The original title was "A Quick Reggie Bush Rant" but after seeing how much I've typed, I had to delete the 'quick' part.
Much has been made this year about the New Orleans offense. This year the Saints rank 18th in points per game. Right below the Joe Flacco led Ravens and right above the Ryan Fitzpatrick led Bills. With Drew Brees and the wide out talent this team has, how the hell are they only 18th?
Well, ESPN has the answer- the lack of Reggie Bush. They claim because Reggie Bush is such an explosive talent that defenses have to account for him whenever he's on the field. But with him out due to injury, defenses can focus more on Brees, send more guys back in coverage which messes up Drew Brees. To help ESPN prove their point, they show one play in which Reggie Bush is in the game and how the defense is set up and reacts. Then they cut right to another play a few weeks later (sans Bush) and the opposing team has a better defense for the Saints. Two plays to prove their point.
My reaction:
WHAT!? REGGIE BUSH IS NOT A GOOD FOOTBALL PLAYER. THIS LOGIC DOES NOT MAKE SENSE. THIS IS BY THE FAR ONE OF THE STUPIDEST THINGS NFL ANALYSTS HAVE SAID! THIS ANGERS ME GREATLY. WHY ARE WE YELLING?
I will concede a few things. 1) Reggie Bush does have great athleticism and talent. 2) On any given play, Bush does have the capability to take the ball and score a touchdown. 3) Reggie Bush was healthy in the year and now he's injured. 4) He was a great college running back.
Now here's my retort. First, on any given play, ANY skill player has the potential to score a long touchdown. Thomas Jones proved that last weekend with a 70 yard run. Matt Forte has this ability. But who cares, they are still an NFL offensive player. I'm pretty sure teams aren't shaking in the boots whenever Matt Forte has the ball. Yet he still has this amazing ability to be awesome in open space.
The main thing that ESPN is overlooking is that the Saints BEST running back- Pierre Thomas- is also injured. Both Bush and Thomas are out leaving the Brandon Jackson-esque Chris Ivory in to play. And even comparing Ivory to Jackson is an insult to Jackson.
The same two shots ESPN uses for Bush- I bet they could also use for Pierre Thomas. Plus, I'm pretty sure the rest of the league has caught up with Reggie Bush. They are fully aware after that four plus years, he doesn't nearly produce the same as when he was in college. I'm pretty sure that when a team is looking at film, they notice Pierre Thomas is the better running back. Throughout Thomas' entire career in NO, he has proven to be the better running back.
I agree that not having a legitimate running game does hurt Drew Brees and his ability to score points. I agree the lack of a running threat not only hurt play action plays (and let's be honest, the only reason teams run nowadays is to set up the play action) but the overall passing offense. But Reggie Bush alone does not constitute a legitimate running game.
And by the way, it's not like Reggie Bush has been the picture of health in his NFL career. He started, 8, 10, 8, 9 games respectively and he's only played in all 16 games once- his rookie year. The Saints have played without Reggie Bush before and yet still have had a prolific offense.
I still think ESPN has it in their heads that Reggie Bush is still the Heisman talent he was while at USC. During Bush's final year, ESPN jerked off to Reggie like what Kim used to do. (I apologize for the lewd and vulgar). But that praise should have declined at this point in Bush's career.
ESPN's logic just does not add up. The have a premise: Reggie Bush is injured and not playing. This is true. They have a conclusion: The Saints are not scoring that many points. This is also true. But to say Statement A is the reason for Statement B is the quintessential logical fallacy. I agree Reggie Bush is a lot better than any back the Saints can currently start, but I refuse to believe that he alone is the reason for the Saints mediocre offensive play.
Showing posts with label Pierre Thomas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pierre Thomas. Show all posts
Why Do The Saints Hate Pierre Thomas?
I made no apologies for my love of Illinois players. In my 2009 version of love/hate, I gave all my love towards Illinois players. Now there's so few that I essentially said I liked Thomas, Rashard Mendenhall, and Neil Rackers. I also have made no apologies for my love of Pierre Thomas.
However saying that, I will not be drafting Pierre Thomas this year in fantasy.
The reason for this is because it seems the Saints do not want to give Thomas any carries to make him as fantasy relevant as he should be.
On an extremely basic level, RB fantasy success = talent + playing time. You can be a crappy talent but get a lot of playing time (a la L.T.), you can be an awesome talent but not get a lot of playing time (a la Jamaal Charles), or you can get a lot of playing time and be extremely talented (a la Chris Johnson).
