- Roy Halladay has quietly been the best pitcher in the AL not named Santana this decade. No exception today. Cliff Lee is one loss shy of last year's total and the Tribe is winless. I can already see Wood and Derosa back in Cubby Blue
- Justin Verlander with a rare quality start and Rodney is officially the new closer.
- Ryan Doumit hitting cleanup with a granny and Paul Maholm continuing his stellar pitching from last year.
- Twins are averaging 8 runs in wins and .33 runs in losses. Today was a loss as Bartolo Colon goes 6 shutout. He is the Angel Cabrera of baseball. The white sox have had 4 different lead-off and 2nd hitters this year.
- Jack Cust is on-basing .619, of course he is. The debute of Cahill, Anderson, and Outman was disappointing. Maybe time to put Gallagher back in the rotation.
- Papelbon needed 39 pitches for the save, while David Ortiz is off to the same start as last year. If Ortiz ever makes it to the HOF, Manny should stand behind him during his speach so everyone knows who got him there.
- 2 words, Albert Pujols. Granny and a 3-run bomb. Wainwright and Carpenter do not allow a run in first starts back from injury
- Livan Hernendez was good today, but should be released in the near future. Hard to get by with 80 mph stuff
- Kenshine Kawakame debutes for the Braves with 8K in 6IP. Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano are both finally healthy.
- Melvin Mora with a granny and Guthrie with 6 shutout innings. O's just keep hitting.
- The Cubs are officially the clutchiest team in the history of sports as Soriano hits 2 run bomb in 9th. Cubsfan3evr should be stoked. Lee and Bradley are hitting a combined .154 and Marmol is apparently the new closer, or until they finally play at home.
- Dirty 30 is the Yankees MVP. Who knew? And CC Sabathia earns his check without allowing a run.
- Chris Iannetta is much better than Yorvit Torrealba yet they still split playing time. What gives?
- The Dodgers look like a very dangerous team that could build on last year and contend for the pennant. They went from having no offense to one of the best, most balanced one's in the league.
- Hank Blanco goes deep, twice! and peavy pitches into the 9th. Break up the padres!
Box Score Tonight: April 11
I've been advised not to make drastic generalizations based on single game performances. Sure. I'm as sure of that as i am that the ShamWow absorbs 20X more water than a normal towel.
Ken Kadokura
The Chicago Cubs invited Ken Kadokura to Spring Training with a chance to make the team. He was reassigned to minor league camp on March 18th after going 1-0 with a 4.26 era in 6 games, but wasn't that impressive. I came across this video from his days of playing in Japan.
ShamWow guy arrested for ShamPowing a prostitute in the face
This isn't remotely sports related, well it's kinda like mma/boxing, but we all love the ShamWow guy. Dont we? I mean the guy has made a fortune by selling a super mega ultra absorbing...towel. Hey, even Sexy Rexy has one. Well he got arrested for Shamwowing a prostitute in the face. And why does he look 30 years older in his mug shot as opposed to on TV?
Oh Shit, i just found the pic of the girl he massacred.
Box Score Tonight: April 10
Let's see what goodies we had tonight.
- Miguel Cabrera well on his way to the triple crown. Granderson looks prone to repeat his 20-20-20-20 2007 season.
- Why is Anna Benson married to Kris Benson again? He basically has Carl Pavano syndrome 5IP 7ER.
- Top prospect Adam Lind continues to rake with 11RBI, and Scott Rolen suddenly has power again? Indians can't win squat with the crap pitching they throw out there every day
- After Buster Olney said Rich Harden looks aweful and was throwing 86MPH in spring straining, he goes out and dominates 6IP 10K. Like all other ESPN baseball analysts, Buster is not immune to sucking. Stop making fun of sabermetrics just cause you cant understand it!
- Robinson Cano is having a strong start, possibly showing is .340BA in 2007 was no fluke. And why does sidney ponson still have a job? He's the John Daly of MLB
- Cole Hamels needed more rest 3IP 7ER, while Jason Marquis stepped up both on the mound and at the plate for the rocks. Dont worry, he'll still have the usual 7ERA in the second half
- I'm starting to think Evan Longoria may have a future in this game. 2 more homers giving him a MLB best 4. The Orioles once again have a greatly underrated offense.
- Marlins are 4-0 thanks to a ridiculous pitching staff. Nolasco, Johnson, Volstad, and Sanchez dominating first time through the rotation. Emelio Bonifacio is playing out of his mind. However, minor league numbers suggest he will soon reverberate to hitting .220
- Jordan Shafer just looks like a ball player, very old school, and very good. Brian McCann also lost weight and is raking at the plate
- It took Denard Span 1 game to prove he's not the 4th outfielder. Shannon Stewart type player. Twins single the white sox to death. And Joe Crede takes old team deep.
- Why does Houston think bringing in old guys: Pudge, Tejada, Erstad, Hampton is a good idea? Ludwick showing doubters that his 2008 was for realz
- Felipe Lopez has been in the bigs since 2001 and has topped 100 games twice. He out Milton Bradley's Milton Bradley.
- The Red Sox are off to a slow offensive slump. Why did they get rid of Manny again? Winning championships wasnt enough for them? Angels get an emotional win thanks to Jered Weaver's 6 shutout innings
- Brett Anderson with a solid start for the A's, minus the 5 run inning he allowed to the M's. Some guy names Jakubauskas got the win for the Mariners
- The Padres are 3-2! Break them up. Seriously, i want peavy on the cubs. Surprise surprise, Barry Zito is still overpaid. At least he looks good in a pair of jeans
Can 2009 Cubs comeback from behind?
Can 2009 Cubs comeback from behind?
The 2008 Chicago Cubs were good at coming back from behind in games. How many come from behind victories do you think the Cubs managed in 2008? The 2008 Cubs had a great group of players which didn’t care about the score and could rally no matter the deficit. I don’t know if this team can do it after the way they played today and the sloppy play. Let’s hope they start playing better. The Cubs managed 44 come from behind wins in 2008.
The 2008 Chicago Cubs were good at coming back from behind in games. How many come from behind victories do you think the Cubs managed in 2008? The 2008 Cubs had a great group of players which didn’t care about the score and could rally no matter the deficit. I don’t know if this team can do it after the way they played today and the sloppy play. Let’s hope they start playing better. The Cubs managed 44 come from behind wins in 2008.
ESPN coming local
ESPN is coming out with a website devoted to Chicago sports. I find this interesting because their coverage of Chicago sports on t.v. and their website has never been that good. For a major city they always seem to overlook us. Now their trying to provide good coverage with a website just for us called: http://espn.go.com/chicago/
It will be ESPN’s first regional website devoted to a local sport market. If the site goes well in Chicago they will try it out for other cities.
It will be ESPN’s first regional website devoted to a local sport market. If the site goes well in Chicago they will try it out for other cities.
What Happens After You Win Rookie Of The Year?
I was briefly watching ESPN recently and they shows stats on Dustin Pedroia. Last year he was the AL MVP, but it totally slipped my mind that he won Rookie of the Year (ROY) the year before. I recently wrote a post analyzing the 2009 Basketball HOF class and two of the three players won the ROY. This got me thinking, how good have recent Rookies of the Years been after they win the award? Are sports writers good at determining future success of players? Does it seem to be ROY have one great year and then fade away?
Not accounting for last year because the future hasn't happened yet to determine how good the players are, here's a list of AL and NL ROY
2007- NL Ryan Braun; AL- Dustin Pedroia
2006- NL Hanley Rameriz; AL- Justin Verlander
2005- NL Ryan Howard; AL- Houston Street
2004- NL Jason Bay; AL- Bobby Crosby
2003- NL Dontrelle Willis; AL- Angel Berroa
Some other notables that won ROY and are still playing are: Albert Pujols, Ichiro, Rafeal Furcal, Derek Jeter, Nomar, Carlos Beltran, and Kerry Wood.
Overall this is a pretty good list. Braun and Hanley are flat out amazing and will soon probably win MVPs (in fact Hanley deserved it over J-Roll), Pedroia, Howard, and Pujols have MVPs, and Jason Bay isn't amazing but he's darn good. The two Oakland selections, Street and Crosby, are unfair to say their bad because they have had careers marred by injury. The other two pitchers left, Verlander and D-Train, are somewhat enigmas. In Verlander's 3 years of pitching, he has had two damn fine years and one terrible year (last year). Dontrelle has always showed signs of decline but it seems fitting that when he was moved into the same rotation as Verlander, he blew up and was forced to play in single-A he was so bad. And as for Angel Berrea, well he never ever came close to matching getting HR and SB ever in his career.
The NBA looks like a different story. Maybe because it only has one ROY instead of two, the list of ROY are a pretty elite class.
2007- Brandon Roy
2006- Chris Paul
2005- Emeka Okafor
2004- LeBron James
2003- Amare Stoudemire
2002- Pau Gasol
James is just flat out fantastic and will win the MVP this year, Paul is a legit MVP contender (and was last year), and Gasol, Roy, and Stoudemire are damn good elite players as well. Okafor is a pretty good player as well, but is nowhere in the same category as the other five guys (although neither is the runner up in '05- Ben Gordon). However, I think it's interesting to note that there are no current MVP winner among these players- unlike the MLB.
Here's a list of offensive and defensive ROY from the NFL
2007: O- Adrian Peterson; D- Patrick Willis
2006: O- Vince Young; D- DeMeco Ryans
2005: O- Cadallac Williams; D- Shawn Merriman
2004: O- Big Ben; D- Jonathan Vilma
2003: O- Anquan Boldin; D- Terrel Suggs
The defense is a not the best of the best seemingly but all are still players any team would pay a lot of money to play for them. In fact three out of the next four defensive ROY in later years are: Julius Peppers, Brian Urlacher, and Javon Kearse. The offensive on the other hand is a bit shaky. AP is amazing and Anquan Boldin is one of the best receivers out there. But after that the list goes downhill. Big Ben is fine for the Steelers organization but as I've said in a previous post, I don't trust him. Vince Young has helped "win" games for the Titans but he's not really panning out to be worth the #3 overall pick and lost his job to fucking Kerry Collins. And as for Cadallic, after player an ungodly number of downs his rookie year, his season has been marred by injury and ineffectiveness. Other notable offensive ROY are: Clinton Portis, Edge, and Randy Moss, but in between was Mike Anderson and the A-Train Anthony Thomas
So what do these lists tell us about the players? Well for MLB it seems that offensive ROY, when healthy, pan out to be the games elite. However for pitchers, it seems to be that they peter out after a few years. Maybe it's because they were overworked so young and that's why they were so good but all that work catches up to them. Or maybe it's just dumb luck. You seem to be in good shape if you win the NBA ROY seeing as all recent winners are above average players and all but one (Okefar) can change a franchise (or at least be really really really fucking good for one). As for the NFL, like the NBA, you seem to be in good shape if you win the defensive ROY. But on the other hand, it may be good for your career if you don't win offensive ROY.
