future.
*Note: scorer bias might make one skeptical of batted ball-based evaluation/prediction tools, but it is important to note that I am not, nor are most, preaching a black-and-white bible of truth with sabermetrics and sabermetric tools, but rather commenting upon the tendency of outcome or a rough baseline from which to make better, more informed decisions. Tools like tRA and the xWHIP Calculator are hardly perfect, but they lead to more informed analysis and decision-making.
From this research, I stood on the shoulders of men much smarter than myself and created the Expected WHIP (xWHIP) Calculator. (You can download the beta version for xWHIP3 by clicking here.) In case you are not familiar with how the xWHIP Calculator works, let me give you the quick rundown of how to use it and what it does. Refer to the picture of the beta of version 3.0 below (note: the 2008-2010 environment is loaded in the hits/outs created field; I do not have the runs created data for 2008-2010 to provide at this time).
The first and only manual step is data entry. Begin by entering data into the gray cells by using the player's page on Fangraphs. The xWHIP Calculator is calibrated to Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) batted ball data, and, to avoid unnecessary scorer bias through consistency, you need to enter BIS data, which is what is available on Fangraphs. You can also change the pink cells of "specialized data points," but will likely require information that is not publicly available to properly modify such. Hence, you should probably leave them untouched (well, unless you want to use a player's career home run per outfield flyball rate in lieu of the league average mark*).
*If you modify the HR/OFFB% cell, do not change the park factor cell, or you risk double counting.
Once you've entered the data, the rest is all automatic, courtesy of my tireless hours of work in creating the xWHIP Calculator. My xWHIP formula first adds up all the batted ball data, and then normalizes it based on a regressed line drive rate. I use 19 percent, or about the league average. Then, with my new "normalized" batted ball distribution, I multiply each ball in play form by its expected hits rate. This gives you expected hits. The calculator also also calculate expected home runs based on the normalized data.
Once a normalized batted ball distribution is created, the xWHIP Calculator also calculates an expected innings total (xIP). I calculate expected innings because actual innings pitched, like hits, is a function not only of player skill, but fielder interference/assistance and other statistical noise. A great or poor play is the difference between an extra batter faced and the end of the inning*. Expected innings is calculated by multiplying events by expected outs created by event. For example, a ground ball put in to play tends to result in 0.808 outs per occurrence. Caught stealing and pick off rates are something that varies by catcher and pitcher, but calculating such to be effectively utilized is something that I am not properly equipped to do. Hence, I use a league-average rate of .02 outs created per base runner to account for expected pickoffs and players who might get caught stealing. This formula gives me expected outs, which I then divide by three.
*This is why K% is more stable, indicative and, as a predictive/evaluational tool, valuable than K/9.
Using expected hits, expected home runs, and expected innings, as well as the other calculated data, we get a few valuable output points from the xWHIP Calculator. The primary purpose of the calculator and its calculations is to give a pitcher's expected WHIP. xWHIP may not be important from a purely sabermetrics standpoint, but fantasy baseball players find it quite useful. xWHIP is calculated in three ways. First, xWHIP1 calculates a pitcher's expected WHIP using actual innings pitched. Second, xWHIP2 calculates a pitcher's expected WHIP using expected innings (xIP). Finally, quick xWHIP, or qxWHIP, calculates a player's expected WHIP based purely on a player's actual innings pitched, strikeout total, and WHIP. qxWHIP was created by Alex Hambrick, and the theory behind it is explained here.
The xWHIP Calculator also has a quick-and-dirty defensive adjustment for pitchers that converts a team's defensive results into an expected "hits saved" compared to the hypothetical "league-average defense" per inning. This defensive adjustment has severe limitations (defense is hardly uniform infield-to-outfield, or player-to-player), and is optional, but it gives some sense of how a team's overall defense can be roughly expected to affect a player's "true talent" line.
In addition to xWHIP, however, the new versions of my xWHIP Calculator also tabulate two mainstream ERA estimators using normalized data. The first ERA estimator is eFIP, which is based on xFIP. xFIP is traditionally calculated by subtracting two times a pitcher's strikeout total by the sum of three times a pitcher's walk total plus 13 times .105 times that player's flyball total, all divided by innings pitched. The resulting figure is then added to some constant, usually 3.2, to scale xFIP to look like ERA. xFIP tends to be my ERA estimator of choice, but I have several problems with the popular version of the formula. First, it uses a pitcher's flyball total to calculate expected home runs. Flyball total is a composite of outfield fly balls and infield fly balls. As popups can never be home runs, it is silly to include them. In addition, home-run-per-outfield-fly-ball rates tend to be more stable over the long term than home-run-per-fly-ball rates.
Second, and perhaps this is offset by including popups in the traditional expected home run formula, xFIP does not account for line-drive home runs. Line-drive home runs are few and far between, but they do occur a few times per 100 hits that are scored as line drives.
Third, xFIP is tabulated irrespective of expected flyball or outfield flyball rate. Pitchers, as noted above, do not seem to have much control over line-drive rate. If a pitcher, particularly in smaller samples (which give you less valuable data outcomes), has an atypically low or high line-drive rate, then a pitcher's xFIP is skewed accordingly. The difference is, at most, a couple of home runs, but, like my infield flyball grudge with traditional xFIP, why use it if you don't have to?
Fourth, xFIP does not account for park factors. Each of the 30 major league parks has different park dimensions that uniquely affect home run totals. Petco and Busch Stadium affect pitcher's home runs allowed totals radically different than do the parks of Chicago. Players only play about 50 percent of their games at home, so you need to modify park factors accordingly, but the difference in expected ERA between Busch Stadium and Coors Field is substantial enough that it requires accounting, though that causes the xFIP formula to further sacrifice simplicity.
xFIP is a nice formula because it is simple and easy to calculate. Normally, accounting for my gripes would sacrifice much of xFIP's simplicity appeal. However, given all the calculations the xWHIP Calculator makes, calculating a modified expected FIP to correct for my gripes is simple. I term this modified xFIP formula "eFIP."
In addition to eFIP, the newest versions of the xWHIP Calculator will also calculated batted ball normalized versions of tRA or tERA, which I have termed "EXTRA." EXTRA is calculated the exact same way as tRA, but it uses the pitcher's normalized, not actual, batted ball data as the inputs.
Now that you know the parameters, let's look at some of the major league's leaders and losers in xWHIP, eFIP, and EXTRA using 2011's runs environment and statistics through May 27, 2011. You can download the data file by clicking here.
Before reviewing the data, take note of the following. First, the following calculations use major league outs/runs/hits numbers, not league-specific numbers, so American League pitchers will tend to fare worse than these numbers, while National League hitters will tend to perform better. Second, changes in a player's strikeout (xWHIP2) or walk rate (xWHIP1, xWHIP2) would have an appreciable effect on a pitcher's expected WHIP. Third, while only starting pitchers (pitchers with at least one game started) are included in my data file, with the exception of Zack Greinke, only starting pitchers with 30 or more expected innings are included in my leaderboard (136 starting pitchers qualify). Fourth, I am calculating WHIP with unintentional walks (BB-IBB+HBP, or uBB); uBB better evaluates a pitcher's control and expected baserunners. Finally, the league average xWHIP and eFIP are 1.32 and 4.00, respectively. The actual current major league average WHIP and FIP are 1.30 and 3.95, respectively.
