My name is David "MVP" Eckstein, and I'm a Verlandaholic. Before I really paid attention to sabermetrics, I used to draft Verlander high. I've been clean for about a year now, but I'm tempted to relapse. Help me.
In 2006, I touted him as being second to only Lirano among new pitchers. His consistently high 90s fastball and mid 70s curveball were a recipe for nasty domination. The result of his stuff was some quality strikeouts, average control and slight groundball tendencies. Since his debut, however, Verlander's walk rate has increased, his worm burning tendencies have declined and his fastball slowly, but steadily lost 2.5 MPH in velocity. Entering this season, Verlander's FIP has only been below 4.00 once -- in 2007, his breakout year, when it was 3.99 -- in his entire career. Despite playing in front of a laughably poor defense, Verlander consistently outperformed his FIP from 2006-2007. Realizing this, I avoided him in 2008 -- and was rewarded for my abstinence. Verlander posted a 4.84 ERA over 201+ IP, his K rate slipped a full K lower than it was in 2007 and a career low in WHIP (1.4).
But all was not as terrible as one would think. In 2008, Verlander's peripherals -- GB/FB rate aside -- all increased over his 2006 levels. Verlander's K rate was a full strikeout per nine higher than his 2006 level and his home run per nine rate has falled from 1.02 per nine to .89 per nine to .81 per nine. Even though Verlander was giving up less groundballs, he was increasing his infield fly ball rate by a large margin (it almost doubled). The result of Verlander's 2008 campaign was his second best career FIP -- 4.18, a full 2/3 of a run lower than his ERA.
This season, Verlander's fastball velocity is back to its 2005/2006 level (95.3 MPH) and his strikeout rate is back up (above) his 2007 level. While I wouldn't expect Verlander to continue to strike out 10+ guys per nine, he's shown that he has the stuff to sustainably strikeout somewhere between 8 and 9 per nine over the course of a 200+ inning season. Verlander's GB/FB is also down, but his pitch selection remains largely unchanged from the past two seasons, so even with some downturn, it's unlikely that it was sustainably have halved over the course of one season. Furthermore, most of the groundballs Verlander used to give up have been converted into infield fly balls (up 5% over last season). His HR/9 is a bit higher than last season -- but still below league average -- but that may be the result of his first outing, in which he gave up a gopher ball that knocked him out of the game before the end of the 4th inning.
Verlander's Walk Rate currently sits at 2.9 walks per nine, slightly below his career average, but right in line with his 2006-2007 numbers. Verlander has only once (last season) walked more than 3 per nine in his career. To expect a persistent 33% regression in one's control is rare (well, tell that to Rick Ankiel, Rich Hill, Daniel Cabrera...). From 2005 to 2007, Verlander's control (K/BB) increased from 1.4 to 2.07 to 2.73. And though his control regressed a bit in 2008 (to 1.87), it currently sits at a robust 3.78. I wouldn't expect a 3+ K/BB to persists, but a mid 2's -- somwhere between his 2006 and 2007 levels -- is very reasonable.
Justin Verlander currently stands as the most unfortunate pitcher in baseball. His FIP-ERA splits are the worst in the league (his FIP is 3.22, his ERA is 6.75) thanks to a .408 BABIP (Verlander's career BABIP is .303) and 50.3 LOB% (league average is 72%). He's also only 25 years old, so making gains in his control and ability at this point in his career is quite reasonable. PECTOA issued Verlander a 27% breakout rate and 60% improve rate this season, matched against 11% attrition and 11% collapse rate.
Taking note of all of this, I think I'm ready to drink the Verlander juice and buy low. Are you?
Showing posts with label Worm Burning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Worm Burning. Show all posts
Five Up, Five Down
Today, I'm going to look at five pitchers who are primed to increase in value this season and five guys who you can expect some serious regression from.
