PLAYOFF PICTURE
NFC
Wild Card Round
(6) Detroit Lions def. (3) New Orleans Saints
(4) New York Giants def. (5) Atlanta Falcons
Divisional Round
(1) Green Bay Packers def. (6) Detroit Lions
(2) San Fransisco 49ers def. (4) New York Giants
Championship Game
(1) Green Bay Packers def. (2) San Fransisco 49ers
AFC
Wild Card Round
(5) Pittsburgh Steelers def. (4) Denver Broncos
(3) Houston Texans def. (6) Cincinnati Bengals
Divisional Round
(5) Pittsburgh Steelers def. (1) New England Patriots
(2) Baltimore Ravens def. (3) Houston Texans
Championship Game
(2) Baltimore Ravens def. (5) Pittsburgh Steelers
SUPERBOWL
Green Bay Packers def. Baltimore Ravens
Best _____ In The Playoffs
DEFENSES
1) San Fransisco 49ers
2) Houston Texans
3) Pittsburgh Steelers
4) Baltimore Ravens
5) New York Giants
6) Green Bay Packers
7) Cincinnati Bengals
8) Denver Broncos
9) Detroit Lions
10) New Orleans Saints
11) Atlanta Falcons
12) New England Patriots
QUARTERBACKS
1) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2) Tom Brady (NE)
3) Drew Brees (NO)
4) Eli Manning (NYG)
5) Matthew Stafford (DET)
6) Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) (only because of injury)
7) Matt Ryan (ATL)
8) Andy Dalton (CIN)
9) Alex Smith (SF)
10) Joe Flacco (BAL)
11) Tim Tebow (DEN)
12) T.J. Yates / Jake Delhomme (HOU)
COACHES
1) Bill Belichick (NE)
2) Mike McCarthy (GB)
3) Sean Peyton (NO)
4) Jim Harbaugh (SF)
5) Tom Coughlin (NYG)
6) Jim Schwartz (DET)
7) Mike Tomlin (PIT)
8) John Harbaugh (BAL)
9) John Fox (DEN)
10) Mike Smith (ATL)
11) Gary Kubiak (HOU)
12) Marvin Lewis (CIN)
RUNNING BACKS
1) Arian Foster (HOU)
2) Ray Rice (BAL)
3) Frank Gore (SF)
4) Ben Tate (HOU)
5) Darren Sproles (NO)
6) Tim Tebow (DEN)
(just kidding)
6) Cedric Benson (CIN)
7) Michael Turner (ATL)
8) Pierre Thomas (NO)
9) Willis McGahee (DEN)
10) Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG)
11) Ryan Grant (GB)
12) Kevin Smith (DET)
RECEIVERS
1) Calvin Johnson (DET)
2) Mike Wallace (PIT)
3) Jordy Nelson (GB)
4) A.J. Green (CIN)
5) Victor Cruz (NYG)
6) Rob Gronkowski (NE)
7) Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
8) Roddy White (ATL)
9) Wes Welker (NE)
10) Antonio Brown (PIT)
11) Marques Colston (NO)
12) Jimmy Graham (NO)
NOTE: If Greg Jennings is healthy I would rank him 6th between Green and Cruz
END OF THE YEAR AWARDS
MVP: Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Rookie Of The Year
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton (CAR)
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Von Miller (DEN)
Special Teams Rookie of the Year: Patrick Peterson (ARI)
Sophomore of the Year
Offensive Sophomore of the Year: Rob Gronkowski (NE)
Defensive Sophomore of the Year: Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG)
Defensive Player of the Year: Patrick Willis (SF)
Comeback Player of the Year: Steve Smith (CAR)
Offensive Player Of The Year (Besides Rodgers): Tom Brady (NE)
Showing posts with label NFL MVP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL MVP. Show all posts
Drew Brees Does Not Deserve The MVP: Why The New Orleans QB Is Not Having As Good Of A Season As You Might Think And Why Dan Marino Is Still The Best
And How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Bomb
In Week 16 of the 2011 season, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees set the record for most passing yards in a single season- surpassing Dan Marino's record that he set in 1984. Through 15 games Brees has thrown for 5,087 yards. Through 16 games in 1984, Marino threw for 5,084.
But let's break this down further.
First, it's a lot easier to throw in today's football than it was 30 years ago. The NFL has changed drastically it's really to make it easier for wide receivers to get separation and it makes it harder for defensive backs (or any defensive player) to touch and cover their intended receiver. What Dan Marino did in 1984 is like what Babe Ruth did in 1927. Ruth hit 60 home runs when the rest of the league was hitting 12. Marino putting up the numbers he did at the time he did it in was that much more incredible.
