I'm watching Wednesday Night Baseball on ESPN and Joe Morgan just claimed that David Eckstein is one of "the few players you really want hitting in the number two spot."
David Eckstein owns a career wOBA of .321, thanks to his .362 career slugging percentage. There are many better #2 options out there, many of whom (Lofton, Thomas, Edmonds, Durham, etc.) remain unemployed. Did I mention Ray Durham? He plays second base well and hits better than Eckstein (Durham has a .346 career wOBA). Durham also walked 4% more than Eckstein last season/every season.
Where is FireJoeMorgan when you need them?
Where Would You Draft A RB?
With the NFL draft a little over a week away, NFL Live's Tim Hasselbeck says he would never draft a RB in the first round. This reminded me of a conversation The Bright One and I had a while back during the 2008 football season- one in which a good friend of his shared the same exact sentiment. Obviously if you can find a player like Walter Peyton or even Adrian Peterson, you snatch him up as quickly as possible. But if you're a RB behind an AP-like player in the draft, there's not a whole lot of difference between the #2 RB and say the #10 RB. Mainly because RB rely so heavily on their offense line. So I wanted to look at two questions in this post: 1) Should a team ever draft a RB before the 2nd round? and 2) How much of a RBs stats are based off the offensive line and how much is based of a RB's talent?
I'd like to start with the second question first: is stats due to the offensive line or the RB? Last year, according to footballoutsiders.com, the top five rushing O-lines were: Denver, New England, New York Giants, New York Jets, and Washington Redskins. And according to RB stats, the top five RBs were: DeAngelo Williams, Brandon Jacobs, Clinton Portis, Derrick Ward, and Thomas Jones. There's actually not a whole lot of discrepancy here. Both Ward and Jacobs are Giants RB. It's no surprise that the Giants who have 3rd best rushing line was able to produce two players in the top five. Thomas Jones made his first pro bowl last year but he also had the 4th best rushing line in front of him. Portis was the #2 overall back in front of the 5th best rushing line. And as for the best RB last year and who I called the MVP DeAngelo Williams, his rushing O-line was 7th.
Well, you might ask, "how come there is no Patriot or Broncos RB on that list?" Well that's easy, both teams used 4 or more RBs so obviously running stats for one individual player is going to be low. Denver went through at least 8 RBs last year, mainly due to injury, and the Pats just rotated in guys like Sammy Morris (5th in DVOA), Kevin Faulk, LaMont Jordan, and Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis (the latter three had less than 100 carries each so they do not qualify for stats like the other top RBs mentioned do. However, for guys who had less than 100 carries: Faulk is #1, Jordan is #5, and Ellis is #17. And for Denver, because they also didn't really have guys who had significant carries: Peyton Hillis was #3, Michael Pittman was #7 and Tatum Bell was #11)
But let's see if this type of thing also hold true year after year. In 2007 the top RBs were (and their subsequent teams rushing O-line ranking): Brian Westbrook (PHI 4th), LT (SD 24th), Marion Barber (DAL 14th), AP (MIN 15th), Jospeh Addai (IND 5th). In 2006: LT (SD 1st), Brian Westbrook (PHI 3rd), Tiki Barber (NYG 4th), Joseph Addai (IND 5th), Larry Johnson (KC, 17th). In 2005: Larry Johnson (KC 3rd), Sean Alexander (SEA 7th), Edge (IND 1st), Tiki Barber (NYG 10th), Rudi Johnson (CIN 4th). In 2004: Curtis Martin (NYJ 2nd), Corey Dillon (NE 5th), Edge (IND 1st), Priest Holmes (KC 3rd), Sean Alexander (SEA 9th).
As you can see, if a RB is top five the league, it tends to be that his rushing offense line tends to also be top five, if not top 10. Especially if the RB is on teams like the Colts or the Jets, the RB seem to do well because of the offensive line. The one outlier seems to be in 2007. LT, Barber, and AP has exceptional years yet their rushing lines were 14th or lower. But I think these are clearly examples of sometimes a RB is good no matter the O-line. LT is one of the games great players (although his career setting year in '06 is obviously more the O-line than him, but still, I mean the guys just amazing); as mentioned at the top of the article, Peterson could end his career, assuming health, as being on Walter Peyton's level; and Marion Barber's running style will help him get yards no matter the O-line (however this does cause him to be more of an injury risk). But overall, RBs that have great years is mainly due to the line and not necessarily due to the RB's talent.
But this is not a perfect correlation either. Just because a RB is the best does not necessarily mean his rushing offensive line is the best and just because a player plays for the best rushing offensive line, does not mean he will be the best RB. This means that a RBs talent does play a factor into his own stats, but in reality that factor is a lot smaller than the vast majority of people think.
So now onto the second question, should a team ever draft a RB in the 2nd round or lower? Well I think to help answer this question, we can look at fantasy football. I'm going to list the top RBs according to ESPN's fantasy football (yes I realize it's fantasy but if a RB is good in fantasy play, then they actually will be very good in reality play. Fantasy football has a better correlation than baseball does) and then see what round that player was drafted in:
1) Adrian Peterson- 1st
2) Matt Forte- 2nd
3) Michael Turner- 5th
4) Maurice Jones-Drew- 2nd
5) DeAngelo Williams- 1st
6) Chris Johnson- 2nd
7) Steven Jackson- 1st
8) Brian Westbrook- 3rd
9) Frank Gore- 3rd
10) Marion Barber- 4th
11) Steve Slaton- 2nd
12) Clinton Portis- 2nd
13) LaDainain (LT) Tomlinson- 1st
14) Brandon Jacobs- 4th
15) Joseph Addai- 1st
16) Kevin Smith- 3rd
17) Ronnie Brown- 1st
18) Marshawn Lynch- 1st
19) Derrick Ward- 7th
20) Thomas Jones- 7th
Out of the top 20, 7 were drafted in the first round, 5 in the second, 3 in the third, and 5 in rounds 4-7. This may seem like it actually is worth it to take a RB in the first round but 65% of the top 20 were NOT first round picks. AP and LT are players like the ones I mentioned earlier, backs that will be amazing no matter the O-line. The one first rounder that sticks out to me is Joseph Addai. The Colts have had one of the best rushing offensive lines throughout the past five+ years, that they probably could have taken a RB in the later rounds and still have had the production that Addai has had. Forte, K. Smith, Slaton, Jones-Drew and C. Johnson are the younger ones on this list, some of the best on this list, and all were taken in the 2nd or 3rd round. But the one thing on this list that sticks out to me, is that there is not a clump or group of the same round draftees in one place. The #3 RB is a fifth rounder and the #18 RB is a first rounder.
So, now let's go back to the original question: should a team ever draft a RB is the first round? Well, sometimes, but mainly no. It's not necessarily a waste to do so but you can always get value in a later round. But I think something else to consider is health. Yes, you clearly need a good Line, but if you have a player that has shown to get constantly injured or deals with injuries badly (like many "experts" are telling me about Ohio State RB Chris "Beanie" Wells), its probably not the best idea to draft that player in a higher round (you hear that New Orleans?). So if you think there's a handful of backs that are just as good as some projected first rounders, but are injury risks, then it's probably a good thing to take a RB is the first round. And sometimes when you're not good/ too stupid to realize your teams O-line sucks or is just mediocre (Buffalo Bills), it may be a good idea to take a RB in the first round (Marshawn Lynch). But because the line sucks the RB may not achieve top-tier like he could, but he's still worth a first round pick.
But overall, the line still is more important than the RB itself. So if I were a GM, I would concentrate more on the line than the RB. That way, in a future draft, I can draft a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round, not waste a first round pick, and still have a lot of production out of the RB position.
I'd like to start with the second question first: is stats due to the offensive line or the RB? Last year, according to footballoutsiders.com, the top five rushing O-lines were: Denver, New England, New York Giants, New York Jets, and Washington Redskins. And according to RB stats, the top five RBs were: DeAngelo Williams, Brandon Jacobs, Clinton Portis, Derrick Ward, and Thomas Jones. There's actually not a whole lot of discrepancy here. Both Ward and Jacobs are Giants RB. It's no surprise that the Giants who have 3rd best rushing line was able to produce two players in the top five. Thomas Jones made his first pro bowl last year but he also had the 4th best rushing line in front of him. Portis was the #2 overall back in front of the 5th best rushing line. And as for the best RB last year and who I called the MVP DeAngelo Williams, his rushing O-line was 7th.
Well, you might ask, "how come there is no Patriot or Broncos RB on that list?" Well that's easy, both teams used 4 or more RBs so obviously running stats for one individual player is going to be low. Denver went through at least 8 RBs last year, mainly due to injury, and the Pats just rotated in guys like Sammy Morris (5th in DVOA), Kevin Faulk, LaMont Jordan, and Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis (the latter three had less than 100 carries each so they do not qualify for stats like the other top RBs mentioned do. However, for guys who had less than 100 carries: Faulk is #1, Jordan is #5, and Ellis is #17. And for Denver, because they also didn't really have guys who had significant carries: Peyton Hillis was #3, Michael Pittman was #7 and Tatum Bell was #11)
But let's see if this type of thing also hold true year after year. In 2007 the top RBs were (and their subsequent teams rushing O-line ranking): Brian Westbrook (PHI 4th), LT (SD 24th), Marion Barber (DAL 14th), AP (MIN 15th), Jospeh Addai (IND 5th). In 2006: LT (SD 1st), Brian Westbrook (PHI 3rd), Tiki Barber (NYG 4th), Joseph Addai (IND 5th), Larry Johnson (KC, 17th). In 2005: Larry Johnson (KC 3rd), Sean Alexander (SEA 7th), Edge (IND 1st), Tiki Barber (NYG 10th), Rudi Johnson (CIN 4th). In 2004: Curtis Martin (NYJ 2nd), Corey Dillon (NE 5th), Edge (IND 1st), Priest Holmes (KC 3rd), Sean Alexander (SEA 9th).
As you can see, if a RB is top five the league, it tends to be that his rushing offense line tends to also be top five, if not top 10. Especially if the RB is on teams like the Colts or the Jets, the RB seem to do well because of the offensive line. The one outlier seems to be in 2007. LT, Barber, and AP has exceptional years yet their rushing lines were 14th or lower. But I think these are clearly examples of sometimes a RB is good no matter the O-line. LT is one of the games great players (although his career setting year in '06 is obviously more the O-line than him, but still, I mean the guys just amazing); as mentioned at the top of the article, Peterson could end his career, assuming health, as being on Walter Peyton's level; and Marion Barber's running style will help him get yards no matter the O-line (however this does cause him to be more of an injury risk). But overall, RBs that have great years is mainly due to the line and not necessarily due to the RB's talent.