FIVE UP
1. Javier Vazquez
A combination of his lack of success in the AL (minus 2007) in recent years matched against his great peripherals make him unfairly undervalued. Despite posting a FIP of 3.86 or lower each of the past 3 seasons, the absolutely TERRIBLE defense of the Chicago White Sox helped to inflate Javvy's ERA to 4.84, 3.73 and 4.67 over that time frame. Last year, Vazquez struck out 8.64 guys per nine, walked 2.64 per nine and gave up a little over a home run per game (1.08 HR/9), good for a very solid 3.74 FIP. Vazquez's 68.3 LOB% also contributed heavily to an inflated ERA last year. In short, Vazquez's move away from the HR friendly Cell, defensive challenged White Sox and stronger hitting AL to the defensively strong Braves and pitcher-who-bats NL should only make him a top 10 guy in 2009.
2. Jonathan Sanchez
Sanchez is a guy who gets a bad rep due to high ERA/FIP splits and bad luck. Jonathan Sanchez may have a below average defense behind him this year, but his 3.85/5.01 FIP/ERA split in 2008 calls for some extreme regression. In 250 big league innings, Sanchez has struck out 252 guys. Fangraph notes that "batters swung and missed at 10.9% of Sanchez’s pitches, the 9th highest total in baseball." This, combined with a 67.5 LOB% in 2008 tell me that Sanchez is bound to improve.
3. Josh Beckett
After two consecutive season of 200+ IP, the injury bug again bit Beckett, limiting him to a serviceable 27 starts, 175 IP. His ERA was 4.03, but the FIP was a sparkling 3.24. Beckett's K rate has been increasing since 2006, while his BB rate has declined over that same period. Boston had a top 5 defensive team last year and Beckett had an average 71.3 LOB%, so what was the problem? As his -0.92 clutch rating (a fangraphs metric that compares a player's performance in high leverage situations to performance in low leverage situations) highlights, Josh Beckett allowed a majority of his walks and extra-base hits in situations when runners were in scoring position. Despite Beckett's tendency to be slightly unclutchy on the Red Sox, there's absolutely no reason to think that this extreme unclutchiness will continue in 2009. Simply put, all signs point to a return to great success for Josh Beckett next year.
4. Derek Lowe
This extreme groundballer is second only to Brandon Webb when it came to burning worms last year. Despite his four years of success in Dodgers Stadium, there is arguably room for improvement (despite Lowe's increasing age). Groundballers tend to be more reliant on the defense of the infield behind them to keep their numbers good. One would assume, using FIP as the breakever point, that a pitcher on a team with a good defensive infield would outperform their FIP, while one a defensively challenged team would underperform their FIP. According to fangraphs data, the Dodgers infield last year combined to be -32.3 fielding runs below average, while the Braves infield was worth a positive 2.5 fielding runs above average (Kelly Johnson's limited range kind of took down the team's total defensive value by being -9.0 Fielding Runs below average last year, but was similtaneously slightly above average when it came to not making errors). So while Derek Lowe negligibly underperformed his FIP in each of his four years on the Dodgers except 2005 (his FIP/ERA splits between 2005 and 2008 were 4.16/3.61, 3.68/3.63, 3.97/3.88 and 3.26/3.24), you have to expect a favorably larger FIP/ERA split going forward for the 35 year old ex-closer whose lack of K's is subsidized by superior control (2.60+ K/BB as a starter) and a lack of home runs (.65 HR/9 as a starter). If nothing more, expect Derek Lowe to continue to post an ERA around/below 3.6 and a solid WHIP in the 1.2 range over 200ish innings.
5. Andrew Miller
Going back to the "quality pitchers who get a bad rap due to poor FIP/ERA splits" theme, Andrew Miller was the most unfortunate victim of bad luck amongst all major leaguers last season. Despite increasing his K rate and decreasing both his walk and home run rates in each of the past three seasons, Andrew Miller's ERA has risen each year. His FIP/ERA splits since 2006 are 5.47/6.10, 5.27/5.63 and 4.00/5.87. A lot of this is due to the fact that both the Marlins and Tigers rank amongst the league's worst defensive teams, but how much of Andrew Miller's league leading +1.87 F-E (FIP-ERA) ratio should persist next year? Miller has a great arm that is primed for a breakout season if he finds shelter on a friendlier team. Even on the Marlins, we should expect a sharp decline in ERA from Andrew Miller next season, hopefully to a fantasy relevant range.
