According to Cot's Contracts, the Yankees had a 2010 Opening Day payroll of $213,359,389.00, which has only increased since (the Bronx Bombers have recently acquired overpaid veterans Kerry Wood and Lance Berkman).
Even at at $213.4 million, The Yankees' 2010 payroll is higher than the GDP of two countries the Republic of Kiribati and São Tomé and Príncipe (per Wikipedia).
At least they can't buy Tonga anymore.
RIP George Steinbrenner.
Showing posts with label New York Yankees. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New York Yankees. Show all posts
What Are The Odds That The White Sox Throw A Perfect Game Today Against The Indians? (06/05/2010)
Don Leypoldt over at The Hardball Times wrote an interesting article about the odds of throwing a perfect game. According to his estimates, the chances of three perfectos occurring in one month is approximately 1 in 2,000,000. Leypoldt's article and analysis inspired me to look at the odds of a perfect game occurring today.
On Base Percentage (OBP) is the likelihood of getting on-base. Outs Percentage (OP), calculated as 1-OBP, is the chance that an out is made. I wanted to take this and look at the possibility of the Cubs throwing a perfect game today, but the variability of pitchers hitting (and the double switch) makes lineup prediction for a whole game more volatile in the NL than AL. So, instead, I will look at the White Sox's opponent, the Cleveland Indians, and assume that there are no late-inning defensive replacements which will occur and that the OPs to date represent their true OBP ability (no sample size/random noise issues).
The Sizemore-less Indians lineup (.324 team OBP), in terms of OP, is as follows:
C - Lou Marson = .727
1B - Russell Branyan = .683
2B - Luis Valbuena = .706
SS - Jason Donald = .714
3B - Jhonny Peralta = .671
RF - Shin-Soo Choo = .620
CF - Austin Kearns = .629
LF - Shelly Duncan = .579
DH - Travis Hafner = .639
The product of each Indian's OP cubed yields a neutral context perfect game probability (or improbability) of 0.00001423%.
By contrast, the Yankees have a team OBP of .366 and their starting lineup's OP, as currently situated, looks like this:
C - Frank Cervelli = .625
1B - Mark Teixeira = .664
2B - Robinson Cano = .593
SS - Derek Jeter = .648
3B - Alex Rodriguez = .626
RF - Nick Swisher = .599
CF - Curtis Granderson = .658
LF - Brett Gardner = .622
DH - Jorge Posada = .607
The product of each Yankee's OP cubed yields a neutral context perfect game probability (or extreme improbability) of 0.00000328%. That means that, as currently situated, the Yankees are 4.34 times less likely to have a perfect game thrown against them than the Indians.
And thus explains the Armando Galarraga "perfect" game. Anyone want to calculate the odds of a no-hitter?
On Base Percentage (OBP) is the likelihood of getting on-base. Outs Percentage (OP), calculated as 1-OBP, is the chance that an out is made. I wanted to take this and look at the possibility of the Cubs throwing a perfect game today, but the variability of pitchers hitting (and the double switch) makes lineup prediction for a whole game more volatile in the NL than AL. So, instead, I will look at the White Sox's opponent, the Cleveland Indians, and assume that there are no late-inning defensive replacements which will occur and that the OPs to date represent their true OBP ability (no sample size/random noise issues).
The Sizemore-less Indians lineup (.324 team OBP), in terms of OP, is as follows:
C - Lou Marson = .727
1B - Russell Branyan = .683
2B - Luis Valbuena = .706
SS - Jason Donald = .714
3B - Jhonny Peralta = .671
RF - Shin-Soo Choo = .620
CF - Austin Kearns = .629
LF - Shelly Duncan = .579
DH - Travis Hafner = .639
The product of each Indian's OP cubed yields a neutral context perfect game probability (or improbability) of 0.00001423%.
By contrast, the Yankees have a team OBP of .366 and their starting lineup's OP, as currently situated, looks like this:
C - Frank Cervelli = .625
1B - Mark Teixeira = .664
2B - Robinson Cano = .593
SS - Derek Jeter = .648
3B - Alex Rodriguez = .626
RF - Nick Swisher = .599
CF - Curtis Granderson = .658
LF - Brett Gardner = .622
DH - Jorge Posada = .607
The product of each Yankee's OP cubed yields a neutral context perfect game probability (or extreme improbability) of 0.00000328%. That means that, as currently situated, the Yankees are 4.34 times less likely to have a perfect game thrown against them than the Indians.
And thus explains the Armando Galarraga "perfect" game. Anyone want to calculate the odds of a no-hitter?
Tigers-Yankees-Diamondbacks Blockbuster Trade
According to MLBTradeRumors, a blockbuster trade has been completed between the Tigers, Yankees, and Diamondbacks. Each team is rumored to get the following players:
Tigers:
The Tigers
The Tigers by far got the best end of this deal. Seeking to shed payroll, fill in some bullpen holes, and acquire cheap, young talent, the Tigers traded away one of the games best value players (Granderson) who plays a mean CF in terms of both offense and defense, in addition to a soon-to-be 27 year old hard-throwing right-handed SP (Jackson) who over-performed last year and generally has below average, but improving control, no strikeout talent and two years left until he reaches free agency. In exchange, the Tigers received four quality players and met each of their goals. The prize of the Tigers' acquisition was Max Scherzer, a soon-to-be 26 year old, hard-throwing right-handed SP (Scherzer) with high strikeout talent, above-average control and three, possibly four, more years of team control before he becomes arbitration eligible. If Scherzer does not qualify for super-two status next offseason, the Tigers will end up paying a better-than-Jackson SP less than $1 million, while Jackson probably makes at least $10 million over that same time frame. In addition to Scherzer, the Tigers also acquired two relievers: Phil Coke, a solid and above average RP who limited the walks and struck out more batters than the league average while playing in the AL East last year, from the Yankees and Daniel Schlereth, a closer-of-the-future kind of RP with great stuff and questionable control, from the Diamondbacks. Considering that Lyons and Rodney are free agents, this gives the team more leverage when dealing with Brandon Lyon and a viable set of cheap, late-inning relievers for the Tigers. The Tigers also got Austin Jackson, one of the Yankee's top prospects, who profiles as a league-average (or better) hitting CF with great speed and range to replace Granderson. At just 22 years old, Jackson has a lot of upside and 6 years of major league control left to his name.
Conclusion: The Tigers accomplished everyone of their team's goals with this trade. They shed payroll, replaced semi-expensive players with cheap replacements, filled bullpen holes and upgraded their starting rotation.
The Yankees
The Yankees also made out big with this trade. With Johnny Damon departing to free agency and 4th OFs Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner and not-quite-ready CF prospect Austin Jackson left to fill both center and left fields, the Yankees were in search of one, if not two, outfielders. Although you can never discount the Yankees getting involved in the Matt Holliday/Jason Bay sweepstakes, this helps the team fill up centerfield at a great value and it gives the team a lot more negotiating leverage against Scott Boras and his clients (Damon, Holliday). Granderson is without a doubt an all around upgrade over the aging and expensive Damon and if the Yankees can clobber everyone on their way to a world series title with Damon in left and Cabrera/Gardner, I see no reason why they can't do it with Granderson in center and Cabrera/Gardner in left. With Granderson, the Yankees acquired a not-cheap, but not-expensive player with some of the best all around tools in the game (walks, hits for power, quality range, average arm) and probably have plenty of money left over -- especially if they let Damon walk -- to make another big free agency splash while keeping the payroll under the 2008 mark. And what did it cost them? None of their core young talent (Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Mike Dunn, or Jesus Montero). Just a slightly above average, but still useful reliever (Phil Coke) and a starting pitcher with no room on the roster and more hype than true talent (Ian Kennedy, aka "the next Greg Maddux").
Conclusion: The Yankees got what they needed -- a quality outfielder and leverage in the free agency market -- at a great value in terms of both $ cost and players traded, so they are sure to be great for online betting.