But this is not a perfect correlation either. Just because a RB is the best does not necessarily mean his rushing offensive line is the best and just because a player plays for the best rushing offensive line, does not mean he will be the best RB. This means that a RBs talent does play a factor into his own stats, but in reality that factor is a lot smaller than the vast majority of people think.
So now onto the second question, should a team ever draft a RB in the 2nd round or lower? Well I think to help answer this question, we can look at fantasy football. I'm going to list the top RBs according to ESPN's fantasy football (yes I realize it's fantasy but if a RB is good in fantasy play, then they actually will be very good in reality play. Fantasy football has a better correlation than baseball does) and then see what round that player was drafted in:
1) Adrian Peterson- 1st
2) Matt Forte- 2nd
3) Michael Turner- 5th
4) Maurice Jones-Drew- 2nd
5) DeAngelo Williams- 1st
6) Chris Johnson- 2nd
7) Steven Jackson- 1st
8) Brian Westbrook- 3rd
9) Frank Gore- 3rd
10) Marion Barber- 4th
11) Steve Slaton- 2nd
12) Clinton Portis- 2nd
13) LaDainain (LT) Tomlinson- 1st
14) Brandon Jacobs- 4th
15) Joseph Addai- 1st
16) Kevin Smith- 3rd
17) Ronnie Brown- 1st
18) Marshawn Lynch- 1st
19) Derrick Ward- 7th
20) Thomas Jones- 7th
Out of the top 20, 7 were drafted in the first round, 5 in the second, 3 in the third, and 5 in rounds 4-7. This may seem like it actually is worth it to take a RB in the first round but 65% of the top 20 were NOT first round picks. AP and LT are players like the ones I mentioned earlier, backs that will be amazing no matter the O-line. The one first rounder that sticks out to me is Joseph Addai. The Colts have had one of the best rushing offensive lines throughout the past five+ years, that they probably could have taken a RB in the later rounds and still have had the production that Addai has had. Forte, K. Smith, Slaton, Jones-Drew and C. Johnson are the younger ones on this list, some of the best on this list, and all were taken in the 2nd or 3rd round. But the one thing on this list that sticks out to me, is that there is not a clump or group of the same round draftees in one place. The #3 RB is a fifth rounder and the #18 RB is a first rounder.
So, now let's go back to the original question: should a team ever draft a RB is the first round? Well, sometimes, but mainly no. It's not necessarily a waste to do so but you can always get value in a later round. But I think something else to consider is health. Yes, you clearly need a good Line, but if you have a player that has shown to get constantly injured or deals with injuries badly (like many "experts" are telling me about Ohio State RB Chris "Beanie" Wells), its probably not the best idea to draft that player in a higher round (you hear that New Orleans?). So if you think there's a handful of backs that are just as good as some projected first rounders, but are injury risks, then it's probably a good thing to take a RB is the first round. And sometimes when you're not good/ too stupid to realize your teams O-line sucks or is just mediocre (Buffalo Bills), it may be a good idea to take a RB in the first round (Marshawn Lynch). But because the line sucks the RB may not achieve top-tier like he could, but he's still worth a first round pick.
But overall, the line still is more important than the RB itself. So if I were a GM, I would concentrate more on the line than the RB. That way, in a future draft, I can draft a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round, not waste a first round pick, and still have a lot of production out of the RB position.
It's Scotty Pods, Mercy!
News came across the wire overnight that the White Sox signed Scott Podsednik to a minor league deal. Scotty Pods is becoming the new Roberto Alomar. The affection of Kenny Williams eye, such that he will always have a job, regardless how low the OPB or little outfield range.
This brings up three points:
1) If Williams is looking for an extra centerfielder, with the (un)fortunate injury to Dewayne Wise, why not sign Kenny Lofton instead? I know that he is more expencive, but he is also much better. At the age of 40, he stole bases at a 77% clip.
2) Why do the White Sox hate Brian Anderson? He has the speed and he has gold glove potential, the only thing holding him back is a propencity to strike out. But Joe Crede used to strike out and Alexei ramirez used to strike out and both those players got all the playing time in the world to flourish. The Sox must know something I do not.
3) The Sox called up Jerry Owens to be the backup centerfielder, but knowing the luck of Anderson, Owens will most likely receive the majority of the playing time. If that happens, then there's no order to the universe and Anderson should just go find himself a playmate a drift into the horizon.
Did i mention Podsednik is married to a playmate?
This brings up three points:
1) If Williams is looking for an extra centerfielder, with the (un)fortunate injury to Dewayne Wise, why not sign Kenny Lofton instead? I know that he is more expencive, but he is also much better. At the age of 40, he stole bases at a 77% clip.
2) Why do the White Sox hate Brian Anderson? He has the speed and he has gold glove potential, the only thing holding him back is a propencity to strike out. But Joe Crede used to strike out and Alexei ramirez used to strike out and both those players got all the playing time in the world to flourish. The Sox must know something I do not.
3) The Sox called up Jerry Owens to be the backup centerfielder, but knowing the luck of Anderson, Owens will most likely receive the majority of the playing time. If that happens, then there's no order to the universe and Anderson should just go find himself a playmate a drift into the horizon.
Did i mention Podsednik is married to a playmate?
Box Score Tonight: April 14
The theme will continue to be "break up the padres" up until they finally lose. Seeing as how they did not play today, we will have a substitute theme today in the form of "extra innings".
- Ken Griffey made his illustrious return to the Emerald city 10 years after demanding a trade to Cincinatti, and singled in his first at-bat. He'll be lucky to break the mendoza line if he gets over 400Ab. Some guy named Shane Loux pitched 5 solid inning for the Halos. Looking up his minor league numbers, the guy didnt pitch, at all, from 2003 to 2008. Last year he managed 4K in 16IP. Dude must have had a freakish spring to get a major league start. Get Kevin Costner on the phone, i smell a cheezy sports flick
- Javy Vazquez strikes out 12 with one walk in 6IP and gets the loss. Of course he does. Meanwhile the Marlins rotation seems only second best to the Cardinals as Volstad dominates again.
- AJ Burnett takes a no-hitter into the 7th, a la Ted Lilly, as the Yanks get a win over the Rays behind a homer and double from the clean up hitter, Dirty 30.
- The Brew Crew is 2-6. That will happen when Jeff Suppan is your opening day pitcher. Braun has yet to go deep. And mark my words, Carlos Villanueva will get DFA SOON!
- The O's can simply hit the ball. One of the most balanced lineups in the game that rarely go into slumps. And look at all the white guys. Roberts, Markakis, Huff, Wiggington, Scott, Zaun. Represent!
- The Tribe is 1-7. Can the Cubs get Wood and Derosa back please? Break up the Indians, no sarcasm involved here. The Royals are 5-3 despite hitting .198 as a team
- Romero and Perkins, two lefties, both go 8IP 2ER despite not being able to strike people out. Impressive. The cluttchiest player in baseball, Joe Crede comes up with the game winning hit.
- Chris Carpenter leaves the game after 3IP due to a rib cage strain, while batting. Boy is he unlucky. Both bullpens suck, but the D-backs come out on top.
- Jack Cust, hit, RBI, run, walk, strikeout. Dude is the Robocop of baseball.
Comparing Rose to LeBron Rookie Years
Us Chicago Bulls fans have seen the immense potential of Derrick Rose lead the Bulls from a lackluster start all the way to the 6th spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Although smaller in size than LeBron James, Rose's athleticism and basketball IQ all point to the fact that he will be a superstar for many years to come. But how does Rose's rookie campaign compare to LeBron, as well as other young successful point guards Chris Paul and Deron Williams?
Truth be told, Rose's season compares favorably with each of the NBA superstars listed above. The most impressive part of Rose's game is his shooting percentage. While most rookies shoot in the low 40% range, Rose has a top shooting percentage for guards at 47.5%. Not to say that Rose is a pure shooter, which he definitely is not, but he has the unique ability to finish in the lane over or through centers. His ability to constantly penetrate the defense is possible the most important quality of any point guard, as it breaks down the defense and allows the player to finish or find the open man.
The assist numbers are very comparable among these particular players, except Chris Paul showed a superior ability to distribute with an 8 assist avegare, while the other players sit in the 6 assist range. Rose's greatest weakness was his ability to distribute the ball to the appropriate player, however, the Bulls recent stretch of 15 home wins in 16 games has been partially a product of Rose's ability to run the fast break and pitch the ball out to shooter like Gordon, Salmons, and Hinrich. Still he has yet to record a double digit assist game this season, but i expect his assist totals to jump into the 8 range much like Paul, Willians, and James had.
A second major complaint I have of Rose this season is his low free throw attempt numbers. He is only averaging 3.0 attempts per game. As i had pointed out in a previous post, nearly every NBA superstar is in the top 30 of free throw attempts per game. If he is able to improve in this essential category, Rose's point per game average can sky rocket from 17 to 22 points per game. This would be concurrent with James(+6.3) Paul(+1.2) Willaims(+5.4).
The biggest jump in production for most NBA players comes in the second year in the league, just look at players like Wade, Roy, and Bosh etc...if you need more verification. I'll go as far as predict that next year Rose will be the first Bulls all-star since the Michael Jordan era. I can't say if the supporting cast will be talented enough for the Bulls to compete for a title, but look out 2010.
Did I mention he's still 20?
Truth be told, Rose's season compares favorably with each of the NBA superstars listed above. The most impressive part of Rose's game is his shooting percentage. While most rookies shoot in the low 40% range, Rose has a top shooting percentage for guards at 47.5%. Not to say that Rose is a pure shooter, which he definitely is not, but he has the unique ability to finish in the lane over or through centers. His ability to constantly penetrate the defense is possible the most important quality of any point guard, as it breaks down the defense and allows the player to finish or find the open man.
The assist numbers are very comparable among these particular players, except Chris Paul showed a superior ability to distribute with an 8 assist avegare, while the other players sit in the 6 assist range. Rose's greatest weakness was his ability to distribute the ball to the appropriate player, however, the Bulls recent stretch of 15 home wins in 16 games has been partially a product of Rose's ability to run the fast break and pitch the ball out to shooter like Gordon, Salmons, and Hinrich. Still he has yet to record a double digit assist game this season, but i expect his assist totals to jump into the 8 range much like Paul, Willians, and James had.
