What Constitutes An All-Star "Snub"? Redux

Like I'm retweeting a tweet, here's an excerpt from a post I wrote on Januray 3rd, 2010 but I'm updating it to fit with 2011 Pro Bowl selections.

After every sports' all star selection comes out, everybody's favorite word soon after is "snub". I think this is a word that is thrown around way too loosely. After the 2009 MLB's All-Star selection, ESPN's Peter Gammons said that Rangers' P Kevin Millwood was an All-Star snub. Yes, Millwood had a fine first half for the Rangers and you could have made an argument, as Gammons did, that Millwood should be an All-Star. But to call him a snub? I don't think so. So I think we need to define it. Now.

Snub. Noun. A player that was not selected for his professional sports all-star game and should have a spot in the game over another player that was selected.

The key to being a snub is not that you DESERVED to go, but that you deserved to go over another player. The second key is that the player has to OVERWHELMINGLY deserve to go. Maurice Jones-Drew is a great running back and while I personally would have selected BenJarvis Green-Ellis, The Law Firm did not OVERWHELMING deserve the spot over Mo Jo. Therefore, BJGE was not snubbed.

There are however (as there is every year) obvious snubs. Here is a list of my selections of clear cut snubs:
- Matt Cassel (KC) over Peyton Manning (IND)
- Aaron Rodgers (GB) over Matt Ryan (ATL) or Drew Brees (NO)
- LeSean McCoy (PHI) over Steven Jackson (STL)
- Dan Koppen (NE) over Maurkice Pouncey (PIT)
- Mike Wallace (PIT) over Reggie Wayne (IND) or Andre Johnson (HOU)
- Aquib Talib (TAM) over DeAngelo Hall (WAS)
- Earl Thomas (SEA) over any of the three safeties selected
- Anyone over Jay Ratliff (DAL) and Andre Gurode (DAL). Eff the Dallas bias.

Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler? Part V: AFC, Defense

You can read my NFC version here

DEFENSIVE END

Sacks
1) Jason Babin (TEN)
2) Mario Williams (HOU)
3) Robert Mathis (IND)
4) Dave Ball (TEN)

WPA
1) Mario Williams (HOU)
2) Dave Ball (TEN)
3) Jason Babin (TEN)
4) Dwan Edwards (BUF)

DEFENSIVE TACKLE

Sacks
1) Haloti Ngata (BAL)
1) Tommy Kelly (OAK)
3) Kyle Williams (BUF)
3) Richard Seymour (OAK)

WPA
1) Kyle Williams (BUF)
2) Haloti Ngata (BAL)
3) Sione Pouha (NYJ)
4) Richard Seymour (OAK)

LINEBACKERS

Sacks
1) Cam Wake (MIA)
2) Tamba Hali (KC)
3) Terrell Suggs (BAL)
4) James Harrison (PIT)
4) Shaun Phillips (SD)

Tackles
1) Jerrod Mayo (NE)
2) Stephen Tulloch (TEN)
3) Ray Lewis (BAL)
4) Paul Posluszny (BUF)

Tackles For Loss
1) Cam Wake (MIA)
2) Terrell Suggs (BAL)
3) Shaun Phillips (SD)
4) James Harrison (PIT)

WPA
1) Lawrence Timmons (PIT)
2) Lamaar Woodley (PIT)
3) Cam Wake (MIA)
4) James Harrison (PIT)

SAFETIES

Interceptions
1) Troy Polamalu (PIT)
2) Ed Reed (BAL)
2) Michael Griffin (TEN)
3) James Sanders (NE)
3) Eric Berry (KC)
3) Brandon Meriweather (NE)


WPA
1) Troy Polamalu (PIT)
2) Michael Huff (OAK)
3) Michael Griffin (TEN)
4) Tyvon Branch (OAK)

CORNERBACKS

Interceptions
1) Devin McCourty (NE)
2) Joe Haden (CLE)
3) Antonie Cason (SD)
3) Leon Hall (CIN)

DVOA Against Opposing #1 WR
1) San Diego Chargers
2) Indianapolis Colts
3) Pittsburgh Steelers
4) Kansas City Chiefs

DVOA Against Opposing #2 WR
1) Pittsburgh Steelers
2) San Diego Chargers
3) Indianapolis Colts
4) Tennessee Titans

WPA
1) William Gay (PIT)
2) Joe Haden (CLE)
3) Antonio Cromartie (NYJ)
4) Sheldon Brown (CLE)

Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler? Part IV: NFC, Defense

So it's six in the morning, I have been up for twenty straight hours, and yet I'm sitting alone in my apartment watching music videos on Vh1. What I think is the most surprising thing about that opening statement is that music videos still exist. Who knew. Anyways, since Advanced NFL is actually up and running and I'm bored out of my mind, here's my continuing series of who deserves to be a pro bowler- stats edition.

Note: These stats are only through the first 13 games- which is perfect so they can match the offensive stats I did a few weeks back. Plus, pro bowl voting is only through like the first 12 weeks anyway.