FIVE DOWN
1. Johan Santana
Each of the past two seasons have seen a sharp decline in Santana's once unquestionably dominate peripherals. After averageing a FIP of 3.03 between 2002 and 2006, Santana has seen his FIP rise to 3.81 and 3.51 over the past two seasons, as his strike out rate has fallen and walk rate risen. Santana's career best 2.53 ERA was largely the by-product of ridiculously lucky 82.6 LOB% (over 10% above league average) and a defensively awesome defense (sixth best in the league at converting balls in play into outs). Santana, who struck out less than 9 guys per nine (7.91 per nine to be exact) for the first time since 2001, is bound to bounce back some in his strike out rate from last season (the projection systems on fangraphs see it landing somewhere in the upper 8's per nine range), but Santana's declining numbers indicate that he may be on the decline and is certainly no longer worth an automatic first round pick (and certainly not a pick above Tim Lincecum, who despite his injury potential, posted an ERA/FIP split of exactly zero). Johan Santana has achieved almost all that we can expect from him and thus presents little, if any, upside (and a lot of downside) at pick #16. Santana's just a brand name, at the point, and I strongly suggest you avoid paying that premium.
2. Gavin Floyd
One of the many reasons that the outlook for the 2009 White Sox is so grim is that much of the team's success derived from a great pitching core that outperformed its peripherals. Gavin Floyd posted a quality 3.87 ERA, despite a 4.77 FIP that resulted in a mediocre 6.32 K/9 rate and hellish 1.31 HR/9 rate. As a flyball pitcher in the home run friendly US Cellular Field, the projection systems on fangraphs sees Floyd's HR/9 rate increasing to the 1.4 or even 1.5 per nine range, while projecting a 10% decline in his control (from 2.07 K/BB to the 1.8 K/BB range). Even if Gavin Floyd didn't regress to the 5.00 FIP range next year, you'd have to expect a sharp rise in ERA for the sophomore hurler who was just handed a four-year contract.
3. Armando Galaragga
Like Gavin Floyd, Armando Galaragga is a flyball pitcher who got incredibly lucky last year. His ridiculously low .250 BABIP helped mask his poor 4.88 FIP with a quality 3.73 ERA. Tigers fans who expect a repeat performance from the man who gave up 1.4 HR/9 and struck out a mere 6.53 per nine are going to be in for some severe disappointment. Even if Galaragga maintains his 2.07 K/BB and decreased his HR/9 rate, you've still got to worry about the effects of the very below average defense of the Tigers on Galaragga's numbers. To say the least, the outlook for Armando Galaragga is bleak.
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K still struck out a lot of guys last year, but his numbers indicate some impending regression. In 2008, Dice-K upped his walk rate by 1.5 guys per nine and decreased his K rate by from 8.84 K/8 to 8.27 K/9. At the same time, Dice-K almost halved his HR/9, while neither increasing his GB rate nor decreasing his FB rate -- meaning the downturn was probably a fluke rather than an increase in skill. Furthermore, Dice-K's 18% line drive rate says that his .267 BABIP of 2008 is bound to regress somewhere towards the .290-.300 range. Dice-K's FIP/ERA split last season was 4.03/2.90, and while Boston had a great defense last season (fifth in defensive efficiency), it wasn't and isn't good enough to reasonably sustain a 1.03 F-E. In 2009, I fully expect Dice-K's ERA to be closer to his 2007 numbers than those of last season -- those free passes are going to come back to bite him big time.