The Diamondbacks
Oh boy, where to begin. The Diamondbacks got ripped off. They traded away a young, cheap ace pitcher and high talent potential closer of the future and bought high on a hard-throwing (but improving) SP (Jackson) who over-performed last season and has at least two less years of team control to his name in addition to a brand name minor leaguer with limited "success" at any level of play since 2007. For a guy who is supposed to be "the next Greg Maddux, he needs to start limiting the walks (his career major-league equivalent BB/9 is 3.95). Kennedy is still relatively young (soon-to-be 26) and has been getting better at the strikeouts in AAA, but he's entering his "prime years" and has yet to show any significant major league success.
Conclusion: Kennedy may provide the Diamondbacks with a quality arm, but the risk inherent in him putting it all together (in addition to the probable regression from Jackson, a pitcher who outperformed his peripherals last year and also has a four year trend of increasing FB tendencies) makes trading away a cheap stud like Scherzer and high ceiling reliever like Schlereth an unwise gamble.
____
All in all, it's not like anyone expected the Diamondbacks to contend in 2010 anyways. Perhaps the team, realizing this, decided to take the long-term risk with Kennedy (who the Yankees had no room for), while gaining another arm (Jackson), who, in addition to Webb, the team can unload for some quality prospects to a contender come July. The Tigers and Yankees won big on this deal and the Diamondbacks took on a whole lot of unnecessary risk (and some salary), to which I call them the unequivocal losers of the deal.
Tigers:
- SP Max Scherzer
- RP Daniel Schlereth
- RP Phil Coke
- CF Austin Jackson
- CF Curtis Granderson
- SP Edwin Jackson
- SP Ian Kennedy
The Tigers
The Tigers by far got the best end of this deal. Seeking to shed payroll, fill in some bullpen holes, and acquire cheap, young talent, the Tigers traded away one of the games best value players (Granderson) who plays a mean CF in terms of both offense and defense, in addition to a soon-to-be 27 year old hard-throwing right-handed SP (Jackson) who over-performed last year and generally has below average, but improving control, no strikeout talent and two years left until he reaches free agency. In exchange, the Tigers received four quality players and met each of their goals. The prize of the Tigers' acquisition was Max Scherzer, a soon-to-be 26 year old, hard-throwing right-handed SP (Scherzer) with high strikeout talent, above-average control and three, possibly four, more years of team control before he becomes arbitration eligible. If Scherzer does not qualify for super-two status next offseason, the Tigers will end up paying a better-than-Jackson SP less than $1 million, while Jackson probably makes at least $10 million over that same time frame. In addition to Scherzer, the Tigers also acquired two relievers: Phil Coke, a solid and above average RP who limited the walks and struck out more batters than the league average while playing in the AL East last year, from the Yankees and Daniel Schlereth, a closer-of-the-future kind of RP with great stuff and questionable control, from the Diamondbacks. Considering that Lyons and Rodney are free agents, this gives the team more leverage when dealing with Brandon Lyon and a viable set of cheap, late-inning relievers for the Tigers. The Tigers also got Austin Jackson, one of the Yankee's top prospects, who profiles as a league-average (or better) hitting CF with great speed and range to replace Granderson. At just 22 years old, Jackson has a lot of upside and 6 years of major league control left to his name.
Conclusion: The Tigers accomplished everyone of their team's goals with this trade. They shed payroll, replaced semi-expensive players with cheap replacements, filled bullpen holes and upgraded their starting rotation.
The Yankees
The Yankees also made out big with this trade. With Johnny Damon departing to free agency and 4th OFs Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner and not-quite-ready CF prospect Austin Jackson left to fill both center and left fields, the Yankees were in search of one, if not two, outfielders. Although you can never discount the Yankees getting involved in the Matt Holliday/Jason Bay sweepstakes, this helps the team fill up centerfield at a great value and it gives the team a lot more negotiating leverage against Scott Boras and his clients (Damon, Holliday). Granderson is without a doubt an all around upgrade over the aging and expensive Damon and if the Yankees can clobber everyone on their way to a world series title with Damon in left and Cabrera/Gardner, I see no reason why they can't do it with Granderson in center and Cabrera/Gardner in left. With Granderson, the Yankees acquired a not-cheap, but not-expensive player with some of the best all around tools in the game (walks, hits for power, quality range, average arm) and probably have plenty of money left over -- especially if they let Damon walk -- to make another big free agency splash while keeping the payroll under the 2008 mark. And what did it cost them? None of their core young talent (Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Mike Dunn, or Jesus Montero). Just a slightly above average, but still useful reliever (Phil Coke) and a starting pitcher with no room on the roster and more hype than true talent (Ian Kennedy, aka "the next Greg Maddux").
Conclusion: The Yankees got what they needed -- a quality outfielder and leverage in the free agency market -- at a great value in terms of both $ cost and players traded, so they are sure to be great for online betting.
The Diamondbacks
Oh boy, where to begin. The Diamondbacks got ripped off. They traded away a young, cheap ace pitcher and high talent potential closer of the future and bought high on a hard-throwing (but improving) SP (Jackson) who over-performed last season and has at least two less years of team control to his name in addition to a brand name minor leaguer with limited "success" at any level of play since 2007. For a guy who is supposed to be "the next Greg Maddux, he needs to start limiting the walks (his career major-league equivalent BB/9 is 3.95). Kennedy is still relatively young (soon-to-be 26) and has been getting better at the strikeouts in AAA, but he's entering his "prime years" and has yet to show any significant major league success.
Conclusion: Kennedy may provide the Diamondbacks with a quality arm, but the risk inherent in him putting it all together (in addition to the probable regression from Jackson, a pitcher who outperformed his peripherals last year and also has a four year trend of increasing FB tendencies) makes trading away a cheap stud like Scherzer and high ceiling reliever like Schlereth an unwise gamble.
____
All in all, it's not like anyone expected the Diamondbacks to contend in 2010 anyways. Perhaps the team, realizing this, decided to take the long-term risk with Kennedy (who the Yankees had no room for), while gaining another arm (Jackson), who, in addition to Webb, the team can unload for some quality prospects to a contender come July. The Tigers and Yankees won big on this deal and the Diamondbacks took on a whole lot of unnecessary risk (and some salary), to which I call them the unequivocal losers of the deal.
The Shift that gave the Series away
In game 4 of the World Series on Sunday I saw something new that I have never seen happen in baseball before. In the ninth inning with the game tied at 4 Brad Lidge was pitching to Mark Teixeira with Johnny Damon on first base. Teixeira was batting from the left side so the Phillies had the shift on. Johnny Damon decided to steal second and slide in easily. Then he popped up and ran to third base. He stole two bases on the same play without an error, rundown or anything else you ordinary see happen. With the shift being on, the third basemen was nowhere near it so even though a Philly had the ball and was ready to throw it to someone, there was no one. The pitcher Lidge should have been covering because he was the only option, but he was obviously not told too and didn’t think of it in time. Charlie Manuel should have reviewed that, but I have never seen that happen before with a shift on. So Damon ended up getting a free base which was the go ahead run at the time. The Yankees ended up scoring more runs, but that opened the flood gates. Now it will be hard for them to come back being down in the series 3-1.
I have never see a player steal two bases with the shit on before. Has anyone ever seen that? I am specifically asking you “The 'Bright' One”.
I have never see a player steal two bases with the shit on before. Has anyone ever seen that? I am specifically asking you “The 'Bright' One”.
Why Countries Hate America (And Probably The Yankees too)
Daniel Tosh once said that the reason countries hate America is because of reality TV. Specifically the show Survivor, where someone gets paid $1,000,000 to survive in places where people actually live. I can't say I disagree.
However, there is but another reason for countries to hate America -- perhaps specifically the New York Yankees. As enumerated, almost in passing, in the last paragraph of David Golebiewski's most recent article on Fangraphs, this past off season, the New York "Yankees spent more than the gross domestic product of Tonga."
No seriously.
Between the total allocated resources spent on the free agent signings of Andy Pettite ($5.5 M) and Sergio Mitre ($1.25) (oh, and Mark Teixeira ($180 M), C.C. Sabathia ($161 M) and A.J. Burnett ($82.5 M) too, I suppose), the New York Yankees of New York spent approximately $430 million. As Buster Olney points out, the Yankees allocated $441 million on player acquisitions this offseason, when the rest of the AL, combined, spent $176.28 million.