First, the WHIP under-performers to date (calculated using "actual WHIP" (see above) minus the mean of a pitcher's xWHIP1 and xWHIP2):
Much of this leaderboard is populated with under-inspiring pitchers who, while unlikely, have pitched pretty poorly this year and are hardly worth a spot on your bench. Case in point: the injured John Lackey and "immutable" Kyle Davies. A few names do stand out, however. I think the ship sailed on Ryan Dempster (whose numbers are infinitely better if you omit his 0.1 inning pitched disaster at Arizona) after his 11-strikeout performance on May 13, but maybe some owner has not been paying close enough attention this past month (e.g., people in college). We all know Cliff Lee and Matt Garza have had their share of bad luck this year, but what about Chris Carpenter and Zack Greinke? Greinke's performance to date puts him in company with the top three guys in the league, but his 5.79 ERA has been ugly. If any owner is having second thoughts about the Royals ex-Ace, or is willing to deal him at market value, I'd strongly considering biting. And what about Bud Norris? I wrote about him last week, but his ownership rate is still below 50 percent (it actually went down a notch). I think a lot of people are overlooking just how good Norris has been this year. Jeff Francis and Travis Wood are a pair of pitchers who could help you in other categories without hurting your future WHIP.
Next, the WHIP over-performers to date (calculated using "actual WHIP" (see above) minus the mean of a pitcher's xWHIP1 and xWHIP2):
Here we find a lot of players with BABIP-deflated ERAs who are on the Atkins diet when it comes to strikeouts: Kyle Lohse and Zach Britton's combined strikeouts per nine rate (9.81) is equal to that of Bud Norris. Most of these "trailers" tend to be groundball pitchers because groundballs, while having a lower expected runs outcome per event, have a higher hits-resulting rate. A year of xWHIP has taught me that ERA and WHIP tend to be inversely related to groundball and flyball rates. Alexei Ogando throws hard, but can you really trust a flyball pitcher (64.5 percent AO%) in Texas (inflates home runs by 10 percent)? Ogando's SwStr% (8.9 percent) indicates he is capable of slightly better than league-average strikeout totals. As you might notice not all players on this board are "bad" or have "bad" expected WHIPs (e.g., Josh Beckett). This is only a tool to help figuring out who has been under/over-performing, and an under-performer may very well be worth keeping.
Then we have the pitchers who are secretly better than their listed FIP.
If there is any pitcher to avoid on this list, it's Edinson Volquez. I took a lot of flack being a vocal Volquez hater this offseason, and while it's only been 51 innings, I really want to say "I told you so" about how bad his control was going to burn him this year. Volquez has a 4.16 xFIP, so a lot of people might be tempted to buy, but even if you tinker with his batted ball distribution a bit, his expected FIP is putrid. A 4.50 FIP would be "average" by standards two or three years ago, but in the new era of the pitcher, it's trade-or-cut material. Ryan Dempster's a name on this list I really like, but, as noted above, the ship has probably sailed on him by now. Same goes with Erik Bedard, who has been lights out over his past five or so turns. And what about Bartolo Colon? Is he the real deal after injecting cheeseburgers from his belly into his elbow? No matter which you choose, all the metrics seem to check out (3.77 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3.61 FIP, 2.90 xFIP, 3.86 eFIP, 1.20 WHIP, 1.28 xWHIP), but something does not smell right. A 5.9 percent SwStr% ties for his second-lowest mark since 2002 and is well below his post-2002 average of 7.6 percent, but his strikeout rate (23.6 percent) is a career second-best at age 38? I'd use the "it checks out" line to hedge your risk.
What's up with Jeff Karstens? He's been good on the surface (3.57 ERA, 1.28), but regular FIP says look out (4.70). Karsten's improved strikeout rate (18.9 percent this season, 12.2 percent career) makes sense if you look at batters' swing-and-miss rate against him (9.0 percent this year, 7.1 percent career, 8.4 percent major league average), but what is causing it? It's not his velocity (88.4 MPH fastball this year, 88.5 career) or pitch usage (none of his four usage rates varies by more than a few percent points this season). His change-up has been wicked awesome, but both his fastball and slider (thrown almost a combined three-fourths of the time) have fared poorly both this year and for his career. Tread at your own caution.
Chris Capuano, on the other hand, has been secretly good for the Mets, even if the results do not say so. His ERA (4.94) and WHIP (1.45) have been atrocious, but his peripherals (3.86 eFIP, 1.28 xWHIP, 7.74 K/9, 19.4 percent K%) say this waiver wire fodder (2 percent Yahoo ownership) might be worth a careful look.
And the guys whose FIPs are not telling the whole story. Keep in mind that in the second "year of the pitcher," ERAs are not what they used to seem.
My mother always told me to never trust Brandon Morrow. As I noted last week, you're better off selling him at cost to another saber-friendly owner and investing the funds elsewhere. Jordan Zimmerman is much better than he's been or his presence here indicates, and I would sit tight with him. Is Justin Masterson finally putting it all together as a post-hype sleeper? 3.61 xFIP versus lefties (165 batters) and 3.26 xFIP versus righties (110 batters). Sorry Orioles fans clinging to old Bedard jerseys; Chris Tillman is not the stud or the sleeper we thought he was. Ditto on Brad Bergesen, who I once had a fantasy man crush on several years back. After 10 years, you should not be fooled by Jason Marquis. He tends to start things off well with new teams, but it always ends badly. Has Doug Fister been ol' reliable for you thus far? Don't expect it to persist, as he's more likely to take his hand and slap your fantasy team with it in the future. I've shaken off my preseason (Phil) Coke addiction, and what of former top Twins draftee Phil Humber? 2.85 ERA, 3.77 FIP looks nice for something you plucked off the waiver wire for a stream that never seemed to end in a drop, but lackluster strikeouts plus league-average WHIP plus poor ERA prospects equal trade toss in to get a better deal done. Finally, Livan Hernandez is not even worth mentioning.
Next time out (this upcoming Monday), we'll look at EXTRA, actual ERA and actual tRA to date. Until then, as always, leave your love/hate in the comments below.
Sabermetricians have shown that once the ball is out of the hands of the pitcher, the pitcher has very little control over the outcome of the ball put into play.
DIPS theory tells us that a pitcher controls a few things about the outcome of an at-bat, each to a variable degree. The pitcher has the most control over the elements of the game that only involve himself, and omit others. A pitcher is in almost absolute control over the general location of his pitch. There are some marginal or unpredictable variants such as temperature, weather, wind speed and wind direction that factor into pitch location, but a pitcher who does not hit his spots can generally only blame himself. He either gripped the ball incorrectly, released it too late, did not properly adjust his throw for weather condition, "has the jitters," just can't pitch, etc. A pitcher likewise almost completely (though less completely than location) controls intentional walks, which essentially eliminate the batter from the equation of the outcome. Though players like Miguel Cabrera and Jeff Francouer come to mind as the rare player who interferes with the pitcher's attempt to intentionally walk them, it is generally true that if a pitcher wants to intentionally walk a batter, it will happen.
