Verlander or King Felix?

According to AP (through ESPN), the Tigers and Justin Verlander have come to an agreement on a five-year, $80 million deal. This comes on the heels of King Felix's five-year, $78 million dollar deal. In terms of value, both pitchers are quite comparable. Since 2006, Verlander has been worth +3.1, +4.1, +3.4, and +8.2 WAR; cumulatively +18.8 WAR. King Felix, on the other hand, has posted +3.8, +4.1, +3.9, and +6.9 WAR seasons in that same time frame (he also posted a +2.6 WAR half-season in 2005); cumulatively, +18.6 WAR. On the surface, the two pitchers seem equally worthy of the deals they signed. The current market value of 1 WAR is approximately $3.5 million. If we pessimistically assess both pitchers as +4.5 WAR players each of the next five years, then each would provide their respective team with +22.5 WAR, or $78.5 million in free agency value. It would seem like both the Tigers and Mariners are simply locking each pitcher up "at market value," but its important to note that 1) premium arms tend to come at a premium price and 2) each team is in such a position to compete for a playoff position that the marginal value of a win may be worth more than market value. This assessment of "market value" also assumes that both Verlander and King Felix average "only" +4.5 WAR per season through their prime years.

Though I see both contracts as quality signings for their respective teams, it is an important question to ask whether or not Verlander deserves more money than King Felix. Verlander has a negligibly higher cumulative WAR since 2006 and 7 more wins in 6 less starts than Felix Hernandez, but King Felix bests Verlander in terms of career numbers in the following categories:

• ERA (3.45 v. 3.92)
  
• FIP (3.54 v. 3.78)
  
• xFIP (3.43 v. 4.14)
  
• BB/9 (2.68 v. 3.02)
  
• K/9 (8.18 v. 7.99)
  
• GB% (53.4% v 39.7%)
• Age (born in 1986 v. 1983)
  

Even though between the two, Verlander has the best "single season" to his credit, Verlander's been less consistent year to year than has been King Felix. Whereas King Felix's career high in FIP is 3.91 and whereas his FIP standard deviation since 2006 has been 0.371, Verlander has only one season with a FIP below 3.99 and his FIP standard deviation since 2006 is 0.702. Other factors to consider are ballpark and team defense, both of which favor King Felix.

Taking all of this data as a whole, I would say that Felix Hernandez is the one who deserves the higher paid contract. Verlander had the better breakout year, but in both fantasy and real life terms, King Felix will be the more valuable (and younger player). Felix already has better peripherals and -- based on age, defense and park dimensions -- seemingly more superficial upside come years four and five of the contract.

In the short term, however, both players should provide comparable value. CHONE pegs Justin Verlander as being worth +49 runs prevented compared to the average pitcher (RPAA) over 194 IP, while Felix Hernandez is projected as a +50 RPAA pitcher per 200 IP.