Inexplicable Baseball Moves: The Curtis Granderson Trade

In an earlier article where I evaluated Curtis Granderson's offensive prospects for 2010, I said the following of Curtis Granderson and Johnny Damon:

"...Curtis Granderson's luck-neutralized 2009 line, if he played for the Yankees rather than the Tigers last season, would have been .277/.364/.522 (.886 OPS). By contrast, Johnny Damon, eight years Granderson's senior, hit .282/.365/.489 (.854 OPS) with 24 homers. It is also worth noting three additional points. First, Damon's UZR/150 last season was -12.1 in LF, while Granderon's posted a +1.6 UZR/150 in CF. Second, Johnny Damon has not once played in even 150 games since 2004. Granderson, by contrast, has played in 155+ games in three of his four major league seasons (he played in 141 games during his injured 2008 season). Finally, Curtis Granderson is owed $25.75 million through 2012 (including a $2 million buy out for 2013), while he can be had for an additional $11 million in 2013. On the other hand, Johnny Damon was paid $13 million last year and is looking for his last lucrative major league contract before he is too old to command a contract of both satisfactory length and pay. Even if Damon was willing to take a pay cut to come back to the Yankees for three years, $30 million, Granderson is the better, younger, and cheaper player."

In a separate article evaluating the blockbuster deal between the Tigers, Yankees and Diamondbacks, I concluded the Tigers "won" in the deal, despite trading away "one of the games best value players (Granderson) who plays a mean CF in terms of both offense and defense," because "[t]hey shed payroll, replaced semi-expensive players with cheap replacements, filled bullpen holes and upgraded their starting rotation."

But then the Tigers did something crazy. Despite the poor economy and state of the team's prospective future finances, they started spending. First they brought in Jose Valverde, a relief pitcher who has not posted a +1 WAR season since 2007 and whom CHONE projects as being worth +7 runs above average in 2010, a 2-year, $14 million deal. Even if 31 year old Jose Valverde, who has never been worth +2.0 WAR in a single season, is worth +3.5 WAR cumulatively across the next two seasons, it will come at the cost of an additional $250,000 than it would have cost the Tigers to keep Curtis Granderson for the 2010 and 2011 seasons. Curtis Granderson has been worth at least +3.4 WAR each of the past four seasons.

Now, according to MLB Trade Rumors, the Tigers have signed Johnny Damon to a 1-year, $8 million contract. Now do not get me wrong, Johnny Damon, who CHONE projects as a +9 bat and +10 glove in left per 150 games (or, with the -7.5 positional and +20 replacement level adjustment, +3.2 WAR), is a good value at $8 million. However, this deal cannot be looked at in a vacuum. It must be analyzed in its full economic context. Curtis Granderson is owed $36.75 million through 2013 if his 2013 club option is exercised. Despite being worth "only" +3.4 WAR last season, he did so with a .275 BABIP -- the lowest of his career. Granderson's xBABIP was .301; his luck-neutral slash line (assuming all additional hits would have been singles) was 268/.353/.486. Granderson's career BABIP is .321. Assuming that Granderson's line comports with his 2009 xBABIP and not his career BABIP in 2010, he looks to be a +4.0 or better WAR player. There is absolutely no reason why Granderson cannot post +3.5 or better WAR seasons through the end of his contract (age 32 season).

Let's pretend that Granderson's 2013 contract is not exercised and he is instead paid the $2 million buy out. That would be $25.75 million owed to him over the next three years. Assuming Granderson posts a meager +3.5 WAR per season for the next three seasons, he will be getting paid +10.5 WAR at less than $2.6 million per win (market value this offseason was ~$3.5 million per win).

The Tigers brought in Johnny Damon and Jose Valverde for a total cost of $22 million. The two will probably provide a total +5.5 WAR for the Tigers, best case scenario. Max Scherzer, one of the game's top young talents, seemingly keeps this whole situation balanced in Detroit's favor, it is important to note that the Tigers also gave up Edwin Jackson (+3.4 WAR last season, perhaps +3.0 WAR next season) in the process. Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth are nice guys to have, but even the most talented relief pitchers provide teams with minimal economic value. Austin Jackson hasn't shown himself to be anything but a 4th outfielder to date.