DEFENSIVE END

Sacks
1) Osi Umenyiora (NYG)
1) John Abraham (ATL)
3) Chris Clemons (SEA)
4) Justin Tuck (NYG)

WPA
1) Kyle Vanden Bosch (DET)
2) Justin Tuck (NYG)
3) Jared Allen (MIN)
4) Julius Peppers (CHI)

DEFENSIVE TACKLE

Sacks
1) Ndamukong Suh (DET)
2) Justin Smith (SF)
3) Sedrick Ellis (NO)
3) Barry Cofield (NYG)
3) Fred Robbins (STL)

WPA
1) Darnell Dockett (ARI)
2) Justin Smith (SF)
3) Ndamukong Suh (DET)
4) Corey Williams (DET)

LINEBACKERS

Sacks
1) Clay Matthews (GB)
2) DeMarcus Ware (DAL)
3) Brian Orakpo (WAS)
4) Patrick Willis (SF)
4) Joey Porter (ARI)
4) Travis LaBoy (SF)

Tackles
1) Chad Greenway (MIN)
2) James Anderson (CAR)
3) Patrick Willis (SF)
4) Curtis Lofton (ATL)

Tackles For Loss
1) Clay Matthews (GB)
2) Chad Greenway (MIN)
3) DeMarcus Ware (DAL)
4) Brian Urlacher (CHI)

WPA
1) Geno Hayes (TB)
2) Brian Urlacher (CHI)
3) Paris Lennon (ARI)
4) Curtis Lofton (ATL)

SAFETIES

Interceptions
1) Earl Thomas (SEA)
2) Charles Godfrey (CAR)
3) Kerry Rhodes (ARI)
4) William Moore (ATL)

WPA
1) LaRon Landry (WAS)
2) Kerry Rhodes (ARI)
3) Quintin Mikell (PHI)
4) Deon Grant (NYG)

CORNERBACKS

Interceptions
1) Asante Samuel (PHI)
2) DeAngelo Hall (WAS)
3) Aquib Talib (TB)
4) Alfonso Smith (DET)
4) Terrell Thomas (NYG)
4) Tramon Williams (GB)

DVOA Against Opposing #1 WR
1) New York Giants
2) Tampa Bay Bucs
3) Carolina Panthers
4) St. Louis Rams

DVOA Against Opposing #2 WR
1) Carolina Panthers
2) Philadelphia Eagles
3) Green Bay Packers
4) Detroit Lions

WPA
1) DeAngelo Hall (WAS)
2) Charles Woodson (GB)
3) Tramon Williams (GB)
4) Philip Buchanon (WAS)
5) D.J. Moore (CHI)

Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler? Part II: AFC, Offense

You can read my Part I about the NFC offensive players here. No more foreplay or introductions, right on to the statistics!

QUARTERBACK

Passer Rating
1) Tom Brady
2) Philip Rivers
3) Matt Cassel

DYAR
1) Tom Brady
2) Kyle Orton
3) Philip Rivers

DVOA
1) Tom Brady
2) Philip Rivers
3) Kyle Orton

WAR
1) Joe Flacco
2) Tom Brady
3) David Garrard

RUNNING BACKS

Yards Per Carry
1) Jamaal Charles
2) Arian Foster
3) Run DMC

Rushing Yards
1) Arian Foster
2) Jamaal Charles
3) Mo Jo

Rushing Touchdowns
1) Arian Foster
2) Peyton Hillis
3) Rashard Mendenhall, Mike Tolbert, Chris Johnson, BenJarvis Green-Ellis

DYAR
1) Arian Forster
2) Jamaal Charles
3) BJGE (The Law Firm- sorry The Guy DME Accosted)

DVOA
1) Jamaal Charles
2) Arian Foster
3) BJGE

WPA
1) Maurice Jones-Drew
2) Arian Foster
3) Peyton Hillis

WIDE RECEIVERS

Receiving Yards
1) Brandon Lloyd
2) Reggie Wayne
3) Andre Johnson
4) T.O.

Receptions
1) Reggie Wayne
2) T.O.
2) Andre Johnson
4) Wes Welker

Receiving Touchdowns
1) Dwayne Bowe
2) Brandon Lloyd
2) Steve Johnson
2) Terrel Owens

DYAR
1) Brandon Lloyd
2) Mike Wallace
3) Dwayne Bowe
4) Steve Johnson

DVOA
1) Mike Wallace
2) Kenny Britt*
3) Patrick Crayton
4) Brandon Lloyd
5) Austin Collie*
6) Kevin Walter

WPA
1) Santonio Holmes
2) Anquan Boldin
3) Mike Thomas
4) Andre Johnson

TIGHT ENDS

Receiving Yards
1) Antonio Gates
2) Todd Heap
3) Dustin Keller

Receptions
1) Antonio Gates
2) Jermaine Gresham
3) Benjamin Watson

Receiving Touchdowns
1) Antonio Gates
2) Mercedes Lewis
3) Rob Gronkowski

DYAR
1) Antonio Gates
2) Rob Gronkowski
3) Todd Heap

DVOA
1) Antonio Gates
2) Rob Gronkowski
3) Evan Moore

WPA
1) Todd Heap
2) Antonio Gates
3) Aaron Hernandez

Adjusted Line Yards (ALY; How FO ranks offensive lineman)

CENTER

1) Houston
2) New England
3) New York (A)