Now yes, there is obviously a sample size issue and a causality issue. I don't think these need to be explained further but obviously all my 'analysis' is subject to extreme scrutiny. But that being said I think there are some logical explanations nonetheless for these "trends".
-Offensive baseball ROY- Players go through a lot before they make it to the big leagues. They have to go through years in a minor league system, honing their craft before they can play pro. So when young guys are brought up to the majors, not only do they have years of practice but GMs have a good sense of how good a player is before he gets brought up. So if a GM sees a great player in the minors, chances are he'll be great in the majors.
-Pitching baseball ROY- as mentioned earlier, based off of nothing mind you, I think the great pitchers who earn ROY get overworked and thus what got them ROY also causes injuries and being bad.
-Basketball ROY- Good players look better on bad teams. If a team has a high draft pick, that means high draft picks go on bad teams. This allows teams to not only draft around their high draft pick in later years but it also allows the high draft pick to "do what he does" and show off, thus making him look good. Plus, the NBA talent to choose from in the college level is pretty poor anyways and you might have the #4 pick and it be worthless to you. This makes the top draft picks destined to be great anyways. I think all these factors show why ROY tend to be pretty darn good.
-Defensive football ROY- Look at all those players, all those were high draft picks. I think that is just a testament to all the talent that is out there. But mainly, I think its because a a great defensive player can shine no mater how good or bad the team is around him. If you're a great DE that can get to the QB, then who cares if the rest of your team is bad, you're still able to get sacks and be great. Although LB rely heavily on their D-line, if you're a good athletic guy, then your line in front of you really doesn't matter as long you can make tackles. Because individuals can succeed despite their team and because great teams with low draft picks can still draft quality defensive players late in the first or whatever round, that is why defensive ROY tend to be a pretty good class
-Offensive football ROY- However, unlike defensive players, rookie offensive players rely heavily on the team around them. No matter how good of a QB you are, if you get drafted to shitty team with a shitty O-line, you're gonna be kind of shitty. Hell, look at Kevin Jones last year. This kid has amazing talent but you can't look good when you have that Detroit O-line in front of you. Because great talent that gets drafted high tend to go to shitty teams, I think you tend to see a below average group of offensive ROY.
But just because you win ROY, no matter what the trend seems to be, does not mean anything for your future. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, LT, Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Kobe Bryant, Dewayne Wade, Dwight Howard, Grady Sizemore, Miguel Cabrera, and Jose Reyes have never won ROY are all among their games elite. Ozzie Guillen won ROY of the year and he's one of the worst offensive players in the HISTORY of baseball. At the other end of the spectrum, Michael Jordan, Shaq, Larry Bird, Cal Ripken Jr, Mike Piazza, Pete Rose, Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, and Lawrence Taylor all HAVE won ROY and all are some of the greatest in their sport. Obviously winning ROY doesn't mean you will be great and just because you didn't win it doesn't mean you can't be great.
So what does the future hold in store for Evan Longoria, Geovany Soto, Jerod Mayo, Matt Ryan, Kevin Durant, and Derrick Rose (cross your fingers)? Who knows. But I think it's interesting as hell to study the past to see what might occur.
Not accounting for last year because the future hasn't happened yet to determine how good the players are, here's a list of AL and NL ROY
2007- NL Ryan Braun; AL- Dustin Pedroia
2006- NL Hanley Rameriz; AL- Justin Verlander
2005- NL Ryan Howard; AL- Houston Street
2004- NL Jason Bay; AL- Bobby Crosby
2003- NL Dontrelle Willis; AL- Angel Berroa
Some other notables that won ROY and are still playing are: Albert Pujols, Ichiro, Rafeal Furcal, Derek Jeter, Nomar, Carlos Beltran, and Kerry Wood.
Overall this is a pretty good list. Braun and Hanley are flat out amazing and will soon probably win MVPs (in fact Hanley deserved it over J-Roll), Pedroia, Howard, and Pujols have MVPs, and Jason Bay isn't amazing but he's darn good. The two Oakland selections, Street and Crosby, are unfair to say their bad because they have had careers marred by injury. The other two pitchers left, Verlander and D-Train, are somewhat enigmas. In Verlander's 3 years of pitching, he has had two damn fine years and one terrible year (last year). Dontrelle has always showed signs of decline but it seems fitting that when he was moved into the same rotation as Verlander, he blew up and was forced to play in single-A he was so bad. And as for Angel Berrea, well he never ever came close to matching getting HR and SB ever in his career.
The NBA looks like a different story. Maybe because it only has one ROY instead of two, the list of ROY are a pretty elite class.
2007- Brandon Roy
2006- Chris Paul
2005- Emeka Okafor
2004- LeBron James
2003- Amare Stoudemire
2002- Pau Gasol
James is just flat out fantastic and will win the MVP this year, Paul is a legit MVP contender (and was last year), and Gasol, Roy, and Stoudemire are damn good elite players as well. Okafor is a pretty good player as well, but is nowhere in the same category as the other five guys (although neither is the runner up in '05- Ben Gordon). However, I think it's interesting to note that there are no current MVP winner among these players- unlike the MLB.
Here's a list of offensive and defensive ROY from the NFL
2007: O- Adrian Peterson; D- Patrick Willis
2006: O- Vince Young; D- DeMeco Ryans
2005: O- Cadallac Williams; D- Shawn Merriman
2004: O- Big Ben; D- Jonathan Vilma
2003: O- Anquan Boldin; D- Terrel Suggs
The defense is a not the best of the best seemingly but all are still players any team would pay a lot of money to play for them. In fact three out of the next four defensive ROY in later years are: Julius Peppers, Brian Urlacher, and Javon Kearse. The offensive on the other hand is a bit shaky. AP is amazing and Anquan Boldin is one of the best receivers out there. But after that the list goes downhill. Big Ben is fine for the Steelers organization but as I've said in a previous post, I don't trust him. Vince Young has helped "win" games for the Titans but he's not really panning out to be worth the #3 overall pick and lost his job to fucking Kerry Collins. And as for Cadallic, after player an ungodly number of downs his rookie year, his season has been marred by injury and ineffectiveness. Other notable offensive ROY are: Clinton Portis, Edge, and Randy Moss, but in between was Mike Anderson and the A-Train Anthony Thomas
So what do these lists tell us about the players? Well for MLB it seems that offensive ROY, when healthy, pan out to be the games elite. However for pitchers, it seems to be that they peter out after a few years. Maybe it's because they were overworked so young and that's why they were so good but all that work catches up to them. Or maybe it's just dumb luck. You seem to be in good shape if you win the NBA ROY seeing as all recent winners are above average players and all but one (Okefar) can change a franchise (or at least be really really really fucking good for one). As for the NFL, like the NBA, you seem to be in good shape if you win the defensive ROY. But on the other hand, it may be good for your career if you don't win offensive ROY.
Now yes, there is obviously a sample size issue and a causality issue. I don't think these need to be explained further but obviously all my 'analysis' is subject to extreme scrutiny. But that being said I think there are some logical explanations nonetheless for these "trends".
-Offensive baseball ROY- Players go through a lot before they make it to the big leagues. They have to go through years in a minor league system, honing their craft before they can play pro. So when young guys are brought up to the majors, not only do they have years of practice but GMs have a good sense of how good a player is before he gets brought up. So if a GM sees a great player in the minors, chances are he'll be great in the majors.
-Pitching baseball ROY- as mentioned earlier, based off of nothing mind you, I think the great pitchers who earn ROY get overworked and thus what got them ROY also causes injuries and being bad.
-Basketball ROY- Good players look better on bad teams. If a team has a high draft pick, that means high draft picks go on bad teams. This allows teams to not only draft around their high draft pick in later years but it also allows the high draft pick to "do what he does" and show off, thus making him look good. Plus, the NBA talent to choose from in the college level is pretty poor anyways and you might have the #4 pick and it be worthless to you. This makes the top draft picks destined to be great anyways. I think all these factors show why ROY tend to be pretty darn good.
-Defensive football ROY- Look at all those players, all those were high draft picks. I think that is just a testament to all the talent that is out there. But mainly, I think its because a a great defensive player can shine no mater how good or bad the team is around him. If you're a great DE that can get to the QB, then who cares if the rest of your team is bad, you're still able to get sacks and be great. Although LB rely heavily on their D-line, if you're a good athletic guy, then your line in front of you really doesn't matter as long you can make tackles. Because individuals can succeed despite their team and because great teams with low draft picks can still draft quality defensive players late in the first or whatever round, that is why defensive ROY tend to be a pretty good class
-Offensive football ROY- However, unlike defensive players, rookie offensive players rely heavily on the team around them. No matter how good of a QB you are, if you get drafted to shitty team with a shitty O-line, you're gonna be kind of shitty. Hell, look at Kevin Jones last year. This kid has amazing talent but you can't look good when you have that Detroit O-line in front of you. Because great talent that gets drafted high tend to go to shitty teams, I think you tend to see a below average group of offensive ROY.
But just because you win ROY, no matter what the trend seems to be, does not mean anything for your future. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, LT, Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Kobe Bryant, Dewayne Wade, Dwight Howard, Grady Sizemore, Miguel Cabrera, and Jose Reyes have never won ROY are all among their games elite. Ozzie Guillen won ROY of the year and he's one of the worst offensive players in the HISTORY of baseball. At the other end of the spectrum, Michael Jordan, Shaq, Larry Bird, Cal Ripken Jr, Mike Piazza, Pete Rose, Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, and Lawrence Taylor all HAVE won ROY and all are some of the greatest in their sport. Obviously winning ROY doesn't mean you will be great and just because you didn't win it doesn't mean you can't be great.
So what does the future hold in store for Evan Longoria, Geovany Soto, Jerod Mayo, Matt Ryan, Kevin Durant, and Derrick Rose (cross your fingers)? Who knows. But I think it's interesting as hell to study the past to see what might occur.
Box Score Tonight: April 9
I decided to start a nightly recap of the baseball box scores. I'll just share anything that i find interesting, odd, or unexpected. This may compromise the domination of my fantasy teams, but who are we kidding, i'm gonna dominate one way or another!
- The indians would have been better off if carl povano just stayed home and stole money like usual. 1 IP 9 ER...thanks for showing up.