Tonga, by contrast, whose chief export is not home runs, has a GDP of $258 million.
It's a good thing that baseball is recession proof, right Cubsfan4ever? Actually, there's a good piece about how the Yankees are good for the economy that you can read here.
God Bless America.
However, there is but another reason for countries to hate America -- perhaps specifically the New York Yankees. As enumerated, almost in passing, in the last paragraph of David Golebiewski's most recent article on Fangraphs, this past off season, the New York "Yankees spent more than the gross domestic product of Tonga."
No seriously.
Between the total allocated resources spent on the free agent signings of Andy Pettite ($5.5 M) and Sergio Mitre ($1.25) (oh, and Mark Teixeira ($180 M), C.C. Sabathia ($161 M) and A.J. Burnett ($82.5 M) too, I suppose), the New York Yankees of New York spent approximately $430 million. As Buster Olney points out, the Yankees allocated $441 million on player acquisitions this offseason, when the rest of the AL, combined, spent $176.28 million.
Tonga, by contrast, whose chief export is not home runs, has a GDP of $258 million.
It's a good thing that baseball is recession proof, right Cubsfan4ever? Actually, there's a good piece about how the Yankees are good for the economy that you can read here.
God Bless America.
The New York Yankees
In my sincerest opinion, the most over hyped team for the 2009 season is the New York Yankees. Sure, they acquired two of the top pitchers in the game and one of the best all around first basemen, but you have to look at the marginal differences between this year’s team and last year’s to determine if they really made any substantial upgrades. I point to this post that I made a few months back, in which I compared the value of the pieces the Yankees brought in against the pieces they let go. Nothing really substantial changed overall -- the Yankees of course HAD to bring players like Teixeira and CC in to replace the production of ex-Yankees like Mussina and Abreu.
Accordingly, the key pieces to the Yankees potential for success in 2009 will depend upon getting productive years from guys who were not productive in 2008. Defensively -- and I say this term lightly, as the defense of the Yankees outside of A-Rod and Teixeira is laughably poor -- this means the pitching staff's health does not force the Yankees to pitch Carl Pavano-type guys for a majority of their innings. This means a fully recovered Chien-Ming Wang, the groundballing third co-ace on the Yankee’s staff. This means that Phil Hughes, who has unfairly been getting AAAA labels thrown at him with only 100 or so major league innings to his name, can stay healthy and effective take over the role of the long game reliever/#6 guy/guy who will take Joba's place in the rotation when he gets moved back to the bullpen. It also means that Joba is not overextended by the Yankees (160 IP limit? Just follow the Verducci Rule).
Offensively, the Yankees are going to need a bounce back from Robinson Cano, whose entire season had luck conspire against him. We may not see a .340 average or 20 home runs from the guy again, but a .300 clip with a league-average .340 OBP and 15 home runs to boot is very possible -- and very necessary -- from this very average defender.
As I alluded to earleir, the big problem for the Yankees in 2009 is going to be defense (minus Mark Teixeira, A-Rod and Xavier Nady, provided they play him in either corner). The rest of the team is largely comprised of unathletic, offense compensating guys like Nick Swisher, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada. While across 162 games, one can replaces poor defense with good offense, Baseball Prospectus has show than in small sample size situations against high caliber teams (aka the playoffs), defense is much more correlated to wins than offense. This means the statistical tides of fate are working against the Yankees, much like they do against the A’s, to make it past the early rounds of the playoffs -- that is, if they can even get there.
To sum this all in short, the Yankees have a great set of offensive players at their disposal, but a lot of offensive power is going to be canceled out by defensive inefficiency. Guys like Sabathia and Burnett, if healthy, are going to provide the Yankees with a lot of quality innings, but guys like Wang, who rely a lot more on routine defense to be effective, may be hurt. The Yankees may have spent almost half a billion dollars this off season, but thanks to players going their separate ways or retiring, a lot of that money was just spent to replace rather than improve and it’s going to be a steep uphill climb to compete with the Rays and Red Sox in 2009 -- no matter what ESPN thinks.
PLAYERS TO DRAFT:
o Derek Jeter - As overrated as everyone may think Derek Jeter is, he might be the most underrated player going into the 2009 fantasy season. Sure, his defensive and offensive output have been on a rapid decline since 2006, but there is much to like about Jeter's 2009 value. A lot of Jeter's poor performance could be attributed to being drilled on the hand by Daniel Cabrera late May. Prior to that incident, Jeter was hitting a respectable .314. Furthermore, in the final two months, Jeter hit .344. AVG may be an incredibly overrated asset in the larger picture of how it contributes to a team's ability to win, but it is still a skill that is largely supported by a player's foot speed and ability to hit line drives. Jeter's career .360 BABIP is no fluke. Obviously, expecting a .360 BABIP from a 35 year old SS on the back end of his career is unreasonable, but
all but one projection system over on fangraphs thinks that a .345+ BABIP is very possible. As an obsessive mock drafter, I routinely see Jeter -- when not reached for by a moronic Yankee's fan who knows shit about baseball (let alone fantasy) in the second round -- go as late as rounds 12 and 13. Now that Jeter is hitting directly in front of a healthy A-Rod and newly minted Yankee Mark Teixeira, you should expect some serious rebound. 120 Rs, .300+ AVG and double digit HR/SBs (12/12 over/under?) totals are all realistic. Shortstop is a notoriously useless and overrated position outside the top tier (HanRam, Reyes) and Jeter's offensive potential, combined with his undervalued draft position, make him one of the most underrated players going into 2009. Simply put, if there's any gas left in the tank, 2009 will be one of the best opportunities for Jeter to capitalize upon it.
o Chien-Ming Wang - People just plan forget about Wang. I've seen him drafted as late as round 17 in mocks on ESPN and MockDraftCentral. If healthy, there is no reason he can't again get you 19 Ws, a sub 4 ERA and a decent WHIP. Just make sure you balance out his K-lessness somehow.
o Robinson Cano - He won't hit 25 HRs or .342, but his terrible 2008 campaign will make him an undervalued .300 hitting asset w/ 15+ HR power and a legit chance at racking up 85+ RBIs/Rs. Think of him as a heavily discounted Pedroia knock-off.
o Xavier Nady - The Mark DeRosa of the outfield (above average utility man turned quality starter). 25 HRs, a quality AVG and many RBIs very possible batting behind guys like A-Rod and Teixeira. Very underrated.
o A-Rod, Teixeira, Damon - No explanation necessary, expect more RBIs/Runs.
OVERRATED
o CC Sabatihia - Between tossing 513+ IP over the past two seasons, pitching five consecutive starts on three days rest LATE in the season, throwing 7 complete games in the final two months of the season and having been the second most abused pitcher -- his 111,844 Pitcher Abuse Point rating was 30% higher than the next most abused player -- in all of baseball last year, I'll let someone else waste their second and third round picks on CC. I don't care if he does have high W, high K, low ERA upside; it's just not worth the risk of seeing a top draft waste away for extended periods on the DL. Remember how ineffective CC was in the beginning of 2008, after having been only been the 26th most abused pitcher in 2007? Quick draft strategy: minimize the risk with your early draft picks and maximize it with your later ones.
o AJ Burnett - He's only healthy in contract years. Nuff said.
o Joba Chamberlain - The kid has great stuff, but his durability and longevity are a clear question. The Yankees view Joba as their future ace, so you shouldn't expect him to eclipse 160 IP during the regular season. Is two-thirds or three-fourths season really worth a top 10 pick?
o Mariano Rivera - Don't get me wrong; Mo Rivers has amazing stuff, but why overpay for closers (especially high brand name ones like Mo) when you can get a Bobby Jenks much later? How many more SV ops do you think Mo will get over, say, Matt Lindstrom? If anything, you should draft the closers from shitty teams because all of their wins will be save opportunities.
KEEP AN EYE ON...
o Phil Hughes - With only 106 IP to his major league name, Phil Hughes was a big loser in the Andy Pettite deal. Hughes has the stuff that dreams are made of -- his high K and low BB rates gave him a minor league FIP in the mid-2's. Injuries aside, Hughes just needs time to hone his stuff and adjust to the major league level. When that happens...well, you might just wish you picked him off waivers.
