Originally I was going to start this post off by saying the Yankees would win the division and this post was dedicated to who would win the AL Wild Card but with no bullpen and no pitching depth and injury risks to Chien-Minh Wang, C.C. Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett, I'd actually say this division is up for grabs. While I still think the Yankees are going to to win the division, here's my "Wild Card" prediction by match ups. A Yankees/Red Sox match up has already been done so I'm going to do Rays/Red Sox
Catcher
Dioneer Navarro v Jason Varitek.
An old washed up player who has trouble getting his OBS over .300 in recent days versus an young up and coming stud. Maybe if this was Veritek a few years ago, I'd go with him, but this is not the Veritek of old, this is the Veritek who is 36/37 years old
Winner: Rays
First Base
Carlos Pena v Kevin Youkilis
Since Kevin "The Greek God of Walks" Youkilis' rookie season, he has never had an OBS under .381. However Pena is no stranger to walking either having an OBS the past two years of .411 and .377. Pena has also had more HRs than Youkilis of last dinging 46 two years ago and 31 last year versus Youk's 16 two years ago and 29 last year. But Youk has had more plate appearance than Pena, who is the past twp years has maxed out at 490 ABs. Youk is also getting better and better as the years roll on, was 4th in the AL in OBS last year, and is much younger than Pena who seems to be inconsistent and showing his age. It's because of this that Youk wins over Pena, but not by much.
Winner: Red Sox
Second Base
Akinori Iwamura v Dustin Pedroia
Iwamura, in his two seasons in MLB has had an OBS of .359 and .349. Pedroia, in his essentially two seasons have had a OBS of .380 and .376. Pedroia has a better career OPS+, SLG, HR, and SB%.
Winner: Red Sox
Shortstop:
Jason Bartlett v Jed Lowrie
In five season, Bartlett's career OPS+ is 85. I actually am not quite sure how to read defensive stats on baseballreference.com, but because he's a former Twins, and from what I've heard, he's a darn good defender. Lowrie only has a handful of starts under his belt, but his minor league numbers shows he has plate discipline but little to no power. I also don't know anything about his defense but I assume because he's a Red Sox it's pretty good. This match up is pretty bad but I'm going to give it to Lowrie because I think he can get on base in the pros
Winner: Red Sox
Third Base
Evan Longoria v Mike Lowell
I don't even need to look up the players stats to know just how awesome Longoria is and just how average Lowell is
Winner: Rays
Left Field
Carl Crawford v Jason Bay
Crawford has a career OBS+ of 101 but is a damn fine base stealer. Unfortunately his career OBS is .330 and he's injury prone. Bay has a career OPS+ of 131, can hit 30+ HRs a year. Bay walks and has power, what more do you want out of a player?
Winner: Red Sox
Center Field
B.J. Upton v Jacoby Ellsbury
More are young guys known for stealing bases. Upton has a better OBS than Ellsbury. But Ellsbury steals more bases and (although limited sample size) at a better rate. Upton has more power capabilities hitting 24 two years ago but last year only had 9. In his four season, Upton's OPS+ is above 100 versus Ellsbuy's which is not. Therefore, I give the edge to Upton. Plus, BJ stands for Bossman Junior
Winner: Rays
Right Field
Matt Joyce v J.D. Drew
Joyce is young and has some pop but doesn't have the best plate discipline. J.D. can walk and has power but is old and can be inconsistent. However, Drew has proven to be awesome and healthy and he was that last year. I think Joyce will be better than Drew soon, but not next year.
Winner: Red Sox
DH
Pat Burrell v Big Papi
Ortiz' career OPS+ is 138 versus Burrell's 119. Ortiz has has seasons of 40-50 HRs and Burrell has never gotten above 33 in the past 6 years. However Ortiz seems to be on the decline, doesn't have Manny hitting behind him, and now is facing steroid allegations. But Burrell isn't without his faults either having streaks of amazingness and streaks of shittiness giving him just above average total numbers. If Burrell could consistently hold his career numbers I'd give him this one but it's just so hard to.