Second, Drew Brees throws it a lot. I mean A LOT. Drew Brees currently leads the NFL in pass attempts with 622. He averages 1.2 more pass attempts per game than second place (Matthew Stafford- and the Lions have spent a lot of games down big by halftime/the 3rd quarter) and 3.067 more attempts per game than third place (Tom Brady). Brees' 2011 season currently ranks him 10th all time among passing attempts.
Having that many attempts hurts Brees tremendously. Through advanced statistics in all sports, we know now that it is not the absolute numbers you put up, but how you get to your total numbers that's most important. Leading the league in strike outs is not very impressive if you also happen to lead the league in innings pitched as well. What's more important is strikeouts per 9 innings as well as strike out to walk ratio. Keep this analogy in mind as we'll get to it later.
Drew Brees was able to set the single season passing record just because he threw it so damn much. Like K/9, the most important statistic for quarterbacks is not total passing yards but rather yards per attempt. Currently, Drew Brees ranks only SIXTH in YPA behind Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, and Carson Palmer. Ranking outside the top five in a single season for YPA is not very impressive in the least. This statistic alone should take Brees out of MVP discussions.
However, we're going to go further. Like K/BB ratio for pitchers, quarterbacks have TD/INT ratio. Pitchers can get away with not striking a lot of guys out if they also do not walk very many guys (see: most Minnesota Twins pitchers since Johan Santana left). Likewise, it's possible to get away with walking very many guys if you have the ability to strike guys out with batters on base. In baseball, one of the worst things a pitcher can do is walk a batter. We know know that's it's all about on base percentage (and not batting average) for hitters. Likewise for football, one of the worst things a quarterback can do is turn the ball over. Turn overs have been proven to be one of the leading factors to determine which teams wins the ball game. Also, a QB can make up for his turnovers if he's able to score a lot of touchdowns.
Through 15 games, Drew Brees currently has 13 interceptions and 41 touchdowns. This is good for a 3.15 TD/INT ratio. Anything above 2:1 is impressive so Brees has a fantastic TD/INT ratio. However, Brees currently ranks 4th in this category in 2011 behind Aaron Rodgers (7.5), Tom Brady (3.27), Tony Romo (3.22), and Alex Smith (3.20).
But wait Adam, Brees currently on pace to set the single season mark for most completions? Shouldn't that count for something?
Yes, random naysayer I just made up, yes it does. That completion percentage is another amazing accomplishment. Right now Brees has a completion percentage of 71.2%. Who's in second place? Bress and his 2009 season when he completed 70.6% of his passes (as well as Ken Anderson in 1982 when he also completed 70.6% of his passes).
However, I would be more impressed with that completion percentage if 1) It wasn't painfully obvious the percentage was a result of Sean Payton's system and 2) if New Orleans did not have three out of the top 15 receivers in terms of yards after the catch. Two of which are running backs and the third one being a tight end.
New Orleans running back Darren Sproles currently leads the league in YAC with 649, running back Pierre Thomas is 12th with 443 and tight end Jimmy Graham is 15th with 407.
What this tells me is that Drew Brees gets a lot of completions coming from dink and dumps and easy passes over the middle. While I would rather have my quarterback completing passes than not completing passes, if I'm going to say a quarterback absolutely deserves to win the MVP, he needs to not derive so much of his value from being Chad Pennington-esque.
What's even more telling about Drew Brees and his MVP chances if that he ranks 3rd in terms of DVOA (a metric that measures how valuable a player is per play), 3rd in WPA/game, and 2nd in EPA/game (WPA and EPA are metrics that takes into account not only total yards and such but time in the game, down, and distance. Think about it- a 3 yard gain is more impressive on 4th and 2 late in the 4th quarter than on 1st and 10 early in the first. WPA and EPA takes things like that into consideration).
Despite all my Drew Brees bashing that I have just done, do not get it twisted and think that I hate Drew Brees. I do not. Brees' 2011 season has been stellar and amazing and I would love for Brees and his system to be on the team that I root for. Brees absolutely deserved his Pro Bowl berth and he should get all the kudos in the world for having a great season in 2011. What I am saying is that he does not deserve to be the MVP.
That honor belongs to (ugh, this pains me to say as a Bears fan): Aaron Rodgers. First of all, there has been only two seasons where a quarterback has had a TD/INT ratio of over 6:1- Tom Brady in 2010 (9:1) and Tom Brady in 2007 (6.25:1). As mentioned earlier, Aaron Rodgers has a TD/INT ratio of 7.5:1. ESPN and the shitty hype machine that it is should be making a much bigger deal of Aaron Rodger's TD/INT ratio than of Drew Brees' single season passing record.