- Grady Sizemore broke out of his mini slump with 2 homers, however, mark derosa is still looking for his first hit with the tribe
- The rangers can REALLY hit. Looks like Teagarden will split time equally with Salty. And Andrew Jones is alive hitting .600
- Dusty Baker said Votto could win the NL MVP. OPSing 1.538 will do that. As eckstein texted me today, "Votto makes me Blotto"
- Oliver Perez sucks. This is only news to Omar Minaya and his love affection with latin players
- Looking at the tigers lineup, they are either really old or really bad. Outside Miguel Cabrera and Granderson I dont see much to like.
- 2002 Jarod Washburn lives for a night. Mike Sweeney is hitting 3rd for the M's?
- AJ Burnett records the first strike out this year for a Yankee starter, while Teixeira's homer is outshined by "Dirty 30's" 5 rbi night
- Matt Garza and Evan Longoria are absolute studs!
- Chris carpenter: 7IP 1 hit. Dennys Reyes with the save? Jason Motte, no soup for you!
- White Sox managed 1 run, 7 hits in 2 games against Greinke and Davies. Did i mention the sox are really really slow?
- Matt Kemp is hitting 7th? I'm sure Joe Torre's genius has a good reason. Kershaw is gonna be Lincecum next year
- Brewers opening day starter? Ahh, sorry. We were looking for Jeff Suppan. Play again next year.
- Matt Cain got 7 runs of support. Double last year's total
- A's Angels postponed.
Nick Adenhart revisited
It's pretty chilling to check the bio page of a 22 year old baseball player and find the word deceased next to his current status.
http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=444440
This tragedy quickly reminded me of several other athletes who's careers ended far too soon. The first one was the tragic death of USC kicker Mario Danelo. Within days of winning the rose bowl, he went out to party, got drunk, fell off a cliff and died. He appeared to have a bright kicking future ahead of him halted by a tragedy.
The other situation that comes to mind is former cub Adam Greenberg. He had exactly one plate appearance in the big leagues, not even an official one, as he was hit in the head and suffered a major concussion. He was able to return to baseball, but has never made it back to the majors. The real world "field of dreams"
http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=444440
This tragedy quickly reminded me of several other athletes who's careers ended far too soon. The first one was the tragic death of USC kicker Mario Danelo. Within days of winning the rose bowl, he went out to party, got drunk, fell off a cliff and died. He appeared to have a bright kicking future ahead of him halted by a tragedy.
The other situation that comes to mind is former cub Adam Greenberg. He had exactly one plate appearance in the big leagues, not even an official one, as he was hit in the head and suffered a major concussion. He was able to return to baseball, but has never made it back to the majors. The real world "field of dreams"
Tyrus Thomas wants to be like Lebron
So i'm watching the Bulls game on TNT, when they show a short clip of a pregame interview with tyrus thomas where he says that he wants to get to the point where he is considered on the same level at Kobe, Lebron, and Chris Paul.
I do like his ambition to work and maximize his potential, but he may want to take baby steps in his effort to win the MVP. He is still extremely streaky from game to game, yet has shown the most growth this season. He has developed a jump shot that actually has a chance of going in, and has improved his inside game. Right now i recommend he strive to become a Shawn Marion/David West type player before he challenges LeBron to any one on one.
I do like his ambition to work and maximize his potential, but he may want to take baby steps in his effort to win the MVP. He is still extremely streaky from game to game, yet has shown the most growth this season. He has developed a jump shot that actually has a chance of going in, and has improved his inside game. Right now i recommend he strive to become a Shawn Marion/David West type player before he challenges LeBron to any one on one.
How slow are the white sox?
After watching just 2 white sox game this year, i have come to the observation that the sox may have the slowest team in the history of baseball. I may be exaggerating with an extremely small sample size, but speed is one of those things that you cant teach, and a team isnt suddenly going to deviate from their root mean square steal rate.
Lets take a quick look at the career steals and steals rate for the starting position players.
AJ Pierzynski: 9 Steals, 4172 PA, .216steals/PA percentage
Paul Konerko: 7 Steals, 6275 PA, .112steals/PA percentage
Chris Getz: 56 Steals, 1629 PA, 3.438 steals/PA percentage(minors)
Alexei Ramirez: 13 Steals, 512 PA, 2.539 steals/PA percentage
Josh Fields: 1 Steals, 481 PA, .208 steals/PA percentage
Carlos Quentin: 10 Steals, 1027 PA, .974 steals/PA percentage
Dewayne Wise: 21 Steals, 508 PA, 4.133 steals/PA percentage
Jermaine Dye: 46 Steals, 6644 PA, .692 steals/PA percentage
Jim Thome: 19 Steals, 9033 PA, .210 steals/PA percentage
Total: 182 Steals, 30281 PA, .601 steals/PA percentage
Not taking into account the age of most of these players, such that their 'fast' days are behind then, and taking into account Chris Getz' minor league steals rate, which should decline in the majors, the numbers work out to about 1 stolen base every 166 plate appearances for this group. Assuming an average number of 6200 plate appearances the sox are likely to accumulate this year, it works out to about 37 stolen bases for the starters. That is pitiful to say the least. I know that steals are becoming less relevant in the new age of baseball, but it also shows up in simply running the bases. Like scoring more than one run on 4 consecutive singles. The Padres only managed 36 steals last year, so this may not be the slowest team of all time, but it will be close.
Good luck playing small ball Ozzie
Lets take a quick look at the career steals and steals rate for the starting position players.
AJ Pierzynski: 9 Steals, 4172 PA, .216steals/PA percentage
Paul Konerko: 7 Steals, 6275 PA, .112steals/PA percentage
Chris Getz: 56 Steals, 1629 PA, 3.438 steals/PA percentage(minors)
Alexei Ramirez: 13 Steals, 512 PA, 2.539 steals/PA percentage
Josh Fields: 1 Steals, 481 PA, .208 steals/PA percentage
Carlos Quentin: 10 Steals, 1027 PA, .974 steals/PA percentage
Dewayne Wise: 21 Steals, 508 PA, 4.133 steals/PA percentage
Jermaine Dye: 46 Steals, 6644 PA, .692 steals/PA percentage
Jim Thome: 19 Steals, 9033 PA, .210 steals/PA percentage
Total: 182 Steals, 30281 PA, .601 steals/PA percentage
Not taking into account the age of most of these players, such that their 'fast' days are behind then, and taking into account Chris Getz' minor league steals rate, which should decline in the majors, the numbers work out to about 1 stolen base every 166 plate appearances for this group. Assuming an average number of 6200 plate appearances the sox are likely to accumulate this year, it works out to about 37 stolen bases for the starters. That is pitiful to say the least. I know that steals are becoming less relevant in the new age of baseball, but it also shows up in simply running the bases. Like scoring more than one run on 4 consecutive singles. The Padres only managed 36 steals last year, so this may not be the slowest team of all time, but it will be close.
Good luck playing small ball Ozzie
Cubs vs. Sox
On an impulse arising from an argument I recently engaged into with a statistically challenged friend who refuses to admit the 2008 Cubs were better than the 2008 White Sox (and also that the 2009 Cubs are better than the 2009 Sox), I've decided to analyze FIP (Fielding Independent ERA, a metric that projects probably future ERA trends by analyzing a pitcher's impact stats (K, BB, HR)), Value Wins (similar to WARP), fielding/batting runs and wOBA (weighted on-base average -- similar to EQA, but adjusted to reflect on-base percentage, rather than bating average) of each player, position by position, to uncontentiously prove that -- statistically speaking, not just in terms of Win-Loss records -- the 2008 Cubs were undeniably superior to the 2008 White Sox and that the 2009 Cubs pitching staff, based on future movements in ERA based on FIP, will be better than the 2009 White Sox. The DH position will be ignored and only starters will be compared. In the case of a platoon (ie, the Cubs CF position), an accumulation of both platoon member's stats will be utilized. All stats are courtesy of Fangraphs.com.
Just so we are clear, let me delineate who plays each position (courtesy of Baseball-Reference)
2008 CUBS
C-Geovany Soto
1B-Derrek Lee
2B-Mark DeRosa
SS-Ryan Theriot
3B-Aramis Ramirez
LF-Alfonso Soriano
CF-Reed Johnson/Jim Edmonds (platoon)*
RF-Kosuke Fukudome
SP1-Carlos Zambrano
SP2-Ryan Dempster
SP3-12 starts by Rich Harden/10 starts by Sean Gallagher (platoon)
SP4-Ted Lilly
SP5-Jason Marquis
RP1-Carlos Marmol
RP2-Bob Howry
RP3-Michael Wuertz
RP4-Neil Cotts
RP5-Sean Marshall
CL-Kerry Wood
*-stats will be undervalued because values for offense are not split by team and Jim Edmonds had negative production on the Padres which will lower his cumulative value for the season.
2008 WHITE SOX
C-AJ Pierzynski
1B-Paul Konerko
2B-Alexei Ramirez
SS-Orlando Cabrera
3B-Joe Crede/Juan Uribe (platoon)
LF-Carlos Quentin
CF-Nick Swisher
RF-Jermaine Dye
SP1-Mark Buehrle
SP2-Javier Vazquez
SP3-John Danks
SP4-Gavin Floyd
SP5-Jose Contreras
RP1-Matt Thorton
RP2-Octavio Dotel
RP3-Scott Linebrink
RP4-Boone Logan
RP5-Clayton Richard
CL-Bobby Jenks
Before I present the data, it is important to note that I calculated differences in performance between the two teams based on the Cubs. This means that positive differences between BATTING DATA (as well as win values for batting and pitching) shows an advantage for the Cubs, while a negative difference shows an advantage for the White Sox. Likewise, for PITCHING DATA (FIP), a negative difference favors the Cubs and a positive difference favors the White Sox.
Here is the comparison data for hitters (click image to enlarge)
Here is the data for pitching (again, click the image to enlarge):
Finally, there is the cumulative Win data:
Superficially speaking, it might appear that the difference between the two teams last season was only .7 wins in favor of the Cubs. However, a deeper delve into the numbers will reveal the true nature of why Cubs starters will perform better than Sox starters in 2009 (and why the Cubs won 8 more games than the Sox last season):
What you can observe here is the following:
1) The Cubs have a CLEAR advantage in hitting over the White Sox. A look at wOBA data shows that the Cubs outperform the Sox Runs-Created relevant areas. Although the Sox may out home run the Cubs, the Cubs outwalk, out double and under-grind (less use of sac bunts, station-to-station smallball, etc) the White Sox.