5. Joe Saunders
Despite a 91 MPH fastball and above average control (2.41 BB/9), there is much to not like about Saunders (such as his anemic 4.68 K/9 rate and ridiculously low .267 BABIP). Last year, despite posting an average 4.36 FIP and barely 100 Ks to go with 200 innings of work, Joe Saunders put up ace-quality numbers with a 3.41 ERA and 17 Wins. Unfortunately for Halos fans and Saunders, his above average control and average home run rates can't overcome his 30% below average strikeout rate. Saunders is no Greg Maddux.
TWO GUYS WHO COULD GO EITHER WAY
1. Justin Duchscherer
I love me some "Doosher", but his 2009 season could go either way. On one hand, Duchscherer is an injury prone 31 year old with a 3.69/2.54 FIP/ERA split. On the other hand, a 3.69 FIP is nothing to scoff at and the Oakland A's were one of the game's top defensive teams last year (fourth in defensive efficiency). Despite a below average K rate, Doosher's stellar control (2.16 BB/9) and lack of longballs (.70 HR/9) make him a candidate for continued, although comparatively diminished, success. I would expect a mid 3 ERA from Duchscherer to go along with a limited innings load in 2009 (he's starting the first six weeks of the season on the DL).
2. Andy Pettite
Despite posting an ERA north of 4.00 in each of the past two seasons, Andy Pettite's FIP has been below 3.90 (3.71 FIP in 2008) in each of those seasons. Pettite's inflated ERA has largely been due to the extremely poor defensive abilities of guys like Derek Jeter Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu in the field. With Abreu, Giambi and even Matsui out of the field and the addition of Mark Teixeira (+10.7 fielding runs above average last year), you have to expect some improvement in the ability of the Yankee's defense. On the other hand, both Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter's defense are on a rapid decline, while A-Rod hip may hinder his range when he returns. In short, whether or not the Yankee's defense as a whole will significantly improve this year is questionable and Pettite's FIP/ERA splits seem dependant on where the defensive coin toss lands. There's no reason to expect a poor (above 4) FIP or significant downturn in IP from Pettite this year, however.
FIVE UP
1. Javier Vazquez
A combination of his lack of success in the AL (minus 2007) in recent years matched against his great peripherals make him unfairly undervalued. Despite posting a FIP of 3.86 or lower each of the past 3 seasons, the absolutely TERRIBLE defense of the Chicago White Sox helped to inflate Javvy's ERA to 4.84, 3.73 and 4.67 over that time frame. Last year, Vazquez struck out 8.64 guys per nine, walked 2.64 per nine and gave up a little over a home run per game (1.08 HR/9), good for a very solid 3.74 FIP. Vazquez's 68.3 LOB% also contributed heavily to an inflated ERA last year. In short, Vazquez's move away from the HR friendly Cell, defensive challenged White Sox and stronger hitting AL to the defensively strong Braves and pitcher-who-bats NL should only make him a top 10 guy in 2009.
2. Jonathan Sanchez
Sanchez is a guy who gets a bad rep due to high ERA/FIP splits and bad luck. Jonathan Sanchez may have a below average defense behind him this year, but his 3.85/5.01 FIP/ERA split in 2008 calls for some extreme regression. In 250 big league innings, Sanchez has struck out 252 guys. Fangraph notes that "batters swung and missed at 10.9% of Sanchez’s pitches, the 9th highest total in baseball." This, combined with a 67.5 LOB% in 2008 tell me that Sanchez is bound to improve.
3. Josh Beckett
After two consecutive season of 200+ IP, the injury bug again bit Beckett, limiting him to a serviceable 27 starts, 175 IP. His ERA was 4.03, but the FIP was a sparkling 3.24. Beckett's K rate has been increasing since 2006, while his BB rate has declined over that same period. Boston had a top 5 defensive team last year and Beckett had an average 71.3 LOB%, so what was the problem? As his -0.92 clutch rating (a fangraphs metric that compares a player's performance in high leverage situations to performance in low leverage situations) highlights, Josh Beckett allowed a majority of his walks and extra-base hits in situations when runners were in scoring position. Despite Beckett's tendency to be slightly unclutchy on the Red Sox, there's absolutely no reason to think that this extreme unclutchiness will continue in 2009. Simply put, all signs point to a return to great success for Josh Beckett next year.