Once the batter comes into the equation, the pitcher loses his control over the outcome. Once the pitch is released from his hands, he has done all he can do. It is then in the batter's hand as to whether contact is made, where on the ball the contact is made, how hard the ball is hit, and whether or not it is pulled, amongst various other variables. In this regard, a pitcher has some, but not total, control over unintentional walks and strikeouts. The pitcher tries to fool the batter, but the batter may or may not buy the bait. The fielders are irrelevant before the ball is put into play, so the outcome is largely dominated by an exercise in game theory between the batter and pitcher.
A pitcher also controls the tendency of the ball to be on the ground or in the air. As noted above, once the ball is released from the pitcher's hand, what happens to it is ultimately a question of what the batter does. A pitcher can throw the ball with heavy sink to induce ground balls, or throw it high in the zone to induce a popup, but the hitter, not the pitcher, ultimately controls the angle of trajectory, the force of contact, and the direction of the ball off the bat. Once contact is made, the ball is either put in play, in which case the pitcher's fielders have the ultimate control over what happens next, or the ball is foul, in which case the batter-pitcher game repeats, or the ball is a home run, over which the pitcher has some, but not ultimate, control. (This is the theory behind xFIP and using a normalized home run rate in lieu of the pitcher's actual home run rate as traditionally used in FIP.)
BABIP research by ball in play type out indicates that league fielding per batted ball type tends to be relatively stable. It tends to fluctuate annually, but only slightly and negligibly. For example, the expected hits rate on ground balls in play between 2004 and 2008 was .239. From 2008 to 2010, it was .236. So far this year, it is .238. The same is true for infield fly balls, line drives and outfield fly balls (though the latter two tend to fluctuate more, which is probably the result of scorer bias*). It is also true that line drive rate seems to remain relatively stable and out of pitcher control as well in the long run. Only a handful of pitchers have cumulative line drive rates that are not between 18 and 20 percent over the past five years, and most of those pitchers tend to be extreme batted-ball players. Even in the outlier, however, no pitcher has a line drive rate below 16 percent or above 22 percent. Noting this, you can probably say that Mat Latos' 9.2 percent line drive rate and Travis Woods' 24.5 percent line drive rate on the season are either the result of bad luck or funky scoring and that we should expect such to persist in the future.
*Note: scorer bias might make one skeptical of batted ball-based evaluation/prediction tools, but it is important to note that I am not, nor are most, preaching a black-and-white bible of truth with sabermetrics and sabermetric tools, but rather commenting upon the tendency of outcome or a rough baseline from which to make better, more informed decisions. Tools like tRA and the xWHIP Calculator are hardly perfect, but they lead to more informed analysis and decision-making.
From this research, I stood on the shoulders of men much smarter than myself and created the Expected WHIP (xWHIP) Calculator. (You can download the beta version for xWHIP3 by clicking here.) In case you are not familiar with how the xWHIP Calculator works, let me give you the quick rundown of how to use it and what it does. Refer to the picture of the beta of version 3.0 below (note: the 2008-2010 environment is loaded in the hits/outs created field; I do not have the runs created data for 2008-2010 to provide at this time).
The first and only manual step is data entry. Begin by entering data into the gray cells by using the player's page on Fangraphs. The xWHIP Calculator is calibrated to Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) batted ball data, and, to avoid unnecessary scorer bias through consistency, you need to enter BIS data, which is what is available on Fangraphs. You can also change the pink cells of "specialized data points," but will likely require information that is not publicly available to properly modify such. Hence, you should probably leave them untouched (well, unless you want to use a player's career home run per outfield flyball rate in lieu of the league average mark*).
*If you modify the HR/OFFB% cell, do not change the park factor cell, or you risk double counting.
Once you've entered the data, the rest is all automatic, courtesy of my tireless hours of work in creating the xWHIP Calculator. My xWHIP formula first adds up all the batted ball data, and then normalizes it based on a regressed line drive rate. I use 19 percent, or about the league average. Then, with my new "normalized" batted ball distribution, I multiply each ball in play form by its expected hits rate. This gives you expected hits. The calculator also also calculate expected home runs based on the normalized data.
Once a normalized batted ball distribution is created, the xWHIP Calculator also calculates an expected innings total (xIP). I calculate expected innings because actual innings pitched, like hits, is a function not only of player skill, but fielder interference/assistance and other statistical noise. A great or poor play is the difference between an extra batter faced and the end of the inning*. Expected innings is calculated by multiplying events by expected outs created by event. For example, a ground ball put in to play tends to result in 0.808 outs per occurrence. Caught stealing and pick off rates are something that varies by catcher and pitcher, but calculating such to be effectively utilized is something that I am not properly equipped to do. Hence, I use a league-average rate of .02 outs created per base runner to account for expected pickoffs and players who might get caught stealing. This formula gives me expected outs, which I then divide by three.
*This is why K% is more stable, indicative and, as a predictive/evaluational tool, valuable than K/9.
Using expected hits, expected home runs, and expected innings, as well as the other calculated data, we get a few valuable output points from the xWHIP Calculator. The primary purpose of the calculator and its calculations is to give a pitcher's expected WHIP. xWHIP may not be important from a purely sabermetrics standpoint, but fantasy baseball players find it quite useful. xWHIP is calculated in three ways. First, xWHIP1 calculates a pitcher's expected WHIP using actual innings pitched. Second, xWHIP2 calculates a pitcher's expected WHIP using expected innings (xIP). Finally, quick xWHIP, or qxWHIP, calculates a player's expected WHIP based purely on a player's actual innings pitched, strikeout total, and WHIP. qxWHIP was created by Alex Hambrick, and the theory behind it is explained here.
The xWHIP Calculator also has a quick-and-dirty defensive adjustment for pitchers that converts a team's defensive results into an expected "hits saved" compared to the hypothetical "league-average defense" per inning. This defensive adjustment has severe limitations (defense is hardly uniform infield-to-outfield, or player-to-player), and is optional, but it gives some sense of how a team's overall defense can be roughly expected to affect a player's "true talent" line.
In addition to xWHIP, however, the new versions of my xWHIP Calculator also tabulate two mainstream ERA estimators using normalized data. The first ERA estimator is eFIP, which is based on xFIP. xFIP is traditionally calculated by subtracting two times a pitcher's strikeout total by the sum of three times a pitcher's walk total plus 13 times .105 times that player's flyball total, all divided by innings pitched. The resulting figure is then added to some constant, usually 3.2, to scale xFIP to look like ERA. xFIP tends to be my ERA estimator of choice, but I have several problems with the popular version of the formula. First, it uses a pitcher's flyball total to calculate expected home runs. Flyball total is a composite of outfield fly balls and infield fly balls. As popups can never be home runs, it is silly to include them. In addition, home-run-per-outfield-fly-ball rates tend to be more stable over the long term than home-run-per-fly-ball rates.
