Inexplicable Baseball Moves: The Curtis Granderson Trade

In an earlier article where I evaluated Curtis Granderson's offensive prospects for 2010, I said the following of Curtis Granderson and Johnny Damon:

"...Curtis Granderson's luck-neutralized 2009 line, if he played for the Yankees rather than the Tigers last season, would have been .277/.364/.522 (.886 OPS). By contrast, Johnny Damon, eight years Granderson's senior, hit .282/.365/.489 (.854 OPS) with 24 homers. It is also worth noting three additional points. First, Damon's UZR/150 last season was -12.1 in LF, while Granderon's posted a +1.6 UZR/150 in CF. Second, Johnny Damon has not once played in even 150 games since 2004. Granderson, by contrast, has played in 155+ games in three of his four major league seasons (he played in 141 games during his injured 2008 season). Finally, Curtis Granderson is owed $25.75 million through 2012 (including a $2 million buy out for 2013), while he can be had for an additional $11 million in 2013. On the other hand, Johnny Damon was paid $13 million last year and is looking for his last lucrative major league contract before he is too old to command a contract of both satisfactory length and pay. Even if Damon was willing to take a pay cut to come back to the Yankees for three years, $30 million, Granderson is the better, younger, and cheaper player."

In a separate article evaluating the blockbuster deal between the Tigers, Yankees and Diamondbacks, I concluded the Tigers "won" in the deal, despite trading away "one of the games best value players (Granderson) who plays a mean CF in terms of both offense and defense," because "[t]hey shed payroll, replaced semi-expensive players with cheap replacements, filled bullpen holes and upgraded their starting rotation."

But then the Tigers did something crazy. Despite the poor economy and state of the team's prospective future finances, they started spending. First they brought in Jose Valverde, a relief pitcher who has not posted a +1 WAR season since 2007 and whom CHONE projects as being worth +7 runs above average in 2010, a 2-year, $14 million deal. Even if 31 year old Jose Valverde, who has never been worth +2.0 WAR in a single season, is worth +3.5 WAR cumulatively across the next two seasons, it will come at the cost of an additional $250,000 than it would have cost the Tigers to keep Curtis Granderson for the 2010 and 2011 seasons. Curtis Granderson has been worth at least +3.4 WAR each of the past four seasons.

Now, according to MLB Trade Rumors, the Tigers have signed Johnny Damon to a 1-year, $8 million contract. Now do not get me wrong, Johnny Damon, who CHONE projects as a +9 bat and +10 glove in left per 150 games (or, with the -7.5 positional and +20 replacement level adjustment, +3.2 WAR), is a good value at $8 million. However, this deal cannot be looked at in a vacuum. It must be analyzed in its full economic context. Curtis Granderson is owed $36.75 million through 2013 if his 2013 club option is exercised. Despite being worth "only" +3.4 WAR last season, he did so with a .275 BABIP -- the lowest of his career. Granderson's xBABIP was .301; his luck-neutral slash line (assuming all additional hits would have been singles) was 268/.353/.486. Granderson's career BABIP is .321. Assuming that Granderson's line comports with his 2009 xBABIP and not his career BABIP in 2010, he looks to be a +4.0 or better WAR player. There is absolutely no reason why Granderson cannot post +3.5 or better WAR seasons through the end of his contract (age 32 season).

Let's pretend that Granderson's 2013 contract is not exercised and he is instead paid the $2 million buy out. That would be $25.75 million owed to him over the next three years. Assuming Granderson posts a meager +3.5 WAR per season for the next three seasons, he will be getting paid +10.5 WAR at less than $2.6 million per win (market value this offseason was ~$3.5 million per win).

The Tigers brought in Johnny Damon and Jose Valverde for a total cost of $22 million. The two will probably provide a total +5.5 WAR for the Tigers, best case scenario. Max Scherzer, one of the game's top young talents, seemingly keeps this whole situation balanced in Detroit's favor, it is important to note that the Tigers also gave up Edwin Jackson (+3.4 WAR last season, perhaps +3.0 WAR next season) in the process. Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth are nice guys to have, but even the most talented relief pitchers provide teams with minimal economic value. Austin Jackson hasn't shown himself to be anything but a 4th outfielder to date.

At best, the Tigers offseason was a wash. The team's big mistake was the expensive addition of Jose Valverde at a whopping $14 million. There goes all the money the team was trying to save to lock up Verlander long term, while keeping Miguel Cabrera around while providing leeway for the mistake know D-Train's contract and for allowing Magglio's ridiculous $18 million option to vest. Maybe the Tigers can just not give Magglio 500 PA in 2010. That would save them some cash next offseason, though I'm sure Dombrowski will find some way to pointlessly spend it.