This year, more than any other year in recent memory, teams are starting to go to a timeshare. This obviously affects playing time to a lot of RBs (hard to get carries when your 'back up' is also getting carries). This would seem to actually increase Thomas' value because so many talented RBs that because Thomas is essentially more talented than the vast vast vast majority of timeshared RBs, he will have a lot of fantasy value.
The top 8 RBs (according to ADP) on MockDraftCentral.com are guys with little no significant backs ups (Johnson, AD, MJD, Rice, Gore, Turner, Jackson, and Mendenhall respectfully) and 11 out of the top 13 (add to the previous list Matthews, Benson, and Grant) have no significant back ups and the 10th best RB (Greene) has a significant back up (LT) but will still get carries like he had none.
This logically makes sense. First, the vast majority of the guys have the talent to be a legit #1 RB which makes their teams feel like they don't need to go out and get another RB. Secondly, these guys are not going to have their carries vultured away which means even if there are guys that are more talented than them, it won't matter for fantasy purposes because they'll still get the carries to get yards which is all you really care about in fantasy (and TD's obviously).
But sitting outside the top 15 (ranked 16th) is Pierre Thomas. ESPN.com ranks Thomas 18th. This makes sense, because the Saints seem to refuse to give Thomas carries. But why?
Last year, Thomas was t-4th in Yards Per Attempt (with 5.4), ranked 5th in DYAR (a football sabermetric stat evaluating how much total value a RB has), and FIRST in DVOA (a football sabermtric stat evaluating how valuable a RB is per play). (SIDENOTE: Football sabermetrics also evaluates a RBs success vs. how tough of a defense he's playing). It was these reasons that I thought last year Pierre Thomas deserved to be a pro bowler over Adrian Peterson who ranked 12th among RBs in DYAR and 23rd in DVOA.
Two years ago, Thomas ranked 6th among RBs in YPC (with 4.8), 11th in DYAR, and 4th in DVOA.
Clearly Pierre Thomas has talent. While I never saw it in college, he has proven it for at least two years in the pros. He also proven to be a better back than the scumbag-Kardashian dating-overhyped-#2 overall P.O.S. known as Reggie Bush. And he has proven this time and time again. Thomas is also above average at catching the ball too (Thomas had the highest catch rate among any running back with at least 25 passes) making him valuable on third down plays and good enough for that high flying high powered Who Dat attack.
Yet despite all these high remarks and praises, Thomas ended up as the 20th best fantasy back behind Matt Forte, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Jamaal Charles (who only started eight games last year versus Thomas' 14).
The reason for this: Thomas ranked 33rd in rushing attempts. Hell, his teammate Mike Bell got 25 more carries than him.
Guys who got more carries than Thomas last year: Jerome Harrison, Jamaal Charles, Cadillac Williams, Laurence Maroney, Julius Jones, and Brandon Jacobs, just to name a few. If you even remember anything about football in 2009, you should know just how ridiculous it is that these guys got more attempts than Pierre Thomas- who has shown to be a top 10 talent caliber running back.
Even though Mike Bell has gone to Philadelphia, New Orleans has replaced him with Ladell Betts (believe me, these two are on the same plane, talent wise). The Saints have tried so hard to get a 3rd running back this off season. First it was Lynell Hamilton, but when he got injured (seems like a sign from God to me) N.O. went out and got Betts.
It's so frustrating as a Pierre Thomas fan, to see a man who has more talent than guys like Ryan Grant and Cedric Benson, a man who if he were playing on the Minnesota Vikings or Jacksonville Jaguars would be a consensus top 5 fantasy running back, get so little respect on a team who was more than willing to give him a chance to begin with.
If you draft Thomas to play in your flex position, then he's probably perfect, but because the Saints seem stubborn and unwilling to even give Thomas 12-15 carries a game (he averaged 10.5 in 2009), I can't in good faith expect a lot from Thomas. And it pains me to say it, but I can't draft him.
I'm a firm believer that if you have a stud RB, you try and give 17-20 carries a game (the extremely rare exception being Williams and The Daily Show in Carolina) And Pierre Thomas is a stud RB. And Reggie Bush is not. Yet the Saints do not want to do that. So seriously Sean Peyton, why do you hate Pierre Thomas so much?
However saying that, I will not be drafting Pierre Thomas this year in fantasy.
The reason for this is because it seems the Saints do not want to give Thomas any carries to make him as fantasy relevant as he should be.
On an extremely basic level, RB fantasy success = talent + playing time. You can be a crappy talent but get a lot of playing time (a la L.T.), you can be an awesome talent but not get a lot of playing time (a la Jamaal Charles), or you can get a lot of playing time and be extremely talented (a la Chris Johnson).