2) Now that the The Cubs have subtracted Jim Edmonds and Mark DeRosa and added Milton Bradley and Mike Fontenot, the Cubs have GREATLY improved their defensive prowess. Last season, the Cubs were the 9th most efficient team at converting balls in play into outs. On the other hand, the White Sox, who were the 11th worst at converting balls in play into outs, have only decreased the ability of their defense by moving the defensively below-average Alexei Ramirez from 2B to SS and by subtracting Orlando Cabrera (the best defensive player in baseball last season), Crede and Nick Swisher and replacing them with Josh Fields and some combination of Dewayne Wise (below average) and Brian Anderson (slightly above average). This means that going forward, Cubs pitchers are more apt to (continue to) outperform their FIPs than the White Sox.
3) The Cubs pitching staff improved this season, while the White Sox's did not. Out are 300 IP of 4.5+ FIP baseball by Bob Howry, Michael Wuertz and Jason Marquis. Sadly, out too is Kerry Wood. However, in comes pieces like Kevin Gregg (above average), Aaron Heilman (above average) and Angel Guzman (average). Furthermore, "poor" innings of baseball thrown by Gallagher and Jason Marquis last season will be replaced by average/excellent innings by Sean Marshall/Rich Harden (if healthy). The Cubs have plenty of average/above average SP depths (ie, Jeff Samardzija) around to deal with health concerns in the starting rotation (average innings+excellent innings=better than average innings). The White Sox, as I just mentioned, added no value-added pieces (Bartolo Colon? Bahahahah) and a lot of the pieces they have in place (Dotel, Floyd and even Danks to some extent) are headed towards some serious regression in 2009.
Thus, my conclusions are the following:
1) In terms of all around production, the Cubs were a better team than the White Sox in 2008, but thanks to much luck on behalf of both teams, the performance gap between the two teams last season was actually smaller than you might expect.
2) The Cubs had a SIGNIFICANTLY superior (almost ten fold) offense than the White Sox in 2008. There is really no reason to expect a notable decrease in the offense gap between the two teams in 2009 (you can add a month of Carlos Quentin, but you need to reconcile it against some possible regression in his production) because the Sox didn't really add any offensive pieces (also, the Cubs added Milton Bradley).
3) The White Sox defense was one of the worst in baseball last season and is only getting worse. The Cubs defense was top 10 in 2009 and thanks to the subtraction of Edmonds (1.5 defensive WINS below average) and DeRosa (average defensively)/additions of Mike Fontenot (+6.5 runs above average defensively in under 1000 career innings (less than a full season of work)) and Milton Bradley (+2.9 fielding runs above average). This will give the Cub's pitching staff and advantage over the White Sox pitching staff. In terms of FIP, however, both teams were roughly equal all around last season.
4) Ozzie Guillen is a terrible manager. I don't care if the White Sox did win a World Series in 2005. I don't care if he's a "fiery" son-of-a-bitch who motivates his team with untraditional, often homophobic/misogynistic antics. The mere fact that Ozzie Guillen plays station-to-station baseball (small ball), is committed to bunt, ignores the necessity of his players to get on-base regularly and liberally issues free passes in the form of "retaliation" is just going to bite him in the ass as it did in 2007. Once Ozzie stops winning, those comments he makes and actions he takes will be the icing on the cake that is him getting fired. It's also good to note, as irrelevant as it may be, that Ozzie was also (one of) the worst baseball players in the long and colorful history of baseball.
5) Flyball pitchers and The Cell are a bad combination. Gavin Floyd gave up the fifth most home runs (30 bombs in 2008) among any started in baseball last season. John Danks is a flyball pitcher (1.41 HR/9 in the minors) who cut down on his long ball big time last season thanks to a 10% increase in GB% at the expense of his FB%. While Danks is young and could easily sustain an improved HR/9 rate, logic suggests his .69 HR/9 rate last season is most likely to approve/exceed 1.00. Floyd, by the way, was the only sub-4 ERA pitcher with 29 or more home runs, thanks to an incredibly high volume of solo shots. You have to expect some serious regression there.
6) Groundball pitchers and the White Sox defense are a bad combination. Mark Buerhle is a pitch-to-contact hurler with a below average fielder at every position in the infield this season. Orlando Cabrera's +1.5 fielding wins, the best in baseball last season, and Joe Crede's +6.4 fielding runs are no longer there to bail out/balance the defensively challenged Alexei Ramirez (Steve Phillips would tell you his eyes tell him Ramirez is a solid or plus defender) and Paul Konerko. Groundball pitchers+below average defense=frowny face :(
Just so we are clear, let me delineate who plays each position (courtesy of Baseball-Reference)
2008 CUBS
C-Geovany Soto
1B-Derrek Lee
2B-Mark DeRosa
SS-Ryan Theriot
3B-Aramis Ramirez
LF-Alfonso Soriano
CF-Reed Johnson/Jim Edmonds (platoon)*
RF-Kosuke Fukudome
SP1-Carlos Zambrano
SP2-Ryan Dempster
SP3-12 starts by Rich Harden/10 starts by Sean Gallagher (platoon)
SP4-Ted Lilly
SP5-Jason Marquis
RP1-Carlos Marmol
RP2-Bob Howry
RP3-Michael Wuertz
RP4-Neil Cotts
RP5-Sean Marshall
CL-Kerry Wood
*-stats will be undervalued because values for offense are not split by team and Jim Edmonds had negative production on the Padres which will lower his cumulative value for the season.
2008 WHITE SOX
C-AJ Pierzynski
1B-Paul Konerko
2B-Alexei Ramirez
SS-Orlando Cabrera
3B-Joe Crede/Juan Uribe (platoon)
LF-Carlos Quentin
CF-Nick Swisher
RF-Jermaine Dye
SP1-Mark Buehrle
SP2-Javier Vazquez
SP3-John Danks
SP4-Gavin Floyd
SP5-Jose Contreras
RP1-Matt Thorton
RP2-Octavio Dotel
RP3-Scott Linebrink
RP4-Boone Logan
RP5-Clayton Richard
CL-Bobby Jenks
Before I present the data, it is important to note that I calculated differences in performance between the two teams based on the Cubs. This means that positive differences between BATTING DATA (as well as win values for batting and pitching) shows an advantage for the Cubs, while a negative difference shows an advantage for the White Sox. Likewise, for PITCHING DATA (FIP), a negative difference favors the Cubs and a positive difference favors the White Sox.
Here is the comparison data for hitters (click image to enlarge)
Here is the data for pitching (again, click the image to enlarge):
Finally, there is the cumulative Win data:
Superficially speaking, it might appear that the difference between the two teams last season was only .7 wins in favor of the Cubs. However, a deeper delve into the numbers will reveal the true nature of why Cubs starters will perform better than Sox starters in 2009 (and why the Cubs won 8 more games than the Sox last season):
What you can observe here is the following:
1) The Cubs have a CLEAR advantage in hitting over the White Sox. A look at wOBA data shows that the Cubs outperform the Sox Runs-Created relevant areas. Although the Sox may out home run the Cubs, the Cubs outwalk, out double and under-grind (less use of sac bunts, station-to-station smallball, etc) the White Sox.
2) Now that the The Cubs have subtracted Jim Edmonds and Mark DeRosa and added Milton Bradley and Mike Fontenot, the Cubs have GREATLY improved their defensive prowess. Last season, the Cubs were the 9th most efficient team at converting balls in play into outs. On the other hand, the White Sox, who were the 11th worst at converting balls in play into outs, have only decreased the ability of their defense by moving the defensively below-average Alexei Ramirez from 2B to SS and by subtracting Orlando Cabrera (the best defensive player in baseball last season), Crede and Nick Swisher and replacing them with Josh Fields and some combination of Dewayne Wise (below average) and Brian Anderson (slightly above average). This means that going forward, Cubs pitchers are more apt to (continue to) outperform their FIPs than the White Sox.
3) The Cubs pitching staff improved this season, while the White Sox's did not. Out are 300 IP of 4.5+ FIP baseball by Bob Howry, Michael Wuertz and Jason Marquis. Sadly, out too is Kerry Wood. However, in comes pieces like Kevin Gregg (above average), Aaron Heilman (above average) and Angel Guzman (average). Furthermore, "poor" innings of baseball thrown by Gallagher and Jason Marquis last season will be replaced by average/excellent innings by Sean Marshall/Rich Harden (if healthy). The Cubs have plenty of average/above average SP depths (ie, Jeff Samardzija) around to deal with health concerns in the starting rotation (average innings+excellent innings=better than average innings). The White Sox, as I just mentioned, added no value-added pieces (Bartolo Colon? Bahahahah) and a lot of the pieces they have in place (Dotel, Floyd and even Danks to some extent) are headed towards some serious regression in 2009.
Thus, my conclusions are the following:
1) In terms of all around production, the Cubs were a better team than the White Sox in 2008, but thanks to much luck on behalf of both teams, the performance gap between the two teams last season was actually smaller than you might expect.
2) The Cubs had a SIGNIFICANTLY superior (almost ten fold) offense than the White Sox in 2008. There is really no reason to expect a notable decrease in the offense gap between the two teams in 2009 (you can add a month of Carlos Quentin, but you need to reconcile it against some possible regression in his production) because the Sox didn't really add any offensive pieces (also, the Cubs added Milton Bradley).
3) The White Sox defense was one of the worst in baseball last season and is only getting worse. The Cubs defense was top 10 in 2009 and thanks to the subtraction of Edmonds (1.5 defensive WINS below average) and DeRosa (average defensively)/additions of Mike Fontenot (+6.5 runs above average defensively in under 1000 career innings (less than a full season of work)) and Milton Bradley (+2.9 fielding runs above average). This will give the Cub's pitching staff and advantage over the White Sox pitching staff. In terms of FIP, however, both teams were roughly equal all around last season.
4) Ozzie Guillen is a terrible manager. I don't care if the White Sox did win a World Series in 2005. I don't care if he's a "fiery" son-of-a-bitch who motivates his team with untraditional, often homophobic/misogynistic antics. The mere fact that Ozzie Guillen plays station-to-station baseball (small ball), is committed to bunt, ignores the necessity of his players to get on-base regularly and liberally issues free passes in the form of "retaliation" is just going to bite him in the ass as it did in 2007. Once Ozzie stops winning, those comments he makes and actions he takes will be the icing on the cake that is him getting fired. It's also good to note, as irrelevant as it may be, that Ozzie was also (one of) the worst baseball players in the long and colorful history of baseball.
5) Flyball pitchers and The Cell are a bad combination. Gavin Floyd gave up the fifth most home runs (30 bombs in 2008) among any started in baseball last season. John Danks is a flyball pitcher (1.41 HR/9 in the minors) who cut down on his long ball big time last season thanks to a 10% increase in GB% at the expense of his FB%. While Danks is young and could easily sustain an improved HR/9 rate, logic suggests his .69 HR/9 rate last season is most likely to approve/exceed 1.00. Floyd, by the way, was the only sub-4 ERA pitcher with 29 or more home runs, thanks to an incredibly high volume of solo shots. You have to expect some serious regression there.