Rodgers currently leads the NFL in: TD/INT ratio, passing touchdowns, passer rating, QBR, Yards Per Attempt, DVOA, and EPA. That also doesn't take into account his 257 rushing yards (4.3 YPC) and 3 rushing touchdowns. Rodgers is also 2nd in DYAR (total passing value) and WPA. To add to that, Rodgers has a sub par offensive line. According to Football Outsides, the Green Bay Packers have the 23rd ranked passing O-line (In contrast, the New Orleans Saints have the 3rd best). PLUS, Rodgers passes the eye test with flying colors. Every time I see Rodgers play it looks like every ball he throws should be completed. Every pass looks right on the money and I am baffled to as how Rodgers doesn't have a 100% completion percentage.
There should be no co-MVP in 2011 and Drew Brees should not get any first place votes for MVP. This award is Aaron Rodgers' award and HE should get every single first place vote. I don't care that the Packers lost a game. If you're gonna be that petty then I'll point out Drew Brees and the Saints lost to the St. Louis Rams. THE 2-13 RAMS! (as well as two others- including Aaron Rodger's Packers). You are a very good and talented QB Drew Brees but I'm sorry, 2011 is NOT your year.
In Week 16 of the 2011 season, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees set the record for most passing yards in a single season- surpassing Dan Marino's record that he set in 1984. Through 15 games Brees has thrown for 5,087 yards. Through 16 games in 1984, Marino threw for 5,084.
But let's break this down further.
First, it's a lot easier to throw in today's football than it was 30 years ago. The NFL has changed drastically it's really to make it easier for wide receivers to get separation and it makes it harder for defensive backs (or any defensive player) to touch and cover their intended receiver. What Dan Marino did in 1984 is like what Babe Ruth did in 1927. Ruth hit 60 home runs when the rest of the league was hitting 12. Marino putting up the numbers he did at the time he did it in was that much more incredible.
Second, Drew Brees throws it a lot. I mean A LOT. Drew Brees currently leads the NFL in pass attempts with 622. He averages 1.2 more pass attempts per game than second place (Matthew Stafford- and the Lions have spent a lot of games down big by halftime/the 3rd quarter) and 3.067 more attempts per game than third place (Tom Brady). Brees' 2011 season currently ranks him 10th all time among passing attempts.
Having that many attempts hurts Brees tremendously. Through advanced statistics in all sports, we know now that it is not the absolute numbers you put up, but how you get to your total numbers that's most important. Leading the league in strike outs is not very impressive if you also happen to lead the league in innings pitched as well. What's more important is strikeouts per 9 innings as well as strike out to walk ratio. Keep this analogy in mind as we'll get to it later.
Drew Brees was able to set the single season passing record just because he threw it so damn much. Like K/9, the most important statistic for quarterbacks is not total passing yards but rather yards per attempt. Currently, Drew Brees ranks only SIXTH in YPA behind Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, and Carson Palmer. Ranking outside the top five in a single season for YPA is not very impressive in the least. This statistic alone should take Brees out of MVP discussions.
However, we're going to go further. Like K/BB ratio for pitchers, quarterbacks have TD/INT ratio. Pitchers can get away with not striking a lot of guys out if they also do not walk very many guys (see: most Minnesota Twins pitchers since Johan Santana left). Likewise, it's possible to get away with walking very many guys if you have the ability to strike guys out with batters on base. In baseball, one of the worst things a pitcher can do is walk a batter. We know know that's it's all about on base percentage (and not batting average) for hitters. Likewise for football, one of the worst things a quarterback can do is turn the ball over. Turn overs have been proven to be one of the leading factors to determine which teams wins the ball game. Also, a QB can make up for his turnovers if he's able to score a lot of touchdowns.
Wow! This analogy is perfect *pats himself on the back*
Through 15 games, Drew Brees currently has 13 interceptions and 41 touchdowns. This is good for a 3.15 TD/INT ratio. Anything above 2:1 is impressive so Brees has a fantastic TD/INT ratio. However, Brees currently ranks 4th in this category in 2011 behind Aaron Rodgers (7.5), Tom Brady (3.27), Tony Romo (3.22), and Alex Smith (3.20).
But wait Adam, Brees currently on pace to set the single season mark for most completions? Shouldn't that count for something?
Yes, random naysayer I just made up, yes it does. That completion percentage is another amazing accomplishment. Right now Brees has a completion percentage of 71.2%. Who's in second place? Bress and his 2009 season when he completed 70.6% of his passes (as well as Ken Anderson in 1982 when he also completed 70.6% of his passes).
