Why Wild Card Weekend Was A Bad Weekend For The Packers

Of course the Green Bay Packers who rightfully earned the #1 seed in the NFC did not play last weekend as they rested during their bye week. They are still in the playoffs. However, the worst case scenario happened last weekend. The two NFC teams that won their playoff game- the New Orleans Saints and the New York Giants- are the two teams that can have a chance at defeating Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions are good match ups for the Packers. While the Lions have the talent to beat Green Bay, Week 17's shellacking of the Lions against Matt Flynn and the Packers back ups in a game Detroit was trying in was all the proof needed to show that Detroit is still a year or two away from hanging with the big dogs. And while people may like Matt Ryan and the Falcons, there have been no evidence to suggest that Atlanta can either score with Aaron Rodgers or has the pass defense to stop Aaron Rodgers.

However, the Giants and the Saints do have the potential to defeat the Packers. If the Saints beat the San Francisco 49ers next week, the Green Bay Packers will have to face two teams that are bad match ups for them.

Why The New York Giants Are A Bad Match Up

The Giants front four and their ability to bring pressure on the quarterback is incredible. The same defensive formula that helped defeat the undefeated New England Patriots in the Superbowl in 2007 is still in place here in 2011. That 2007 Patriots looked like the best offense ever and it looked like nothing could stop them. As it turns out, Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora, Jutsin Tuck, and Mathias Kiwanuka could stop them. Replace Straham with potential Defensive Player Of The Year Jason Pierre-Paul and you still have a dominant pass rush. The Giants have the ability to rush effectively with four to stop Aaron Rodgers. This also allows them to throw seven back into the secondary to guard against the plethora of receivers Green Bay has.

Not only can the Giants stop Aaron Rodgers but they can also score with them. Eli Manning has stepped up his game and taken it into the elite level stratosphere. Led by wide receivers Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, the Giants passing attack is explosive and they have the will and ability to score on anyone. Eli has been cool under pressure in the 4th quarter as well which does not bode well for the Packers.

The Giants lost to the Packers during the regular season back in early December where Green Bay barely scraped by with a win. Hakeem Nicks caught a touchdown pass with 58 seconds left to tie up the game and it took a Mason Crosby field goal to win the game as time expired in order for the Packers to win. Aaron Rodgers and The Pack essentially won because they had the ball last. They might not be so lucky the second time around.

Why The New Orleans Saints Are A Bad Match Up

First of all, it is no guarantee that the Saints will make it past the 49ers as the game is played in Candlestick Park, but either way, their win during Wild Card Weekend was still much worse for the Packers than if the Lions had won. However, if the Saints and the Packers do end up playing in the NFC Championship Game (which of course is now realistically possible considering New Orleans won on Wild Card weekend), the Green Bay Packers will yet again be faced with another bad match up.

While I dislike the Saints defense immensely and don't think they will be able to stop Aaron Rodgers in the slightest, I also do not believe the Packers will be able to stop Drew Brees either. Not only can Drew Brees throw the ball well (no shit, Sherlock) but they have a surprisingly good ground game as well. While their rushing offense might be split up between three running backs, the combination of Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, and Chris Ivory is a lethal one for any team.

In 2009, when Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers faced Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals during Wild Card Weekend, Rodgers and The Pack were able to score 45 points. Unfortunately, it was not enough as the Cardinals scored 51 points and won the game. There was obviously no defense whatsoever but considering the Cardinals had the ball last, they won the game. If there was ever an offense that can put up 50+ points at Lambeau it is this 2011 New Orleans Saints offense.

Again, I believe the Packers will go to the Superbowl and will defeat the Saints if they play them but it will be an offensive explosion and it will not be a guaranteed win in the slightest.

Why The Packers Will Win The NFC

Despite the Giants and the Saints being bad match ups, the Packers are also a really bad match up for those teams as well.

NEW YORK GIANTS

The Giants secondary is atrocious. It's awful and now its weak and thin as well. It gets hidden from time to time because their pass rush is so good but it is still bad. Aaron Rodgers is mobile enough to elude the pass rush and accurate enough to be able to hit receivers, even with seven guys in the secondary. Plus, if no one is open, Rodgers will just run with the ball which in turn will cause less defenders in the secondary which means Rodgers will have more open receivers to hit as the game goes on. Plus, as good as Eli has been, I just think Rodgers can go up so big so quickly on the Giants that it will not be enough.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

In a recent ESPN The Magazine article, Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders said that Drew Brees is terrible on blitzes- especially on corner blitz. The Packers have a little corner back named Charles Woodson who is fantastic at blitzing. Packers can get to Drew Brees and get to him early. Plus, the Saints are terrible outdoors and on grass. They look explosive and unbeatable at home and in domes but have a terrible track record on the road- especially in cold whether games. Just look to their loss to the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks in 2010. The Saints were by far the better team on paper but could not handle the arena in January. Even if the Saints do manage to defeat the 49ers outdoors I don't think they can win on the road twice in a row.

To Go For 19-0 or To Not Go For 19-0, That Is The Question

This was the big debate when both teams were 13-0. The Colts said (of course after they locked up home field advantage) that they would rest their players (which they did) in the games leading up to the playoffs. The Saints on the other hand, said they they were not going to rest their players and instead try and go 16-0 in the regular season.
Unfortunately for us, we will never knew which approach in better.