At best, the Tigers offseason was a wash. The team's big mistake was the expensive addition of Jose Valverde at a whopping $14 million. There goes all the money the team was trying to save to lock up Verlander long term, while keeping Miguel Cabrera around while providing leeway for the mistake know D-Train's contract and for allowing Magglio's ridiculous $18 million option to vest. Maybe the Tigers can just not give Magglio 500 PA in 2010. That would save them some cash next offseason, though I'm sure Dombrowski will find some way to pointlessly spend it.

Projecting Curtis Granderson's 2010

In light of the recent blockbuster Tigers-Yankees-Diamondbacks deal, I though that it would be interesting to project Curtis Granderson's 2010 for my next edition of "Fantasy Outlook." Earlier today, Dave Allen over at Fangraphs pointed out that Granderson is a lefty pull-power hitter and that he should bode well with New Yankee Stadium's Right Field porch, projecting another 30+ HR season. I am going to take things a step further by first normalizing Curtis Granderson's 2009 BABIP and triple slash line using The Hardball Times xBABIP tool and then a series of park factor adjustments to see what Curtis Granderson's 2009 would have looked like if his BABIP matched his xBABIP and if he played in Yankee stadium. Quick disclaimer: this is a rough forecast. To get a much more accurate forecast, one would have to weight the numbers based on percentage of games played at each park and then adjust the numbers accordingly. Doing so would take hours and I do not have the free time necessary to "accurately" forecast a single player. If anyone has the time, I have provided plenty of resources below from which you can derive a better forecast. I, however, am satisfied with a "quick forecast," especially since Granderson will play 92+ games at either Yankee Stadium or Fenway next season (both of which distort right-field home run hitters plenty). Feel free to add/subtract a few jacks, doubles, triples, etc. as you see logically fit from the weighted calculation. Otherwise, on to the numbers.

Let's begin by determining Granderson's 2009 xBABIP. Granderson hit .249/.327/.453 with a .276 BABIP. THT's xBABIP calculator (screenshot to the right) puts Granderson's 2009 xBABIP at .301. Granderson's career BABIP is .323, but his speed score has been down each of the last two seasons and almost half of his hits were flyballs last year (xBABIP for flyballs is .138). Thus a .301 xBABIP makes sense, despite the 21.2 LD%.

Now that we have an xBABIP to work with, we need to adjust Granderson's 2009 numbers to eliminate the bad luck he experienced last year. BABIP is calculated by the formula: (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF). With HR totals present in the formula and a goal of neutralizing luck, it is important to determine whether or not it is necessary to modify Granderson's 2009 baseline HR total. According to Hit Tracker Online (HTO), Granderson had two "lucky home runs. HTO does not account for "just missed" home runs, but I think its a safe to assume that Granderson was "robbed" at least once (or that he "just missed" a home run or two in a cavernous park) last season. Therefore, I am not going to modify Granderson's baseline home run total. Using a .301 xBABIP and 30 HRs as the basis for normalizing Granderson's 2009 line in Comerica park, we find that Granderson's expected hit total from 2009 (xHits) playing for the Tigers would rise from 157 to approximately 169 [xHits=0.301*(631-141-39+2)+39]. It is difficult to say, at least with any semblance of accuracy, which of these additional 12 hits would have been singles, doubles or triples, so I am simply going to assume that they are all singles in determining Granderson's luck-neutralized 2009 triple slash line. Using Granderson's 72 walks, 2 HBP and +12 singles, Granderson's 2009 luck-neutralized triple slash line playing for the Tigers would be .268/.353/.486 (.839 xOPS vs his actual .780 OPS).

Using ESPN's park factor adjustments, we can now convert Granderson's luck-neutral line at Comerica into a luck-neutral line at New Yankee Stadium. First, lets start with the home run totals. According to ESPN's park factor data, Comerica Park depressed home runs by 3.6%, while Yankee Stadium inflated them by 26.1%. Taking Curtis Granderson's 30 home run total at Comerica as the baseline, Granderson's xHR total at New Yankee Stadium would be approximately 39. Accordingly, Granderson's xHit total at New Yankee Stadium would rise to 175. These additional six hits would come at the expense of three doubles and four triples. Thus, Granderson would gain nine homers and four singles by moving to New Yankee Stadium. According to ESPN's park factor data, Granderson would also gain five walks from his change of scenery. Thus, Curtis Granderson's luck-neutralized 2009 line, if he played for the Yankees rather than the Tigers last season, would have been .277/.364/.522 (.886 OPS).

