Don Leypoldt over at The Hardball Times wrote an interesting article about the odds of throwing a perfect game. According to his estimates, the chances of three perfectos occurring in one month is approximately 1 in 2,000,000. Leypoldt's article and analysis inspired me to look at the odds of a perfect game occurring today.
On Base Percentage (OBP) is the likelihood of getting on-base. Outs Percentage (OP), calculated as 1-OBP, is the chance that an out is made. I wanted to take this and look at the possibility of the Cubs throwing a perfect game today, but the variability of pitchers hitting (and the double switch) makes lineup prediction for a whole game more volatile in the NL than AL. So, instead, I will look at the White Sox's opponent, the Cleveland Indians, and assume that there are no late-inning defensive replacements which will occur and that the OPs to date represent their true OBP ability (no sample size/random noise issues).
The Sizemore-less Indians lineup (.324 team OBP), in terms of OP, is as follows:
C - Lou Marson = .727
1B - Russell Branyan = .683
2B - Luis Valbuena = .706
SS - Jason Donald = .714
3B - Jhonny Peralta = .671
RF - Shin-Soo Choo = .620
CF - Austin Kearns = .629
LF - Shelly Duncan = .579
DH - Travis Hafner = .639
The product of each Indian's OP cubed yields a neutral context perfect game probability (or improbability) of 0.00001423%.
By contrast, the Yankees have a team OBP of .366 and their starting lineup's OP, as currently situated, looks like this:
C - Frank Cervelli = .625
1B - Mark Teixeira = .664
2B - Robinson Cano = .593
SS - Derek Jeter = .648
3B - Alex Rodriguez = .626
RF - Nick Swisher = .599
CF - Curtis Granderson = .658
LF - Brett Gardner = .622
DH - Jorge Posada = .607
The product of each Yankee's OP cubed yields a neutral context perfect game probability (or extreme improbability) of 0.00000328%. That means that, as currently situated, the Yankees are 4.34 times less likely to have a perfect game thrown against them than the Indians.
And thus explains the Armando Galarraga "perfect" game. Anyone want to calculate the odds of a no-hitter?
Showing posts with label Cleveland Indians. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cleveland Indians. Show all posts
Major League Part 4
DME was trying to convince people before the start of the season that the Cleveland Indians had a real good shot to win the AL Central. No one believed him then and no one believes him now. Especially Indians analyst Bruce Drennan
The Indians Are A Dark Horse To Win The AL Central
Without a doubt, the weakest division in baseball this year is the AL Central. No single team in that division is particularly strong, nor are any few teams strong enough to make the division a challenge to win. Rather, it will be a test of the least average team. Each of the White Sox (offense), Tigers (defense, pitching depth) and Twins (health, offense beyond Mauer/Morneau) have big questions which keep any from running away with the division.
Given how up for grabs this division is, do not be shocked if the Cleveland Indians make a play for the division title. Check out CHONE projections for the starting nine and then the pitching staff:
C- Carlos Santana, +2.0 WAR (-2 offense, -10 defense, +20 replacement, +12.5 positional)
1B - Russell Branyan, +2.9 WAR (+16 offense, +0 defense, +20 replacement, -7.5 positional)
2B - Luis Valbuena +2.2 WAR (-2 offense, +1 defense, +20 replacement, +2.5 positional)
SS - Asdrubal Cabrera, +3.8 WAR (+13 offense, -2 defense, +20 replacement, +7.5 positional)
3B - Jhonny Peralta, +2.4 WAR (+0 offense, +1 defense, +20 replacement, +2.5 positional)
LF - Matt LaPorta, +2.0 WAR (+14 offense, -7 defense, +20 replacement, -7.5 positional)
CF - Grady Sizemore +5.8 WAR (+28 offense, +7 defense, +20 replacement, +2.5 positional)
RF - Shin-Soo Choo, +3.9 WAR (+24 offense, +2 defense, +20 replacement, -7.5 positional)
DH - Travis Hafner, +2.0 WAR (+17 offense, +20 replacement, -17.5 positional)
That's a strong core of offensive players, with no one projected to be worse than the replacement level player. It also features 3, maybe 4, all-star caliber players and one superstar. The Indians also have young CF prospect Michael Brantley waiting in the wings as their potential 4th OF, despite possessing starter level talent and ability.
Then there is the pitching staff:
SP1-Justin Masterson (4.19 FIP)
SP2-Jake Westbrook (4.38 FIP)
SP3-Aaron Laffey (4.50 FIP)
SP4-Fausto Carmona (4.55 FIP)
SP5-Jeremy Sowers (4.85 FIP)
Clearly, the starting pitching staff is nothing to brag home about, but they are all-around average (could be worse, I suppose) and I happen to be big on Justin Masterson as a breakout candidate for 2010.
The bullpen is much stronger than the starters:
Kerry Wood (3.42 FIP, if he ever pitches)
Tony Sipp (3.64 FIP)
Chris Perez (3.76 FIP)
Jason Grilli (3.77 FIP)
Jamey Wright (3.90 FIP)
Rafael Perez (3.80 FIP)
Jensen Lewis (3.89 FIP)
Jess Todd (4.02 FIP)
Joe Smith (3.89 FIP)
What I see here is a team with a strong offense, a solid bullpen, a quality defense and an average or slightly below average starting rotation. From here lie the pieces to compete now. As Fangraphs notes, several things will need to go right for the Indians to win in 2010. However, those things are all within the realm of possibility.
Additionally, ESPN2 just explained WAR on Baseball Tonight and featured analysis by David Appelman of Fangraphs (as opposed to Steve Phillips), so you know...anything's possible.