Accordingly, the key pieces to the Yankees potential for success in 2009 will depend upon getting productive years from guys who were not productive in 2008. Defensively -- and I say this term lightly, as the defense of the Yankees outside of A-Rod and Teixeira is laughably poor -- this means the pitching staff's health does not force the Yankees to pitch Carl Pavano-type guys for a majority of their innings. This means a fully recovered Chien-Ming Wang, the groundballing third co-ace on the Yankee’s staff. This means that Phil Hughes, who has unfairly been getting AAAA labels thrown at him with only 100 or so major league innings to his name, can stay healthy and effective take over the role of the long game reliever/#6 guy/guy who will take Joba's place in the rotation when he gets moved back to the bullpen. It also means that Joba is not overextended by the Yankees (160 IP limit? Just follow the Verducci Rule).
Offensively, the Yankees are going to need a bounce back from Robinson Cano, whose entire season had luck conspire against him. We may not see a .340 average or 20 home runs from the guy again, but a .300 clip with a league-average .340 OBP and 15 home runs to boot is very possible -- and very necessary -- from this very average defender.
As I alluded to earleir, the big problem for the Yankees in 2009 is going to be defense (minus Mark Teixeira, A-Rod and Xavier Nady, provided they play him in either corner). The rest of the team is largely comprised of unathletic, offense compensating guys like Nick Swisher, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada. While across 162 games, one can replaces poor defense with good offense, Baseball Prospectus has show than in small sample size situations against high caliber teams (aka the playoffs), defense is much more correlated to wins than offense. This means the statistical tides of fate are working against the Yankees, much like they do against the A’s, to make it past the early rounds of the playoffs -- that is, if they can even get there.
To sum this all in short, the Yankees have a great set of offensive players at their disposal, but a lot of offensive power is going to be canceled out by defensive inefficiency. Guys like Sabathia and Burnett, if healthy, are going to provide the Yankees with a lot of quality innings, but guys like Wang, who rely a lot more on routine defense to be effective, may be hurt. The Yankees may have spent almost half a billion dollars this off season, but thanks to players going their separate ways or retiring, a lot of that money was just spent to replace rather than improve and it’s going to be a steep uphill climb to compete with the Rays and Red Sox in 2009 -- no matter what ESPN thinks.
PLAYERS TO DRAFT:
o Derek Jeter - As overrated as everyone may think Derek Jeter is, he might be the most underrated player going into the 2009 fantasy season. Sure, his defensive and offensive output have been on a rapid decline since 2006, but there is much to like about Jeter's 2009 value. A lot of Jeter's poor performance could be attributed to being drilled on the hand by Daniel Cabrera late May. Prior to that incident, Jeter was hitting a respectable .314. Furthermore, in the final two months, Jeter hit .344. AVG may be an incredibly overrated asset in the larger picture of how it contributes to a team's ability to win, but it is still a skill that is largely supported by a player's foot speed and ability to hit line drives. Jeter's career .360 BABIP is no fluke. Obviously, expecting a .360 BABIP from a 35 year old SS on the back end of his career is unreasonable, but
all but one projection system over on fangraphs thinks that a .345+ BABIP is very possible. As an obsessive mock drafter, I routinely see Jeter -- when not reached for by a moronic Yankee's fan who knows shit about baseball (let alone fantasy) in the second round -- go as late as rounds 12 and 13. Now that Jeter is hitting directly in front of a healthy A-Rod and newly minted Yankee Mark Teixeira, you should expect some serious rebound. 120 Rs, .300+ AVG and double digit HR/SBs (12/12 over/under?) totals are all realistic. Shortstop is a notoriously useless and overrated position outside the top tier (HanRam, Reyes) and Jeter's offensive potential, combined with his undervalued draft position, make him one of the most underrated players going into 2009. Simply put, if there's any gas left in the tank, 2009 will be one of the best opportunities for Jeter to capitalize upon it.
o Chien-Ming Wang - People just plan forget about Wang. I've seen him drafted as late as round 17 in mocks on ESPN and MockDraftCentral. If healthy, there is no reason he can't again get you 19 Ws, a sub 4 ERA and a decent WHIP. Just make sure you balance out his K-lessness somehow.
o Robinson Cano - He won't hit 25 HRs or .342, but his terrible 2008 campaign will make him an undervalued .300 hitting asset w/ 15+ HR power and a legit chance at racking up 85+ RBIs/Rs. Think of him as a heavily discounted Pedroia knock-off.
o Xavier Nady - The Mark DeRosa of the outfield (above average utility man turned quality starter). 25 HRs, a quality AVG and many RBIs very possible batting behind guys like A-Rod and Teixeira. Very underrated.
o A-Rod, Teixeira, Damon - No explanation necessary, expect more RBIs/Runs.
OVERRATED
o CC Sabatihia - Between tossing 513+ IP over the past two seasons, pitching five consecutive starts on three days rest LATE in the season, throwing 7 complete games in the final two months of the season and having been the second most abused pitcher -- his 111,844 Pitcher Abuse Point rating was 30% higher than the next most abused player -- in all of baseball last year, I'll let someone else waste their second and third round picks on CC. I don't care if he does have high W, high K, low ERA upside; it's just not worth the risk of seeing a top draft waste away for extended periods on the DL. Remember how ineffective CC was in the beginning of 2008, after having been only been the 26th most abused pitcher in 2007? Quick draft strategy: minimize the risk with your early draft picks and maximize it with your later ones.
o AJ Burnett - He's only healthy in contract years. Nuff said.
o Joba Chamberlain - The kid has great stuff, but his durability and longevity are a clear question. The Yankees view Joba as their future ace, so you shouldn't expect him to eclipse 160 IP during the regular season. Is two-thirds or three-fourths season really worth a top 10 pick?
o Mariano Rivera - Don't get me wrong; Mo Rivers has amazing stuff, but why overpay for closers (especially high brand name ones like Mo) when you can get a Bobby Jenks much later? How many more SV ops do you think Mo will get over, say, Matt Lindstrom? If anything, you should draft the closers from shitty teams because all of their wins will be save opportunities.
KEEP AN EYE ON...
o Phil Hughes - With only 106 IP to his major league name, Phil Hughes was a big loser in the Andy Pettite deal. Hughes has the stuff that dreams are made of -- his high K and low BB rates gave him a minor league FIP in the mid-2's. Injuries aside, Hughes just needs time to hone his stuff and adjust to the major league level. When that happens...well, you might just wish you picked him off waivers.
The Yankees HAVE Improved. Shit.
This post is in relation to David "MVP" Eckstein's December 24th, 2008 post entitled "The 2008 Yankees" and his viewpoint on this in posts after this blog. His contention is that the free-agent signings the Yankees now have do not improve the team all that much from the departures the team had.
First point: Mark Tiexeira replacing Jason Giambi. Looking the the offensive numbers one sees that actually this is not the biggest improvement. Last year, Giambi had this stat line: .373/.502/.875 with 32 HRs. Tex's stat line is predicted to be this: .404/.564/ .969 with with 39 HRs. While there is a difference between the HR and OBS, in reality, this disparity is not as big as public perception make it out to be. But here's the thing, Tex is a gold glove defender and is only like 29 years old. Giambi was an old fuck who couldn't move that well. So the Yankees do get an improvement both offensively and defensively which could tack on at least one more win to their 88/89 win season last year.
Second point: Nick Swisher replaced Bobby Abreu. This is a valid point. Bobby Abreu walked a shit ton (.371 OBS last year) and has decent power and still probably better at walking, hitting for power, and defense. So I'll give Ecksetin that here is not an improvement. But in the Yankees defense, it was never meant to be and they could have done a lot worse.
Third Point: AJ Burnett replaces Mike Mussina. Last year, Mussina had one of his best years getting 20 wins, having a 3.74 ERA, and having a 4.84 K/BB ratio. This is getting replaced with this projected stat line: 15 wins, 3.98 ERA, and 2.71 K/BB with about 10 less IP. Again, this is not an improvement and again, another valid point. But here's the thing, Mussina was the ace of the staff last year and Burnett's only the 2nd guy in the rotation and he's NOT the ace.