By contrast, Johnny Damon, eight years Granderson's senior, hit .282/.365/.489 (.854 OPS) with 24 homers. It is also worth noting three additional points. First, Damon's UZR/150 last season was -12.1 in LF, while Granderon's posted a +1.6 UZR/150 in CF. Second, Johnny Damon has not once played in even 150 games since 2004. Granderson, by contrast, has played in 155+ games in three of his four major league seasons (he played in 141 games during his injured 2008 season). Finally, Curtis Granderson is owed $25.75 million through 2012 (including a $2 million buy out for 2013), while he can be had for an additional $11 million in 2013. On the other hand, Johnny Damon was paid $13 million last year and is looking for his last lucrative major league contract before he is too old to command a contract of both satisfactory length and pay. Even if Damon was willing to take a pay cut to come back to the Yankees for three years, $30 million, Granderson is the better, younger, and cheaper player.

The Yankees made out big in this trade. They upgraded their 25 man roster by trading a high-potential starting pitcher with no room on the major league roster and a highly fungible reliever for one of the game's best value OFs. In addition, they gained a lot of negotiating leverage in the free agency market because they know that they can stand pat with who they have now (having re-signed Pettite earlier today) and be at least as competitive as they were in 2009 (especially with a healthy A-Rod). The Yankees are primed to repeat as not only the best team in the NL East, but the AL. I would not be surprised to see them in the World Series again in 2010. And the scary part? They will still have payroll room (compared to 2008 and 2009) to add any necessary pieces at the trade deadline.

Alas, I digress. Returning to the forecasting front, Granderson's luck-neutral 2009 numbers translate into a .277/.364/.522 (.886 OPS) triple slash line if he were a Yankee last year. Granderson would have, in theory, drawn 77 walks, hit 20 doubles, 4 triples, 39 homers and 112 singles. Below are Curtis Granderson's home run scatterplot charts from 2007-2009 (click to enlarge).

As you can tell from the above data, 60 of Granderson's previous 73 home runs went to right field. Given New Yankee Stadium's cozy right-field porch (same with Fenway), Granderson seems almost a lock for 35+ home runs next season despite his two-year decline in ISO. Why? If for no other reason than the fact that Granderson's ISO at home (.190) is a full 42 points lower than it is away from Comerica Park (.232). Furthermore, Curtis Granderson turns 29 next year. He is in his prime and it's not unreasonable to expect him to maintain his +.200 ISO ways for the duration of his current contract (through his 32 age year, if the Yankees pick up his 2013 option). With a 30-35+ home run and double digit (closer to twenty) stolen base expectations and a reasonable BA rebound to the .275 range, Curtis Granderson should be a top 10 OF next season. Put in the right part of the order, Granderson will also have 100 R/100 RBI potential. Rather than waste top dollar on great, but overvalued commodities like Kemp, Ellsbury and Braun next season, why not take a look at Granderson? I promise you won't be disappointed.

Tigers-Yankees-Diamondbacks Blockbuster Trade

According to MLBTradeRumors, a blockbuster trade has been completed between the Tigers, Yankees, and Diamondbacks. Each team is rumored to get the following players:

Tigers:

• SP Max Scherzer
  
• RP Daniel Schlereth
  
• RP Phil Coke
  
• CF Austin Jackson
  

Yankees:

• CF Curtis Granderson

Diamondbacks:

• SP Edwin Jackson
• SP Ian Kennedy

This three-way trade has some major implications, so let's evaluate what each side gained and gave up.