A second major complaint I have of Rose this season is his low free throw attempt numbers. He is only averaging 3.0 attempts per game. As i had pointed out in a previous post, nearly every NBA superstar is in the top 30 of free throw attempts per game. If he is able to improve in this essential category, Rose's point per game average can sky rocket from 17 to 22 points per game. This would be concurrent with James(+6.3) Paul(+1.2) Willaims(+5.4).
The biggest jump in production for most NBA players comes in the second year in the league, just look at players like Wade, Roy, and Bosh etc...if you need more verification. I'll go as far as predict that next year Rose will be the first Bulls all-star since the Michael Jordan era. I can't say if the supporting cast will be talented enough for the Bulls to compete for a title, but look out 2010.
Did I mention he's still 20?
Is Javier Vazquez Hall Of Fame Material?
It's an interesting question to ask. On the surface, Javier Vazquez seems like the most unclutch pitcher in the world. His ERA has been below 4.40 only once in the past five seasons and he is notorious for pitching poorly when the game matters most. If Win-Loss records meant anything (which they do not), his five year 63-61 mark would be nothing to talk about.
But that's where all my "criticism" of Javi ends. If you look beneath the situational numbers, you find one of baseball's premier pitchers. Over the past five seasons (1041.1 IP), Javier Vazquez has struck out 939 batters (8.12 K/9) and walked a mere 273 (2.39 BB/9). Even with his high 1.25 HR/9 rate over that five year period, Vasquez still managed to post a FIP just below 4 (3.99), despite playing 4 of those 5 seasons at baseball's most home run friendly parks. If you remove Vasquez's disastrous 2004 campaign from this analysis and we look at the four year period from 2005-2008, we find even more to love about Ozzie's whipping boy.
At HR friendly US Cellular and Chase Field between 2004 and 2008, Javier Vazquez struck out 789, walked 213 and only gave up 112 long balls in 843.1 IP. That's good for a 8.42 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, and remarkable (given the circumstance that Javi is a flyball pitcher at two home run inflating parks) 1.19 HR/9 -- significant improvements on his already great peripherals from the five year analysis. Javi's FIP over this period is a very respectable 3.81.
So if Javi is so great, why were his numbers so terrible over this period of time? The answers are simple.
Vazquez's stint on the Yankees in 2004 was just a down year. Vazquez gave a then career high amount of bombs (33) in a career low amount of innings (198). Vazquez, who had just moved from the NL to the AL that season had to make adjustments and in doing so, his K/9 fell from 9.40 per nine in 2003 to a career low 6.82 per nine in 2004. His walk rate, though not terrible, spiked to a career high 2.73 per nine. Following his down year on the Yankees, Vazquez adjusted and his peripherals returned to normal. His K/9 rose and BB/9 fell to match his career rates and would remain pretty consistent from 2005-2008. However, as Vazquez spent a lot of time in both Chase Field and US Cellular Field, he was still susceptible to the long ball. In 2005, Javier Vazquez topped his home run mark from 2004 with 35 bombs allowed, but did so in 18 extra innings of work. When Vazquez was traded from the Diamondbacks to the White Sox, he not only made the transition from the NL to the AL again (this time, Javi would make the necessary adjustments and his peripherals would remain constant), he moved to one of the worst defensive teams in all of baseball. With the notable exception of Joe Crede, who saw limited playing time due to back injury complications from 2006-2008, and Orlando Cabrera, who only played for the team for one season, the entire White Sox infield and outfield have not only been one of the most below average defensive teams in baseball, but also one of the least efficient at converting balls-in-play into outs. In 2007 and 2008, the White Sox respectively ranked 23rd and 20th in defensive efficiency. If not for Orlando Cabrera last season, the White Sox would have ranked even lower in 2008. Furthermore, in 2006 and 2008, Javier Vazquez's BABIPs were .321 and .328, both career high marks.
Some combination of bad luck, poor defense and home run inflating parks have resulted in a stigma being placed upon Javier Vazquez in both real life and fantasy baseball. His K/9 and BB/9 (and thus K/BB) rates have been top of the league since 2000. In fact, since 2000, the only players who have better control (K/BB) rates than Vazquez are Jake Peavy, Pedro Martinez, Josh Beckett, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens. Pretty exclusive company.
Currently, 33 year old Javi has 11 seasons and 200 strikeouts to his name. Since 2000, Javi has managed to pitch 200+ innings in every seasons except 2004 (where he tossed 198 innings). If -- and with pitchers, this is a big if -- Vazquez can pitch another five seasons in the big leagues and maintain the same ratios he did last season (at offense inflating US Cellular Field), Vazquez will be able to reach the exclusive 3000 strikeout mark by the age of 38. If -- again, a BIG if -- he can pitch at this rate for ten seasons, he will reasonably be able to reach the 4,000 K plateau, something that only four other pitchers have ever been able to do.
Javier Vazquez may not have a sexy win total or ERA, but his ratios suggest that he's hall of fame material thus far into his career. If he reaches the 3,000 strikeout mark (let alone the 4,000 K mark), Javi should be a lock to get in by the time his career ends. If Vazquez were to pitch until he was 41 and eclipse the 3,000 K mark at age 38, he could easily pass Greg Maddux for 10th place on the all-time strikeouts list. Fuck Wins, Fuck ERA. Sub-poor offensive teams like the 1999-2003 Expos and 2007 White Sox have prevented Vazquez from racking up elite win totals, while poor defensive teams like the 2005 Diamondbacks and 2007-2008 White Sox have inflated his ERA. Javi deserves a spot in Cooperstown so far.
Now that Vazquez has moved from a offense-friendly park in the AL to an offense-neutral park in the NL, his numbers should only improve going as his K/9 increases/maintains and HR/9 declines. Expect big things from Vazquez going forward.
But that's where all my "criticism" of Javi ends. If you look beneath the situational numbers, you find one of baseball's premier pitchers. Over the past five seasons (1041.1 IP), Javier Vazquez has struck out 939 batters (8.12 K/9) and walked a mere 273 (2.39 BB/9). Even with his high 1.25 HR/9 rate over that five year period, Vasquez still managed to post a FIP just below 4 (3.99), despite playing 4 of those 5 seasons at baseball's most home run friendly parks. If you remove Vasquez's disastrous 2004 campaign from this analysis and we look at the four year period from 2005-2008, we find even more to love about Ozzie's whipping boy.
At HR friendly US Cellular and Chase Field between 2004 and 2008, Javier Vazquez struck out 789, walked 213 and only gave up 112 long balls in 843.1 IP. That's good for a 8.42 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, and remarkable (given the circumstance that Javi is a flyball pitcher at two home run inflating parks) 1.19 HR/9 -- significant improvements on his already great peripherals from the five year analysis. Javi's FIP over this period is a very respectable 3.81.
So if Javi is so great, why were his numbers so terrible over this period of time? The answers are simple.
Vazquez's stint on the Yankees in 2004 was just a down year. Vazquez gave a then career high amount of bombs (33) in a career low amount of innings (198). Vazquez, who had just moved from the NL to the AL that season had to make adjustments and in doing so, his K/9 fell from 9.40 per nine in 2003 to a career low 6.82 per nine in 2004. His walk rate, though not terrible, spiked to a career high 2.73 per nine. Following his down year on the Yankees, Vazquez adjusted and his peripherals returned to normal. His K/9 rose and BB/9 fell to match his career rates and would remain pretty consistent from 2005-2008. However, as Vazquez spent a lot of time in both Chase Field and US Cellular Field, he was still susceptible to the long ball. In 2005, Javier Vazquez topped his home run mark from 2004 with 35 bombs allowed, but did so in 18 extra innings of work. When Vazquez was traded from the Diamondbacks to the White Sox, he not only made the transition from the NL to the AL again (this time, Javi would make the necessary adjustments and his peripherals would remain constant), he moved to one of the worst defensive teams in all of baseball. With the notable exception of Joe Crede, who saw limited playing time due to back injury complications from 2006-2008, and Orlando Cabrera, who only played for the team for one season, the entire White Sox infield and outfield have not only been one of the most below average defensive teams in baseball, but also one of the least efficient at converting balls-in-play into outs. In 2007 and 2008, the White Sox respectively ranked 23rd and 20th in defensive efficiency. If not for Orlando Cabrera last season, the White Sox would have ranked even lower in 2008. Furthermore, in 2006 and 2008, Javier Vazquez's BABIPs were .321 and .328, both career high marks.
Some combination of bad luck, poor defense and home run inflating parks have resulted in a stigma being placed upon Javier Vazquez in both real life and fantasy baseball. His K/9 and BB/9 (and thus K/BB) rates have been top of the league since 2000. In fact, since 2000, the only players who have better control (K/BB) rates than Vazquez are Jake Peavy, Pedro Martinez, Josh Beckett, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens. Pretty exclusive company.
Currently, 33 year old Javi has 11 seasons and 200 strikeouts to his name. Since 2000, Javi has managed to pitch 200+ innings in every seasons except 2004 (where he tossed 198 innings). If -- and with pitchers, this is a big if -- Vazquez can pitch another five seasons in the big leagues and maintain the same ratios he did last season (at offense inflating US Cellular Field), Vazquez will be able to reach the exclusive 3000 strikeout mark by the age of 38. If -- again, a BIG if -- he can pitch at this rate for ten seasons, he will reasonably be able to reach the 4,000 K plateau, something that only four other pitchers have ever been able to do.
Javier Vazquez may not have a sexy win total or ERA, but his ratios suggest that he's hall of fame material thus far into his career. If he reaches the 3,000 strikeout mark (let alone the 4,000 K mark), Javi should be a lock to get in by the time his career ends. If Vazquez were to pitch until he was 41 and eclipse the 3,000 K mark at age 38, he could easily pass Greg Maddux for 10th place on the all-time strikeouts list. Fuck Wins, Fuck ERA. Sub-poor offensive teams like the 1999-2003 Expos and 2007 White Sox have prevented Vazquez from racking up elite win totals, while poor defensive teams like the 2005 Diamondbacks and 2007-2008 White Sox have inflated his ERA. Javi deserves a spot in Cooperstown so far.
Now that Vazquez has moved from a offense-friendly park in the AL to an offense-neutral park in the NL, his numbers should only improve going as his K/9 increases/maintains and HR/9 declines. Expect big things from Vazquez going forward.
Box Score Tonight: April 13
This has gone too far. Someone break up the Padres!!!
- Dye, Konerko both hit home run #300, in the same game, back to back. Hey, it happens every 132 years of baseball. Dewayne Wise hurts his shoulder on a catch, White Sox fans rejoice.
