Last year showed everyone that you need some sort of pitching to have any chance at winning games. Now I have absolutely no logic or reasoning for why Verlander did as bad as he did so my prediction is that he'll be somewhat competent and do some of what he did in previous years. Jeremy Bonderman just now sucks and I think it's wishful thinking to think any better. Now the 3-4-5 guys in the rotation are interesting. They added Tampa Bay former 5-starter Edwin Jackson, but he had an ERA over 4 so I don't see why anything should change. Zach Miner, the current 5 starter is a former bullpen arm and quite honestly I haven't seen anything from him either to show he deserved to get out of the bullpen. But their #2 starter intrigues me. His name is Armando Galarraga and he had great numbers last year. Like really really good ones. So If Galarraga (who's only 26) pitches like he did or better than last year and Verlander reverts back to form this pitching gets a huge boost and like an extra 10 wins added to my fake projection of them, but again, that's an IF. I actually don't see it happening though. Maybe tomorrow I'll be able to throw a 100 mph fastball too. Actually if I did I'd probably have a guaranteed spot in the Tigers bullpen, because I too would have no accuracy. This bullpen has been pretty bad for some time but a strong rotation and Todd Jones has sort of hid that, but last years shitty ass rotation but the bullpen's shittiness to the forefront. Adding Brandon Lyon is SOME improvement but they now don't have Todd Jones, the only good player that could find the strike zone in that bullpen. Now the Tigers offense is another story. Miguel Cabrera, Magglio, Placido Polanco, Curtis Granderson, Gerald Laird, Carlos Guillen, and Gary Sheffield are some damn fine players (and Brandon Inge at third and Adam Everett at short may be shitty offensively but they bring some much needed defensive help to that infield) but I just don't see them being good enough to score more runs that their pitching staff gives up, because that pitching staff is going to give up a shit ton.
Projected position in division: 3rd
Players to draft:
-Miguel Cabrera: Ended up being #1 in AL HRs last year. Just make sure he has 3B capabilities otherwise he loses value and drops out of the first round
-Magglio Ordonez: He doesn't hit a lot of HRs for an outfielder but will probably have a batting average over .300 with a about 17 HR and some RBIs and Rs. Finding anyone with a BA over .300 is very difficult and one that will help you in three more categories will be very beneficial
-Placido Polanco: He might also have a BA over .300 and his value increases because he plays second base
-Curtis Granderson: He's not really a guy who excels at one particular category but he can do all five (well BA is iffy but…) pretty decently which garners a place as maybe your #2 or #3 OF
-Carlos Guillen: See Jeter, Derek under the Yankees. He's nothing too impressive but there will be a huge drop off in talent if you don't have a SS and some one just drafted Guillen, you need to find a sleeper and fast!
-Brandon Lyon: He's not the best or consistent closer but he'll rack up the saves. A damn fine #2 closer for your team .
Players I personally don't trust:
-Justin Verlander and Armando Galarraga: Both have shown in the past they can be very good and draft-worthy pitchers but I just don't see it for next year
9 comments:
1) Carlos Guillen will not have SS capabilities in ANY league this year; he will be moving to OF too.
2) You can have Galarraga and Verlander
3) Maggs will hit at least 20 HR
4) Laird is very below average both offensively and defensively
does todd jones' 3K/9 turn you on? how about a 1.6 whip? or a 5.6 FIB? one of the luckiest pitchers i've seen in my life.
i would say that verlander and galarraga are both sleepers.
Carlos Guillen is over rated and is not worth being drafted in a fantasy league unless your desperate.
Oh, I didn't realize Guillen was an OF, fuck him then
Jesus Christ, read my post, I said don't take Galarraga and Verlander
Mags will not hit 20+ HRs
oh my bad; i thought u called those 2 pitchers sleepers
Magglio Ordenez' HR capability if he preforms to X percentile
90- 24 HR
75- 19 HR
50- 16 HR
25- 13 HR
So yes, it is possible for Mags to hit 20+ HR but the vast majority of OF drafted high hits HR and Mags really won't. Plus, he has to perform up to his 90th percentile just to get 24. Mags will not hit over 20 HRs.
whoa dude, calm down.
baseball prospectus is not the only projection system out there and you can't be too reliant on it because it is not god nor the final say. Bill James, for example, is equally as "valid" in his methods and predictions, in my opinion, and formulas between BP and other sites are different in how they value/calculate stats and how their calculations correlate from year to year. All 5 major non-BP projection systems predict Mags will have at least 515 ABs and 20 HRs. Just because BP says 25% chance of 20+, doesnt mean there is a 25% chance of maggs hitting 20+ HR. It's just one opinion.
What I can do is quantify why I think Maggs will hit 20+ HR non-mathematically (because the other 5 systems mathematically predict 20+).
Magglio has posted 1.2ish GB/FB, a .180 ISO and +12 HR/FB% ratio over the past three years. These numbers all point to a plausible 25 HR season. Since Mags is in the declining phase of his career, you can't exactly expect 25 HR, but 20/20+ is very realistic and extremely plausible if he can reach even 525 ABs. He's still got the authority to drive the ball hard (+20% LD%) and Comerica does boost Righty HRs by a bit...
I'm sick and tired of always arguing with you on every little fucking line in my post. The purpose of these posts is to offer our own and insights and opinion on how teams will overall do and also subsequently offer our insight into what players to draft fantasy-wise from said teams. It's now what David "MVP" Eckstein thinks, it's what the author thinks. If we're offering a prediction of the future, you can;' just say "NO" to it.
This site is pissing me off too much. I think I'm gonna leave it soon
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