However, I would be more impressed with that completion percentage if 1) It wasn't painfully obvious the percentage was a result of Sean Payton's system and 2) if New Orleans did not have three out of the top 15 receivers in terms of yards after the catch. Two of which are running backs and the third one being a tight end.
New Orleans running back Darren Sproles currently leads the league in YAC with 649, running back Pierre Thomas is 12th with 443 and tight end Jimmy Graham is 15th with 407.
What this tells me is that Drew Brees gets a lot of completions coming from dink and dumps and easy passes over the middle. While I would rather have my quarterback completing passes than not completing passes, if I'm going to say a quarterback absolutely deserves to win the MVP, he needs to not derive so much of his value from being Chad Pennington-esque.
What's even more telling about Drew Brees and his MVP chances if that he ranks 3rd in terms of DVOA (a metric that measures how valuable a player is per play), 3rd in WPA/game, and 2nd in EPA/game (WPA and EPA are metrics that takes into account not only total yards and such but time in the game, down, and distance. Think about it- a 3 yard gain is more impressive on 4th and 2 late in the 4th quarter than on 1st and 10 early in the first. WPA and EPA takes things like that into consideration).
Despite all my Drew Brees bashing that I have just done, do not get it twisted and think that I hate Drew Brees. I do not. Brees' 2011 season has been stellar and amazing and I would love for Brees and his system to be on the team that I root for. Brees absolutely deserved his Pro Bowl berth and he should get all the kudos in the world for having a great season in 2011. What I am saying is that he does not deserve to be the MVP.
That honor belongs to (ugh, this pains me to say as a Bears fan): Aaron Rodgers. First of all, there has been only two seasons where a quarterback has had a TD/INT ratio of over 6:1- Tom Brady in 2010 (9:1) and Tom Brady in 2007 (6.25:1). As mentioned earlier, Aaron Rodgers has a TD/INT ratio of 7.5:1. ESPN and the shitty hype machine that it is should be making a much bigger deal of Aaron Rodger's TD/INT ratio than of Drew Brees' single season passing record.
Rodgers currently leads the NFL in: TD/INT ratio, passing touchdowns, passer rating, QBR, Yards Per Attempt, DVOA, and EPA. That also doesn't take into account his 257 rushing yards (4.3 YPC) and 3 rushing touchdowns. Rodgers is also 2nd in DYAR (total passing value) and WPA. To add to that, Rodgers has a sub par offensive line. According to Football Outsides, the Green Bay Packers have the 23rd ranked passing O-line (In contrast, the New Orleans Saints have the 3rd best). PLUS, Rodgers passes the eye test with flying colors. Every time I see Rodgers play it looks like every ball he throws should be completed. Every pass looks right on the money and I am baffled to as how Rodgers doesn't have a 100% completion percentage.
There should be no co-MVP in 2011 and Drew Brees should not get any first place votes for MVP. This award is Aaron Rodgers' award and HE should get every single first place vote. I don't care that the Packers lost a game. If you're gonna be that petty then I'll point out Drew Brees and the Saints lost to the St. Louis Rams. THE 2-13 RAMS! (as well as two others- including Aaron Rodger's Packers). You are a very good and talented QB Drew Brees but I'm sorry, 2011 is NOT your year.
Who Deserves To Be The MVP?
I don't know. I truly don't know.
The obvious choices are between Tom Brady and Michael Vick. I would have loved to have thrown Phillip Rivers' name in the mix as well considering how great of a first half he had and just how truly awful his receiving corps was at the time. But a bad second half and a playoff elimination sealed his fate for him also getting eliminated from the MVP hunt. I have talked to The 'Bright' One about this and he says hands down Vick deserves it. I could not strongly agree or disagree one way or another as long as one of those two men win it.
So to help me decide, I've decided to make a pro/cons list for Brady and Vick to help you, the reader, make an informed decision on who you think deserves to be the NFL MVP in 2010.
Pro Brady/ Anti-Vick
Tom Brady has been better at not turning over the ball
When the debate was still Rivers vs. Vick, the one thing that Vick had going for him is that he hadn't thrown an interception yet. In fact, he played in 7 straight games without throwing one. But then he faced the vaunted Bears defense and threw his first interception- in the red zone no less.
In 2010, Michael Vick ended the year (in 12 games) with 6 interceptions. Tom Brady on the other hand (in 15 games) has only thrown 4 interceptions. In fact, Tom Brady has set the record by throwing 319 straight attempts without throwing a pick and hasn't thrown an INT since Week 4. Vick has thrown at least one interception for the past five weeks versus Tom Brady who has only thrown a pick in two games this year.
