For some great information and resources to help you draft great in 09:
1. Fangraphs.com -- This website is functional, sortable, useful, statistically encompassing and most importantly, free. If you don't want pay, but want a comparable resource to Baseball Prospectus (which offers a season-long package for $20), this is your website. Everything from the basica sabermetrics -- BABIP, FB/GB, K/9, etc. -- to the advanced - FIP (similar to DIPS), Value Wins (similar to WARP, but based on position), UZR/150 (advanced range stat) -- is available at your fingertips. Fangraphs is complete with a glossary of terms and formulas to help explain their calculations and how to utilize the data effectively.
2. MockDraftCentral.com & ESPN.com's Mock Auction -- The best way to be prepared for something is to have done it in advance. You may want certain players this year, but unless you do a large enough sample size of mock drafts to verify you can get the player at the price and round you value him at, your strategy will fall short of effective. MDC offers free accounts which offer limited access to useful data such as real-time draft reports that analyze who goes where cumulatively (ie, A-Rod's average draft pick position is currently 2.78), while premium accounts give you it all (for $3/month). Despite the 3 drafts per week limits placed on free accounts at MDC, you can draft as many times as you want if you take over AI positions. ESPN.com offers a comparable, but inferior service that is more subject to have draft ditcher mid-mock and also features inferior rankings (based on experts, rather than real-time valuation by drafters)
3. RotoAuthority.com -- Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com puts together useful fantasy information on a daily basis that is free and much better than 90% of the shit written by Y! Sports and ESPN.
4. Google.com -- As ridiculous as this suggestion may sound, I am dead serious when I say "google shit." Do you want to know what the statistically average sustainable level of BABIP for a player is? Do you want to know how to calculate a specific player's future BABIP? If a "power hitter" has a GB/FB of 1.8, will he hit 25 home runs? Google that shit! You'll probably find an answer somewhere. If not, leave a question a forum at Fangraph or some other sabermetrics and fantasyball inclined site and you'll likely find an answer soon.
The answers to those questions, by the way, are:
1) .300
2) LD%+.120, if you want a quick estimate of current BABIP against a player's sustainable BABIP -- ldBABIP, however, can only really analyze past/current measures of BABIP and does not predict future BABIP very well. Look up xBABIP on fangraphs for something more in-depth and predictive.
3) 98% of the time, the answer is no. Expect him to top out around 10-15. Check out this article for more information on BABIP and GB rates.
5. Statistical Resource Guides -- Unsure of which stats consistently correlate highly from season to season? Curious about which scoring categories are more scarce than others? Are you looking for a crash course is basic statistical evaluation of fantasy players? This resource guide to hitters and this one for pitchers should be helpful, courtesy of MVN outsider.
6. My top 12 players list for 2009. Here is who I think should be taken (in order) in round 1 of every mock draft. You'd be wise to agree with me.
1. Hanley Ramirez (SS)
2. Alex Rodriguez (3B)
3. Albert Pujols (1B)
4. Jose Reyes (SS)
5. David Wright (3B)
6. Miguel Cabrera (1B) -- played 14 games at 3B in 2008. Make sure he qualifies at 3B in your league BEFORE you draft him as your 3B
7. Grady Sizemore (OF)
8. Ryan Braun (OF)
9. Ryan Howard (1B)
10. Jimmy Rollins (SS)
11. Chase Utley (2B)
12. Ian Kinsler (2B)
Happy Drafting!
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