- Pirates pitchers figured out this year it's bad to walk hitters as Zack Duke throws a 4 hit, 2 walk shutout. Former hitting champ Freddy Sanchez hitting .375 with 6 doubles in a contract year. What a koinkidinkie?
- Ted Lilly takes a no-hitter into the 7th inning and the offense has drawn 19 walks the past 2 game, 5 with the bases loaded.
- Phills win after Harry Kalas died in the booth. Cristian Guzman goes 5-5 and we have another Elijah Dukes sighting. Double, homer, 2 RBI
- Orlando Hudson hits the first Cycle by at Dodger at Dodger stadium. Chad Billingsley should be better than he is, like he was today with 11K
- BJ Upton returns to the Rays with a hit, 3 walks, 2SB, 2 runs, and i forget to start him on my fantasy team. Carlos Pena muscled up for a granny and 6RBI. Wang gave up 9 runs in 1IP, again, and Dirty 30 strikes out Gabe Gapler. That should change the percenption of Jews. Nice job representing Gabe
- Mets Citi Field is enormous. I hope nobody just traded for Carlos Beltran. *Caugh* Eckstein *Caugh*. Oh, yeah, break up the padres.
- Edwin Encarnacion hit a grand slam. I'm surprised Dusty didnt have him bunt. Gallardo and Volquez both sucked, but Gallardo a little more. Jason Kendall broke his 0-25 with 2 hits.
- What happens when you mix 2 teams that cant pitch? A 10-9 score.
Andrew Jones, Chris Davis, and Feliz Pie all homer for the first time as the O's win. - Greinke goes 5 shutout with 9K as the Indians are now 1-6. Did anyone realize former Sox great Tony Graffanino is still in the majors, playing over Mark Derosa? That should never happen
- Lind and Snyder are really really good. They might actually add some needed offense to the Jays.
- Former Cub great Todd Wellemeyer continues St. Louis amazing pitching with 7 solid innings. Cards are 6-2 with Ryan Franklin being next in line to get a save for the Cards.
- The Red Sox are quitely 2-5 and Jon Lester is really struggling. Maybe it was too soon to anoit him pitching god after only one good season. Jack Cust - homer(check) walk(check) strike out(check). He's like a machine
Nick Swisher, Pitcher M.D.
In today's Rays v Yankees square off in which the Yankees were pummeled by the Rays 15-5, Nick Swisher, former 1B-turned-CF-returned-1B-turned-pitcher, tossed a scoreless frame for the Bronx Bombers. Swisher walked Upton, struck out Gabe Kaplan and then gave up a single to Willy Aybar before retiring both Carlos Pena and Pat Burrell. Swisher's line for the day was 1 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 K, 0 R, good for a FIP of 4.2.
Need proof?
Reverse Rick Ankiel?
Need proof?
Reverse Rick Ankiel?
Congratulations, White Sox
This White Sox offense is not a stranger to seeing HR milestones. Last year, White Sox DH Jim Thome hit his 500th HR. The only milestone HR to ever that was also a walk off, game winning homer.
Well today, versus Zach Miner and the Detroit Tigers, both Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko hit their 300th HR. Both did it in the 2nd inning and were actually back to back home runs. The first time ever two players hit century mark homers in the same game, nevertheless, the first time it happened back to back.
While J.D. has been on a few team in his career (Royals, Athletics), Konerko has been a White Sox for life. And while Konerko (and Dye too) will probably not be in the team next year, as a White Sox fan, I would like to thank you both for all your service in a White Sox uniform and helping the team win a World Series in 2005.
Congratulations guys.
Well today, versus Zach Miner and the Detroit Tigers, both Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko hit their 300th HR. Both did it in the 2nd inning and were actually back to back home runs. The first time ever two players hit century mark homers in the same game, nevertheless, the first time it happened back to back.
While J.D. has been on a few team in his career (Royals, Athletics), Konerko has been a White Sox for life. And while Konerko (and Dye too) will probably not be in the team next year, as a White Sox fan, I would like to thank you both for all your service in a White Sox uniform and helping the team win a World Series in 2005.
Congratulations guys.
Funneh Pics
It's not really sports related, but here's a look at what made me laugh on the internet today. Don't forget to check out my visual comparison of Miller Park to the Hall of Doom.
Carl Skanberg
One of my favorite Chicago sports commentators is a guy by the name of Carl Skanberg. This guy is fucking hilarious. He mainly writes about the White Sox but obviously makes commentaries about all Chicago sports teams.
I urge you all to go to his blog Smells Like Mascot and if you ever have time to look through his previous series about the 2006 White Sox, The 2007 White Sox, or The 2008 White Sox, and I encourage you to look through his old work as well on the Smells Like Mascot. This guy is just funny as shit and a lot funnier than any of is will ever be. So after you read through all of our obnoxious commentary, go to this guy's blog
ESPNChicago.com is Up and Running
As Cubsfan4evr1 wrote and promised in a previous post, ESPNChicago is here. I'm actually very glad Cubsfan wrote about this because as ESPN, being their normal East Coast Biased bullshit selves, didn't advertise this because Chicago is not on the East Coast. As much as I rant and hate on ESPN I'm addicted and I truly do love the channel. As a die hard Chicago fan, it always upsets me whenever I log into ESPN.com or watch ESPN and there's always lots of coverage devoted to New York, Boston, and L.A. teams, yet Chicago- one of the largest sports markets in the U.S., seems to always get glossed over time and again. I took a brief look around ESPNChicago and it looks exactly like ESPN.com but it's all dedicated to Chicago, which means I know which website I'll be obsessing with after I check/write on this one...
But being their normal ESPN retarded selves, I already have something to complain about. Scoop Jackson writes about why ESPN picked Chicago as the first city to do this with. The answer is that Chicago is one of the greatest cities in America to begin with, but have a shit ton of sports fan who are extremely loyal to their teams. And because we're pissed that ESPN keeps ignoring us and we can only watch Dan Jiggets so so long. But instead, Scoop just goes on and on listing off great players, past and present, and great events in Chicago sports history. Yes, Scoop, we get it. You're trying to pander to us, just get on with it already. But despite my love/hate relationship with ESPN, I think this is a great idea and I hope it lasts and I hope this gets big enough that ESPN will realize that they need to include more Chicago related highlights during their broadcasts
SIDENOTE: Why am I the first one to use "ESPNChicago" as a post label when I'm the second person to write about this website in GOI?
But being their normal ESPN retarded selves, I already have something to complain about. Scoop Jackson writes about why ESPN picked Chicago as the first city to do this with. The answer is that Chicago is one of the greatest cities in America to begin with, but have a shit ton of sports fan who are extremely loyal to their teams. And because we're pissed that ESPN keeps ignoring us and we can only watch Dan Jiggets so so long. But instead, Scoop just goes on and on listing off great players, past and present, and great events in Chicago sports history. Yes, Scoop, we get it. You're trying to pander to us, just get on with it already. But despite my love/hate relationship with ESPN, I think this is a great idea and I hope it lasts and I hope this gets big enough that ESPN will realize that they need to include more Chicago related highlights during their broadcasts
SIDENOTE: Why am I the first one to use "ESPNChicago" as a post label when I'm the second person to write about this website in GOI?
The Frozen Four- An Outsourced Post
When originally creating this site, I asked my brother if he would like to be a commentator. But he wanted to write about dumb sports like Rugby and Cricket so I told him 'no'. But recently the college that he attends, Boston University, won the Frozen Four (obviously the hockey equivalent of March Madness) and since he's just as smart as the four contributors, if not smarter (and obviously much much smarter than Cubsfan4evr1. haha j/k), I of course let him write about his alma mater's great win. And hell, it's not like U of I or DePaul is winning anytime soon anyway. So without further ado, my brother's commentary (with a few of my obnoxious comments mixed within) about BU winning the hockey championship:
Congratulations Boston University: 2009 NCAA Division I Men’s Hockey National Champions
Over this past Saturday night, while the jokers who write for this blog were probably drinking their livers away (HEY!, I did some homework too. Maybe.), Boston University played Miami University for the college hockey championship. BU had been one of top teams in the nation throughout the hockey season, including winning another Beanpot, the Hockey East regular season title and the Hockey East playoffs. Coming into the tournament, BU was ranked number one overall. BU hada narrow victory in the last minutes against the University of New Hampshire in the second round and two squandered leads in the first Frozen Four game against the University of Vermont. Despite this, BU was the clear favorite to win its fifth national hockey title against Miami of Ohio, a school that has never won a national title in any sport. BU senior defenseman Matt Gilroy winning the Hobey Baker Award for top college hockey player the day before only added to the pressure. With a minute remaining in the third period, Miami was beating BU 3 – 1. Having already pulled their goalie, BU went on to score two goals in the last minute of the third period to tie the game. Eventually, BU won it all in overtime. Miami of Ohio was winning 3 to 1 with a minute left and they end up losing. I do not keep track of hockey statistics, but that has to be one of the most improbable comebacks ever. Frankly, the way the RedHawk’s neutral zone defense had been stifling the speed-based offense of BU all night makes the comeback all the more improbable. Anyways, for those who actually watched the game, it was a high quality hockey game with the best sports endings a fan could hope to witness.
Now, I know what you’re thinking right now: “I don’t like professional hockey during the best of times, so why the hell should I care about two random teams and college hockey.” Frankly, you shouldn’t (Nice Audience Adaptation here buddy...). But hear me out as to why I care. I go to BU. We don’t have a football team. Our basketball team has talent, but it’s in the America East conference. This year, Binghamton won the America East men’s basketball tournament and promptly lost to Duke as a 15 seed. You see, my school doesn’t have a big time Big Ten football program. Our basketball program doesn’t make the tournament every year. The one sport BU is good at is hockey. And when that one team wins a national championship in anything, that’s a big moment. I haven’t followed hockey at any level since I was 10, but even I plan on indulging in this moment. And frankly, that’s what I think sports should be all about anyways. It’s escapism, pure and simple, and nothing creates pure joy like seeing your favorite team win a championship. I’m not much of a fan of BU hockey, but this is one of the few moments during my time here at BU where I actually want to be associated with Terriers athletics. And when was the last time the University of Illinois won a sports championship (Hey asshole, at least our team made a real sport tourney and played in a sport that people cared about! haha).
