David MVP Eckstein's Top 25 Rest Of Season Starters

01 - Tim Lincecum
02 - Roy Halladay
03 - Felix Hernandez
04 - Dan Haren
05 - Adam Wainwright
06 - Jon Lester
07 - Justin Verlander
08 - Josh Johnson
09 - Zack Greinke
10 - Ubaldo Jimenez
11 - Cliff Lee
12 - Chris Carpenter
13 - Stephen Strasburg
14 - CC Sabathia
15 - Tommy Hanson
16 - Roy Oswalt
17 - Matt Cain
18 - Cole Hamels
19 - Yovanni Gallardo
20 - Johan Santana
21 - Ricky Romero
22 - Ryan Dempster
23 - Hiroki Kuroda
24 - John Danks
25 - Jered Weaver

On the cusp (26-40): Ricky Nolasco, Jonathan Sanchez, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Phil Hughes, Francisco Liriano, Shaun Marcum, Clay Buchholz, Matt Garza, David Price, CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, Scott Baker, James Shields, Brett Anderson

Just missed: Josh Beckett

9 comments:

Sexy Rexy said...

Ryan Dempster is awesome and I feel like he gets no love.

It was no secret that I LOVED King Felix in the pre-season, but there's no way in hell he'll be the third best pitcher going forward. I know on paper it looks amazing with his defense and park behind him, but he's not an elite guy. His FIP and xFIP actually suggests that his 3.80 ERA will stay consistent and he's jst walking way too many guys right now. He's good, but not #3 good.

In fact, just replace Felix with Ubaldo. He's way too low at #10

Oswalt's also been amazing and if he gets traded to a team that can actually get him wins- that should move him up at least 8 spots. But if he stays in Houston he's right where he belongs.

David "MVP" Eckstein said...

1) Felix will pick it up just fine. You watch and see. He'll end the season a top 5 guy

2) Ubaldo is not a top 5 pitcher. He's been Wayyy overperforming. Still a very good pitcher, but ranking him #10 overall made me feel like I was putting a little too much stock in him, honestly. There is no way Ubaldo is better than Felix outside of ERA luck. I dont trust the BB/9 over only 60-70 IP samples

Sexy Rexy said...

As much as Ubaldo is overperforming, as much as I loved Felix coming into this season, and even though I traded Ubaldo and still have Felix and want you to be right, I just don't think it will happen.

Of course anyone with a .88 ERA is overperforming, but even if he does regress to "where he should be" it'll still be better than either what "Felix should be" or what Felix will do.

I'll do any board bet on this. King Felix won't end up being a top five pitcher. Ubaldo will end up being a better pitcher on the player rater. Ubaldo will be better than Felix from here on out. Pick one (although the latter will be harder to measure)

I'm being dead serious on this, what about Felix makes you think he'll be #3 going forward besides that's what we thought in pre-season (and outside of where Ubaldo will remain)? His xFIP and FIP tells me that ERA should remain constant, he doesn't have an offense or bullpen to give him wins, his numbers this year look like his career numbers and last year looks like an outlier PLUS he's walking like every other batter (his BB/9 this years looks like his BB/9 from two years ago)

Felix's K/9 and GB% looks like it always does, his HR/FB% is where it should be (11.3%), his WHIP looks like it did from 06-08. Sure, you can look at his "unlucky" .329 BABIP, but I think you have to look at his BABIP the same way you look at CQ's- sometimes it's not luck, that's just what a guy is.

Everything just screams to me that his amazing year last year was not the real Felix. Of course, "normal" King Felix will still be very good, just not elite.

The 'Bright' One said...

Ubaldo is obviously having a Greinke like season this year. There is no reason to believe he will regress. Just 26 yrs old, peripherals improve every year, and DME knows that Ubaldo is immune to the home run. Below .5HR/9 in last 500IP. Throws 96 easy, amazing physical shape, deceptive delivery, sexy rexy was dumb enough to give him to me. I dont see a flaw in his game.

King Felix is basically identical, but he plays in the AL on a terrible team.

The guy that needs to be lower on the list is CC

The 'Bright' One said...

I would put Kershaw and Hughes in the top 25 going forward...and Chapman

David "MVP" Eckstein said...

1) Ubaldo is an extreme groundball pitcher, but his sudden find of plus-control is out of the blue. One year of better than last year control forms no trend which I will put stock in. Sure, Ubaldo might prove me wrong, but I'm not going to take on the high risk involved in his price tag especially given the value of his stock and the opportunity costs of buy low guys like Haren.

2) Chapman has given up 25 BB in 45.2 IP (4.9 BB/9) minor league innings. He's also got a sub-40% GB% (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=547973). He's going to be Jonathan Sanchez at best at this point. Thats the upside. Downside? Daniel Cabrera.

Sexy Rexy said...

I guess even YOU don't think Hamels will be a top 15 SP! He's 39th best SP now and if he's 16th the rest of the way, it's impossible for him to be top 15. Another board bet for Sexy Rexy!

Anonymous said...

Nolasco is listed twice in the top 25.

David "MVP" Eckstein said...

Ah! good call, thank you. I updated it this morning to bump nolasco down, but forgot to delete him from the top 20