This year, more than any other year in recent memory, teams are starting to go to a timeshare. This obviously affects playing time to a lot of RBs (hard to get carries when your 'back up' is also getting carries). This would seem to actually increase Thomas' value because so many talented RBs that because Thomas is essentially more talented than the vast vast vast majority of timeshared RBs, he will have a lot of fantasy value.
The top 8 RBs (according to ADP) on MockDraftCentral.com are guys with little no significant backs ups (Johnson, AD, MJD, Rice, Gore, Turner, Jackson, and Mendenhall respectfully) and 11 out of the top 13 (add to the previous list Matthews, Benson, and Grant) have no significant back ups and the 10th best RB (Greene) has a significant back up (LT) but will still get carries like he had none.
This logically makes sense. First, the vast majority of the guys have the talent to be a legit #1 RB which makes their teams feel like they don't need to go out and get another RB. Secondly, these guys are not going to have their carries vultured away which means even if there are guys that are more talented than them, it won't matter for fantasy purposes because they'll still get the carries to get yards which is all you really care about in fantasy (and TD's obviously).
But sitting outside the top 15 (ranked 16th) is Pierre Thomas. ESPN.com ranks Thomas 18th. This makes sense, because the Saints seem to refuse to give Thomas carries. But why?
Last year, Thomas was t-4th in Yards Per Attempt (with 5.4), ranked 5th in DYAR (a football sabermetric stat evaluating how much total value a RB has), and FIRST in DVOA (a football sabermtric stat evaluating how valuable a RB is per play). (SIDENOTE: Football sabermetrics also evaluates a RBs success vs. how tough of a defense he's playing). It was these reasons that I thought last year Pierre Thomas deserved to be a pro bowler over Adrian Peterson who ranked 12th among RBs in DYAR and 23rd in DVOA.
Two years ago, Thomas ranked 6th among RBs in YPC (with 4.8), 11th in DYAR, and 4th in DVOA.
Clearly Pierre Thomas has talent. While I never saw it in college, he has proven it for at least two years in the pros. He also proven to be a better back than the scumbag-Kardashian dating-overhyped-#2 overall P.O.S. known as Reggie Bush. And he has proven this time and time again. Thomas is also above average at catching the ball too (Thomas had the highest catch rate among any running back with at least 25 passes) making him valuable on third down plays and good enough for that high flying high powered Who Dat attack.
Yet despite all these high remarks and praises, Thomas ended up as the 20th best fantasy back behind Matt Forte, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Jamaal Charles (who only started eight games last year versus Thomas' 14).
The reason for this: Thomas ranked 33rd in rushing attempts. Hell, his teammate Mike Bell got 25 more carries than him.
Guys who got more carries than Thomas last year: Jerome Harrison, Jamaal Charles, Cadillac Williams, Laurence Maroney, Julius Jones, and Brandon Jacobs, just to name a few. If you even remember anything about football in 2009, you should know just how ridiculous it is that these guys got more attempts than Pierre Thomas- who has shown to be a top 10 talent caliber running back.
Even though Mike Bell has gone to Philadelphia, New Orleans has replaced him with Ladell Betts (believe me, these two are on the same plane, talent wise). The Saints have tried so hard to get a 3rd running back this off season. First it was Lynell Hamilton, but when he got injured (seems like a sign from God to me) N.O. went out and got Betts.
It's so frustrating as a Pierre Thomas fan, to see a man who has more talent than guys like Ryan Grant and Cedric Benson, a man who if he were playing on the Minnesota Vikings or Jacksonville Jaguars would be a consensus top 5 fantasy running back, get so little respect on a team who was more than willing to give him a chance to begin with.
If you draft Thomas to play in your flex position, then he's probably perfect, but because the Saints seem stubborn and unwilling to even give Thomas 12-15 carries a game (he averaged 10.5 in 2009), I can't in good faith expect a lot from Thomas. And it pains me to say it, but I can't draft him.
I'm a firm believer that if you have a stud RB, you try and give 17-20 carries a game (the extremely rare exception being Williams and The Daily Show in Carolina) And Pierre Thomas is a stud RB. And Reggie Bush is not. Yet the Saints do not want to do that. So seriously Sean Peyton, why do you hate Pierre Thomas so much?
I Was Right On Pierre Thomas
Pierre Thomas is a great talent. I've preached the greatness of Thomas since he was the back up to the crappy Reggie Bush. Since the beginning of the season, I expected great things from Thomas. Not only in that he's an Illini alum, but he was named the starter. Because of this, I expected him to do very well in fantasy. So I decided to take a look at Pierre Thomas to see how well he's going.