If you would like to read more about the game that of course ESPN neglected to report on besides a few scrolls on the bottom of a screen, you can read about the article here and see video highlights here
Miami of Ohio's top sports alum: Ben Roethlisberger
BU's top sports alum: Mike Eruzione
Sidenotes: This is a tangent. Feel free to not read this. One, I never realized how annoying the announcing style in hockey really is. Next time you watch you watch a hockey game, look out for this. The announcer talks in a normal voice for most of game, then switches to a high shrill anytime the puck ends up remotely close to the net. Announcers in other sports get excited anytime a big play happens, but they’re not as shrill about it as hockey announcers. I don’t get it. Also, throughout ESPN’s coverage of the Frozen Four, ESPN kept referring to BU’s coach as Jackie Parker. His name is Jack, not Jackie. He’s not a boyhood pal. He’s not a mobster. I found it really annoying and disrespectful. He goes by Jack, not Jackie. ESPN and BU hockey are not the close friends that ESPN and the New York Yankees are. Get it right.
Congratulations Boston University: 2009 NCAA Division I Men’s Hockey National Champions
Over this past Saturday night, while the jokers who write for this blog were probably drinking their livers away (HEY!, I did some homework too. Maybe.), Boston University played Miami University for the college hockey championship. BU had been one of top teams in the nation throughout the hockey season, including winning another Beanpot, the Hockey East regular season title and the Hockey East playoffs. Coming into the tournament, BU was ranked number one overall. BU hada narrow victory in the last minutes against the University of New Hampshire in the second round and two squandered leads in the first Frozen Four game against the University of Vermont. Despite this, BU was the clear favorite to win its fifth national hockey title against Miami of Ohio, a school that has never won a national title in any sport. BU senior defenseman Matt Gilroy winning the Hobey Baker Award for top college hockey player the day before only added to the pressure. With a minute remaining in the third period, Miami was beating BU 3 – 1. Having already pulled their goalie, BU went on to score two goals in the last minute of the third period to tie the game. Eventually, BU won it all in overtime. Miami of Ohio was winning 3 to 1 with a minute left and they end up losing. I do not keep track of hockey statistics, but that has to be one of the most improbable comebacks ever. Frankly, the way the RedHawk’s neutral zone defense had been stifling the speed-based offense of BU all night makes the comeback all the more improbable. Anyways, for those who actually watched the game, it was a high quality hockey game with the best sports endings a fan could hope to witness.
Now, I know what you’re thinking right now: “I don’t like professional hockey during the best of times, so why the hell should I care about two random teams and college hockey.” Frankly, you shouldn’t (Nice Audience Adaptation here buddy...). But hear me out as to why I care. I go to BU. We don’t have a football team. Our basketball team has talent, but it’s in the America East conference. This year, Binghamton won the America East men’s basketball tournament and promptly lost to Duke as a 15 seed. You see, my school doesn’t have a big time Big Ten football program. Our basketball program doesn’t make the tournament every year. The one sport BU is good at is hockey. And when that one team wins a national championship in anything, that’s a big moment. I haven’t followed hockey at any level since I was 10, but even I plan on indulging in this moment. And frankly, that’s what I think sports should be all about anyways. It’s escapism, pure and simple, and nothing creates pure joy like seeing your favorite team win a championship. I’m not much of a fan of BU hockey, but this is one of the few moments during my time here at BU where I actually want to be associated with Terriers athletics. And when was the last time the University of Illinois won a sports championship (Hey asshole, at least our team made a real sport tourney and played in a sport that people cared about! haha).
If you would like to read more about the game that of course ESPN neglected to report on besides a few scrolls on the bottom of a screen, you can read about the article here and see video highlights here
Miami of Ohio's top sports alum: Ben Roethlisberger
BU's top sports alum: Mike Eruzione
Sidenotes: This is a tangent. Feel free to not read this. One, I never realized how annoying the announcing style in hockey really is. Next time you watch you watch a hockey game, look out for this. The announcer talks in a normal voice for most of game, then switches to a high shrill anytime the puck ends up remotely close to the net. Announcers in other sports get excited anytime a big play happens, but they’re not as shrill about it as hockey announcers. I don’t get it. Also, throughout ESPN’s coverage of the Frozen Four, ESPN kept referring to BU’s coach as Jackie Parker. His name is Jack, not Jackie. He’s not a boyhood pal. He’s not a mobster. I found it really annoying and disrespectful. He goes by Jack, not Jackie. ESPN and BU hockey are not the close friends that ESPN and the New York Yankees are. Get it right.
Box Score Tonight: April 12
Today's theme will be complete (or near complete) games
- Pronk already has 3 homers this year. Maybe he just needed a few years to adjust to playing without steroids. Youngster David Purcey of the Jays had 10K in 4.2IP. Don't go picking him up in your fantasy leagues, minor league numbers show a crazy high walk rate.
- Brandon Inge in flourashing with 4 home runs now that he doesnt have to play catcher/CF anymore. Dont trust Millwood's fast start, as the summers in texas are humid and the homers abundent
- Pirates turn the triple play, however no answer to Harang's 3 hit shutout. Harang has thrown 230 pitches his first two starts. Dusty will never learn. Moron. MLB has no pitching depth solely due to Dusty. He's the Jack Bauer of baseball
- Josh Johnson complete game outduals Santana's 7IP 13K performance.
- Jeff Francoeur has a new batting stance, still hitting .240. Proving once again that plate discipline is the best metric of hitters. Elijah Dukes sighting equals 3 RBI
- News flask. Adam Eaton has never, ever been good. Why do teams keep trading for him/giving him 40 million dollars. Eaton and Brett Tomko need to hook up and make the world's worst pitching combo
- Twins need Mauer, now. They score a run, increasing their loss run average to 0.5. White Sox hit some homers get some pitching win the game
- Maybe I missed something but why the frick wasnt Rivera closing the Yankee's game today? Some guy named Coke blows the lead, and the anemic Royals get another win.
- Add Kyle Lohse to the list of Cardinal starters to throw scoreless outings. Complete game 3 hitter
- Corpas and Street combine to blow a win against the Phils as Chase Utley and Matt Stairs muscle up. Wonder if it was an ass hammering situation?
- Not only is David Ortiz not hitting, he got thrown out stealing. Why the frick is he stealing? Beckett throws a ball near Abreu's head. Torii hunter goes insane, touches an umpire, will be suspended. Also, how expensive is the Angles outfield. Vlad 15 mil. Torii 18 mil. Matthews Jr. 10 mil. Abreu 5 mil. Rivera 5 mil. 53 million just doesnt buy what it once did
- Bedard outduels Cahill 1-0. Both guys started for my fantasy team. I'm happy :)
- Tim Lincecum gets hit hard again by the Padres. Break up the Padres!!!
- Juan Pierre got the start over Matt Kemp. That should never happen. Dodgers still win behind Randy Wolf. Wolf had a following back in Philly called the wolf pack. Looks like it's back
- Cubs score 4 runs in the 4th on 4 bases loaded walks. Soriano hits another solo leadoff home run. And Reed Johnson makes the first of many memorable plays for the Cubs season. Robbing Fielder of a grand slam by climbing the right field wall. A-freakin-mazing!
Miller Park vs the Hall of Doom
Not convinced? Let's add a "retractable roof."
(For some people who don't know what the fuck I'm referencing, it's this)
Why I Like Mark Buehrle
Well, mainly, I'm a White Sox fan and he's done a lot for the team. But I would also like him as a pitcher no matter what team he played for. Now I'm not saying Buehrle's one of the best pitchers out there and I'm not even saying he's a legit ace on any staff. There are a shit ton of pitchers that are better than Buehrle. But after I just saw him pitch today and realize how The Bright One and David MVP Eckstein have shit on him in the past, I thought I'd explain myself.
Mark Buehrle is the quintessential groundball pitcher. Here's a guy who's sole purpose on the mound is to get batters to hit balls to his infield. And Buehrle is fairly successful at this. Now he's obviously not the greatest, but with a career 4.15 FIP in nine seasons, you most certainly can do worse. A LOT WORSE. (At least he's better than Jason Marquis!). The reason inducing groundballs are nice is for two reasons. The first is that it limits home runs. Buehrle plays in an extremely homer friendly park so the more balls hit on the ground and the less hit in the air, means a lower ERA for Buehrle and helps out his team. Secondly, inducing ground balls means less pitches Buehrle throws. Batters Buehrle faces sees pitches that they think they can hit early in ABs which really gets turned into an out by the infield defense.
One criticism Buehrle gets is that he can't really strike anyone out. In fact, in his no hitter, he only struck out like four or five guys- even though he retired 27. This can be advantageous though- as related to this last point. Strikeouts take a lot of pitches. More pitches means more strain on a pitchers arm. But because Buehrle takes guys out with usually fewer pitches, he can stay in the game longer and thus help out the bullpen. And no matter how good the Sox bullpen is (and right now it's pretty damn good), as Moneyball stated "There's a reason guys are in the bullpen and not starters". Plus, as "Bull Durham" so nicely put it: "Strikeouts are facist"
Now, as I stated in my opener, Buehrle is nowhere near perfect. Relying heavily on your defense can be a huge problem, especially during his 2009 campaign. Right now, the White Sox infield is pretty bad, especially with Alexei Rameriz at SS. By inducing ground balls into a defense that can't field ground balls an not striking out guys will translate into less innings for Buehrle with more runs that the White Sox offense has to make up for. However, this is not entirely Buehrle's fault. Kenny Williams has had Buerhle for his entire tenure as GM and should have prepared for this (and a GM should plan on having a good defense every season no matter what anyway). Not only that, but Buehrle isn't the greatest guy at NOT walking people. If you're going to not strike people out, you have to at least NOT walk people- something Buehrle has not done so well throughout his career.
But despite Buehrle's disadvantages, he still has a lot of value to any team. He adds depth to any rotation and out on a team with an above average to great defense, Buerhle will be spectacular. I think his "traditional stats" this year will be pretty bad and not worth owning in fantasy baseball, but I'm still glad he is in my team's rotation.
Mark Buehrle is the quintessential groundball pitcher. Here's a guy who's sole purpose on the mound is to get batters to hit balls to his infield. And Buehrle is fairly successful at this. Now he's obviously not the greatest, but with a career 4.15 FIP in nine seasons, you most certainly can do worse. A LOT WORSE. (At least he's better than Jason Marquis!). The reason inducing groundballs are nice is for two reasons. The first is that it limits home runs. Buehrle plays in an extremely homer friendly park so the more balls hit on the ground and the less hit in the air, means a lower ERA for Buehrle and helps out his team. Secondly, inducing ground balls means less pitches Buehrle throws. Batters Buehrle faces sees pitches that they think they can hit early in ABs which really gets turned into an out by the infield defense.
