xISO By Batted Ball Type

According to data compiled by Dan Fox, the expected slugging percentages (xSLG) for a batted ball type from 2003-2006 look as follow:
  • Popups: ~0.024
  • Groundballs: ~0.262
  • Flyballs: ~0.762
  • Line Drives: ~1.014
Taking this one step further and calculate xISO by batted ball data, here are the xBABIPs from 2004-2008 based on batted ball type, courtesy of ESPN's Tristan Cockroft:
  • Popups: NO DATA, but Tom Tango puts it at approximately .020.
  • Groundballs: 0.239
  • Flyballs: 0.138
  • Line Drives: 0.725
Using these two data sets, here are the xISO per batted ball type:
  • Popups: 0.004
  • Groundballs: 0.023
  • Flyballs: 0.624
  • Line Drives: 0.289
To put these numbers in context, a guy with a .200+ ISO probably has 25 HR power.

Using Fangraphs' batted ball profile data, I have created a spreadsheet (which you can download by clicking here) which ranks guys based on GB%+IFFB%. In essence, it is a list which ranks players from guys who are most likely to post low ISOs this year to guys who are least likely to post a low ISO this year. Guys who lead the majors in GB%+IFFB% (and are thus likely to post low ISOs this season if all remains constant) include Hunter Pence (0.143 ISO so far this season), Lastings Milledge (.071 ISO), Rajai Davis (0.052 ISO), Chris Coghlan (0.009) and Troy Tulowitzky (0.118), strangely enough. Guys not likely to post low ISOs include Alfonso Soriano, Jayson Werth, Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham and Nick Swisher.

QUESTION: Why does Aramis Ramirez, who is hitting 60% of his total batted balls in the air (the highest rate of his career), doing so poorly this season? Perhaps its age. Perhaps its lingering shoulder problems (just ask Geovany Soto). Maybe it's the 25% popup rate on fly balls. Maybe it's the MLB-lowest .179 BABIP...it's a situation worth monitoring. If these stats continue, the BA should remain low, but the ISO, which currently sits at 0.095 (thanks to 1 xBH (a double) since April 17), should rise. Ramirez has the 7th lowest GB%+IFFB% in the majors this season.

CAN YOU GUESS THE PLAYER?: Take a guess which MLB player currently stands alone, thanks to Chris Coghlan's double last night, with a 0.000 ISO (that is to say this person, and only this person, has no extra base hits on the season). Hint: he's top 10 in GB% this season.


The 'Bright' One said...

I'm pretty sure i know the answer to the trivia as i am the one who came up with question

David "MVP" Eckstein said...

Answer: Juan Pierre (and Ryan Garko, I guess)