Revisiting DME's Hatred Of Dustin Pedroia

I made a lot of predictions for the 2009 season. Some were correct (see Javier Vazquez, Josh Beckett (May-August), Justin Verlander, Dice-K, et. al). Some were incredibly wrong (see John Lester, Kevin Youkilis, Gavin Floyd, Felix Hernandez, et. al). But one thing that I have adamantly argued, perhaps more than my love for Dan Haren is how overrated I thought Dustin Pedroia was -- both in real life and fantasy -- heading into this season.

I had some harsh things to say about Dustin Pedroia going into 2009:

"Something about an MVP who can't hit 20 HRs in unsatisfying. While undeniably useful as 5 category 2B last year, his increasing GB/FB ratio and declining BB% are worrisome. With a strong LD% and speed, his high AVG should persist, but don't expect anything above 15 HRs. Considering that all but a few second basemen are second tier, it's not worth wasting a third round pick on a 2B (unless you get Kinlser or Utley at a ridiculous discount) when you can have the negligibly worse Mark DeRosa 12 rounds later."

Was I right to hate on Pedroia? Let's look at their comparative batting lines.

DeRosa 2009:
.250/.319/.433 (.327 wOBA),23 HR, 78 R, 78 RBI, 3 SB

Pedroia 2009:
.296/.371/.447 (.360 wOBA), 15 HR, 115 R, 72 RBI, 20 SB

Pedroia definitely regressed some this season, but retained most of his value from 2008. Yahoo ranked Pedroia as the 8th best 2B and 49th best fantasy player overall. Pedroia made some gains in his peripherals (increased walk rate, decreased strikeout rate) and regressed in others (Pedroia saw his ISO fall from .167 to .152, he clipped less LD's and his speed score dipped a full point (which can be noticed in the decrease in SB%). Pedroia' .360 wOBA, however, is hardly anything to sneeze at (let alone for a second basemen) and his 2009 level of production is more akin to what I have associated his skill set with. Take note that Pedroia's Yahoo ranking going into 2009 was 23. He was clearly overrated last season, but perhaps after a more "milding" 2009, Pedroia's 2010 fantasy value will be more break-even than loss.

DeRosa, on the other hand, took a nose dive in the batting average department due to a nose dive in line drives (from +22% from 2006-2008 to 16.6% in 2009) and therefore BABIP (.286 BABIP in 2009 [in line with his seasonal xBABIP], despite a career .315 mark). Perhaps much of it has to due with the wrist injury, but DeRosa's ISO fell from .196 to .183, the walk rate dipped from the double digit rates he posted on the Cubs to 8.4% and the strikeout rate also increased. The resulting .327 wOBA was league average and Fangraphs generously valued him at a temperate 1.6 WAR due to the fact that he played only slightly below average defense at 2B last year (see Positional Adjustment). DeRosa was ranked as the 144th player going into 2009 and ended up being #183 by the end of the season (21st best 2B, behind a handful of undrafted players). These are not good signs for a soon-to-be 35 year old 2B coming off of wrist surgery.

So yeah, I was wrong about DeRosa in 2009.

However, if DeRosa was healthy and not playing on the shitty offensive "team" that was the Indians for half of last season, who knows what his numbers would have looked like. Even with the regression in BB%, K%, and ISO, if you were to adjust DeRosa's 2009 batting line for a .315 BABIP (I have to make the assumption that DeRosa's wrist problems hindered his ability to drive the ball in 2009, given his Matt Kemp-like LD% from 2006-2008), DeRosa's 2009 BA would be .282, his OBP would be in the .350 range and, assuming the same ISO for the additional hits, his SLG would be around .533. A .282/.350/.533 batting line (.883 OPS) is nothing to sneeze at and would have provided much more offensive value than Pedroia's .813 OPS.

So what am I saying? Basically, DeRosa, in my opinion got screwed by his wrist injury and bad luck. If I am right and DeRosa can fully recover from his off-season wrist surgery (ask Derrek Lee, it's definitely not something that's easy to come back from), he has the potential to continue to provide much value, wherever his team may play him.

I refuse to apologize for my prediction because although I may have been wrong, I still believe in DeRosa. A 25 HR season with 100 R/RBI was not out of the question if he was on a better team and healthy. Let's hope he gets fixed up for next year and continue to be more than just the clubhouse presence he is well known for (and the Cubs so desperately missed).

On a separate note, A-Rod went 0-4 last night with 3 K's. Let the flurry of "A-Rod is unclutch" headlines begin...