One criticism Buehrle gets is that he can't really strike anyone out. In fact, in his no hitter, he only struck out like four or five guys- even though he retired 27. This can be advantageous though- as related to this last point. Strikeouts take a lot of pitches. More pitches means more strain on a pitchers arm. But because Buehrle takes guys out with usually fewer pitches, he can stay in the game longer and thus help out the bullpen. And no matter how good the Sox bullpen is (and right now it's pretty damn good), as Moneyball stated "There's a reason guys are in the bullpen and not starters". Plus, as "Bull Durham" so nicely put it: "Strikeouts are facist"
Now, as I stated in my opener, Buehrle is nowhere near perfect. Relying heavily on your defense can be a huge problem, especially during his 2009 campaign. Right now, the White Sox infield is pretty bad, especially with Alexei Rameriz at SS. By inducing ground balls into a defense that can't field ground balls an not striking out guys will translate into less innings for Buehrle with more runs that the White Sox offense has to make up for. However, this is not entirely Buehrle's fault. Kenny Williams has had Buerhle for his entire tenure as GM and should have prepared for this (and a GM should plan on having a good defense every season no matter what anyway). Not only that, but Buehrle isn't the greatest guy at NOT walking people. If you're going to not strike people out, you have to at least NOT walk people- something Buehrle has not done so well throughout his career.
But despite Buehrle's disadvantages, he still has a lot of value to any team. He adds depth to any rotation and out on a team with an above average to great defense, Buerhle will be spectacular. I think his "traditional stats" this year will be pretty bad and not worth owning in fantasy baseball, but I'm still glad he is in my team's rotation.
Hilarious Observations By Others
Last night, ESPN noted that in one game (4 AB's), Albert Pujols has matched the Royal's entire offensive output to date (167 AB's). Pujols had 2 HRs and 7 RBI last night, while the Royals have 2 HRs and 8 RBI as a team.
Also, as my father notes, the Brewers were forced to let C.C. Sabathia go because between C.C. and Prince Fielder, there was no food to feed anyone else on the team. God damn those mother fuckers are fat!
Also, as my father notes, the Brewers were forced to let C.C. Sabathia go because between C.C. and Prince Fielder, there was no food to feed anyone else on the team. God damn those mother fuckers are fat!
Denard Span CAN Play Everyday
I'm currently watching the Twins/White Sox game right now and I just thought of the problem the Twins have with Denard Span. Span is clearly the best offensive OF the Twins have but because of the great new Twins GM, they have to play Carlos Gomez (top prospect in Johan Santana trade), Delmon Young (player from Matt Garza trade), and Michael Cudddyer (gave him a big contract instead of Johan Santana) [SIDENOTE: see all the GREAT decisions this new GM Smith has made!], Twins OF Denard Span is hard pressed to find a spot in the batting order, right?
Well here's the thing, the Twins play in the AL, they fucking have a DH spot! Today, Span, Gomez, and Young are in the OF, Justin Morneau is at DH, Cuddyer is playing 1B (which was a GREAT move because Cuddyer just made two errors in one play to score a run). In the first game versus the ChiSox, Young, Gomez, and Cuddyer were in the OF, Morneau player 1B, and the great offensive player Jason Kubel with his career .770 OPS and .326 career OBS was the DH. Really? The Twins have a player who had a .387 OBS last year and they bench him for Jason Kubel! Great decision Ron Gardenhire. You know, as great of a manager as Gardie is, if you guys are gonna hate on Ozzie for little decisions, Gardenhire deserves a shit ton of flack for not playing his current second best offensive player.
Also, as bad as Kenny Williams is, I'd still rather have him over Buddy Smith (although apparently the former GM Terry Ryan is his "senior adviser". Great advice. Douchebag.)
Well here's the thing, the Twins play in the AL, they fucking have a DH spot! Today, Span, Gomez, and Young are in the OF, Justin Morneau is at DH, Cuddyer is playing 1B (which was a GREAT move because Cuddyer just made two errors in one play to score a run). In the first game versus the ChiSox, Young, Gomez, and Cuddyer were in the OF, Morneau player 1B, and the great offensive player Jason Kubel with his career .770 OPS and .326 career OBS was the DH. Really? The Twins have a player who had a .387 OBS last year and they bench him for Jason Kubel! Great decision Ron Gardenhire. You know, as great of a manager as Gardie is, if you guys are gonna hate on Ozzie for little decisions, Gardenhire deserves a shit ton of flack for not playing his current second best offensive player.
Also, as bad as Kenny Williams is, I'd still rather have him over Buddy Smith (although apparently the former GM Terry Ryan is his "senior adviser". Great advice. Douchebag.)
The king of generalizations
On the topic of making drastic, unrealistic generalizations based on small sample sizes, we have to introduce the king of kings, Hawk Harrelson. We all know he is prone to hyperbole. Like Miguel Olivo having the strongest arm of any catcher in major league history. Or Neal Cotts having the best delivery in the league. Or an umpire making the worst call ever, every single game. Or Hawk claiming to invent the game of baseball.
Well boys and girls, he have a new one to add to the collection. After the very first game of the baseball season, Hawk went on the Waddle and Silvey radio show and proclaimed that 'Jim Thome is swinging the bat right now better than he has in his career.' Seriously Hawk? You have seen a total of one game this season! Yes, he did hit the game winning home run in the 8th, but how does that equate to swinging the bat better than he has in his career. Mind i remind you that Jim Thome has had 6 40-homer seasons and set the major league record for 8 straight games with a home run.
Henry Blanco his 2 home runs last night. I proclaim he is the best baseball player since babe ruth. End of conversation
Well boys and girls, he have a new one to add to the collection. After the very first game of the baseball season, Hawk went on the Waddle and Silvey radio show and proclaimed that 'Jim Thome is swinging the bat right now better than he has in his career.' Seriously Hawk? You have seen a total of one game this season! Yes, he did hit the game winning home run in the 8th, but how does that equate to swinging the bat better than he has in his career. Mind i remind you that Jim Thome has had 6 40-homer seasons and set the major league record for 8 straight games with a home run.
Henry Blanco his 2 home runs last night. I proclaim he is the best baseball player since babe ruth. End of conversation
The Indians Are Going To The Playoffs, Right?
For the record (as a matter of fact I have a post about this), I never had the Cleveland Indians winning their division. I knew they had a pretty stacked offense and talent in the bullpen, but their starting rotation just looked so awful. Nobody expected Cliff Lee to be nearly as dominant as he was last year and their rotation behind him had Fausto Carmona, Anthony Reyes, and Carl fucking Pavano in it. This almost reminds me of another team... Oh yeah, the 2008 Detroit Tigers.
The Tigers, in recent years, have always had talent in their offense (i.e. Mags, Granderson, Polanco, Guillen) and then they added Miguel Cabrera, Gary Sheffield, and Edgar Renteria who came off off a damn good 2007 stint with the Braves. This offense looked like it would set the record for Runs Scored in a season which would propel them to at LEAST a division title. But when their newly acquired pitcher, Dontrelle Willis, did exactly what his stats predicted he would do and blew up, Justin Verlander stunk it up, Robertson, Bonderman, and Rodgers were their normal sucky selves, and when the GM did nothing to improve a bullpen with no accuracy and injury problems, people then realized that "Oh, yeah, you need SOME semblance of a pitching core to win games"
Well the 2009 Indians are eerily similar. Cliff Lee will probably have similar numbers to Detroit's best pitcher last year- Armando Galarraga and Kerry Wood will most likely bounce back from is poor start and be a solid closer just like Todd Jones was. Both teams also have talented pitchers in their bullpen that have done well in the past, but it looks now (yes I know, extremely small sample size) that Indians will end up with another shitty bullpen, like last years Tigers. Now I'm not going to make any predictions on how this Indians team will fare against the offense of the 2008 Tigers who ended up being 5th in the AL in Runs with a solid 811 (nowhere near the projected 1000+), but it's not unreasonable to assume with Grady Sizemore, Mark DeRosa, V-Mart, Jhonny Peralta and Shin-Soo Choo and even some help from Asdurbal Cabrera, Travis Hafner, and Kelly Shoppach that the Indians can get around the same amount Runs.
But clearly an above average offense is not nearly good enough when your entire pitching core is mediocre at best. You know the expression "Offense wins games but defense wins championships"... yeah well that expression needs an addendum "but you do some SOME defense to win games" If you can't stop your opponent from from scoring, what good is all the scoring you do?
No team that has ever been last team to win a game has ever made the playoffs. EVER. Right now, the Indians are in a race with the Washington Nationals to be the last team to win a game. Both teams are 0-5. The team that was last to win a game last year- The Detroit Tigers. So experts, still think the Indians are going to win the AL Central?
Maybe they should have saw this coming.
The Tigers, in recent years, have always had talent in their offense (i.e. Mags, Granderson, Polanco, Guillen) and then they added Miguel Cabrera, Gary Sheffield, and Edgar Renteria who came off off a damn good 2007 stint with the Braves. This offense looked like it would set the record for Runs Scored in a season which would propel them to at LEAST a division title. But when their newly acquired pitcher, Dontrelle Willis, did exactly what his stats predicted he would do and blew up, Justin Verlander stunk it up, Robertson, Bonderman, and Rodgers were their normal sucky selves, and when the GM did nothing to improve a bullpen with no accuracy and injury problems, people then realized that "Oh, yeah, you need SOME semblance of a pitching core to win games"
Well the 2009 Indians are eerily similar. Cliff Lee will probably have similar numbers to Detroit's best pitcher last year- Armando Galarraga and Kerry Wood will most likely bounce back from is poor start and be a solid closer just like Todd Jones was. Both teams also have talented pitchers in their bullpen that have done well in the past, but it looks now (yes I know, extremely small sample size) that Indians will end up with another shitty bullpen, like last years Tigers. Now I'm not going to make any predictions on how this Indians team will fare against the offense of the 2008 Tigers who ended up being 5th in the AL in Runs with a solid 811 (nowhere near the projected 1000+), but it's not unreasonable to assume with Grady Sizemore, Mark DeRosa, V-Mart, Jhonny Peralta and Shin-Soo Choo and even some help from Asdurbal Cabrera, Travis Hafner, and Kelly Shoppach that the Indians can get around the same amount Runs.
But clearly an above average offense is not nearly good enough when your entire pitching core is mediocre at best. You know the expression "Offense wins games but defense wins championships"... yeah well that expression needs an addendum "but you do some SOME defense to win games" If you can't stop your opponent from from scoring, what good is all the scoring you do?