Winner: Red Sox
Bullpen
Dan Wheeler v Jonathan Papelbon
Troy Pervical v Hideki Okajima
The best closer in the game and one of the leagues best set up man versus two old guys. No question
Winner: Red Sox
Rotation
James Shields v Josh Beckett
Beckett's career ERA+ is 116 versus Shields 114. Shields ERA+ is rising every year versus Beckett who can be amazing (2007- 145)or just his normal self (2008- 115). Josh Beckett can be amazing but Shields is younger and will probably be better than Beckett NEXT year.
Winner: Rays
Scott Kazmir v Jon Lester
Both are about the same age but Kazmir has two more years on Lester. Both essentially have the same ERA+. Kazmir edges Lester is K/BB ratio because he can strike out guys but Lester seems to be getting better and better every year and able to (unlike Kazmir) able to be a big game pitcher. It's for this that I barely give the edge to Lester
Winner: Red Sox
Matt Garza v Dice-K
Both essentially have been in the league the same amount of time and essentially have the same K/BB ratio. Dice-K strikes out a lot of guys but also walks a lot of guys. Garza steadily have had an ERA+ of 118 the past two year versus the streaky Dice-K- because in his first year he had an ERA+ of 108 but 159 last year! Dice-K is in his prime but Garza is younger. Because Dice-K can strike guys out and because he IS in his prime and has shown to be great (4th in Cy Young voting last year) and can be GREAT, I'm going to give this one to Dice-K, but another really close one
Winner: Red Sox
Andy Sonnanstine v Brad Penny
Penny has actually sucked in his overall stint in LA and Sonnanstine is young and should only get better. But last year is ERA was mid 4.00 with a 102 ERA+. But because he is younger and Penny last year SUUUUUCCKKKKEEDDD, the young guy beats the old dude.
Winner: Rays
David Price v John Smoltz
I question if both can finish the season next year. Last year in the playoffs Price was sick and his stuff looked amazing. On the other hand, when Smoltz was healthy, he was one of the best pitchers in the game. Smoltz actually doesn't have to pitch everyday and will be on a need by/ if-he-can-pitch basis. When he can't pitch, Tim Wakefield will pitch for him in that case Price will have the edge. But Price is too much of a wild card for me to pick him right now.
Winner: Red Sox
Totals:
Red Sox: 10
Rays: 5
I think the Red Sox have better players overall, are more experienced, have one of the best bullpen's in baseball, a deep rotation, a strong organization, a deep farm system, and a great GM that I have a hard time believing that the Red Sox won't make the playoffs
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17 comments:
I expected this from eckstein but not you sexyrexy. You sound like peter gammons sucking on the red sox titty.
Pena over Youk. far superior walk rate, 1 year older, 2008 GG, better iso, isnt a right hand hitter playing in fenway
you forgot grant balfour, who had a higher K/9 than marmol or dotel.
kazmir has put together 4 consecutive sub 4 era seasons and has greater than 1 career K per inning
john smoltz is 42 and wont pitch till june at best.
It's like you're from boston or something
Fuck you, you red sox biased mother fucker. Lemme break some crazy ass shit down for you
1) The Yankees did not "upgrade" their team this year. They replaced Giambi, Mussina, Abreu with AJ, CC and Tex. Not a huge upgrade in terms of replacement value.
2) Carlos Pena not only WALKS more than Youk, but also hits 2x as many homeruns annually. Youk won't even hit 25 HR this year. Pena, who has been great since his break out year in 2004 (minus the very injured two half season), is infinitely better in all ways than Pena except defense. You can't even make an argument for that shit with a straight face. You cannot look me in the fucking eye and say "I like a fat fucker who walks 20-30 times less and hits 10+ less home runs a season because billy beane gave him a cool nick name". Also, pena is 30 and far from old or out of his prime. Expect 30-40 HRs from him this year.