LEFT TACKLE

1) Buffalo
2) Houston
3) Indianapolis

LEFT END

1) Kansas City
2) New York (A)
3) Tennessee

RIGHT TACKLE

1) Baltimore
2) New York (A)
3) New England

RIGHT END

1) Kansas City
2) Baltimore
3) New England

Some final thoughts
- As mentioned in the NFC post, the AFC by far dominates the NFC. It was a lot easier to do this one (especially looking at the Football Outsider stats which you can not sort via NFC and AFC)
- When you look at FO's advanced stats page, there is an advertisement of a chick with the biggest tits I have ever seen. Awesomeness.
- I was surprised in how well Rob Gronkowski was doing in many categories. Maybe because I picked up Aaron Hernandez in the beginning of the year and trusted in blind faith he's do well. Plus, I pretty much stopped doing afternoon Box Score Tonight's and the Pats tend to play in the afternoon games or later. Maybe.
- Based upon a brief looking at statistical categories, I think a big reason the Kansas City Chiefs are doing do well is because they have an awesome offensive line. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones are great talents so you add a great offensive line around them (mainly true for any running back; Cheifs ranked 2nd in the NFL in run blocking) and they'll succeed. Plus, we've seen in the past what Matt Cassel has been able to do with a shit ton of time in the pocket (KC ranks 8th in the NFL in pass blocking) and a stud wide out. FYI- Bowe is number one in the AFC with 14 touchdowns. Five more than second place.
- As a Patriots fan, I'm so glad to see no Peyton Manning on this list and to only see two Indy "names"
- I don't care what the statistics say, Philip Rivers is the #1 QB in the AFC and the MVP of the league. No way any QB puts up even THIS good stats with Patrick Creyton and Seyi Ajirotutu
* injured

Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler? Part I: NFC, Offense

Since the very inception of Game Of Inches I have continually told you who really deserved to go to the Pro Bowl. Now granted, many of my decisions are somewhat "gut" calls or have been close calls, so this year I'm going to start off with a different approach. In the first set of WD2baPB (a pretty bad acronym huh?) I'm just going to put out some key statistics that should be taken into account. Unfortunately for football, there is no "WAR" statistic like there is in baseball; there's no one statistic you can point and say, "See, look at this, this is a damn good, if not the best measure, to prove Player A is better than any other player." Not only do you have to really look at football players with your eyes (I'm not talking about intangibles like leadership but to see how good/bad a quarterback looks vs. how good/bad a wide receiver looks. Also, blocking for lineman is hard to quantify; it really helps to see with your eyes how good they are at that) but you have to take into account a multitude of key statistics to determine who deserves to be a pro bowlers.

A few disclaimers 1) I will be posting this throughout the weeks. Which means one big week from a player in Week 13 or Week 14 could skew the stats. Oh well. Deal with it. 2) I'm doing this now not only because I'm bored and sugar high off of week old dough (relax, it's been in the fridge) but because balloting for pro bowl selections is really between Week One and Week Twelve so since it's Week 13, I thought I should get a crackin.

We at GOI nevar clame to spel chek are worc

QUARTERBACK

Passer Rating
1) Michael Vick
2) Aaron Rodgers
3) Tony Romo
4) Matt Ryan

DYAR
1) Aaron Rodgers
2) Matt Ryan
3) Drew Brees

DVOA
1) Aaron Rodgers
2) Michael Vick
3) Matt Ryan

WPA
1) Matt Ryan
2) Drew Brees
3) Aaron Rodgers

RUNNING BACKS

Yards Per Carry
1) Brandon Jacobs
2) LeSean McCoy
3) Chris Ivory

Rushng Yards
1) Adrian Peterson
2) Michael Turner
3) Ahmad Bradshaw

Rushing Touchdowns
1) Adrian Peterson
2) Michael Turner
3) LeSean McCoy

DYAR
1) Adrian Peterson
2) LeSean McCoy
3) Michael Turner

DVOA
1) LeSean McCoy
2) Adrian Peterson
3) Chris Ivory

WPA
1) LeSean McCoy
2) Adrian Peterson
3) Michael Turner

WIDE RECEIVERS

Receiving Yards
1) Roddy White
2) Greg Jennings
3) Jeremy Maclin
4) Marques Colston

Receptions
1) Roddy White
2) Marques Colston
3) Danny Amendola
4) Santana Moss
4) Hakeem Nicks

Receiving Touchdowns
1) Calvin Johnson
2) Greg Jennings
2) Hakeen Nicks
3) Jeremy Maclin

DYAR
1) Roddy White
2) Greg Jennings
3) Jeremy Maclin
4) Miles Austin

DVOA
1) Robert Meachum
2) Johnny Knox
3) Jeremy Maclin
4) Greg Jennings

WPA
1) Roddy White
2) Marques Colston
3) Miles Austin

Tight Ends

Receiving Yards
1) Jason Witten
2) Chris Cooley
3) Vernon Davis

Receptions
1) Jason Witten
2) Brandon Pettigrew
3) Chris Cooley

Touchdowns
1) Greg Olson
2) Tony Gonzalez
3) Vernon Davis

DYAR
1) Jermichael Finley
2) Jason Witten
3) Vernon Davis
4) Brandon Pettigrew

DVOA
1) Jermichael Finley
2) Fred Davis
3) Delanie Walker
4) Vernon Davis

WPA
1) Tony Gonzalez
2) Vernon Davis
3) Chris Cooley

Adjusted Line Yards (ALY; How FO ranks offensive lineman)

Center

1) New Orleans
2) New York (N)
3) Green Bay

Left Tackle

1) San Fransisco
2) Minnesota
3) Atlanta

Left End

1) Arizona
2) Chicago
3) Philadelphia

Right Tackle

1) San Fransisco
2) Atlanta
3) Green Bay

Right End

1) St. Louis
2) New York (N)
3) Carolina

Some fun fact closing arguments. First of all, the Football Outsider statistics sometimes need to be taken with a grain of salt. DVOA is used to judge how good a player is per play. That's way for wide receivers you tend to see some names in there (i.e. Johnny Knox) that you didn't see in the other statistics. The obvious reason for that is because there are certain receivers that are just big play guys. Their sole value comes on just a few plays, but those plays tend to be longer plays thus inflating their value per play. It's a great and underrated skill to be able to catch at least 7 receptions in a game and it just won't be (normally) something you see for the big play deep threat type of receiver. The same holds true for running backs. It's a great and important skill to not only be talented enough, but trustworthy enough to get 15-20 carries a game.

