The Rich Hill Trade

I am surprised there hasn’t been more controversy surrounding the Rich Hill trade. Personally I thought it was a terrible trade and shocked I didn’t read more disagreeing on it in the newspapers, blog’s, and on sports talk radio. I understand why Jim Hendry traded Rich Hill. He felt he had to because Rich Hill was out of options. Thus, if Rich Hill did not make the club out of spring training, he would have become a minor league free agent. This means any club could have signed him. Hendry didn’t just want to lose him, so he traded him to his current trading partner, his former boss…... Rich Hill was traded for a Player To Be Named Later. Depending on how he does with the Baltimore Orioles, will depend on the prospect we can choose from. The Orioles are hoping Rich Hill will revert back to his 2007 season and be an anchor in their rotation. If that happens they would have hit the jackpot. I don’t know who were in each pool of candidates the Cubs could pick from for The Player To Be Named Later, but if Rich Hill does go back to his 2007 form, it won’t be enough.

Rich Hill took a long time to develop in the minor leagues. He had control problems for many years, but once he figured it out he was a force. In his first full season as a starter in the major’s he made 32 starts where he went 11-8 with a 3.92 E.R.A pitching 195 innings allowing only 170 hits, 85 earned runs, and 27 homeruns. He only walked 63 batters and hit 12. That’s not too bad for someone who took years to get over his control problem. He did all this while striking out a Chicago Cubs high for the 2007 season in striking out 183 batters’ with his buckling curve ball.

Many people, including myself think Rich Hill’s control problem is mental. I recently read a good article at: http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/2009/01/rich-hill-trade-rumors-baltimore-orioles/ which talks about the Rich Hill trade. One thing it mentions is it does not think Rich Hill’s control problem is mental. They think it is something to do with his mechanic’s. Rich Hill does have nontraditional mechanics to get the grip he needs for his nasty curve ball. Check out the picture’s they show and let me know what you think about this theory.

The Cubs should have kept Rich Hill and see if he could have helped them. His trade value hit rocked bottom, I doubt even if he does well for Baltimore they will get enough in return. So they should have kept him and risked the chance of loosing him for nothing, but the risk could be worth the reward. I guess we will see how he does this season to see if I am right or not.

6 comments:

The 'Bright' One said...

Not that i'm a pitching expert, though i did destroy my shoulder pitching everyday growing up. the two pictures showing hill with the shoulder tilt, the first one he's throwing a fastball and the second is a curve. When you're not feeling good on the curve, you tend to 'dip' back and drop the shoulder a little more to get more rotation on the curve ball. That's my analysis from personal experience.

David "MVP" Eckstein said...

Hendry didn't trade hill bc he felt he "had to" -- he simply wanted to add roster flexibility by clearing out prospects he had had enough of. Hill, Pie and Cedeno have been around for over half a decade and haven't been able to show themselves as anything more than AAAA players (other than Hill, who had a quality but somewhat lucky 2007 campaign (based on FIP analysis))

Specifically regarding Hill, my assumption is that if Hill is good and the O's arent in the race for october (which they probably won't be, given NYY, BOS and the Ray's new rosters), the "player to be named later" will be rich hill. This basically gives the cubs roster flexibility in that we can allow rich hill to work out his mechanical problems elsewhere and still have reasonable access back to him if he's any good. If he continues to suck, oh well, at least we cleared a roster space.

David "MVP" Eckstein said...

Both CHONE and Marcel project Hill's FIP to be north of 4.3. With the right defense behind him, that equates to a predictable ERA of somewhere between 4.0 and 4.3.

However, it's nothing to get excited for, even with the K/BB rates he has

David "MVP" Eckstein said...

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4806&position=P

\for reference/

Cubsfan4evr said...

I think it is mental. We have seen many pitchers struggle because of control. Andy Pratt was one minor leaguer lefty who reminds me a lot of Hill.

Hendry wanted to save face by trading him. Otherwise he would of see if he had anything left and could help the club. We gain nothing by dumping him unless the PTBNL is Roberts or Markasis

David "MVP" Eckstein said...

Again, the PTBNL will be rich hill if he's any good. mark my words