No team that has ever been last team to win a game has ever made the playoffs. EVER. Right now, the Indians are in a race with the Washington Nationals to be the last team to win a game. Both teams are 0-5. The team that was last to win a game last year- The Detroit Tigers. So experts, still think the Indians are going to win the AL Central?
Maybe they should have saw this coming.
Box Score Tonight: April 11
I've been advised not to make drastic generalizations based on single game performances. Sure. I'm as sure of that as i am that the ShamWow absorbs 20X more water than a normal towel.
- Roy Halladay has quietly been the best pitcher in the AL not named Santana this decade. No exception today. Cliff Lee is one loss shy of last year's total and the Tribe is winless. I can already see Wood and Derosa back in Cubby Blue
- Justin Verlander with a rare quality start and Rodney is officially the new closer.
- Ryan Doumit hitting cleanup with a granny and Paul Maholm continuing his stellar pitching from last year.
- Twins are averaging 8 runs in wins and .33 runs in losses. Today was a loss as Bartolo Colon goes 6 shutout. He is the Angel Cabrera of baseball. The white sox have had 4 different lead-off and 2nd hitters this year.
- Jack Cust is on-basing .619, of course he is. The debute of Cahill, Anderson, and Outman was disappointing. Maybe time to put Gallagher back in the rotation.
- Papelbon needed 39 pitches for the save, while David Ortiz is off to the same start as last year. If Ortiz ever makes it to the HOF, Manny should stand behind him during his speach so everyone knows who got him there.
- 2 words, Albert Pujols. Granny and a 3-run bomb. Wainwright and Carpenter do not allow a run in first starts back from injury
- Livan Hernendez was good today, but should be released in the near future. Hard to get by with 80 mph stuff
- Kenshine Kawakame debutes for the Braves with 8K in 6IP. Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano are both finally healthy.
- Melvin Mora with a granny and Guthrie with 6 shutout innings. O's just keep hitting.
- The Cubs are officially the clutchiest team in the history of sports as Soriano hits 2 run bomb in 9th. Cubsfan3evr should be stoked. Lee and Bradley are hitting a combined .154 and Marmol is apparently the new closer, or until they finally play at home.
- Dirty 30 is the Yankees MVP. Who knew? And CC Sabathia earns his check without allowing a run.
- Chris Iannetta is much better than Yorvit Torrealba yet they still split playing time. What gives?
- The Dodgers look like a very dangerous team that could build on last year and contend for the pennant. They went from having no offense to one of the best, most balanced one's in the league.
- Hank Blanco goes deep, twice! and peavy pitches into the 9th. Break up the padres!
Ken Kadokura
The Chicago Cubs invited Ken Kadokura to Spring Training with a chance to make the team. He was reassigned to minor league camp on March 18th after going 1-0 with a 4.26 era in 6 games, but wasn't that impressive. I came across this video from his days of playing in Japan.
ShamWow guy arrested for ShamPowing a prostitute in the face
This isn't remotely sports related, well it's kinda like mma/boxing, but we all love the ShamWow guy. Dont we? I mean the guy has made a fortune by selling a super mega ultra absorbing...towel. Hey, even Sexy Rexy has one. Well he got arrested for Shamwowing a prostitute in the face. And why does he look 30 years older in his mug shot as opposed to on TV?
Oh Shit, i just found the pic of the girl he massacred.
Box Score Tonight: April 10
Let's see what goodies we had tonight.
- Miguel Cabrera well on his way to the triple crown. Granderson looks prone to repeat his 20-20-20-20 2007 season.
- Why is Anna Benson married to Kris Benson again? He basically has Carl Pavano syndrome 5IP 7ER.
- Top prospect Adam Lind continues to rake with 11RBI, and Scott Rolen suddenly has power again? Indians can't win squat with the crap pitching they throw out there every day
- After Buster Olney said Rich Harden looks aweful and was throwing 86MPH in spring straining, he goes out and dominates 6IP 10K. Like all other ESPN baseball analysts, Buster is not immune to sucking. Stop making fun of sabermetrics just cause you cant understand it!
- Robinson Cano is having a strong start, possibly showing is .340BA in 2007 was no fluke. And why does sidney ponson still have a job? He's the John Daly of MLB
- Cole Hamels needed more rest 3IP 7ER, while Jason Marquis stepped up both on the mound and at the plate for the rocks. Dont worry, he'll still have the usual 7ERA in the second half
- I'm starting to think Evan Longoria may have a future in this game. 2 more homers giving him a MLB best 4. The Orioles once again have a greatly underrated offense.
- Marlins are 4-0 thanks to a ridiculous pitching staff. Nolasco, Johnson, Volstad, and Sanchez dominating first time through the rotation. Emelio Bonifacio is playing out of his mind. However, minor league numbers suggest he will soon reverberate to hitting .220
- Jordan Shafer just looks like a ball player, very old school, and very good. Brian McCann also lost weight and is raking at the plate
- It took Denard Span 1 game to prove he's not the 4th outfielder. Shannon Stewart type player. Twins single the white sox to death. And Joe Crede takes old team deep.
- Why does Houston think bringing in old guys: Pudge, Tejada, Erstad, Hampton is a good idea? Ludwick showing doubters that his 2008 was for realz
- Felipe Lopez has been in the bigs since 2001 and has topped 100 games twice. He out Milton Bradley's Milton Bradley.
- The Red Sox are off to a slow offensive slump. Why did they get rid of Manny again? Winning championships wasnt enough for them? Angels get an emotional win thanks to Jered Weaver's 6 shutout innings
- Brett Anderson with a solid start for the A's, minus the 5 run inning he allowed to the M's. Some guy names Jakubauskas got the win for the Mariners
- The Padres are 3-2! Break them up. Seriously, i want peavy on the cubs. Surprise surprise, Barry Zito is still overpaid. At least he looks good in a pair of jeans
Can 2009 Cubs comeback from behind?
Can 2009 Cubs comeback from behind?
The 2008 Chicago Cubs were good at coming back from behind in games. How many come from behind victories do you think the Cubs managed in 2008? The 2008 Cubs had a great group of players which didn’t care about the score and could rally no matter the deficit. I don’t know if this team can do it after the way they played today and the sloppy play. Let’s hope they start playing better. The Cubs managed 44 come from behind wins in 2008.
The 2008 Chicago Cubs were good at coming back from behind in games. How many come from behind victories do you think the Cubs managed in 2008? The 2008 Cubs had a great group of players which didn’t care about the score and could rally no matter the deficit. I don’t know if this team can do it after the way they played today and the sloppy play. Let’s hope they start playing better. The Cubs managed 44 come from behind wins in 2008.
ESPN coming local
ESPN is coming out with a website devoted to Chicago sports. I find this interesting because their coverage of Chicago sports on t.v. and their website has never been that good. For a major city they always seem to overlook us. Now their trying to provide good coverage with a website just for us called: http://espn.go.com/chicago/
It will be ESPN’s first regional website devoted to a local sport market. If the site goes well in Chicago they will try it out for other cities.
It will be ESPN’s first regional website devoted to a local sport market. If the site goes well in Chicago they will try it out for other cities.
What Happens After You Win Rookie Of The Year?
I was briefly watching ESPN recently and they shows stats on Dustin Pedroia. Last year he was the AL MVP, but it totally slipped my mind that he won Rookie of the Year (ROY) the year before. I recently wrote a post analyzing the 2009 Basketball HOF class and two of the three players won the ROY. This got me thinking, how good have recent Rookies of the Years been after they win the award? Are sports writers good at determining future success of players? Does it seem to be ROY have one great year and then fade away?
Not accounting for last year because the future hasn't happened yet to determine how good the players are, here's a list of AL and NL ROY
2007- NL Ryan Braun; AL- Dustin Pedroia
2006- NL Hanley Rameriz; AL- Justin Verlander
2005- NL Ryan Howard; AL- Houston Street
2004- NL Jason Bay; AL- Bobby Crosby
2003- NL Dontrelle Willis; AL- Angel Berroa
Some other notables that won ROY and are still playing are: Albert Pujols, Ichiro, Rafeal Furcal, Derek Jeter, Nomar, Carlos Beltran, and Kerry Wood.
Overall this is a pretty good list. Braun and Hanley are flat out amazing and will soon probably win MVPs (in fact Hanley deserved it over J-Roll), Pedroia, Howard, and Pujols have MVPs, and Jason Bay isn't amazing but he's darn good. The two Oakland selections, Street and Crosby, are unfair to say their bad because they have had careers marred by injury. The other two pitchers left, Verlander and D-Train, are somewhat enigmas. In Verlander's 3 years of pitching, he has had two damn fine years and one terrible year (last year). Dontrelle has always showed signs of decline but it seems fitting that when he was moved into the same rotation as Verlander, he blew up and was forced to play in single-A he was so bad. And as for Angel Berrea, well he never ever came close to matching getting HR and SB ever in his career.
The NBA looks like a different story. Maybe because it only has one ROY instead of two, the list of ROY are a pretty elite class.
2007- Brandon Roy
2006- Chris Paul
2005- Emeka Okafor
2004- LeBron James
2003- Amare Stoudemire
2002- Pau Gasol
James is just flat out fantastic and will win the MVP this year, Paul is a legit MVP contender (and was last year), and Gasol, Roy, and Stoudemire are damn good elite players as well. Okafor is a pretty good player as well, but is nowhere in the same category as the other five guys (although neither is the runner up in '05- Ben Gordon). However, I think it's interesting to note that there are no current MVP winner among these players- unlike the MLB.
Here's a list of offensive and defensive ROY from the NFL
2007: O- Adrian Peterson; D- Patrick Willis
2006: O- Vince Young; D- DeMeco Ryans
2005: O- Cadallac Williams; D- Shawn Merriman
2004: O- Big Ben; D- Jonathan Vilma
2003: O- Anquan Boldin; D- Terrel Suggs
The defense is a not the best of the best seemingly but all are still players any team would pay a lot of money to play for them. In fact three out of the next four defensive ROY in later years are: Julius Peppers, Brian Urlacher, and Javon Kearse. The offensive on the other hand is a bit shaky. AP is amazing and Anquan Boldin is one of the best receivers out there. But after that the list goes downhill. Big Ben is fine for the Steelers organization but as I've said in a previous post, I don't trust him. Vince Young has helped "win" games for the Titans but he's not really panning out to be worth the #3 overall pick and lost his job to fucking Kerry Collins. And as for Cadallic, after player an ungodly number of downs his rookie year, his season has been marred by injury and ineffectiveness. Other notable offensive ROY are: Clinton Portis, Edge, and Randy Moss, but in between was Mike Anderson and the A-Train Anthony Thomas
So what do these lists tell us about the players? Well for MLB it seems that offensive ROY, when healthy, pan out to be the games elite. However for pitchers, it seems to be that they peter out after a few years. Maybe it's because they were overworked so young and that's why they were so good but all that work catches up to them. Or maybe it's just dumb luck. You seem to be in good shape if you win the NBA ROY seeing as all recent winners are above average players and all but one (Okefar) can change a franchise (or at least be really really really fucking good for one). As for the NFL, like the NBA, you seem to be in good shape if you win the defensive ROY. But on the other hand, it may be good for your career if you don't win offensive ROY.