6) Groundball pitchers and the White Sox defense are a bad combination. Mark Buerhle is a pitch-to-contact hurler with a below average fielder at every position in the infield this season. Orlando Cabrera's +1.5 fielding wins, the best in baseball last season, and Joe Crede's +6.4 fielding runs are no longer there to bail out/balance the defensively challenged Alexei Ramirez (Steve Phillips would tell you his eyes tell him Ramirez is a solid or plus defender) and Paul Konerko. Groundball pitchers+below average defense=frowny face :(
Canadians Can't Hold Their Liquor
Blue Jays fans were denied the elixir of baseball versus the Tigers during last night's game (in addition to two other baseball games later in the season) due to
No worries, however, drunken Blue Jays fans. According to the people in charge,
"...permitting drunkenness, permitting the use of narcotics, selling and serving to apparent minors, failure to request approved identification and permitting illegal liquor on the premises."Apparently, the Blue Jays had their liquor license temporarily suspended for allowing a routine pattern of unruly, illegal and inappropriate behavior to occur at Roger Centre over the past few years. Highlighted is an incident last season, "after fans brawled in the stands, leading to almost 100 ejections" and a delayed season opener due to "unruly fans" who littered the field with "baseballs and debris."
No worries, however, drunken Blue Jays fans. According to the people in charge,
Fans who want to exchange their tickets for the affected dates will be allowed to, subject to availability.
The Value Of Win-Loss Records (Or Lack Thereof)
Dan Haren pitched 7 innings, 9 Ks, 0 BB, 3 H, 1 ER (0 unearned) and is about to get the loss against Colorado.
If you ever tell me that win-loss records of pitchers mean anything remotely substantive, I promise to kick you in the balls repeatedly.
If you ever tell me that win-loss records of pitchers mean anything remotely substantive, I promise to kick you in the balls repeatedly.
ESPN 1000 Gallimaufry
In contempt that Mack, Jurko and Harry were touting Gavin Floyd and John Danks as Cy Young worthy pitchers, I called in ESPN 1000 to argue.
Noting that Gavin Floyd and Danks (but Floyd in particular) are flyball pitchers in a home run park, backed up by the worse defense in baseball, I asked them "how much budweiser have you all had to drink today?"
It's ok, though, because as Mack replied (to paraphrase): "I don't care how many home runs a guy gives up if they are all solo shots."
Taking note of this stupid, stupid response, I logged into Fangraphs.com and discovered that Gavin Floyd's 30 home runs last season were tied for the fifth most amongst any starting pitchers. With the exceptions of Dave Bush (whose FIP was awful), Scott Olsen (whose FIP was even worse) and Ted Lilly (whose FIP was a very average 4.41), no pitcher who gave up 29 or more home runs last season had an ERA under 4.55 -- EXCEPT Gavin Floyd, whose FIP was 4.77.
But it's OK, because Gavin Floyd only gives up home runs when no one's on base because he wills it so; he's just clutch like that.
Noting that Gavin Floyd and Danks (but Floyd in particular) are flyball pitchers in a home run park, backed up by the worse defense in baseball, I asked them "how much budweiser have you all had to drink today?"
It's ok, though, because as Mack replied (to paraphrase): "I don't care how many home runs a guy gives up if they are all solo shots."
Taking note of this stupid, stupid response, I logged into Fangraphs.com and discovered that Gavin Floyd's 30 home runs last season were tied for the fifth most amongst any starting pitchers. With the exceptions of Dave Bush (whose FIP was awful), Scott Olsen (whose FIP was even worse) and Ted Lilly (whose FIP was a very average 4.41), no pitcher who gave up 29 or more home runs last season had an ERA under 4.55 -- EXCEPT Gavin Floyd, whose FIP was 4.77.
But it's OK, because Gavin Floyd only gives up home runs when no one's on base because he wills it so; he's just clutch like that.
Stupid Baseball Rules, Part I
Baseball currently has some pretty stupid rules so I'm sure I'll have or someone else will have a part II+ somewhere. But here's one in particular I find retarded. I'm currently watching the White Sox game in class on ESPN's Gamecast and this popped up on my screen:
Now I understand how his happened; it's in a similiar way way AJ Peirzynski got on base in that controversial game White Sox/ Angels in the 2005 ALCS- the dropped third strike (or something along those lines). But let's think about this rule- the batter struck out. It's official, within 3+ pitcher the batter is out, YET HE"S STILL GET ON BASE. What a stupid fuck rule.
M Olivio struck out swinging. M Olivio is safe at first on a wild pitch by O Dotel
Now I understand how his happened; it's in a similiar way way AJ Peirzynski got on base in that controversial game White Sox/ Angels in the 2005 ALCS- the dropped third strike (or something along those lines). But let's think about this rule- the batter struck out. It's official, within 3+ pitcher the batter is out, YET HE"S STILL GET ON BASE. What a stupid fuck rule.
WBS Doesn't Cuase Injuries... Well NOW Maybe
According to this article on ESPN.com, the WBC does not cause injuries.
There logic is because many players are healthy on Opening Day, during a WBC year, that the WBC does NOT cause injury
While I believe offensive players who get injured during the WBC could have just as easily gotten injured during a spring training game (i.e. sprained and sore muscles, David Wright fouling a pitch off of his foot), the same can not be said for pitchers.
The logic for pitchers is that because they put undue stress on their arms more so in a WBC year than a normal year, that as a season wears on, pitching during the WBC catches up with them. For example, a complaint heard about Carlos Marmol is that he's a reliever and he's supposed to pitch as least amount of innings as possible. Pitching a lot of inning in the WBC, means Marmol pitches WAY too much innings. Jake Peavy had one of his worst statistical years the year he pitched in the WBC, because extra innings means a shittier regular season.
So way to go MLB for proving your point! Awesome!
NEW YORK -- Baseball got healthy this spring.
There were 69 players on disabled lists at the start of the season Sunday, down from 106 last year and 97 in 2007. The only lower total since the major leagues expanded to 30 teams in 1998 was when there were 66 in 2006, the commissioner's office said Monday.
Rob Manfred, MLB's executive vice president of labor relations, said the figure counters those who say the World Baseball Classic causes more players to get hurt.
"It certainly does not support the theory that the WBC causes more injuries," Manfred said. "More important, the WBC injuries were, almost exclusively, the type of small injuries [oblique strains] that are common in spring training, with or without the WBC."
There logic is because many players are healthy on Opening Day, during a WBC year, that the WBC does NOT cause injury
While I believe offensive players who get injured during the WBC could have just as easily gotten injured during a spring training game (i.e. sprained and sore muscles, David Wright fouling a pitch off of his foot), the same can not be said for pitchers.
The logic for pitchers is that because they put undue stress on their arms more so in a WBC year than a normal year, that as a season wears on, pitching during the WBC catches up with them. For example, a complaint heard about Carlos Marmol is that he's a reliever and he's supposed to pitch as least amount of innings as possible. Pitching a lot of inning in the WBC, means Marmol pitches WAY too much innings. Jake Peavy had one of his worst statistical years the year he pitched in the WBC, because extra innings means a shittier regular season.
So way to go MLB for proving your point! Awesome!
Steve Phillips is making my ears bleed: part 2
My jaw just literally dropped from listening to what Steve Phillips just said while broadcasting the Mets/Reds game. I couldnt believe how he just kept going deeper and deeper into his imaginary universe. Luckily i'm tivoing the game so i can transcribe exactly what he said.
I dont think i need to FJM this crap. It's pretty self explanatory. Steve Phillips thinks that his eye is better at accumulating/condensing/rating the defensive capabilities of every baseball player in the entire league than an excel spreadsheet on a computer. He then contradicts himself by saying sometimes reputation leads people to believe things that are not true. Which obviously Phillips has done himself with Derek Jeter. He believes Jeter is awesome defensively cause of his reputation, fuck the statistics. What good have they every done for anyone.
Even if the 'eye' is better at judging players than spreadsheets, it definitely isn't Steve Phillip's 'eye' that should be doing the evaluating. Heck, he was the one who didn't 'see' that Mo Vaughn was 350 pounds when he decided to give him a garbage truck full for benjamins.
Also, who needs those guys that accumulate meaningless stats like home runs and rbi's. I'd rather have ronny cedeno who has one big grand slam against the phillies as opposed to the meaningless 110 rbi's Aramis Ramirez accumulated over the entire season. Boy does he suck!
SP: Judgements are the most important factors in baseball. There's a system out there that rated Derek Jeter the worst SS in baseball. His range is much less than it was before, but i dont think he's the worst SS in baseball. There's a system that says Chase utley is the best 2B in baseball. I think he's good, but i dont think he;s the best 2B in baseball. He's good but he's no the best. Because the statistics dont match what my eye say, it makes me doubt the veracity of any of the numbers that are part of their system.
DS: So you chose your eyes over the stats.
SP: Yeah, i do. But scouts do. It's like reputation and defense dont always walk in sync with each other...There are certain players that are number accumulators they find themselves in situations to pick up that rbi up or down 3 runs
I dont think i need to FJM this crap. It's pretty self explanatory. Steve Phillips thinks that his eye is better at accumulating/condensing/rating the defensive capabilities of every baseball player in the entire league than an excel spreadsheet on a computer. He then contradicts himself by saying sometimes reputation leads people to believe things that are not true. Which obviously Phillips has done himself with Derek Jeter. He believes Jeter is awesome defensively cause of his reputation, fuck the statistics. What good have they every done for anyone.
Even if the 'eye' is better at judging players than spreadsheets, it definitely isn't Steve Phillip's 'eye' that should be doing the evaluating. Heck, he was the one who didn't 'see' that Mo Vaughn was 350 pounds when he decided to give him a garbage truck full for benjamins.
Also, who needs those guys that accumulate meaningless stats like home runs and rbi's. I'd rather have ronny cedeno who has one big grand slam against the phillies as opposed to the meaningless 110 rbi's Aramis Ramirez accumulated over the entire season. Boy does he suck!
2009 Basketball HOF Class
The title of this post is pretty self-explanatory. Today, five member were elected into the Hall of Fame, most notably, the greatest basketball player ever: Michael Jordan. The other four are: Utah Jazz PG John Stockton, Spurs C David Robinson, Utah Jazz coach Jerry Sloan, and Rutgers (college) coach C. Vivian Stringer. I think this is a phenomenal class and here's a brief overview of the class.