Fourth Point: CC Sabathia was worked too hard during the end of the year and this will manifest itself with poor performance while Sabathia is in pinstripes. Again, I can take this as a valid point considering how shitty did Sabathia in like his first maybe 7 starts? I don't but in the beginning he did shit. However, after this, he was amazing. Sabathia pitched well before he went to Milwaukee and amazing once he got there. There's no reason that the vast majority of the season that CC can't be great. Here's his projected stat line: 19 wins, 3.33 ERA, 231 K, 4.44 K/BB ratio, and in 243 innings. You're gonna tell me that's not an improvement for a team?
MY REBUTTAL
The thing that Eckstein overlooks is that the improvements of this team come from more than just off-season free agent signings, they come internally as well. He's other areas where the Yankees with improve.
Xavier Nady: This guy is a damn fine baseball player and a player that helps with their offensive woes. In recent years with Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon were the outfield, the Yanks didn't really have an outfield because these players were oft injured. With Nady (and Swisher) the Yankees finally have depth and talent in the outfield. And this year, Nady will be on the team for an entire year to help this club instead of just half of one.
A-Rod: Remember, this is from a purely objective, on-the-field basis. Last year, A Rod had a down here (if that's possible for him considering he was 2nd in OPS in the AL last year). And this year, he's expected to "rebound". He is projected to get 44 HRs as opposed to his 35 last year and have an OPS 17 points higher than it was last year. His performance should improve thus helping this offense.
Chien-Ming Wang: Wang only pitched 95 innings last year. This was because of a freak injury when Wang was rounding home after playing some NL team. Wang should log significant innings this year and there's no reason to think he can't pitch throughout a 162 game season, something he didn't do last year.
Joba Chamberlian: This year he'll be in the rotation all year. Last year, he started off in the bullpen, then went down to AAA, then was in the starting rotation, and then back in the bullpen. This year, he'll be in the rotation. For sure. Chamberlian needed AAA help and some experience to fully get into the groove of being a full time starter, and watching him last year, he seemed to get it. With a year under his belt and seemingly developed, Chamberlian should be much better than he was last year.
A rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Chamberlian and Pettitte is still better than a 2008 rotation that included Mussina, Pettitte, Darrell Rasner with Chamberlian, Wang, Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, and Carl Pavano getting significant starting time as well.
Now I'm not saying in this post that the Yankees will make the playoffs or anything like that. I am however saying that David "MVP" Eckstein is, hmmm how to word this nicely wrong?, to think the Yankees can't or won't be better than their 2008 counterparts.
First point: Mark Tiexeira replacing Jason Giambi. Looking the the offensive numbers one sees that actually this is not the biggest improvement. Last year, Giambi had this stat line: .373/.502/.875 with 32 HRs. Tex's stat line is predicted to be this: .404/.564/ .969 with with 39 HRs. While there is a difference between the HR and OBS, in reality, this disparity is not as big as public perception make it out to be. But here's the thing, Tex is a gold glove defender and is only like 29 years old. Giambi was an old fuck who couldn't move that well. So the Yankees do get an improvement both offensively and defensively which could tack on at least one more win to their 88/89 win season last year.
Second point: Nick Swisher replaced Bobby Abreu. This is a valid point. Bobby Abreu walked a shit ton (.371 OBS last year) and has decent power and still probably better at walking, hitting for power, and defense. So I'll give Ecksetin that here is not an improvement. But in the Yankees defense, it was never meant to be and they could have done a lot worse.
Third Point: AJ Burnett replaces Mike Mussina. Last year, Mussina had one of his best years getting 20 wins, having a 3.74 ERA, and having a 4.84 K/BB ratio. This is getting replaced with this projected stat line: 15 wins, 3.98 ERA, and 2.71 K/BB with about 10 less IP. Again, this is not an improvement and again, another valid point. But here's the thing, Mussina was the ace of the staff last year and Burnett's only the 2nd guy in the rotation and he's NOT the ace.
Fourth Point: CC Sabathia was worked too hard during the end of the year and this will manifest itself with poor performance while Sabathia is in pinstripes. Again, I can take this as a valid point considering how shitty did Sabathia in like his first maybe 7 starts? I don't but in the beginning he did shit. However, after this, he was amazing. Sabathia pitched well before he went to Milwaukee and amazing once he got there. There's no reason that the vast majority of the season that CC can't be great. Here's his projected stat line: 19 wins, 3.33 ERA, 231 K, 4.44 K/BB ratio, and in 243 innings. You're gonna tell me that's not an improvement for a team?
MY REBUTTAL
The thing that Eckstein overlooks is that the improvements of this team come from more than just off-season free agent signings, they come internally as well. He's other areas where the Yankees with improve.
Xavier Nady: This guy is a damn fine baseball player and a player that helps with their offensive woes. In recent years with Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon were the outfield, the Yanks didn't really have an outfield because these players were oft injured. With Nady (and Swisher) the Yankees finally have depth and talent in the outfield. And this year, Nady will be on the team for an entire year to help this club instead of just half of one.
A-Rod: Remember, this is from a purely objective, on-the-field basis. Last year, A Rod had a down here (if that's possible for him considering he was 2nd in OPS in the AL last year). And this year, he's expected to "rebound". He is projected to get 44 HRs as opposed to his 35 last year and have an OPS 17 points higher than it was last year. His performance should improve thus helping this offense.
Chien-Ming Wang: Wang only pitched 95 innings last year. This was because of a freak injury when Wang was rounding home after playing some NL team. Wang should log significant innings this year and there's no reason to think he can't pitch throughout a 162 game season, something he didn't do last year.
Joba Chamberlian: This year he'll be in the rotation all year. Last year, he started off in the bullpen, then went down to AAA, then was in the starting rotation, and then back in the bullpen. This year, he'll be in the rotation. For sure. Chamberlian needed AAA help and some experience to fully get into the groove of being a full time starter, and watching him last year, he seemed to get it. With a year under his belt and seemingly developed, Chamberlian should be much better than he was last year.
A rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Chamberlian and Pettitte is still better than a 2008 rotation that included Mussina, Pettitte, Darrell Rasner with Chamberlian, Wang, Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, and Carl Pavano getting significant starting time as well.
Now I'm not saying in this post that the Yankees will make the playoffs or anything like that. I am however saying that David "MVP" Eckstein is, hmmm how to word this nicely wrong?, to think the Yankees can't or won't be better than their 2008 counterparts.
The Yankees Are...Out Of Money???
I was reading the New York Times Online earlier today (yes, I read The Times in addition to baseball stuff) when I came across a mind boggling line from Yankee's GM Brian Cashman in the sports section. At a charity event he recently attended, Cashman fielded various hot topic question that didn't have to do with Torre's book. Naturally, the issue of Manny Ramirez came up:
If you ask me, this is front-page material...especially for New York
doesn't matter that the projected Yankees payroll for 2009 will be lower than that of 2008
Wait...what???? One more time:Cashman took a question about why he was not pursuing (Manny) Ramírez, and he said that he simply could not afford it after spending so freely during the off-season.
“People expect us to get in on Manny, but it’s not going to happen,” Cashman said. “We’re in the nonroster invitee mode.”
He added, “He’s a great player, but when you look at our payroll, we’re tapped.”
"...when you look at our payroll, we’re tapped.”Holy fucking shit Batman. The Yankees have finally spent so much money that they have no more money left.
If you ask me, this is front-page material...especially for New York
**********************
Question: If the Yankee's payroll -- largely thanks to Giambi making more in 2008 than Tex in 2009 and AJ Burnett's large contract being offset by the departures of Mussina and Abreu -- is projected to be less in 2009 than it was in 2008, how are the Yankees out of money?doesn't matter that the projected Yankees payroll for 2009 will be lower than that of 2008
Yankee's 2008 Payroll Efficiency
The numbers in these charts, by the way, are in terms of millions of dollars.
The 2008 Yankee's cumulative net payroll win-value was +12.23 million. The win-profit margin is nothing impressive, given the size of the Yankees payroll (est. at $210 million).