Second, when doing this analysis, it's obvious that again the AFC produces the better players. If this list had the same categories but for the entire NFL, you'd be hard pressed to find any NFC guys on the list.

Next, I really would have loved to use WPA but for some reason Google Chrome won't load the WPA page off of Advanced NFL Stats and Firefox isn't even opening on my computer to test if is a browser problem. Sorry guys; I'll update it as soon as I can.

Fourth, the reason I did team name as opposed to players for the offensive line statistics is because FO doesn't measure which individual players were playing at each position for every snap. Often times (mainly due to injuries) teams will switch around their line and lineman. When I did my Michael Oher post, I got many complaints that I has used the wrong position to judge Oher. Apparently he was moved on the Baltimore line a few games into the season but all I have to go off of is the team name and what position each player plays according to the teams official website. So when I do an upcoming post naming individual players, please KINDLY tell me if that player truly hasn't played in that particular position for the entire season.

Also, I was surprised to see ANY Chicago Bear mention related to the offensive line.

In summary, I'm tired, I'm going to bed, and sorry for the grammatical and spelling errors.

Up next, Part II: AFC, Offense

The 2010 Pro Bowl Honors Are Useless

This year, because the Pro Bowl is BEFORE the Superbowl and not after, many more selections than normal will get Pro Bowl honors. Thus, many players who did not have that good of a year (a la Chad Ochocinco) look like they have a better career than they do. The Pro Bowl is more than a game- it's a manifestation of greatness. But when you treat the Pro Bowl like it's only a game and overlook the honors part of it, the honor becomes meaningless.

This year, 14 players from both the Colts and Saints have been replaced because, well, no need to state the obvious. Add to that the 17 players that have "injuries" and that fact that Brad Childress sent home Vikings lineman Bryan McKinnie (hmmmm), that mean that 32 players are now considered Pro Bowlers due to original starters not playing. Now some of these players deserved to be Pro Bowlers (a la Vincent Jackson, Matt Schaub), but did all 32!? Think about this- Donovan McNabb and David Garrard are also Pro Bowlers.

And to pour salt on the wounds, the 14 players from both the Superbowl bound teams still NEED to show up. What!? These players are about to play in one of the most crucial games of their lives (still important for most Colts players) and they are forced to still be on the sidelines which also screws over their team. Colts head coach Jim Caldwell says he has to rearrange his practice schedule to fit around the Pro Bowl for his players.

It makes sense that there are so many players from the Superbowl bound team that are also Pro Bowlers. The Colts and Saints were by far the top two teams in the regular season so it's no surprise that they had so many Pro Bowlers and also are going to the Superbowl. It was clearly foreseeable that having the Pro Bowl the week before the Superbowl would cause a lot of replacements, like has clearly happened.

Moral of the story: Roger Goddell is absolutely fucking retarded by breaking something even worse that before.

David Garrard Is A Pro-Bowler? Really!?

This is another reason the actual Pro Bowl game is dumb. Because there is an actual game and because essentially all good to halfway decent AFC QBs are injured, David Garrard gets to put another Pro Bowl on his resume.

-Peyton Manning- going to Superbowl (and because Goddell is retarded and has the Pro Bowl BEFORE the Superbowl, Manning won't play in Pro Bowl)
-Tom Brady- injured
-Phillip Rivers- injured
-Ben Roethlisberger -injured in Week 17 so never even got Pro Bowl honors
-Matt Schaub- starter
-Vince Young- first back up

And now David Garrard. Wonderful. This is worse than Kerry Collins going over Phillip Rivers last year. Jay Cutler had a better year than than David Garrard.

Garrard was 16th in the NFL in yards (8th in the AFC), 17th in the NFL in QB Rating (8th in the AFC), 15th (8th)in Completion Percentage, 22nd (10th) in TDs, and 23rd (12th) in INTs.

Even if you HAVE to have three QBs and you need a third, you then go in third order: Kyle Orton, Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer AND THEN David Garrard.

Pro Bowl Selections Get Slighty Evened Out

Like every year for the Pro Bowl, players selected get "injured" and new, deserving players get to go to the Pro Bowl and still have on their resume.

1) Frank Gore replaces Steven Jackson. While I think Jackson should have been the starter, Gore absolutely should have been the first alternate (over AD) and deserved a spot over DeAngelo Williams. It's a great thing Gore gets to go to the Pro Bowl this year

2) Matt Schaub replaces Tom Brady. Schaub was the 4th best QB in the AFC this year so I didn't think he deserved to necessarily represent the AFC. But he probably was a top 5 QB this year and deserved to be rewarded for the great season he had.

3) Steve Smith (NYG) replaces Larry Fitzgerald. I personally think Marques Colston deserved to go if an NFC wide out didn't go, but you can make a damn fine argument for Smith and he still had a very good year

4) Vince Young replaces Phillip Rivers. Once Peyton Manning wins the AFC Championship Game, all three selected AFC QBs will not go to the Pro Bowl, so was Young the 5th or 6th best AFC QB this year? I don't know because it's hard to measure Vince Young. But I still would have selected Ben Roethlisberger (ugh this pains me to say that) over Young.