-Michael Jordan, G Chicago Bulls: Not only he is loved by all of Chicago, but... by all! He was just a great player and arguable the best that have ever played so far. He led the Bulls to three straight championships, twice! His free throw rate is 9th best all time, 3rd best in the NBA in scoring, 2nd most in steals, 1st in points in the playoffs, led the league in scoring in 10 seasons (an NBA record), won 5 MVPs, one of the only players to win Defensive Player of the Year and MVP in the same year, was on the All-Defensive Team seven straight years, went to 14 All-Star games, and was the Rookie of the Year in 1984. Michael could score, make clutch shots, play defense, and he also had the ability to pass and rebound. Essentially, Jordan was just amazing.
-John Stockton, PG Utah Jazz: Stockton's big claim to fame is that he leads the NBA in assists (15, 806) and steals (3,265) (Not a bad claim to fame, huh?), He's been an All-Star ten times and been to the playoff 19 times! Stockton can also score a bit being 30th on the all time scoring list.
-David Robinson, C San Antonio Spurs: Robinson was the MVP in 1995, 10 time All-Star, Defensive Player of the Year, 4 time selection to the All-Defensive team, and was Rookie of the Year in 1990.
-Jerry Sloan, coach Utah Jazz/ Chicago Bulls: Sloan is one of the winningest coaches in history with a 1086-717 record, which is 4th best all time. He is one of only five coaches to notch over 1,000 wins. And while he never won a championship, he did make it to the big game twice. But when you're up against Jordan's Bulls, it's OK to lose. The man is a great coach and end up in the playoffs year after year after year after year
C. Vivian Stringer, coach Rutgers/ Iowa/ Cheyney State: Stringer is one of the only coaches to lead three different teams to the Final Four and is the third winningest coach in woman's college basketball.
-Michael Jordan, G Chicago Bulls: Not only he is loved by all of Chicago, but... by all! He was just a great player and arguable the best that have ever played so far. He led the Bulls to three straight championships, twice! His free throw rate is 9th best all time, 3rd best in the NBA in scoring, 2nd most in steals, 1st in points in the playoffs, led the league in scoring in 10 seasons (an NBA record), won 5 MVPs, one of the only players to win Defensive Player of the Year and MVP in the same year, was on the All-Defensive Team seven straight years, went to 14 All-Star games, and was the Rookie of the Year in 1984. Michael could score, make clutch shots, play defense, and he also had the ability to pass and rebound. Essentially, Jordan was just amazing.
-John Stockton, PG Utah Jazz: Stockton's big claim to fame is that he leads the NBA in assists (15, 806) and steals (3,265) (Not a bad claim to fame, huh?), He's been an All-Star ten times and been to the playoff 19 times! Stockton can also score a bit being 30th on the all time scoring list.
-David Robinson, C San Antonio Spurs: Robinson was the MVP in 1995, 10 time All-Star, Defensive Player of the Year, 4 time selection to the All-Defensive team, and was Rookie of the Year in 1990.
-Jerry Sloan, coach Utah Jazz/ Chicago Bulls: Sloan is one of the winningest coaches in history with a 1086-717 record, which is 4th best all time. He is one of only five coaches to notch over 1,000 wins. And while he never won a championship, he did make it to the big game twice. But when you're up against Jordan's Bulls, it's OK to lose. The man is a great coach and end up in the playoffs year after year after year after year
C. Vivian Stringer, coach Rutgers/ Iowa/ Cheyney State: Stringer is one of the only coaches to lead three different teams to the Final Four and is the third winningest coach in woman's college basketball.
Fantasyland, Version 2009, Part 2.2
In case anybody cares, here's the results from the NL Tout Wars.
According to "The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa" (Jesus, how many fantasy baseball sites are there is one of them is named this!?), Nate Ravitz from ESPN.com is predicted to win the NL, Jason Grey from ESPN.com is predicted to win the AL, and Larry Schechter from SandlotShrink.com is predicted to win the Mixed League.
1) OK, I have a website: It's called gameofinches.com! (ok there's obviously a blogspot in there but still) That's sounds like a much more official website than fucking SandlotShrink.com
2) Really, not one but TWO guys from ESPN.com win, bullshit on that horseshit. Derek Jeter's not THAT good in fantasy.
According to "The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa" (Jesus, how many fantasy baseball sites are there is one of them is named this!?), Nate Ravitz from ESPN.com is predicted to win the NL, Jason Grey from ESPN.com is predicted to win the AL, and Larry Schechter from SandlotShrink.com is predicted to win the Mixed League.
1) OK, I have a website: It's called gameofinches.com! (ok there's obviously a blogspot in there but still) That's sounds like a much more official website than fucking SandlotShrink.com
2) Really, not one but TWO guys from ESPN.com win, bullshit on that horseshit. Derek Jeter's not THAT good in fantasy.
Is Zambrano insane?
It came to my attention today just how crazy Carlos Zambrano has become after signing his massive contract. We know that he has a tendency to be fisty, just ask Michael Barrett's face. He also refuses to drink water/stop emailing his brother that leads to constant cramping in his forearm. He is also very bipolar on the mound given the fact that he threw a no-hitter last september, yet still finished the last two months with an ERA above 7.
But none of that compares to the bat-shit craziness that comes out of his mouth. Recently he said that his favorite team in baseball is the White Sox. Seriously Carlos? You couldnt pick any other team in baseball? Couldnt just say the Red Sox or Yankees or maybe even the Cubs perhaps. You know, the team that sends to a million dollar check every other Friday. Might want to reconsider your words next time, i dont care that Ozzie Guillen is your homeboy.
After a 2 day trip to the new Yankee Stadium, Carlos suggested that the Cubs tear down Wrigley Field and build a new billion dollar stadium to make Carlos feel better. Seriously Carlos? Only the most historic, renowned, loved ballpark in the entire country. You want to tear it down. I think Carlos just wants a new, bigger clubhouse so his ego can comfortably fit inside, let alone his ERA. Yes, the new stadiums are nice and pretty, but you cant replace the 80 year stench of beer that only Wrigley can provide.
Just pitch Carlos. Just pitch
Miller, Morgan, and Phillips Are Making My Ears Bleed
I have been waiting so long for Opening Day. And when it finally arrives, I have to listen to Steve Phillips, Joe Morgan, and Jon Miller. I'd rather hear nails on a chalkboard for three hours. Oh my god, it's so bad! As this site has proved, making "expert analysis" is definitely a lot of harder than it looks, especially where there is so much data to contradict valid, rational thought. But the Trifecta Announcing From Hell does not use valid, rational thought. The first inning is not even complete and here's some of the great announcing I have to look forward to:
*Chipper Jones hit a bloop to LF off a low center ball out of the strike zone* Jon Miller:
Um, I'm pretty sure it's because of Chipper's top Line Drive Percentage and the fact that doesn't strike out is the reason he, or anyone else is able to hit for THAT high of an average, not because he hits bloop singles. If bloop singles was the reason people had a high AVG, then maybe I should pick up Michael Bourne in fantasy leagues...
*Chipper is at-bat* Jon Miller:
Really? Just now people are starting to use? How far out of baseball are you that OPS is still a statistic that's rarely used!?
*Brain McCann is at bat batting fourth after Chipper* Steve Phillips:
What!? Yes the Braves do not have that guy who can hit "40 Home Runs". Here's a list of teams that did not have a 40 HR hitter last year: Chicago, Tigers, Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Boston, New York, Tampa Bay, Oakland, LA, Toronto, Seattle, and Texas. And that's just the American League! Next year there is only gonna be probably about four teams that will have a 40+ HR guy: Milwaukee (Ryan Braun), Phillies (Ryan Howard), Cardinals (Albert Pujols), and Nationals (Adam Dunn). If even that's pushing it. God forbid the Braves don't have a 40 HR guy in their line up! How terrible that they only have a guy who will hit about 25 HR in their four hole! Oh No!
*Chipper Jones hit a bloop to LF off a low center ball out of the strike zone* Jon Miller:
And that's the reason Chipper hit .364 last year
Um, I'm pretty sure it's because of Chipper's top Line Drive Percentage and the fact that doesn't strike out is the reason he, or anyone else is able to hit for THAT high of an average, not because he hits bloop singles. If bloop singles was the reason people had a high AVG, then maybe I should pick up Michael Bourne in fantasy leagues...
*Chipper is at-bat* Jon Miller:
Chipper was second in OPS last year to Albert Pujols. In fact, OPS is a statistic that some people are starting to use.
Really? Just now people are starting to use? How far out of baseball are you that OPS is still a statistic that's rarely used!?
*Brain McCann is at bat batting fourth after Chipper* Steve Phillips:
You know very rarely do you see a catcher in the clean up spot and while McCann is a great power hitting catcher this is just a testament to this Braves line up that they really don't have that 40 HR guy
What!? Yes the Braves do not have that guy who can hit "40 Home Runs". Here's a list of teams that did not have a 40 HR hitter last year: Chicago, Tigers, Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Boston, New York, Tampa Bay, Oakland, LA, Toronto, Seattle, and Texas. And that's just the American League! Next year there is only gonna be probably about four teams that will have a 40+ HR guy: Milwaukee (Ryan Braun), Phillies (Ryan Howard), Cardinals (Albert Pujols), and Nationals (Adam Dunn). If even that's pushing it. God forbid the Braves don't have a 40 HR guy in their line up! How terrible that they only have a guy who will hit about 25 HR in their four hole! Oh No!
White Sox Opening Day Is Cancelled!
I was watching Baseball Tonight and they said because of snow in Chicago, Royals v White Sox is cancelled. I've been waiting for so long for Opening Day...
FFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKK!!!
FFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKK!!!
Jay Cutler Trade, Part II
OK, so now that I've had time digest this Cutler deal and talked to some people, I think I may have been too harsh in my last post. Essentially everyone that I've talked to LOVES this deal. However, I think there are obviously two sides to this deal. I think if you're absolutely in love with it, you're a bit too naive and optimistic. But if you absolutely hate it, then you're way too cynical and pessimistic. The thing I think to notice is that there is no clear cut winner and loser, at least not yet. The Bears are not automatically a Superbowl team, or even a playoff team with Cutler but they didn't necessarily destroy their future and organization either. So I'm here to post some pros and cons to this trade from the Bears perspective and let people make up their own mind. I still contend that it was a bad deal, but to say the Bears gained nothing is absurd.
PRO- This Deal Was Good For The Bears:
1) The organization, FINALLY got some stability in the QB position. There have only been two good QBs in the history of the Bears franchise: Sid Luckman and Jim Mcmahon. And let's be honest here, if McMahan was on any other team with any other franchise he wouldn't be considered good. Last year, Cutler threw for over 4,000 yards, had over 25 passing TDs, and was a Pro Bowler. The last QB Pro Bowler for the Bears was McMahon, the last guy to throw 25+ TDs was Eric Kramer in the mid-90s, and the Bears have never had a QB go over 4,000 yards. To say the Bears have had a bad history of QBs is to say the Cubs are just going through a little World Series dry spell.