Tom Brady has the better passer rating
Obviously this can be kind of a flawed statistic when one of the players you're comparing to is a great rusher, but Vick has also been a great passer has well with his 100.2 passer rating. But I think Brady's league leading 109.8 can not be ignored. Despite passer rating being more hard to calculate than the one millionth number in pi, I think it's a great stat and my favorite and best indicator and traditional statistic of greatness for a QB.
Michael Vick has the better supporting staff
You can look at the numbers of any Patriots player all you want, but what you really need to do is look at the physical skill of every player. Yes, Danny Woodhead had a fantastic year but the reason he looked so good is because of the great system Bill Belichick has in place. But being under 5'9", Woodhead would flounder in about 30 other systems. Compare his and The Law Firm's talents to LeSean McCoy- who was a top 2 running back in the NFC. McCoy looked like a healthy Brian Westbrook and has the physical tools to do what he did in 2010 on essentially every team (but probably not Carolina).
But what you really need to do is look at the team's receiving corps. Vick has a top 10 receiver talent in DeSean Jackson and a player that can score a TD and run past any corner in the league on any given play. At then you have a great young talent in Jeremy Maclin who would put up top 10 numbers if it weren't for Jackson there. No matter what you think of either player, they don't come anywhere close to the talent of Deion Branch and Wes Welker. You can look to see what Branch did in Seattle to know that he's purely a system guy and give all the praise you want to Welker, but there's a reason Miami was so easily and willing to get rid of him. Branch and Welker are products of their great system but Jackson and Maclin are just straight up great talents that would succeed anywhere.
And it's a helluva lot easier to put up great numbers with a great supporting cast around you.
Tom Brady has the better advanced stats
If you don't understand WPA, read here. WPA is the same stat used in baseball, just (obviously) used in a football context. Every down made and play made during that down affects the scoring of the game. The success of the play is weighted against what down was it, what's the current score of the game, how much time is left, and where did the play occur on the field. The best way to think of it: a 3 yard run on 4th and 2 is a lot more important than a 3 yard run on 1st and 20. It's this concept that goes into every play and is given a numerical value to each player.
I'm pretty sure this statistic also encompasses rushing plays made by a quarterback as well as passing plays and Tom Brady's 3.26 and .22 WPA/game is better than Vick's 1.78 WPA and .15 WPA/game.
That same concept for WPA also goes into another statistic called EPA where Brady leads all quarterbacks in that with 140.2 (compared to Vick's 102.1) and as well leading all quarterbacks in EPA/play with 0.26 compared to Vick's 0.20. You can read how to calculate EPA here.
Brady leads the league in both DYAR (total value) and DVOA (value per play) according to Football Outsiders, but even I'll admit this is extremely flawed because Vick's value comes in both the passing and running game whereas Brady's value comes essentially solely from the passing game- which is what DYAR and DVOA measure. Vick is first among QB's in rushing DYAR and 6th among QBs in rushing DVOA.
Pro Vick/ Anti-Brady
Michael Vick is the most exciting player in the game
I don't mean to say that MVP's should be given out solely based upon a subjective feeling of pleasure a fan gets from watching an NFL player, but think about why Vick is so much fun to watch- it's because he's been such a great passer as well as a great runner. Which means, as a defense, you have to account for Vick running as well as passing, which adds a huge strain to a defense. Especially when Vick is elite at doing both. And it's THAT reason that makes Vick a legitimate MVP candidate.
Although it's "easier" to scheme for Tom Brady because you know he's going to pass, it's still hard to execute. But because Vick is great at multiple aspects of an offense it makes him so much fun to watch and so hard to play defense against. Imagine if Dan Marino and Walter Payton were on the same team how great that offense would be? Now imagine if both were the same player and you get Vick (now obviously I'm being extremely hyperbolic, but I hope you get my drift). Having a top tiered quarterback and a top tiered running back in the same player is huge benefit to any team.
Tom Brady has the better passing offensive line
I don't care if you're Joe freaking Montana, if you're playing behind say this 2010 Bears offensive line (currently ranked dead last in passing tackling) or some of the Lions offensive lines in the past, then you are not going to put up great stats. When you have time to throw, you have time to go through multiple reads and then it is much easier for you to make completions and drive your team down the field. This is Football 101 (if thought by me. This is like grad school concepts if this class is being taught by Mike Lombardi). So you can look at straight stats all you want, but any statistic is going to favor the guys with the better line. This year, Brady and Vick are on equal footing as the basics of throwing the ball to a receiver to get 1st downs/touchdowns, so it's the "little" things like offensive line that really make the difference.