Currently, Thomas is tied for 3rd in YPC with 5.3. He's also first in DVOA, which means that per play, Thomas has the best value out of any other RB. Even better than the great Chris Johnson (who's #2) and 7th in DYAR (total value). But Thomas only ranks 16th among all fantasy RBs which means I gonna lose my dumb board bet that Thomas will be a top 12 RB. So what gives?
The reason is because coach Sean Peyton is dumb is not giving Thomas enough carries. In fairness, Mike Bell is doing pretty well and stupid Reggie Bush is even doing well in the passing game. Plus, when you have Drew Brees, it's kind of hard to find carries for a RB, I guess. But Pierre Thomas is a top ten talent, maybe even top five and is getting shit for carries. Thomas ranks 33 among all RBs in carries. Mike Bell is getting more carries than Thomas. Beanie Wells, Ahmad Bradshaw, Larry Johnson, Cadallic Williams, Jamal Lewis, and Laurence Maroney all have more carries than Pierre Thomas. That's just unacceptable.
I personally am not a big fan of this two running back system. If you have a stud RB, you should play them. Correll Buckhalter should be starting and Knowshon Moreno should be sitting on the bench. I even think Jonathan Stewart should just be traded because DeAngelo Williams should be getting 20-25 carries a game. And Pierre Thomas should be getting at least 15-20 carries a game and Bush and Bell should really not be getting any.
So I was right about the talent that is Pierre Thomas, but stupid Sean Peyton let me down about Thomas' fantasy value.
Currently, Thomas is tied for 3rd in YPC with 5.3. He's also first in DVOA, which means that per play, Thomas has the best value out of any other RB. Even better than the great Chris Johnson (who's #2) and 7th in DYAR (total value). But Thomas only ranks 16th among all fantasy RBs which means I gonna lose my dumb board bet that Thomas will be a top 12 RB. So what gives?
The reason is because coach Sean Peyton is dumb is not giving Thomas enough carries. In fairness, Mike Bell is doing pretty well and stupid Reggie Bush is even doing well in the passing game. Plus, when you have Drew Brees, it's kind of hard to find carries for a RB, I guess. But Pierre Thomas is a top ten talent, maybe even top five and is getting shit for carries. Thomas ranks 33 among all RBs in carries. Mike Bell is getting more carries than Thomas. Beanie Wells, Ahmad Bradshaw, Larry Johnson, Cadallic Williams, Jamal Lewis, and Laurence Maroney all have more carries than Pierre Thomas. That's just unacceptable.
I personally am not a big fan of this two running back system. If you have a stud RB, you should play them. Correll Buckhalter should be starting and Knowshon Moreno should be sitting on the bench. I even think Jonathan Stewart should just be traded because DeAngelo Williams should be getting 20-25 carries a game. And Pierre Thomas should be getting at least 15-20 carries a game and Bush and Bell should really not be getting any.
So I was right about the talent that is Pierre Thomas, but stupid Sean Peyton let me down about Thomas' fantasy value.
Why I Hate Reggie Bush
I was looking on ESPN.com and there is an article in the NFL section still praising Reggie Bush and staying we should stop calling him a bust. Their argument is because of the tandem back system, Bush's numbers are deflated and thus people are judging him wrong. First of all, the Tennessee combo of Smash and Dash did very well last. Derrick Ward and Brandon Jacobs both got over 1000 yards last season. Carolina's Double Trouble of rookie Jonathan Stewart and should-have-been MVP DeAngelo Williams were very successful splitting time. Hell, even AP loses SOME snaps to Chester Taylor and still manages to be awesome. So there's no reason a tandem back system can't be successful for one individual player.
Secondly, by comparing other Saints RBs, I will show that Reggie Bush just flat out sucks. I wrote this is a comment but I feel a post is necessary, REGGIE BUSH SUCKS. When you compare the numbers of Bush to his teammate Pierre Thomas, you can see just how bad Bush is. See, both Thomas and Bush have the same offensive line in front of them. Normally, when you compare RBs, it becomes an unfair comparison because one RB may have a better O-line and thus make a RB look better, But when two backs have the same O-line, that means the difference numbers as ALL running back talent.