Tigers-Yankees-Diamondbacks Blockbuster Trade

According to MLBTradeRumors, a blockbuster trade has been completed between the Tigers, Yankees, and Diamondbacks. Each team is rumored to get the following players:

Tigers:

• SP Max Scherzer
  
• RP Daniel Schlereth
  
• RP Phil Coke
  
• CF Austin Jackson
  

Yankees:

• CF Curtis Granderson

Diamondbacks:

• SP Edwin Jackson
• SP Ian Kennedy

This three-way trade has some major implications, so let's evaluate what each side gained and gave up.

The Tigers
The Tigers by far got the best end of this deal. Seeking to shed payroll, fill in some bullpen holes, and acquire cheap, young talent, the Tigers traded away one of the games best value players (Granderson) who plays a mean CF in terms of both offense and defense, in addition to a soon-to-be 27 year old hard-throwing right-handed SP (Jackson) who over-performed last year and generally has below average, but improving control, no strikeout talent and two years left until he reaches free agency. In exchange, the Tigers received four quality players and met each of their goals. The prize of the Tigers' acquisition was Max Scherzer, a soon-to-be 26 year old, hard-throwing right-handed SP (Scherzer) with high strikeout talent, above-average control and three, possibly four, more years of team control before he becomes arbitration eligible. If Scherzer does not qualify for super-two status next offseason, the Tigers will end up paying a better-than-Jackson SP less than $1 million, while Jackson probably makes at least $10 million over that same time frame. In addition to Scherzer, the Tigers also acquired two relievers: Phil Coke, a solid and above average RP who limited the walks and struck out more batters than the league average while playing in the AL East last year, from the Yankees and Daniel Schlereth, a closer-of-the-future kind of RP with great stuff and questionable control, from the Diamondbacks. Considering that Lyons and Rodney are free agents, this gives the team more leverage when dealing with Brandon Lyon and a viable set of cheap, late-inning relievers for the Tigers. The Tigers also got Austin Jackson, one of the Yankee's top prospects, who profiles as a league-average (or better) hitting CF with great speed and range to replace Granderson. At just 22 years old, Jackson has a lot of upside and 6 years of major league control left to his name.

Conclusion: The Tigers accomplished everyone of their team's goals with this trade. They shed payroll, replaced semi-expensive players with cheap replacements, filled bullpen holes and upgraded their starting rotation.


The Yankees
The Yankees also made out big with this trade. With Johnny Damon departing to free agency and 4th OFs Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner and not-quite-ready CF prospect Austin Jackson left to fill both center and left fields, the Yankees were in search of one, if not two, outfielders. Although you can never discount the Yankees getting involved in the Matt Holliday/Jason Bay sweepstakes, this helps the team fill up centerfield at a great value and it gives the team a lot more negotiating leverage against Scott Boras and his clients (Damon, Holliday). Granderson is without a doubt an all around upgrade over the aging and expensive Damon and if the Yankees can clobber everyone on their way to a world series title with Damon in left and Cabrera/Gardner, I see no reason why they can't do it with Granderson in center and Cabrera/Gardner in left. With Granderson, the Yankees acquired a not-cheap, but not-expensive player with some of the best all around tools in the game (walks, hits for power, quality range, average arm) and probably have plenty of money left over -- especially if they let Damon walk -- to make another big free agency splash while keeping the payroll under the 2008 mark. And what did it cost them? None of their core young talent (Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Mike Dunn, or Jesus Montero). Just a slightly above average, but still useful reliever (Phil Coke) and a starting pitcher with no room on the roster and more hype than true talent (Ian Kennedy, aka "the next Greg Maddux").

Conclusion: The Yankees got what they needed -- a quality outfielder and leverage in the free agency market -- at a great value in terms of both $ cost and players traded, so they are sure to be great for online betting.


The Diamondbacks
Oh boy, where to begin. The Diamondbacks got ripped off. They traded away a young, cheap ace pitcher and high talent potential closer of the future and bought high on a hard-throwing (but improving) SP (Jackson) who over-performed last season and has at least two less years of team control to his name in addition to a brand name minor leaguer with limited "success" at any level of play since 2007. For a guy who is supposed to be "the next Greg Maddux, he needs to start limiting the walks (his career major-league equivalent BB/9 is 3.95). Kennedy is still relatively young (soon-to-be 26) and has been getting better at the strikeouts in AAA, but he's entering his "prime years" and has yet to show any significant major league success.