4. Derek Lowe
This extreme groundballer is second only to Brandon Webb when it came to burning worms last year. Despite his four years of success in Dodgers Stadium, there is arguably room for improvement (despite Lowe's increasing age). Groundballers tend to be more reliant on the defense of the infield behind them to keep their numbers good. One would assume, using FIP as the breakever point, that a pitcher on a team with a good defensive infield would outperform their FIP, while one a defensively challenged team would underperform their FIP. According to fangraphs data, the Dodgers infield last year combined to be -32.3 fielding runs below average, while the Braves infield was worth a positive 2.5 fielding runs above average (Kelly Johnson's limited range kind of took down the team's total defensive value by being -9.0 Fielding Runs below average last year, but was similtaneously slightly above average when it came to not making errors). So while Derek Lowe negligibly underperformed his FIP in each of his four years on the Dodgers except 2005 (his FIP/ERA splits between 2005 and 2008 were 4.16/3.61, 3.68/3.63, 3.97/3.88 and 3.26/3.24), you have to expect a favorably larger FIP/ERA split going forward for the 35 year old ex-closer whose lack of K's is subsidized by superior control (2.60+ K/BB as a starter) and a lack of home runs (.65 HR/9 as a starter). If nothing more, expect Derek Lowe to continue to post an ERA around/below 3.6 and a solid WHIP in the 1.2 range over 200ish innings.
5. Andrew Miller
Going back to the "quality pitchers who get a bad rap due to poor FIP/ERA splits" theme, Andrew Miller was the most unfortunate victim of bad luck amongst all major leaguers last season. Despite increasing his K rate and decreasing both his walk and home run rates in each of the past three seasons, Andrew Miller's ERA has risen each year. His FIP/ERA splits since 2006 are 5.47/6.10, 5.27/5.63 and 4.00/5.87. A lot of this is due to the fact that both the Marlins and Tigers rank amongst the league's worst defensive teams, but how much of Andrew Miller's league leading +1.87 F-E (FIP-ERA) ratio should persist next year? Miller has a great arm that is primed for a breakout season if he finds shelter on a friendlier team. Even on the Marlins, we should expect a sharp decline in ERA from Andrew Miller next season, hopefully to a fantasy relevant range.
FIVE DOWN
1. Johan Santana
Each of the past two seasons have seen a sharp decline in Santana's once unquestionably dominate peripherals. After averageing a FIP of 3.03 between 2002 and 2006, Santana has seen his FIP rise to 3.81 and 3.51 over the past two seasons, as his strike out rate has fallen and walk rate risen. Santana's career best 2.53 ERA was largely the by-product of ridiculously lucky 82.6 LOB% (over 10% above league average) and a defensively awesome defense (sixth best in the league at converting balls in play into outs). Santana, who struck out less than 9 guys per nine (7.91 per nine to be exact) for the first time since 2001, is bound to bounce back some in his strike out rate from last season (the projection systems on fangraphs see it landing somewhere in the upper 8's per nine range), but Santana's declining numbers indicate that he may be on the decline and is certainly no longer worth an automatic first round pick (and certainly not a pick above Tim Lincecum, who despite his injury potential, posted an ERA/FIP split of exactly zero). Johan Santana has achieved almost all that we can expect from him and thus presents little, if any, upside (and a lot of downside) at pick #16. Santana's just a brand name, at the point, and I strongly suggest you avoid paying that premium.
2. Gavin Floyd
One of the many reasons that the outlook for the 2009 White Sox is so grim is that much of the team's success derived from a great pitching core that outperformed its peripherals. Gavin Floyd posted a quality 3.87 ERA, despite a 4.77 FIP that resulted in a mediocre 6.32 K/9 rate and hellish 1.31 HR/9 rate. As a flyball pitcher in the home run friendly US Cellular Field, the projection systems on fangraphs sees Floyd's HR/9 rate increasing to the 1.4 or even 1.5 per nine range, while projecting a 10% decline in his control (from 2.07 K/BB to the 1.8 K/BB range). Even if Gavin Floyd didn't regress to the 5.00 FIP range next year, you'd have to expect a sharp rise in ERA for the sophomore hurler who was just handed a four-year contract.