2) Cutler is a guy you can build your franchise around. Cutler is only 26 years old and already has had success. The opportunity get a good player in one of the hardest positions not only in football but in all of sports is a rarity that when it comes along, you have to take it
3) The Bears suck at drafting anyway. The Bears do not know how to evaluate offensive players anyway and when Ron Turner is in charge of all your offense, it seems futile to try to build an offense in house. Yes Cutler cost two draft picks, but what would the Bears have done with those picks anyway? People have told me that draft picks don't matter anyway and you're still taking a risk on an unknown. In fact, Bright One texted me today "Fuck draft picks". If draft picks are really unimportant, then the Bears just got Cutler for nothing
CONS: This Deal Was Bad For The Bears
1) Cutler is not the savior. Let's be honest here, Cutler had success in Denver because of the offense around him. He had a great wide out in Brandon Marshall, his his offensive line in Denver was far superior to the one he'll have in Chicago, the only reason he passed over 4,000 yards was because he was 2nd in the NFL in passing attempts. The team around him in Chicago, at least in the short term, will show fans that a big name QB on his own can't win games. Current Bears WR and shit and so is the O-line. Joe Montana would have a hard time running this team, what makes Cutler so special?
2)If the Bears would just waste their draft picks anyway, then what's the point of building around Cutler? You see, the purpose of getting a young "franchise QB" is so that you can help your organization go forward. You still need to get WR and linemen and suck around your QB (The Bears already have a RB available). If this organization is too stupid to not take advantage of their draft picks, then how will they be smart enough to out talent around Cutler to make him a success? (My personal opinion is that everyone from Lovie Smith to the McCaskeys themselves don't know shit about how to successfully run an organization anyway...)
3) The Bears could have used those draft picks anyway to be good. The best way to win games and bee good is by having good D and O-lines. Jay Cutler doesn't help with that, draft picks (of free agents) do.
Do I think the Bears finally have a stable, good, Pro Bowl worthy QB that can play at least 32 games in row, something a Bears QB hasn't done in a long time? Yep. Do I think it's smart to draft Kyle Orton over Jay Cutler in next years fantasy football draft? Yep.
PRO- This Deal Was Good For The Bears:
1) The organization, FINALLY got some stability in the QB position. There have only been two good QBs in the history of the Bears franchise: Sid Luckman and Jim Mcmahon. And let's be honest here, if McMahan was on any other team with any other franchise he wouldn't be considered good. Last year, Cutler threw for over 4,000 yards, had over 25 passing TDs, and was a Pro Bowler. The last QB Pro Bowler for the Bears was McMahon, the last guy to throw 25+ TDs was Eric Kramer in the mid-90s, and the Bears have never had a QB go over 4,000 yards. To say the Bears have had a bad history of QBs is to say the Cubs are just going through a little World Series dry spell.
2) Cutler is a guy you can build your franchise around. Cutler is only 26 years old and already has had success. The opportunity get a good player in one of the hardest positions not only in football but in all of sports is a rarity that when it comes along, you have to take it
3) The Bears suck at drafting anyway. The Bears do not know how to evaluate offensive players anyway and when Ron Turner is in charge of all your offense, it seems futile to try to build an offense in house. Yes Cutler cost two draft picks, but what would the Bears have done with those picks anyway? People have told me that draft picks don't matter anyway and you're still taking a risk on an unknown. In fact, Bright One texted me today "Fuck draft picks". If draft picks are really unimportant, then the Bears just got Cutler for nothing
CONS: This Deal Was Bad For The Bears
1) Cutler is not the savior. Let's be honest here, Cutler had success in Denver because of the offense around him. He had a great wide out in Brandon Marshall, his his offensive line in Denver was far superior to the one he'll have in Chicago, the only reason he passed over 4,000 yards was because he was 2nd in the NFL in passing attempts. The team around him in Chicago, at least in the short term, will show fans that a big name QB on his own can't win games. Current Bears WR and shit and so is the O-line. Joe Montana would have a hard time running this team, what makes Cutler so special?
2)If the Bears would just waste their draft picks anyway, then what's the point of building around Cutler? You see, the purpose of getting a young "franchise QB" is so that you can help your organization go forward. You still need to get WR and linemen and suck around your QB (The Bears already have a RB available). If this organization is too stupid to not take advantage of their draft picks, then how will they be smart enough to out talent around Cutler to make him a success? (My personal opinion is that everyone from Lovie Smith to the McCaskeys themselves don't know shit about how to successfully run an organization anyway...)
3) The Bears could have used those draft picks anyway to be good. The best way to win games and bee good is by having good D and O-lines. Jay Cutler doesn't help with that, draft picks (of free agents) do.
Do I think the Bears finally have a stable, good, Pro Bowl worthy QB that can play at least 32 games in row, something a Bears QB hasn't done in a long time? Yep. Do I think it's smart to draft Kyle Orton over Jay Cutler in next years fantasy football draft? Yep.
No No No NO NOOOOOOOO! Call Trade Backs Angelo, Take Him Back!
Just a few moments ago, ESPN.com's John Clayton reported that our beloved Chicago Bears won the Jay Cutler raffle. While Cutler is a good young quarterback that you can build a franchise around, he is not worth two first round picks PLUS a player. The Bears reportedly gave up this year's first round pick, next year's first round pick, AND Kyle Orton. While I'm actually fine giving up Orton if we're getting Culter in return, but at what cost? Teams need, especially the borderline Bears, first round picks to build up their franchise. First round picks are extremely valuable because if a player is taken in the first round, they are essentially going to be a pro and a damn fine one (assuming they're healthy). While sure you can tell me Rex Grossman was a first round pick. And I'll retort that yes he wasn't worth a first pick for the Bears but 1) He got injured a lot early in his career which affected his play (especially his mobility) and 2) Even despite that, Rex Grossman's gonna be a #2 QB somewhere and he'll start soon enough. Anyway, I digress. The point is, teams NEED first round picks to help their team. And when you give up not just one, but two of your first round picks, you're guaranteeing a set back in your future growth. So if you give up TWO first round picks, you better get a guy who can change your franchise buy himself. Jay Cutler is not that guy.
There are only two QBs right now that are worth two first round draft picks: Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Jay Cutler is nowhere close to being in the same stratosphere as those two players. And let's now overlook the fact of what the Bears had to give up to get Cutler, but let's now look and how Cutler will be able to help the team. Now it's hard to judge Cutler on his entire career because essentially last year was his "developed" break out year but let's do that. Now last year his numbers were good being 5th in DVOA and 4th in DVAR. But Culter played in the 5th ranked offense and played in front of the best rushing offensive line and the 4th best passing offensive lines. Cutler also had a great WR last year in Brandon Marshall. How is Cutler going to be effective in front of the 11th ranked O-line with only four O-lineman on the team and throw to no hands Devin Hester? If you want to build up your team, you need to first develop your lines. Look how good Minnesota, Carolina, and New York (N) was last year? You know why they were good? because of the fucken lineman! Yes, you can build a team around Cutler but what good will be if he doesn't have a line to play in front of!
Not only that, I think Kyle Orton will be a fine QB with or without a line. Before Orton got hurt last year he was just as good of a QB as anyone. I'm not convinced Orton was fully healthy last year and thought he was rushed back too soon and thus he put up sub par numbers. Once healthy, I don't think you need Cutler over Orton and if the Bears were smart (which they were not), the Bears could have used those first round picks to build up their O-line to make Orton better.
I hate Jerry Angelo so much and hope he gets fired. I almost want this to blow up in Angelo's face, yet my love for the Bears winning supercedes my hatred of Jerry Angelo.
There are only two QBs right now that are worth two first round draft picks: Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Jay Cutler is nowhere close to being in the same stratosphere as those two players. And let's now overlook the fact of what the Bears had to give up to get Cutler, but let's now look and how Cutler will be able to help the team. Now it's hard to judge Cutler on his entire career because essentially last year was his "developed" break out year but let's do that. Now last year his numbers were good being 5th in DVOA and 4th in DVAR. But Culter played in the 5th ranked offense and played in front of the best rushing offensive line and the 4th best passing offensive lines. Cutler also had a great WR last year in Brandon Marshall. How is Cutler going to be effective in front of the 11th ranked O-line with only four O-lineman on the team and throw to no hands Devin Hester? If you want to build up your team, you need to first develop your lines. Look how good Minnesota, Carolina, and New York (N) was last year? You know why they were good? because of the fucken lineman! Yes, you can build a team around Cutler but what good will be if he doesn't have a line to play in front of!
Not only that, I think Kyle Orton will be a fine QB with or without a line. Before Orton got hurt last year he was just as good of a QB as anyone. I'm not convinced Orton was fully healthy last year and thought he was rushed back too soon and thus he put up sub par numbers. Once healthy, I don't think you need Cutler over Orton and if the Bears were smart (which they were not), the Bears could have used those first round picks to build up their O-line to make Orton better.
I hate Jerry Angelo so much and hope he gets fired. I almost want this to blow up in Angelo's face, yet my love for the Bears winning supercedes my hatred of Jerry Angelo.
Coaches sure do love lying
I was quite surprised to hear that the storied college basketball powerhouse that is the Arizona Wildcats decided to hand over the keys to the Mercedes to non other than Tim Floyd. Maybe i'm still bitter with him after he took over for Phil Jackson in 1999 and proceeded to run the Bulls into the ground(not that god could have done better), but I expected a better guy to follow the legend that is Lute Olson. Arizona is my favorite college basketball team, as i was devastated when the refs gave away the elite 8 game to the Illini in 2005. I have to believe my admiration for the team was a result of the elegance and prestige that was associated with Luke Olson. If he had coached Duke all these years, as opposed to Arizona, he would be on the Mt. Rushmore of coaches in all sports. I think he could have continued coaching if not for family issues, so the school was forced to find a replacement.
I was hoping for a coach with a similar elegance and grace that Olson brought to the court every year, someone like a Jay Wright or Jaime Dixon. Instead, they went with Tim Floyd. I'll admit that Floyd has been a good coach since his days in Iowa State, but he doesnt seem to me like the right person to follow Olson, just like he wasnt the right person to follow Phil Jackson. His recruiting tactics have been brought into question, and he also once said "This is my last job, at SC" when he was offered the LSU head coaching job several years back. Coaches sure love to lie
Eastbound And Down
It took me awhile to hunt down all six episodes of HBO's Eastbound And Down, but here you go:
Episode One
Episode Two
Episode Three
Episode Four
Episode Five
Episode Six
Enjoy!