Conclusion: Kennedy may provide the Diamondbacks with a quality arm, but the risk inherent in him putting it all together (in addition to the probable regression from Jackson, a pitcher who outperformed his peripherals last year and also has a four year trend of increasing FB tendencies) makes trading away a cheap stud like Scherzer and high ceiling reliever like Schlereth an unwise gamble.

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All in all, it's not like anyone expected the Diamondbacks to contend in 2010 anyways. Perhaps the team, realizing this, decided to take the long-term risk with Kennedy (who the Yankees had no room for), while gaining another arm (Jackson), who, in addition to Webb, the team can unload for some quality prospects to a contender come July. The Tigers and Yankees won big on this deal and the Diamondbacks took on a whole lot of unnecessary risk (and some salary), to which I call them the unequivocal losers of the deal.

Fantasy Outlook: Rick Porcello

Over the next five months, I will periodically post some fantasy analysis of players who had success/failure in 2009 and whether or not you should draft/avoid them in 2010. Come winter break and the end of law finals, my analysis will become more thorough, but for now, I am going to kick off this series with a peek into the success of 20-year old Rick Porcello in 2009.

Despite the abysmal 4.69 K/9 rate and 4.77 FIP (3.96 ERA), there was much to love about Rick Porcello's campaign last year: quality control over his four-pitch mix (2.74 BB/9, 3.6 MLB average), top-tier worm burning tendencies (1.89 FB/GB, 7th best amongst MLB starters who logged 150+ IP, and a 54.2% GB rate) and the potential for improvement which is inherent in youth (he cannot legally drink until the end of December) and an unlucky HR/FB rate (14.1%, MLB average is 11% >> Porcello's xFIP was a lower 4.52). The strikeout rate is not as scary as it seems if you look at Porcello's monthly pitching splits. Take notice that his K/9, though still below the MLB average each month, was heavily depressed by a poor strikeout showing in June and September (in June/Sept, Porcello's K/9 was below 4.0, while his K/9 was no lower than 5.0 in any other month). You might go so far as to call Rick Porcello a young and better Mark Buehrle.

In real life, Fangraphs qualified Rick Porcello's 3.96 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 14 W and 89 K performance as being worth 1.9 WAR or $8.9 million in 2009. Yahoo, meanwhile, ranked Porcello as the 263rd most valuable player in fantasy baseball. This represents a sizable profit for Porcello buyers given his 396 pre-season ranking, but nonetheless hinging on the margins of fantasy relevance in standard leagues. The question of improvement/decline is critical in determining whether or not Porcello will provide worthwhile fantasy value in 2010.

First, we look towards injury risk. In my 2009 fantasy drafting primer for pitchers, I detailed the important and relevance of workload and age to injury risk:

Baseball Prospectus has shown, pitchers are most brittle before the age of 24 and after the age of 35. Tom Verducci observed that pitchers under the age of 25 who increase their seasonal workload by more than 25-30 innings in a single season are the most susceptible to injury the following year.

Porcello, at age 20, took a 45 innings pitched leap compared to his 2008 minor league campaign (170 IP in 2009, 125 IP in 2008). This represents a sizable risk, but a pair of factors tend to abate these concerns. Despite posting 170 innings in junior circuit in 2009, Rick Porcello was not among the 150 most abused arms in baseball. Clay Buchholz had a more abused arm and he only pitched in the majors for like fifteen minutes last year. Porcello's relatively low PAP rating is largely due to the fact that the Tigers did an excellent job regulating Rick Porcello's workload per game in 2009. Porcello only topped the 100-pitch mark four times in 2009 and only once did he toss over 104 pitches (111, on 9/29).

Next, we look towards Porcello's luck and progress factors and whether they point towards regression, stabilization or improvement. These factors include HR/FB rate, LOB% and age.

As mentioned above, Porcello was unlucky with the long ball in 2009. Despite pitching in a relatively neutral, though slightly hitter-friendly, ballpark and posting a top ten GB/FB rate amongst starting pitchers, Porcello posted a 14.1% HR/FB rate, which is the fourth-highest mark amongst all starting pitchers who threw 150 or more innings in 2009. This number usually stabilizes in the 10-11% range for pitchers over the course of their career and some regression towards the mean (improvement) is reasonably inferable. This is represented in the fact that Porcello's xFIP is a quarter run below his actual FIP.

