Fantasy Watch: Jair Jurrjens

Jair Jurrjens is apparently on the mend, with an MRI schedueled later today in order "to determine the cause of soreness in his right shoulder." Despite pitching a career high 215 innings in his age 23 season, Jurrjens only received a 27.1 innings bump compared to 2008, safely within the theoretical "Verducci Effect" threshold, while falling outside the top 30 abused arms label (he was #48 in total Pitcher Abuse Points last season, not bad considering he was top 20 in innings pitched last season). What this means is the Jurrjens injury, provided it is nothing serious, should not scare off prospective drafters/bidders. Though he's not as good of a pitcher as his ERA would indicate last season, he is a legit mid-to-upper 3's ERA guy with a serviceable 1.30ish WHIP and a slightly above average K/9 rate to boot. Worthy of a round 10-12 pick? I would say so. Just not much higher, given the general depth in pitching.

Regardless of the long term impact this temporary setback may have on Jurrjen's 2010 campaign, the short term consequences upon another young star may be significant. If Jurrjen misses a start or two at the beginning of the season, this would open a temporary spot in the rotation for Kris Medlen to spot start. Despite the rusty beginnings as a starter last season, Medlen showed a lot of potential out of the pen. Medlen has 3 quality offerings (changeup-fastball-curveball) with identical release points and vastly different levels of break. Medlen could be a real fantasy bargain in 2010 if he succeeds in a starting role and sticks with it.

I will be keeping an eye on this situation.