This year, the Patriots have the 6th best passing offensive line versus the Eagles who have the 27th best. That's a huge disparity and like Aaron Rodgers last year, it's a great accomplishment to put up elite numbers while having constant pressure in your face. And it's Vick's mobility that helps him get past a bad offensive line. If Brady played behind the Eagles line and Vick behind the Patriots line, then I'm sure Vick would put up passing numbers.
Unfortunately, that's pure conjecture. But the fact that Vick has the far inferior line gives him a great boost.
Vick has the better TD rate
I took into account both rushing TDs and passing TDs by each player. Brady currently has 35 total TDs (1 rushing) compared to Vick that has 30 total touchdowns (9 rushing). But Brady has played in three more games than Vick.
Currently, Brady has scored 2.33 TD/game versus Vick who has 2.50 TD/game- which gives the edge to Vick.
After I wrote the Brady bit I was going to conclude that Brady deserves the MVP but after finishing this article as a whole, I'm still conflicted. Even if you have a personal preference one way or the other, as long as either Vick or Brady is crowned MVP, the voters made the correct choice.
The obvious choices are between Tom Brady and Michael Vick. I would have loved to have thrown Phillip Rivers' name in the mix as well considering how great of a first half he had and just how truly awful his receiving corps was at the time. But a bad second half and a playoff elimination sealed his fate for him also getting eliminated from the MVP hunt. I have talked to The 'Bright' One about this and he says hands down Vick deserves it. I could not strongly agree or disagree one way or another as long as one of those two men win it.
So to help me decide, I've decided to make a pro/cons list for Brady and Vick to help you, the reader, make an informed decision on who you think deserves to be the NFL MVP in 2010.
Pro Brady/ Anti-Vick
Tom Brady has been better at not turning over the ball
When the debate was still Rivers vs. Vick, the one thing that Vick had going for him is that he hadn't thrown an interception yet. In fact, he played in 7 straight games without throwing one. But then he faced the vaunted Bears defense and threw his first interception- in the red zone no less.
In 2010, Michael Vick ended the year (in 12 games) with 6 interceptions. Tom Brady on the other hand (in 15 games) has only thrown 4 interceptions. In fact, Tom Brady has set the record by throwing 319 straight attempts without throwing a pick and hasn't thrown an INT since Week 4. Vick has thrown at least one interception for the past five weeks versus Tom Brady who has only thrown a pick in two games this year.
Tom Brady has the better passer rating
Obviously this can be kind of a flawed statistic when one of the players you're comparing to is a great rusher, but Vick has also been a great passer has well with his 100.2 passer rating. But I think Brady's league leading 109.8 can not be ignored. Despite passer rating being more hard to calculate than the one millionth number in pi, I think it's a great stat and my favorite and best indicator and traditional statistic of greatness for a QB.
Michael Vick has the better supporting staff
You can look at the numbers of any Patriots player all you want, but what you really need to do is look at the physical skill of every player. Yes, Danny Woodhead had a fantastic year but the reason he looked so good is because of the great system Bill Belichick has in place. But being under 5'9", Woodhead would flounder in about 30 other systems. Compare his and The Law Firm's talents to LeSean McCoy- who was a top 2 running back in the NFC. McCoy looked like a healthy Brian Westbrook and has the physical tools to do what he did in 2010 on essentially every team (but probably not Carolina).
But what you really need to do is look at the team's receiving corps. Vick has a top 10 receiver talent in DeSean Jackson and a player that can score a TD and run past any corner in the league on any given play. At then you have a great young talent in Jeremy Maclin who would put up top 10 numbers if it weren't for Jackson there. No matter what you think of either player, they don't come anywhere close to the talent of Deion Branch and Wes Welker. You can look to see what Branch did in Seattle to know that he's purely a system guy and give all the praise you want to Welker, but there's a reason Miami was so easily and willing to get rid of him. Branch and Welker are products of their great system but Jackson and Maclin are just straight up great talents that would succeed anywhere.
And it's a helluva lot easier to put up great numbers with a great supporting cast around you.
Tom Brady has the better advanced stats
If you don't understand WPA, read here. WPA is the same stat used in baseball, just (obviously) used in a football context. Every down made and play made during that down affects the scoring of the game. The success of the play is weighted against what down was it, what's the current score of the game, how much time is left, and where did the play occur on the field. The best way to think of it: a 3 yard run on 4th and 2 is a lot more important than a 3 yard run on 1st and 20. It's this concept that goes into every play and is given a numerical value to each player.
I'm pretty sure this statistic also encompasses rushing plays made by a quarterback as well as passing plays and Tom Brady's 3.26 and .22 WPA/game is better than Vick's 1.78 WPA and .15 WPA/game.