(Needless to say, this show is NSFW)
Episode One
Episode Two
Episode Three
Episode Four
Episode Five
Episode Six
Enjoy!
(Needless to say, this show is NSFW)
A “30 Teams In 30 Days” Substitute
I was watching some Baseball Tonight recently and to fill time yet be informative, they had Buster Olney and company talk about the best and up and coming from each division. Since our 30 teams in 30 Days didn’t really pan out, I thought this might be a nice substitute. Now frankly, I absolutely know there is going to be some argument, especially considering most of the “30 Teams In 30 Days” argument came from information about specific players and not about the teams as a whole (*cough cough* MVP Eckstein). I am way too lazy to put exact reasoning behind each of these players but I trust you there is. I used information from PECOTA and Fangraphs.com to come up with the information so there is clearly expert rationale behind my picks. But by no means is this list to be the end all be all. There is clearly reasons for other players to be on this list and clearly fine stats to prove why other players to be swapped. With this, I in fact expect and encourage debate and this is meant to be a fun little baseball tidbit and not so much a forum for attacking and pissing each other off. So with out further ado, my list…
AL Central:
-Cy Young: Fransisco Liriano (SP, MIN)
-MVP: Grady Sizemore (CF, CLE)
-Rolaids Reliever: Joe Nathan (CL, MIN)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Denard Span (OF, MIN)
-Breakout Star (Pitcher): Kevin Slowey (SP, MIN)
-Gold Glover: Carlos Gomez (OF, MIN)/ Brian Anderson (CF, CWS)
-X Factor: Cleveland rotation. I think the Twins will take this division because they’re rotation in awesome, they have the defense to back it up, and while their offense isn’t prolific, no start will really end up like 2007 Matt Cain (awesome ERA, losing record. However, if the Indians rotation end up vastly exceeding expectations, then the can easily win this division because they have an awesome bullpen and offense.
AL East:
-Cy Young: Josh Beckett (SP, BOS)
-MVP: David Ortiz (DH, BOS)
-Rolaids Reliever: Jonathan Papelbon (CL, BOS)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Matt Wieters (C, BAL)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): David Price (P, TAM)
-Gold Glover: Carl Crawford (OF, TAM)
-X Factor: Health of Yankees rotation. That rotation truly is awesome but the Yankees have absolutely no depth. If one pitcher gets injured, especially for a significant amount of time, this team is screwed. But if they stay relatively healthy all season long, they can make the playoffs
AL West:
-Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (SP, SEA)
-MVP: Ian Kinsler (2B, TEX)
-Rolaids Reliever: Brad Ziegler (CL, OAK)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Nelson Cruz (OF, TEX)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Brandon Morrow (P/CL, SEA)
-Gold Glover: Orlando Cabrera (SS, OAK)
-X Factor: Effectiveness of A’s rotation. The division really looks like its all for the Angels taking just because everyone else looks so weak this year. However, if the A’s have another great year and the Angels falter (like they’re starting too with all the rotation injuries), then the A’s can win this division. (Even though Eckstein thinks the A’s already will win it).
NL Central:
-Cy Young: Rich Harden (SP, CHC). He needs to stay healthy though like he did last year.
-MVP: Albert Pujols (1B, STL)
-Rolaids Reliever: Carlos Marmol (RP, CHC)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Joey Votto (1B, CIN)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Yovani Gallardo (SP, MIL)
-Gold Glover: Mike Cameron (OF, MIN)
-X Factor: Dusty Baker and the Reds rotation. If the Cubs DON’T win this division then I will laugh hysterically for like about a week. The only team that even would have a miniscule chance would be the Reds, and on paper, the Reds have a decent rotation. And if by some miracle Dusty Baker doesn’t destroy these pitchers, then the Reds will have a chance to compete.
NL West:
-Cy Young: Dan Haren (SP, ARI)
-MVP: Manny Rameriz (OF, LAD)
-Rolaids Reliever: Jonathan Broxton (CL, LAD)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Chris Iannetta (C, COL)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Jonathan Sanchez (SP, SFG)
-Gold Glover: Randy Winn (OF, SFG)
-X Factor: Giants Bullpen. I view this team like the Twins, except slightly shittier. They have a good, deep starting rotation, defense, and just enough offense. If the Giants end up having a bullpen this year, then this team can win the division.
NL East:
-Cy Young: Javier Vazquez (SP, ATL)
-MVP: Hanley Rameriz (SS, FLA)
-Rolaids Reliever: Brad Lidge (CL, PHI)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Elijah Dukes (OF, WAS)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Josh Johnson (SP, FLA)
-Gold Glover: Jimmy Rollins (SS, PHI)
-X Factor: Mets rotation. The Braves have a damn good rotation and great defense which will carry them far. The Phillies have an above average, deep rotation, a good bullpen (one of the few teams in recent history to have a consistent bullpen year to year) and a great offense. The Mets have a prolific offense and a much improved bullpen (were the relievers overpaid, absolutely, did the Mets NEED to do it, of course). So if the Mets want to stay in contention this year, that rotation needs to be just as strong.
Something I noticed, the NL East is the only division to have all five teams represented. The AL Central is the most lopsided. But then again, this is just my opinion.
Just a quick note: being avid and extremely thorough fantasy baseball fans and fantasy baseball fans, you might view my break out stars as like “what the fuck?” But essentially all of those players are people the average baseball fan has never heard of. They are people 1) in/were in the minor leagues expected to be great (i.e. Wieters, Cruz), 2) young guys who poised to have a breakout awesome year (i.e. Slowey, Sanchez), or 3) guys who have been in the leagues a few years and are essentially “developed” and will show the world why the should have been drafted higher in fantasy baseball drafts (i.e. Iannetta, Votto). Essentially, “breakout” means you haven’t really “produced” in the big leagues for any reason and will do so in 2009.
AL Central:
-Cy Young: Fransisco Liriano (SP, MIN)
-MVP: Grady Sizemore (CF, CLE)
-Rolaids Reliever: Joe Nathan (CL, MIN)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Denard Span (OF, MIN)
-Breakout Star (Pitcher): Kevin Slowey (SP, MIN)
-Gold Glover: Carlos Gomez (OF, MIN)/ Brian Anderson (CF, CWS)
-X Factor: Cleveland rotation. I think the Twins will take this division because they’re rotation in awesome, they have the defense to back it up, and while their offense isn’t prolific, no start will really end up like 2007 Matt Cain (awesome ERA, losing record. However, if the Indians rotation end up vastly exceeding expectations, then the can easily win this division because they have an awesome bullpen and offense.
AL East:
-Cy Young: Josh Beckett (SP, BOS)
-MVP: David Ortiz (DH, BOS)
-Rolaids Reliever: Jonathan Papelbon (CL, BOS)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Matt Wieters (C, BAL)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): David Price (P, TAM)
-Gold Glover: Carl Crawford (OF, TAM)
-X Factor: Health of Yankees rotation. That rotation truly is awesome but the Yankees have absolutely no depth. If one pitcher gets injured, especially for a significant amount of time, this team is screwed. But if they stay relatively healthy all season long, they can make the playoffs
AL West:
-Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (SP, SEA)
-MVP: Ian Kinsler (2B, TEX)
-Rolaids Reliever: Brad Ziegler (CL, OAK)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Nelson Cruz (OF, TEX)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Brandon Morrow (P/CL, SEA)
-Gold Glover: Orlando Cabrera (SS, OAK)
-X Factor: Effectiveness of A’s rotation. The division really looks like its all for the Angels taking just because everyone else looks so weak this year. However, if the A’s have another great year and the Angels falter (like they’re starting too with all the rotation injuries), then the A’s can win this division. (Even though Eckstein thinks the A’s already will win it).
NL Central:
-Cy Young: Rich Harden (SP, CHC). He needs to stay healthy though like he did last year.
-MVP: Albert Pujols (1B, STL)
-Rolaids Reliever: Carlos Marmol (RP, CHC)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Joey Votto (1B, CIN)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Yovani Gallardo (SP, MIL)
-Gold Glover: Mike Cameron (OF, MIN)
-X Factor: Dusty Baker and the Reds rotation. If the Cubs DON’T win this division then I will laugh hysterically for like about a week. The only team that even would have a miniscule chance would be the Reds, and on paper, the Reds have a decent rotation. And if by some miracle Dusty Baker doesn’t destroy these pitchers, then the Reds will have a chance to compete.
NL West:
-Cy Young: Dan Haren (SP, ARI)
-MVP: Manny Rameriz (OF, LAD)
-Rolaids Reliever: Jonathan Broxton (CL, LAD)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Chris Iannetta (C, COL)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Jonathan Sanchez (SP, SFG)
-Gold Glover: Randy Winn (OF, SFG)
-X Factor: Giants Bullpen. I view this team like the Twins, except slightly shittier. They have a good, deep starting rotation, defense, and just enough offense. If the Giants end up having a bullpen this year, then this team can win the division.
NL East:
-Cy Young: Javier Vazquez (SP, ATL)
-MVP: Hanley Rameriz (SS, FLA)
-Rolaids Reliever: Brad Lidge (CL, PHI)
-Breakout Star (Offense): Elijah Dukes (OF, WAS)
-Breakout Star (Pitching): Josh Johnson (SP, FLA)
-Gold Glover: Jimmy Rollins (SS, PHI)
-X Factor: Mets rotation. The Braves have a damn good rotation and great defense which will carry them far. The Phillies have an above average, deep rotation, a good bullpen (one of the few teams in recent history to have a consistent bullpen year to year) and a great offense. The Mets have a prolific offense and a much improved bullpen (were the relievers overpaid, absolutely, did the Mets NEED to do it, of course). So if the Mets want to stay in contention this year, that rotation needs to be just as strong.
Something I noticed, the NL East is the only division to have all five teams represented. The AL Central is the most lopsided. But then again, this is just my opinion.
Just a quick note: being avid and extremely thorough fantasy baseball fans and fantasy baseball fans, you might view my break out stars as like “what the fuck?” But essentially all of those players are people the average baseball fan has never heard of. They are people 1) in/were in the minor leagues expected to be great (i.e. Wieters, Cruz), 2) young guys who poised to have a breakout awesome year (i.e. Slowey, Sanchez), or 3) guys who have been in the leagues a few years and are essentially “developed” and will show the world why the should have been drafted higher in fantasy baseball drafts (i.e. Iannetta, Votto). Essentially, “breakout” means you haven’t really “produced” in the big leagues for any reason and will do so in 2009.