Second, and perhaps this is offset by including popups in the traditional expected home run formula, xFIP does not account for line-drive home runs. Line-drive home runs are few and far between, but they do occur a few times per 100 hits that are scored as line drives.
Third, xFIP is tabulated irrespective of expected flyball or outfield flyball rate. Pitchers, as noted above, do not seem to have much control over line-drive rate. If a pitcher, particularly in smaller samples (which give you less valuable data outcomes), has an atypically low or high line-drive rate, then a pitcher's xFIP is skewed accordingly. The difference is, at most, a couple of home runs, but, like my infield flyball grudge with traditional xFIP, why use it if you don't have to?
Fourth, xFIP does not account for park factors. Each of the 30 major league parks has different park dimensions that uniquely affect home run totals. Petco and Busch Stadium affect pitcher's home runs allowed totals radically different than do the parks of Chicago. Players only play about 50 percent of their games at home, so you need to modify park factors accordingly, but the difference in expected ERA between Busch Stadium and Coors Field is substantial enough that it requires accounting, though that causes the xFIP formula to further sacrifice simplicity.
xFIP is a nice formula because it is simple and easy to calculate. Normally, accounting for my gripes would sacrifice much of xFIP's simplicity appeal. However, given all the calculations the xWHIP Calculator makes, calculating a modified expected FIP to correct for my gripes is simple. I term this modified xFIP formula "eFIP."
In addition to eFIP, the newest versions of the xWHIP Calculator will also calculated batted ball normalized versions of tRA or tERA, which I have termed "EXTRA." EXTRA is calculated the exact same way as tRA, but it uses the pitcher's normalized, not actual, batted ball data as the inputs.
Now that you know the parameters, let's look at some of the major league's leaders and losers in xWHIP, eFIP, and EXTRA using 2011's runs environment and statistics through May 27, 2011. You can download the data file by clicking here.
Before reviewing the data, take note of the following. First, the following calculations use major league outs/runs/hits numbers, not league-specific numbers, so American League pitchers will tend to fare worse than these numbers, while National League hitters will tend to perform better. Second, changes in a player's strikeout (xWHIP2) or walk rate (xWHIP1, xWHIP2) would have an appreciable effect on a pitcher's expected WHIP. Third, while only starting pitchers (pitchers with at least one game started) are included in my data file, with the exception of Zack Greinke, only starting pitchers with 30 or more expected innings are included in my leaderboard (136 starting pitchers qualify). Fourth, I am calculating WHIP with unintentional walks (BB-IBB+HBP, or uBB); uBB better evaluates a pitcher's control and expected baserunners. Finally, the league average xWHIP and eFIP are 1.32 and 4.00, respectively. The actual current major league average WHIP and FIP are 1.30 and 3.95, respectively.
First, the WHIP under-performers to date (calculated using "actual WHIP" (see above) minus the mean of a pitcher's xWHIP1 and xWHIP2):
Name xIP aWHIP xWHIP dWHIP
Davies, Kyle 44.54 1.90 1.57 0.34
Lackey, John 42.57 1.88 1.63 0.25
Reyes, Jo-Jo 55.06 1.66 1.42 0.24
Arroyo, Bronson 67.25 1.52 1.30 0.21
Greinke, Zack 29.99 1.14 0.93 0.21
Capuano, Chris 57.87 1.48 1.28 0.20
Dempster, Ryan 66.79 1.56 1.36 0.19
Garza, Matt 59.54 1.35 1.16 0.19
Holland, Derek 61.03 1.58 1.39 0.18
Jackson, Edwin 70.82 1.50 1.33 0.17
Tillman, Chris 50.41 1.67 1.50 0.17
Scherzer, Max 67.28 1.48 1.32 0.17
Carpenter, Chris 73.60 1.43 1.28 0.15
Lee, Cliff 78.18 1.25 1.10 0.15
Myers, Brett 69.78 1.51 1.39 0.13
McDonald, James 54.30 1.52 1.40 0.12
Norris, Bud 68.42 1.30 1.18 0.11
Dickey, R.A. 61.18 1.60 1.49 0.11
Francis, Jeff 69.59 1.40 1.30 0.10
Wood, Travis 62.79 1.41 1.31 0.10
Hudson, Dan 72.45 1.33 1.23 0.10
Rodriguez, Wandy 67.84 1.32 1.22 0.10
Lilly, Ted 63.55 1.34 1.25 0.09
Duensing, Brian 54.92 1.44 1.36 0.09
Morrow, Brandon 40.47 1.38 1.30 0.08
Baker, Scott 61.52 1.30 1.22 0.07
Stauffer, Tim 65.87 1.32 1.25 0.07
Niese, Jon 62.10 1.44 1.38 0.06
Volstad, Chris 52.02 1.44 1.38 0.06
Danks, John 66.59 1.40 1.34 0.06
Harang, Aaron 61.74 1.32 1.26 0.06
Narveson, Chris 57.44 1.35 1.29 0.06
Much of this leaderboard is populated with under-inspiring pitchers who, while unlikely, have pitched pretty poorly this year and are hardly worth a spot on your bench. Case in point: the injured John Lackey and "immutable" Kyle Davies. A few names do stand out, however. I think the ship sailed on Ryan Dempster (whose numbers are infinitely better if you omit his 0.1 inning pitched disaster at Arizona) after his 11-strikeout performance on May 13, but maybe some owner has not been paying close enough attention this past month (e.g., people in college). We all know Cliff Lee and Matt Garza have had their share of bad luck this year, but what about Chris Carpenter and Zack Greinke? Greinke's performance to date puts him in company with the top three guys in the league, but his 5.79 ERA has been ugly. If any owner is having second thoughts about the Royals ex-Ace, or is willing to deal him at market value, I'd strongly considering biting. And what about Bud Norris? I wrote about him last week, but his ownership rate is still below 50 percent (it actually went down a notch). I think a lot of people are overlooking just how good Norris has been this year. Jeff Francis and Travis Wood are a pair of pitchers who could help you in other categories without hurting your future WHIP.