3. Armando Galaragga
Like Gavin Floyd, Armando Galaragga is a flyball pitcher who got incredibly lucky last year. His ridiculously low .250 BABIP helped mask his poor 4.88 FIP with a quality 3.73 ERA. Tigers fans who expect a repeat performance from the man who gave up 1.4 HR/9 and struck out a mere 6.53 per nine are going to be in for some severe disappointment. Even if Galaragga maintains his 2.07 K/BB and decreased his HR/9 rate, you've still got to worry about the effects of the very below average defense of the Tigers on Galaragga's numbers. To say the least, the outlook for Armando Galaragga is bleak.
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dice-K still struck out a lot of guys last year, but his numbers indicate some impending regression. In 2008, Dice-K upped his walk rate by 1.5 guys per nine and decreased his K rate by from 8.84 K/8 to 8.27 K/9. At the same time, Dice-K almost halved his HR/9, while neither increasing his GB rate nor decreasing his FB rate -- meaning the downturn was probably a fluke rather than an increase in skill. Furthermore, Dice-K's 18% line drive rate says that his .267 BABIP of 2008 is bound to regress somewhere towards the .290-.300 range. Dice-K's FIP/ERA split last season was 4.03/2.90, and while Boston had a great defense last season (fifth in defensive efficiency), it wasn't and isn't good enough to reasonably sustain a 1.03 F-E. In 2009, I fully expect Dice-K's ERA to be closer to his 2007 numbers than those of last season -- those free passes are going to come back to bite him big time.
5. Joe Saunders
Despite a 91 MPH fastball and above average control (2.41 BB/9), there is much to not like about Saunders (such as his anemic 4.68 K/9 rate and ridiculously low .267 BABIP). Last year, despite posting an average 4.36 FIP and barely 100 Ks to go with 200 innings of work, Joe Saunders put up ace-quality numbers with a 3.41 ERA and 17 Wins. Unfortunately for Halos fans and Saunders, his above average control and average home run rates can't overcome his 30% below average strikeout rate. Saunders is no Greg Maddux.
TWO GUYS WHO COULD GO EITHER WAY
1. Justin Duchscherer
I love me some "Doosher", but his 2009 season could go either way. On one hand, Duchscherer is an injury prone 31 year old with a 3.69/2.54 FIP/ERA split. On the other hand, a 3.69 FIP is nothing to scoff at and the Oakland A's were one of the game's top defensive teams last year (fourth in defensive efficiency). Despite a below average K rate, Doosher's stellar control (2.16 BB/9) and lack of longballs (.70 HR/9) make him a candidate for continued, although comparatively diminished, success. I would expect a mid 3 ERA from Duchscherer to go along with a limited innings load in 2009 (he's starting the first six weeks of the season on the DL).
2. Andy Pettite
Despite posting an ERA north of 4.00 in each of the past two seasons, Andy Pettite's FIP has been below 3.90 (3.71 FIP in 2008) in each of those seasons. Pettite's inflated ERA has largely been due to the extremely poor defensive abilities of guys like Derek Jeter Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu in the field. With Abreu, Giambi and even Matsui out of the field and the addition of Mark Teixeira (+10.7 fielding runs above average last year), you have to expect some improvement in the ability of the Yankee's defense. On the other hand, both Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter's defense are on a rapid decline, while A-Rod hip may hinder his range when he returns. In short, whether or not the Yankee's defense as a whole will significantly improve this year is questionable and Pettite's FIP/ERA splits seem dependant on where the defensive coin toss lands. There's no reason to expect a poor (above 4) FIP or significant downturn in IP from Pettite this year, however.
