Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus has come out with his win-loss predictions for the upcoming season. Considering he was dead on the money in predicting electoral college votes during the national election, I think we can simply bypass the regular season and jump straight into the division series. Looks like it will be the Braves sweeping the Cubs this year
American League, ranked by projected 2009 record
East | W | L | RS | RA | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||||
Boston Red Sox | 98 | 64 | 864 | 684 | .269 | .347 | .433 | ||||
New York Yankees | 97 | 65 | 838 | 674 | .267 | .341 | .424 | ||||
Tampa Bay Rays | 92 | 70 | 838 | 715 | .256 | .338 | .421 | ||||
Toronto Blue Jays | 81 | 81 | 730 | 692 | .254 | .319 | .403 | ||||
Baltimore Orioles | 76 | 86 | 858 | 898 | .269 | .338 | .435 | ||||
Central | W | L | RS | RA | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||||
Cleveland Indians | 84 | 78 | 824 | 819 | .260 | .337 | .423 | ||||
Minnesota Twins | 79 | 83 | 769 | 802 | .266 | .329 | .397 | ||||
Detroit Tigers | 78 | 84 | 796 | 844 | .259 | .329 | .425 | ||||
Kansas City Royals | 75 | 87 | 747 | 813 | .263 | .323 | .407 | ||||
Chicago White Sox | 74 | 88 | 763 | 839 | .250 | .319 | .419 | ||||
West | W | L | RS | RA | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||||
Oakland Athletics | 82 | 80 | 799 | 798 | .251 | .335 | .410 | ||||
Los Angeles Angels | 79 | 83 | 738 | 758 | .258 | .319 | .403 | ||||
Texas Rangers | 73 | 89 | 812 | 912 | .263 | .328 | .432 | ||||
Seattle Mariners | 70 | 92 | 725 | 835 | .260 | .318 | .403 |
National League, ranked by projected 2009 record
East | W | L | RS | RA | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||||||
New York Mets | 93 | 69 | 833 | 713 | .264 | .339 | .417 | ||||||
Atlanta Braves | 88 | 74 | 818 | 742 | .271 | .342 | .416 | ||||||
Philadelphia Phillies | 88 | 74 | 837 | 756 | .264 | .337 | .431 | ||||||
Washington Nationals | 77 | 85 | 780 | 808 | .261 | .335 | .410 | ||||||
Florida Marlins | 74 | 88 | 767 | 819 | .253 | .325 | .423 | ||||||
Central | W | L | RS | RA | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||||||
Chicago Cubs | 95 | 67 | 865 | 751 | .271 | .346 | .433 | ||||||
Milwaukee Brewers | 83 | 79 | 822 | 808 | .260 | .334 | .434 | ||||||
St. Louis Cardinals | 80 | 82 | 776 | 784 | .257 | .330 | .420 | ||||||
Cincinnati Reds | 79 | 83 | 779 | 798 | .263 | .329 | .416 | ||||||
Houston Astros | 66 | 96 | 708 | 851 | .256 | .318 | .404 | ||||||
Pittsburgh Pirates | 65 | 97 | 719 | 887 | .255 | .321 | .406 | ||||||
West | W | L | RS | RA | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||||||
Arizona Diamondbacks | 90 | 72 | 816 | 733 | .261 | .334 | .432 | ||||||
Los Angeles Dodgers | 84 | 78 | 760 | 741 | .265 | .331 | .397 | ||||||
San Francisco Giants | 79 | 83 | 703 | 718 | .262 | .319 | .399 | ||||||
Colorado Rockies | 78 | 84 | 827 | 862 | .266 | .340 | .431 | ||||||
San Diego Padres | 74 | 88 | 706 | 763 | .251 | .324 | .399 |
Copyright © 1996-2009 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.
2 comments:
I find it hard to believe that with the Angels pitching staff they go under .500 and the Cubs win 95 after giving away a lot of the good players like DeRosa and Wood and not really adding anybody. While I think they're going to win their division, I don't think they'll do it with 95 wins. And the Brewers lose Sheets AND Sabathia and they win 85 games, I doubt it.
There's something very sketchy about this list.
Also, Nate Silver used election poll results to predict the winner. Not hard to predict the winner when you ask people how they're going to vote before they vote. In the world of Political Science we consider that cheating
You wanna know why? Because DeRosa was replaced by a guy who walks just as much, if not more and Fontenot takes over at 2B, adding comparable power (20 HR potential). So offensively, not a ton is lost. Pitching wise, all that was lost is a top closer, replaced by a second tier closer. This is reflected by a 2-3 WARP downgrade in how the pythag. prediction deflated from 97 to 95 wins.
The angels, on the other hand, have nobody besides Vlad and Abreu who get on base. Reggie Willits does, but see limited ABs in the OF.
Brewers win 85 bc the central sucks.
Also, Sox at the bottom
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