Next, the WHIP over-performers to date (calculated using "actual WHIP" (see above) minus the mean of a pitcher's xWHIP1 and xWHIP2):
Name xIP aWHIP xWHIP dWHIP
Tomlin, Josh 60.26 0.93 1.24 -0.32
Lohse, Kyle 67.89 0.91 1.22 -0.30
Humber, Philip 56.67 0.98 1.28 -0.30
Britton, Zachary 59.14 1.12 1.38 -0.26
Ogando, Alexi 54.57 0.94 1.18 -0.25
Johnson, Josh 56.03 0.96 1.19 -0.23
Hudson, Tim 62.97 1.14 1.35 -0.22
Morton, Charlie 58.11 1.31 1.52 -0.21
Harrison, Matt 55.43 1.25 1.46 -0.20
Chacin, Jhoulys 64.78 1.10 1.30 -0.20
Maholm, Paul 66.89 1.16 1.36 -0.20
Beckett, Josh 58.97 0.98 1.18 -0.19
Penny, Brad 59.28 1.32 1.51 -0.19
Hochevar, Luke 70.45 1.23 1.41 -0.18
Liriano, Francisco 46.26 1.48 1.66 -0.18
Verlander, Justin 75.59 0.96 1.14 -0.17
Jurrjens, Jair 54.41 1.02 1.19 -0.17
McClellan, Kyle 61.16 1.21 1.38 -0.17
Haren, Dan 77.03 0.89 1.06 -0.16
Kennedy, Ian 71.84 1.10 1.24 -0.14
Coke, Phil 49.98 1.27 1.41 -0.14
Moseley, Dustin 57.56 1.23 1.37 -0.14
Burnett, A.J. 65.88 1.29 1.42 -0.14
Hanson, Tommy 62.63 1.09 1.22 -0.13
Carmona, Fausto 70.32 1.22 1.34 -0.13
Correia, Kevin 68.79 1.19 1.31 -0.12
Billingsley, Chad 67.93 1.26 1.37 -0.12
Cahill, Trevor 69.18 1.23 1.35 -0.11
Pineda, Michael 61.86 0.99 1.11 -0.11
Lincecum, Tim 74.38 1.05 1.16 -0.11
Hellickson, Jeremy 55.45 1.24 1.35 -0.11
Weaver, Jered 82.98 0.96 1.06 -0.10
Here we find a lot of players with BABIP-deflated ERAs who are on the Atkins diet when it comes to strikeouts: Kyle Lohse and Zach Britton's combined strikeouts per nine rate (9.81) is equal to that of Bud Norris. Most of these "trailers" tend to be groundball pitchers because groundballs, while having a lower expected runs outcome per event, have a higher hits-resulting rate. A year of xWHIP has taught me that ERA and WHIP tend to be inversely related to groundball and flyball rates. Alexei Ogando throws hard, but can you really trust a flyball pitcher (64.5 percent AO%) in Texas (inflates home runs by 10 percent)? Ogando's SwStr% (8.9 percent) indicates he is capable of slightly better than league-average strikeout totals. As you might notice not all players on this board are "bad" or have "bad" expected WHIPs (e.g., Josh Beckett). This is only a tool to help figuring out who has been under/over-performing, and an under-performer may very well be worth keeping.
Then we have the pitchers who are secretly better than their listed FIP.
Name xIP aFIP EXFIP dFIP
Karstens, Jeff 45.60 4.92 3.57 1.35
Volquez, Edinson 51.36 5.77 4.50 1.27
Arroyo, Bronson 67.25 5.48 4.33 1.15
Gorzelanny, Tom 52.31 5.28 4.14 1.14
Hochevar, Luke 70.45 5.46 4.35 1.11
Dempster, Ryan 66.79 4.80 3.78 1.03
Myers, Brett 69.78 5.44 4.49 0.95
Greinke, Zack 29.99 3.06 2.18 0.88
McDonald, James 54.30 5.11 4.29 0.82
Lester, Jon 68.85 4.25 3.48 0.77
Capuano, Chris 57.87 4.61 3.86 0.75
Bedard, Erik 51.52 4.32 3.68 0.65
O'Sullivan, Sean 50.48 6.26 5.61 0.64
Lewis, Colby 64.90 5.26 4.62 0.64
Latos, Mat 53.83 4.35 3.80 0.55
Buchholz, Clay 58.87 4.77 4.25 0.52
Romero, Ricky 63.02 3.98 3.48 0.50
Baker, Scott 61.52 4.19 3.70 0.49
Pelfrey, Mike 64.67 5.07 4.59 0.48
Carmona, Fausto 70.32 4.29 3.82 0.47
Colon, Bartolo 57.80 3.79 3.32 0.47
Blackburn, Nick 62.39 4.65 4.19 0.47
Norris, Bud 68.42 3.75 3.30 0.45
Chen, Bruce 41.62 5.12 4.68 0.45
Arrieta, Jake 60.54 4.66 4.23 0.43
Chacin, Jhoulys 64.78 3.96 3.56 0.40
Scherzer, Max 67.28 4.36 3.98 0.39
Lilly, Ted 63.55 4.67 4.28 0.39
Dickey, R.A. 61.18 4.75 4.37 0.38
Gallardo, Yovani 68.64 4.27 3.91 0.36
Litsch, Jesse 46.74 4.69 4.35 0.34
Kuroda, Hiroki 70.70 4.15 3.81 0.34
Rodriguez, Wandy 67.84 4.05 3.71 0.33
Liriano, Francis 46.26 5.44 5.11 0.33
Volstad, Chris 52.02 4.24 3.91 0.33
If there is any pitcher to avoid on this list, it's Edinson Volquez. I took a lot of flack being a vocal Volquez hater this offseason, and while it's only been 51 innings, I really want to say "I told you so" about how bad his control was going to burn him this year. Volquez has a 4.16 xFIP, so a lot of people might be tempted to buy, but even if you tinker with his batted ball distribution a bit, his expected FIP is putrid. A 4.50 FIP would be "average" by standards two or three years ago, but in the new era of the pitcher, it's trade-or-cut material. Ryan Dempster's a name on this list I really like, but, as noted above, the ship has probably sailed on him by now. Same goes with Erik Bedard, who has been lights out over his past five or so turns. And what about Bartolo Colon? Is he the real deal after injecting cheeseburgers from his belly into his elbow? No matter which you choose, all the metrics seem to check out (3.77 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3.61 FIP, 2.90 xFIP, 3.86 eFIP, 1.20 WHIP, 1.28 xWHIP), but something does not smell right. A 5.9 percent SwStr% ties for his second-lowest mark since 2002 and is well below his post-2002 average of 7.6 percent, but his strikeout rate (23.6 percent) is a career second-best at age 38? I'd use the "it checks out" line to hedge your risk.
What's up with Jeff Karstens? He's been good on the surface (3.57 ERA, 1.28), but regular FIP says look out (4.70). Karsten's improved strikeout rate (18.9 percent this season, 12.2 percent career) makes sense if you look at batters' swing-and-miss rate against him (9.0 percent this year, 7.1 percent career, 8.4 percent major league average), but what is causing it? It's not his velocity (88.4 MPH fastball this year, 88.5 career) or pitch usage (none of his four usage rates varies by more than a few percent points this season). His change-up has been wicked awesome, but both his fastball and slider (thrown almost a combined three-fourths of the time) have fared poorly both this year and for his career. Tread at your own caution.
Chris Capuano, on the other hand, has been secretly good for the Mets, even if the results do not say so. His ERA (4.94) and WHIP (1.45) have been atrocious, but his peripherals (3.86 eFIP, 1.28 xWHIP, 7.74 K/9, 19.4 percent K%) say this waiver wire fodder (2 percent Yahoo ownership) might be worth a careful look.
And the guys whose FIPs are not telling the whole story. Keep in mind that in the second "year of the pitcher," ERAs are not what they used to seem.