There is also the matter of LOB%. There has been plenty of statistical work done to prove that once a ball is in play, the pitcher does not control the outcome of that play (outside of any defensive work he may be required to employ). Thus, LOB (Left On Base) percentages tend to normalize amongst starting pitchers, although pitchers with higher strikeout rates tend to strand more runners than average (the counter-positive is also true). In 2009, the league average LOB% was 71.9%. Rick Porcello's was 75.5%. Before we scream "regression, regression, regression" regarding LOB%, however, it is important, as implied above, that we analyze the defensive prowess of the players behind the pitcher. A pitcher who plays in a cavernous ball park and has a great defense behind him tends outperform their peripherals (see Jarrod Washburn's numbers before his trade to Detroit in 2009). The opposite is true for pitchers playing in front of poor defenses (see Javier Vazquez on the White Sox, circa 2006 and 2008). As a heavy groundball pitcher, Rick Porcello relies upon his infield defense almost 55% of the time. In 2009, the Tiger's best defensive starters (and in fact only good defensive starters) were stationed in the infield. 2B Placido Polanco (+12.1), SS Adam Everett (+8.9), 3B Brandon Inge (+8.5) and 1B Miguel Cabrera (+3.4 >> yeah I know, I'm as shocked as you are) combined to be worth approximately +3.3 WAR on defense by preventing 33 runs from scoring compared to the average major league defense. Such is strongly indicative of a maintainable LOB% above the MLB average.

Finally, looking at Porcello's age, there is plenty of room to expect some, if only modest, improvement in his skill set going forward. The 5+ K/9 in four out of five months in 2009, quality command of his pitches and extreme groundball tendencies are a recipe for success. Rick Porcello, who will be 21 in 2010, is not even entering his prime yet (usually ages 24-31). There will surely be bumps along the way as Rick Porcello grows as a pitcher, but the early signs for success are positive. Porcello does not project to be a Justin Verlander or Felix Hernandez, but a poor man's Greg Maddux is nothing unreasonable.

So what does this say for Rick Porcello's 2010 prospects? Well for one thing, if the Tigers let free agents to be Adam Everett and Placido Polanco (who collectively prevented 21 runs above average from scoring) go without replacing their up the middle prowess, one can reasonably expect a slight, if not sharp regression in Porcello's 2010 LOB% and surface numbers (such as ERA; see FB pitcher Javier Vazquez's change in ERA from 2007 to 2008 as the White Sox OF went from defensively above average to defensively poor). In 2009, the Tigers collectively paid Everett and Polanco $5.6 million, but Fangraphs, who valued a win at $4.5 million last year, valued their defensive contributions alone at $9+ million (and their collective, all-around value at $18.7 million). Even if the Tigers want to be cheap next year, the Tigers should consider resigning their middle infielders. At the right price (let's say $6 million a year for Polanco and $3 million per for Everett), both players are good defenders with, at worst, league average bats, who could easily provide the team with more than they are paying. This is, of course, a problem with the likes of Magglio and D-Train on the books. Perhaps the Tigers can find a team who is willing to take on some (if not more) of the salary and risk inherent in these two aging, sub-replacement level players for absolutely nothing in return (see the Alex Rios to Chicago deal) in order to free up the salary necessary to resign Everett and Polanco. This seems like a much wiser idea than letting the team's two best defensive players walk and replacing them with replacement level players (and allow Magglio and D-Train to provide the team with poor value). The Tigers had a $115+ million payroll in 2009 and its hard to imagine that a franchise like the Tigers have much payroll flexibility for 2010, given a projected payroll upwards of $116 million before arbitration.

Alas, much of the politics of who to/not to sign is a digression from the point. What is important is that Rick Porcello's 2010 fantasy value largely will hinge upon the free agency moves that the Tigers do/do not make this off season. If the Tigers let their middle infield combination walk and do not replace their defensive contributions, I would push Rick Porcello's borderline relevant fantasy numbers towards irrelevancy. If the Tigers bring Everett and Polanco back (or somehow manage to otherwise improve defensively (like never playing Magglio in the outfield ever again...), Porcello may be a great late round pick and trade chip.

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Click the new "Fantasy Outlook" tag to follow the series. Last year's posts have been updated with the new label.

Tigers barren minor league system

Thanks to a handful of trades and poor draft picks over the past few seasons, the Tigers minor league system is barren. Take a look at the four trades that wiped them out:

• Jair Jurrjens (SP) for Edgar Renteria (SS) and Gorkys Hernandez (OF)
  
• Andrew Miller (SP), Cameron Maybin (CF), Burke Badenhop (P) plus a handful of unknowns for Dontrelle Willis (SP) and Miguel Cabrera (3B/1B)
• Rudy Darrow (SP) for Josh Anderson (CF)
• Matt Joyce (CF) for Edwin Jackson (SP)

Too lazy/hungry to do analysis. Just sayin'

Horrible Trades, Wiped Out Farm Systems

Did you know that the anemic pitching system of the Texas Rangers once simulataneously included Chris Young (traded with Adrian Gonzalez for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka), Edinson Volquez (traded for Josh Hamilton) and John Danks (traded for Brandon McCarthy)? With Josh Hamilton being the notable exception, the Rangers have basically given away several of their top players (including Mark Teixeira) over the years for "top prospects" that never panned out (replacing traded talent with aged veterans like Vincent Padilla, Kevin Millwood and Eric Gange).