As one might notice, there are very many negative value contracts on the Yankees payroll for the primary roster spots. Carl Pavano, Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi were the most inefficiently paid players on the 2008 squad; each had a win-value profit margin below -$10 million.
Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady and (suprisingly enough) Derek Jeter were the only primary offensive players whose contract values provided a postive win-value profit margin.
It was the Yankee's pitching, anchored by rookie arms, that kept the team's cumulative win-value profit margin positive. Players like Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, who were paid in peanuts, kept payroll way down while providing the team some value along the way. That and Mike Mussina's stellar final year in the majors.
A-Rod, suprisingly enough, wasn't really overpaid in 2008. He provided the Yankees with just enough offese to create $160,000 in win value profit.
What one could conclude from this graph is that the 2008 Yankee's offense was, indeed, highly overpaid.
The 2008 Yankee's cumulative net payroll win-value was +12.23 million. The win-profit margin is nothing impressive, given the size of the Yankees payroll (est. at $210 million).
As one might notice, there are very many negative value contracts on the Yankees payroll for the primary roster spots. Carl Pavano, Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi were the most inefficiently paid players on the 2008 squad; each had a win-value profit margin below -$10 million.
Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady and (suprisingly enough) Derek Jeter were the only primary offensive players whose contract values provided a postive win-value profit margin.
It was the Yankee's pitching, anchored by rookie arms, that kept the team's cumulative win-value profit margin positive. Players like Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, who were paid in peanuts, kept payroll way down while providing the team some value along the way. That and Mike Mussina's stellar final year in the majors.
A-Rod, suprisingly enough, wasn't really overpaid in 2008. He provided the Yankees with just enough offese to create $160,000 in win value profit.
What one could conclude from this graph is that the 2008 Yankee's offense was, indeed, highly overpaid.
MLB Owners, Stop Being A Little Bitch
In the wake of the recent Yankees free agent pick ups including C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett, many baseball owners, including the Braves and Brewers owners, have DEMANDED a salary cap to even the playing field. Their logic is that because the Yankees can spend the most amount of money and get get the best players available, they will have the best team and therefore be able to do well.
As Bill Beane as so accuretely pointed out, you don't need money to have a good product on the field. (I think it's called like "Moneyball" or something). Let's take a look at 2008 and see how teams spent their money:
1) Yankees. Payroll: $209,081,579. Finished: 89-73, 3rd in AL East, missed playoffs
2) Tigers. Payroll: $138,685,197. Finished: 78-88, last in AL Central, missed playoffs
3) Mets. Payroll: $138,293,387. Finished: 89-73, 2nd in NL East, missed playoffs
4) Red Sox. Payroll: $133,440,037. Finished: 95-67, 2nd in AL East, lost in ALCS
5) White Sox. Payroll: $121,152,667. Finished: 88-74, 1st in AL Central, lost in ALDS
6) Angels. Payroll: $119,216,333. Finished: 100-62, 1st in AL West, Lost in ALDS
7) Cubs. Payroll: $118,595,833. Finished: 97-64, 1st in NL Central, Lost in NLDS
8) Dodgers. Payroll: $118,536,038. Finished: 84-78, 1st in NL West, Lost in NLCS
9) Mariners. Payroll: $117,993,982. Finished: 61-101 (worst record in AL), last in AL West, missed playoffs
10) Braves. Payroll: $102,424,018. Finished: 72-90, 4th in NL East, missed playoffs
Here's what the top teams were in baseball during the regular season and their payroll ranking:
1) LA Angels. 100-62. 6th
2) Chicago Cubs. 97-64. 7th
3) Tampa Bay Rays. 97-65. 29th (out of 30)
4) Boston Red Sox. 95-67. 4th
5) Philedelphia Phillies. 92-70. 13th
6) Milwaukee Brewers. 90-72. 15th
7) New York Yankees. 89-73. 1st
8) New York Mets. 89-73. 3rd
9) Chicago White Sox. 88-74. 5th
10) Minnesota Twins. 88-74. 24th.
Here's how the playoffs shaked out and their teams payroll ranking:
Won WS: Philedelphia Phillies. 13th
Lost WS: Tampa Bay Rays. 29th
Lost ALCS: Boston Red Sox. 4th
Lost NLCS: LA Dodgers. 8th
Lost ALDS: Chicago White Sox. 5th
Lost ALDS. LA Angels. 6th
Lost NLDS: Milwaukee Brewers. 15th
Lost NLDS: Chicago Cubs. 7th
Notice anything? There is absolutely no correlation between payroll and how a team performs on the field or in the playoffs. AT ALL! In fact, the team with the second worst payroll made it to the World Series! They had a better regular season record that both the Red Sox and the Yankees and made it father in the playoffs than both of them.
The team with the worst payroll, the Florida Marlins, had a winning record at 88-77 and really was in the payoff hunt for a lot of 2008. The team with the second biggest payroll, the Detroit Tigers, a team that was supposed to have one of the best offenses of all time, finished dead last in their division, behind the Kansas City Royals! The Royals! The Twins with the 24th ranked payroll had the exact same record as the team with the 5th and only lost the division based off of the 163rd game. (As David "MVP" Eckstein would say Small Sample Size! Small Sample Size!)
So for all you owners and GMs and managers or whoever who are pissed at how much the Yankees are spending, SHUT THE HELL UP! Instead, maybe you should look within your organization and make that better instead of wasting your time bithching and moaning.
Source: http://blog.sportscolumn.com/story/2008/4/1/231932/3450/mlb/2008_MLB_Payrolls and http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/standings?date=20080929&type=reg&br=9&year=2008&order=false&st=2
As Bill Beane as so accuretely pointed out, you don't need money to have a good product on the field. (I think it's called like "Moneyball" or something). Let's take a look at 2008 and see how teams spent their money:
1) Yankees. Payroll: $209,081,579. Finished: 89-73, 3rd in AL East, missed playoffs
2) Tigers. Payroll: $138,685,197. Finished: 78-88, last in AL Central, missed playoffs
3) Mets. Payroll: $138,293,387. Finished: 89-73, 2nd in NL East, missed playoffs
4) Red Sox. Payroll: $133,440,037. Finished: 95-67, 2nd in AL East, lost in ALCS
5) White Sox. Payroll: $121,152,667. Finished: 88-74, 1st in AL Central, lost in ALDS
6) Angels. Payroll: $119,216,333. Finished: 100-62, 1st in AL West, Lost in ALDS
7) Cubs. Payroll: $118,595,833. Finished: 97-64, 1st in NL Central, Lost in NLDS
8) Dodgers. Payroll: $118,536,038. Finished: 84-78, 1st in NL West, Lost in NLCS
9) Mariners. Payroll: $117,993,982. Finished: 61-101 (worst record in AL), last in AL West, missed playoffs
10) Braves. Payroll: $102,424,018. Finished: 72-90, 4th in NL East, missed playoffs
Here's what the top teams were in baseball during the regular season and their payroll ranking:
1) LA Angels. 100-62. 6th
2) Chicago Cubs. 97-64. 7th
3) Tampa Bay Rays. 97-65. 29th (out of 30)
4) Boston Red Sox. 95-67. 4th
5) Philedelphia Phillies. 92-70. 13th
6) Milwaukee Brewers. 90-72. 15th
7) New York Yankees. 89-73. 1st
8) New York Mets. 89-73. 3rd
9) Chicago White Sox. 88-74. 5th
10) Minnesota Twins. 88-74. 24th.
Here's how the playoffs shaked out and their teams payroll ranking:
Won WS: Philedelphia Phillies. 13th
Lost WS: Tampa Bay Rays. 29th
Lost ALCS: Boston Red Sox. 4th
Lost NLCS: LA Dodgers. 8th
Lost ALDS: Chicago White Sox. 5th
Lost ALDS. LA Angels. 6th
Lost NLDS: Milwaukee Brewers. 15th
Lost NLDS: Chicago Cubs. 7th
Notice anything? There is absolutely no correlation between payroll and how a team performs on the field or in the playoffs. AT ALL! In fact, the team with the second worst payroll made it to the World Series! They had a better regular season record that both the Red Sox and the Yankees and made it father in the playoffs than both of them.