Name xIP aFIP EXFIP dFIP
Bergesen, Brad 51.38 3.90 5.15 -1.26
Morrow, Brandon 40.47 2.53 3.63 -1.09
Tillman, Chris 50.41 3.85 4.89 -1.04
McCarthy, Brando 62.85 2.67 3.60 -0.93
Jurrjens, Jair 54.41 2.97 3.85 -0.88
Coke, Phil 49.98 3.83 4.65 -0.81
Hudson, Dan 72.45 2.88 3.66 -0.78
Buehrle, Mark 72.50 3.82 4.59 -0.76
Zimmermann, Jord 60.00 2.98 3.73 -0.75
Sabathia, CC 77.83 2.99 3.70 -0.71
Fister, Doug 63.85 3.57 4.27 -0.70
Garza, Matt 59.54 2.01 2.71 -0.69
Lohse, Kyle 67.89 3.23 3.91 -0.68
Bumgarner, Madis 57.50 3.16 3.84 -0.67
Zambrano, Carlos 66.71 3.94 4.57 -0.62
Humber, Philip 56.67 3.77 4.35 -0.59
Hernandez, Livan 68.75 3.94 4.47 -0.53
Halladay, Roy 86.09 1.93 2.46 -0.53
Billingsley, Cha 67.93 3.29 3.82 -0.53
Johnson, Josh 56.03 2.72 3.24 -0.52
Masterson, Justi 64.33 3.23 3.72 -0.49
Marquis, Jason 63.53 3.80 4.27 -0.47
Weaver, Jered 82.98 2.74 3.21 -0.46
Oswalt, Roy 44.97 3.29 3.73 -0.44
Kennedy, Ian 71.84 3.41 3.84 -0.42
Beckett, Josh 58.97 3.03 3.45 -0.42
Pineda, Michael 61.86 2.84 3.25 -0.42
Morton, Charlie 58.11 3.91 4.29 -0.38
Reyes, Jo-Jo 55.06 4.25 4.61 -0.36
Maholm, Paul 66.89 3.60 3.96 -0.36
Chatwood, Tyler 53.24 5.09 5.45 -0.36
Nova, Ivan 54.62 4.61 4.96 -0.36
My mother always told me to never trust Brandon Morrow. As I noted last week, you're better off selling him at cost to another saber-friendly owner and investing the funds elsewhere. Jordan Zimmerman is much better than he's been or his presence here indicates, and I would sit tight with him. Is Justin Masterson finally putting it all together as a post-hype sleeper? 3.61 xFIP versus lefties (165 batters) and 3.26 xFIP versus righties (110 batters). Sorry Orioles fans clinging to old Bedard jerseys; Chris Tillman is not the stud or the sleeper we thought he was. Ditto on Brad Bergesen, who I once had a fantasy man crush on several years back. After 10 years, you should not be fooled by Jason Marquis. He tends to start things off well with new teams, but it always ends badly. Has Doug Fister been ol' reliable for you thus far? Don't expect it to persist, as he's more likely to take his hand and slap your fantasy team with it in the future. I've shaken off my preseason (Phil) Coke addiction, and what of former top Twins draftee Phil Humber? 2.85 ERA, 3.77 FIP looks nice for something you plucked off the waiver wire for a stream that never seemed to end in a drop, but lackluster strikeouts plus league-average WHIP plus poor ERA prospects equal trade toss in to get a better deal done. Finally, Livan Hernandez is not even worth mentioning.
Next time out (this upcoming Monday), we'll look at EXTRA, actual ERA and actual tRA to date. Until then, as always, leave your love/hate in the comments below.
The Search for the Next Cubs GM
I started writing this article on the Cubs search for their next GM, but wasn’t able to finish it before it was announced that the Cubs have hired their new President of baseball Operations in Theo Epstein and General manager in Jed Hoyer. I decided to finish and post this article as planned and a future article will come on my opinion solely on the hire of the new Cubs front office with Epstein heading up baseball operations and the new direction for the organization. So please keep in mind that this article was written evaluating the Cubs front office and their options before they hired their new GM.
The Chicago Cubs will be looking for a new manager this off season. I am sure they have actually started their search since the day they announced they have let former General Manager Jim Hendry go. The Cubs have their handful finding the right guy to take over the reins for this job. The Cubs do not have anyone with baseball experience within their organization calling the shots now. Thus, the new General Manager will need to be very talented and insightful to clean up the mess he has inherited and build up the organization from the bottom up. The Cubs aren’t in the worse situation in the league, like some of the teams such as Houston, Seattle, to name a few. They have some prospects and some money off the books, but the new GM needs to build a plan for the organization, put an emphasize on the minor league system, stress the fundamentals from the minors league system to the Major league level, and find a Manager who knows how to coach. I figured we should look at some of the general manager candidates who may be mentioned and then those who probably won’t be considered, but should be who could possibly handle the job as General manager of the Chicago Cubs to end the drought and clean up the mess that keeps getting deeper from Ed Lynch to Andy MacPhail, to Jim Hendry.
The Cubs reached out to Hall of famer Pat Gillick recently and asked him to join the Cubs organization in some capacity such as a special assistant to the owner reporting to Tom Rickets. After Pat Gillick stepped down after the rigous duties of being an GM of the Phillies he became an advisor for them. The same type of role the Cubs have offered him. So why would he want to leave a team that when he took over as GM several years he built the team up to what it is today? They also have a great thing going in Philliadpha being a contender every year with the stellar rotation. If he left the good situation he is now to come to Chicago he would want a position of power to be able to steer this sinking ship in the right direction and get it pointed up instead of going further down. That is why he supposedly told the cubs he would only come as President. That way he would have control over the Cubs to set the direction for the organization from top to bottom. It is also rumored he doesn’t want to take orders from current Cubs president Crake Kennedy, even though he is a business guy. Because Kennedy is president he tries to get involved is all aspects of the club, even though his expertise is only business. Thus, having Kennedy as President has scared a Hall of famer like Gillick away. I would have liked them to bring Gillick in as President with him setting the tone for the organization and guiding the GM he picks. That way he can mentor someone who has some old school smarts like himself, but also may be a little more analytical and advanced stat savvy. Gillick coming to the Cubs is done so lets move on to possibly alternatives.
My first choice for GM would be Andrew Friedman whom I consider to be the best GM in baseball. He has one year left on his contract with the Rays, where he has a limited budget, and in a tough division with the Red Sox and Yankees. So I wouldn’t be surprised if he is interested in the Chicago Cubs job. He is very analytical, knows how to analyze numbers coming from wall street, and has experience running a baseball organization.
My second choice is Theo Epstein whom became the youngest GM at 28 for Boston. In 9 years he has won them 2 championships with a big payroll and rebuilt their farm system. He drafted superstars in Dustin Pedoria, Jacoby Ellsbury, Johnanton Pappelbon, and traded for many others to help them win their championship like Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett. He knows how to draft well and spend money wisely of a big market club, even though some may question that with the signings of John Lackey, Carl Crawford, and J.D. Drew. The only one of those that was really bad at the time and will be regretted is John Lackey. Oh, lets not forget about Dice-K.