Scarier than this situation is that of the Detroit Tigers, who traded the entire farm in less than two years (primarily in one offseason). Since the end of the 2007 season, the Tigers have given away Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Jair Jurrjens, Matt Joyce, Gorky Hernandez and Burke Badenhop (in addition to a few other no name guys) and only received Miguel Cabrera (who is great), Dontrelle Willis (who has been the opposite of great since 2006) and Edgar Renteria (who is old and inconsistent) in return. Of those three, only Miguel Cabrera is expected to be on the major league roster in 2009. The Tigers' minor league system is pretty barren, with 2007 draft pick Rick Porcello being the lone retained talent. Doom and gloom looms for Detroit fans past 2010.

Just think, Detroit fans, this is what the core of your team COULD have looked like in 2009:
C - Greg Laird
1B - Magglio Ordonez (he can't hurt you as bad defensively if you shove him at first)
2B - Placido Polanco
SS - Adam Everett
3B - Carlos Guillen
OF - Curtis Granderson
OF - Matt Joyce
OF - Cameron Maybin
DH - Gary Sheffield
SP - Justin Verlander, Jair Jurrjens, Andrew Miller, Armando Galaragga, Rick Porcello

Instead, you have Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and D-Train. Congratulations, Dave Dombrowski.

The Detroit Tigers

Last year showed everyone that you need some sort of pitching to have any chance at winning games. Now I have absolutely no logic or reasoning for why Verlander did as bad as he did so my prediction is that he'll be somewhat competent and do some of what he did in previous years. Jeremy Bonderman just now sucks and I think it's wishful thinking to think any better. Now the 3-4-5 guys in the rotation are interesting. They added Tampa Bay former 5-starter Edwin Jackson, but he had an ERA over 4 so I don't see why anything should change. Zach Miner, the current 5 starter is a former bullpen arm and quite honestly I haven't seen anything from him either to show he deserved to get out of the bullpen. But their #2 starter intrigues me. His name is Armando Galarraga and he had great numbers last year. Like really really good ones. So If Galarraga (who's only 26) pitches like he did or better than last year and Verlander reverts back to form this pitching gets a huge boost and like an extra 10 wins added to my fake projection of them, but again, that's an IF. I actually don't see it happening though. Maybe tomorrow I'll be able to throw a 100 mph fastball too. Actually if I did I'd probably have a guaranteed spot in the Tigers bullpen, because I too would have no accuracy. This bullpen has been pretty bad for some time but a strong rotation and Todd Jones has sort of hid that, but last years shitty ass rotation but the bullpen's shittiness to the forefront. Adding Brandon Lyon is SOME improvement but they now don't have Todd Jones, the only good player that could find the strike zone in that bullpen. Now the Tigers offense is another story. Miguel Cabrera, Magglio, Placido Polanco, Curtis Granderson, Gerald Laird, Carlos Guillen, and Gary Sheffield are some damn fine players (and Brandon Inge at third and Adam Everett at short may be shitty offensively but they bring some much needed defensive help to that infield) but I just don't see them being good enough to score more runs that their pitching staff gives up, because that pitching staff is going to give up a shit ton.

Projected position in division: 3rd

Players to draft:

-Miguel Cabrera: Ended up being #1 in AL HRs last year. Just make sure he has 3B capabilities otherwise he loses value and drops out of the first round

-Magglio Ordonez: He doesn't hit a lot of HRs for an outfielder but will probably have a batting average over .300 with a about 17 HR and some RBIs and Rs. Finding anyone with a BA over .300 is very difficult and one that will help you in three more categories will be very beneficial

-Placido Polanco: He might also have a BA over .300 and his value increases because he plays second base

-Curtis Granderson: He's not really a guy who excels at one particular category but he can do all five (well BA is iffy but…) pretty decently which garners a place as maybe your #2 or #3 OF

-Carlos Guillen: See Jeter, Derek under the Yankees. He's nothing too impressive but there will be a huge drop off in talent if you don't have a SS and some one just drafted Guillen, you need to find a sleeper and fast!

-Brandon Lyon: He's not the best or consistent closer but he'll rack up the saves. A damn fine #2 closer for your team .

Players I personally don't trust:

-Justin Verlander and Armando Galarraga: Both have shown in the past they can be very good and draft-worthy pitchers but I just don't see it for next year