That same concept for WPA also goes into another statistic called EPA where Brady leads all quarterbacks in that with 140.2 (compared to Vick's 102.1) and as well leading all quarterbacks in EPA/play with 0.26 compared to Vick's 0.20. You can read how to calculate EPA here.
Brady leads the league in both DYAR (total value) and DVOA (value per play) according to Football Outsiders, but even I'll admit this is extremely flawed because Vick's value comes in both the passing and running game whereas Brady's value comes essentially solely from the passing game- which is what DYAR and DVOA measure. Vick is first among QB's in rushing DYAR and 6th among QBs in rushing DVOA.
Pro Vick/ Anti-Brady
Michael Vick is the most exciting player in the game
I don't mean to say that MVP's should be given out solely based upon a subjective feeling of pleasure a fan gets from watching an NFL player, but think about why Vick is so much fun to watch- it's because he's been such a great passer as well as a great runner. Which means, as a defense, you have to account for Vick running as well as passing, which adds a huge strain to a defense. Especially when Vick is elite at doing both. And it's THAT reason that makes Vick a legitimate MVP candidate.
Although it's "easier" to scheme for Tom Brady because you know he's going to pass, it's still hard to execute. But because Vick is great at multiple aspects of an offense it makes him so much fun to watch and so hard to play defense against. Imagine if Dan Marino and Walter Payton were on the same team how great that offense would be? Now imagine if both were the same player and you get Vick (now obviously I'm being extremely hyperbolic, but I hope you get my drift). Having a top tiered quarterback and a top tiered running back in the same player is huge benefit to any team.
Tom Brady has the better passing offensive line
I don't care if you're Joe freaking Montana, if you're playing behind say this 2010 Bears offensive line (currently ranked dead last in passing tackling) or some of the Lions offensive lines in the past, then you are not going to put up great stats. When you have time to throw, you have time to go through multiple reads and then it is much easier for you to make completions and drive your team down the field. This is Football 101 (if thought by me. This is like grad school concepts if this class is being taught by Mike Lombardi). So you can look at straight stats all you want, but any statistic is going to favor the guys with the better line. This year, Brady and Vick are on equal footing as the basics of throwing the ball to a receiver to get 1st downs/touchdowns, so it's the "little" things like offensive line that really make the difference.
This year, the Patriots have the 6th best passing offensive line versus the Eagles who have the 27th best. That's a huge disparity and like Aaron Rodgers last year, it's a great accomplishment to put up elite numbers while having constant pressure in your face. And it's Vick's mobility that helps him get past a bad offensive line. If Brady played behind the Eagles line and Vick behind the Patriots line, then I'm sure Vick would put up passing numbers.
Unfortunately, that's pure conjecture. But the fact that Vick has the far inferior line gives him a great boost.
Vick has the better TD rate
I took into account both rushing TDs and passing TDs by each player. Brady currently has 35 total TDs (1 rushing) compared to Vick that has 30 total touchdowns (9 rushing). But Brady has played in three more games than Vick.
Currently, Brady has scored 2.33 TD/game versus Vick who has 2.50 TD/game- which gives the edge to Vick.
After I wrote the Brady bit I was going to conclude that Brady deserves the MVP but after finishing this article as a whole, I'm still conflicted. Even if you have a personal preference one way or the other, as long as either Vick or Brady is crowned MVP, the voters made the correct choice.
Chris Johnson Gets F%*@ed In The A$$
The Tennessee Titan ran for over 2,000 yards in a single season and doesn't even garnish any MVP votes. As much as I would have loved for Johnson to get the MVP and as much as he deserved it, I wouldn't mind it as much if both him and Manning both got a lot of votes- like what the NL ROY votes looked like with Tulo and Ryan Braun. Yes Manning had a great year and I have no problem with the MVP going to him. But for Johnson to not gain A SINGLE VOTE. Really!? What the hell AP, that's some bull right there. If having one of the greatest rushing seasons for ANY running back can't even get you ONE vote, then I guess being Brett Favre is the only other criteria to get votes.
I understand that the Titans missed the playoffs and it was probably more Vince Young than Johnson's doing that the Titans won as many games as they did- but how is the Titans win loss record anywhere close to being Johnson's fault. The Titans did not lose games because of Chris Johnson but he's being punished like he did.
Chris Johnson Wants To Be MVP
On NFL Live Today, one analyst (who are normally good) said that the MVP is going to go to a quarterback this year. Why? Why has that assumption already been made. The analysts (I believe it was Merrill Hodge but I forget exactly) said it was either going to go to Brees, Manning, or Favre? What? I thought football was past the idea that wins automatically equate to MVP votes? MVP should go to the best player. And how do you determine the best player, by using statistics! Baseball has already gotten past this by voting Pujols as the MVP last year, even though he couldn't pitch well enough to make it to the playoffs and by voting in Zack Grieke who was on the second worst team in baseball and "only" had 15 wins. Football I thought was already there. Yes, the three best teams are the Saints, Colts, and Favre, and yes, all of them are having a fantastic year, and yes, all are huge contributors to why their team is doing well, but that doesn't mean they AUTOMATICALLY get to be MVP. The reason is doesn't make them an automatic, is because of Chris Johnson.