Given how up for grabs this division is, do not be shocked if the Cleveland Indians make a play for the division title. Check out CHONE projections for the starting nine and then the pitching staff:
C- Carlos Santana, +2.0 WAR (-2 offense, -10 defense, +20 replacement, +12.5 positional)
1B - Russell Branyan, +2.9 WAR (+16 offense, +0 defense, +20 replacement, -7.5 positional)
2B - Luis Valbuena +2.2 WAR (-2 offense, +1 defense, +20 replacement, +2.5 positional)
SS - Asdrubal Cabrera, +3.8 WAR (+13 offense, -2 defense, +20 replacement, +7.5 positional)
3B - Jhonny Peralta, +2.4 WAR (+0 offense, +1 defense, +20 replacement, +2.5 positional)
LF - Matt LaPorta, +2.0 WAR (+14 offense, -7 defense, +20 replacement, -7.5 positional)
CF - Grady Sizemore +5.8 WAR (+28 offense, +7 defense, +20 replacement, +2.5 positional)
RF - Shin-Soo Choo, +3.9 WAR (+24 offense, +2 defense, +20 replacement, -7.5 positional)
DH - Travis Hafner, +2.0 WAR (+17 offense, +20 replacement, -17.5 positional)
That's a strong core of offensive players, with no one projected to be worse than the replacement level player. It also features 3, maybe 4, all-star caliber players and one superstar. The Indians also have young CF prospect Michael Brantley waiting in the wings as their potential 4th OF, despite possessing starter level talent and ability.
Then there is the pitching staff:
SP1-Justin Masterson (4.19 FIP)
SP2-Jake Westbrook (4.38 FIP)
SP3-Aaron Laffey (4.50 FIP)
SP4-Fausto Carmona (4.55 FIP)
SP5-Jeremy Sowers (4.85 FIP)
Clearly, the starting pitching staff is nothing to brag home about, but they are all-around average (could be worse, I suppose) and I happen to be big on Justin Masterson as a breakout candidate for 2010.
The bullpen is much stronger than the starters:
Kerry Wood (3.42 FIP, if he ever pitches)
Tony Sipp (3.64 FIP)
Chris Perez (3.76 FIP)
Jason Grilli (3.77 FIP)
Jamey Wright (3.90 FIP)
Rafael Perez (3.80 FIP)
Jensen Lewis (3.89 FIP)
Jess Todd (4.02 FIP)
Joe Smith (3.89 FIP)
What I see here is a team with a strong offense, a solid bullpen, a quality defense and an average or slightly below average starting rotation. From here lie the pieces to compete now. As Fangraphs notes, several things will need to go right for the Indians to win in 2010. However, those things are all within the realm of possibility.
Additionally, ESPN2 just explained WAR on Baseball Tonight and featured analysis by David Appelman of Fangraphs (as opposed to Steve Phillips), so you know...anything's possible.
Cleveland Indians
I don't know the exact stat but the Indians were actually one of if not the best baseball team in the second half of the 2008 season. Too bad for the Indians season are 162 and 81 games long. This team has definitely had a great off-season adding underrating 2B and jack of all trades Mark DeRosa and a closer that doesn't blow games in Kerry Wood. Now for the part two years Wood has been good in the bullpen but he's oft injured and old so we'll see how he holds up. I think he'll do just fine but of course have some weeks where he's injured. Overall, he (and you and me probably) are still better than Joe Blow. The Indians are actually a perfect example of how bullpens can change from year to year. In 2007 they had one of the best. Last year, they fell apart. I've seen this bullpen pitch and they do have proven guys so I find it hard that this bullpen can't recover. The Indians also have one of the best and young pitchers in the game right now in Cliff Lee. The only problem is that I don't trust the other four guys behind Lee. According to ESPN.com it is Fausto Carmona, Jeremy Sowers, Carl Pavano (really!?), and Anthony Reyes. Don't even worry about the last three, but Fausto has shown that he could be good. But last year he just walked WAY too many batters, and too high of a WHIP and had such a low ERA that he was bound to blow up sometime. And he probably would have if he hadn't gotten injured. If he can stay healthy and be 2007 dominant, then maybe the Indians can win this division. But then again, if ESPN read this post and I became their new anchor my life would be pretty awesome. IF. The pitching is too suspect for me to declare any post season hopes for Indians but an offense with Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore, Mark DeRosa, and Shin Soo-Choo (look him up, he ended the year very well. I know I had him on my fantasy team) is bound to help you win games. And fuck Travis Hafner, BTW. I read an ESPN article saying Hafner will help this offense. Yeah and maybe Bonds didn't do steroids. Garko is fine and I guess for the bottom of an order who could do worse than what the Indians have. An offense and Cliff Lee helped this team win 81 games last year. If the bullpen improves then this team can win more, but as good of an off season that the Indians had, I don't think they did enough to win the division again. This team seems opposite of the Twins, good offense and mediocre pitching (actually, I think this rotation sucks but…) and I'll take pitching over hitting any day of the week.
Projection position in division: 2nd
Players to draft:
-Cliff Lee: Don't expect 2008 numbers at all but still a great pitcher
-Grady Sizemore: I'm not going to waste my breath, if you have a late first round pick, take him
-Victor Martinez: A top tier catcher that will get RBI, R, and HR
-Mark DeRosa: One of the most valuable back ups because he can essentially play all positions and is always undervalues every single year. He'll put up good numbers
-Kerry Wood: He's worth taking as you're second closer only because of the injury risk. Don't take him as your #1 closer
Players to avoid:
-Fausto Carmona: He's going to suck next year and will blow up in your face if you draft him
-Travis Hafner: His projected stat line from BP: .248 avg/ 13 HR/ 52 RBI/ 1 SB/ 48 R. Do you really want this player? He's only projected to get 10 more R than HR!