Brian Chashman is rumored to be a candidate because his contract is up with the Yankees. I am not a big fan of Cashman though because I don’t know what he has done. He has an endless budget and has hired some good scouting directors to drafts some good talent to keep or use as trade bait. The Yankees may always be good and competeitve, but I don’t think Cashman could have the same success in Chicago and I think he would fail like MacPhail and Jim Hendry did.
Billy Beane has also been mentioned, but like I don’t think he is qualified for the difficulties of this job to turn things around. The Oakland Athletics’ haven’t been in the post season in years because other teams have adaptive to his style and he hasn’t adaptive to the game. He needs to balanced in his approach to the game to gain his advantage to put a winner on the field and he isn’t. That is why he isn’t our guy to run the Cubs.
The Cubs need someone who can turn around an entire organization from top to bottom and that is why Theo Epstein was a great choice. The Cubs have a few talented players thanks to Tim Wilken and isn’t in terrible shape like some teams, but needed someone like Epstein who is one on the few executives currently active in the game in the game that I like who is smart enough to turn around an organization in shambles!
The Chicago Cubs will be looking for a new manager this off season. I am sure they have actually started their search since the day they announced they have let former General Manager Jim Hendry go. The Cubs have their handful finding the right guy to take over the reins for this job. The Cubs do not have anyone with baseball experience within their organization calling the shots now. Thus, the new General Manager will need to be very talented and insightful to clean up the mess he has inherited and build up the organization from the bottom up. The Cubs aren’t in the worse situation in the league, like some of the teams such as Houston, Seattle, to name a few. They have some prospects and some money off the books, but the new GM needs to build a plan for the organization, put an emphasize on the minor league system, stress the fundamentals from the minors league system to the Major league level, and find a Manager who knows how to coach. I figured we should look at some of the general manager candidates who may be mentioned and then those who probably won’t be considered, but should be who could possibly handle the job as General manager of the Chicago Cubs to end the drought and clean up the mess that keeps getting deeper from Ed Lynch to Andy MacPhail, to Jim Hendry.
The Cubs reached out to Hall of famer Pat Gillick recently and asked him to join the Cubs organization in some capacity such as a special assistant to the owner reporting to Tom Rickets. After Pat Gillick stepped down after the rigous duties of being an GM of the Phillies he became an advisor for them. The same type of role the Cubs have offered him. So why would he want to leave a team that when he took over as GM several years he built the team up to what it is today? They also have a great thing going in Philliadpha being a contender every year with the stellar rotation. If he left the good situation he is now to come to Chicago he would want a position of power to be able to steer this sinking ship in the right direction and get it pointed up instead of going further down. That is why he supposedly told the cubs he would only come as President. That way he would have control over the Cubs to set the direction for the organization from top to bottom. It is also rumored he doesn’t want to take orders from current Cubs president Crake Kennedy, even though he is a business guy. Because Kennedy is president he tries to get involved is all aspects of the club, even though his expertise is only business. Thus, having Kennedy as President has scared a Hall of famer like Gillick away. I would have liked them to bring Gillick in as President with him setting the tone for the organization and guiding the GM he picks. That way he can mentor someone who has some old school smarts like himself, but also may be a little more analytical and advanced stat savvy. Gillick coming to the Cubs is done so lets move on to possibly alternatives.
My first choice for GM would be Andrew Friedman whom I consider to be the best GM in baseball. He has one year left on his contract with the Rays, where he has a limited budget, and in a tough division with the Red Sox and Yankees. So I wouldn’t be surprised if he is interested in the Chicago Cubs job. He is very analytical, knows how to analyze numbers coming from wall street, and has experience running a baseball organization.
My second choice is Theo Epstein whom became the youngest GM at 28 for Boston. In 9 years he has won them 2 championships with a big payroll and rebuilt their farm system. He drafted superstars in Dustin Pedoria, Jacoby Ellsbury, Johnanton Pappelbon, and traded for many others to help them win their championship like Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett. He knows how to draft well and spend money wisely of a big market club, even though some may question that with the signings of John Lackey, Carl Crawford, and J.D. Drew. The only one of those that was really bad at the time and will be regretted is John Lackey. Oh, lets not forget about Dice-K.
Brian Chashman is rumored to be a candidate because his contract is up with the Yankees. I am not a big fan of Cashman though because I don’t know what he has done. He has an endless budget and has hired some good scouting directors to drafts some good talent to keep or use as trade bait. The Yankees may always be good and competeitve, but I don’t think Cashman could have the same success in Chicago and I think he would fail like MacPhail and Jim Hendry did.
Billy Beane has also been mentioned, but like I don’t think he is qualified for the difficulties of this job to turn things around. The Oakland Athletics’ haven’t been in the post season in years because other teams have adaptive to his style and he hasn’t adaptive to the game. He needs to balanced in his approach to the game to gain his advantage to put a winner on the field and he isn’t. That is why he isn’t our guy to run the Cubs.
The Cubs need someone who can turn around an entire organization from top to bottom and that is why Theo Epstein was a great choice. The Cubs have a few talented players thanks to Tim Wilken and isn’t in terrible shape like some teams, but needed someone like Epstein who is one on the few executives currently active in the game in the game that I like who is smart enough to turn around an organization in shambles!
David "MVP" Eckstein's Drafting Strategy for Pitchers
My drafting strategy for pitching was about value retention. Whenever you draft high value pitchers, you are taking on a bunch of risk by forgoing valuable multi-category hitters to take someone from a deep position that features much volatility. Undrafted guys like Cliff Lee and Ryan Dempster often outperform big name guys like Carlos Zambrano each season, but they usually don't repeat -- at least not at the same level. Guys like Lincecum have great seasons, but then become overrated, overvalued and often placed in questionable positions of health (consult PAP!).
So my strategy for drafting starting pitchers was firmly placed on the following dynamics:
1) FIP and xFIP
2) D/E and Aggregate Fielding Runs
3) LOB%
4) K/9
5) PAP and the Verducci Effect
I focused on FIP for obvious reasons. I wanted to know whose success was "for real" (ie, Dan Haren) and whose success was the byproduct of luck (ie, Gavin Floyd). As I often advocate everyone do, I checked ERA/FIP splits and tried to avoid guys whose ERAs didn't quite match up with their FIPs. I strongly believe that guys who outperform their FIPs - like Johan Santana - even if they are great, will be incredibly overvalued. Furthermore, I checked FIP to find guys who UNDERPERFORMED their abilities last year. I hunted down guys like Jonathan Sanchez and Javier Vazquez, who posted quality FIPS below 4, but ERAs upwards of 4.5. Guys like Vazquez, who get an "unclutch" label, are perfectly undervalued targets.