Even though the Tennessee Titans have a losing record (5-6), they still have a shot at the playoffs. If they make it in, Johnson will get more votes because his team made the playoffs. But even if the Titans do make the playoffs, football writers will probably credit Vince Young more than Johnson. And if they don't (and I personally think the Titans have dug themselves into too deep of a hole playing the crappy Kerry Collins to start the season), Johnson's MVP chances will also be hurt. But why haven't more people talked about him this year?
I haven't fully looked into who I think should be the MVP this year, and there still is four more games to go, but Johnson should be near or at the top of everybody's list. Johnson said today that he wants to be MVP this year, and it's hard to find an argument right now why he shouldn't be the NFL MVP. I was watching the MNF game between Tennessee and Houston and Johnson is on pace to have the most rushing yards ever by a RB in a single season. While this stat will be helped by the longer season Johnson plays in versus the greats like Peyton, Brown, and the record holder Dickerson in the past, it's still quite an accomplishment if and when he accomplished this feat. Even if Johnson doesn't break the record, he's still amazing.
The biggest factor I look for in a RB is the run blocking of the offensive line because that is the single biggest causal factor to how good a RB is- and to Johnson's benefit, his O-line is awful. Tennessee ranks 25th out of 32 teams. So Johnson is able to produce, and come up big, despite this huge detriment. Johnson ranks first in rushing yards and first in YPC. He gets on average 6.4 YPC carry. Considering you only need 10 yards to get a first down, the Titans can just rush Johnson and will barely see third downs is seems like! TBO told me Johnson already had three TD run over 85+ yards and in t-4th in TDs. Obviously Johnson is very efficient ranking 2nd in DVOA and DYAR. Johnson also is able to catch the ball and doesn't fumble (unlike SOME people. Yes, I'm looking at you All Day).
Johnson is very good and I hope football writers and voters do take a serious look at Johnson instead if automatically coming to the conclusion that a QB should win it. Again, I'm not saying Johnson SHOULD win it, but he absolutely needs to be in the conversation more.
Although I do think the fact that he looks like an alien should be a good enough reason to not vote him in for MVP.
Even though the Tennessee Titans have a losing record (5-6), they still have a shot at the playoffs. If they make it in, Johnson will get more votes because his team made the playoffs. But even if the Titans do make the playoffs, football writers will probably credit Vince Young more than Johnson. And if they don't (and I personally think the Titans have dug themselves into too deep of a hole playing the crappy Kerry Collins to start the season), Johnson's MVP chances will also be hurt. But why haven't more people talked about him this year?
I haven't fully looked into who I think should be the MVP this year, and there still is four more games to go, but Johnson should be near or at the top of everybody's list. Johnson said today that he wants to be MVP this year, and it's hard to find an argument right now why he shouldn't be the NFL MVP. I was watching the MNF game between Tennessee and Houston and Johnson is on pace to have the most rushing yards ever by a RB in a single season. While this stat will be helped by the longer season Johnson plays in versus the greats like Peyton, Brown, and the record holder Dickerson in the past, it's still quite an accomplishment if and when he accomplished this feat. Even if Johnson doesn't break the record, he's still amazing.
The biggest factor I look for in a RB is the run blocking of the offensive line because that is the single biggest causal factor to how good a RB is- and to Johnson's benefit, his O-line is awful. Tennessee ranks 25th out of 32 teams. So Johnson is able to produce, and come up big, despite this huge detriment. Johnson ranks first in rushing yards and first in YPC. He gets on average 6.4 YPC carry. Considering you only need 10 yards to get a first down, the Titans can just rush Johnson and will barely see third downs is seems like! TBO told me Johnson already had three TD run over 85+ yards and in t-4th in TDs. Obviously Johnson is very efficient ranking 2nd in DVOA and DYAR. Johnson also is able to catch the ball and doesn't fumble (unlike SOME people. Yes, I'm looking at you All Day).
Johnson is very good and I hope football writers and voters do take a serious look at Johnson instead if automatically coming to the conclusion that a QB should win it. Again, I'm not saying Johnson SHOULD win it, but he absolutely needs to be in the conversation more.
Although I do think the fact that he looks like an alien should be a good enough reason to not vote him in for MVP.