5) Chad Ochocinco replaces Wes Welker. Randy Moss gets screwed again. Moss, Vincent Jackson, and Santonio Holmes all had better years than Ochocinco.

There have been some other replacements like Clay Matthews over Lance Briggs and Jonathan Goodwin replaced Andre Gurode, but who really cares about "non-skilled" players, right?

What Constitutes An All-Star "Snub"?

After every sports' all star selection comes out, everybody's favorite word soon after is "snub". I think this is a word that is thrown around way too loosely. After this years 2009 MLB's All-Star selection, ESPN's Peter Gammons said that Rangers' P Kevin Millwood was an All-Star snub. Yes, Millwood had a fine first half for the Rangers and you could have made an argument, as Gammons did, that Millwood should be an All-Star. But to call him a snub? I don't think so. So I think we need to define it. Now.

Snub. Noun. A player that was not selected for his professional sports all-star game and should have a spot in the game over another player that was selected.

The key to being a snub is not that you DESERVED to go, but that you deserved to go over another player. The second key is that the player has to OVERWHELMINGLY deserve to go. Marques Colston has has a great year but I don't think he's overwhelmingly the better receiver over Fitzgerald, Rice, Austin, or Jackson. Frank Gore is amazing but I don't think he's OVERWHELMINGLY better than AD, Jackson, and Williams because you can make a good argument that any one of those players should be a pro bowler.

I think a perfect example of the overuse of the word "snub" is Matt Schaub this year. In the AFC, three quarterbacks were selected: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Phillip Rivers. Therefore, people are now claiming that Matt Schaub is a snub because he's had a great year but was not selected. However, Schaub is not a snub. Schaub is currently the 4th best QB in the AFC, and therefore, if you can only take 3 QBs, you should not take the guy who is number four.

However, there are obvious snubs. The biggest snub to me is Jonathan Joseph or Leon Hall over Nnamdi Asomugha. Asomugha is absolutely not the same cornerback this year as he was last year. This year, the Raiders are worst team at defending a teams #1 receivers, the worst team defending against a teams #2 receiver, and the 19th best team at defending a teams other receivers. I can't find any evidence this year to say that Asomugha is a top shut corner like he was last year. Take this over Joseph of the Bengals. Cincy is the 2nd best team in the AFC in defending a team's #1 receiver and a teams #2 receiver. Clearly, both of Cincy's corners have been outstanding and either one of them deserve a spot on the roster over Nnamdi.

Here's a list of who I think are Pro Bowl Snubs this year. Not people who I think SHOULD go, but players who are snubs:

1) Jonathan Jospeh/ Leon Hall over Nnamdi Asomugha
2) Will Smith over Julius Peppers
3) Aaron Schoebel over Mario Williams
4) London Fletcher over Jonathan Vilma

Who Deserves To Go To The Pro Bowl: 2009 Edition, Defenses

For a list of Pro Bowlers for offensive players and special teamers, click here
For a list of Pro Bowlers for offensive lineman, click here

AFC Cornerback
Starters: Derrell Revis (NYJ), Jonathan Joseph (CIN)
Reserves: Brandon Flowers (KC), Champ Bailey (DEN)

NFC Cornerback
Starters: Asante Samuel (PHI), Charles Woodson (GB)
Reserves: Chris Gamble (CAR), Dre' Bly (SF)

Safeties that deserve to go: Jarius Byrd (BUF), Darren Sharper (NO), Nick Collins (GB)

AFC Defensive End
Starters: Elvis Dummervil (DEN), Dwight Freeney (IND)
Reserves: Aaron Schobel (BUF), Robert Mathis (IND)

NFC Defensive End
Starters: Jared Allen (MIN), Will Smith (NO)
Reserves: Trent Cole (PHI), Brian Orakpo (WAS)

AFC Linebackers
Starters: Lamarr Woodley (PIT), Brian Cushing (HOU), Ray Lewis (BAL)
Reserves: James Harrison (PIT), Tulla Banty-Cain (NE), Joey Porter (MIA)

NFC Linebackers
Starters: DeMarcus Ware (DAL), Patrick Willis (SF), London Fletcher (WAS)
Reserves: Jon Beason (CAR), Clay Matthews (GB), Curtis Lofton (ATL)

No way to truly judge: safeties, defensive tackles

Who Deserves To Go To The Pro Bowl: 2009 Edition, Offensive Lines

For a full list of offensive players who I think deserves to go to the Pro Bowl, click here

NFC Left Tackle
Starter: Mike Gandy (ARI)
Reserves: Sam Baker (ATL), Flozell Adams (DAL)- guy may be the biggest cunt in the NFL, but he sure is talented

AFC Left Tackle
Starter: Eugene Monroe (JAX)
Reserves: Joe Thomas (CLE), Ryan Clady (DEN)

NFC Left Guard
Starter: John Greco (STL)
Reserves: Kyle Kosier (DAL), Jeremy Zuttah (TB)

AFC Left Guard
Starter: Brian Waters (KC)
Reserves: Vince Manuwai (JAX), Evan Mathis (CIN)

NFC Center
Starter: Scott Wells (GB)
Reserves: Jonathan Goodwin (NO), Casey Rabach (WAS)