The Saints ended up losing to the Cowboys in a game they went all out for and didn't rest any players. After that loss, the Saints ended up resting their key players and the Colts acted like pussies and rested their stars and starters in the last one and a half games of the regular season.

It would have been nice if the Colts rested their players and the Saints didn't so this Superbowl can probably really decide once and for all which approach is better: resting or trying to go 19-0.

But of course, just another reason to hate the Colts.

The Collapse of the Saints

The Saints were 13-0 after 14 weeks of play this season. With three weeks left there was a lot of talk about them going undefeated. They had one tough opponent left in the Dallas Cowboys in week 15. The Saints ended up losing this game. This was after many close wins including a banged up Atlanta team the week before, beating Washington the week before that by a field goal in OT, and a close game against the Rams in week 10. Then the Saints lost this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This was the Buccaneers third win this season. The Saints had all of their starters in the game and still lost, so now doubt arises right before the playoffs about how good the Saints are. Earlier this season when the Saints rolled to 13-0 and after they beat New England with Drew Brees and the Saints offense clicking on all cylinders everyone thought they were unstoppable. Now after back to back losses, they look very beatable. Next week in the last game of the regular season the Saints play the Carolina Panthers who were just okay a few weeks ago. Now the Carolina Panthers tore apart the Giants and beat the Vikings two weeks ago, so this game will be much closer than everyone thought a few weeks ago. So the question is can the New Orleans Saints get back on the winning track to carry that momentum into the playoffs or will they be one of the biggest disappointments in NFL history.

Fuck You Tony Romo

Tonight gave me even more reason to hate the Dallas Cowboys and the NFL. Not only did the fucksticks retardedly called "America's Team" win on a night where professional football should not be played on a network I don't get, but they ruined the chance for "America's New Team", the New Orleans Saints, to go 19-0. Now I have to root for Peyton Manning to be 19-0? Fuck.

Random Saints D Facts

-The Saints have more defensive touchdowns (7) than Cleveland has offensive touchdowns (5)

-Darren Sharper, Saints CB, has more catches (7) than Darius Heyword Bey (5) and Bobby Engram (5)

Are The Saints The Best Team In The NFL?

The Saints have always had an amazing offense (more specifically an amazing passing offense) since Drew Brees joined the team. They're rushing offense has always been shaky because Reggie Bush sucks, but their biggest problem was always there defense. However, this year, both the running game and the defense have improved. Although I'm writing this post while the Saints still have 3 minutes left to play, I think it's safe to say that the Saints and the Colts are the two best teams in the NFL. But can we say the Saints are #1?

QB: Peyton Manning this year will probably be the MVP so I think it's safe to say he's better than Brees, but Brees is still top 3 in this league.

RB: This year, the Saints have a darn good rushing offense led by Pierre Thomas (and Mike Bell when Thomas is injured). The Saints rank 10th in the NFL in rushing yards, 8th in YPA, 3rd in YPG, and t-1st in rushing TDs (and I'm confident they will have the lead after this game ends. The Saints are very good at running the ball and pretty darn efficient. Bell and Thomas are both in the top 14 RBs according to footballoutsiders.com. Take this versus the Colts. They rank 30th in rushing YPG and 7th in rushing TDs.

Takeaways: The single most important causal factor into which football teams wins is turnovers. Both the Colts and Saints have obviously are very good. Both are pretty much even but Saints (+8) hold the slight edge over the Colts (+6)

Defense Lines: Neither team is all that great at defending against the run on the line, but NO (23rd) still holds the slight edge over Indy (26th). Indy however holds the advantage in the passing game. Indy ranks 11th to NO's 20th. Indy also holds the advantage in the sacks department- probably the second biggest factor into winning games. Indy has 20 compared to NO's 14.

Rushing D: NO ranks 2nd in the amount of rushing yards they gave to opponents, 6th in YPG, but have given up 8 rushing TDs versus Indy who ranks 17th in rushing yards given up and rushing YPG, but have given up three less rushing TDs. Granted I think the Colts will be much better against the run once Bob Sanders stays healthy, but they are not that good right now.

Secondary: Darren Sharper is one of the best corner in the game leading the league in INTs. In fact, NO is 3rd in the league for interceptions with 13 compared to Indy's 7. New Orleans ranks 2nd in the NFL defending an opponent's #1 wide out compared to Indy ranking 16. The Saints rank 3rd in the NFL defending a team's #2 receiver vs Indy ranking 21st. No also holds the TE advantage ranking 3rd to Indy's 9th place.

Overall defense: Footballoutsiders.com ranks NO as the 7th best defense compared to Indy ranking 10th. These defenses are pretty close but NO holds the advantage in passing D, rushing D, defensive efficiency and takeaways.

The New Orleans Saints hold the advantage in running the ball, defending the run, and defending the pass. And boy howdy can they they throw the ball. if the Saints lose to the Pats I'll be skeptical about ranking them ahead of Indy just because Indy has the AFC advnatage and thus a harder schedule, but damn the Saints are good this year