Sexy Rexy's Drafting Strategy

So I have helped you (or like two people who may have actually read and liked my drafting tips) on some basic tips on how how to draft and maintain a good team. If you talked to me in past week or so, you know I have told you some ideas on my thoughts on players but I did not want to divulge too much information because there are some keys guys I wanted and did not want others to really know about them. So here we go,

1) I literally did research on every single projected starter. This allowed me to see which positions had the most depth. To me, 3B, 1B, SP, and OF had the most depth. I thought 2B and especially SS were awesome at the top and while I thought they had little depth but still some quality guys like Kelly Johnson, Rickie Weeks, Christain Guzman, and Ryan Theriot that were available in much later rounds. For me, if I didn't get J-Roll, HanRam, or Jose Reyes in the first round, there was no reason to draft a SS until like the 18th round, which allowed for great flexibility. Despite some quality 2B I could get around the 15th round or so, I still wanted a top tier 2B which I had to get in the top 3 rounds.

2) I took on the Sam Walker/Fantasyland approach of the trifecta pitching. This really isn't hard to do in non-auction leagues but I really wanted some stud pitching at the top of my "rotation". Yes, there is plenty of SP depth, but if I stocked my team with late round SP, my "rotation" would be nothing more than average. Because I was able to get a quality SS and quality OF later in the draft, I was able to get those positions I wanted later while getting above average to great SP in earlier rounds. A big problem I found is that a lot of top tier pitchers were young and abused/ in the WBC so seemingly more prone to injury, guys like: Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Jake Peavy, and Roy Oswalt immediately came off my list. This left the top tier pool mainly consisting of Arizona pitchers. I ended up taking CC Sabathia as my first pick and although he's abused and I didn't like it a whole lot, I feel his past and his age make him a better candidate than most other pitchers.

3) My ideal players are guys with high BA (above .280), can go at least 15/15, and a high OPS. (To me, because R and RBI are not stats based on individual performance- they're based on the team and position in lineup- if a guy has power and can get on base a lot, they're more inclined to get R and RBI). Surprisingly, there were plenty of these guys which were: Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips, David Wright, Hanley Rameriz, Jose Reyes, Ryan Braun, Alfonso Soriano, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran, Hunter Pence, Matt Holliday, Jayson Werth, Elijah Dukes, Nate McLouth, and Matt Kemp. Pretty elite group, no? The problem is that once the 3rd round starts, you'd be hard pressed to find any of these players. But two guys on this list stuck out to me: Jayson Werth and Elijah Dukes. These are two quality guys that go under the radar and thus I can get at lower rounds. So then, all I did was take a closer look between these players to determine which ones I wanted.

4) There still are certain positions that needed to be filled so I filled those positions with specialized players- mainly players with a lot of HR or SB, preferably with a BA and OPS if possible. I used these players to fill 1B, OF, 3B, and Util (mainly depending on my position in the draft, i.e. if I got Pujols or Wright I wouldn't need to fill 1B/3B respectively) The big name that jumped out to me was Jacoby Ellsbury- a guy who will probably by one the of the best OF in terms of SB with a high BA and a decently high OPS. For 1B, I needed pure power foremost then comes BA. Because I was just decent in HR everywhere else, I just targeted Carlos Pena. Although his BA pisses me off a bit, I think it's OK considering my high BA elsewhere and like I said, HR comes first. The 3B I targeted was Garrett Atkins. In my research, he came up as an Aramis Rameriz but with a .300+ B.A., which comes extremely useful to me. And because he was less values in the draft than other 3B like ARam, I could get a quality 3B a bit later in the draft.

5) So here was a list of specific players I WANTED: Kinsler, Ellsbury, Dukes, and Werth. I love Kinsler and I knew that I probably couldn't get him unless I had a late first round pick, and just my luck, I had the 9th overall pick. In the first three rounds I wanted a combination of 2B, SP, SS, and OF. (Now I clearly would have to change my strategy depending on on my draft position but...) I was able to get Kinsler in the first. Now I wanted Johan Santana in the 2nd and thus get the best available OF in the third, but Since Johan was taken I went with one of the best OF on the board that fit #2 (which was Soriano- admittedly though I took this pick in haste) and luckily CC came to me in the 3rd. Honestly, I thought CC would get taken so the next top tier SP would have been Brandon Webb (and maybe in some ways Webb would have been better) but I didn't want to reach and Sabathia was still available. Now base on previous drafting I knew Ellsbury generally went in the 4th and Atkins generally in the 5th so while they may have been slight stretches, I wanted those players. So in the first five rounds I got a 2B, Of, SP, OF, and 3B. I knew Werth generally went in the 12th so that's where I picked him up and Dukes and Guzman/Theriot (really the only SS I liked outside the first round) go really late so I was able to get some quality SP and RP, I think, between rounds 8-15.

7) I had back up plans just in case things went wrong. Joey Votto was a great 1B to pick up in case the 1B went higher than positions I wanted to take a 1B; Corey Hart was my substitute to Ellsbury; I could get a quality 2B like Brian Roberts, Dustin Pedroia, or Brandon Phillips in the 3rd round or Rickie Weeks and Kelly Johnson in much later rounds; I could have (and did) gotten a SS really late in the draft; 3B was deep so if someone overvalued Atkins I was willing to go after I guy like Edwin Encarnacion in much later rounds; Chris Young would have been an acceptable substitute for Werth; Jack Cust and Jim Thome are fine power/Util guys in later rounds... Anyway, despite my structured attempts in round 1-6, I had a back up just in case.

So now I have given up my secrets for this year's draft. The only draft that mattered was David "MVP" Eckstein's pay league and now that that's done, feel free to take my secrets. Plus, my strategy will change for the next drafts, I could care less really if I lose others leagues, and I still have some players up my sleeve. Enjoy picking at my brain!

2 comments:

The 'Bright' One said...

I really cant believe we have no OPS category. There is like no advantage to walking. Guys who walk a lot probably are less valued. Kinda strange

so who was your secret player? kinsler? Dukes?

Adam Kaplan said...

When I first started working on my spreadsheet, I noticed just how awesome Kinsler is and a few weeks ago when I was mock drafting Pedroia was going in the first and Kinsler was going in the 3rd. So I was like sweet! I can get the better 2nd baseman AND an awesome first round pick too. But then people started catching on. So in the end I got Kinsler with my first pick so clearly he wasn't a sleeper...

Anyone, Dukes was my awesome sleeper. He's going to be amazing next year.