The team with the worst payroll, the Florida Marlins, had a winning record at 88-77 and really was in the payoff hunt for a lot of 2008. The team with the second biggest payroll, the Detroit Tigers, a team that was supposed to have one of the best offenses of all time, finished dead last in their division, behind the Kansas City Royals! The Royals! The Twins with the 24th ranked payroll had the exact same record as the team with the 5th and only lost the division based off of the 163rd game. (As David "MVP" Eckstein would say Small Sample Size! Small Sample Size!)
So for all you owners and GMs and managers or whoever who are pissed at how much the Yankees are spending, SHUT THE HELL UP! Instead, maybe you should look within your organization and make that better instead of wasting your time bithching and moaning.
Source: http://blog.sportscolumn.com/story/2008/4/1/231932/3450/mlb/2008_MLB_Payrolls and http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/standings?date=20080929&type=reg&br=9&year=2008&order=false&st=2
Curt Schilling Needs A Life
Curt Schilling is quite possibly the most annoying baseball player in the game. He is a rigid moralist (if I hear him brag about how he didn't take steroids to be the player he is/was one more time, I might have to make another post) with an opinion on everything. I literally mean everything. The presidential election, the Iraq War, his superior grammar skills, etc. He also sometimes just blogs about how many MLB rings he has.
In today's blogpost, Schilling basically says what I said yesterday about the Yankees signing of Mark Teixeira being overrated, only with a "we are just as good as the Yanks without Tex" attitude.
Two words, Schilling: as if.
Let's compare 25 men rosters:
1B: Youkilis vs Teixeira -- The Yankees win this matchup because while both first baseman are patient sluggers with relatively high batting averages (if you are into that sort of statistic), Tex clearly has more power (30+ HRs vs 20+)
2B: Pedroia vs Cano -- The Red Sox win this one if Cano continues his career with his 2008 numbers instead of his 2006/2007 numbers. If Cano were to "bounce back," however, he would be a formidible comparison to Pedroia, given his double digit HR power, more-than-competent ability to make contact and well-above-average defense.
SS: Jeter vs Lugo -- Despite his hugely overrated status and steady decline-in-ability as he is aging, Jeter is clearly better than Lugo in all categories other than defense (sabermetrically speaking, Jeter was rated the worst defensive SS in the game last year). Just look at their offensive numbers.
3B: A-rod vs Mike Lowell -- Yankees win this one with no question. A-Rod is one of the best baseball players of all-time and Mike Lowell is old, oft-injured and inconsistent.
OF1: Jason Bay vs Xavier Nady -- The Red Sox win this one because Bay is a 30 HR power guy with a career OPS that hovers around .900. However, Nady, until recently, was utilized as a utility guy throughout his career (much like Mark DeRosa). It took until last year to show what he's capable of doing (and it's actually pretty damn good).
CF: Ellsbury vs Swisher -- This one is a tie, in my opinion. While Ellsbury is clearly the better defender (if for no reason other than the ability to run at fly balls competently), Swisher is clearly more valuable (where it counts) offensively. Besides, Swisher really isn't an outfielder. He's more of a 1B/DH.
OF2: JD Drew vs Johnny "Ex-Sox" Damon -- This one again goes to the Yankees because Damon still walks, smacks extra-base hits and is, above all, consistent. Drew has some great ability but it often comes and goes in streaks. That's all and good for a 162 game season (sample size), but nothing to brag about come playoff time.
DH: Matsui vs Ortiz -- Both are health risks as of late, but Ortiz is clearly the better player in terms of power (which is what you want in a DH). Match point goes to the Red Sox.
SP1: Beckett vs Sabathia -- In 2009, Sabathia's arm will probably fall off, but Beckett is just as likely to get a sidelining blister on his index finger. Assuming both stay healthy, however, Sabathia's career and potential is clearly more distinguished (more K's, less HRs) and more consistent.
SP2: Dice-K vs AJ Burnett -- The Yankees win here if AJ stays healthy because Dice-K's walk rate is going to eventually bite him in the ass. Both have nasty stuff, however, and you could give a good arguement that this one is a toss up.
SP3: Wang vs Lester -- Yanks sweep this matchup, as Wang pitches like an ace. Want is great at inducing ground balls and not walking people, while Lester is just an above-average middle-of-the-rotation kind of guy.
SP4: Joba vs Tim Wakefield -- Considering how good and young Joba is and how old and not-very-good Wakefield is, I'm giving this matchup to the Yankees.
SP5: Phil Hughes vs Clay Buchholz -- The winner of this matchup is indeterminant because both are young pitchers with much hype, great stuff and tons of potential but very limited proven success in the majors. They can either be the next Roy Oswalt or the next Daniel Cabrera. Only time will tell
Relief Core: The Red Sox have a leg up on the Yankees in this category given their profound pitching depth.
CL: Rivera vs Papelbon -- While Papelbon will probably be great for many years to come and Mo Rivers is on his way out of the game, they both posses equally great talent. I have to give the edge to Mo and the Yankees, however, given Rivera's sheer experience in the majors.
All said and done, it's clear that the Yankees pretty much have better team all around. Outside of the DH position, second base and a corner outfield position, the Yankees have equally good, if not better, players at every turn. Despite his comment that he is "glad Youk is staying at first and Mike is at third," there is no way in hell he could look me in the eye and say Youk wouldn't be a better 3B than Lowell and Tex wouldn't be a better 1B than Youk. Such a claim defies all logic and reason.
In today's blogpost, Schilling basically says what I said yesterday about the Yankees signing of Mark Teixeira being overrated, only with a "we are just as good as the Yanks without Tex" attitude.
Two words, Schilling: as if.
Let's compare 25 men rosters:
1B: Youkilis vs Teixeira -- The Yankees win this matchup because while both first baseman are patient sluggers with relatively high batting averages (if you are into that sort of statistic), Tex clearly has more power (30+ HRs vs 20+)
2B: Pedroia vs Cano -- The Red Sox win this one if Cano continues his career with his 2008 numbers instead of his 2006/2007 numbers. If Cano were to "bounce back," however, he would be a formidible comparison to Pedroia, given his double digit HR power, more-than-competent ability to make contact and well-above-average defense.
SS: Jeter vs Lugo -- Despite his hugely overrated status and steady decline-in-ability as he is aging, Jeter is clearly better than Lugo in all categories other than defense (sabermetrically speaking, Jeter was rated the worst defensive SS in the game last year). Just look at their offensive numbers.
3B: A-rod vs Mike Lowell -- Yankees win this one with no question. A-Rod is one of the best baseball players of all-time and Mike Lowell is old, oft-injured and inconsistent.
OF1: Jason Bay vs Xavier Nady -- The Red Sox win this one because Bay is a 30 HR power guy with a career OPS that hovers around .900. However, Nady, until recently, was utilized as a utility guy throughout his career (much like Mark DeRosa). It took until last year to show what he's capable of doing (and it's actually pretty damn good).
CF: Ellsbury vs Swisher -- This one is a tie, in my opinion. While Ellsbury is clearly the better defender (if for no reason other than the ability to run at fly balls competently), Swisher is clearly more valuable (where it counts) offensively. Besides, Swisher really isn't an outfielder. He's more of a 1B/DH.
OF2: JD Drew vs Johnny "Ex-Sox" Damon -- This one again goes to the Yankees because Damon still walks, smacks extra-base hits and is, above all, consistent. Drew has some great ability but it often comes and goes in streaks. That's all and good for a 162 game season (sample size), but nothing to brag about come playoff time.
DH: Matsui vs Ortiz -- Both are health risks as of late, but Ortiz is clearly the better player in terms of power (which is what you want in a DH). Match point goes to the Red Sox.
SP1: Beckett vs Sabathia -- In 2009, Sabathia's arm will probably fall off, but Beckett is just as likely to get a sidelining blister on his index finger. Assuming both stay healthy, however, Sabathia's career and potential is clearly more distinguished (more K's, less HRs) and more consistent.
SP2: Dice-K vs AJ Burnett -- The Yankees win here if AJ stays healthy because Dice-K's walk rate is going to eventually bite him in the ass. Both have nasty stuff, however, and you could give a good arguement that this one is a toss up.