AFC Center
Starter: Jeff Saturday (IND)
Reserves: Dan Koppen (NE), Joe Berger (MIA)

NFC Right Guard
Starter: Melvin Fowler (DET)
Reserves: Jahri Evans (NO), Will Montgomery (WAS)

AFC Right Guard
Starter: Louis Vazquez (SD)
Reserves: Brandon Moore (NYJ), Nate Gardner (MIA)

NFC Right Tackle
Starter: Doug Free (DAL)
Reserves: Jonathan Stinchcomb (NO), Tyson Clabo (ATL)

AFC Right Tackle
Starter: Oniel Cousins (BAL)
Reserves: Tyler Polumbus (DEN), David Stewart (TEN)

Who Deserves To Go To The Pro Bowl: 2009 Edition, "Skill" Positions

Soon the Pro Bowl selections will be released, and like any all star ballot, those selections will be wrong. There are many things wrong with the football all star game like any all star game- who's is considered the best isn't determined based upon an entire year's worth of work; it's based upon a smaller and unnecessary sample size. But let me get off my soap box and tell you who really deserves to go (Also, I am basing my decision upon 15 weeks worth of work and the real pro bowl selection only went through week 12, but whatevs, I'll sure you'll be able to cope.

AFC QB
Starter: Peyton Manning (IND)
Backups: Tom Brady (NE), Phillip Rivers (SD)
Apologies to: Matt Schaub (HOU)

NFC QB
Starter: Drew Brees (NO)
Backups: Brett Favre (MIN), Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Apologies to: Tony Romo (DAL)

AFC RB
Starter: Chris Johnson (TEN)
Backups: Ray Rice (BAL), Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
Apologies to: Thomas Jones (NYJ), Ricky Williams (MIA)

NFC RB:
Starter: Steven Jackson (STL)
Backups: Frank Gore(SF), Pierre Thomas (NO)
Apologies to: DeAngelo Williams (CAR), Ryan Grant (GBP), and Adrian Peterson (MIN). I know this choice might cause you outrage and might the THE top pick that you disagree with me on, but this isn't fantasy football, this is real football. AD is 2nd in the league in rushing fumbles. Jackson, Gore, and Thomas all have a better YPC, DYAR (total value), and DVOA (efficiency per play). Yes, Peterson has more yards than all but Jackson and is first in TDs, but let me tell you something- the 99 yards to get to the end zone is much harder and surprisingly more difficult to do that the TD itself.

AFC WR:
Starters: Andre Johnson (HOU), Vincent Jackson (SD)
Backups: Reggie Wayne (IND), Wes Welker (NE), Randy Moss (NE)
Apologies to: Santonio Holmes (PIT), Brandon Marshall (DEN)

NFC WR:
Starters: Larry Fitzgerald (ARI), Miles Austin (DAL)
Backups: Sidney Rice (MIN), Marques Colston (NO), DeSean Jackson (PHI)
Apologies to: Steve Smith (NYG), Robert Meachum (NO)

AFC TE:
Starter: Dallas Clark (IND)
Backups: Antonio Gates (SD), Ben Watson (NE)
Apologies to: Owen Daniels for getting injured

NFC TE:
Starter: Vernon Davis (SF)
Backups: Tony Gonzales (ATL), Viscanthe Shiancoe (MIN)
Apologies to: No one. No other TE from the NFC really is getting snubbed.

AFC K
Starter: Dan Carpenter (MIA)
Backup: Nate Kaeding (SD)

NFC K
Starter: Ryan Longwell (MIN)
Backup: Neil Rackers (ARI)

AFC P
Starter: Shane Lechler (OAK)

NFC P
Starter: Ben Graham (ARI)

AFC Kick Returner
Starter: Josh Cribbs (CLE)

NFC Kick Returner
Starter: Clifton Smith (TAM)

What Determines A Pro-Bowler?

I know this post is extremely long but it's really interesting. (Although it was actually a lot shorter on my Word document when I wrote this)

How do you define greatness? Easily, actually. In basic terms, you determine a standard category and see who best fits the terms of the category. How do you determine who's the greatest guitarist? You can look at skill level of songs and creativity. Granted these terms may not be completely objective but you can still easily create lists to fulfill your standard. How do you determine who's the greatest baseball batter? Even easier, look at OPS. How well a person draws walks and can hit for power. That's the great thing about baseball, there's so many categories that CAN be determined objectively that's it's easy to create lists of who's the best not only year to year but all time. How do you determine who's the greatest football player of all time? Well that's where a problem occurs. You can create a standard category but how do you determine who fulfills that category? This is where statistics can become a problem. First of all, some positions don't have statistics! For example: offensive guards, offensive tackles, fullbacks. Even to some extent linebackers and safeties. Let's use offensive guards and tackles as examples. First, what standard can be used to determine who the best is? Well that's easy. There two functions which are run blocking and pass blocking. The best offensive linemen are great at pass and run blocking. OK, second, how do you determine who is the best at blocking? In a great book called The Hidden Game of Football (a prelude to Football Outsiders, essentially football sabermetrics), they try to tackle this problem. Unfortunately, they look at the best linemen off all time and they use pro bowl selections. This doesn't help us when we are trying to determine who deserves to go to the pro bowl. Recently, statisticians use sack percentage: how often the person an offensive lineman is blocking gets a sack. This is a start but there are three problems with this. First, what if an offensive lineman continually lets his defender come through yet the quarterback is mobile enough to continually not get sacked? Is that offensive lineman really good even though he let's no sacks get through? No. Second, What about run blocking? There's absolutely no way to statistically determine this. Third, often, there's more than one lineman guarding specific blockers. How can you determine who's the best if you are getting help. However, if you're a football fan, you can easily determine if your lineman sucks or not. You see, you just have to watch to see how is good or not. But it's essentially impossible to watch every single player at every single to accurately determine who is good or not. That's why you want to look at statistics. But as we just determined, that's not always possible. So with that being said, here's my list of how to determine (or not) of who should go to a pro bowl:

Positions You CAN Determine Pro-Bowl Selections For:

1. Quarterback. This is one of the easiest to judge. While a quarterback NEEDS a good offensive linemen and competent receivers to have good numbers (and a running game helps but not necessary), you can look at statistics to see who is good or not: Important stats to look at: Average yards per play (AYP), TD/INT ratio, completion percentage, and quarterback rating (while as an individual statistic it's so good but if you're the top of the of league in rating you're generally good).
   
2. Running Back. Also a very easy stat. Yes, an offensive lineman and possibly a fullback are EXTREMELY important for a RB to be good. Let's face it, Jim Brown in front of the 2008 Detroit Lions offensive line would obviously not put up as good of number as he did. Yet the great ones still put up good objective numbers. One important fact to note is that the vast majority of teams have multiple RBs therefore some good, pro bowl caliber backs lose carries and therefore lose some points in some categories, but if a RB fulfills the vast majority of the categories, then they are good. Important stats to look at: Average Yards per Carry (AYC), TDs and to some extent receptions. Receptions aren't important because if you have a back that has a lot of TDs and a high AYC then who cares if your back can't catch? Average Yards per Carry is THE most important stat. How well a running back can do on each individual play is the most important. And FUCK total yards. The guys who have a lot of total cards also have a crap load of touches, usually. Set all carries equal and see how total yards shake up. However, one still must take carries into account. A player can have a great AYC but if that same player only has about 50 touches well then, that player isn't really a pro bowl. So it's not the exact amount of carries that matters just as long as a player with a high AYC also has a significant amount of catches.
   
3. Wide Receiver. Can someone please truly tell me the difference between these two stat lines? Player 1: 2 catches, 100 yards, TD and Player 2: 10 catches, 100 yards, TD. Sure Player 1 did the exact same thing as Player 2 but in 8 less catches, but who cares? The thing is, being a wide out is not about being efficient when you catch the ball; it's just all about catching the ball. Quarterbacks and running backs are extremely independent. They essentially start off with the ball and then decide what they want to do when they have the ball. Receivers on the other hand are dependant; they have to rely solely on the QB. And when you look at the scheme of things, WR only get thrown to about an average of ten times a game. Out of all the plays a team runs, the ball is in the receiver's hands for very little time. That is why similar stats you can use to determine QBs and RBS should not be used to determine WRs. Important stats to look at: Yards per Game and TDs. And really, wide outs get very little TD tosses and very little TDs. So when a WR has a significant amount more of TDs than his competitors it's significant, but a player can be a great wide out with little to no TDs. One stat that I think should be the most important is thrown to/ receptions ratio. First of all, I can not find out this stat so it's hard for me to judge receivers on this. Secondly, this stat can be screwed a little because sometimes QBs will "throw to" a receiver just to avoid a sack or an intentional grounding call and that shouldn't count against a receiver. But really, how many yards a player can get per game over and over again is very important.
   
4. Tight End. The thing about a TE is that they are a combination of a wide receiver and an offensive lineman. Since we can not objectively judge how well anyone blocks, we must unfortunately judge TEs on their receiving skills. Therefore, the same way we should judge WRs is the same way we should judge TEs. Important stats to look at: Yards per Game and TDs.
   
5. Center. This is really the only "blocking" position that can be measured through stats. The thing is, a center is in charge of the entire offensive line. While granted, unfortunately, an offensive line and a center is not a causal relationship, but if an offensive line is good, it is because of its center. And in fact, Football Outsiders use DVOA to judge how well lines as a whole are. So is a team's offensive line is one of the best, then so is its center. Important stats to look at: offensive line DVOA
   
6. Kick Returner: Easy, just look at a returner's average yards per attempt. TDs are not extremely important because really, I know we are all so used to Devin Hester, but in reality, there are so few TDs scored on kick returns. Plus, if a returner does have a lot of touchdowns, they will have a high average because it takes a lot of yards to run back a kick for a TD. Important stats to look at: Average Yards per Return.
   
7. Kicker: Another easy one. All a kicker has to do is kick the ball like 5 times a game. How efficient a guy is at kicking shows how well the kicker is. You can not clearly look at total points because this is determined by FG attempts. One other important fact that's important is percentage of kicks a guy makes from 50+ yards. These kicks are hard. The best kickers should have a decent percentage of kicks from 50+ yards AND from everywhere else. Because let's face it, as awesome as Robbie Gould is because of his high percentage rate, the fact he can't make a kick from at least 50 yards is a major flaw of his. One important point to note: amount of or percentage of game winning field goals is crap. If a kicker is good, it doesn't matter when the game situation is. Important stats to note: FG percentage and FG percentage from 50+ yards.
   