Winner, Rays
3) Iwamura has better plate discipline, which is much much more consistent year to year than Batting Average (pedroia doesnt walk much of anything). Both are quality defenders with minimal power, but Ped's got an age advantage
4) Jason barlett won't be the Ray's main SS. Their huge prospect was injured last season and has a lot of hype behind him. Considering both him and Lowrie have minimal experience, you can't even begin to fucking call this one for either side
5) Matt Joyce is a HUGE upside player with above average plate discipline, but more importantly the defensive speed and range to make him top notch in the field to go with a 20+ HR hitter. JD drew is old and inconsistent and an injury risk
Winner: Rays, as long as Joyce continues his success
6)Kazmir is better than Lester. Look at their fucking peripherals and projected FIPs/DIPs. I'll take 180 of Strikeout baseball over a guy who has marginal control and no K power
7) For reasons I wont argue now, there are other fucked up predictions in this.
Also, for the record, I think the best teams in the division are, in order:
Rays
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
Jays
Also, just so you know, Dice-K's inability to control his "sick stuff" is going to bite him hardcore this yr. He had an unusually high LOB% to go with his high BB rate.
In other words, Dice-K's season was pure luck
1) Carlos Pena has had one great season and that was in 2007. He has not had more than 490 ABs EVER and is not consistent year to year. Versus Kevin Youkilis who has just gotten better year after year after year.. Who the fuck cares about walks, it's the final OBS that's important. Pena OBS past 4 healthy years: .377, .411, .338, .332. This doesn't include 2006 (33 ABs) and 2005 (260 ABs) versus Youk (from 06 to 08): .381, .390, .390. Youk is far more consistent (and is above average while consistent), healthy, and plays better defense. Would it surprise if Pena has a better season that Youk? No. Do I think it was realistically happen? No. And you can't just discount, Eckstein, Pena's two season where he RECENTLY didn't play!
2) Who cares about ONE guy in the bullpen, Red Sox have a better overall bullpen
3) I said John Smoltz is better than Price when healthy but the time when Wakefield is in, Price gets the edge. June until October is still a significant amount of time to pitch. Plus, Price has pitched 14 innings in his CAREER. I know he's highly touted but how can you say, 100% that he'll pitch and pitch well over a 162 game season?
4) I think Boston has the better 2B. I think he's the reigning MVP or something. But Pedroia has the better OBS. Who the fuck cares how he gets on base year after year as long as he DOES. Why do I have to explain this people who claim they know baseball, if you get on base 37% of the time, WHO CARES HOW THAT HAPPENS! Maybe over time the higher walk rate will help Iwamura but next year Pedroia will most certainly be better. I can say this for sure and feel stupider for having to argue this fact about the reigning MVP!
5) I gave the Sox the edge in SS I think I had a disclaimer or something about how it IS hard to really distinguish. It's almost like your criticism of my point is something I already mentioned. And who fuck acres about a prospect? Once that player comes up and we can fully evaluate him. I'd trust a Red Sox prospect over a Rays one any day of the week. Plus, this Rays prospect IS NOT up yet. Either way, if you read my post it's clear to see that this is a lose/lose position. asshole.
6) Matt Joyce has absolu-fucking-ly no experience versus JD Drew coming off an amazing season. As you're previous post has shown, you're just a JD Drew hater so I'm just going to ignore everything you think about him
7) Kazmir may have that four year ERA stat but his career ERA+ is only 124 and Lester's his 123. Now it's really hard to judge between the two because Lester has essentially just developed last year and Kazmir has been good for a longer period of time. And if you wanna talk peripherals and DIPS, last year Lester had a DIPS of 3.73 and Kazmir's was 4.29. You have it in your mind that b/c Kazmir did so well so for long on in a shitty organization that you're so blinded that someone can actually be better than him. Plus last year Kazmir had an off year versus Lester's break out amazing year.