SP3: Wang vs Lester -- Yanks sweep this matchup, as Wang pitches like an ace. Want is great at inducing ground balls and not walking people, while Lester is just an above-average middle-of-the-rotation kind of guy.
SP4: Joba vs Tim Wakefield -- Considering how good and young Joba is and how old and not-very-good Wakefield is, I'm giving this matchup to the Yankees.
SP5: Phil Hughes vs Clay Buchholz -- The winner of this matchup is indeterminant because both are young pitchers with much hype, great stuff and tons of potential but very limited proven success in the majors. They can either be the next Roy Oswalt or the next Daniel Cabrera. Only time will tell
Relief Core: The Red Sox have a leg up on the Yankees in this category given their profound pitching depth.
CL: Rivera vs Papelbon -- While Papelbon will probably be great for many years to come and Mo Rivers is on his way out of the game, they both posses equally great talent. I have to give the edge to Mo and the Yankees, however, given Rivera's sheer experience in the majors.
All said and done, it's clear that the Yankees pretty much have better team all around. Outside of the DH position, second base and a corner outfield position, the Yankees have equally good, if not better, players at every turn. Despite his comment that he is "glad Youk is staying at first and Mike is at third," there is no way in hell he could look me in the eye and say Youk wouldn't be a better 3B than Lowell and Tex wouldn't be a better 1B than Youk. Such a claim defies all logic and reason.
The 2008 Yankees
The Bright One and I were discussing the "sickness" of the 2008 Yankees and seemed to come to the conclusion that -- in the wake of the Mark Teixeira signing -- they aren't really that much better than the 2006/2007 Yankees. Think about it. Star player like A-Rod (who is awesome) and Derek Jeter (who is overrated and declining in ability fast) are each one year older and in the back years of their prime.
Out is Jason Giambi -- who averaged 35 HRs and 100+ walks a season -- and in is Mark Teixeira -- who averages 36 HRs and 79 walks a season. Not a huge "upgrade" outside of years left until retirement (Giambi yielder higher production per AB for the Yankees than Teixeira has in his career). The comparable power comes with a parity of Batting Average for Pitch Selection (the latter of which corrolates higher to consistent Runs Created). So despite what you think, Tex isn't exactly the biggest upgrade in the world for the Yanks.
Out is Bobby Abreu -- who averages 22+ HRs and 104 walks per season -- and in is Nick Swisher -- who averages 28 HRs and 91 walks per season. Both have great plate discipline, but Abreu is clearly better. Also, despite the fact that Abreu is probably nearing the last several years of his career, I can't say Swisher's poor defense in the outfield and streaky hitting are properly compensated by the fact that he's entering his prime years. Also, while Swisher may have more raw HR power, Abreu has shown a much better ability to scoop up XBH's (Abreu's career SLG is 48 pts higher than Swisher's). Abreu's replacement may not be a downgrade, but he's not an upgrade either.
In is CC Sabathia, who logged 253+ innings last year. Even though he's got the same "work horse" label as such players as Carlos Zambrano and Aaron Harang, his heavy arm abuse by the Brewers is nothing short of unsettling. As the Pitcher Abuse Point (PAP) system indicates, it's what pitchers do when tired and fatigued that causes long term injury. At the very least, those four consecutive three-days rest, 99-105-108-122 pitch starts in September can't be good for Sabathia's health. Recall that after logging in a career his 241+ innings in 2007, Sabathia started off the year in horrible, fatigued form (Ks down, BBs up, HR/9 up, etc.). Note further than fellow workhorse Aaron Harang had a phenominal season going into late May, when Dusty Baker -- in classic Dusty Baker fashion -- decided to pitch him for four innings following a 103 pitch outing just two days prior. Baker then made Harang pitch 5.2 innings three days later. While Harang's arm took a little over a month and a half to fall off (extended DL stint), his peripherals plummeted immediately (Ks down, BBs up, HR/9 up). Harang ultimately ended the season with his highest ERA and lowest numbers of Ks since 2004 (his first full season in the majors). To the Yanks, I just say "buyer beware."
Out is Mike Mussina, who had a fantastic season to retire on. His career 3.68 ERA and <1.2 WHIP will surely be missed.
In is AJ Burnett who can only stay healthy in contract years. Nuff said.
Out is Pettite, whose SP3/SP4 career with the Yankees has been well above average and nothing short of reliable.
In are prospects Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy who "they" say have great stuff, but failed to help the Yankees win a single game in 2008 between the two of them. Their production potential may be high, but the inexperience, lack of command and before-their-prime status make Huges and Kennedy questionable pieces in the "Yankees dream rotation."
While i'm not saying the Yankees won't win their division this year, I am saying they are not that much better of a team than they have been in the past few years. Since The Rays are going to probably be better this year (considering the increased major league experience among the youthful squad), the Yanks are going to have to do more than sign a bunch of big names with big questions behind them to become AL Champ shoe-ins. They'll probably make the playoffs, though.
Out is Jason Giambi -- who averaged 35 HRs and 100+ walks a season -- and in is Mark Teixeira -- who averages 36 HRs and 79 walks a season. Not a huge "upgrade" outside of years left until retirement (Giambi yielder higher production per AB for the Yankees than Teixeira has in his career). The comparable power comes with a parity of Batting Average for Pitch Selection (the latter of which corrolates higher to consistent Runs Created). So despite what you think, Tex isn't exactly the biggest upgrade in the world for the Yanks.
Out is Bobby Abreu -- who averages 22+ HRs and 104 walks per season -- and in is Nick Swisher -- who averages 28 HRs and 91 walks per season. Both have great plate discipline, but Abreu is clearly better. Also, despite the fact that Abreu is probably nearing the last several years of his career, I can't say Swisher's poor defense in the outfield and streaky hitting are properly compensated by the fact that he's entering his prime years. Also, while Swisher may have more raw HR power, Abreu has shown a much better ability to scoop up XBH's (Abreu's career SLG is 48 pts higher than Swisher's). Abreu's replacement may not be a downgrade, but he's not an upgrade either.
In is CC Sabathia, who logged 253+ innings last year. Even though he's got the same "work horse" label as such players as Carlos Zambrano and Aaron Harang, his heavy arm abuse by the Brewers is nothing short of unsettling. As the Pitcher Abuse Point (PAP) system indicates, it's what pitchers do when tired and fatigued that causes long term injury. At the very least, those four consecutive three-days rest, 99-105-108-122 pitch starts in September can't be good for Sabathia's health. Recall that after logging in a career his 241+ innings in 2007, Sabathia started off the year in horrible, fatigued form (Ks down, BBs up, HR/9 up, etc.). Note further than fellow workhorse Aaron Harang had a phenominal season going into late May, when Dusty Baker -- in classic Dusty Baker fashion -- decided to pitch him for four innings following a 103 pitch outing just two days prior. Baker then made Harang pitch 5.2 innings three days later. While Harang's arm took a little over a month and a half to fall off (extended DL stint), his peripherals plummeted immediately (Ks down, BBs up, HR/9 up). Harang ultimately ended the season with his highest ERA and lowest numbers of Ks since 2004 (his first full season in the majors). To the Yanks, I just say "buyer beware."
Out is Mike Mussina, who had a fantastic season to retire on. His career 3.68 ERA and <1.2 WHIP will surely be missed.
In is AJ Burnett who can only stay healthy in contract years. Nuff said.
Out is Pettite, whose SP3/SP4 career with the Yankees has been well above average and nothing short of reliable.
In are prospects Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy who "they" say have great stuff, but failed to help the Yankees win a single game in 2008 between the two of them. Their production potential may be high, but the inexperience, lack of command and before-their-prime status make Huges and Kennedy questionable pieces in the "Yankees dream rotation."
While i'm not saying the Yankees won't win their division this year, I am saying they are not that much better of a team than they have been in the past few years. Since The Rays are going to probably be better this year (considering the increased major league experience among the youthful squad), the Yanks are going to have to do more than sign a bunch of big names with big questions behind them to become AL Champ shoe-ins. They'll probably make the playoffs, though.