8. Punter. The punter's job is to make sure the opposing team has the worst field position possible. This means both kicking it so the punt returner has a hard time returning the kick and kicking it far and accurate enough to cause trouble to the opposition if the ball is not caught. Important stats to look at: percentage of kicks within the 20 and average net yards per punt. A beaming kick that's caught at the 5 yard line does nothing if it's brought back for a TD. That's why you have to subtract how far the kick went from how far the punter punted it. This is net yardage and the average of this net yardage determines the best. Also, kicks within the 20 means the punter is doing his job making it as hard as possible for the opposition to return kicks
   
9. Defense Ends: The one can get tricky because people tend to judge DE's by sacks. This is tough for two reasons. First, a DE has to do more than pass block, he also has to run block. Secondly, in passing situations, a great DE can apply heavy pressure to the QB without making a sack, yet he did his job perfectly. Yet at the end of the day, players that accrue the most sacks and generally the best defensive end, just please be aware sacks are not the be all end all. Plus, in 3-4, the linebackers, not the ends do the majority of the sacking. Important stats to look at: sacks and tackles for losses.
   
10. Cornerbacks. The primary goal of a CB is to make sure the opposing team's receivers do not get catches. Their goal is not to make interceptions, but to stop receivers from doing their job. Interceptions are misleading. What if let's say you have a cornerback who is pretty bad. Let's call him DeAngelo Hall. This CB is so bad that QBs throw to the receiver he is guarding often. Let's say he is thrown on so much that every once in a while he is able to get an interception. Eventually he may even be in the top 5 in the league in INTs. Is he really a pro bowler? Hell no, he's barely a competent back. In fact, a good many CBs that are pro bowl caliber do not get a lot of INTs because of how well they cover their receiver. Important stat to look at: guarding receivers total numbers. Unfortunately ESPN and NFL.com do not post these stats but you can figure out how often a CB is thrown on and how bad their receivers do. There MUST be a way considering ESPN shows these kinds of stats all the time.
    

Position You Can SORT OF Determine Pro Bowl Selections For:

1. Linebackers. The two main stats people use are tackles and sacks to measure a linebacker's success. Major problems with these. First with sacks. Not all systems require the LB to blitz the QB. In 3-4 systems, they are supposed to. In 4-3, they are not (per se). If you're a linebacker in a 4-3 system, you shouldn't be penalized because you're not asked to rush the passer often. Second, we'll talk about tackles. The same reasons interceptions suck is the same reason tackles suck. If you're a linebacker and you're defensive line is terrible at run blocking, you're going to have a lot of players run you're way. Eventually, you're going to accrue you're far share of tackles. This doesn't mean you are great, it just means players around are not. That being said, you still can kind of sort of determine pro bowlers. LBs that are asked to blitz a lot and are good at it should not be penalized for being good at what they do and get a lot of sacks. Plus, great LBs tend to be pretty good in whole bunch of stats like INTs, sacks, forced fumbles, tipped balls, etc.
   
2. Safety. You know who the best safeties are. You just do. You know how awesome Troy Polamalu and Ed Reed are. The problem is that you don't really have statistics to prove this. One good way of proving how good a safety is by looking at how well a defense does with and without the safety. For example, look how well the Colts and Bears run defense performs when Bob Sanders and Mike Brown, respectively, are not healthy. However, what if a player is always healthy? Then this will prove nothing. Polamalu and Reed have a high numbers of INTs, but as we have proved before, INTs are a shitty stat. But one stat dismissed before is actually a decent measure of a safety's performance, tackles. The thing is, a safety's job is to make sure a receiver or ball carrier does get tackled. If a cornerback let's his receiver catch a ball, it is the safety's job to tackle said receiver. They are set in place as a protection for when people mess up, because they will. However, a good safety paired with a bad cornerback will probably have an unnecessary amount of tackles. So you can look at tackles, INTS, and defensives as a whole, however there is no clear cut way to determine the best of the best.
   
3. Defensive Tackle. If a DT has a large amount of sacks, they are automatically amazing. But the vast majority of DTs do not have a lot of sacks. One measure people might say is to look at a team's run defense and if that is good then the DTs are good. Two problems with this: 1) there are more players like LBs and Ss that help with run blocking and 2) if a team does a good run defense which DT do you give credit to? Honestly, I know Pat Williams and Kevin Williams are fucking awesome, but I can not tell you which one is better than the other. The problem we encounter with run blocking creates the problem with run defense, it's just hard to objectively determine how well a guy can do with run tackling and blocking.
   

Positions You CAN NOT Determine Pro Bowl Selections For:

1. Offensive Guards. If you can give me a concrete way to determine how well a guy pass blocks AND run blocks, please tell me. As I pointed out in the beginning, this just isn't fully quantifiable.
   
2. Offensive Tackles: See above
   
3. Special Teamers: Seriously, what makes Brandon Ayanbedejo so good? Why does he keep going to the pro bowl every year? I don't even know what standards to use to determine what makes a good special teamer? Does he tackle well? Does he block well? Does he run fast enough to force the kick returner to call for a fair catch? Does he strip the ball well? WHAT!? Seriously, this is a completely bullshit category and should be taken away as one.
   
4. Fullback. The fullback's main job to do is block. And as we have fully discussed, run blocking is essentially not quantifiable. I guess an argument can be made that if a RB is good and outs p really good numbers then the FB must be doing something right? Well, maybe, the problem is what is the causal arrow? The FB may not necessarily make the RB good. What if the RB is good that it doesn't matter that the FB missed his run blocking assignment? What if a fullback does his job to a tee but his RB is kid of bad and gets easily tackled no matter what? Again, a fullback run blocks and this can't be put into numbers.