Following FIP, I looked at the Defensive Efficiency (a metric that analyzes how efficient teams are at converting balls put into play into outs) and a team's cumulative fielding runs above/below average (broken down by infield, outfield and whole team). The goal here was to find out which teams are very good, average and below average at fielding. By determining this, I could figure out which pitchers could reasonably outperform/underperform their FIPs for 2009. I can confidently state that a guy like James Shields -- a groundball pitcher backed by the game's best defensive infields -- is going to continue to outperform his already quality FIP going forward. At the same time, I question whether or not the Rockie's defense (amongst other factors) provides enough coverage to match Ubaldo Jimenez's quality peripherals to his ERA.
I then looked at player's Left On Base Percentages (LOB%) to see whether or not which pitcher's ERAs were strongly biased due to positive/negative luck. Since non-HR hits are incredibly situational, you have to expect a lot of regression towards the mean in a player's LOB% from year to year. Guys with large FIP/ERA splits like Jonathan Sanchez -- who is on a defensively challenged team, but also posted an unlucky 67.5 LOB% (league average is 72.5%) -- scream value to me. At the same time, Johan Santana's declining peripherals and league leading 82.6 LOB% tells me that not only would I be overpaying for Santana, but that his "return to form" year may have not actually been a return to form.
After FIP, Fielding Runs and LOB%, I looked at guys based on K/9 rates. I figure that if I am going to excel in any category, I want it to be the one pitchers have the most control over. Teams can unexpectedly suck (low Wins total), while Save Opps, WHIP (which is comprised of HITS) and ERA are all situational. Pitchers have absolute control over only exactly three things: strikeouts, walks and home runs. Thus, choosing high K guys is the most logical thing to do. Plus, guys with higher K rates tend to perform closer to their FIPs due to their "ability to get out of jams" without relying on the defense behind them. In terms of pitching K/9 is pretty consistent, which is important to a drafting strategy of value retention (minimizing risk).
Finally, I checked out how abused pitchers were last year to decide whether or not I wanted to take on the risk of injury by drafting them. Young pitchers (under 26) who had huge inning leaps (Cole Hamels increased his workload by 44 innings last year) or heavy workloads (Tim Lincecum lead the league in PAP points) scare me -- especially if they go in the top 6 rounds. As I pointed out in my analysis of John Danks,
As should be evident by my picks of Dan Haren (Dr. Consistent), Javier Vazquez, Josh Beckett, Yovani Gallardo, Erik Bedard, Jonathan Sanchez, Manny Parra and Brandon Morrow should indicate, I stuck pretty closely to my value retention strategy. The only high risk, late round guy I pulled was Morrow -- largely because he's got so much upside and will either be a quality starter or the team's closers.
As you should also already know by now, I hate closers, so it shouldn't surprise you that I picked up Jason Motte, Leo Nunez and Chad Qualls to supplement Jose Valverde -- who is one of the best RPs in baseball and one of the very few closers (the others being Joe Nathan, Kerry Wood, Jonathan Broxton and maybe Heath Bell) I would ever consider drafting "early."
Go know and use my knowledge, dear child.
So my strategy for drafting starting pitchers was firmly placed on the following dynamics:
1) FIP and xFIP
2) D/E and Aggregate Fielding Runs
3) LOB%
4) K/9
5) PAP and the Verducci Effect
I focused on FIP for obvious reasons. I wanted to know whose success was "for real" (ie, Dan Haren) and whose success was the byproduct of luck (ie, Gavin Floyd). As I often advocate everyone do, I checked ERA/FIP splits and tried to avoid guys whose ERAs didn't quite match up with their FIPs. I strongly believe that guys who outperform their FIPs - like Johan Santana - even if they are great, will be incredibly overvalued. Furthermore, I checked FIP to find guys who UNDERPERFORMED their abilities last year. I hunted down guys like Jonathan Sanchez and Javier Vazquez, who posted quality FIPS below 4, but ERAs upwards of 4.5. Guys like Vazquez, who get an "unclutch" label, are perfectly undervalued targets.
Following FIP, I looked at the Defensive Efficiency (a metric that analyzes how efficient teams are at converting balls put into play into outs) and a team's cumulative fielding runs above/below average (broken down by infield, outfield and whole team). The goal here was to find out which teams are very good, average and below average at fielding. By determining this, I could figure out which pitchers could reasonably outperform/underperform their FIPs for 2009. I can confidently state that a guy like James Shields -- a groundball pitcher backed by the game's best defensive infields -- is going to continue to outperform his already quality FIP going forward. At the same time, I question whether or not the Rockie's defense (amongst other factors) provides enough coverage to match Ubaldo Jimenez's quality peripherals to his ERA.
I then looked at player's Left On Base Percentages (LOB%) to see whether or not which pitcher's ERAs were strongly biased due to positive/negative luck. Since non-HR hits are incredibly situational, you have to expect a lot of regression towards the mean in a player's LOB% from year to year. Guys with large FIP/ERA splits like Jonathan Sanchez -- who is on a defensively challenged team, but also posted an unlucky 67.5 LOB% (league average is 72.5%) -- scream value to me. At the same time, Johan Santana's declining peripherals and league leading 82.6 LOB% tells me that not only would I be overpaying for Santana, but that his "return to form" year may have not actually been a return to form.
After FIP, Fielding Runs and LOB%, I looked at guys based on K/9 rates. I figure that if I am going to excel in any category, I want it to be the one pitchers have the most control over. Teams can unexpectedly suck (low Wins total), while Save Opps, WHIP (which is comprised of HITS) and ERA are all situational. Pitchers have absolute control over only exactly three things: strikeouts, walks and home runs. Thus, choosing high K guys is the most logical thing to do. Plus, guys with higher K rates tend to perform closer to their FIPs due to their "ability to get out of jams" without relying on the defense behind them. In terms of pitching K/9 is pretty consistent, which is important to a drafting strategy of value retention (minimizing risk).
Finally, I checked out how abused pitchers were last year to decide whether or not I wanted to take on the risk of injury by drafting them. Young pitchers (under 26) who had huge inning leaps (Cole Hamels increased his workload by 44 innings last year) or heavy workloads (Tim Lincecum lead the league in PAP points) scare me -- especially if they go in the top 6 rounds. As I pointed out in my analysis of John Danks,
Baseball Prospectus has shown, pitchers are most brittle before the age of 24 and after the age of 35. Tom Verducci observed that pitchers under the age of 25 who increase their seasonal workload by more than 25-30 innings in a single season are the most susceptible to injury the following year.I adhere strongly to that data.
As should be evident by my picks of Dan Haren (Dr. Consistent), Javier Vazquez, Josh Beckett, Yovani Gallardo, Erik Bedard, Jonathan Sanchez, Manny Parra and Brandon Morrow should indicate, I stuck pretty closely to my value retention strategy. The only high risk, late round guy I pulled was Morrow -- largely because he's got so much upside and will either be a quality starter or the team's closers.
As you should also already know by now, I hate closers, so it shouldn't surprise you that I picked up Jason Motte, Leo Nunez and Chad Qualls to supplement Jose Valverde -- who is one of the best RPs in baseball and one of the very few closers (the others being Joe Nathan, Kerry Wood, Jonathan Broxton and maybe Heath Bell) I would ever consider drafting "early."
Go know and use my knowledge, dear child.
