My Bromance With King Felix

I made no qualms expressing my love for King Felix this year. I think Felix will be the second best pitcher (behind Lincecum and ahead of Halladay). I said if I had a very late pick in my snake draft and Lincecum was off the board, I would take Felix with my first or second pick (Although to be honest I'm happy it didn't come to that). I am all in on DME's praise for Jack Zduriencik and I think he's done a great job with the Mariners this year.

Now it's no shock Felix is good. Felix has a 31.08 ADP on MDC and after a 19 W, 2.49 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, with 217 strike outs and a runner up to the AL Cy Young, Felix is on everybody's radar. Yet I think Felix is underrated. MDC has The King as the 5th best pitcher behind Lincecum, Halladay, Sabathia, and Grienke, because like I said, I think Felix will be the second best.


Here's some of Hernandez' stats like which would make him just very good:
- Felix has increased his K/9 the past three years (7.80, 7.85, 8.18)
- Felix has a great GB/FB ratio. His worst ratio was last year with a 1.79 groundball to flyball ratio
- Last year Felix took big jumps in FIP (3.80 to 3.09), xFIP (3.87 to 3.42), BB/9 (3.59 to 2.68), and WHIP (1.39 to 1.14)
- Felix started at least 30 games in the past four seasons

But the biggest reasons I like Felix is because of his age, his defense, and his ballpark
- Felix is only 24 years old (or he will be in a month). The guys already has had so much success and still has not entered into his prime
- Seattle is stockpiling defense. Last year, Seattle had the best defensive team anchored by CF Franklin Gutierrez (who was the best defensive outfielder with a minimum of 500 innings). Sure, their second best defender last year in Adrian Beltre was let go, but getting replaced by Chone Figgins is a damn good replacement. Figgins has a career 8.0 UZR/150 at third, but in the four out of the six season where Figgins had a positive UZR/150- he averaged a 14.6 UZR/150- with a career high last year.
- Here's some of the other few Mariners: Jack Wilson (career 5.9 UZR/150, averaged 18.5 his past two seasons), Ichiro (career 10.3 UZR/150 in the outfield), Gutierrez (career 26.3 UZR/150 at CF), Casey Kotchman (since 2006 he's had an average 11.1 UZR/150), and Jose Lopez (career 0.6 UZR/150 at second). Get the hint?
- Last year SAFECO was 24th in HR given up, 18th in hits given up, and 21st in runs given up. Not a bad place for a pitcher to call home. Plus, he gets to play his fair share of game in the Oakland Coliseum as well.


Felix's raw talent makes him a top ten pitcher. That talent combined with his youth, a great defense, and a pitcher friendly ballpark makes him the second best pitcher in my book.

Verlander or King Felix?

According to AP (through ESPN), the Tigers and Justin Verlander have come to an agreement on a five-year, $80 million deal. This comes on the heels of King Felix's five-year, $78 million dollar deal. In terms of value, both pitchers are quite comparable. Since 2006, Verlander has been worth +3.1, +4.1, +3.4, and +8.2 WAR; cumulatively +18.8 WAR. King Felix, on the other hand, has posted +3.8, +4.1, +3.9, and +6.9 WAR seasons in that same time frame (he also posted a +2.6 WAR half-season in 2005); cumulatively, +18.6 WAR. On the surface, the two pitchers seem equally worthy of the deals they signed. The current market value of 1 WAR is approximately $3.5 million. If we pessimistically assess both pitchers as +4.5 WAR players each of the next five years, then each would provide their respective team with +22.5 WAR, or $78.5 million in free agency value. It would seem like both the Tigers and Mariners are simply locking each pitcher up "at market value," but its important to note that 1) premium arms tend to come at a premium price and 2) each team is in such a position to compete for a playoff position that the marginal value of a win may be worth more than market value. This assessment of "market value" also assumes that both Verlander and King Felix average "only" +4.5 WAR per season through their prime years.

Though I see both contracts as quality signings for their respective teams, it is an important question to ask whether or not Verlander deserves more money than King Felix. Verlander has a negligibly higher cumulative WAR since 2006 and 7 more wins in 6 less starts than Felix Hernandez, but King Felix bests Verlander in terms of career numbers in the following categories:

• ERA (3.45 v. 3.92)
  
• FIP (3.54 v. 3.78)
  
• xFIP (3.43 v. 4.14)
  
• BB/9 (2.68 v. 3.02)
  
• K/9 (8.18 v. 7.99)
  
• GB% (53.4% v 39.7%)
• Age (born in 1986 v. 1983)
  

Even though between the two, Verlander has the best "single season" to his credit, Verlander's been less consistent year to year than has been King Felix. Whereas King Felix's career high in FIP is 3.91 and whereas his FIP standard deviation since 2006 has been 0.371, Verlander has only one season with a FIP below 3.99 and his FIP standard deviation since 2006 is 0.702. Other factors to consider are ballpark and team defense, both of which favor King Felix.

Taking all of this data as a whole, I would say that Felix Hernandez is the one who deserves the higher paid contract. Verlander had the better breakout year, but in both fantasy and real life terms, King Felix will be the more valuable (and younger player). Felix already has better peripherals and -- based on age, defense and park dimensions -- seemingly more superficial upside come years four and five of the contract.

In the short term, however, both players should provide comparable value. CHONE pegs Justin Verlander as being worth +49 runs prevented compared to the average pitcher (RPAA) over 194 IP, while Felix Hernandez is projected as a +50 RPAA pitcher per 200 IP.