8)I can buy and accept your Dice-K argument and I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Garza will be better than Dice-K but each really only has two years too judge them off of. (Although according to ESPN.com, Dice-K is projected to have a better season that Garza). I still contend to Kazmir being better than Lester next year but for the sake of argument I'll say Kazmir is better. This means that the Red Sox lose two and the Rays gain two. The Red Sox still have the advantage in offense and bullpen but the Rays then will have an advantage in rotation. However, this advantage isn't by much and the Red Sox's rotation is deeper and more experienced than the Rays that I can confidently say the Red Sox will be better (assuming no freak injuries)
9) I said in the fucking beginning that yes I do think the Yankees will win but it's clear I wasn't confident. And even if you substitute Mussina for Burnett you still have C.C., Wang will be healthy, and Chamberlian will be more developed and a better starter that that rotation will be SO much better than last year. But I also mention so many flaws that this pick has and I said quote "this division is up for grabs"
10) If you want to have legitimacy as a blog post, you can't use vulgar language and be sophmorish in your rebuttals. At least the one time the Bright one does it it's not really personal but no reason to personalize these arguments and say things like "you red sox biased mother fucker. Lemme break some crazy ass shit down for you" I'm guilty of this in this rebuttal but that's because you piss me off so much you piece of shit, Eckstein. (Yes, I understand it looks bad that I just made myself a hypocrite because I feel I need to fight fire with fire and retaliate). Eckstein, you also need to read all of my posts, not just one thing, because it not only wasted time to have to rebuttal points I already said but it makes you look stupid.
Just for further reiteration on the 2B debate:
Predictions (for 2B):
1) Dustin Pedroia: .322 avg/ .372 OBS/ .478 SLG/ 15 HRS/ 16 SB
22) Akinori Iwamura: .259 avg/ .334 OBS/ .359 SLG/ 6 HRs/ 9 SB
I still can't believe I have to rebuttal my argument on this point
We also need to remember that real baseball isn't like fantasy baseball, because the whole is usually greater than the sum of the parts. So breaking it down position by position doesnt help much when there are 3 teams that are so close in talent. Just because you have the sox 10-5 over the rays doesnt equate to twice as many wins, or even 1.5 times as many wins. Also, it cant be overlooked that the sox and rays are both run by jews in the front office. Once the yanks judify their personal, they will start winning championships again.
And i agree, eckstein tends to be overly personal some times. I dont think he has agreed with a single this cubsfan4ever has every said. he could say that athletes breath oxygen to stay alive, and eckstein will refute, no you dumb ass mf, carbon dioxide is the way to go. It's been proven, by me, that CO2 gives you massive iso, so fuck you
Carlos Pena may not eclipse 500 ABs often, but he still walks 90+ times and hits 30+ HRs. Thats fucking incredible.
Secondly, you need to use that baseball prospectus subscription much more. OBS based on BA is so fucking inconsistent. you know Iwamura is going to post a 350+ OBS, even while hitting 270. If Dustin Pedroia's BA falls, to even 300, however, his obs falls below iwamura's level. The only thing Pedroia does well is steal bases efficiently
Furthermore, it should be made illegal to give the MVP to a guy who can't even fucking hit 30 HRS. Grady Sizemore was the best player in the american league last year; HELL, miggy and arod were better (despite slow start/missed month)
Projected FIP (same as DIPS, variable ratios almost 100% identical) for Kazmir and Lester by 3 different highly reknown projection systems (Bill James, CHONE, Marcel -- in that order)
Kazmir: 3.77,3.82,3.82
Lester: 4.07,4.25,3.95
Clearly there is a pattern of overwhelmingly expected regression for lester, while some bounceback for Kazmir predicted.
Regarding the Rays bullpen, they have two utter studs in Grant Balfour -- one of the best relievers in baseball last year -- and Chad Bradford, while JP Howell finally had his breakout year (projected FIP is around 3.3 for 2009).
On top of that, Dan Wheeler is a great lefties only guy who actually can get out righties, despite being like 50. They have a very strong pen and they just added Izzy, who if he bounces back, will solidify that back rotation and if not only cost the rays like 2 million.
Also, i wrote this post while watching the oscar last night and thus had much anger to channel.
I'll give you pedroia, but i seriously doubt the length of his success to last more than a few seasons if he doesnt learn to walk.
I agree that breaking down the teams position by position isn't probably the best way to go but I do think it's helpful. I still contend the Red Sox are better than the Rays though.