The Tigers
The Tigers by far got the best end of this deal. Seeking to shed payroll, fill in some bullpen holes, and acquire cheap, young talent, the Tigers traded away one of the games best value players (Granderson) who plays a mean CF in terms of both offense and defense, in addition to a soon-to-be 27 year old hard-throwing right-handed SP (Jackson) who over-performed last year and generally has below average, but improving control, no strikeout talent and two years left until he reaches free agency. In exchange, the Tigers received four quality players and met each of their goals. The prize of the Tigers' acquisition was Max Scherzer, a soon-to-be 26 year old, hard-throwing right-handed SP (Scherzer) with high strikeout talent, above-average control and three, possibly four, more years of team control before he becomes arbitration eligible. If Scherzer does not qualify for super-two status next offseason, the Tigers will end up paying a better-than-Jackson SP less than $1 million, while Jackson probably makes at least $10 million over that same time frame. In addition to Scherzer, the Tigers also acquired two relievers: Phil Coke, a solid and above average RP who limited the walks and struck out more batters than the league average while playing in the AL East last year, from the Yankees and Daniel Schlereth, a closer-of-the-future kind of RP with great stuff and questionable control, from the Diamondbacks. Considering that Lyons and Rodney are free agents, this gives the team more leverage when dealing with Brandon Lyon and a viable set of cheap, late-inning relievers for the Tigers. The Tigers also got Austin Jackson, one of the Yankee's top prospects, who profiles as a league-average (or better) hitting CF with great speed and range to replace Granderson. At just 22 years old, Jackson has a lot of upside and 6 years of major league control left to his name.

Conclusion: The Tigers accomplished everyone of their team's goals with this trade. They shed payroll, replaced semi-expensive players with cheap replacements, filled bullpen holes and upgraded their starting rotation.


The Yankees
The Yankees also made out big with this trade. With Johnny Damon departing to free agency and 4th OFs Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner and not-quite-ready CF prospect Austin Jackson left to fill both center and left fields, the Yankees were in search of one, if not two, outfielders. Although you can never discount the Yankees getting involved in the Matt Holliday/Jason Bay sweepstakes, this helps the team fill up centerfield at a great value and it gives the team a lot more negotiating leverage against Scott Boras and his clients (Damon, Holliday). Granderson is without a doubt an all around upgrade over the aging and expensive Damon and if the Yankees can clobber everyone on their way to a world series title with Damon in left and Cabrera/Gardner, I see no reason why they can't do it with Granderson in center and Cabrera/Gardner in left. With Granderson, the Yankees acquired a not-cheap, but not-expensive player with some of the best all around tools in the game (walks, hits for power, quality range, average arm) and probably have plenty of money left over -- especially if they let Damon walk -- to make another big free agency splash while keeping the payroll under the 2008 mark. And what did it cost them? None of their core young talent (Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Mike Dunn, or Jesus Montero). Just a slightly above average, but still useful reliever (Phil Coke) and a starting pitcher with no room on the roster and more hype than true talent (Ian Kennedy, aka "the next Greg Maddux").

Conclusion: The Yankees got what they needed -- a quality outfielder and leverage in the free agency market -- at a great value in terms of both $ cost and players traded, so they are sure to be great for online betting.


The Diamondbacks
Oh boy, where to begin. The Diamondbacks got ripped off. They traded away a young, cheap ace pitcher and high talent potential closer of the future and bought high on a hard-throwing (but improving) SP (Jackson) who over-performed last season and has at least two less years of team control to his name in addition to a brand name minor leaguer with limited "success" at any level of play since 2007. For a guy who is supposed to be "the next Greg Maddux, he needs to start limiting the walks (his career major-league equivalent BB/9 is 3.95). Kennedy is still relatively young (soon-to-be 26) and has been getting better at the strikeouts in AAA, but he's entering his "prime years" and has yet to show any significant major league success.

Conclusion: Kennedy may provide the Diamondbacks with a quality arm, but the risk inherent in him putting it all together (in addition to the probable regression from Jackson, a pitcher who outperformed his peripherals last year and also has a four year trend of increasing FB tendencies) makes trading away a cheap stud like Scherzer and high ceiling reliever like Schlereth an unwise gamble.

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All in all, it's not like anyone expected the Diamondbacks to contend in 2010 anyways. Perhaps the team, realizing this, decided to take the long-term risk with Kennedy (who the Yankees had no room for), while gaining another arm (Jackson), who, in addition to Webb, the team can unload for some quality prospects to a contender come July. The Tigers and Yankees won big on this deal and the Diamondbacks took on a whole lot of unnecessary risk (and some salary), to which I call them the unequivocal losers of the deal.