Showing posts with label Fantasy Football Advice. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fantasy Football Advice. Show all posts

The PPR Fallacy

"Why would anyone want Michael Turner? He doesn't catch any passes."
This was said to me by David "MVP" Eckstein after Game of Inches held their annual fantasy football draft- this year being a PPR league. In some fairness to DME, he has never played fantasy football in his life and this was his first real draft. However, he is not the only one to share this underlying sentiment. I have gotten questions and emails along the same lines for the same reasons why DME asked his question. The real question is, how do you evaluate players in a PPR league who does not catch any passes?

Last year Michael Turner only caught 12 passes. Clearly, if Michael Tuner is coming out of the backfield, it is to run with the ball. If he steps in front if his line, it is to block, not catch. In a PPR (points per reception) his value is severely hurt.

But here is the fallacy that people get too caught up with: just because a player does not catch many passes does not mean he is a bad player. All that means is you have to adjust the value you assign to a player who does not catch passes accordingly. While it is true that you gain an extra point when a player catches the ball, you still get points for rushing/receiving yards and points for touchdowns. I feel like this concept gets lost when people think of PPR leagues.

Going back specifically to Michael Turner. While DME didn't realize this, I was the one who drafted Michael Turner. The reason for this was two fold: 1) Arian Forster, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, and Steven Jackson were all off the board and I needed a #1 running back and 2) I paid less for Turner in this league than I would have in a non-PPR league. I paid less for Michael Turner in a PPR league and paid for his appropriate market price.

The key to ranking and getting players who do not catch passes in a PPR league is to rank them accordingly. The best way to do this is by creating your own personal ranking in a non-PPR format and then move guys who catch passes up a few spots and use pass catchers as a tie-breaker.

I got both Matt Forte and Michael Turner in this league. Matt Forte is a pass catcher and has a boost in his value in a PPR league because of this. That being said, I paid $51 for Michael Turner and only $33 for Forte. I paid $18 more for a non-pass catcher than a good pass catcher, and I believe that is fair and appropriate. While Forte will catch way more passes than Turner, I think Turner will have far superior rushing yards and touchdowns than Forte.

The point I am trying to make here is that do not overreact when if you are in a PPR league or in any league that uses non-standard/normal scoring. Absolutely look at how your league scores and absolutely factor that into your personal rankings, but don't look at the non-standard scoring in a vacuum. Take ALL the ways a player can get you points, not just the one, non-standard way. So if you are in a PPR league, you absolutely need to factor pass catchers into your rankings, but don't overlook the ways players that said player can get you points.

A 2011 Experts League Roster Listing




Who Gives The Best Fantasy Football Advice?

Besides Game of Inches of course.

In all seriousness, there are so many blogs and sites giving away fantasy football advice like Planned Parenthood gives out condoms. However, sometimes you get what you pay for. Sometimes you should have spent the extra fifteen bucks and bought Trojans from Walgreens instead out trusting the handful you got from PP. Sometimes it works out to be cheap. So out of the many sites that exist, which site works best?

Well two great friends of GOI (FFSpin and Fantasy Pros) have tried to answer that very same question.

FFSpin has partnered with Fantasy Focus Crystal Ball to determine which sites did the best job ranking players. You can see their results every Wednesday at the Fantasy Joe's section at USA Today. They determined that the top five websites for giving out fantasy advice in 2009 were:

1. Yahoo!
2. KFFL
3. FFCafe
4. FFToday
5. FFToolbox

Fantasy Pros has an accuracy page where they rank each individual fantasy sports writer's predictions and how they did per positions every week. They also ranked how the individual fantasy sports writers did last year. Besides clicking on the link to see the full results, here is a brief overview of their results:

Overall
1. Andy Behrens – Yahoo! Sports
2. Pat Fitzmaurice – Pro Football Weekly
3. Brandon Funston – Yahoo! Sports
4. Gregg Rosenthal – Rotoworld
5. David Dodds – FootballGuys

Running Backs
1. David Dodds – FootballGuys
2. Sigmund Bloom – FootballGuys
3. R.J. White – FanHouse
4. Pat Fitzmaurice – Pro Football Weekly
5. Erik Kuselias – ESPN

Wide Receiver
1. Brandon Funston – Yahoo! Sports
2. Gregg Rosenthal – Rotoworld
3. Pat Fitzmaurice – Pro Football Weekly
4. Andy Behrens – Yahoo! Sports
5. Scott Pianowski – Yahoo! Sports

Quarterback
1. Brandon Funston – Yahoo! Sports
2. Andy Behrens – Yahoo! Sports
3. Scott Pianowski – Yahoo! Sports
4. Gregg Rosenthal – Rotoworld
5. Staff – FantasyFootball.com

Tight Ends
1. Gregg Rosenthal – Rotoworld
2. Staff – FFToolbox
3. Eric Karabell – ESPN
4. Scott Engel – RotoExperts
5. Brad Evans – Yahoo! Sports

So overall who gave the best fantasy football advice in 2009? Yahoo! Whodathunkit. This year I'm putting myself in the running to see how well I stack up to these so called "experts".