I think the Sox have a better offensive and I still contend their bullpen is better, especially the tail end of it. When you look at the best bullpens year after year it seems to be that only two stay consistent- Minnesota and Boston. The back end-the important 'end'- with Papelbon and Okajima is just so good that I give them the edge. The front of the Rays rotation is better than the Red Sox but the Sox had more experience and depth that I also give the edge to the Sox. OK, guys, I'll concede. Scott Kazmir is better than Jon Lester. But let's be honest here, it's really not by that big of a margin. Tampa's best really isn't that much better than Boston's. However, Boston has a better back end and they have guys like Wakefield, Buchholtz, and Masterson that if any of the starters get injured, these guys can do a damn fine job is replacement and that's something the Rays just don't have.
As for the 1B debate, did you guys forgot that Youk was 4th in AL OPS last yr behind ARod, Milton Bradley, and Quentin!? Youk walks, hits the ball well, and has power. He has a high BA and power to go along with his hits so he can get a crapload of XBH and he walks so he has a high OBS. And while Pena and Youk may be close to the same age, Pena has more wear and tear on him. Now if you take both guys in their prime, yes, Carlos Pena is clearly better. But with Pena's recent history, how can you look me in the eyes with a straight face and tell me Pena will be fully healthy and in his prime to be 2007 Pena? I just envisison too much Eric Hinske playing first because of Pena's injured history and I just don't see him having another 45+ HR season. In fact, it's hard to get 30+ HRs when you're injured, which Pena clearly seems to be. Plus, you see Youk's past numbers and immediately dismiss him, but he's getting better and better year single year he's been in the majors and there's reason to think he can't get more HRs. Yes Pena may be the better player healthy, but it's hard to give the Rays the 1B advantage when Eric Hinske get significant playing time
Yes Eckstein gets way too personal and emotion in his arguments, but lets be fair, is not agreeing with Cubsfan4evr really all THAT bad? I mean, the guy read Moneyball, says he believes in Moneyball, yes believes that everyone should bases. I mean come on, the guy defended Jimmy Rollins over Hanley Rameriz for NL MVP a few years ago.
And yes, I don't think Pedroia deserved the MVP last year but he legit deserved to be in the discussion is clearly one of the best 2B out there and WAYYYY better than Iwamura.
Oh I forgot, Joe Maddon doesn't believe in walking. What? I mean really, stats are just evil.
Also, for the 1B debate, I just re-read what I wrote, and I did say Youk won it by the slightest on margins. And I mean the slightest, slimmest, by the hair of his nostrils margin. And like I said before, it's only because I don't think Pena will play like he can.
Just wait till I do my write up of the AL east. The Red Sox are a great team and I believe to all criticism that Jason Bay is an upgrade to Manny (because of his age, similar skill set and ABOVE AVERAGE defense -- vs manny's cant play defense defense). Smoltz only makes their rotation better too, but like I said, I just think the Rays had better pieces to begin and that the addition of Pat Burrell, Maybin and Price will just make them more than marginally better than last yr.
i really get ticked when eckstein shows just how little he watches baseball and just memorises stats. first, cameron maybin plays for the marlins. this is like the third time i've had to point it out to you.
secondly, i'm not sure you know who dan wheeler is. Wheeler is not a loogy. Kinda because he throws right handed, and kinda cause lefties hit him better than righties. He's only 31 years old, and last year was the first in the past 4 that he had an era under 5.
also, how can you think the O's are better than the blue jays? Name me 3 pitchers on the O's who arnt washed up cubs?
Other than Halladay, the jays have NO ONE!
I'm impressed, this is the most comments I think we've had on a post. Good job guys!
And what happened to Jesse Listch, Shaun Marcum, and Dustin McGowan. Plus, the offense with Alex Rios, Rod Barajas, and Vernon Wells (along with David Eckstein) while granted is pretty awful though still better than oh wait no, the O's have:
Melvin Mora, Aubrey Huff, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts. You know, this offense isn't THAT bad. Although still won't make up for pitchers like Radhamas Liz.
Both the O's and the Blue Jays are pretty awful but you know what, the O's might have less shitty players than the Blue Jays
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