Now yes, there is obviously a sample size issue and a causality issue. I don't think these need to be explained further but obviously all my 'analysis' is subject to extreme scrutiny. But that being said I think there are some logical explanations nonetheless for these "trends".
-Offensive baseball ROY- Players go through a lot before they make it to the big leagues. They have to go through years in a minor league system, honing their craft before they can play pro. So when young guys are brought up to the majors, not only do they have years of practice but GMs have a good sense of how good a player is before he gets brought up. So if a GM sees a great player in the minors, chances are he'll be great in the majors.
-Pitching baseball ROY- as mentioned earlier, based off of nothing mind you, I think the great pitchers who earn ROY get overworked and thus what got them ROY also causes injuries and being bad.
-Basketball ROY- Good players look better on bad teams. If a team has a high draft pick, that means high draft picks go on bad teams. This allows teams to not only draft around their high draft pick in later years but it also allows the high draft pick to "do what he does" and show off, thus making him look good. Plus, the NBA talent to choose from in the college level is pretty poor anyways and you might have the #4 pick and it be worthless to you. This makes the top draft picks destined to be great anyways. I think all these factors show why ROY tend to be pretty darn good.
-Defensive football ROY- Look at all those players, all those were high draft picks. I think that is just a testament to all the talent that is out there. But mainly, I think its because a a great defensive player can shine no mater how good or bad the team is around him. If you're a great DE that can get to the QB, then who cares if the rest of your team is bad, you're still able to get sacks and be great. Although LB rely heavily on their D-line, if you're a good athletic guy, then your line in front of you really doesn't matter as long you can make tackles. Because individuals can succeed despite their team and because great teams with low draft picks can still draft quality defensive players late in the first or whatever round, that is why defensive ROY tend to be a pretty good class
-Offensive football ROY- However, unlike defensive players, rookie offensive players rely heavily on the team around them. No matter how good of a QB you are, if you get drafted to shitty team with a shitty O-line, you're gonna be kind of shitty. Hell, look at Kevin Jones last year. This kid has amazing talent but you can't look good when you have that Detroit O-line in front of you. Because great talent that gets drafted high tend to go to shitty teams, I think you tend to see a below average group of offensive ROY.
But just because you win ROY, no matter what the trend seems to be, does not mean anything for your future. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, LT, Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Kobe Bryant, Dewayne Wade, Dwight Howard, Grady Sizemore, Miguel Cabrera, and Jose Reyes have never won ROY are all among their games elite. Ozzie Guillen won ROY of the year and he's one of the worst offensive players in the HISTORY of baseball. At the other end of the spectrum, Michael Jordan, Shaq, Larry Bird, Cal Ripken Jr, Mike Piazza, Pete Rose, Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, and Lawrence Taylor all HAVE won ROY and all are some of the greatest in their sport. Obviously winning ROY doesn't mean you will be great and just because you didn't win it doesn't mean you can't be great.
So what does the future hold in store for Evan Longoria, Geovany Soto, Jerod Mayo, Matt Ryan, Kevin Durant, and Derrick Rose (cross your fingers)? Who knows. But I think it's interesting as hell to study the past to see what might occur.
Not accounting for last year because the future hasn't happened yet to determine how good the players are, here's a list of AL and NL ROY
2007- NL Ryan Braun; AL- Dustin Pedroia
2006- NL Hanley Rameriz; AL- Justin Verlander
2005- NL Ryan Howard; AL- Houston Street
2004- NL Jason Bay; AL- Bobby Crosby
2003- NL Dontrelle Willis; AL- Angel Berroa
Some other notables that won ROY and are still playing are: Albert Pujols, Ichiro, Rafeal Furcal, Derek Jeter, Nomar, Carlos Beltran, and Kerry Wood.
Overall this is a pretty good list. Braun and Hanley are flat out amazing and will soon probably win MVPs (in fact Hanley deserved it over J-Roll), Pedroia, Howard, and Pujols have MVPs, and Jason Bay isn't amazing but he's darn good. The two Oakland selections, Street and Crosby, are unfair to say their bad because they have had careers marred by injury. The other two pitchers left, Verlander and D-Train, are somewhat enigmas. In Verlander's 3 years of pitching, he has had two damn fine years and one terrible year (last year). Dontrelle has always showed signs of decline but it seems fitting that when he was moved into the same rotation as Verlander, he blew up and was forced to play in single-A he was so bad. And as for Angel Berrea, well he never ever came close to matching getting HR and SB ever in his career.
The NBA looks like a different story. Maybe because it only has one ROY instead of two, the list of ROY are a pretty elite class.
2007- Brandon Roy
2006- Chris Paul
2005- Emeka Okafor
2004- LeBron James
2003- Amare Stoudemire
2002- Pau Gasol
James is just flat out fantastic and will win the MVP this year, Paul is a legit MVP contender (and was last year), and Gasol, Roy, and Stoudemire are damn good elite players as well. Okafor is a pretty good player as well, but is nowhere in the same category as the other five guys (although neither is the runner up in '05- Ben Gordon). However, I think it's interesting to note that there are no current MVP winner among these players- unlike the MLB.
Here's a list of offensive and defensive ROY from the NFL
2007: O- Adrian Peterson; D- Patrick Willis
2006: O- Vince Young; D- DeMeco Ryans
2005: O- Cadallac Williams; D- Shawn Merriman
2004: O- Big Ben; D- Jonathan Vilma
2003: O- Anquan Boldin; D- Terrel Suggs
The defense is a not the best of the best seemingly but all are still players any team would pay a lot of money to play for them. In fact three out of the next four defensive ROY in later years are: Julius Peppers, Brian Urlacher, and Javon Kearse. The offensive on the other hand is a bit shaky. AP is amazing and Anquan Boldin is one of the best receivers out there. But after that the list goes downhill. Big Ben is fine for the Steelers organization but as I've said in a previous post, I don't trust him. Vince Young has helped "win" games for the Titans but he's not really panning out to be worth the #3 overall pick and lost his job to fucking Kerry Collins. And as for Cadallic, after player an ungodly number of downs his rookie year, his season has been marred by injury and ineffectiveness. Other notable offensive ROY are: Clinton Portis, Edge, and Randy Moss, but in between was Mike Anderson and the A-Train Anthony Thomas
So what do these lists tell us about the players? Well for MLB it seems that offensive ROY, when healthy, pan out to be the games elite. However for pitchers, it seems to be that they peter out after a few years. Maybe it's because they were overworked so young and that's why they were so good but all that work catches up to them. Or maybe it's just dumb luck. You seem to be in good shape if you win the NBA ROY seeing as all recent winners are above average players and all but one (Okefar) can change a franchise (or at least be really really really fucking good for one). As for the NFL, like the NBA, you seem to be in good shape if you win the defensive ROY. But on the other hand, it may be good for your career if you don't win offensive ROY.
Now yes, there is obviously a sample size issue and a causality issue. I don't think these need to be explained further but obviously all my 'analysis' is subject to extreme scrutiny. But that being said I think there are some logical explanations nonetheless for these "trends".
-Offensive baseball ROY- Players go through a lot before they make it to the big leagues. They have to go through years in a minor league system, honing their craft before they can play pro. So when young guys are brought up to the majors, not only do they have years of practice but GMs have a good sense of how good a player is before he gets brought up. So if a GM sees a great player in the minors, chances are he'll be great in the majors.
-Pitching baseball ROY- as mentioned earlier, based off of nothing mind you, I think the great pitchers who earn ROY get overworked and thus what got them ROY also causes injuries and being bad.
-Basketball ROY- Good players look better on bad teams. If a team has a high draft pick, that means high draft picks go on bad teams. This allows teams to not only draft around their high draft pick in later years but it also allows the high draft pick to "do what he does" and show off, thus making him look good. Plus, the NBA talent to choose from in the college level is pretty poor anyways and you might have the #4 pick and it be worthless to you. This makes the top draft picks destined to be great anyways. I think all these factors show why ROY tend to be pretty darn good.
-Defensive football ROY- Look at all those players, all those were high draft picks. I think that is just a testament to all the talent that is out there. But mainly, I think its because a a great defensive player can shine no mater how good or bad the team is around him. If you're a great DE that can get to the QB, then who cares if the rest of your team is bad, you're still able to get sacks and be great. Although LB rely heavily on their D-line, if you're a good athletic guy, then your line in front of you really doesn't matter as long you can make tackles. Because individuals can succeed despite their team and because great teams with low draft picks can still draft quality defensive players late in the first or whatever round, that is why defensive ROY tend to be a pretty good class
-Offensive football ROY- However, unlike defensive players, rookie offensive players rely heavily on the team around them. No matter how good of a QB you are, if you get drafted to shitty team with a shitty O-line, you're gonna be kind of shitty. Hell, look at Kevin Jones last year. This kid has amazing talent but you can't look good when you have that Detroit O-line in front of you. Because great talent that gets drafted high tend to go to shitty teams, I think you tend to see a below average group of offensive ROY.
But just because you win ROY, no matter what the trend seems to be, does not mean anything for your future. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, LT, Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Kobe Bryant, Dewayne Wade, Dwight Howard, Grady Sizemore, Miguel Cabrera, and Jose Reyes have never won ROY are all among their games elite. Ozzie Guillen won ROY of the year and he's one of the worst offensive players in the HISTORY of baseball. At the other end of the spectrum, Michael Jordan, Shaq, Larry Bird, Cal Ripken Jr, Mike Piazza, Pete Rose, Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, and Lawrence Taylor all HAVE won ROY and all are some of the greatest in their sport. Obviously winning ROY doesn't mean you will be great and just because you didn't win it doesn't mean you can't be great.
So what does the future hold in store for Evan Longoria, Geovany Soto, Jerod Mayo, Matt Ryan, Kevin Durant, and Derrick Rose (cross your fingers)? Who knows. But I think it's interesting as hell to study the past to see what might occur.