Last year. Pierre Thomas was 11th overall in DYAR and 4th overall in DVOA. This means that overall, Thomas was the 11th best overall back, and PER PLAY, he was the fourth best. So if you had to run one play, there was only three NFL backs you would prefer to have over Thomas. Then compare him to Reggie Bush. Bush was 41st in both DVOA and DYAR, 9th to last of all RBs who had significant amount of carries. Here are some backs last year that were better than Reggie Bush: Edge, Run DMC, Earnest Graham, Maurice Morris, Warrick Dunn, and Mewelde Moore.
And this trend is not just last year but throughout both players careers. Thomas has a better YPC, TD/G, and fumble/G in his career than Bush. Bush has never had more than 6 rushing TDs in a single season. Thomas had 9 last year. Thomas has 4 less receiving TDs than Bush, but also 165 less receptions. And although Thomas has been thrown to much much less and caught much much less passes than Bush, his yards per catch in his career is better. Thomas had about 20 less receptions last year and still had a better yards per catch.
However, I will give Bush some credit, he is a better kick returner than Thomas.
Pierre Thomas was undrafted free agent from Illinois that was decent at best. Reggie Bush was one of the greatest college football RBs ever, if not college football players ever, and was the #2 pick in the draft. Yet for some reason, in essentially every facet of the game, Pierre Thomas has shown to be a better running back than Reggie Bush. And both are on the same team with essentially the same players throwing and blocking for them. There is absolutely no excuse for Bush's actions because essentially all other factors besides talent have been taken out of the equation. It's really hard to make the argument that straight up, Thomas has more ability and talent than Bush because there is no indicator to prove such a thing. Maybe the way Thomas played in college was more suited for the pro game, but Reggie's back up at USC, fatboy LenDale White, has also had proven success in the NFL.
So, I believe the only rational conclusion to come to, is that: Reggie Bush sucks he was way too over-hyped there are obvious flaws in the way NFL scouts draft if Bush went #2 overall the Houston Texans are now geniuses for passing over Bush and Pierre Thomas should start for the New Orleans Saints.
Oh, did I mention that Reggie Bush sucks?
Secondly, by comparing other Saints RBs, I will show that Reggie Bush just flat out sucks. I wrote this is a comment but I feel a post is necessary, REGGIE BUSH SUCKS. When you compare the numbers of Bush to his teammate Pierre Thomas, you can see just how bad Bush is. See, both Thomas and Bush have the same offensive line in front of them. Normally, when you compare RBs, it becomes an unfair comparison because one RB may have a better O-line and thus make a RB look better, But when two backs have the same O-line, that means the difference numbers as ALL running back talent.
Last year. Pierre Thomas was 11th overall in DYAR and 4th overall in DVOA. This means that overall, Thomas was the 11th best overall back, and PER PLAY, he was the fourth best. So if you had to run one play, there was only three NFL backs you would prefer to have over Thomas. Then compare him to Reggie Bush. Bush was 41st in both DVOA and DYAR, 9th to last of all RBs who had significant amount of carries. Here are some backs last year that were better than Reggie Bush: Edge, Run DMC, Earnest Graham, Maurice Morris, Warrick Dunn, and Mewelde Moore.
And this trend is not just last year but throughout both players careers. Thomas has a better YPC, TD/G, and fumble/G in his career than Bush. Bush has never had more than 6 rushing TDs in a single season. Thomas had 9 last year. Thomas has 4 less receiving TDs than Bush, but also 165 less receptions. And although Thomas has been thrown to much much less and caught much much less passes than Bush, his yards per catch in his career is better. Thomas had about 20 less receptions last year and still had a better yards per catch.
However, I will give Bush some credit, he is a better kick returner than Thomas.
Pierre Thomas was undrafted free agent from Illinois that was decent at best. Reggie Bush was one of the greatest college football RBs ever, if not college football players ever, and was the #2 pick in the draft. Yet for some reason, in essentially every facet of the game, Pierre Thomas has shown to be a better running back than Reggie Bush. And both are on the same team with essentially the same players throwing and blocking for them. There is absolutely no excuse for Bush's actions because essentially all other factors besides talent have been taken out of the equation. It's really hard to make the argument that straight up, Thomas has more ability and talent than Bush because there is no indicator to prove such a thing. Maybe the way Thomas played in college was more suited for the pro game, but Reggie's back up at USC, fatboy LenDale White, has also had proven success in the NFL.
So, I believe the only rational conclusion to come to, is that: Reggie Bush sucks he was way too over-hyped there are obvious flaws in the way NFL scouts draft if Bush went #2 overall the Houston Texans are now geniuses for passing over Bush and Pierre Thomas should start for the New Orleans Saints.
Oh, did I mention that Reggie Bush sucks?
