The Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox, unlike the Yankees, made qualified upgrades to their team during the offseason. After trading out the temperamental Manny Ramirez for Jason Bay in 2008, their team has only got better. While you can easily argue that Manny is one of the top hitters in the game, his defense is substantially subpar. While Manny had a “great defensive year” in 2008, only being 3 runs below average defensively speaking, his career average is something in line with -20 or more runs, or -2 wins. Jason Bay on the other hand, despite being on a defensive ability decline (from being worth positive runs to negative runs in the last few years), isn’t projected to cost his team much more than a run defensively next season (especially at less than spacious Fenway). When you combine this with a strong, but slightly inferior, offensive skill set (Jason Bay is a .900+ OPS guy, compared to Manny’s 1.000 OPS abilities), you do not get much of a loss in overall contribution value in swapping Manny for Bay -- especially when you factor in that you never know which Manny Ramirez is going to play for you day by day.

The Red Sox spent much of the offseason investing in low-risk, high reward acquisitions like John Smoltz, Takashi Saito, Brad Penny and Rocco Baldelli. These players aren’t getting paid a whole lot but have enough upside, when healthy, to make huge contributions to their teams. For an example of this upside, we look at John Smoltz, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past two decades. Smoltz is projected to make his debut with the Red Sox sometime around July. If healthy, this would give the Red Sox a powerful, fresh arm down the final stretch of what is surely to be the most competitive divisional race in all of baseball. Rocco Baldelli, if healthy, would easily be one of the game’s best 4th outfielders. Brad Penny…well, no one really expects much from Brad Penny, whose entire career has been propped up by luck and strong first half starts that mask his late season collapses. Anything he does better than Tim Wakefield will be pure gravy. Then, of course, there is the always dominant ex-closer Saito, a non-tender from the Dodgers this year due to injury concerns. These guys, if healthy, will be very important come September.

Let’s not, however, forget the “those other guys” on the team, the prospects we have yet to see get in on the action full time. Clay Buchholz still has sick stuff and will surely get a chance to prove himself this year, if for no other reason to be traded to the Rangers mid-season for a catcher. There is also uber prospect Michael Bowden looming and dominating in AAA; expect to see him make an extended stint in the big show this year.

Oh yeah, there’s also reining MVP Dustin Pedroia, who, despite being incredibly overrated, is still valuable defensively (and offensively, provided he continues to smack line drives above a 20% clip). There is also the now-healthy (or so Theo Epstein claims) David Ortiz, who is just a fucking monster. Don’t expect the 40+ home run days of yore from him, but 30+ is still very reasonable. If Mike Lowell can’t stay healthy, Kevin Youkilis may have to slide back to third to make room for a guy like Lars Anderson -- the Red Sox’s #1 ranked prospect (who can’t be any worse than Lowell was in his limited plate appearances last year) -- to play first. I’m not a fan of JD Drew (injured, inconstant), but 25 year old Jacoby Ellsbury has show much defensive prowess in center and above average offensive skills at the plate and on the base paths that will only develop further as he enters his prime years.

All in all, you have to say the Red Sox not only have a great line up, but some great depth to protect the team against injury (especially in terms of pitching). I do not think, however, that the Red Sox have upgraded their 2009 team by a large enough margin to match or surpass the Rays offseason additions (and thus, I expect The Red Sox to be at least as “inferior” to the Rays in 2009 as they were in 2008 -- notice that word in quotes). On the other hand, I do think the Sox have increased their team by a better margin than the Bronx Bombers and see them as the team to beat for the AL Wildcard in 2009.

PLAYERS TO DRAFT:
o Jason Bay - The green monster may turn some of his HRs into doubles, but expect big RBI totals from the man who replaced ManRam now that he's out of Pittsburgh; 30 HRs, 110 RBI, 100 R, 900 OPS all possible.
o David Ortiz - Coming off a season plagued with injuries, the question is will Papi be healthy in 2009? If so, he could easily rack up 35 HRs, 110 RBI, 100 Rs and a .285 average at a discounted price.
o Jacoby Ellsbury - In one word, underrated. Ellsbury is 3 category guy who can rack up steals without hurting your team somehow. 30+ SB, .290+ AVG, 100 R, 10 HR all possible.
o Josh Beckett, Jonathan Papelbon - Nothing that is not already known needs to be said about these guys.

OVERRATED GUYS:
o JD Drew - Inconsistent in production and health. Not worth the risk (or headache).
o John Lester- Great PR story (guy battles cancer, comes back to throw a no-no), but most of his 2008 numbers were based on luck. 4.13 career FIP and 78% LOB last year indicate impending regression. 4+ ERA, 88 BB, 160 K, 1.4 WHIP more likely than last year's 3.21/66/152/1.27 line.
o Dice-K - His 2.9 ERA and 128 hits in 168 IP were nice, but 5.05 BB/9 and 4.03 FIP are not. Expect some serious regression from Dice-K as those control issues come back to bite him big time this year. Definately not worth a top 10 pick, even for the Ks.
o Dustin Pedroia - Something about an MVP who can't hit 20 HRs in unsatisfying. While undeniably useful as 5 category 2B last year, his increasing GB/FB ratio and declining BB% are worrisome. With a strong LD% and speed, his high AVG should persist, but don't expect anything above 15 HRs. Considering that all but a few second basemen are second tier, it's not worth wasting a third round pick on a 2B (unless you get Kinlser or Utley at a ridiculous discount) when you can have the negligibly worse Mark DeRosa 12 rounds later.
o Kevin Youkilis - Anyone who reads this blog by now should know how overrated I think The Greek God Of Walks is. For a length explanation of why, you can checkout my comments in this post. Otherwise, let's just leave it at the fact that 2009 was a career fluke for the guy who never before posted more than 18 HRs or a +.170 ISO in a season at ANY level.

GUYS TO KEEP AN EYE ON:
o John Smoltz - When healthy, he's downright filthy. Should make his debut after the All-Star break.